The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.
The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.
The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.
- Risk aversion is high, weighing on growth as investors remain cautious after the financial crisis. A recession in the US cannot be ruled out. Rising unemployment is causing the Riksbank to lower interest rates.
- The Nordic economies are still relatively strong, but they are small, open economies that will be affected by weaker international demand.
- Growth forecasts for the US and Europe have been revised down significantly. Several highly indebted Eurozone countries may enter recession in the coming quarters. Fiscal consolidation efforts have been stepped up.
This document provides an economic outlook for various regions and countries. It notes that there are signs of improvement in the global economy, but the recovery will be slow. Monetary policy will remain expansive for much of the world over the forecast period, while fiscal policy and weak credit growth will dampen the global recovery in the near term. For the euro area, the outlook is for a gradual recovery after a decline in GDP in early 2012, helped by a weaker euro improving competitiveness but also making high oil prices more negative. Germany is expected to continue leading growth in Europe.
- World economic growth is expected to continue despite tightening measures in response to rising commodity prices and inflation.
- Nordic economies are performing strongly with good public finances and trade balances contributing to continued favorable growth.
- Swedish economy is heading towards a period of high growth. Central banks are increasing interest rates to focus on inflation as commodity prices remain high.
Ekonomiska utsikter, januari 2011, Nordea BankNordea Bank
The document discusses the economic outlook for various countries and regions. It predicts continued global economic growth in 2011-2012 despite debt problems in Europe. The US economy is expected to grow faster than previously predicted due to additional fiscal stimulus. Emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil are also expected to see strong growth, but may need to tighten monetary policy to avoid overheating. Commodity prices pose a risk to the global recovery. Overall the assessment is that the world economy is back on track, but risks remain, particularly in solving Europe's structural debt problems.
Economic Outlook, January 2011, Nordea BankNordea Bank
The document summarizes the economic outlook for various regions and countries in January 2011. It finds that the global economy recovered better than expected in 2010, led by strong growth in the US, Asia, and Germany. However, the sovereign debt crisis continued to impact the euro area. The report revises up its 2011 global growth forecast but sees the year as a transition to slower growth, challenged by fiscal consolidation in Europe and rising commodity prices. Overall, the recovery is expected to continue but with significant differences between countries in the euro area.
Ekonomiska Utsikter, Nordea, September 2010Nordea Bank
- The Swedish economy is picking up steam after falling sharply during the financial crisis. GDP growth is projected to be 4.2% in 2010 and around 3% in 2011-2012.
- While uncertainty remains high globally, most major economies are expected to avoid recession. The US economy in particular is forecast to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace, supported by household balance sheet repair and accommodative monetary policy.
- The euro area recovery is surprising strong, led by Germany, and growth is expected to continue despite fiscal consolidation efforts and sovereign debt issues that remain a risk.
The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.
The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.
- Risk aversion is high, weighing on growth as investors remain cautious after the financial crisis. A recession in the US cannot be ruled out. Rising unemployment is causing the Riksbank to lower interest rates.
- The Nordic economies are still relatively strong, but they are small, open economies that will be affected by weaker international demand.
- Growth forecasts for the US and Europe have been revised down significantly. Several highly indebted Eurozone countries may enter recession in the coming quarters. Fiscal consolidation efforts have been stepped up.
This document provides an economic outlook for various regions and countries. It notes that there are signs of improvement in the global economy, but the recovery will be slow. Monetary policy will remain expansive for much of the world over the forecast period, while fiscal policy and weak credit growth will dampen the global recovery in the near term. For the euro area, the outlook is for a gradual recovery after a decline in GDP in early 2012, helped by a weaker euro improving competitiveness but also making high oil prices more negative. Germany is expected to continue leading growth in Europe.
- World economic growth is expected to continue despite tightening measures in response to rising commodity prices and inflation.
- Nordic economies are performing strongly with good public finances and trade balances contributing to continued favorable growth.
- Swedish economy is heading towards a period of high growth. Central banks are increasing interest rates to focus on inflation as commodity prices remain high.
Ekonomiska utsikter, januari 2011, Nordea BankNordea Bank
The document discusses the economic outlook for various countries and regions. It predicts continued global economic growth in 2011-2012 despite debt problems in Europe. The US economy is expected to grow faster than previously predicted due to additional fiscal stimulus. Emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil are also expected to see strong growth, but may need to tighten monetary policy to avoid overheating. Commodity prices pose a risk to the global recovery. Overall the assessment is that the world economy is back on track, but risks remain, particularly in solving Europe's structural debt problems.
Economic Outlook, January 2011, Nordea BankNordea Bank
The document summarizes the economic outlook for various regions and countries in January 2011. It finds that the global economy recovered better than expected in 2010, led by strong growth in the US, Asia, and Germany. However, the sovereign debt crisis continued to impact the euro area. The report revises up its 2011 global growth forecast but sees the year as a transition to slower growth, challenged by fiscal consolidation in Europe and rising commodity prices. Overall, the recovery is expected to continue but with significant differences between countries in the euro area.
Ekonomiska Utsikter, Nordea, September 2010Nordea Bank
- The Swedish economy is picking up steam after falling sharply during the financial crisis. GDP growth is projected to be 4.2% in 2010 and around 3% in 2011-2012.
- While uncertainty remains high globally, most major economies are expected to avoid recession. The US economy in particular is forecast to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace, supported by household balance sheet repair and accommodative monetary policy.
- The euro area recovery is surprising strong, led by Germany, and growth is expected to continue despite fiscal consolidation efforts and sovereign debt issues that remain a risk.
The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.
DJ Ownbey, is an experienced Love Psychic & Relationship Coach who is regularly consulted by stockbrokers, celebrities and socialites from all four corners of the world. DJ Ownbey is a 4th generation psychic and uses his abilities to help clients understand what they are facing in the present and what lies ahead in the future.
The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.
Bathochromic shift in photo-absorption spectra of organic dye sensitizers thr...Narges Mohamadi
This document discusses the rational design of new organic dye sensitizers for dye-sensitized solar cells using computational methods. It begins by noting the increasing global energy demand and limitations of current energy sources. It then provides background on dye-sensitized solar cells and their advantages over traditional silicon solar cells. The objectives are to design dyes with broader absorption spectra extending into the near-infrared, reduced HOMO-LUMO gaps, and suitability for solar cells. Several dye structures are computationally modified and evaluated using density functional theory and time-dependent DFT to obtain optical and electronic properties. Promising new dyes with red-shifted absorption are identified.
Teachers’ perceptions of continuous professional development training.Mei Lick Cheok
This document discusses a study on Chinese school teachers' perceptions of continuous professional development (CPD) training provided by the Melaka Teacher Training Institute in Malaysia. The study explored how teachers perceive the training, their blended learning experience in terms of satisfaction, collaboration and social presence, and principles of effective CPD. Data was collected through questionnaires, reflections, and action plans from teachers and analyzed for themes. Overall, teachers found the training helped their personal and professional development, but noted areas for improvement in ICT integration support and making courses more tailored to teachers' needs.
Study: The Future of VR, AR and Self-Driving CarsLinkedIn
We asked LinkedIn members worldwide about their levels of interest in the latest wave of technology: whether they’re using wearables, and whether they intend to buy self-driving cars and VR headsets as they become available. We asked them too about their attitudes to technology and to the growing role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the devices that they use. The answers were fascinating – and in many cases, surprising.
This SlideShare explores the full results of this study, including detailed market-by-market breakdowns of intention levels for each technology – and how attitudes change with age, location and seniority level. If you’re marketing a tech brand – or planning to use VR and wearables to reach a professional audience – then these are insights you won’t want to miss.
Ekonomiska Utsikter, Nordea Bank, september 2012Nordea Bank
The document provides an economic outlook for the world and various countries/regions. It notes that the world economy is growing slowly but steadily, while the Euro area is facing recession risks again. It also mentions that while Norway's economy remains strong, weakness is seen in Sweden, Finland, and Denmark. Key points covered for individual countries/regions include slow but positive growth expected in the US; restoring confidence as key for the Euro area; and economic stability remaining a priority for China.
The document provides an economic outlook for various countries and regions. It discusses the following key points:
1) Global economic growth is expected to continue despite tightening measures in response to rising commodity prices and inflation risks.
2) Nordic economies are performing strongly with good public finances and trade balances supporting continued favorable growth.
3) Several central banks are expected to raise interest rates to fight inflation and avoid prices becoming entrenched at too high a level.
Economic Outlook, Nordea, September 2010Nordea Bank
The economic outlook document provides the following key points in 3 sentences:
1) Global economic growth is expected to moderate in the coming years from the strong rebound in 2010, with risks including further slowdowns in the US and China and potential commodity price shocks.
2) The Nordic economies have shifted into higher gear after a slow start in 2010, supported by improving exports and domestic demand, with healthy public finances reducing the need for fiscal austerity.
3) While the Eurozone recovery continues, led by Germany, growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2010 as fiscal tightening takes effect across countries and the US economic leadership in driving global growth may weaken.
The document discusses the state of global markets in 2013. It finds that the global economy is vulnerable to deflation spreading from Europe, where GDP growth has steadily declined since 1995. Several European countries are experiencing high unemployment and declining corporate lending. Central banks are engaging in currency devaluations in an attempt to stimulate growth, but this risks exacerbating the global deflationary environment. Gold and silver prices have declined substantially since 2011 peaks, in line with Elliott Wave analysis, as speculative fervor in these metals recedes.
This document provides a summary of key trends in sustainable development for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) based on available statistical data. It focuses on demographic trends, climate change, disaster management, trade and finance, tourism, energy, natural resources, and social development. The summary highlights that while progress has been made in some areas, SIDS continue to face significant vulnerabilities and challenges due to their small size, remoteness, reliance on narrow economic bases, and exposure to environmental risks like climate change and natural disasters. Significant further efforts are still needed to achieve sustainable development goals in SIDS.
This document reviews the tax and licensing regimes for oil development in the UK, Norway, Newfoundland, and Falkland Islands.
- The UK uses work program licenses and focuses on income tax (50%). Norway also uses work programs but has higher income tax (78%) plus carbon tax and state participation.
- Newfoundland uses bidding and work programs, with royalties up to 7.5% of gross revenue plus 30% income tax. The Falkland Islands mainly uses negotiated work programs, with 9% royalties and 25% income tax plus acreage rentals.
- Trends seen are early revenue promotion for undeveloped areas and higher later revenues for mature areas. Less cumulative taxes
This document analyzes the financial statements of Joy Global, Inc. and compares it to two competitors, Caterpillar and Komatsu. It provides background on Joy Global's operating sectors and benchmarking rationale. Key findings from the statement analysis include Joy Global having higher profitability than competitors and increasing retained earnings and cash balances. Ratio analysis shows Joy Global has the strongest liquidity and lower leverage than Caterpillar. Overall trends point to continued growth potential for Joy Global.
This report analyzes the youth labor market in Sierra Leone and evaluates 8 business sectors for their potential to be launched as microfranchise businesses: mobile banking services, ice, water sachets, popsicles and frozen treats, salon services, baked goods, poultry, and mobile phone credit sales. It was prepared by Oakley1008 for the International Rescue Committee to address high youth unemployment in Sierra Leone, where 70% of the population is unemployed and 34% are youth between ages 15-35. The report includes a market and industry analysis of each sector and evaluates them based on their management team potential, scalability, and profitability for a microfranchise model.
