The document discusses the global economic system's reliance on sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and key ports for transporting global trade, particularly oil. It analyzes the potential economic effects of disruptions to major SLOCs like the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil flows. While a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could cause short-term oil price increases, the global economic system has proven resilient to SLOC disruptions by rerouting trade and finding alternative supply routes. The political and economic consequences for Iran of closing the Strait of Hormuz would also likely outweigh any benefits.
This document discusses the concept of transit passage under international law. It begins by defining transit passage as allowing vessels and aircraft freedom of navigation or overflight solely for continuous and expeditious transit between the high seas or exclusive economic zones. It notes potential conflicts that can arise between transit passage and innocent passage rights when a coastal state views a vessel's transit as a security threat. The document then discusses the nature, scope, and rights associated with transit passage, including that all ships and aircraft enjoy unimpeded transit in international straits. It also discusses related concepts like duties during transit passage, research restrictions, traffic schemes, laws/regulations of bordering states, and navigational aids. It concludes by noting debate around whether transit passage
The MV Sea Empress oil tanker ran aground in Wales in 1996, spilling over 70,000 tonnes of crude oil into the sea and along the coastline. Poor communication due to the crew not speaking English contributed to difficulties in the salvage operation and prevented the efficient use of tugs. The accident was found to be caused by human error and inadequate pilot training by the port authority, resulting in a large fine. Proper communication may have helped refloat the ship sooner and lessened the environmental damage.
The document discusses arguments against the widely held belief that the United States needs to end its dependence on oil from the Middle East for economic and national security reasons. It summarizes perspectives from experts that question this consensus, including that an Arab oil embargo like in the 1970s is unlikely to significantly impact the US economy today, and that concerns over supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz are overblown given the large volumes of oil tanker traffic. The document advocates rethinking the conventional wisdom around Middle Eastern oil dependence.
The document discusses key oil chokepoints and supply risks globally and for India. It notes India's high dependency on oil imports which is increasing, and vulnerabilities from geopolitical disruptions to major transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz. To improve energy security, the document recommends India develop alternative energy sources, pursue strategic storage, and explore for new domestic oil fields, while also acquiring oil assets abroad.
Webinar PPT - How to overcome the challenges of air & sea transport for export ?Bansard International
The year 2020 brings historic logistical and transportation challenges: container shortages, stopover cancellations, short-notice overloads in sea freight and an overall increase in freight rates, reduced air freight capacity, all this is coupled with the recurring problems of the high season in China with the end of year festivities.
Almost a year after the emergence of the pandemic, we are experiencing a disruption in the transport market. How can this situation be explained? How to deal with these disruptions?
To answer these questions, Loïc Benattar, Vice President Asia-Pacific of the Bansard International Group, has shared his experience with the French Chamber of Singapore via videoconference on Thursday, January 28, 2021. Find back the presentation of the webinar.
For more information do not hesitate to visit our website at www.bansard.com or contact Aurelie ROCHON, Route Development Manager based in Singapore at aurelie.rochon@bansard.com.sg
Data sources: IATA, Eurocontrol Statfor, Alphaliner, Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, Le Figaro, Lepoint
This document summarizes General Barry McCaffrey's presentation on rising tensions between Iran and Western nations over Iran's nuclear program. McCaffrey warns that the risk of military escalation in the Persian Gulf is high over the next 90 days. He notes Iran's capability to disrupt oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which could draw the U.S. into conflict. McCaffrey assesses a 15% probability of major military action and argues substantial force would be needed to eliminate the Iranian threat to oil shipments through the Gulf.
July import volumes of benzene and pygas were up with 18,000 metric tons of benzene arriving in the US Gulf Coast and 6,500 metric tons of pygas arriving in Houston. Spot prices for benzene closed at $1,583/mt on July 9th with backwardation between months. Several vessels carrying benzene, pygas, and styrene were en route to the US and Asia from locations like Taiwan, Brazil, and Panama. Toluene and xylene prices were mixed with mixed xylene falling from late June levels while toluene held firm.
This document discusses the concept of transit passage under international law. It begins by defining transit passage as allowing vessels and aircraft freedom of navigation or overflight solely for continuous and expeditious transit between the high seas or exclusive economic zones. It notes potential conflicts that can arise between transit passage and innocent passage rights when a coastal state views a vessel's transit as a security threat. The document then discusses the nature, scope, and rights associated with transit passage, including that all ships and aircraft enjoy unimpeded transit in international straits. It also discusses related concepts like duties during transit passage, research restrictions, traffic schemes, laws/regulations of bordering states, and navigational aids. It concludes by noting debate around whether transit passage
The MV Sea Empress oil tanker ran aground in Wales in 1996, spilling over 70,000 tonnes of crude oil into the sea and along the coastline. Poor communication due to the crew not speaking English contributed to difficulties in the salvage operation and prevented the efficient use of tugs. The accident was found to be caused by human error and inadequate pilot training by the port authority, resulting in a large fine. Proper communication may have helped refloat the ship sooner and lessened the environmental damage.
The document discusses arguments against the widely held belief that the United States needs to end its dependence on oil from the Middle East for economic and national security reasons. It summarizes perspectives from experts that question this consensus, including that an Arab oil embargo like in the 1970s is unlikely to significantly impact the US economy today, and that concerns over supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz are overblown given the large volumes of oil tanker traffic. The document advocates rethinking the conventional wisdom around Middle Eastern oil dependence.
The document discusses key oil chokepoints and supply risks globally and for India. It notes India's high dependency on oil imports which is increasing, and vulnerabilities from geopolitical disruptions to major transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz. To improve energy security, the document recommends India develop alternative energy sources, pursue strategic storage, and explore for new domestic oil fields, while also acquiring oil assets abroad.
