Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan. A threat to regional security.

1 | P a g e
Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan: A threat to
Regional Security
About the Author: Syed Bilal Ahmed is a graduate from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad in
the field of Defence and Strategic Studies. He is currently working as a research internee at
Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.
Abstract:
ISIS has become the most terrifying and strongest non-state military organization in the world.
Their presence in Afghanistan is a thing to be worried about. This research includes their
objectives, aims, goals, strategies and also the counter strategies. ISIS is a threat to South Asian
region so there must be some serious steps are expected by the regional countries to contain and
tackle ISIS from penetrating into this region.
1. Introduction:
The word “Caliphate” has its importance and worth for the Muslims all over the world. After
World War I, the Ottoman Empire fell and Muslims lost their centralized power station. The
concept of nationalism prevailed and Muslim Nation States appeared on the map. This process was
fastened by de-colonization. Imperialism ended and nation states started to emerge on the map of
the world. Since that time period, Muslim states never tried to regain their centralized power;
however, they created a platform known as Organization of Islamic Countries (OIC) to address
issues inside the Muslim states as well as their relationship with the other countries of the world.
Muslims, as a matter of fact, divided into various sects and thus sectarianism. Hence, the concept

2 | P a g e
of single Muslim State died but not the idea of Muslim Caliphate. This idea was fantasized by
many Muslims because this word held a great meaning to the Muslims.
The sectarianism present inside Muslims in not only because of their difference of opinion but also
because of rigidness and strictness present among some of the practitioners. They are known
simply as “Hardliners”. Hence, the hardliners are those who never compromises on any of the
religious principles even if they are interpretations which could be right or wrong. Hence, it creates
difficulty to handle such elements. These elements could be found in every Muslim community
even inside Europe. However, hardliners are affected by the ideology they adopt to practice. Here
comes the impact of that ideology that creates impact on the minds of its practitioners. Therefore,
the most important thing that emerges is the ideology that creates impact on the mindset of its
practitioners. This psychological impact drives its practitioners towards implementation. This
general observation can be found in every religion and school of thought.
Most of the terrorist organizations in the world practice Islam as a religion but their set of beliefs
is way different than all the other Muslims in the world. Al-Qaeda being a global terrorist
organization, has been damaging the stature of Islam for far too long. It doesn’t mean that all it
represents the true face of religion Islam. They but represent their interpretation of various
objectives of the religion that are condemned by many other schools of thought. Hence, the game
starts and ends with the ideology. Ideology can make or break the conflict.
It is believed that terrorist ideologies are even more attractive. Al-Qaeda could be an example but
the best example in this regard is Islamic State of Iraq and Levant. The ideology of Al-Qaeda has
become challenging not only for the neighbouring countries but also for the world because their
ideology is spreading like a virus. The downfall of Al-Qaeda after the killing of Osama bin Laden
also provided them with the space. Al-Qaeda’ fall back gave them the opportunity to step into their
shoes. The desperate fighters of Al-Qaeda in Iraq and Syria have joined ISIS in great numbers.
There is also a huge difference between the Like Al-Qaeda, the terrorists of ISIS have more
resources and they are enhancing their area of operation. Several small scale organizations have
joined them and one can predict the allegiance of more organizations is going to be towards them
soon. Therefore, a rivalry is accepted in this regard.
The picture is getting clear. Afghanistan is important for Al-Qaeda as well as ISIS. The question
is why? And answer is that from Afghanistan, both the organizations can acquire man power.

3 | P a g e
Being a warring country, Afghan government has not a strict control over its borders which
provides ease in terrorist, weapons and money trafficking. Hence, ISIS wants to knock out Al-
Qaeda and Afghan Taliban from Afghanistan in order to achieve their larger objective i.e.
Caliphate all over the Islamic World. Al-Qaeda and Afghan Taliban are the hurdle in its way and
the fight has been started. The time will decide who is going to hold Afghanistan but the odds are
in the favour of the hosts because Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda, both have their roots deep inside
the territory of Afghanistan. Therefore, it is important to learn the ideals of ISIS and their chances
against the Afghan Taliban and Al-Qaeda. For that purpose, study of their origin, their skills, their
ideology, their chances and their way of conducting affairs is must.
1.1. Emergence of ISIS or Daesh:
The tracks of ISIS leads back to Iraq when USA invaded Iraq. Al-Qaeda being a global terrorist
organization, had its roots in Iraq. Abu Mosab Al-Zarqawi, who worked with Al-Qaeda in
Afghanistan, came to Iraq from Afghanistan to participate in the war against US forces in 2003.1
In the same year, he set the foundation of a sub-group which was named “Jamaat Al-Tauheed Wal-
Jihaad”. This group was working direct under his command and he began to rise as a major stake
holder among the other terrorist leaders. The group JTJ started working under Al-Qaeda but in
2004, Abu Musa Al-Zarqawi swore loyalty to Osama bin Laden and became the head of Al-Qaeda
operations in Iraq. With his rise, the JTJ also became more powerful and he changed the name of
JTJ to Tanẓīm Qāʻidat al-Jihād fī Bilād al-Rāfidayn, "The Organization of Jihad's Base
in Mesopotamia (OJBM)".2 In 2006, this group became the strongest among the other terrorist
groups. All the Sunni extremist groups were working more or less for Al-Qaeda. The capture of
Saddam Hussain and killing of many Shias during operations launched by US forces forced all the
insurgent groups to become united. Therefore, Zarqawi ordered OJBM to establish contact with
all the other groups working in Iraq to make an alliance. The OJBM did the same and most of the
groups joined them or came under one flag. This alliance was named as Mujahideen Shura Council.
1 Laub, Z. and J. Masters (2014). "IslamicStatein Iraq and Greater Syria." The Council on Foreign Relations.June 12.
2 ISIS-civilians-non-state-actors,http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gpdatabase/gpcountry.php?id=77&regionSelect=10-
Middle_East#

