June 2010 edition. Economic insight into the current EMEA region (europe, africa and middle east). Regional Statistics, employment news and current legislation affecting the jobs economy.
'The B of the Bang' - What the UK Government’s white paper on Brexit means fo...Graeme Cross
With the triggering of Article 50, the UK has entered a period of profound change. Its future relationship with the EU is open to negotiation and its position in the wider world reassessed.
The UK faces considerable uncertainty, with both opportunities and pitfalls evident in the coming years, and business must prepare for significant change as the UK seeks to forge anew its global economic and political position post-Brexit.
To help clients better understand what this may mean for their business, Aon experts have analysed the recent Government white paper regarding Brexit and sought to provide answers to some of the key issues raised in the document.
'The B of the Bang' - What the UK Government’s white paper on Brexit means fo...Graeme Cross
With the triggering of Article 50, the UK has entered a period of profound change. Its future relationship with the EU is open to negotiation and its position in the wider world reassessed.
The UK faces considerable uncertainty, with both opportunities and pitfalls evident in the coming years, and business must prepare for significant change as the UK seeks to forge anew its global economic and political position post-Brexit.
To help clients better understand what this may mean for their business, Aon experts have analysed the recent Government white paper regarding Brexit and sought to provide answers to some of the key issues raised in the document.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The Big IF... Stress-testing BREXIT with combined performance and risk analyticsStatPro Group
EU referendum. UK votes to leave or remain. How large asset management firms need to prepare for a possible Brexit with combined performance and risk analytics.
Revision Special Webinar on the UK Economy (May 2018)tutor2u
Eight years after the trough in output following the Global Financial Crisis, the UK economy is slowing down. Demand, output and jobs have been resilient in the two years since the June 2016 Brexit vote – the economy did not “fall off the cliff” as many feared. And the strength of the labour market has been a notable achievement for the Government. But there are now growing signs of a softening in growth in the UK even though the world economy is picking up quite strongly. How much further does the expansion in output have to go before risks of recession emerge once more. In 2018 Britain will be one of the slowest-growing, if not *the* slowest-growing economy in the G20.
Latvijas Banka Monthly Newsletter December 2018Latvijas Banka
Highlights:
• Latvia's economy has experienced rapid growth
• Wage growth remains quite solid
• Current account ran a deficit of 1.0% of GDP in nine months of 2018
In Focus:
• Lending development from a sectoral perspective, by Vilnis Purviņš
Employment and labour market during and after covid 19 pandemicLatvijas Banka
Introductory report to the Meeting of the Education, Science and Culture Committee of the Baltic Assembly “Employment and labour market during and after Covid-19 pandemic” by Oļegs Krasnopjorovs, economist, Latvijas Banka
How to solve the CEE labour force riddle?
Colliers International presents and explains six possible solutions to the puzzle.
http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/emea/insights/ee-research
July/ August 2010 edition. Economic insight into the current EMEA region (europe, africa and middle east). Regional Statistics, employment news and current legislation affecting the jobs economy.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The Big IF... Stress-testing BREXIT with combined performance and risk analyticsStatPro Group
EU referendum. UK votes to leave or remain. How large asset management firms need to prepare for a possible Brexit with combined performance and risk analytics.
Revision Special Webinar on the UK Economy (May 2018)tutor2u
Eight years after the trough in output following the Global Financial Crisis, the UK economy is slowing down. Demand, output and jobs have been resilient in the two years since the June 2016 Brexit vote – the economy did not “fall off the cliff” as many feared. And the strength of the labour market has been a notable achievement for the Government. But there are now growing signs of a softening in growth in the UK even though the world economy is picking up quite strongly. How much further does the expansion in output have to go before risks of recession emerge once more. In 2018 Britain will be one of the slowest-growing, if not *the* slowest-growing economy in the G20.