Webinar PPT - How to overcome the challenges of air & sea transport for export ?Bansard International
The year 2020 brings historic logistical and transportation challenges: container shortages, stopover cancellations, short-notice overloads in sea freight and an overall increase in freight rates, reduced air freight capacity, all this is coupled with the recurring problems of the high season in China with the end of year festivities.
Almost a year after the emergence of the pandemic, we are experiencing a disruption in the transport market. How can this situation be explained? How to deal with these disruptions?
To answer these questions, Loïc Benattar, Vice President Asia-Pacific of the Bansard International Group, has shared his experience with the French Chamber of Singapore via videoconference on Thursday, January 28, 2021. Find back the presentation of the webinar.
For more information do not hesitate to visit our website at www.bansard.com or contact Aurelie ROCHON, Route Development Manager based in Singapore at aurelie.rochon@bansard.com.sg
Data sources: IATA, Eurocontrol Statfor, Alphaliner, Sea-Intelligence Maritime Analysis, Le Figaro, Lepoint
This document summarizes General Barry McCaffrey's presentation on rising tensions between Iran and Western nations over Iran's nuclear program. McCaffrey warns that the risk of military escalation in the Persian Gulf is high over the next 90 days. He notes Iran's capability to disrupt oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which could draw the U.S. into conflict. McCaffrey assesses a 15% probability of major military action and argues substantial force would be needed to eliminate the Iranian threat to oil shipments through the Gulf.
July import volumes of benzene and pygas were up with 18,000 metric tons of benzene arriving in the US Gulf Coast and 6,500 metric tons of pygas arriving in Houston. Spot prices for benzene closed at $1,583/mt on July 9th with backwardation between months. Several vessels carrying benzene, pygas, and styrene were en route to the US and Asia from locations like Taiwan, Brazil, and Panama. Toluene and xylene prices were mixed with mixed xylene falling from late June levels while toluene held firm.
The proposed Nicaraguan Canal project would build a shipping route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. While the Nicaraguan government claims it will boost economic growth, many citizens and environmentalists are skeptical due to the project's lack of transparency and potential environmental impacts. Tourism in Nicaragua, an important industry, could be negatively affected by pollution from ships and construction. The $40 billion project's impacts on biodiversity and indigenous communities require further independent study before construction begins.
The document discusses the need for the Marine Corps to adapt to future threats and operating environments in the 21st century. It outlines how the Marine Operating Concept aims to enhance the Marine Air Ground Task Force to conduct amphibious operations and maneuver warfare through information and cyber capabilities. The summary also notes that continued investment in amphibious ships and vehicles is important to project power in contested waters, and that the Marine Corps must balance tradition with new technologies and strategies to remain an agile expeditionary force.
- In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait which led the U.S. to launch Operation Desert Shield to protect Saudi Arabia. In January 1991, the U.S. led a coalition in Operation Desert Storm that began an aerial bombing campaign against Iraq and drove its forces from Kuwait in a brief ground assault. The war ended in February 1991 after Iraq's defeat and agreement to a ceasefire.
The document discusses the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, providing background on previous major oil spills. It describes the types of oil skimming ships and equipment being used or offered to help with cleanup, but notes many have been prevented from operating in US waters due to the Jones Act. It outlines challenges faced with the containment cap and relief well efforts to permanently stop the oil leak.
Is contemporary maritime security about systemJamie Breen
Contemporary maritime security is about system-management, as evidenced by three key points from the document:
1) The maritime system has become vital to the global economy due to heavy reliance on sea trade, with over 96% of global trade transported by sea. States and businesses recognize the need to secure and manage the maritime system.
2) The UK views the security of the maritime system as a vital national interest and supports an international system. Its defense policy aims to secure strategic areas and global lines of communication to protect free trade.
3) The management and security of the South China Sea is important to prevent escalation affecting global trade, as the waterway is a vital trade route. Regional powers are committed
IONS Seminar 2014 - Session 3 - Climate Change and Risk for Sea PortsNavy Webmaster
1. The climate is changing due to human-induced warming and the impacts will continue into the future. The ocean has absorbed over 90% of the increased heat in the Earth system since 1955.
2. Global sea levels have risen significantly since 1901 and will continue to rise more rapidly throughout the 21st century due to thermal expansion and melting ice sheets and glaciers. Regional variations will occur.
3. Impacts on Australian seaports will mainly come from increased extreme events like heatwaves, floods, and cyclones, which can damage infrastructure and disrupt operations, as seen in recent events. Port resilience and adaptation strategies are needed.
American history: persian gulf war (1990 1991). Operation desert stormAlex Rayón Jerez
Presentation done on June 2009 during my year in the USA in the context of the debates and presentations I took part on with my fellow friend (RIP) and always in mind Ron Mullholand. It treats one of the latest chapter in the American history: the first Persian Gulf War.
Benzene prices in the US surged due to tight supply as several refineries faced outages. Supply was tight as refineries in Lake Charles and Beaumont had issues with reformers. Imports also lagged behind. Toluene and xylene prices rose along with benzene on supply constraints. Styrene prices increased due to higher benzene costs. Margins for producers of HDPE, PX, and styrene improved on the week despite rising feedstock values. The benzene-toluene spread narrowed while the PX-MX spread was estimated near $17.50/mt.
Is Deep Water Oil Drilling a National Security IssueZiad K Abdelnour
The US government considers oil drilling in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico a national security priority because there are significant oil reserves located deep under the Gulf that could help decrease US dependence on foreign oil imports. Both the oil industry and the government face challenges in developing technologies needed to economically extract oil from ultra-deepwater reserves over 6,000 feet deep. The Department of Energy has committed substantial funds towards research to create new technologies for efficient exploration and production in the deepwater Gulf, in order to access these strategic oil reserves and regain US leadership in deepwater drilling.