4 | P a g e
It was established in January 2006. This allied terrorist group became the most powerful group
and it outlawed the influence of other groups. Therefore, almost all the insurgent groups joined
Mujahideen Shura Council.3 In the same year, Zarqawi was killed by US forces. This was a major
setback for Mujahideen Shura Council and they had to take serious counter measures. Therefore,
they decided to launch a combined terrorist front. They named it Islamic State in Iraq.4
The new organization with such an attractive name began with very less population as well as
logistic support. Both the requirements were fulfilled by the Iraqi government. Thanks to their
policies towards Sunnis. Their discriminatory policies with their Sunni population provided the
opportunity to Islamic State and they seized that opportunity with both hands. ISI propagated their
ideology towards suppressed Sunnis in Iraq who were in search of freedom to live according to
their will. The propaganda of ISI worked as expectedly and the Sunnis started to join them readily.
Their strength raised from few to thousands within two, three years. The Iraqi government had no
idea that this small terrorist organization would become a threat to their existence. 2008 onwards,
ISI started their war against the State of Iraq and their ally Kurds. With the passage of time, they
enhanced their area of operation along with their propagation of ideology among Sunni tribes of
Iraq. It is quite amazing that unlike any non-state actor, the active beginning of ISI’s war against
State of Iraq was more or less conventional in nature. The rules of guerilla warfare seems to be
failed in this case study. They adopted pure military strategies primarily because of the
involvement of army officials who had experience and skill. They were the soldiers who were
Sunnis and hence kicked out from the army by Shia government. However, their initial activities
did not explain their larger objectives. Their larger objectives came into existence with the
rebellion in Syria and their interest towards Syrian territory.
Islamic State in Iraq had its strong hold in North Western part of Iraq when the Syrian Crisis
emerged. ISI supported the freedom fighters of Free Syrian Army who were also heavily funded
by USA.5 This funding was meant to over throw the Bashar Al-Assad Regime in Syria but it all
went wrong when Iraqi fighters joined Free Syrian Army.6 Soon they earned a huge influence in
3 Ibid.
4 "Isis, Isil or Da'ish? What to call militants in Iraq". BBC News. 24 June 2014. Retrieved 16 August 2014.
5 Laub, Z. and J. Masters (2014). "IslamicStatein Iraq and Greater Syria." The Council on Foreign Relations.June 12.
6 Barrett, R. (2014)."Foreign fighters in Syria." The Soufan Group, http://soufangroup. com/wp-
content/uploads/2014/06/TSG-Foreign-Fighters-in-Syria.pdf:6.

5 | P a g e
the organization and most of its troops joined Islamic State. US funds, weapons and arms went in
the hands of the fighters of Islamic State. With all this power, they crushed all their rivals in Syria
and began direct fight against Bashar Al-Assad forces and they changed the name of their
organization to Islamic State of Iraq and Levant or Daesh. They got enough man power when the
soldiers of Saddam Hussein’s Army started to join them in great numbers. These were not only
the soldiers but also trained engineers, officers, Special Forces personnel, propaganda specialists
etc. who aided them in achieving their goal that is “Islamic Caliphate in Iraq and Syria”.
Now days, the situation is absolutely a maze. Bashar Al-Assad fighting against rebels as well as
ISIL militants. ISIL militants fighting against Syrian Army, Kurds in Iraq, Iraqi forces, Iranian
forces, US forces and somehow managing to survive the air strikes launched by several regional
and extra regional countries. The conflict is mostly based on the ideology but one must understand
other economic aspects in one’s mind. ISIS’ ideology has been attracting Sunni Muslims from all
around the globe for a very long time. They are killing Shia’s and Yazidi’s in Iraq and Syria. The
only no-state organization capable enough to deter them is Al-Qaeda and they have also turned
against them by beginning their moves in Afghanistan.
1.2. Differences between ISIS and Al-Qaeda:
Al-Qaeda, in fact, brought forth ISIS. Abu Mosab Al-Zarqawi and his ideology has created an ever
lasting impact on the minds of the fighters of ISIS. His acts show that he was not a big follower of
the ideology of Al-Qaeda. Rather, he wanted to make his own and he succeeded in doing so. Al-
Qaeda’s ideology. He has been regarded The Imam” among the fighters of ISIS. He has given a
unique set of beliefs to his followers which are strictly forbidden in the religion Islam. Hence, ISIS
is commonly known as “Takfiris” or “Khwarijeen” among all the other Muslims who do not
believe in them. Clearly they are destroying the image of Islam and its most important concept
which is Humanity. Killing innocents and then giving justifications according to Quran and
Hadeeth is absolutely saddening. Al-Qaeda has never done the killings of one particular race