This document provides an overview and analysis of Canada's state of trade in 2011. It includes sections on the global economic performance, world trade developments, Canada's economic performance, Canada's trade performance, key developments in Canadian merchandise trade, and Canada's investment performance. The document was prepared by the Office of the Chief Economist of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade and contains contributions from several authors.
The document discusses the oil and gas sector in Vietnam, which is seen as an area of opportunity. Vietnam has oil and gas reserves of 270-500 million tons of oil and 1.3 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. The oil and gas sector involves several international companies and state-owned firms. While there are opportunities in exploration and production, the sector also faces challenges such as aging infrastructure and disputes over offshore areas. Overall, the oil and gas industry in Vietnam has potential for growth but requires continued investment and resolution of issues to be fully realized.
The document is a report by Gallup on the state of the global workplace in 2023. It provides insights from Gallup's annual study of employee experiences around the world. In 2022, employee engagement and job opportunities rebounded globally, returning to pre-pandemic levels as more regions recovered economically. However, global worker stress remained at a historic high even as other negative pandemic-related emotions subsided, possibly due to challenges from inflation amid the recovery. Addressing employee well-being and engagement should be a priority for leaders seeking to make the most of the economic recovery.
state-of-the-global-workplace-2023-download.pdfNeela S
This document summarizes the findings of Gallup's 2022 State of the Global Workplace report. It examines employee engagement, job opportunities, and daily emotions experienced by workers worldwide based on the largest ongoing study of the global employee experience. In 2022, employee engagement and perceived job opportunities rebounded globally compared to pre-pandemic levels, though worker stress remained high. Regional differences in the recovery of the employee experience are also discussed.
This document discusses pension trends in emerging markets, specifically the rise of defined contribution (DC) pension plans in Central and Eastern Europe and Asia. It notes that these regions have undertaken more extensive pension reforms than Western countries by establishing mandatory DC plans to improve portability and transparency. This will lead to rapid growth of pension assets but also poses challenges regarding financial education, plan design, regulation, and product development to ensure adequate retirement incomes.
The role of banks in financing the agriculture and livestock sectors - Sept 2016Vipul Arora
This document is a report on the role of banks in financing the agriculture and livestock sectors. It provides an executive summary and then details the methodology used for the study, which involved researching banks in multiple countries. The report contains a global analysis section that provides key quantitative data on banks' exposure to agriculture. It also evaluates banks' policies for the agriculture sector and their ties to controversial companies. Finally, the report analyzes individual countries, assessing the agricultural lending trends and performance of banks in countries like Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, Indonesia and Japan.
Oil Security 2025: U.S. National Security Policy in an Era of Domestic Oil Ab...IR Smartt Inc.
The inaugural work of the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics, “Oil Security 2025: U.S. National Security Policy in an Era of Domestic Oil Abundance,” explores the potential for U.S. oil production to impact American foreign policy and national security in the coming decade and presents a series of recommendations designed to safeguard and advance U.S. interests.
America’s oil boom is shattering conventional wisdom and upending long-held beliefs. While much attention has been given to the economic impacts of this revolution, the national security, foreign policy, and geopolitical ramifications are today less well understood.
In their decades-long military and diplomatic careers, the members of the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics have experienced first-hand the heavy toll exacted by America’s dependence on oil. This dependence has influenced the country’s involvement in regions of the world that are often unstable and sometimes hostile to American interests.
“Oil Security 2025” presents a scenario-based analysis to help explore the likely impacts of rising U.S. oil production on a host of countries and regions across the globe, specifically the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and China. The scenarios comprise a combination of low and high cases for global oil demand and global oil supply, allowing rising U.S. oil production to be analyzed within the appropriate context of a global oil market. A group of “wildcards”—difficult-to-predict developments that could have a significant impact on either global oil supply or demand—are presented alongside the scenarios.
The results of this analysis show that the global impacts of rising U.S. oil production depend greatly upon the assumptions made regarding the global oil demand and supply outlook. Ultimately, regardless of the direction the global oil market takes, the importance of oil to the U.S. economy and the global economy will remain beyond dispute. The most important potential implications for U.S. policymakers are highlighted in detail, and the Commission makes a suite of policy recommendations. These recommendations—organized into four sections of policy focus—Global, Middle East, China, and Domestic—aim to better position the United States in the future by focusing on policy changes in the national security, diplomacy, and energy spheres that will strengthen the country’s capability to minimize global oil supply disruptions, enhance its resiliency in the face of any such disruption and bolster its response capabilities.
Economic outlook de Credito y Caucion - Mayo 2017Ignacio Jimenez
Repunte cíclico del comercio global pese a la incertidumbre y la debilidad estructural
El último Economic Outlook difundido por Crédito y Caución muestra una mejora de sus perspectivas económicas mundiales, pero resalta las debilidades estructurales no resueltas y el aumento de la incertidumbre.
The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.
DJ Ownbey, is an experienced Love Psychic & Relationship Coach who is regularly consulted by stockbrokers, celebrities and socialites from all four corners of the world. DJ Ownbey is a 4th generation psychic and uses his abilities to help clients understand what they are facing in the present and what lies ahead in the future.
The Economic Outlook is an internationally respected report on the state of the global economies with an extra focus on the Nordic markets, as well as the Baltic, Polish, Russian and key emerging markets plus the global oil and commodity markets. It is published twice a year by the renowned team of analysts and economists at Nordea Markets and supplemented with an additional two global and Nordic updates. It is published in English as well as the four Nordic languages.
Bathochromic shift in photo-absorption spectra of organic dye sensitizers thr...Narges Mohamadi
This document discusses the rational design of new organic dye sensitizers for dye-sensitized solar cells using computational methods. It begins by noting the increasing global energy demand and limitations of current energy sources. It then provides background on dye-sensitized solar cells and their advantages over traditional silicon solar cells. The objectives are to design dyes with broader absorption spectra extending into the near-infrared, reduced HOMO-LUMO gaps, and suitability for solar cells. Several dye structures are computationally modified and evaluated using density functional theory and time-dependent DFT to obtain optical and electronic properties. Promising new dyes with red-shifted absorption are identified.
Teachers’ perceptions of continuous professional development training.Mei Lick Cheok
This document discusses a study on Chinese school teachers' perceptions of continuous professional development (CPD) training provided by the Melaka Teacher Training Institute in Malaysia. The study explored how teachers perceive the training, their blended learning experience in terms of satisfaction, collaboration and social presence, and principles of effective CPD. Data was collected through questionnaires, reflections, and action plans from teachers and analyzed for themes. Overall, teachers found the training helped their personal and professional development, but noted areas for improvement in ICT integration support and making courses more tailored to teachers' needs.
Study: The Future of VR, AR and Self-Driving CarsLinkedIn
We asked LinkedIn members worldwide about their levels of interest in the latest wave of technology: whether they’re using wearables, and whether they intend to buy self-driving cars and VR headsets as they become available. We asked them too about their attitudes to technology and to the growing role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the devices that they use. The answers were fascinating – and in many cases, surprising.
This SlideShare explores the full results of this study, including detailed market-by-market breakdowns of intention levels for each technology – and how attitudes change with age, location and seniority level. If you’re marketing a tech brand – or planning to use VR and wearables to reach a professional audience – then these are insights you won’t want to miss.
Ekonomiska Utsikter, Nordea Bank, september 2012Nordea Bank
The document provides an economic outlook for the world and various countries/regions. It notes that the world economy is growing slowly but steadily, while the Euro area is facing recession risks again. It also mentions that while Norway's economy remains strong, weakness is seen in Sweden, Finland, and Denmark. Key points covered for individual countries/regions include slow but positive growth expected in the US; restoring confidence as key for the Euro area; and economic stability remaining a priority for China.
The document provides an economic outlook for various countries and regions. It discusses the following key points:
1) Global economic growth is expected to continue despite tightening measures in response to rising commodity prices and inflation risks.
2) Nordic economies are performing strongly with good public finances and trade balances supporting continued favorable growth.
3) Several central banks are expected to raise interest rates to fight inflation and avoid prices becoming entrenched at too high a level.
Economic Outlook, Nordea, September 2010Nordea Bank
The economic outlook document provides the following key points in 3 sentences:
1) Global economic growth is expected to moderate in the coming years from the strong rebound in 2010, with risks including further slowdowns in the US and China and potential commodity price shocks.
2) The Nordic economies have shifted into higher gear after a slow start in 2010, supported by improving exports and domestic demand, with healthy public finances reducing the need for fiscal austerity.
3) While the Eurozone recovery continues, led by Germany, growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2010 as fiscal tightening takes effect across countries and the US economic leadership in driving global growth may weaken.
The document discusses the state of global markets in 2013. It finds that the global economy is vulnerable to deflation spreading from Europe, where GDP growth has steadily declined since 1995. Several European countries are experiencing high unemployment and declining corporate lending. Central banks are engaging in currency devaluations in an attempt to stimulate growth, but this risks exacerbating the global deflationary environment. Gold and silver prices have declined substantially since 2011 peaks, in line with Elliott Wave analysis, as speculative fervor in these metals recedes.
This document provides a summary of key trends in sustainable development for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) based on available statistical data. It focuses on demographic trends, climate change, disaster management, trade and finance, tourism, energy, natural resources, and social development. The summary highlights that while progress has been made in some areas, SIDS continue to face significant vulnerabilities and challenges due to their small size, remoteness, reliance on narrow economic bases, and exposure to environmental risks like climate change and natural disasters. Significant further efforts are still needed to achieve sustainable development goals in SIDS.
This document reviews the tax and licensing regimes for oil development in the UK, Norway, Newfoundland, and Falkland Islands.
- The UK uses work program licenses and focuses on income tax (50%). Norway also uses work programs but has higher income tax (78%) plus carbon tax and state participation.
- Newfoundland uses bidding and work programs, with royalties up to 7.5% of gross revenue plus 30% income tax. The Falkland Islands mainly uses negotiated work programs, with 9% royalties and 25% income tax plus acreage rentals.
- Trends seen are early revenue promotion for undeveloped areas and higher later revenues for mature areas. Less cumulative taxes
This document analyzes the financial statements of Joy Global, Inc. and compares it to two competitors, Caterpillar and Komatsu. It provides background on Joy Global's operating sectors and benchmarking rationale. Key findings from the statement analysis include Joy Global having higher profitability than competitors and increasing retained earnings and cash balances. Ratio analysis shows Joy Global has the strongest liquidity and lower leverage than Caterpillar. Overall trends point to continued growth potential for Joy Global.
This report analyzes the youth labor market in Sierra Leone and evaluates 8 business sectors for their potential to be launched as microfranchise businesses: mobile banking services, ice, water sachets, popsicles and frozen treats, salon services, baked goods, poultry, and mobile phone credit sales. It was prepared by Oakley1008 for the International Rescue Committee to address high youth unemployment in Sierra Leone, where 70% of the population is unemployed and 34% are youth between ages 15-35. The report includes a market and industry analysis of each sector and evaluates them based on their management team potential, scalability, and profitability for a microfranchise model.
This document provides an overview and analysis of Canada's state of trade in 2011. It includes sections on the global economic performance, world trade developments, Canada's economic performance, Canada's trade performance, key developments in Canadian merchandise trade, and Canada's investment performance. The document was prepared by the Office of the Chief Economist of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade and contains contributions from several authors.