This special edition of Innovations journal features 11 case studies about entrepreneurial ventures in the Middle East and North Africa region, with the majority from Egypt. The cases cover a variety of industries including technology, food, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, housing, and jewelry. The collection of cases aims to document business developments and entrepreneurial initiatives in the region to share knowledge and lessons learned. The foreword discusses the importance of developing locally relevant case studies for management education in the MENA region given the recent political and economic transformations.
Agenda for Presidents’ Symposium on The Future of Collegiate Education, May 2...Philip Auerswald
Agenda for the Presidents’ Symposium on The Future of Collegiate Education, held at the Association for Public and Land-grant Universities (APLU), May 27, 2010. This meeting was jointly organized by APLU and George Mason University with support from the Kauffman Foundation.
National Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation: Celebrating Entrepreneur...Philip Auerswald
The document proposes the creation of the National Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation to celebrate and support entrepreneurship, invention, and innovation by all Americans. The Center would be located on the National Mall and act as a hub for developing 21st century skills and expanding opportunities through convenings, educational programs, exhibits and events. It aims to nurture connections among local innovation ecosystems in all 50 states to shape the future and ensure entrepreneurial opportunities reach every community. Realizing this vision will require leadership and support from business, political, and community leaders to build a national movement and catalyze major gifts for establishing the Center on the National Mall by 2026 for America's 250th birthday.
Impact on the United States of Closure of the Strait of HormuzPhilip Auerswald
The document discusses the global economic system's reliance on sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and key ports, and analyzes the potential economic effects of disruptions to major SLOCs. It finds that most SLOCs could be rerouted if disrupted, with little economic impact. The sole exception is the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil flows. While closure of Hormuz would severely impact oil shipping, the document argues such action would greatly damage all involved parties. The US Navy plays an important political role in responding to disruptions and maintaining open sea lanes.
Creating a Place for the Future: Toward a New Development Approach for the Is...Philip Auerswald
For six decades, Pakistan has faced, and overcome, conflict and calamity. Despite many obstacles, the country’s economy has grown steadily. At critical junctures, successive governments have adopted strategies suited to the circumstances of the day, and the nation has developed steadily due to these particular well-conceived initiatives. Yet, as a consequence of the reactive nature of policy formulation and implementation, the institutions of government are conditioned to think in terms of projects rather than strategies to support growth.
Today Pakistan confronts a new round of immediate challenges and urgent demands. Yet, it is precisely at this moment of apparent crisis—in the aftermath of a devastating flood and with security concerns continuing to dominate the national agenda—that the need to change the discourse about the country’s development has become most apparent. Reactive tactics and dependence on external aid are not helping Pakistan to develop or to realize its potential.
Sustained and sustainable development cannot come from a collection of projects, no matter how well intended. A New Development Approach is needed: Building markets. Building opportunity. Building cities. Building good governance. Including youth.
To realize Pakistan’s 21st-century potential, the nation’s political and business leaders must not only meet the demands of the present, but also—and perhaps more importantly—create a space for the future.
Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation on the National MallPhilip Auerswald
Concept for Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation on the National Mall.
Independent initiative not formally associated with the Smithsonian Institution.
Islamic Fundamentalism: Religion of Struggle, Ideology of TerrorPhilip Auerswald
Essay I wrote in 1986 for Yale College seminar on "Terrorism and Democracy" taught by Admiral Stansfield Turner, former director of the CIA.
Introduction: "In discussing the relationship of Islamic Fundamentalism to terrorism, one may ask: 'How is the United States to stop radical Islamic terrorism?' Alternately, one may ask: 'How are Muslims to free themselves from the anti-Islamic terrorism of the U.S. and its client-states?' The first of these questions has been at the top of the U.S foreign policy agenda since hostage crisis in 1979; the second has been at the top of the Islamic fundamentalist agenda since the overthrow of the Shah the same year.
"Neither of the above questions will ever yield an answer that will bring the region closer to peace and stability, for the moral imperatives on which they are based are mutually exclusive. Secretary of State George Shultz has stated: 'We must understand above all that terrorism is a form of political violence. Wherever it takes place, it is directed in an important sense against us, the democracies—against our most fundamental values … individual rights, equality under the law, freedom of thought and expression, and freedom of religion.' Ayatollah Khomeini has written: 'the Imams not only fought against tyranical rulers, oppressive governments, and corrupt courts themselves; they also summoned the Muslims to wage jihad against those enemies… The Muslims will be able to live in security and tranquility and preserve their faith and morals only when they enjoy the protection of a government based on justice and law, a government whose form, administrative system, and laws have been laid down by Islam.'
"Secretary Shultz is correct in claiming that the primary values of Western society are under attack by Islamic fundamentalists. Yet the Secretary, and others of like mind, is mistaken in further stating that therefore the' fundamentalist are 'uncivilized,' 'roguish,' 'crazy' and 'unpredictible." While fundamentalist ideolggy is profoundly antagonistic to western values, it is also at once complex, coherent, and internally consistent. The fundamentalists are not emotional fanatics; they are calculating, rational actors. Their objectives are clear: the establishment of Islamic governments across the globe, and the elimination of Western-capitalist and Eastern-communist influence in the Muslim world. Their greatest weapons are not military or political, they are ideological. Consequently, A understanding the context and content of fundamentalist ideology is a pre-requisite to responding effectively to the challenge which they pose to democratic societies."
Pirate activity in the Horn of Africa is expected to increase through 2009 as weather conditions become more favorable. Pirates have expanded operations, carrying out attacks farther from Somalia's coast, including near the Seychelles and Oman. While vessel speed remains a factor in vulnerability, pirates have boarded faster ships under optimal conditions. Nighttime attacks have risen slightly but most occur during daylight. Pirates do not use sophisticated targeting methods and generally attack ships opportunistically in known shipping lanes.