Latvijas Banka Monthly Newsletter December 2018Latvijas Banka
Highlights:
• Latvia's economy has experienced rapid growth
• Wage growth remains quite solid
• Current account ran a deficit of 1.0% of GDP in nine months of 2018
In Focus:
• Lending development from a sectoral perspective, by Vilnis Purviņš
Employment and labour market during and after covid 19 pandemicLatvijas Banka
Introductory report to the Meeting of the Education, Science and Culture Committee of the Baltic Assembly “Employment and labour market during and after Covid-19 pandemic” by Oļegs Krasnopjorovs, economist, Latvijas Banka
How to solve the CEE labour force riddle?
Colliers International presents and explains six possible solutions to the puzzle.
http://www.colliers.com/en-gb/emea/insights/ee-research
July/ August 2010 edition. Economic insight into the current EMEA region (europe, africa and middle east). Regional Statistics, employment news and current legislation affecting the jobs economy.
The recession that started in 2008 caused a sharp deterioration of the budget balance of Spain. This decline was not fully anticipated by the structural budget balance due to some methodology limitations.
In this article, we calculate an alternative structural balance for Spain in the years prior to the subprime crisis that includes residential investment as an explanatory variable. This estimate shows that by 2004 the Spanish fiscal situation was not as strong as presumed. This fragility was hidden by the extraordinary revenue from the real estate bubble and the construction boom.
The Employment and Social Innovation (EaSI) programme
is a new pan-European programme which will start on
1 January 2014, as part of the EU 2014-2020 Multiannual
Financial Framework.EaSi integrates three existing programmes: PROGRESS, EURES, PROGRESS Microfinance Facility.
Comparative analysis of the socioeconomic and demographic change in Europe: i...ifoasapereutile
Verso l’Europa 2020 - imprese e persone che cambiano
Evento Finale del Progetto EMPOWER+ “Rete Europea per la promozione dell’occupabilità: lavoratori senior come Mentor, Coach e Team-Leaders”
Intervento di Nikos Vasileiadis: Trek Consulting (Grecia)
“Verso l’Europa 2020, persone e imprese che cambiano” è il titolo con cui si è celebrato il 24 settembre 2013 in IFOA, a Reggio Emilia, l’evento finale del progetto europeo “Empower Plus”, realizzato da un partnership costituita da enti rappresentativi di diversi paesi europei: Grecia, regione della Macedonia Centrale, Germania, Spagna e Italia che con IFOA ha contribuito al progetto apportando la sua esperienza nella formazione.
Il convegno si è soffermato sull’importanza del mantenimento del filo di collegamento intergenerazionale che garantisce la continuità nel ricambio all’interno delle organizzazioni: mantenere il patrimonio di conoscenze che i lavoratori più anziani detengono e studiare e praticare modalità di trasferimento delle competenza ai più giovani significa per le imprese sopravvivere al cambiamento e assicurarsi continuità e innovazione.
Resto perchè cambio: così l’invecchiamento attivo sul posto di lavoro diventa un valore sociale, una ricchezza per l’impresa, un’ opportunità per i giovani, un arricchimento per i lavoratori maturi.
El Informe País sobre España muestra un crecimiento sólido, sostenible y más intenso que otros mercados periféricos de la Eurozona.
Tras dos años de contracción, los últimos indicadores de actividad señalan que la recuperación económica de España está tomando impulso. El informe país sobre España que hoy difundimos a nuestros asegurados en 50 países, muestra un rendimiento económico resistente y sostenible y una recuperación más intensa que la de otros mercados periféricos de la Eurozona.
La economía española lleva ya cuatro trimestres seguidos de crecimiento y en el segundo trimestre de 2014, el PIB registró el mayor incremento trimestral desde el primer trimestre de 2007. El aumento de la demanda externa y la mayor confianza empresarial han estimulado la inversión empresarial, mientras que la recuperación del mercado laboral y la demanda contenida de bienes de consumo duraderos han incrementado el consumo privado. Los componentes privados de la demanda interna, básicamente consumo e inversiones, han sido el pilar del crecimiento del PIB en lo que va de 2014 y se espera que se mantengan su solidez en la segunda mitad del año.
El crecimiento está teniendo un impacto positivo en el mercado laboral. El desempleo ha registrado su mayor descenso desde 2006. No obstante, aún existen algunos problemas importantes en el mercado laboral español: el 15% de la población activa ha permanecido desempleada durante más de un año y el desempleo juvenil sigue siendo alto, el 55%. Se espera que el desempleo no baje del 20% durante al menos otros cuatro años.