6 | P a g e
anywhere in the world on such a mass scale like the fighters of ISIS are currently doing against
Yazidis and Kurds of Iraq. There are several other things which extricates both the organizations.7
Starting with the ideology, almost every Al-Qaeda member belongs to the “Deobandi” sect and
they all are hardliners. Whereas, ISIS fighters follow “Salafism (Takfiri)”. According to this
particular sect, they consider all the other Muslims as wrong or improper followers of Islam. They
consider themselves as the best who are chosen by the God Almighty to perform jihad against the
enemies of Islam. Al-Qaeda’s propaganda was considered to be very good when Osama bin Laden
was around. After him, their propaganda campaign became very weak. This gap was filled by ISIS.
They propagated their message brilliantly. Their Salafi ideology became popular when they
wrapped it in the cover of Jihad. They used modern propaganda techniques as they got the experts
from Saddam Hussein’s Army. This gave them advantage over Al-Qaeda and that is how they
swept all of its members from Iraq. Now Al-Qaeda has a very limited representation left in Iraq.
Most of its members have joined ISIS. This also created a sense of enmity between these two
organizations.
ISIS is also different from Al-Qaeda in their war techniques, funding operations and brutality. An
important feature that differs ISIS from Al-Qaeda is that they have never attacked US or European
main land.8 This is quite amazing because it shows that ISIS is still lacking in its global range
especially when it comes to the west. No doubt, Western fighter have been joining ISIS for the
past few years but still ISIS has no real presence in USA and Europe.9 On the operational front,
Al-Qaeda is purely a terrorist organization that works according to the modified techniques of
guerrilla warfare. On the other hand, ISIS is not a terrorist group.10 They do promote terror but
their structure is far better than any other non-state actors group. They have a strong militia,
government, territory, population support, finances, education as well as health infrastructure.
They govern a large territory in both Syria and Iraq. They have plenty of resources which they use
7 Wong, K. (2014)."Five ways ISIS,al Qaeda differ." The Hill.
8 Bertrand, N. (2015). "We're getting to know justhow different ISIS is fromal Qaeda." Business Insider.
9 Ibid.
10 Cronin,A. K. (2015)."ISIS Is Not a TerroristGroup." Foreign Affairs 94(2):87-98.

7 | P a g e
in their favour. The soldiers of this organization is well paid and they earn good salary every
month. The troops are loyal and every one believes in the objectives of ISIS.
Taliban in Afghanistan cannot pledge allegiance to Abu Bakar Al-Baghdadi because they consider
Mullah Muhammad Omer a righteous Ameer-al-Momineen. Taliban government in Afghanistan
was accepted by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia but no country would ever recognize Islamic State as
a de jure state.
Al-Qaeda’s ideology is Global Jihad without having a centralized power point. They think it is too
vulnerable for their enemies to attack and hit them. Therefore, they prefer guerrilla war, precisely
hit and run. Establishment of a government to run affairs according to their ideology is their
ultimate goal but they are far away to achieve it. On the other hand, reverse order could be seen in
the case of ISIS. They have established a government and they are running their affairs according
to their will. They are fighting against their rivals like a conventional military force and their
military strategies are helping them to maintain their hold over the captured territory. Iraqi as well
as Syrian forces are not capable to fight against them. Now, international community has launched
serious strikes against them but still, it is very difficult to crush them completely.11
1.3. Rivalry between Al-Qaeda and ISIS:
ISIS has knocked Al-Qaeda out of Iraq and Syria. The rivalry was not surfaced until ISIS started
to take interest in Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban, being hand in hand with Al-Qaeda, do not want
any other group in Afghanistan which could be able to challenge them. Afghan Taliban does not
have global ambitions. They are centralized and localized; hence, they cannot bear ISIS in
Afghanistan because it would challenge their claim over Afghanistan. Afghan Taliban knows that
ISIS has opportunity and ability to strike them down in Afghanistan as they have an appealing
ideology. Therefore, they started direct combats against ISIS in order to contain them in the very
beginning. The rivalry is also there because some of the Taliban fighters have joined ISIS and
11 Barrett, R. (2014)."Foreign fighters in Syria." The Soufan Group, http://soufangroup. com/wp-
content/uploads/2014/06/TSG-Foreign-Fighters-in-Syria.pdf:6.