The document discusses the oil and gas sector in Vietnam, which is seen as an area of opportunity. Vietnam has oil and gas reserves of 270-500 million tons of oil and 1.3 trillion cubic meters of natural gas. The oil and gas sector involves several international companies and state-owned firms. While there are opportunities in exploration and production, the sector also faces challenges such as aging infrastructure and disputes over offshore areas. Overall, the oil and gas industry in Vietnam has potential for growth but requires continued investment and resolution of issues to be fully realized.
The document is a report by Gallup on the state of the global workplace in 2023. It provides insights from Gallup's annual study of employee experiences around the world. In 2022, employee engagement and job opportunities rebounded globally, returning to pre-pandemic levels as more regions recovered economically. However, global worker stress remained at a historic high even as other negative pandemic-related emotions subsided, possibly due to challenges from inflation amid the recovery. Addressing employee well-being and engagement should be a priority for leaders seeking to make the most of the economic recovery.
state-of-the-global-workplace-2023-download.pdfNeela S
This document summarizes the findings of Gallup's 2022 State of the Global Workplace report. It examines employee engagement, job opportunities, and daily emotions experienced by workers worldwide based on the largest ongoing study of the global employee experience. In 2022, employee engagement and perceived job opportunities rebounded globally compared to pre-pandemic levels, though worker stress remained high. Regional differences in the recovery of the employee experience are also discussed.
This document discusses pension trends in emerging markets, specifically the rise of defined contribution (DC) pension plans in Central and Eastern Europe and Asia. It notes that these regions have undertaken more extensive pension reforms than Western countries by establishing mandatory DC plans to improve portability and transparency. This will lead to rapid growth of pension assets but also poses challenges regarding financial education, plan design, regulation, and product development to ensure adequate retirement incomes.
The role of banks in financing the agriculture and livestock sectors - Sept 2016Vipul Arora
This document is a report on the role of banks in financing the agriculture and livestock sectors. It provides an executive summary and then details the methodology used for the study, which involved researching banks in multiple countries. The report contains a global analysis section that provides key quantitative data on banks' exposure to agriculture. It also evaluates banks' policies for the agriculture sector and their ties to controversial companies. Finally, the report analyzes individual countries, assessing the agricultural lending trends and performance of banks in countries like Belgium, Brazil, France, Germany, Indonesia and Japan.
Oil Security 2025: U.S. National Security Policy in an Era of Domestic Oil Ab...IR Smartt Inc.
The inaugural work of the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics, “Oil Security 2025: U.S. National Security Policy in an Era of Domestic Oil Abundance,” explores the potential for U.S. oil production to impact American foreign policy and national security in the coming decade and presents a series of recommendations designed to safeguard and advance U.S. interests.
America’s oil boom is shattering conventional wisdom and upending long-held beliefs. While much attention has been given to the economic impacts of this revolution, the national security, foreign policy, and geopolitical ramifications are today less well understood.
In their decades-long military and diplomatic careers, the members of the Commission on Energy and Geopolitics have experienced first-hand the heavy toll exacted by America’s dependence on oil. This dependence has influenced the country’s involvement in regions of the world that are often unstable and sometimes hostile to American interests.
“Oil Security 2025” presents a scenario-based analysis to help explore the likely impacts of rising U.S. oil production on a host of countries and regions across the globe, specifically the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and China. The scenarios comprise a combination of low and high cases for global oil demand and global oil supply, allowing rising U.S. oil production to be analyzed within the appropriate context of a global oil market. A group of “wildcards”—difficult-to-predict developments that could have a significant impact on either global oil supply or demand—are presented alongside the scenarios.
The results of this analysis show that the global impacts of rising U.S. oil production depend greatly upon the assumptions made regarding the global oil demand and supply outlook. Ultimately, regardless of the direction the global oil market takes, the importance of oil to the U.S. economy and the global economy will remain beyond dispute. The most important potential implications for U.S. policymakers are highlighted in detail, and the Commission makes a suite of policy recommendations. These recommendations—organized into four sections of policy focus—Global, Middle East, China, and Domestic—aim to better position the United States in the future by focusing on policy changes in the national security, diplomacy, and energy spheres that will strengthen the country’s capability to minimize global oil supply disruptions, enhance its resiliency in the face of any such disruption and bolster its response capabilities.
Economic outlook de Credito y Caucion - Mayo 2017Ignacio Jimenez
Repunte cíclico del comercio global pese a la incertidumbre y la debilidad estructural
El último Economic Outlook difundido por Crédito y Caución muestra una mejora de sus perspectivas económicas mundiales, pero resalta las debilidades estructurales no resueltas y el aumento de la incertidumbre.
Junto0 con el Reporte a la Nación de la ACFE. el reporte anual de Kroll se ha convertido en una de las mayores fuentes de sistematización y producción de información empírica sobre el fraude, su control y sus costos, a nivel global.
This document provides an overview of Trinidad and Tobago's investment climate and proposes a new approach to investment promotion. Chapter 1 describes the country's legislative framework governing investment and highlights its attractive economic, geographical and socio-political characteristics. Chapter 2 recommends introducing new comprehensive foreign investment legislation and outlines measures to revitalize the investment climate, such as adding domestic value, earmarking emerging sectors, expediting approvals, and improving training. The conclusion emphasizes that attracting foreign direct investment into the non-energy sector is critical for sustainable economic development as oil and gas resources are finite.
This document provides a summary and conclusions from a study on small-scale mining in six Southern African countries - Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Some key points:
- There are estimated to be over 1 million small-scale miners across the six countries, with the largest numbers in Tanzania and Zimbabwe.
- Artisanal mining makes significant contributions to GDP and employment in many countries.
- Most small-scale mining is informal and operates outside existing legislation and regulations.
- Women make up an estimated 25% of small-scale miners on average, though participation varies significantly between countries.
- Child labor is a widespread issue across the region
This document provides a summary and conclusions from a study on small-scale mining in six Southern African countries - Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Some key points:
- There are estimated to be over 1 million small-scale miners across the six countries, with the largest numbers in Tanzania (550,000) and Zimbabwe (over 350,000).
- Women make up an estimated 25% of small-scale miners on average but face gender imbalances, mostly working in subordinate roles.
- Child labor is a significant issue though accurate data is lacking. Children assist parents but some work full-time.
- Most (80-90
Similar to Økonomisk Oversikt, september 2012 (NO) (20)
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck mari...Donc Test
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
Discover essential details about Thailand's recent visa policy changes, tailored for tourists and students. Amit Kakkar Easy Visa provides a comprehensive overview of new requirements, application processes, and tips to ensure a smooth transition for all travelers.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Enhancing Asset Quality: Strategies for Financial Institutionsshruti1menon2
Ensuring robust asset quality is not just a mere aspect but a critical cornerstone for the stability and success of financial institutions worldwide. It serves as the bedrock upon which profitability is built and investor confidence is sustained. Therefore, in this presentation, we delve into a comprehensive exploration of strategies that can aid financial institutions in achieving and maintaining superior asset quality.
Detailed power point presentation on compound interest and how it is calculated
Økonomisk Oversikt, september 2012 (NO)
1. ■ Innhold
ØKONOMISK
OVERSIKT
SEPTEMBER 2012
Sakte fart, men ikke for Norge
■ Skjør oppgang
■ Veksten internasjonalt fortsetter, men i lav fart og på en gjørmet
vei. Euroområdet er igjen på vei ned i resesjon, mens farten i
amerikansk og internasjonal økonomi ellers har avtatt. Det er tegn
til noe bedre tider fremover, men usikkerheten er fortsatt stor.
Tygge havner rammes også
■ Investorer har sett på Danmark, Finland, Norge og Sverige som
trygge havner. Mens solen fortsetter å skinne på norsk økonomi,
trues den svenske av mørke skyer. Danmark og Finland er på
kanten av ny resesjon.
OVERBLIKK 04
SAKTE FART, MEN IKKE FOR NORGE
NORGE 08
RISIKO FOR OVEROPPHETING
USA 18
SAKTE FART FREMOVER
EUROOMRÅDET 20
INGEN OPPGANG FØR TILLITEN ER TILBAKE
RUSSLAND 26
DÉJÀ VU FOR INFLASJON
KINA 31
STABILITET, STABILITET OG….STABILITET
OLJE OG RÅVERER 35
OLJEPRISEN VIL HOLDE SEG HØY
SPESIALTEMA 37
TO ALTERNATIVE SCENARIER FOR INTERNASJONAL ØKONOMI
2 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
2. ■ Innhold
Oversiktstabeller Overblikk
Sakte fart, men ikke for Norge ....................................................................... 4
Makro nøkkeltall ................... 6
NORGE
Renter ...................................... 7 Risiko for overoppheting kan bli den største utfordringen .............................. 8
Derfor faller ikke eksporten .......................................................................... 10
Valutakurser .......................... 7
Nordic economies
Redaktør SWEDEN
Households prop up the economy ................................................................ 12
Steinar Juel
Sjeføkonom DENMARK
steinar.juel@nordea.com Languishing economic growth ..................................................................... 14
Tel +47 2248 6130
FINLAND
Finnish economy has cooled down across the board .................................... 16
Redaksjonen avsluttet Major economies
30 August 2012 USA
Moving slowly forward ................................................................................. 18
EURO AREA
Restore confidence to end the recession ...................................................... 20
Besøk oss på: UK
www.nordeamarkets.com UK growth stalling – awaiting outside help ................................................... 22
JAPAN
The challenges remain in the long term ........................................................ 23
Datakilder:
Data er hentet fra Reuters Ecowin Emerging Markets
og nasjonale statistikkbyråer og
egne beregninger dersom ikke POLAND
annet er angitt. Slowdown under control .............................................................................. 24
RUSSIA
Inflation déjà vu ........................................................................................... 26
ESTONIA
Economy remains in a soft patch ................................................................. 28
LATVIA
Economy keeps delivering positive surprises ............................................... 29
LITHUANIA
Showing resilience ...................................................................................... 30
CHINA
Stability, stability and … stability.................................................................. 31
INDIA
A drought of growth..................................................................................... 33
BRAZIL
Slow BRIC healing ....................................................................................... 34
Commodities
OIL
Oil prices stay high but spare capacity buffer should build ........................... 35
METALS
Metal prices scratching the bottom for now .................................................. 36
SPECIAL THEME
Alternative scenario 1: Back on track ........................................................... 37
Alternative scenario 2: That sinking feeling .................................................. 38
3 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
3. ■ Overblikk
Sakte fart, men ikke for Norge
Tillit er raskt å rive ned, men tar lang tid å bygge opp. omgang gir Norges Bank et noe større rom for å kunne
Omfattende budsjettinnstramninger og økonomiske heve styringsrenten. I følge våre anslag vil Norges Bank
reformer vedtas og gjennomføres i Irland, Portugal, være den første sentralbanken i et vestlig land som hever
Spania og Italia. Det tar imidlertid tid før virkningene renten. Første renteøkning tror vi kommer i mars,
blir så synlige at finansmarkedsaktørenes tillit til deretter en i andre del av 2013. I 2014 venter vi tre
periferilandene vender tilbake. Tillit er avgjørende for at renteøkninger, hver på ¼ prosentpoeng.
en selvgående vekst skal vende tilbake. Den europeiske
sentralbankens (ECBs) annonserte villighet til å kjøpe Robust norsk eksport og industri
statsobligasjoner utstedt av periferilandene kan bidra til Den kostnadsmessige konkurranseevnen til norsk industri
at private investorers tillit kommer raskere. Det skal har forverret seg sterkt i år. Høy lønnsvekst, sterk krone
likevel mye til for at Eurosonen vil oppleve noe annet enn og svak produktivitetsvekst har bidratt til det. Likevel er
svak økonomisk vekst de neste par årene. Heller ikke i norsk industri en av de få i den vestlige verden som viser
USA tror vi veksten blir annet enn moderat, og vi tror vekst. Det har sammenheng med at norsk industri er blitt
heller ikke veksten i Kina vil vende tilbake til gamle mer og mer rettet inn mot å produsere utstyr til olje- og
høyder. Med en vekst i fastlands-BNP på nær 4 prosent gassvirksomhet i både Norge og utlandet.
fremstår Norge som et høyvekstland.
