An Economic History of Esoteric Metals Markets
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An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets: Batteries, Electronics, Light Alloys, Antimony, China, Cheap Energy, Industrialization, Globalization and High Technology
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An Economic History of Esoteric Metals Markets
- 1. AN ECONOMIC HISTORY OF THE ESOTERIC METALS MARKETS: Batteries, Electronics, Light Alloys, Antimony, China, Cheap Energy, Industrialization, Globalization and High Technology John P. Sykes & Allan Trench Centre for Exploration Targeting, Curtin University & University of Western Australia Joshua Wright Rowton Ltd Metal Pages China Metals Week Conference Beijing, China: 16th Sept 2014
- 2. Metal Pages China Metals Week The past is no indicator of the future… 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Price (2012 US$/t) Antimony & Light Metals Antimony Aluminium Magnesium 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Price (2012 US$/t) Battery Metals Cadmium Cobalt Lithium Nickel Vanadium 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Price (2012 US$/t) Some Electronic Metals… Bismuth Selenium Tin 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Price (2012 US$/t) …More Electronic Metals Gallium Germanium Tantalum ? ? ? ? Slide 2 of 39
- 3. Metal Pages China Metals Week But the past has some lessons to teach 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Price (2012 US$/t) Antimony & Light Metals Antimony Aluminium Magnesium 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Price (2012 US$/t) Battery Metals Cadmium Cobalt Lithium Nickel Vanadium 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Price (2012 US$/t) Some Electronic Metals… Bismuth Selenium Tin 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Price (2012 US$/t) …More Electronic Metals Gallium Germanium Tantalum ? ? ? ? Slide 3 of 39
- 4. Metal Pages China Metals Week STARTING WITH A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE WORLD An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Slide 4 of 39
- 5. Metal Pages China Metals Week Finite world, with finite mineral deposits 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets “Earth rise” from Apollo 11 Image: The Guardian/NASA Old Geevor tin mine, Cornwall, UK, operated late 18th century to 1990 Image: Shutterstock Slide 5 of 39
- 6. Metal Pages China Metals Week Defined by supply, demand & discovery 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets …Demand… …and Discovery Supply… The history of civilisation to some extent is the history of finding, exploiting and using mineral resources. Slide 6 of 39
- 7. Metal Pages China Metals Week Stone Age tools to… 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 160,000 - 5,000 years ago Damaidi Rock Art, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Northwest China 7,000-8,000 years ago Source: http://history.cultural- china.com/en/56History9528.html Stonehenge, Southern England 4,000-5,000 years ago Map: Wikipedia Slide 7 of 39
- 8. Metal Pages China Metals Week Bronze Age tools, metallurgy & trade… 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 5,000 - 3,000 years ago Map: University of Maryland Images: Wikipedia / Shutterstock Pyramids of Giza Egypt 2,686-2,181 BCE Late Bronze Age Trade Routes of the Mediterranean Houmuwu Ding Shang Dynasty, China 1,300-1,046 BCE Slide 8 of 39
- 9. Metal Pages China Metals Week …and Iron Age smelting & empires 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 1,000BCE – 500AD Terracotta Warriors Qin (Ching) Dynasty, China 221-206 BCE Iron Age Trans-Eurasian Trade Routes Map: Dorling Kindersley “Roman Iron Armour” in the Film: Gladiator Slide 9 of 39
- 10. Metal Pages China Metals Week Renaissance mining & ‘exploration’… 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 1300-1750AD Images from De Re Metallica by Agricola, 1556 Marco Polo visited Kublai Khan of Yuan Dynasty China ~1275 Map of Voyages of Discovery to 1610 Map: World Maps Online Image: Wikipedia Slide 10 of 39
- 11. Metal Pages China Metals Week Industrial Age steel, coal & gold fever… 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Steamship advert for Californian gold rushes (1849) Australian gold miners (1875) 1750-1914AD Image: Schmoop Bessemer converter at Station Square, Pittsburgh “Iron and Coal” by William Bell Scott (1855-60) Images: Wikipedia Image: State Library of New South Wales Slide 11 of 39
- 12. Metal Pages China Metals Week …and discovery of a different type 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Cu Pre-Bronze Age (Pre-3,500 BCE) Sn Bronze & Iron Ages (3,500-1 CE) C Fe Cu Ag Au Pb Cr As S Zn Hg Sn Sb Al Renaissance & Industrial Age (1669-1913 CE) H Li Na K Rb Cs La Ac Be Mg Ca Sr Ba Sc Y Ra Ti Zr Hf V Nb Ta Mo W Mn Ru Os Co Rh Ir Ni Pd Pt Cd B Al Ga In Tl Si Ge N P Bi O Se Te Po F Cl Br I He Ne Ar Kr Xe Rn Ce Th Pr Nd U Sm Eu Gd Tb Dy Ho Er Tm Yb Lu Pa Pu Modern Age (1937 CE-present) Fr Rf Db Sg Tc Re Bh Hs Mt Ds Rg Cn Uut Fl Uup Lv At Uus Uuo Pm Np Pu Am Cm Bk Cf Es Fm Md No Lr Slide 12 of 39