8 | P a g e
more are expected to come. The situation is not clear yet but one can predict a gory conflict
between these two rival organizations in Afghanistan.
2. Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan:
Since the declaration of Caliphate, ISIS is showing its capability to attract people all over the
world. They have shown their global ambitions. The unification of all Islamic countries under their
banner is what they are aiming for. Hence, ISIS is a potential threat.
12
2.1 Rise of ISIS in Afghanistan:
In late September 2014, the first fight between ISIS sympathizers and Afghan National forces
appeared on the screen.13 In late September 2014, fierce battles raged between Afghan security
forces and insurgents reported to be associated with the Islamic State in the Arjistan district of
Ghazni province.14 At the time, Afghan officials reported that the insurgents had raised the black
12Rana,Muhammad Amir. “The Dawn”, July 04,2014. http://www.dawn.com/news/1116799
13 LWJ STAFF, “Mappingthe emergence of the Islamic Statein Afghanistan”, Long War Journals,March 05,2015
http://hiload.org/surf/svKLuxrsQzX102icoqxM0_xx-03_iS_tis_dnW98uuc-
6M2ejL0qcWKobOJA7eg11b3vud2SBNtSkXBK8cxigx8NezmyJEIuCVieEEl-QG6jYtHMzHD4sUrT-35-
4JBVT7xeYhmcE4AHkt9q26qQ
14 Ibid.

9 | P a g e
flag of the Islamic State and were burning down homes and beheading captured security forces
and local residents alike. The incident in Arjistan is mired in controversy, as local Afghan officials
allegedly recanted their versions of events and admitted to embellishing the presence of Islamic
State fighters as a ploy to obtain more resources.15 It should also be noted that in early February
2015, the Chief of Police for Ghazni denied that the Islamic State had created a presence in the
area, stating that the insurgents fighting against the Afghan Government were local Taliban
members.16
The reports started to surface in January 2015 that ISIS is penetrating inside Afghanistan.
Provincial Taliban Leader Walayat Khorasani has pledged alliance towards the ISIS and he was
appointed Governor of Khorasan province.17 Under his command, the desperate Taliban fighters
and new recruits started to join ISIS. However, the numbers game is not in favour of ISIS fighters
in Afghanistan and they have to work a lot harder than that in order to counter Afghan Taliban and
Afghan National Security Forces. Their operation area is small. They are striking at limited targets
but with their potential, one can predict their strategy to grow numbers. They are concentrating on
the Eastern provinces of Afghanistan where the Taliban influence can be handled.18
15 Ibid.
16 Ibid.
17 Stoltzfoos, Rachel. ISIS Takes It To The Taliban In Afghanistan, August 11, 2015.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/11/isis-takes-it-to-the-taliban-in-afghanistan/#ixzz3naga7ZDd
18 Ed. The ISIS Bandwagon: Afghanistan and Pakistan, March 06, 2015 http://www.eaglespeak.us/2015/03/the-isis-
bandwagon-afghanistan-andhtml

10 | P a g e
19
ISIS leaders in Afghanistan knows that they have to win the hearts and minds of the people.
Therefore, they are providing salaries to their fighters. Almost all the tactical maneuvers done by
ISIS is same as they have done in Iraq and Syria so far but on a very small scale.
2.2 ISIS support groups in Afghanistan:
In January 2015, a video surfaced in which TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) leaders along with
few Afghan nationalists were pledging allegiance to Islamic State. Few days after the release of
this video, Islamic State announced its expansion of Khorasan Province and made Hafiz Saeed
Khan as Wali (Governor) of Khorasan Province. The Islamic State also appointed former
Guantanamo Bay detainee and senior Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim as Khan’s
deputy.20 Mullah Abdul Rauf Khadim is responsible for the initial activities of ISIS in Pakistan’s
tribal areas. He was appointed in Hilmand,, Afghanistan where the Taliban have their local support
19 Ibid.
20 Ibid