Sammensetningen av norsk eksport utenom olje og gass
Høyere vekst i Norge har endret seg vesentlig de siste 20-40 årene. For det
2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E første har eksporten av tjenester utenom sjøfart økt
Verden (PPP) -0,7 4,7 3,8 3,1 3,5 3,8
- USA -3,5 2,4 1,8 2,2 2,0 2,2
kraftig. Veksten i slike tjenester har motvirket en kraftig
- Euro området -4,2 1,9 1,5 -0,4 0,6 1,7 nedgang i betydning til fraktinntekter fra utenriks sjøfart.
- Japan -5,5 4,6 -0,7 2,5 1,6 1,1 Tjenesteeksporten samlet er derfor fortsatt nesten like
- Norden -4,9 3,6 2,7 1,6 2,0 2,5 stor som tradisjonell vareeksport. Statistikken for
- Danmark -5,8 1,3 1,1 0,7 1,9 2,1
- Finland -8,4 3,3 2,7 0,8 1,2 2,8 tjenesteeksporten er lite spesifisert, men det ser ut til at
- Norge, fastland -1,6 1,9 2,4 3,7 3,0 2,8 det er eksport av tjenester knyttet til olje- og
- Sverige -5,0 6,2 3,9 1,2 1,8 2,3 gassvirksomhet i utlandet, og til utstyr levert til slike
- Fremvoksende økonomier 4,6 8,0 7,6 6,1 6,7 6,7
- Kina 9,2 9,2 10,5 8,0 8,3 8,5
formål, som særlig har vokst. Når det gjelder
sammensetningen av vareeksporten er metalleksporten på
Veksten i oljeinvesteringene på 20 prosent i år er en vikende front, mens eksporten av fisk (oppdrettslaks) og
viktig vekstdriver i norsk økonomi. Disse investeringene, av maskiner og utstyr har økt i viktighet. Maskiner og
sammen med fortsatt god ekspansjon i offentlig utstyr er en svært sammensatt eksportgruppe. Men det er
tjenesteyting, gjør at Norge fremstår som spesiell. Det spesialiserte produkter, trolig mye relatert til
bidrar til ringvirkninger som høy lønnsvekst, høy vekst i offshorevirksomhet og energiproduksjon ellers som har
privat forbruk, høy vekst i boligprisene, god vekst i vokst. I kapittelet om Norge presenteres en nærmere
investeringene i fastlands-Norge og høy analyse av tradisjonell norsk eksport.
sysselsettingsvekst. Veksten i norsk økonomi ser ut til å
bli enda sterkere enn det vi anslo i Økonomisk Oversikt Norsk industri og eksport har alltid hatt et relativt lite
Norden som ble publisert 1. juni. Våre prognoser for innslag av masseproduserte forbruks- og
investeringene i fastlands-Norge er noe oppjustert, det investeringsvarer hvor lønnskostnader er en viktig
samme er prognosene for tradisjonell eksport, og konkurranseparameter. Innslaget av slike produkter er de
oljeeksporten. siste årene blitt enda mindre. Markedene for mange av
produktene og tjenestene som er viktige for norsk eksport
Det er krevende for de økonomiskpolitiske myndighetene har holdt seg godt oppe, og til dels vokst, tross
i et lite land som Norge når veksten her er sterk mens den finanskrisen. Norge har også lite direkte eksport til
er lav i verden rundt oss. Det utgjør en risiko for den kriselandene i Eurosonen. Dette forklarer hvorfor norsk
finansielle stabiliteten når lav rente i andre land bidrar til eksport og industri i så begrenset grad ble rammet av
nær rekordlav styringsrente i høyvekstlandet Norge. konjunktursvikten knyttet til finanskrisen i USA og nå i
Kronen er sterk fordi den er attraktiv for Eurosonen.
trygghetssøkende investorer og gir noe høyere
Noe høyere rente og sterkere krone ville ikke vært
avkastning enn andre trygge valutaer. Uroen i
noen ulykke
finansmarkedene har avtatt i løpet av august og det er
Når en ser hvordan strukturen på norsk eksport har endret
grunn til å vente at stabiliseringen vil fortsette når Den
europeiske sentralbankens opplegg for obligasjonskjøp seg og hvor robust den har vært, er det grunn å reise
spørsmål ved om bekymringen for den kostnadsmessige
blir kjent. Redusert uro i finansmarkedene og større
konkurranseevnen til norsk næringsliv er overdrevet. En
risikovillighet hos private investorer tilsier at interessen
for den norske kronen vil reduseres, noe som i neste får litt inntrykk av at man er opptatt av å bevare en
4 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
4. ■ Overblikk
næringsstruktur vi ikke lenger har, eller kanskje aldri har svak vekstoppgang i Eurosonen gjennom 2013 og 2014
hatt. Tilsvarende som Sveits, har Norge eksportnæringer forutsetter at rentedifferansene fortsetter å komme mer
som synes langt mindre følsomme overfor inn.
kostnadsnivået enn tilfellet ville vært dersom eksporten
vår hadde bestått av skjorter og TV’er. Ja, vi er blitt mer Vi har i et eget kapittel angitt to alternative scenarier for
spesialiserte og sårbare overfor sjokk som eventuelt internasjonal økonomi, ett med høyere vekst og ett med
måtte ramme olje- og gassmarkedene. Men i en verden dypere og mer langvarig nedgang. Scenariet med høyere
med sterkere spesialisering vil en liten åpen økonomi vekst er blant annet basert på at tilliten til Eurosonen
som den norske aldri kunne utvikle en bred og allsidig vender raskere tilbake enn det vi har forutsatt. I
næringsstruktur som det en stor økonomi som for nedgangsscenariet antas ECBs opplegg for kjøp av
eksempel den amerikanske kan. Uansett hvilken obligasjoner å bli for restriktivt til å roe ned markedene
spesialisering som utvikles i Norge vil vi som en liten og at motstanden i de nordlige Euroland mot bistand til
åpen økonomi være sårbare dersom noe skulle skje med periferilandene øker. Videre antas det at veksten i Kina
markedet for det vi er mest spesialister på. svekkes ytterligere. I en slik situasjon vil resesjonen i
Oppbyggingen av petroleumsfondet med et bredt Eurosonen forsterkes og fortsette gjennom 2013.
investeringsunivers er en måte å redusere denne Resultatet antas også å bli at oljeprisen faller til USD 75-
sårbarheten på, og å lette omstillingene når 80 pr. fat på det laveste. Selv et slikt scenario vil i
oljevirksomheten en gang går mot slutten. Med de nye begrenset grad dempe veksten innen offshorenæringene i
funnene som nå gjøres på norsk sokkel er tidspunktet for Norge. I utgangspunktet venter vi at oljeprisen vil stige
det skutt ut i tid. svakt fremover, til USD 116 pr. fat i slutten av 2014.
Selv om Norge har god tilgang på arbeidskraft fra Langsom oppgang i USA
utlandet, er det ikke til å unngå at den sterke Oppgangen i USA har vært langsom. Kvartaler med
ekspansjonen innen offshorevirksomheten krever at robust vekst har vært avløst av kvartaler med lav vekst.
andre bedrifter frigjør arbeidskraft ved å legge ned Etter relativt høy vekst i vinter, har vi nå bak oss et svakt
produksjon eller flytte til utlandet. Sterkere krone kvartal. Vi venter at veksten i USA tar seg noe opp igjen
og/eller høy lønnsvekst er mekanismene som får det til. i høst og i 2013, men oppgangen etter finanskrisen vil
Det ville trolig ikke vært noen stor ulykke om renten i fortsette å fremstå som moderat. Det skaper stor
Norge var satt noe høyere og kronen var blitt noe usikkerhet at det vil bli store skatteøkninger og kutt i
sterkere. Lønnsveksten kunne da blitt noe lavere, og utgiftene på det føderale budsjettet dersom
risikoen for finansiell ustabilitet redusert. republikanerne og demokratene i Kongressen ikke blir
enige om noe annet. I våre prognoser har vi forutsatt at
Viktige uker for Eurosonen disse tilstramningene i budsjettet blir reversert. Hvis ikke
September blir avgjørende for antagelsen om at vil USA kunne gå inn i en ny resesjon neste år.
finansuroen i Euroområdet ikke vil eskalere igjen. Den
europeiske sentralbankens (ECBs) opplegg for kjøp av Større usikkerhet om Kina
statsobligasjoner skal vedtas og offentliggjøres. Det er Den økonomiske veksten i Kina har avtatt, men vi venter
parlamentsvalg i Nederland som kan resultere i en at den tar seg noe opp igjen i løpet av høsten.
regjering som er enda mer negativ til finansiell bistand til Myndighetene har redusert renten og lettet på
kriselandene. Videre skal den tyske forfatningsdomstolen kredittrestriksjonene. Ytterligere lettelser i penge- og
avgjøre om krisefondet ESM er i strid med den tyske kredittpolitikken kan ventes. Det foreligger også
grunnloven. Og endelig får vi statusrapporten om Hellas omfattende investeringsplaner på regionnivå. I løpet av
fra troikaen IMFEU-KommisjonenECB. Den blir de kommende måneder vil det foretas store endringer i
avgjørende for om Hellas får utbetalt mer penger og gis det politiske lederskapet i Kina, både sentralt og på
noe mer tid til å redusere budsjettunderskuddet og region- og lokalnivå. Regional BNP-vekst er vanligvis
gjennomføre avtalte reformer. Skulle rapporten bli svært blitt vurdert som et suksesskriterium for regionale og
negativ går det mot en gresk finansiell krise og lokale partipamper. Derfor er det all grunn til å vente
sannsynlig uttreden av Eurosonen i løpet av høsten. kraftige stimulansetiltak på disse nivåene i månedene
som kommer. Mye av dette vil måtte finansieres med lån.
Situasjonen i Hellas er vanskelig, men Gjeldssituasjonen til regionene er i utgangspunktet
samlingsregjeringen ledet av statsminister Samaras uoversiktlig, og det er grunn til bekymring for den
signaliserer vilje til å følge opp kravene fra EU og IMF. finansielle stabiliteten når vi ser noe lenger frem.