The proposed Nicaraguan Canal project would build a shipping route connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. While the Nicaraguan government claims it will boost economic growth, many citizens and environmentalists are skeptical due to the project's lack of transparency and potential environmental impacts. Tourism in Nicaragua, an important industry, could be negatively affected by pollution from ships and construction. The $40 billion project's impacts on biodiversity and indigenous communities require further independent study before construction begins.
The document discusses the need for the Marine Corps to adapt to future threats and operating environments in the 21st century. It outlines how the Marine Operating Concept aims to enhance the Marine Air Ground Task Force to conduct amphibious operations and maneuver warfare through information and cyber capabilities. The summary also notes that continued investment in amphibious ships and vehicles is important to project power in contested waters, and that the Marine Corps must balance tradition with new technologies and strategies to remain an agile expeditionary force.
- In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait which led the U.S. to launch Operation Desert Shield to protect Saudi Arabia. In January 1991, the U.S. led a coalition in Operation Desert Storm that began an aerial bombing campaign against Iraq and drove its forces from Kuwait in a brief ground assault. The war ended in February 1991 after Iraq's defeat and agreement to a ceasefire.
The document discusses the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, providing background on previous major oil spills. It describes the types of oil skimming ships and equipment being used or offered to help with cleanup, but notes many have been prevented from operating in US waters due to the Jones Act. It outlines challenges faced with the containment cap and relief well efforts to permanently stop the oil leak.
Is contemporary maritime security about systemJamie Breen
Contemporary maritime security is about system-management, as evidenced by three key points from the document:
1) The maritime system has become vital to the global economy due to heavy reliance on sea trade, with over 96% of global trade transported by sea. States and businesses recognize the need to secure and manage the maritime system.
2) The UK views the security of the maritime system as a vital national interest and supports an international system. Its defense policy aims to secure strategic areas and global lines of communication to protect free trade.
3) The management and security of the South China Sea is important to prevent escalation affecting global trade, as the waterway is a vital trade route. Regional powers are committed
IONS Seminar 2014 - Session 3 - Climate Change and Risk for Sea PortsNavy Webmaster
1. The climate is changing due to human-induced warming and the impacts will continue into the future. The ocean has absorbed over 90% of the increased heat in the Earth system since 1955.
2. Global sea levels have risen significantly since 1901 and will continue to rise more rapidly throughout the 21st century due to thermal expansion and melting ice sheets and glaciers. Regional variations will occur.
3. Impacts on Australian seaports will mainly come from increased extreme events like heatwaves, floods, and cyclones, which can damage infrastructure and disrupt operations, as seen in recent events. Port resilience and adaptation strategies are needed.
American history: persian gulf war (1990 1991). Operation desert stormAlex Rayón Jerez
Presentation done on June 2009 during my year in the USA in the context of the debates and presentations I took part on with my fellow friend (RIP) and always in mind Ron Mullholand. It treats one of the latest chapter in the American history: the first Persian Gulf War.
Benzene prices in the US surged due to tight supply as several refineries faced outages. Supply was tight as refineries in Lake Charles and Beaumont had issues with reformers. Imports also lagged behind. Toluene and xylene prices rose along with benzene on supply constraints. Styrene prices increased due to higher benzene costs. Margins for producers of HDPE, PX, and styrene improved on the week despite rising feedstock values. The benzene-toluene spread narrowed while the PX-MX spread was estimated near $17.50/mt.
Is Deep Water Oil Drilling a National Security IssueZiad K Abdelnour
The US government considers oil drilling in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico a national security priority because there are significant oil reserves located deep under the Gulf that could help decrease US dependence on foreign oil imports. Both the oil industry and the government face challenges in developing technologies needed to economically extract oil from ultra-deepwater reserves over 6,000 feet deep. The Department of Energy has committed substantial funds towards research to create new technologies for efficient exploration and production in the deepwater Gulf, in order to access these strategic oil reserves and regain US leadership in deepwater drilling.
This special edition of Innovations journal features 11 case studies about entrepreneurial ventures in the Middle East and North Africa region, with the majority from Egypt. The cases cover a variety of industries including technology, food, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, housing, and jewelry. The collection of cases aims to document business developments and entrepreneurial initiatives in the region to share knowledge and lessons learned. The foreword discusses the importance of developing locally relevant case studies for management education in the MENA region given the recent political and economic transformations.
Agenda for Presidents’ Symposium on The Future of Collegiate Education, May 2...Philip Auerswald
Agenda for the Presidents’ Symposium on The Future of Collegiate Education, held at the Association for Public and Land-grant Universities (APLU), May 27, 2010. This meeting was jointly organized by APLU and George Mason University with support from the Kauffman Foundation.
National Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation: Celebrating Entrepreneur...Philip Auerswald
The document proposes the creation of the National Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation to celebrate and support entrepreneurship, invention, and innovation by all Americans. The Center would be located on the National Mall and act as a hub for developing 21st century skills and expanding opportunities through convenings, educational programs, exhibits and events. It aims to nurture connections among local innovation ecosystems in all 50 states to shape the future and ensure entrepreneurial opportunities reach every community. Realizing this vision will require leadership and support from business, political, and community leaders to build a national movement and catalyze major gifts for establishing the Center on the National Mall by 2026 for America's 250th birthday.
Impact on the United States of Closure of the Strait of HormuzPhilip Auerswald
The document discusses the global economic system's reliance on sea lines of communication (SLOCs) and key ports, and analyzes the potential economic effects of disruptions to major SLOCs. It finds that most SLOCs could be rerouted if disrupted, with little economic impact. The sole exception is the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil flows. While closure of Hormuz would severely impact oil shipping, the document argues such action would greatly damage all involved parties. The US Navy plays an important political role in responding to disruptions and maintaining open sea lanes.