11 | P a g e
as well. Soon, the clashes broke out between his supporters and Taliban which till date are present.
Yet no conflicting party has its complete influence over whole province. In southwestern
Afghanistan, former Taliban insurgents who defected to the Islamic State established a training
camp in Farah province in mid-January and were reportedly operating between Bakwa and Khak-
e Safid districts.21 The Islamic State faction in Farah was reportedly led by two brothers, Abdul
Malik, who was also known as Mansur, and Abdul Raziq.22
Afghan security agencies have estimated that militants who pledged alliance to ISIS are spreading
in almost every province of Afghanistan; however, their numbers are not to be worried about.
Afghan officials in Ghazni and Paktika Provinces announced in mid-January that hundreds of
foreign fighters associated with the Islamic State had recently entered areas of eastern Afghanistan
posing as refugees.23 According to the officials, some 200 foreign nationals had entered the Nawa
and Gilan districts of Ghazni and raised the black flag, and 850 families, including Arabs,
Pakistanis, and Chechens, had entered Pakitka and Zabul provinces disguised as refugees, some of
whom later established households in the Nawbahar, Ab Band, and Shamulzai districts of Zabul.24
Hence, the situation here shows that ISIS is trying to penetrate and they could get success if more
and more people would join their cause. Their small scale operations also show that they are just
getting started and it is easy to crush them in the beginning before they could be able to cause
severe damages.
2.3 ISIS Command Structure in Afghanistan:
In early 2015, ISIS announced its leadership in Afghanistan. Most of the members of their core
committee are former members of Al-Qaeda. This has given a strategic advantage to ISIS over Al-
Qaeda and Taliban in Afghanistan. These members knew the tactics that could be played by
Taliban so they are well aware of Taliban’s game plan.
21 Ibid.
22 Ibid.
23 Ibid.
24 Ibid.

12 | P a g e
25
These are the current members of ISIS who have been active in Afghanistan and Pakistan for the
since the beginning of this year. Pakistan’s operation against terrorists is showing its advantages
as it has been very helpful to contain terrorism and terrorists inside the operation area since the
beginning of this operation. That is the reason why ISIS has not been able to work freely inside
Pakistan. Pakistani authorities have given their verdict very clearly that they will not let ISIS enter
Pakistan. However, ISIS chain of command for Afghanistan is based upon highly experienced
militants. They know how to perform their role. They are moving with slow but gradual pace. They
are not in any hurry because they know it would be quite harmful for their cause. People from
Central Asia are joining them too. It would also give them access to Central Asian states which
25 Ibid.

13 | P a g e
Afghan Taliban does not have. Hence, opportunities are there for ISIS and their military history
shows that they always avail themselves off the opportunities.
3. ISIS’ penetration and its potential in Afghanistan as a regional
threat:
It is a fact that ISIS is present and active in Afghanistan. Their larger objective is the establishment
of Khorasan province of Islamic State. For this purpose, they have to knock Taliban as well as
Afghan government out so that they could achieve their objectives. While considering their
potential, they have the ability to create difficulties which would not be a good sign for the region
which is already under huge stress of terrorism and extremism. ISIS is, in fact, a potential threat
to South Asian as well as Central Asian region.
3.1. ISIS strong hold in Afghanistan:
ISIS fighters are spread all over Afghanistan. In terms of stronghold, they have none. Their rivals
like Afghan government and Taliban could take an advantage of this. That is why ISIS has started
to develop and maintain their stronghold inside Afghanistan. They have started bringing their
fighting lines closer to one another. They also established a training camp in South Afghanistan
where they train new recruits to fight. The given picture shows the areas where ISIS is
concentrating.

14 | P a g e
26
This picture also shows that Taliban-ISIS clashes are as its peak. Several clashes have been
reported in the media in which both the groups suffered casualties.27
3.2. ISIS game plan:
ISIS founded a new set of military strategies that could be termed as “conventio-guerrilla” military
strategies. Their set of military strategies contain both aspects of warfare in it. In Iraq and Syria,
ISIS fights like a conventional military force but they operate according to the guerrilla strategies
26 Ibid.
27 Wyk, Tom. Could it get any worse? Taliban look set to clash with ISIS as Mullah Omar's successor vows to
continue the war in Afghanistan, Daily Mail,August01, 2015.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3182445/Could-worse-Taliban-look-set-clash-ISIS-Mullah-Omar-s-
successor-vows-continue-war-Afghanistan.html#ixzz3neEseOVd