Videre er det god grunn til vente at ECBs opplegg for
kjøp av statsobligasjoner kan bidra til å redusere Steinar Juel, sjeføkonom
rentedifferansen mellom periferilandene og Tyskland. steinar.juel@nordea.com +47 2248 6130
Alle problemer vil ikke med dette være løst, men det gjør
jobben lettere for regjeringer som kjemper for å få ned
budsjettunderskuddene, og for banker som skal låne ut
penger til investeringer i næringslivet. Våre anslag om en
5 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
5. ■ Overblikk
BNP reel vekst, % Inflasjon, %
2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Verden1) 4.6 3.8 3.1 3.5 3.8 Verden1) 2.8 4.1 2.9 2.9 2.9
USA 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2 USA 1.6 3.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
Euroområdet 1.9 1.5 -0.4 0.6 1.7 Euroområdet 1.6 2.7 2.2 1.6 1.6
Kina 9.2 10.5 8.0 8.3 8.5 Kina 3.3 5.4 3.1 4.0 3.8
Japan 4.6 -0.7 2.5 1.6 1.1 Japan -0.7 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Danmark 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.1 Danmark 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.2
Norge 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.8 Norge 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.1
Sverige 6.2 3.9 1.2 1.8 2.3 Sverige 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.2 2.0
UK 1.8 0.8 -0.4 1.0 1.7 UK 3.3 4.5 3.0 2.2 1.4
Sveits 2.7 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 Sveits 0.7 0.2 -0.7 0.6 1.6
Tyskland 4.0 3.1 0.9 1.4 2.1 Tyskland 0.2 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.1
Frankrike 1.6 1.7 0.1 0.8 1.7 Frankrike 0.1 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.9
Italia 1.8 0.5 -2.3 -0.5 1.0 Italia 1.6 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.5
Spania -0.3 0.4 -1.2 -0.9 1.1 Spania 2.0 3.1 2.4 2.2 0.5
Nederland 1.6 1.1 -0.2 1.2 1.7 Nederland 0.9 2.5 2.4 1.7 1.8
Østerrike 2.3 2.7 0.9 0.8 1.7 Østerrike 1.7 3.6 2.2 1.8 1.9
Belgien 2.4 1.8 -0.4 0.6 1.8 Belgien 2.3 3.5 2.2 1.5 1.7
Portugal 1.4 -1.6 -2.7 0.0 1.2 Portugal 1.4 3.6 2.9 1.5 1.3
Hellas -3.5 -6.9 -6.6 -0.9 1.2 Hellas 4.7 3.1 0.5 -0.5 0.0
Finland 3.3 2.7 0.8 1.2 2.8 Finland 1.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.3
Irland -0.8 1.4 -0.2 1.5 2.1 Irland -1.6 1.2 1.8 1.5 1.5
Estland 2.3 7.6 2.3 3.5 3.8 Estland 3.0 5.0 3.7 3.0 2.9
Polen 3.9 4.3 2.8 2.3 3.1 Polen 2.6 4.3 3.9 2.7 2.2
Russland 4.0 4.4 4.2 4.8 5.0 Russland 6.9 8.5 6.3 6.8 7.0
Latvia -0.3 5.5 4.2 2.5 3.9 Latvia -1.1 4.4 2.3 2.5 2.8
Litauen 1.4 5.9 2.7 3.3 3.5 Litauen 1.3 4.1 3.0 2.8 3.0
India 9.6 6.9 6.0 6.7 7.2 India 9.6 9.5 7.5 6.8 7.0
Brasil 7.6 2.8 2.6 4.6 4.8 Brasil 5.0 6.4 5.2 5.4 5.8
Offentlig budsjettbalanse, % av BNP Driftsbalanse, % av BNP
2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
USA -8.9 -8.6 -7.0 -5.5 -4.1 USA -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0
Euroområdet -6.2 -4.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.5 Euroområdet 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0
Kina -1.7 -1.1 -1.5 -2.3 -1.9 Kina 5.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.5
Japan -9.0 -9.7 -9.9 -9.6 -9.0 Japan 3.6 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.4
Danmark -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5 Danmark 5.5 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.4
Norge 11.3 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.6 Norge 12.4 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.1
Sverige -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -0.5 Sverige 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.5
UK -10.4 -8.3 -7.6 -6.4 -4.7 UK -2.5 -1.9 -2.3 -2.1 -1.3
Sveits 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 Sveits 14.3 10.4 9.3 8.7 9.9
Tyskland -4.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 Tyskland 5.8 5.3 4.6 4.4 4.0
Frankrike -7.1 -5.2 -4.7 -3.9 -3.5 Frankrike -2.2 -2.7 -2.4 -2.1 -2.0
Italia -4.6 -3.9 -2.0 -1.8 -1.0 Italia -3.5 -3.1 -2.0 -1.0 -0.5
Finland -2.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 Finland 1.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 0.6
Estland 0.2 1.0 -1.5 -0.5 -0.3 Estland 3.8 2.1 -2.3 -1.5 -1.3
Polen -7.8 -5.1 -3.3 -3.3 -2.9 Polen -4.7 -4.3 -3.6 -3.0 -3.0
Russland -4.0 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.7 Russland 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.0 2.5
Latvia -8.2 -3.5 -2.2 -2.0 -2.0 Latvia 3.0 -1.2 -3.2 -3.5 -3.6
Litauen -7.2 -5.5 -2.7 -3.0 -3.0 Litauen 1.1 -1.6 -2.7 -3.0 -3.0
India -3.6 -6.6 -7.0 -7.5 -8.0 India -3.3 -2.8 -4.0 -3.0 -2.2
Brasil -2.7 -2.4 -2.0 -2.1 -2.2 Brasil -2.3 -2.1 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8
1) Veid gjennomsnitt av landene i denne t abellen. Dekker 70,5%av verdens BNP. Vekt ene er beregnet ut fra kjøpekraf t skorrigert e BNP-nivåer for 2008 i henhold t il IM F's World Economic Out look dat ab
6 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
7. ■ Norge
Risiko for overoppheting kan bli den største utfordringen
Sterk vekst i innenlandsk etterspørsel eksporten fra fastlandsøkonomien holdt seg bedre oppe
enn fryktet. Deler av eksportnæringene sliter, men
Høy innvandring hindrer overoppheting veksten i samlet eksport har blant annet vært holdt oppe
Og Norges Bank kan gå forsiktig fram av en sterk vekst i eksporten av elektrisitet. Det er trolig
er midlertidig, men den sterke veksten i eksporten av
Det er få svakhetstegn i norsk økonomi og vi ser ingen verkstedprodukter er neppe det. Den reflekterer
grunn til å endre vårt optimistiske bilde av utviklingen oljeleverandørindustriens økende betydning for norsk
fremover. Veksten blir sterk, men takket være høy eksport. Med vedvarende høye oljepriser er utsiktene for
arbeidsinnvandring unngår vi sannsynligvis en denne eksporten god også for de neste årene. I løpet av
overoppheting og kraftig tiltagende kostnadsvekst. prognoseperioden ventes også veksten i den mer
Lønnsveksten blir riktignok langt høyere enn hos våre tradisjonelle eksportindustrien å ta seg opp som følge av
naboland, men ikke så høy at den presser prisveksten sterkere vekst i våre tradisjonelle eksportmarkeder.
over inflasjonsmålet. Sterk økonomisk vekst og noe
høyere kapasitetsutnyttelse tilsier likevel en viss økning i For leverandørindustrien til oljesektoren er den ekstremt
rentene de neste par årene. Det er imidlertid begrenset kraftige veksten i norske oljeinvesteringer av avgjørende
hva Norges Bank kan gjøre med norske renter uten at betyding. Veksttakten vil avta noe i årene som kommer,
kronen styrkes for mye. men vi regner likevel med at kapasitetsbegrensninger på
mange områder blir viktigste hinder for ekspansjonen i
Sterk forbruksvekst disse næringene. Trykket i denne delen av industrien
Sterk lønns- og sysselsettingsvekst og en svært lav synes å være en viktig grunn til at lønnsoppgjørene gir en
prisvekst betyr at forbrukernes kjøpekraft for tiden øker lønnsvekst i industrien langt over det vi ser i
kraftig. Det er derfor ikke underlig at forbruksveksten i konkurrentlandene.
første halvår var svært høy etter en merkelig svak
utvikling i fjor. Med et i utgangspunktet høyt nivå på Også fastlandsinvesteringene regner vi med vil vokse bra
sparingen og et fortsatt sterkt arbeidsmarked regner vi framover, selv om veksttakten neppe blir så høy som for
med at forbruksveksten fortsetter med uforminsket styrke oljeinvesteringene. Investeringsviljen bør være god med
ut året og inn i 2013. I løpet av 2013 og i 2014 ventes sterk produksjonsvekst i store deler av næringslivet. Noe
forbruksveksten å avta noe som følge av et noe høyere høyere kredittmarginer og strengere kredittpraksis i
rentenivå og mer moderat vekst i sysselsettingen. bankene kan begrense investeringsveksten noe, men det
det oppveies trolig i stor grad av at det generelle
Bedre eksport, men svakere fastlandsinvesteringer rentenivået er svært lavt. En eventuell kraftig eskalering
Til tross for svak vekst hos våre handelspartnere, sterk av eurokrisen kan imidlertid gi en kraftige
krone og en lønnsvekst godt over andre lands har kredittinnstramning og er kanskje en av de største
risikoene for norsk økonomi.
Norge: Makroøkonomiske indikatorer (% årlig vekst hvis ikke annet oppgitt)
2009( bn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Konsum i husholdninger og ideelle org. 1,028 3.7 2.4 3.7 3.5 3.0
Konsum i offentlig forvaltning 531 1.7 1.5 2.0 2.5 2.5
Bruttoinvesteringer i fast kap. i alt 516 -5.2 6.4 7.2 4.9 3.7
- Bruttoinvesteringer, Fastlands-Norge 349 -2.5 8.0 3.2 3.7 3.7
- Bruttoinvesteringer, olje 144 -14.3 9.1 20.0 8.0 4.0
Lagerinvesteringer* 14 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Eksport 929 1.8 -1.4 1.6 1.1 1.3
- olje og gass 416 -4.8 -6.2 2.5 0.0 0.0
- andre varer 277 2.5 -0.4 0.0 2.0 2.5
Import 660 9.9 3.5 3.0 3.9 3.0
BNP 2,357 0.7 1.4 3.4 2.4 2.3
BNP, Fastlands-Norge 1,876 1.9 2.4 3.7 3.0 2.8
Arbeidsledighet (AKU), % 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.9
Konsumpriser, % årsvekst 2.5 1.2 0.8 1.8 2.1
Underliggende inflasjon, % årsvekst 1.4 0.9 1.2 1.5 2.1
Årslønn inkl. pensjonskostnader, % årsvekst 3.6 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3
Driftsbalanse (mrd. NOK) 313.6 393.9 437.1 482.9 497.5
- i % av BNP 12.4 14.5 14.9 15.4 15.1
Handelsbalanse i % av BNP 12.4 13.8 14.6 15.1 14.8
Overskudd offentlige budsjetter 284.5 375.1 400.0 435.0 450.0
- i % av BNP 11.3 13.8 13.7 13.9 13.6
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)
8 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
8. ■ Norge
Norsk industriproduksjon øker forsiktige
Inflasjonen kryper sakte oppover
Sterk vekst i innenlandsk etterspørsel vil bidra til sterk
produksjonsvekst i årene som kommer. Takket være høy
innvandring regner vi ikke med at det blir noe problem å
dekke etterspørselen etter arbeidskraft. Vi regner heller
ikke med store flaskehalsproblemer på arbeidsmarkedet
selv om det er knapphetsproblemer innen enkelte
fagområder. Det betyr at lønnsveksten ikke vil tilta
vesentlig, men holde seg relativt høy, det vil si i overkant
av 4 % i årene som kommer. Sammen med god vekst i
innenlandsk etterspørselsvekst og en relativt stabil krone
tilsier det at inflasjonen vil tilta i årene som kommer.