Actualmente, toda la Eurozona se enfrenta a una reducción de la inflación, lo que inquieta a algunos de sus Estados miembros como España, donde la inflación ha caído bajo cero en 2014. Las medidas anunciadas por el Banco Central Europeo y la creciente demanda interna deberían llevar al aumento de precios de consumo hasta el 0,9% en 2015.
La competitividad internacional de España está mejorando y el sector exportador es relativamente sólido y competitivo. 2007 ha sido el único año reciente en el que la contribución de las exportaciones netas al PIB fue negativa. La comparación basada en el tipo de cambio efectivo real, que mide la competitividad internacional de un país al modificarse costes y precios, muestra que todavía hay un margen considerable de mejora. En 2013, la balanza por cuenta corriente registró su primer superávit desde 1986 y en 2014 se espera otro superávit, reflejo de las mejoras estructurales en competitividad internacional. España registró un sólido rendimiento en exportaciones en 2013, ofreciendo una favorable mezcla de productos y diversificando los mercados de exportación. Aunque Francia y Alemania siguen siendo destinos clave de exportación, España ha aumentado los envíos a mercados emergentes en África, América Latina y Oriente Medio. Asimismo, la inversión extranjera directa ha mejorado y se encuentra a buen n
"Highlights":
Annual inflation was stable in April
GDP growth maintained by retail trade and impeded by energy sector
Labour market gradually becoming more favourable for employees
"In Focus":
Eurosystem's monetary policy: Expanded Asset Purchase Programme; autors: Egils Kaužēns
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Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
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Tata Group Dials Taiwan for Its Chipmaking Ambition in Gujarat’s Dholera
EMEA Economic Insight June 2010
1. Manpower EMEA
Economic Insight
Issue 3. June 2010
EMEA Macro Economic Insight
EA16 unemployment rate at 10.1% and at 9.7% in the EU27
The EA16 seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 10.1% in April 2010, compared with
10.0% in March. It was 9.2% in April 2009. The EU27 unemployment rate was 9.7% in April
2010, unchanged compared with March. It was 8.7% in April 2009.
Eurostat also estimates that 23.311m men
and women in the EU27, of whom 15.86m
are in the EA16, were unemployed in April
2010. Compared with March 2010, the
number of persons unemployed increased
by 25,000 in both the EU27 and the EA16.
Compared with April 2009, unemployment
went up by 2.4min the EU27 and by 1.275m
in the EA16. Among Member States, the
lowest unemployment rates were recorded
in the Netherlands (4.1%) and Austria
(4.9%), and the highest rates in Latvia
(22.5%), Spain (19.7%) and Estonia (19.0%
in the rst quarter of 2010).
Between April 2009 and April 2010, the unemployment rate for males rose from 9.0% to 10.0% in
the EA16 and from 8.7% to 9.8% in the EU27. The female unemployment rate increased from 9.5%
to 10.2% in the EA16 and from 8.7% to 9.5% in the EU27. In April 2010, the youth unemployment
rate (under-25s) was 20.0% in the euro area and 20.6% in the EU27. In April 2009 it was 19.3% and
19.2% respectively. The lowest rate was observed in the Netherlands (8.0%), and the highest rates
in Latvia (44.6% in the rst quarter of 2010), Spain (40.3%) and Estonia (39.8% in the rst quarter of
2010). By contrast in the USA, the unemployment rate was 9.9% in April 2010 and in Japan it was
5.0% in March 2010.