15 | P a g e
of warfare by making their moves strictly localized by their propaganda campaign of hearts and
minds. There they have local support with them which provide ease to them when they operate.
On the other hand, situation in Afghanistan is in reverse order. Here they lack numerical strength,
resources and mass public support whereas Taliban enjoy all these privileges. Therefore, their
game plan in Afghanistan is totally different from what they have been playing in Iraq and Syria
primarily because of these factors. Therefore, it is very difficult to say anything about their game
plan. However, one can see a pattern they are following. They are not moving swiftly and silently.
They are trying to get local support as well as support from other terrorist groups. They are not
involved in any mass scale activities against the government. A guess is that they are currently
working to acquire more numbers and resources. Hence, their game plan would be wait and see
policy as war is going on between Afghan Taliban and the government. They would be seeking of
an opportunity. They will strike when there is an opportunity. Till then, they are happy to fight
small skirmishes against both of their rivals. To overcome the lack of resources, they are now
involved in criminal activities like robbing banks, kidnapping for ransom and drug smuggling.
There is a marginal possibility that Afghan government could use ISIS against Taliban as a counter.
If this happens, it will give them irrepressible forte. Afghan government still holds the key moves
in this regard.
3.3. Stance ofPakistanas a next door neighbor:
Pakistan thinks that ISIS may shake hand with Afghan Taliban in order to remove Afghan
government. Pakistan is also concerned that the death of Mullah Omer has created a big space.
Many factions of Taliban are angry and they could join ISIS to avenge themselves.28 There is a
common belief that Pakistan still control the Afghan Taliban but this control is merely influence
which is present in Taliban Shura. Pakistan’s stance is clear that it will never allow any other
terrorist or extremist organization to grow and create difficulties. Pakistan is spending heavily on
its operation against terrorism. Pakistan wants to conduct bilateral talks between Afghan Taliban
and Afghan government to end their clash politically. Otherwise, Pakistan thinks that the joining
28 Army Chief’s statement atRoyal United Institute for Defence and Security studies,Express onlinenewspaper,
October 04, 2015. http://www.express.pk/story/396451/

16 | P a g e
of Afghan factions in ISIS may result in their alliance and this would be the most dangerous
possibility in this regard.29
3.4. New Wave of Terrorism and Extremism:
Obviously, a new terrorist organization would bring terror. ISIS is even more lethal than Taliban
or Al-Qaeda. Afghan Taliban are only concerned with fight against Afghan government, NATO
and ISAF forces. They are not involved in promoting sectarianism in Afghanistan. Whereas the
same cannot be said about ISIS. Their ideology promotes sectarianism and in case they prevail,
Sectarianism would prevail too. Hence, the new wave of terrorism and extremism is at the door
step of this region. The front line states Pakistan and Afghanistan are already fighting against them.
It would be quite difficult for both the countries to fight against yet another wave of terrorism until
or unless they come to the same page.
3.5. Co-Strategy of Afghanistan and Pakistan:
Well in terms of any cooperation regarding the matter of ISIS, there is none between Pakistan and
Afghanistan. Both the countries rely on the blame game. There is tension between Pakistan and
Afghanistan. Afghanistan is involved in cross border attacks while it blame Pakistan that it is
exporting terrorist into the Afghanistan territory.30 In this environment, any hope for co-strategy
is vague. However, Pakistani government is trying to solve these issues with Afghanistan. An
example in this regard is the talks between Afghan government and Taliban which were held
because of the efforts of Pakistan. Afghan government should regard these efforts done by Pakistan
and both the countries should come to the common point that is joint operation against terrorists.
Together, Pakistan and Afghanistan can handle ISIS but no progress can be seen in this regard.
Both countries are moving on their separate paths.
29 Ibid.
30 Ed., Cross border attacks: Is Pakistan mulling over surgical strikes on Afghanistan, September 25, 2015.
http://pk.shafaqna.com/EN/14979

17 | P a g e
3.6. Threat to other regional countries:
ISIS penetration in Afghanistan is no doubt a serious phenomenon but it is more a potential threat.
Interests of various regional and extra-regional countries have been there in Afghanistan and
therefore they will protect their interests at all cost. ISIS could be a threat to the region but it is too
early to say that. Their activities are marginal and localized. Their ideology is, however, the
greatest threat of all which is pulling people towards them. This is an actual threat. Reports are
coming that Indians are also joining ISIS; however, their numbers are quite marginal.31 Indians are
also concerned with this issue and they want to deal it with the help of Russians.
4. Counter ISIS Policy of Regional Countries:
Afghanistan: Afghanistan has faced the worst scenarios of war, terrorism and extremism. Their
policies are heavy influenced by the US policy makers. Hence, there would be no independent
policy from Afghanistan against ISIS. US forces have ensured Afghan government that they will
not let ISIS prevail in their country. However, there is a threat that Afghan government might use
ISIS against their rivals Al-Qaeda and Taliban. There is no proof in this regard, only a possibility
with some serious consequences. For the Afghan government, the Islamic State poses a unique
threat, different from that posed by the Taliban. Where the Taliban seeks to overthrow an Afghan
state that it sees as illegitimate and establish an Islamic Emirate in Afghanistan, fighters affiliated
with the Islamic State in the country.32 Therefore, they are developing a joint strategy with United
States and the strategy is to nip ISIS in the bud in Afghanistan.33 US forces have already started
drone strikes against ISIS in which their deputy chief Abdul Rauf Khadim has been killed.34
31 Nanjappa,Vicky. How India will fight the ISIS with Russia, One India, September 09,2015.
http://www.oneindia.com/india/how-india-will-fight-the-isis-with-russia-1862291.html
32 Panda,Ankit. Washington and Kabul Want a Joint Strategy against ISIS in Afghanistan, The diplomat,July 21,
2015.http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/washington-and-kabul-want-a-joint-strategy-against-isis-in-afghanistan
33 Ibid.
34 Ed. The ISIS Bandwagon: Afghanistan and Pakistan, March 06, 2015 http://www.eaglespeak.us/2015/03/the-isis-
bandwagon-afghanistan-andhtml