Underliggende inflasjon kan komme opp i 2 % i løpet av
prognoseperioden, fra dagens 1 %, men kostnadsveksten
Tiltagende inntektsvekst tilsier høyer forbruksvekst
må trolig bli sterkere for at inflasjonen skal komme over
målet på 2 ½ %.
Langsom renteoppgang
God vekst, et relativt stramt arbeidsmarked, noe høyere
inflasjon og noe lysere utsikter internasjonalt tilsier at
Norges Bank ønsker å sette opp renten i
prognoseperioden. Fortsatt stigende boligpriser og
gjeldsvekst fra et høyt nivå tilsier også at rentene ønskes
noe opp. Men en inflasjon som fortsatt er under målet og
en vekst i økonomien om lag på linje med veksten i
kapasiteten tilsier at Norges Bank ikke vil ha hastverk.
Uten renteøkninger i nabolandene vil en aggressiv
økning hos oss gi svært sterk krone og gjøre at
inflasjonen igjen falle lenger under målet. Tilbudet holder nesten følge med etterspørselen
Når dette skrives har NOK styrket seg relativt mye mot
EUR, men målt med NOKs importveide verdi er
styrkingen langt begrenset. Vi regner med at Norges
Bank setter opp renten to ganger neste år uten at det vil
føre til en varig videre kronestyrking. I 2014 kan takten i
renteøkningene økes noe, men siden vi venter
renteøkninger også i andre land, kan Norges Banks
økninger skje uten at trykket mot en sterkere krone bli for
stort.
Det er en klar risiko for at en høy innenlandsk
etterspørselsvekst gir større kapasitetsproblemer, høyere
lønnsvekst og dermed etterhvert høyere inflasjon enn vi
venter. Da vil Norges Bank gå fortere fram med Ikke så sterk krone importveid
renteøkningene og akseptere at det slår ut i en sterkere
krone. Kronestyrkingen vil bidra til å hindre at
inflasjonen skyter over målet. Dersom Norges Bank
velger å legge mindre vekt på å nå inflasjonsmålet og
mer på å hindre for sterk boligprisstigning og videre
gjeldsvekst hos husholdningene, kan vi også få en
kombinasjon av høyere renter og sterkere krone. Det er
imidlertid ingen ting i retorikken fra sentralbanken som
tyder på en slik endring i bankens prioriteringer er på
trappene.
Erik Bruce
erik.bruce@nordea.com +47 2248 4449
9 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
9. ■ Norge
Derfor faller ikke eksporten
Norsk eksport har holdt seg overraskende godt oppe Eksporten holder seg oppe
Eksporten av tjenester har økt markert etter 2009
Fiskeeksporten har økt i viktighet
Men verkstedprodukter og metaller dominerer
Eksporten går til land som klarer seg greit
Eksporten av maskiner til Asia har tatt seg opp
Langt bedre enn fryktet
Norsk eksport har holdt seg overraskende godt oppe til
tross for krise i Europa og svake tendenser globalt
gjennom fjoråret og dette året, se figur. Sammenlignet
med toppnivået før finanskrisen er eksporten av
tjenester faktisk opp 15 % mens eksporten av Mer fisk
tradisjonelle varer fortsatt ligger 5 % under etter å ha
beveget seg mer eller mindre sideveis siden 2009.
Eksport av tjenester veier tungt
Når det snakkes om norsk eksport er det nesten
utelukkende fokus på produksjon og eksport av varer.
Men eksporten av tjenester er nesten like stor som
eksporten av tradisjonelle varer og får ufortjent lite
oppmerksomhet. Eksporten av tjenester har økt kraftig
etter finanskrisen og gitt viktige bidrag til BNP-veksten
i Fastlands-Norge.
Utenriks sjøfart utgjør en sentral del tjenesteeksporten,
men har ikke bidratt til noe vekst etter 2007. Veksten
har vært innen eksport av «forretnings-, profesjons- og Verkstedprodukter viktigere
tekniske tjenester», «petroleumstjenester» og «leie-
arbeid og reparasjoner». Det er tydelig at Norge har
ekspertise innenfor disse typer tjenester som trosser
både sterk krone og høye lønnskostnader.
Fisk er blitt viktigere
Innen eksport av tradisjonelle varer har det skjedd
betydelige endringer i sammensetningen de siste 40
årene. Ser man på hovedkategoriene har eksporten av
produkter fra jordbruk, skogbruk og fiske tatt seg
kraftig opp og økt som andel av tradisjonell eksport
(målt i verdi) fra i overkant av 2 % i 1970 til 8-9 % de
siste par årene, se figur. Utviklingen innen
lakseoppdrett er årsaken til denne kraftige veksten.
Industriprodukter utgjorde 89 % av eksporten av Eksport av maskiner - viktigste kategorier og undergrupper
tradisjonelle varer i 2011, ned fra 93,8 % i 1970. Det er (Andel av eksport av maskiner i 2011 gitt i parentes)
særlig i perioden fra finanskrisen i 2007/2008 at 1. Andre industrimaskiner (23,4 %)
eksport av fisk har økt sin relative betydning som - Pumper for væske
eksportnæring. En stadig økende fiskeeksport, også - Mekanisk utstyr for håndtering av gods
gjennom finanskrisen, bidrar til å holde eksporten 2. Maskiner for spesielle industrier (21,3 %)
oppe. - Anleggsmaskiner og -utstyr
- Andre maskiner for spesielle industrier ikke ellers nevnt
3. Elektriske maskiner og apparater (20,4 %)
- Utstyr for overføring av elektrisitet
10 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
10. ■ Norge
Men verkstedprodukter og metaller råder Eksporten går ikke til kriserammede land
Innenfor eksporten av industriprodukter har det også
vært nokså store endringer i sammensetningen.
Metaller er fortsatt en av Norges viktigste eksportvarer,
men andelen har sunket de siste 40 årene. I 1970
utgjorde metaller hele 34,3 % av eksporten av
tradisjonelle varer, mens i 2011 var andelen 22,4 %.
Aluminiumslegeringer og nikkel er viktigst og står for
nesten halvparten av metalleksporten.
Verkstedprodukter er på den annen side blitt stadig
viktigere og utgjorde i 2011 en like stor andel av
eksporten som metaller, opp fra 12 % i 1970.
Verkstedprodukter omfatter alle typer industrimaskiner Ingen resesjon hos våre viktigste
og -utstyr. I tabellen på forrige side har vi listet opp de
tre viktigste kategoriene innenfor eksport av maskiner.
Gjennom finanskrisen og den svake perioden de siste
par årene har det vist seg at sammensetningen av
vareeksporten er mindre konjunkturfølsom enn i f.eks.
Sverige.
Eksporten går til landene som klarer seg greit
Selv om andelen har sunket er det fortsatt Europa som
er vårt viktigste eksportmarked med en andel på 76 % i
2011. I utgangspunktet skulle man ventet at gjeldskrise
og resesjon i Europa ville virket sterkt negativt på
eksporten fra Norge. Som nevnt innledningsvis har Kraftig ned, men på vei opp igjen
eksporten holdt seg bemerkelsesverdig godt oppe. Én
grunn til det er at lite av norsk eksport går til de hardest
rammede økonomiene i Europa. Med unntak av
Storbritannia har alle våre 10 viktigste
eksportmarkeder (se figur) så langt unngått en ny
resesjon etter finanskrisen. Det har vært svak vekst,
men ingen dyp nedtur, se figur.
Mer maskiner til Asia og Sør-Amerika
Til Asia er det maskiner som er viktigste eksportvare
med en andel i 2011 på 31,2 %, ned fra hele 50 % i
2009. Eksporten av maskiner til Asia falt markert i
2010 og 2011, men har tatt seg opp igjen så langt i Eksport av fisk trekker opp
2012 og har nok bidratt til veksten i norsk eksport i
første halvår, se figur. Et markert oppsving i eksporten
av maskiner til Sør-Amerika i samme periode har også
gitt positive bidrag selv om eksporten til den regionen
er langt mindre.
Med andre ord flere grunner til at det går bra
Det er flere grunner til at norsk eksport ikke har falt
som følge av krisen i Europa:
Eksporten av tjenester har hatt en svært
positiv utvikling de siste årene.
Sammensetningen av vareeksporten mindre
konjunkturfølsom. Fisk trekker mye opp.
Våre viktigste eksportmarkeder har unngått en
Katrine Godding Boye
ny nedtur etter finanskrisen.
katrine.boye@nordea.com +47 22 48 79 77
Eksporten av maskiner har økt i det siste,
særlig til Asia og Sør-Amerika, regioner som
opplever relativt sterk vekst. Michael Hurum Cook
michael.hurum.cook@nordea.com
11 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
11. ■ Sweden
Households prop up the economy
GDP growth edging higher in coming years … Households keep the wheels turning
Household finances are generally stable. A low inflation
… but near term, the labour market will weaken level and pay rises jack up households’ purchasing pow-
Long period of low inflation er. Real disposable incomes will rise by about 2% annu-
ally in 2012-2014. The improved household finances
Riksbank to cut rates this year, and the SEK weakens have fed through to the housing market. House prices
have started to rise again after having shown a slightly
Good growth weak trend over the past year. Share prices are also im-
The Swedish economy has been surprisingly resilient to portant for households’ propensity to spend, and since
the global turbulence. GDP growth did drop towards the the turn of the year stock markets have recovered some-
end of 2011, but both the GDP and employment rose what. The conditions for households are therefore benign
again during H1 2012. The domestic economy was the so we expect consumer spending to rise noticeably in
key driver of growth, but also foreign trade improved. coming years.