Creating a Place for the Future: Toward a New Development Approach for the Is...Philip Auerswald
For six decades, Pakistan has faced, and overcome, conflict and calamity. Despite many obstacles, the country’s economy has grown steadily. At critical junctures, successive governments have adopted strategies suited to the circumstances of the day, and the nation has developed steadily due to these particular well-conceived initiatives. Yet, as a consequence of the reactive nature of policy formulation and implementation, the institutions of government are conditioned to think in terms of projects rather than strategies to support growth.
Today Pakistan confronts a new round of immediate challenges and urgent demands. Yet, it is precisely at this moment of apparent crisis—in the aftermath of a devastating flood and with security concerns continuing to dominate the national agenda—that the need to change the discourse about the country’s development has become most apparent. Reactive tactics and dependence on external aid are not helping Pakistan to develop or to realize its potential.
Sustained and sustainable development cannot come from a collection of projects, no matter how well intended. A New Development Approach is needed: Building markets. Building opportunity. Building cities. Building good governance. Including youth.
To realize Pakistan’s 21st-century potential, the nation’s political and business leaders must not only meet the demands of the present, but also—and perhaps more importantly—create a space for the future.
Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation on the National MallPhilip Auerswald
Concept for Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation on the National Mall.
Independent initiative not formally associated with the Smithsonian Institution.
Islamic Fundamentalism: Religion of Struggle, Ideology of TerrorPhilip Auerswald
Essay I wrote in 1986 for Yale College seminar on "Terrorism and Democracy" taught by Admiral Stansfield Turner, former director of the CIA.
Introduction: "In discussing the relationship of Islamic Fundamentalism to terrorism, one may ask: 'How is the United States to stop radical Islamic terrorism?' Alternately, one may ask: 'How are Muslims to free themselves from the anti-Islamic terrorism of the U.S. and its client-states?' The first of these questions has been at the top of the U.S foreign policy agenda since hostage crisis in 1979; the second has been at the top of the Islamic fundamentalist agenda since the overthrow of the Shah the same year.
"Neither of the above questions will ever yield an answer that will bring the region closer to peace and stability, for the moral imperatives on which they are based are mutually exclusive. Secretary of State George Shultz has stated: 'We must understand above all that terrorism is a form of political violence. Wherever it takes place, it is directed in an important sense against us, the democracies—against our most fundamental values … individual rights, equality under the law, freedom of thought and expression, and freedom of religion.' Ayatollah Khomeini has written: 'the Imams not only fought against tyranical rulers, oppressive governments, and corrupt courts themselves; they also summoned the Muslims to wage jihad against those enemies… The Muslims will be able to live in security and tranquility and preserve their faith and morals only when they enjoy the protection of a government based on justice and law, a government whose form, administrative system, and laws have been laid down by Islam.'
"Secretary Shultz is correct in claiming that the primary values of Western society are under attack by Islamic fundamentalists. Yet the Secretary, and others of like mind, is mistaken in further stating that therefore the' fundamentalist are 'uncivilized,' 'roguish,' 'crazy' and 'unpredictible." While fundamentalist ideolggy is profoundly antagonistic to western values, it is also at once complex, coherent, and internally consistent. The fundamentalists are not emotional fanatics; they are calculating, rational actors. Their objectives are clear: the establishment of Islamic governments across the globe, and the elimination of Western-capitalist and Eastern-communist influence in the Muslim world. Their greatest weapons are not military or political, they are ideological. Consequently, A understanding the context and content of fundamentalist ideology is a pre-requisite to responding effectively to the challenge which they pose to democratic societies."
Pirate activity in the Horn of Africa is expected to increase through 2009 as weather conditions become more favorable. Pirates have expanded operations, carrying out attacks farther from Somalia's coast, including near the Seychelles and Oman. While vessel speed remains a factor in vulnerability, pirates have boarded faster ships under optimal conditions. Nighttime attacks have risen slightly but most occur during daylight. Pirates do not use sophisticated targeting methods and generally attack ships opportunistically in known shipping lanes.
Naval participation in counter-piracy operations around the Horn of Africa has been a success, but does this mean a long-term commitment from governments, or will a change in priorities mean that they leave before the situation is solved? IHS Jane's Defence Weekly Naval Editor Dr Lee Willett examines the issues.
The document discusses the territorial disputes over the South China Sea among several countries. There are disputes over small islands and vast underwater energy resources in the sea. China claims most of the sea based on the vague "Nine-dash Line," but an international tribunal rejected this claim. The disputes risk escalating into military conflicts as countries seek to protect their interests in the strategically and economically important waters. Crafting an innovative international agreement will be key to resolving the long-running disputes over the South China Sea.
1) The document summarizes the Deepwater Horizon oil spill that occurred in 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico. It describes how the spill began with an explosion on the oil rig that killed 11 people and led to millions of barrels of oil leaking into the Gulf over months.
2) It then provides background on oil drilling and the components involved, including drill strings and blowout preventers (BOPs). It suggests that problems with the improperly assembled drill string and failed BOP were major causes of the spill.
3) The document also discusses the series of cost-cutting shortcuts and errors made by BP and allowed by the US government, including using fewer cement barriers and centralizers than recommended, failing to properly
This document summarizes trends in energy production and transportation along the Gulf of Mexico region. It discusses how the growth of petroleum, natural gas, and coal production has impacted ports and terminals in the Gulf. Specifically, it outlines how the shale boom has increased domestic oil and gas production, reducing imports. However, liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf are expected to rise as new export terminals are approved and the expanded Panama Canal allows larger tankers. The document provides statistics on production volumes and refining capacity in Gulf states to support its analysis of changing energy flows.
“Government's first duty is to protect the people, not run their lives.” – Ronald Reagan
“The care of human life and happiness, and not their destruction, is the first and only object of good government.”