Industrial producer prices grow Volume of retail trade down by 1.2% in both EA16 and EU27
by 0.9% in EA16 & 1.0% in EU27 In April 2010, compared with March 2010, the volume of retail
In April 2010 compared with March trade decreased by 1.2% in both the EA16 and the EU27. In
2010, the industrial producer price March retail trade rose by 0.5% in both zones.
index rose by 0.9% in the EA16
and by 1.0% in the EU27. In March, In April 2010, compared with April 2009, the retail sales index
prices increased by 0.6% and 0.8% declined by 1.5% in the EA16 and by 1.6% in the EU27. Among
respectively. In April 2010 com- the Member States for which data are available, total retail trade
pared with April 2009, industrial fell in fourteen and rose in ve. The highest decreases were
producer prices gained 2.8% in the observed in Poland (-8.7%), Denmark (-8.6%), Slovakia (-3.6%)
EA16 and 3.7% in the EU27. and Spain (-2.1%), and the largest increases in Belgium (+1.8%)
and Germany (+1.0%).
Unit Labour costs increase
The OECD has reported that since EA16 and EU27 GDP up by 0.2%
the start of the economic crisis in GDP increased by 0.2% in both the EA16 and the EU27 during
the third quarter of 2008, unit labour the rst quarter of 2010, compared with the previous quarter,
costs (ULC) have risen by 2.3%, according to Eurostat, the statistical of ce of the European
3.7%, 4.5% and 4.6% in France, Union. In the fourth quarter of 2009, growth rates were +0.1%
Italy, Germany and the United King- in the EA16 and +0.2% in the EU27. Compared with the rst
dom respectively and has fallen by quarter of 2009, seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 0.6%
1.8% in Japan and by over 2.4% in in the EA16 and by 0.5% in the EU27, after -2.1% and -2.3%
the United States. The ULC index respectively for the previous quarter. By comparison in the
measures change in the ratio of United States GDP increased by 0.8% during the rst quarter
total labour costs to real output. of 2010, after +1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2009 and in Japan
An increase in ULC indicates that GDP increased by 1.2% in the rst quarter of 2010, after +1.0%
growth in remuneration and social in the previous quarter.
charges exceeds the growth in
labour productivity. How does this all relate to Manpower? Why not refer to the latest Q3 2010 MEOS
Reports which are available from www.manpower.com/meos
2. Manpower EMEA
Economic Insight
Issue 3. June 2010
UK: Estonia:
EMEA Country Insight
Wholesale pension review EA16 to become EA17 on 1st January 2011
The new UK government is undertaking a whole- Estonia is set to become the Eurozone's 17th
sale review of pension legislation with special member on 1 January 2011, after a vote by EU
emphasis on the statutory retirement age. Current nance ministers. The Baltic state has xed its
legislation means that pensionable age will be currency - the kroon - to the Euro ever since the
equal for men and women by 2020 and thereafter single currency's inception in 1999. However
will rise to 66 between 2024 and 2026. However Estonia was unable to fully join the Euro, as its
government of cials have indicated that the UK in ation rate was deemed too high. But thanks
may follow the Danish system of indexing the pen- to the global recession, the country has nally
sionable age in line with longevity projections. met the in ation criterion for inclusion in the
Eurozone.
Italy:
Public sector salary reviews The Netherlands
The Italian government has followed the example Wage agreements for temporary labour
of other European nations and frozen public sector The Dutch Association of Temporary Employ-
salaries until 2013 as well as cutting the salaries of ment Agencies (ABU) has agreed an increase in
high-earner civil servants by 10%. There is also a salary for temporary employees in the Nether-
freeze on public sector appointments until 2013 as lands following the traditional annual collective
well as an increase in the retirement age for wom- bargaining process with various trade unions.
en employed in the public sector to 65 by 2016. The collective agreement will now be followed
by a general declaration issued by the Dutch
Serbia: government making it binding on all temporary
Easing of public sector pay constraint work agencies operating in the country. From 5
The IMF has agreed that Serbia may end its freeze July 2010 temporary employees will receive a
on public sector pay and state pensions imposed +1% increase in pay to be followed by a further
last year as a condition of the IMF's bailout loan. increase of +0.5% in January 2011. From next
However it remains unclear whether the entire pub- July there will be a new index as a basis for pay
lic sector or just government of cials will bene t rises - developed from pay trends in the sectors
from this latest decision. where temporary workers are currently princi-
Sweden: pally deployed.