Growth in H1 2012 was fairly high, we think, despite the
possibility of a downward revision to Q2 GDP growth. Investment activity lost pace in Q2 2012 after rising
sharply at the beginning of the year. There are indications
Although the economy has been able to tackle the global that capacity utilisation in several sectors has declined,
obstacles better than expected, GDP growth is still not which reduces the need for new investment. In addition,
sufficiently high to prevent a decline in the demand for investment appetite seems suppressed by the dark clouds
labour. We expect unemployment to rise above 8% dur- still hanging over Europe. The number of housing starts
ing the winter. has already dropped sharply, and total investment will
show a weak trend in coming quarters. We expect the
Prospects for H2 2012 are mixed. We will likely see sub- general need for investments to be modest during most of
dued growth. However, longer out there are factors sug- next year and then increase in 2014 in tandem with the
gesting a pick-up in activity. A benign situation for overall pick-up in activity. An expansionary fiscal policy
households, a slightly more expansionary economic poli- partly based on infrastructure investment will contribute
cy and a global economy that gradually recovers are the to underpinning investment growth over the forecast
factors that will underpin higher GDP growth in coming horizon.
years. However, due to global weakness growth will only
accelerate slowly and unemployment will not decline un- Tough times for the export industry
til the latter part of the forecast period Despite some improvement recently, exports of goods
have stagnated over the past year. The order intake re-
Sweden: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (SEKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 1,533 3.7 2.0 1.7 2.0 2.1
Government consumption 860 1.9 1.8 0.8 0.5 1.5
Fixed investment 559 7.7 6.2 2.5 1.0 3.5
- industry 74 1.0 7.9 -2.2 2.2 4.4
- residential investment 92 17.2 15.1 -8.7 -2.2 4.5
Stockbuilding* -46 2.1 0.6 -1.1 0.1 0.0
Exports 1,489 11.7 6.9 1.2 4.2 4.9
Imports 1,288 12.7 6.3 -0.4 3.8 5.1
GDP 6.2 3.9 1.2 1.8 2.3
GDP, calendar adjusted 5.9 3.9 1.5 1.8 2.4
Nominal GDP (SEKbn) 3,106 3,331 3,492 3,580 3,703 3,836
Unemployment rate, % 8.4 7.5 7.7 8.0 7.7
Employment grow th 1.0 2.1 0.3 -0.2 0.8
Consumer prices, % y/y 1.2 3.0 1.2 1.2 2.0
Underlying inflation (CPIF), % y/y 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.5 1.5
Hourly earnings, % y/y 0.4 2.9 3.3 3.2 2.8
Current account (SEKbn) 225 243 259 280 288
- % of GDP 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.6 7.5
Trade balance, % of GDP 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.7
General govt budget balance (SEKbn) -2 5 -12 -38 -18
- % of GDP -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.0 -0.5
Gross public debt, % of GDP 39.4 38.4 38.1 39.1 39.6
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)
12 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
12. ■ Sweden
mains weak, and growth in many key export markets is Rising incomes and consumption
low. Accordingly, goods exports will likely remain sub-
dued during the remainder of 2012. Also the strong SEK
is a problem for exporters. However, it probably affects
profitability rather than volumes. The situation will im-
prove longer out as the SEK will likely weaken and de-
mand gradually rise.
Sweden’s trade in services, which has increased sharply
so far this year, is gaining significance. Exports of ser-
vices have risen from 6% of GDP in 1980 to currently
15% of GDP. The export markets for services are largely
identical to those for goods – where demand is weak.
This suggests that the pick-up in H1 was temporary and
will lose momentum going forward.
Weak global demand a drag on Swedish exports
Low inflation puts pressure on the Riksbank
Despite an increase in the number of employed this year
the labour market still shows signs of weakness. The de-
mand for labour has not been sufficiently strong to keep
unemployment in check. Labour market indicators are
still at benign levels, but have started to soften. We look
for a decline in employment and accelerating growth in
unemployment during autumn and winter.
Labour market weakness is usually accompanied by re-
duced domestic inflation. Also, the SEK strengthening
helps putting a lid on costs. Inflation pressures thus look
set to moderate even further in future, extending the peri-
od of core inflation markedly below the 2% target. This Reduced pressure on domestic market
may cause some concern for the Riksbank as it could
contribute to further accelerating the decline in inflation
expectations.
The door is thus open for monetary easing. With low in-
flation, a weaker labour market, low policy rates interna-
tionally and a risk of further SEK appreciation, the Riks-
bank should cut rates this year. But when the economy
starts to recover in the latter part of 2013, the bank will
embark on a hiking cycle.
A paradigm shift for the SEK
The SEK has become a safe-haven currency in 2012. The
reasons are the modest exposure of the Swedish economy
to troubled areas, solid public finances and a highly Paradigm shift for SEK
competitive business sector that generates surprisingly
strong growth and increased interest rate differentials.
Going forward, we expect the SEK to weaken versus the
EUR in step with a gradual stabilisation of the situation
internationally and a narrowing of interest rate
differentials. However, EUR/SEK will remain at levels
below 9 throughout the forecast period. The USD will
continue to strengthen against most currencies, including
the SEK.
Torbjörn Isaksson
torbjorn.isaksson@nordea.com +46 8 614 8859
13 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
13. ■ Denmark
Languishing economic growth
Rising activity towards 2014 Despite the prospect of a historically high savings ratio
our forecast assumes that consumer spending will
Housing market improvement gradually increase towards the end of 2014. The
Delayed effect from public money flow accelerating consumer spending growth will partly be
driven by a pent-up consumption need and partly by
Negative central bank rates work generally improved sentiment about the Danish
economy. Not least the prospect of increasing
Low growth and significant uncertainty characterise the employment and a pick-up in the housing market will
Danish economy; activity has been stuck at largely the boost Danish households’ propensity to consume over
same level since the autumn of 2010. Over coming the forecast period.
quarters, we expect the Danish economy to gradually
return to the growth track this year, expanding at a rate of Housing market shows signs of healing
0.7% this year, accelerating to 1.9% in 2013 and 2.1% in Since mid-2008 the ailing housing market has been a
2014. millstone around the neck of the Danish economy. The
contracting housing wealth, slower credit growth and
On the domestic front the expected reversal of economic historically low activity in the construction sector are
trends will be driven by households’ large pent-up some of the main reasons why consumer spending has
potential, which will gradually turn into growing stagnated. However, the latest monthly property price
consumer spending. At the same time, growth is data from Statistics Denmark suggest that housing prices
underpinned by a delayed effect from the public sector, have stabilised since the start of the year. We believe this
with expected positive contributions from consumer development marks the beginning of a new regime in the
spending and investment. Danish housing market where the historically low
funding costs and substantial pent-up demand over time
Consumers hang on to their money will lead to market consolidation.
Although the payout of saved-up early retirement money
is close to DKK 20bn (already surpassing official But prices will be kept in check by a still large supply of
forecasts), the effect on retail sales and consumer unsold homes, low turnover and high youth
spending has so far not materialised. Instead many have unemployment, which limits the number of first-time
chosen up save up more; total household bank deposits buyers. Trapped between these two opposing trends,
have swelled to an all-time high. The Danish economy housing prices are likely to remain more or less
therefore lacks the boost to activity that normally results unchanged during the rest of the year. Into 2013 we
from consumer spending. Moreover, the government’s expect housing prices to slowly edge higher, surpassing
scope for stimulating economic activity through its tax expected inflation again in 2014. The moderately rising
policy is limited. housing prices will first and foremost be concentrated in
the large cities where demographics suggest growing
Denmark: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (DKKbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 815 1.9 -0.8 0.6 1.8 1.9
Government consumption 497 0.3 -1.3 0.4 0.8 0.8
Fixed investment 314 -3.7 0.2 2.8 4.0 4.7
- government investment 33 8.5 5.2 8.5 -12.0 2.5
- residential investment 80 -7.4 8.8 -5.8 4.7 5.0
- business fixed investment 201 -4.4 -3.8 5.0 7.1 4.9
Stockbuilding* -20 0.1 0.0 0.0
Exports 794 3.2 7.0 2.0 2.9 3.5
Imports 731 3.5 5.2 2.6 3.6 3.6
GDP 1.3 0.8 0.7 1.9 2.1
Nominal GDP (DKKbn) 1,668 1,772 1,783 1,818 1,879 1,949
Unemployment rate, % 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.2
Gross unemployment level, '000 persons 164.5 162.1 165.0 168.7 163.2
Consumer prices, % y/y 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.2
Hourly earnings, % y/y 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.1
Nominal house prices, one-family, % y/y 2.8 -2.8 -4.3 1.2 1.9
Current account (DKKbn) 96.9 119.1 105.0 95.0 85.0
- % of GDP 5.5 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.4
General govt. budget balance (DKKbn) -47.4 -34.5 -71.0 -40.0 -10.0
- % of GDP -2.7 -1.9 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5
Gross public debt, % of GDP 42.9 46.6 45.5 44.5 43.0
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)
14 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
14. ■ Denmark
upward pressure on demand. Stagnant consumption
Negative central bank rates a success
During the debt crisis the Danish central bank has been
forced to pursue a very proactive monetary policy to
keep the DKK stable versus the EUR. As a vital part of
this defence, the central bank cut its CD rate to -0.20% in
early July. It is the first time in Denmark’s history that
the CO rate is in negative territory. So far this move has
had the desired effect. The DKK has stabilised at a solid
level against the EUR without the central bank needing
to intervene in the market. This contrasts sharply with the
situation in May and June when more than DKK 36bn
was sold to defend the Danish fixed exchange rate
regime.
Public money flow drying out The central bank’s CD rate is negative
In a bid to break the current economic deadlock the
government has decided to bring forward public
investment projects to the tune of DKK 19bn. At the
same time public spending is budgeted to grow by DKK
18bn this year and an additional DKK 8bn in 2013 –
corresponding to real growth of 1.5% and 0.1%,
respectively. Despite these intentions public spending
decreased by 1.0% in H1, while public investment only
increased very modestly. So the Danish economy has so
far not received the originally planned boost from fiscal
policy. The explanation to this sluggishness should be
found in the long implementation period for public
investment and in the fact that public-sector spending
historically has been very difficult to fine-tune. Against Improved competitiveness
this background, there is a likelihood of a strong ketchup
effect in coming quarters, which will help pull the Danish
economy out of the doldrums provided that the
government fulfils its own plans.
Improved competitiveness drive exports forward
After a brief dip at the beginning of the year, exports are
growing again – partly driven by sustained growth in key
export markets, partly by improved competitiveness.
This is chiefly a result of a weakening of the trade-
weighted DKK, which has made Danish products
comparatively cheaper in international markets.
But also the past year’s sharp drop in the pace of wage
growth combined with productivity gains means that unit Decoupling between employment and house prices
labour costs now increase more slowly than in
Denmark’s key export markets. And although the effect
of the lower unit labour costs will not feed though until
slightly longer out, it is a vital precondition for
maintaining the necessary momentum in exports.
Helge J. Pedersen
helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 33333126
Jan Størup Nielsen
jan.storup.nielsen@nordea.com +45 33333171
15 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
15. ■ Finland
Finnish economy has cooled down across the board
Exports will not recover until 2013 sector, for instance, turned down again in the first half of
the year. In our forecast, we assume export volumes to
Growth in private consumption will slow down continue declining in the latter part of the year. The
Employment will fall less than previously forecast decreasing world trade growth will weaken production
expectations globally and decrease investment needs.