– Thomas Jefferson
“Loyalty to the Nation all the time, loyalty to the Government when it deserves it.” – Mark Twain
Effects of the Iranian Crisis on Oil TradingInvestingTips
http://www.ProfitableInvestingTips.com - Effects of the Iranian Crisis on Oil Trading - The most recent effects of the Iranian crisis on oil trading have been a rise in the prices of oil futures. Europe is edging closer to an agreement to forestall a Greek debt default. The US economic picture is slowly brightening. Both of these factors would tend to drive up the prices of oil futures. However, the effects of the Iranian crisis on oil trading may be stronger at this moment. The concern is that Iran may cause problems with shipping in the Straits of Hormuz, the bottleneck of the Persian Gulf. Although the US Navy patrols the area, tanker captains and owners of oil tankers might be concerned about passing through the straits if they expect military activity. Thus traders’ focus has moved from trading a Chinese stock decline or European Central Bank loans to effects of the Iranian crisis on oil trading.
Although Iran does not have the firepower to totally blockage to Straits of Hormuz, any attempt would like bring commercial shipping to a halt. Because Iran holds the Eastern shore of the straits it would not even need to launch a boat but rather threaten to fire rockets or artillery at passing ships. The issue with Iran is that the nation appears to be pursuing nuclear weapons. It is using high tech centrifuges to enrich uranium to levels in excess of what it needs for nuclear power. The country has refused to let international inspection teams in to verify its claims that it is not enriching to weapons grade uranium. Responses have been largely diplomatic until recently when both the European Union and the United States have applied sanctions such as restricting the transfer of funds through their banks and even freezing offshore Iranian assets. Recently the European Union announced that as of July of 2012 it would no longer purchase Iranian oil. In addition clandestine activities carried out against Iran by unknown persons include assassination of nuclear scientists, a computer virus that wrecked high tech centrifuges, and explosions that have destroyed facilities and killed technical staff. With all of this as a backdrop the effects of the Iranian crisis on oil trading have been volatility and recently, increased prices. Traders use both fundamental and technical analysis in trading oil futures. The fundamentals are that there may be a scarcity of oil for the recovering economies of Europe and North America. The technical aspect is that markets may become spooked if things get hot in the Persian Gulf.
A lower level of harassment could also help Iran put pressure on the international community to leave it and its nuclear ambitions alone. All Iran needs to do is inspect every single commercial vessel that passes and delay transit interminably. Persian Gulf oil suppliers such as Saudi Arabia have promised to increase production in response to any reduction in production from Iran. However, oil that cannot pass out of the Persian Gulf ...
Fast Facts in Five: The Maritime IndustryCIT Group
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The fundamental focus of maritime strategy centres on the control of human activity at sea. There is the effort to establish control for oneself or to deny it to an enemy and there is the effort to use the control that one has in order to achieve specific ends. The security of Sri Lanka derives from a combination of factors, including the maintenance of a highly competent naval force equipped with advanced technology and structured for unique geostrategic environment. Sri Lanka is now in the midst of a transition from a focus on internal security to an external security. The maritime strategy should be as much as it has to deal with the linkage between national strategic interests of the country. This may be the most appropriate time for Sri Lanka to re-appreciate our national interests and to derive National and Military objectives based on those interests.
The document discusses the Battle of Chosin Reservoir during the Korean War. It describes how 15,000 US soldiers and Marines fought against 120,000 Chinese soldiers to evacuate 98,000 refugees while inflicting heavy losses on the Chinese forces. The Marines successfully led a retreat of 78 miles to the sea against numerically superior Chinese forces in severe winter weather conditions, becoming one of the most storied exploits in Marine Corps history.
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Is Iran fighting on the basis of Strait of HormunzDr. Amit Joshi
The document discusses the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. It notes that Iran has threatened multiple times to close the Strait in response to potential Western attacks or sanctions on its oil exports, which most of pass through the Strait. The U.S. and other countries have warned Iran against attempting to close the Strait and have deployed naval forces to the region to demonstrate their ability to reopen it if needed. Tensions have escalated over recent Iranian threats in response to tightening Western oil sanctions.
This document discusses future developments and trends in the marine economy. It notes that global trade and maritime transportation will continue growing due to factors like globalization and rising incomes in emerging economies. Usage of maritime resources like fish and deep-sea minerals will also grow to meet rising demand for food and materials. Offshore energy production from sources like oil, gas, wind, and ocean currents is poised to expand significantly. The document also points out that competition for marine resources and space will intensify between countries, corporations and industries. Rising fuel costs and environmental regulations also present challenges for maritime industries.
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Maritime security is an umbrella term that organizes issues in the maritime domain linked to national security, the marine environment, economic development, and human security. It is defined based on the society using the term and refers to challenges to maritime territory. Maritime security elements include international peace, sovereignty, sea lines of communication security, crime prevention at sea, resource security, environmental protection, and security of seafarers and fishermen. Maritime security has become vital in world politics as it relates to national and human security and contains challenges like trafficking, terrorism, threats at sea, illegal fishing, and environmental exploitation. Pakistan faces challenges to its long coastline with sparse infrastructure and must increase its naval capabilities to protect its maritime interests,
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Similar to Effect of-closure-of-the-strait-of-hormuz (20)
BP G U L F O F M E X I C O O I L S P I L L I S S U E S
Effect of-closure-of-the-strait-of-hormuz
1. UNCLASSIFIED
Economic Effects of a Major SLOC Closure
The transportation component of global economic system relies on two things: 1)
commerce traveling through certain sea lines of communication (SLOCs); and 2) key ports such
as Singapore, Rotterdam, and Los Angeles/Long Beach, where this commerce is collected and
distributed. Together, these SLOCs and ports present opportunities for state and non-state actors
who seek to disrupt the global system. The U.S. and its partners’ have a vested interest in
responding to any such disruption of the system in a manner that restores confidence and the flow
of commerce as quickly as possible. However, the response must be careful to avoid
exacerbating an already unstable situation. In the past when the flow of commerce was disrupted,
the global system has shown an ability to adapt by rerouting commerce, energy and resources.