18 | P a g e
Pakistan: Pakistan being involved in operation against terrorism, has no urgent need to counter
ISIS because the forces have left no space for them. However, in a longer run, Pakistan would
stick to its “3D Counter Strategy”. This strategy has three points: Dialogue with the local tribesmen
of troubled areas. It includes hearts and minds game, propaganda campaign etc. in order to bring
the tribesmen back in the national circle. Deterrence is the second point. Pakistan would maintain
deterrence in order to bring peace in the areas along with its borders. However, if the deterrence
fails, the terrorists would face serious consequences. Development is the final and most important
point. Pakistan would try to bring development, investment, infrastructure building, medical and
educational facilities etc. in those areas so that it would earn population support. Another important
aspect is the political freedom to be given to those areas. Federal administration should be
dissolved in order to bring these people back in the political cycle of the country. It might be
helpful to find political solutions of any problem in the future.
Iran: Iran is one of the most anti-ISIS countries in the world. Iranian forces are involved in Middle
East in order to protect the Shias. Hence, they would not tolerate any ISIS activity near their
borders i.e. in Afghanistan. Iran would support Shia activists inside Afghanistan in order to contain
ISIS within the borders of Afghanistan.
India: India is worried because its people have started joining ISIS. India is looking forward to
develop a counter ISIS strategy with the help of Russia. However, India’s internal affairs would
make it really difficult to execute any anti-ISIS propaganda campaign. Administrative behavior
with Muslims and other minorities is even worse. Indian grass root economy is also shivering.
Hence, it would be very difficult for them to counter the appeal which has such attractiveness.
Bangladesh: ISIS sympathizers are there in Bangladesh and most recently, ISIS has killed a
Japanese tourist in Bangladesh.35 Bangladeshi government has no counter policy yet because it is
the most recent phenomenon that has occurred.
5. Contemporary Situation of Afghanistan:
35 Mullen, Jethro and Fareed Ahmed, ISIS claims responsibility for killing of Japanese man in Bangladesh, CNN,
October 05, 2015. http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/04/asia/bangladesh-isis-japanese-man-killed

19 | P a g e
The Afghan government announced the death of former Taliban leader mullah Omar on July 29,
2015, and the Taliban confirmed the report the subsequent day.36 Widespread knowledge of
Mullah Omar’s death will exacerbate existing fractures within the Taliban and accelerate a power
grab among several prominent individuals who have fundamental disagreements over the
objectives of the movement.37 This inflection could ultimately make permanent major divisions
within the group. A unity Shura, or council, is now arbitrating the leadership dispute. Al-Qaeda
leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has issued a video statement pledging allegiance to Akhtar Mohammad
Mansour, who had been Mullah Omar's de facto deputy and is the preferred choice of Pakistan.
Zawahiri likely pledged in order to reinforce this candidate and to preclude AQ groups from
pledging to the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). ISIS will likely exploit these tensions to
gain fighters and resources as it expands its presence and operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Some Taliban elements such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan have already pledged to ISIS.
Both conditions will likely accelerate violence in Afghanistan, undermine prospects for a
negotiated peace settlement, and create a competitive environment among jihadist groups in
Afghanistan that will threaten its future security.38 U.S. policy makers must consider the likelihood
of these deteriorating conditions and re-evaluate planned troop withdrawal timelines.39
The new chief of Taliban Mullah Akhtar Mansur has started attacks and rigorous fight against
Afghan government. This is his only strategy so that he could keep Taliban factions busy in fight
because many factions are not happy with the leadership of Mullah Akhtar Mansur. This fight has
no link with the ISIS activities in Afghanistan but if this expedition fails, the calamitous Taliban
would may look towards joining ISIS.
Conclusion:
The contemporary situation shows that ISIS has bright chances in Afghanistan. The clashes
between Afghan government and Taliban has given them space to pursue their objectives. Before
36 Byrne, H., et al.(2015)."tHE DEAtH Of mUllAH OmAR AND tHE RisEOf isis iNAfGHANistAN."
37 Ibid.
38 Ibid.
39 Ibid.

