The market detective is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT). He uses technical analysis to identify market turning points and opportunities. He is primarily an Elliottician, he uses the Elliott wave principle and Fibonacci ratio analysis to uncover clues about the direction of the market. He uses other forms of technical analysis to corroborate his findings in such a way as to assign a probability factor to them.

1. 11/13/20089:28 PM Pacific
The only reasonable thesis left besides the Ending Diagonal that I can interpret is the
Running Flat and it is hanging on by a thread. The possibility of the move down from C
being the start of wave 5 is the current state of this alternative. The Elliott rule that wave
4 cannot breach the bottom of wave 1 eliminates that the move down today completed
wave 3. However, it is still possible that we just completed (4) of 3, but just barely.
On the following 60 minute ZOOM IN we are looking at the wave pattern down from 2.
You can see that wave (4) does breach wave (1), but not on a closing bar basis. Minor
breaches happen in the futures on intra-day charts, but in my experience not on a closing

2. 11/13/20089:28 PM Pacific
bar basis. The fact that we stopped exactly at the rule break level is enough to keep this
one alive as an alternate. Rule break lines are often resistance levels that are not broken.
So if we dump here and head straight down, this alternate thesis is the map. Going back
to the daily chart we would probably bounce at 786 (1.618 extension of wave 1), back
near 850 and then continue down to 700-715. Big rally follows.
The primary thesis is the Ending Diagonal from the update earlier today.
Again, the move up today morphs into an (a-b-c) move that takes price to around 960 (the
overhead trend line). The retracement down before that which is going to propel us to the
top line should be at least a .384 retracement. Less of a retracement probably won’t get us
there and a bigger retracement will follow a small extension higher. On the other hand, a
retracement greater than .618 is suspect.
Any extension higher that takes us above 915 cash negates the alternate thesis and
there is only one probable thesis remaining, the Ending Diagonal.
Finally, we complete an extended 3 wave pattern that takes us as low as 750. That is
wave 5. Big rally follows.

3. 11/13/20089:28 PM Pacific
TMD/DW
The market detective provides personal market opinion based on sound technical
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