Typically this has happened faster than nations can respond politically or militarily. While the
system does manage to continue to function, for political reasons, the U.S. and its partners are
expected to take action to restore the status quo.
Global Commerce
In today’s globalised world it is estimated that 90 percent of global trade is carried by
sea.1 These goods are carried by the world’s trading fleet which consists of over 50,000 ships of
approximately 690 million gross tons (GT) of displacement.2 The massive size of this fleet
offsets transport costs. For instance, the cost to a U.S. consumer at the gas pump of transporting
crude oil from the Middle East is less than one U.S. cent per liter.3
Sea Lines of Communication
The arteries of commerce that theses vessels transit daily are known as sea lines of
communications (SLOCs). These SLOCs narrow in a few areas producing tightly organized
chokepoints that are vulnerable to disruption by either an attack from the surrounding land or a
blockage in the water. The fact that most of these chokepoints are located in political hotspots
adds to their vulnerability. As western nations’ dependence on foreign sources of energy has
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grown in the past several, some of these chokepoints have taken on a strategic importance. The
major chokepoints that today’s system depends on are: the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of
Malacca, Bab el-Mandeb, the Suez Canal, the Bosporus, and the Panama Canal. Together these
six chokepoints handle 35 million barrels (Mb/d) of crude per day. The Straits of Hormuz and the
Strait of Malacca alone account for 60 percent of global oil transit.4
With the exception of the Strait of Hormuz, which will be addressed separately, evidence
has shown that an interruption in any of the strategic chokepoints mentioned will have a minimal
economic impact on the global system. The support for this assertion comes from recent events
involving piracy in the Gulf of Aden. Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Gulf of Aden to the
Red Sea, handles 3.3 million barrels of oil per day.5 In 2005 ships transiting the Gulf of Aden
began to be attacked by groups of individuals on speed boats armed with small arms and RPGs.
By 2008 pirate attacks had become a daily occurrence and captured ships were being ransomed
for millions of dollars. In October of that year the piracy in the Gulf of Aden had become such a
problem that some shipping employers and unions, among other nations, had agreed to declare it
a warlike operation area. This doubled the pay of seafarers.6
Another consequence of the regional piracy was a rerouting of vessels. Some bulk
shipping companies instructed their masters to keep away from the Suez Canal and sail around
the Cape of Good Hope. Using this alternate route can create a substantial increase in distance,
up to 6,000 miles depending on the destination, at a cost of $5,000-$6,000 per day.7
To determine the economic impact of this detour crude oil prices provide an appropriate
barometer. Despite the fact that shippers were choosing to make a 6,000 mile detour, crude oil
prices plummeted even though the piracy problem did not abate. From a high in July 2008 of
$147 per barrel, oil was being traded in the mid $30 range on February 17, 2009.8 This is a 77
percent drop in price in arguably the most serious global interruption to the flow of oil since the
Persian Gulf War in 1991. It is clear from this example that there are far more powerful market
forces controlling the price of oil than the effect of interruptions to the supply chain. A reduction
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in global demand for crude caused by the global financial crisis has undone a 10 year climb in oil
prices in slightly more than six months.9
Of the six chokepoints mentioned, only the Strait of Hormuz and the Bosporus do not
have alternate sea routes comparable to the Gulf of Aden; making a closure of any of them
merely an economic inconvenience. The Strait of Malacca, which is vital to China, has at least
three alternate routes through the islands of Oceania that are marginally longer, and a fourth
option of going around the Australian continent. Additionally evidenced by the Gulf of Aden
situation, the shipping industry will adapt faster than nations will in resolving the problem. The
navies of the world will, without question, be called upon to restore the status quo, but with any
situation of such an international character, an organized multilateral response will require
extensive political cooperation. The U.S. Navy with its international organizational experience is
uniquely equipped to handle this sort of effort. Its role will be critical as it has been in
coordinating the effort to stop piracy in the Gulf of Aden.
The Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is altogether exceptional. Approximately 88 percent of the
petroleum exported from the Persian Gulf nation’s transits through the Strait of Hormuz - 5.3
million barrels per day.10 The Strait itself is 180 kilometers long and at its narrowest point is 45
kilometers wide. The two shipping lanes are 3.2 kilometers wide with a separation zone of 3.2
kilometers.11
The most often mentioned scenario for the closing of this strait is mining by Iran. From
a tactical perspective Iran has the capability to rapidly mine the strait and cut off shipping for a
time period as long as three to four months depending on how events unfold. Some experts, such
as Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, maintain that Iran
could only close the strait from a few days to two weeks. This, however, seems implausible
given the fact that most of the U.S. Navy’s mine countermeasure assets can only operate in a
permissible environment.12 Iranian offensive coastal assets capable of attacking these vessels
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would have to be eliminated before any operation could commence. Considering that the Iranians
would be prepared for the inevitable military response ahead of time, and the ruggedness of the
terrain north of the Strait, which could be used to conceal Iranian installations, this mission could
take months.
With the strait closed few other alternatives remain. The Saudi pipeline for Persian Gulf
oil to the Port of Yanbu on the Red Sea is the next best option. Its maximum capacity is 4.8
Mb/d. Two other pipelines exist that link northern Iraq to Syria and Turkey, their combined
maximum capacity is approximately 3 Mb/d.13 In total, the alternate pipelines can accommodate
approximately 50 percent of the capacity of the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, a worst case
scenario would be a reduction of at least half the oil currently flowing from the Persian Gulf
being cut off for a minimum of three months.