20 | P a g e
that, the death of Mullah Omer and Taliban internal clash has provided them with some
disappointed Taliban members. Hence, they could do a lot better than what they have done so far.
From the regional perspective, this is not a good sign for regional prosperity and chances for peace.
The war against ISIS would be just another war to end continuing war. Pakistan has offered and
struggled to bring Taliban and Afghan government closer to each other to find a political solution
but the efforts resulted futile. Now the situation is even worse. Pakistan being the door keeper of
the region, wants to contain conflict inside Afghanistan to find a political solution to end the
conflict. Pakistan believes that ISIS is far more dangerous than Al-Qaeda because they are now
acquiring global reach. There are sympathizers of Islamic State present in Pakistan who would aid
ISIS cause if a chance is given to them. Hence, ISIS is a potential threat and it has a potential to
become an actual threat as well.
From Extra-Regional perspective, the situation of Afghanistan could be devastating if not handled
properly. If ISIS prevails, the billions of dollars that was invested in war against terrorism in
Afghanistan would be a waste for nothing. It would also be difficult for US and NATO forces to
justify themselves in front of their public.

21 | P a g e
Bibliography:
Barrett, R. (2014). "Foreign fighters in Syria." The Soufan Group, http://soufangroup. com/wp-
content/uploads/2014/06/TSG-Foreign-Fighters-in-Syria. pdf: 6.
Bertrand, N. (2015). "We're getting to know just how different ISIS is from al Qaeda." Business
Insider.
Byrne, H., et al. (2015). "tHE DEAtH Of mUllAH OmAR AND tHE RisE Of isis iN AfGHANistAN."
Cronin, A. K. (2015). "ISIS Is Not a Terrorist Group." Foreign Affairs 94(2): 87-98.
Laub, Z. and J. Masters (2014). "Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria." The Council on Foreign
Relations. June 12.
Wong, K. (2014). "Five ways ISIS, al Qaeda differ." The Hill.
ISIS-civilians-non-state-actors,
http://www.ucdp.uu.se/gpdatabase/gpcountry.php?id=77&regionSelect=10-Middle_East#
"Isis, Isil or Da'ish? What to call militants in Iraq". BBC News. 24 June 2014. Retrieved 16
August 2014.
Rana, Muhammad Amir. “The Dawn”, July 04, 2014. http://www.dawn.com/news/1116799
Stoltzfoos, Rachel. ISIS Takes It To The Taliban In Afghanistan, August 11, 2015.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/08/11/isis-takes-it-to-the-taliban-in-afghanistan/#ixzz3naga7ZDd
Ed. The ISIS Bandwagon: Afghanistan and Pakistan, March 06, 2015
http://www.eaglespeak.us/2015/03/the-isis-bandwagon-afghanistan-andhtml
LWJ STAFF, “Mapping the emergence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”, Long War Journals,
March 05, 2015 http://hiload.org/surf/svKLuxrsQzX102icoqxM0_xx-03_iS_tis_dnW98uuc-
6M2ejL0qcWKobOJA7eg11b3vud2SBNtSkXBK8cxigx8NezmyJEIuCVieEEl-
QG6jYtHMzHD4sUrT-35-4JBVT7xeYhmcE4AHkt9q26qQ. Accession Date October 03, 2015.

22 | P a g e
Wyk, Tom. Could it get any worse? Taliban look set to clash with ISIS as Mullah Omar's
successor vows to continue the war in Afghanistan, Daily Mail, August 01, 2015.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3182445/Could-worse-Taliban-look-set-clash-ISIS-
Mullah-Omar-s-successor-vows-continue-war-Afghanistan.html#ixzz3neEseOVd
Army Chief’s Statement at Royal United Institute for Defence and Security studies, Express
online newspaper, October 04, 2015. http://www.express.pk/story/396451/
Ed., Cross border attacks: Is Pakistan mulling over surgical strikes on Afghanistan, September
25, 2015. http://pk.shafaqna.com/EN/14979
Nanjappa, Vicky. How India will fight the ISIS with Russia, One India, September 09, 2015.
http://www.oneindia.com/india/how-india-will-fight-the-isis-with-russia-1862291.html
Panda, Ankit. Washington and Kabul Want a Joint Strategy against ISIS in Afghanistan, The
diplomat, July 21, 2015. http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/washington-and-kabul-want-a-joint-
strategy-against-isis-in-afghanistan Accession date: October 05, 2015.
Mullen, Jethro and Fareed Ahmed, ISIS claims responsibility for killing of Japanese man in
Bangladesh, CNN, October 05, 2015. http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/04/asia/bangladesh-isis-
japanese-man-killed accessed on October 05, 2015.

Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan. A threat to regional security.

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (20)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (15)

Similar to Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan. A threat to regional security.

Similar to Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan. A threat to regional security. (10)

Emergence of ISIS in Afghanistan. A threat to regional security.