Public sector deficit will decrease This is bad news to the Finnish export industry, as its
main products are raw materials, production supplies and
As expected, economic activity has decreased in Finland investment goods. We expect international demand to
across the board after the first quarter of this year. strengthen moderately in 2013. Export volumes will
Exports have contracted, investment has continued to increase but growth will still remain modest.
decline and the growth in private consumption has
slowed down. Imports have decreased more than exports, Growth in private consumption to slow down
which is, in particular, a sign of weakening in domestic Private consumption increased at a brisk pace in Q1 this
demand. What is positive, is that employment has not yet year compared to Q4 2011. This was a result of the one-
weakened. However, it is probably only a question of off additional salary items based on collective
time before it does. agreements, which boosted retail sales, and the car tax
hike that entered into force at the beginning of April,
Based on preliminary data, the economy contracted in Q2 which made people purchase new cars earlier than they
compared to the previous quarter. Our forecast assumes otherwise would have. The growth in retail sales volumes
that the decline continues in Q3. This means that we slowed down markedly in Q2 and in July it stopped
believe the Finnish economy is in recession, just like altogether. Car sales, too, have decreased sharply.
many other European countries. As in our previous Thanks to the strong beginning of the year, private
forecast, however, we believe the recession will not last consumption will significantly boost the economic
long and there is no need to change the previous GDP growth this year despite the recent cooling.
growth forecast of 0.8% for this year. On the other hand,
international trade has cooled down more than expected, For the remaining part of the year and for 2013, the
which indicates that an export-led recovery from the outlook for private consumption will remain weak. The
recession will be much slower than previously estimated. increase in salaries and pensions as well as the decrease
That is why we have lowered our forecast for economic in mortgage interest rates will support households'
growth in Finland in 2013 to 1.2% (previously 1.6%). In purchasing power. The growth in purchase power will,
2014, we expect growth to speed up to 2.8% as especially however, be restrained by tax increases and the expected
the North-European economies will recover. weakening in employment. Taxes will increase as the
value added tax will be raised and no inflation
Exports will not recover until 2013 adjustments of income limits will be made in the income
Finnish goods exports have varied widely over the past tax brackets. In addition, the rather rapid growth in
year – and the variation has taken place around a consumer prices will continue and erode purchasing
decreasing trend. New orders received by the industrial power. Consumer prices are expected to rise by 2.5%
Finland: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (EURbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 94 3.3 2.5 2.2 1.3 2.0
Government consumption 43 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5
Fixed investment 34 1.9 6.8 -3.2 0.6 3.8
Stockbuilding* -2 0.5 1.1 -0.3 0.3 0.1
Exports 64 7.5 2.6 -1.7 2.6 7.1
Imports 62 6.9 5.7 -3.0 2.9 6.2
GDP 3.3 2.7 0.8 1.2 2.8
Nominal GDP (EURbn) 172.3 178.8 189.4 196.0 201.6 210.1
Unemployment rate, % 8.4 7.8 7.7 8.0 7.9
Industrial production, % y/y 8.3 0.9 -3.0 2.0 4.0
Consumer prices, % y/y 1.2 3.4 3.0 2.5 2.3
Hourly w ages, % y/y 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.0 3.0
Current account (EURbn) 2.9 -2.2 -0.5 0.4 1.2
- % of GDP 1.6 -1.1 -0.2 0.2 0.6
Trade balance (EURbn) 2.6 -1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.8
- % of GDP 1.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 0.4
General govt budget balance (EURbn) -4.5 -1.2 -1.0 -0.1 1.0
- % of GDP -2.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.5
Gross public debt (EURbn) 90.0 93.0 99.0 104.1 108.4
- % of GDP 50.3 49.1 50.5 51.6 51.6
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)
16 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
16. ■ Finland
next year. The household savings rate continues to Cooling of world trade brings problems to exports
decline which means that an increasing part of income is
used for consumption. The accommodating monetary
policy is well timed as the consumption outlook would
be much gloomier without it.
Investment to decline, employment to weaken
The bleak short-term outlook for exports, production and
consumption as well as the major uncertainty over the
Euro area developments will eat away economic agents'
confidence and thus decrease willingness to invest and
weaken employment prerequisites. Machinery and
equipment investment increased sharply last year but
turned down again already in the beginning of this year.
The decline is expected to continue at least for the rest of
Weak sentiment points to an outright fall in GDP
this year. Construction investment is also expected to
decline. The decrease in the number of granted
construction permits indicates that the decline in
residential and other construction will continue and even
steepen during the latter part of the year. Reconstruction
will compensate for the decline in new construction.
We expect both the traditional machinery and equipment
investment and construction investment to increase again
in 2013. A precondition for this, however, is that the
global economy will grow as forecast, the Euro area debt
crisis will clear up and confidence will return.
The labour market has provided very positive surprises
this year. Employment measured with the number of A decline in GDP is bad news for employment
people has not weakened (although the number of
working hours has probably started to decrease) and the
number of unemployed people has not started to increase.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has stabilised at
7.5% in recent months. The unemployment rate for 2012
seems to remain at 7.7% (the previous forecast was
8.0%), which is lower than in 2011. We still expect
unemployment to increase, especially in 2013 with the
unemployment rate rising to an average of 8%.
Slower decrease in public sector deficit
Tax revenues will increase at a slower pace due to the
sluggish economic growth, even though income taxation
will be tightened and value added tax will be raised. The
public sector deficit will, however, continue to decline. Confidence + labour market = weak consumption
The deficit is estimated to decrease to 0.1% of GDP in
2013 and turn into a small surplus in 2014. The
government's annual borrowing need will remain at EUR
4–6bn during the forecast period, which will increase the
public debt close to 52% of the value of total production
already in 2013.
Pasi Sorjonen
pasi.sorjonen@nordea.com +358 9 165 59942
17 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
17. ■ USA
Moving slowly forward
If a perfect storm of fiscal chaos is avoided … After all, the economy’s fundamentals are much im-
proved. Businesses are highly profitable, banks have re-
... progress towards full employment in 2014 capitalised and the deleveraging process in the private
Stronger underlying inflation pressures set to emerge sector has come a long way. Still, households –
especially younger families – are likely to continue the
Fed to start tightening by mid-2014 process of balance sheet repair. Home prices seem to
have bot-tomed, but the expected slow price increases
US economic growth is likely to remain moderate in the provide lim-ited support to household net worth going
next few years through 2014, constrained by household forward.
deleveraging, fiscal restraint, subpar global demand,
slower working-age population growth and a deteriora- In 2014 growth is expected to slow to a pace more in line
tion of job skills. with potential. Full employment, defined as an unem-
ployment rate of 7%, should be achieved in late 2014.
The US economy clearly lost momentum during Q2
2012, but recent economic data paint a slightly brighter QE3 only in case of policy errors
picture, pointing towards GDP growth of 1½-2% in H2 The effects of the drought in the Midwest on food com-
2012. Stronger disposable income growth, easier finan- modity prices and a rebound in oil prices are likely to
cial conditions and bank lending standards, continued push headline inflation meaningfully higher by mid-
housing recovery, the end of the payback for the warm 2013.
winter weather and less drag from seasonal adjustment
distortions suggest that economic momentum will pick With the business cycle adjustment more or less com-
up slightly in the near term. pleted in 2014, signs of stronger underlying inflation
pressures are projected to emerge in the latter part of the
However, while the threat from the Euro-area crisis cur- forecast horizon. As a result, we expect the Fed to start
rently appears less menacing, US fiscal challenges raising policy rates and gradual unwind its securities
around the end of this year imply that risks to the US holdings around mid-2014.
outlook over the next two to three quarters remain tilted
to the downside. The probability of another US recession In the more immediate future, however, the Fed is likely
is uncomfortably high at 20-25%, in our view. later this month to postpone the expected first rate hike
from late 2014 to mid-2015. In our view, the central bank
On the other hand, an orderly resolution of the pending is currently overestimating the labour market slack and
fiscal issues, as assumed in our baseline scenario, should hence underestimating the longer-term risk of inflation.
pave the way for stronger confidence and hence brighter Additional asset purchases (QE3) by the Fed are not
economic prospects in 2013, when growth is projected to expected unless the Euro-area crisis blows up again or if
exceed potential assumed at around 2% annually through US policymakers fail to resolve the pending fiscal issues
most of the year. in an orderly manner.
USA: Macroeconomic indicators (% annual real changes unless otherwise noted)
2009 (USDbn) 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E
Private consumption 9,845.9 1.8 2.5 1.9 2.0 2.1
Government consumption and investment 2,967.2 0.6 -3.1 -2.0 -0.9 -0.3
Private fixed investment 1,703.5 -0.2 6.6 9.4 6.9 6.9
- residential investment 354.2 -3.7 -1.4 11.7 9.4 12.4
- equipment and softw are 898.3 8.9 11.0 8.3 6.9 6.0
- non-residential structures 451.1 -15.6 2.8 10.2 4.5 3.5
Stockbuilding* -154.2 1.5 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Exports 1,587.5 11.1 6.7 4.3 5.2 5.3
Imports 1,976.2 12.5 4.8 4.2 5.7 5.4
GDP 2.4 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.2
Nominal GDP (USDbn) 13,973.7 14,498.9 15,075.7 15,716.1 16,276.1 16,885.0
Unemployment rate, % 9.6 9.0 8.1 7.7 7.3
Industrial production, % y/y 5.4 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.3
Consumer prices, % y/y 1.6 3.1 2.1 2.2 2.2
Consumer prices ex. energy and food, % y/y 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.2
Hourly earnings, % y/y 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.2
Current account (USDbn) -442.0 -465.9 -471.5 -569.7 -506.5
- % of GDP -3.0 -3.1 -3.0 -3.5 -3.0
Federal budget balance (USDbn) -1,293.5 -1,300.0 -1,100.0 -900.0 -700.0
- % of GDP -8.9 -8.6 -7.0 -5.5 -4.1
Gross public debt, % of GDP 95.2 99.5 106.5 112.0 116.2
* Contribution to GDP growth (% points)
18 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS
18. ■ USA
A perfect storm of fiscal chaos hopefully avoided Moving slowly forward
Three US fiscal issues pose a threat to the economic out-
look: the so-called fiscal cliff, another increase in the
Treasury debt ceiling and the need for longer-term fiscal
sustainability.
As we approach the end of the year, attention will focus
even more sharply on the risk of the fiscal cliff – the un-
fortunate coincidence of about USD 600bn in tax in-
creases and spending cuts that will take effect next year,
should Congress not act to change current law. Failure to
scale back the fiscal cliff could knock as much as 4¼%
off real GDP in 2013, enough to push the US economy
back into recession. Moreover, the Treasury is likely to
hit the debt ceiling again in December. Assuming it uses
Slow progress towards full employment in late 2014
the accounting strategies that have been employed in the
past, the Treasury seems likely to be able to finance gov-
ernment operations under the current limit until some-
time in February 2013, by which point Congress must
raise the debt ceiling. Failure to do so would imply de-
fault on some of the US government’s obligations.
With both political parties in full campaigning mode,
none of these issues are likely to be resolved before the
presidential elections on 6 November. As seen too often
during the past two years, there will most likely be plenty
of political brinkmanship and the accompanying uncer-
tainty will probably come at a cost to the economy and
the financial markets later this year and in early 2013.
The longer the uncertainty persists, the more likely it will Stronger underlying inflation pressures in 2014
hurt confidence, hiring, investment and spending.
However, our expectation is that when pressured by the
threat of another recession, policymakers will take action
to reduce the fiscal drag on growth (to around 0.5% of
GDP) either during the so-called lame duck session after
the election or in January when the new government
takes office. Obviously, the outcome of the November
elections will be very crucial to how the fiscal debate
plays out. In this context, the congressional election re-
sults will be at least as important as who wins the White
House, Obama or Romney.
Extending the otherwise expiring tax cuts and other eas-
ing measures and repealing the automatic federal spend- Recession if economy is pushed off the fiscal cliff
ing cuts would significantly reduce the risk of recession, 1 1
% points Fiscal policy impact on GDP growth % points
but at the cost of a substantially larger budget deficit.
0 0
Thus, with an extension of current policy federal debt
held by the public would rise from 70% of GDP today to -1 -1
around 90% by 2022 compared to around 60% if current
-2 -2
law is not changed. In other words, apart from resolving
the fiscal cliff issue and raising the debt ceiling -3 -3
policymakers will also soon have to address the need to
-4 -4
restore longer-term fiscal sustainability in order to shift
Current law Current policy
the risk to the economic outlook from negative to -5 -5
positive. 2011 2012 2013
Source: Nordea Marktes, Congressional Budget Office and Office of
Management and Budget
Johnny Bo Jakobsen
johnny.jakobsen@nordea.com +45 3333 6178
19 ØKONOMISK OVERSIKT │SEPTEMBER 2012 NORDEA MARKETS