The economic effects of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iranian mining would be
severe. However, this effect must be put into context. Ultimately, Iran would pay the highest toll
for such an action. The effect of a U.S. led response would be catastrophic to the Iranian
economy. During the Tanker Wars of the late 1980s, the U.S. responded to Iranian mining with
strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure and military targets. U.S. retaliation to renewed aggression
would be similar if not more severe; the impact on the Iranian economy would be felt for years to
come. Additionally, recent Iranian attempts to frame itself as a regional hegemonic power would
be erased as a chorus of regional and international condemnation of its actions arose.
In economic terms, the rise in oil prices over the last several years peaking at nearly $150
per barrel had little effect on consumer demand for oil. With current oil prices trading in the $30-
$40 range, a doubling in price would put prices back to slightly less than half of their recent
highs. It is doubtful that this would have a drastic impact.
The most likely circumstance for Iranian action to block the Strait of Hormuz would be in
the context of a wider conflict. If a situation were to occur where a broad war in the region took
place, it is possible that the Iranians may mine the strait in an effort to inflict damage to its
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opposition. However, if such a conflict were to occur global oil prices would already be elevated
due to the conflict itself. Therefore, while the Iranian threat represents a severe vulnerability of
the world’s oil infrastructure, it is unlikely to occur.
Non-state actors may also wish to conduct operations in the Strait of Hormuz that would
affect international shipping. However, due to the size and unique oceanographic characteristics
of this strait, it seems unlikely that even a well equipped non-state actor would have the
resources, knowledge, and operational capability to conduct such an extensive operation. A non-
state actor attack would likely resemble the piracy in the Gulf of Aden; high profile, but
insufficient to totally shut down the area.
Weapons of Mass Destruction
While the full economic effects of a Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) attack are
extensive and beyond the scope of this paper a short evaluation is possible. Basically, it would
depend on the nature of the attack. A suicide attack by an actor either in an independent vessel on
a SLOC or detonating in the vicinity of a port facility would be severe in the vicinity of the
attack. However, other than a tightening of security by nations around the world, the global
effects would be minimal. This is a matter of individual port security.
On the other hand, a WMD detonation that originated from a device in a container or
planted in ship would be very different. The perpetrators would have had to circumvent
established security measures that are supposed to control how goods are packaged and shipped.
This would be catastrophic for the world economy. For example, if a container ship originating
in Indonesia was to be the carrier of a nuclear device that detonated in the port of Long Beach, all
confidence in security measures taken at the port of origin would be lost. Nations would take
extreme precautions to ensure that vessels entering their ports were safe. The effects of this
would extend well beyond the blast radius. What would be the length of time and the cost of
nations implementing their own 100 percent screening measures at safe distance from their ports?
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Most of the world’s good and resources come from third world nations that do not have that
money to spend.
The U.S. Navy’s Political vs. Economic Utility
This paper has asserted that the global system is able to adapt and maintain a near status
quo to most interruptions. Therefore, what is the U.S. Navy’s role in these scenarios? Given that
market forces and individual companies will adapt to an interruption faster than a military
response, the U.S. Navy’s role will be predominantly a political coordination after an interruption
has occurred. It also fills what would otherwise be a power vacuum in various areas of the world.
One example of this is the role the U.S. Navy has played in the Persian Gulf for the last half
century. Its presence in the gulf has stopped any one nation from destabilizing the region despite
the fact that many of the Gulf nations have massive oil wealth but disproportionate ability to
defend themselves. When Saddam Hussein attempted to highjack the oil wealth of Kuwait in
1990, the U.S. mobilized a global coalition to free Kuwait. Upon the war’s conclusion, the U.S.
Navy prevented Saddam from again threatening its neighbors by enforcing the no fly zones.
Conclusion
The world’s sea lines of communication are the lifeblood of a world wide system that has
reached an unprecedented level of interdependence. The Achilles heel of these is a vulnerability
to attack at a few strategic chokepoints. However, if one these chokepoints were attacked, all but
two, the Bosporus and the Strait of Hormuz, would be able to respond with little to no impact on
the system. The effect of closing the Bosporus would be predominantly local. The effect of
closing the Strait of Hormuz would severely interrupt the global flow of oil. However, in the case
of the Strait of Hormuz one must consider the likelihood of a complete shut down by a capable
entity. This is not high, as it would damage all parties, most of all the initiator.
Therefore, if the global system of seaborne commerce is not particularly vulnerable to
interruption, what then is the justification for a large naval presence in many parts of the globe?
The U.S. Navy is today patrolling the waters of the Gulf of Aden with a global coalition that it is
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responsible for coordinating. This is an action that demonstrates the diplomatic skill and
professionalism that U.S. Navy embodies. Combined Task Force 51 has had a long history of
incorporating dozens of different navies into a common goal. Even at times including nations
that are not part of the task force, as is currently that case with the Chinese piracy task force.
In a globalized environment, the U.S. Navy is an arbiter, a coordinator, and a positive
political representative to the many nations that it interacts with on a daily basis. It has
relationships with nations in all parts of the world helping them to patrol their own waters, which
keeps the global maritime environment accessible to all. The U.S. Navy does not ensure global
economic security on the high seas; it ensures that the political relationships exist so that when
global security is threatened, an effective multinational force stands ready to restore it.
1
IMO Factsheet,7
2
Ibid.,8
3
Ibid,9
4
Straights, Passages and Chokepoints, 365.
5
Ibid, 366.
6
“Gulf of Aden declared a warlike operation area”
7
“ Operators opt for Cape of Good Hope rather than Suez.”
8
“Oil slips as demand for crude wanes.”
9
http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
10
Straights, Passages and Chokepoints, 367
11
Closing Time, 86.
12
Ibid, 84.
13
Straights, Passages and Chokepoints, 367.
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