Induction courses for new immigrants
Spain
The Swedish government is looking to recommend
Labour market reforms to go ahead
that all 40,000 immigrants who arrive in Sweden
The Spanish Prime Minister has announced
each year with a residence permit of 12 months
that the government will approve labour mar-
or more should undertake a mandatory induction
ket reforms whether or not there is agreement
course on the national constitution, the welfare
with unions and employers. Recent tri-partisan
state and “everyday Swedish life”.
negotiations failed due to strong disagreements
Italy: between employers and union representatives.
New fund for disabled workers
A fund has been established to support workers Labour market reforms, bank re-structuring and
with disabilities. Grants can be claimed for work- a reduction in the national de cit are regarded
place changes which have to be made for people as essentials to solve Spain’s economic prob-
whose ability to work is reduced by more than half lems and pulling the country out of its worst
because of their disability. Items such as improve- recession in decades. Current austerity mea-
ments in access to working areas, technological sures seek to cut spending by at least €15bn.
aids and the additional cost of insurance against The new austerity bill has introduced immediate
accidents at work are all covered in the scheme. public sector salary cuts for civil servants and
This coincides with the EU’s intention of ratifying government ministers. The cuts ranging from
the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with less than 1% to 15% will remain in effect until
Disabilities by the end of 2010. The Commission is the end of 2011. Although unemployment fell by
currently drawing up a new Disability Strategy with just over 76,000 last month there are still over
plans to introduce new measures to increase the 4m unemployed in Spain. The latest fall is widely
employment rate of disabled people. reported to be a seasonal blip rather than based
on a general upturn in the economy.
3. Manpower EMEA
Economic Insight
Issue 3. June 2010
International Labour Organisation calls for balanced policy.
EMEA Employment Insight
The Director-General of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) Juan Somavia has called for a
‘balanced’ policy strategy aimed at securing a ‘jobs-rich’ economic recovery in the face of new threats to
the global economy from the sovereign debt crisis and scal retrenchment.
Speaking recently at the opening of the ILO’s International Labour Conference, Mr. Somavia warned that
the debt crisis and de cit reduction measures, mainly in social spending, could ‘directly affect jobs and
salaries’ at a time of weak economic recovery and continued high levels of unemployment.
Mr. Somavia called for a ‘balanced policy convergence strategy’ based on three elements: securing a
job-rich recovery, moving onto a path of strong, sustainable and balanced growth, and addressing the
structural imbalances of the global economy that existed before the crisis. “We need to act on all three
objectives together in a harmonious way within a short, medium and longer-term perspective,” Mr.
Somavia said. “They are all interconnected.” “The immediate danger of a simultaneous scal retrench-
ment in a signi cant number of countries is to slow down Europe’s weak recovery even more. In turn,
this would damage in different ways growth prospects around the world. A contagion effect cannot be
ruled out.” Mr Somavia went on to say “there is no doubt that the public debt and public de cit problems
of many countries are real and need to be dealt with, as both a national and a global stability issue. The
question is how and in what time frame.”
Q3 2010 MEOS Results released
Employer hiring plans remain mixed across the 18 countries surveyed in the latest EMEA MEOS which
has just been released. There are positive signals in the labour market with third-quarter hiring activity
expected to be positive in 13 out of the 18 countries surveyed. In comparison to last year at this time,
when employers in 13 countries were reporting negative hiring expectations, only those in four report
negative Net Employment Outlooks: Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece. Meanwhile, year-over-year
improvements are forecast for 14 countries. Hiring activity in the region is expected to be strongest in
Poland, Germany and Sweden.
Manpower Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Jeff Jeorres said “Europe, despite all the recent bad news,
is showing some improved demand for product, as evidenced by employers’ increased appetite to hire in
the Manufacturing sector, with 16 of 18 countries showing more optimism in their hiring plans.
German employers continue to indicate more positive hiring prospects than their European neighbors
with almost all sectors improving and particular sector strength in Wholesales/Retail hiring. While our
survey was conducted prior to the recent events in Greece, the results are still relatively re ective of the
current challenging environment.”
For details about how this all relates to Manpower, why not refer to the
latest World of Work trends? Numerous reports are available from the
research centre at www.manpower.com