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1/13/20099:13 PM Pacific




I want to focus on the very short-term to see if I can make Elliott wave sense out of the
dramatic whipsaws today. Here is a 60 minute update showing the detailed substructure
of the 3 waves (A-B-C) down. The ratios are very good for both 5 wave segments.

 I account for today’s action with an extended 3rd wave in the C wave. It is not clear
however, if following the 3rd wave is wave 4 and 5, or an expanded flat (a-b-c) in
progress. If it is an expanded flat the most probable c wave extension will go to 882 and
be followed by a 5th wave that could go to 853. More whipsaw action. With the count
revision today and an extension to 882 before turning lower, 853 becomes a probable
turning point if we then break lower.

On the other hand, if we completed 5 waves, then 882 is also a good first target but
should be followed by a retracement then an extension higher. Therefore, taking out 882
is a good indicator that we will go higher in the very short-term.
1/13/20099:13 PM Pacific


If we cannot reach 882 before turning down and taking out the low, then I expect that the
selling will gather steam and 832 (shown as a 1.618 extension) on the chart is the
probable next target down.

Another repeat from last night is the bounce off the Bollinger band and a hammer
reversal bar.

My bias is that we make the turn back up and extend the zigzag, but patience for a clearer
signal (either way) is in order.




TMD/DW

The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical
analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability.
The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not
an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders
relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility
for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the
individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own
decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The
market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.

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Elliott wave and Fibonacci analysis on 011309

  • 1. 1/13/20099:13 PM Pacific I want to focus on the very short-term to see if I can make Elliott wave sense out of the dramatic whipsaws today. Here is a 60 minute update showing the detailed substructure of the 3 waves (A-B-C) down. The ratios are very good for both 5 wave segments. I account for today’s action with an extended 3rd wave in the C wave. It is not clear however, if following the 3rd wave is wave 4 and 5, or an expanded flat (a-b-c) in progress. If it is an expanded flat the most probable c wave extension will go to 882 and be followed by a 5th wave that could go to 853. More whipsaw action. With the count revision today and an extension to 882 before turning lower, 853 becomes a probable turning point if we then break lower. On the other hand, if we completed 5 waves, then 882 is also a good first target but should be followed by a retracement then an extension higher. Therefore, taking out 882 is a good indicator that we will go higher in the very short-term.
  • 2. 1/13/20099:13 PM Pacific If we cannot reach 882 before turning down and taking out the low, then I expect that the selling will gather steam and 832 (shown as a 1.618 extension) on the chart is the probable next target down. Another repeat from last night is the bounce off the Bollinger band and a hammer reversal bar. My bias is that we make the turn back up and extend the zigzag, but patience for a clearer signal (either way) is in order. TMD/DW The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical analysis and research. However, no warranty is given or implied as to its true reliability. The market detective will make errors and mistakes. The market detective is not an investment adviser and is not making recommendations to buy, sell, or place orders relating to the futures contracts, ETFs, or stocks that he writes about. The responsibility for decisions made from information contained in this service are solely that of the individual subscriber. The individual must fully research and make his/her own decisions before acting on any information provided by the market detective. The market detective assumes no responsibility for subscriber investment or trading results.