Economists found that hot weather leads to diminished sexual activity and lower birth rates about 9-10 months later. When temperatures exceed 80 degrees Fahrenheit, birth rates drop 0.4%. While subsequent months see some rebound, it only accounts for 32% of the decrease. Climate change may exacerbate this issue, with projections of 64 more days above 80 degrees by 2070-2099 resulting in a 2.6% decline in US birth rates. Access to air conditioning helps offset some of the fertility impact of hot weather.

1. Economists warn of less sex on a
warmer planet
Hot Weather Leads To Diminished Coital Frequency, Causing Decline In
Birth Rate
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2. Contd…
Climate change has been blamed for many things over the years. Never, until
now, has anyone thought it was possible to see it as a kind of contraceptive.
Hot weather leads to diminished “coital frequency ,“ according to a new
working paper put out by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Three
economists studied 80 years of US fertility and temperature data and found
that when it's hotter than 80 degrees Fahrenheit, a large decline in births
follow within 10 months. Wouldbe parents tend not to make up for lost time
in subsequent, cooler months.
An extra “hot day“ leads to a 0.4% drop in birth rates nine months later, or
1,165 fewer deliveries across the US, economists found. A rebound in
subsequent months makes up just 32% of the gap.
The researchers, who hail from Tulane University, the University of California
Santa Barbara, and the University of Central Florida, believe that their
findings give policymakers three major things to think about.
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3. Contd…
Birth rates do not bounce back completely after heat waves
As summers heat up, developed countries may see already low birth rates
sink even lower. Plunging birth rates can play havoc with an economy .
China's leaders recently acknowledged this by ditching the longtime one-
child policy and doubling the number of children couples are allowed to
have. A sub-replacement US birthrate means fewer workers to pay social
security benefits for retirees, among other consequences.
More autumn conceptions means more deliveries in summer
Infants experience a higher rate of poor health with summer births, “though
the reasons for worse health in the summer are not well-established,“ the
authors write.One possibility may be “third-trimester exposure to high
temperatures.“
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4. Contd…
Air conditioning might prove to be an aphrodisiac
Control over the climate at home might make a difference. The researchers suggest
that the rise of air conditioning may have helped offset some heat-related fertility
losses in the US since 1970s.
The paper's title is about as lascivious as the National Bureau of Economic Research
gets: “Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks, Climate Change, and Dynamic
Adjustments in Birth Rates“.
The researchers assume that climate change will proceed according to the most
severe scenarios, with no substantial efforts to reduce emissions. The scenario they
use projects that from 2070 to 2099, the US may have 64 more days above 80F
than in the baseline period from 1990 to 2002, which had 31. Due to this, the US
may see a 2.6% decline in its birth rate, or 107,000 fewer deliveries a year.Just
when you thought climate change policy couldn't get any less sexy.
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