- 13. Metal Pages China Metals Week INTO THE MODERN AGE… An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Slide 13 of 39
- 14. Metal Pages China Metals Week Globalisation… 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Slide 14 of 39
- 15. Metal Pages China Metals Week …facilitated by cheap energy… 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Source: IMGArcade.com; Data: Platts UDI Database, June 2012; NB; Circle size represents installed capacity (MW) Slide 15 of 39
- 16. Metal Pages China Metals Week …and high technology… 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Slide 16 of 39
- 17. Metal Pages China Metals Week …fuelled by Chinese industrialisation 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets History of World Gross Domestic Product (GDP): % of Total in $1990 at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Source: The Economist; Data: Angus Madison Slide 17 of 39
- 18. Metal Pages China Metals Week …including light alloys 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Images: Shutterstock & Images of the Elements Slide 18 of 39
- 19. Metal Pages China Metals Week …electronics… 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Images: Shutterstock & Images of the Elements Slide 19 of 39
- 20. Metal Pages China Metals Week …and batteries 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Images: Shutterstock; Images of the Elements & Techhive.com Slide 20 of 39
- 21. Metal Pages China Metals Week But not ‘Rise of the Esoteric Metals’? 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Market size of Base, Precious & Esoteric Metals over the last 100 years in 2012 dollars (millions) Antimony Electronic Metals (Bi, Ga, Ge, In, Se & Ta) Light Metals (Mg & Ti) Battery Metals (Cd, Co, Li & V) Precious Metals (Au, Ag & PGMs) Base Metals (Al, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sn & Zn) 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1913 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 Data: USGS Slide 21 of 39
- 22. Metal Pages China Metals Week THE STRANGE & ESOTERIC STORY OF ALUMINIUM An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Slide 22 of 39
- 23. Metal Pages China Metals Week Aluminium: the 20th Century Metal 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1913 1917 1921 1925 1929 1933 1937 1941 1945 1949 1953 1957 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Market size of the Base Metals over the last 100 years in 2012 dollars (millions) Copper Tin Zinc Lead Aluminium Nickel 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1913 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 Data: USGS Slide 23 of 39
- 24. Metal Pages China Metals Week How to use a lot of metal For a metal to be mined in large volumes it must: 1.Be relatively abundant in the crust 2.Geologically concentrate into mineral deposits 3.Be easy to mine the ore from the ground 4.Be easy to extract the metal from the ore 5.Have diversified and substantial demand 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets DISCOVERY SUPPLY DEMAND Based on: Krishnamurthy & Gupta (2004) Slide 24 of 39
- 25. Metal Pages China Metals Week Solving supply & demand for aluminium 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets ABUNDANCE CONCENTRATION 8.2% Factors in place prior to 20th century Images: sandatlas.org; earlham.edu; tempraturedetectors.com & shutterstock MINING PROCESSING DEMAND Problems solved in late 19th & early 20th century Slide 25 of 39
- 26. Metal Pages China Metals Week CAN THERE BE ANOTHER ‘ALUMINIUM STORY’? An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Slide 26 of 39
- 27. Metal Pages China Metals Week Most are just too rare in the crust... 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Aluminium 82,000 ppm Tin 2.2 ppm Magnesium 23,000 ppm Tantalum 2 ppm Titanium 5,600 ppm Germanium 1.8 ppm Vanadium 160 ppm Antimony 0.2 ppm Cadmium 0.11 ppm Nickel 80 ppm Silver 0.07 ppm Cobalt 20 ppm Selenium 0.05 ppm Lithium 20 ppm Indium 0.049 ppm Gallium 18 ppm Bismuth 0.048 ppm Data: Wikipedia Slide 27 of 39
- 28. Metal Pages China Metals Week Some do not geologically concentrate 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Usually mined as primary product Usually mined as by-product Aluminium Antimony (lead-zinc ores) Lithium Bismuth (lead-zinc ores) Magnesium Cadmium (lead-zinc ores) Nickel Cobalt (nickel-copper ores) Tantalum Gallium (bauxite ores) Tin Germanium (lead-zinc ores) Titanium Indium (lead-zinc ores) Selenium (nickel-copper ores) Vanadium (nickel-copper ores) Slide 28 of 39
- 29. Metal Pages China Metals Week Some require alternative mining techniques... 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Usually mined via conventional hard rock mining Requires alternative mining techniques Aluminium Germanium Lithium (brine mining) Antimony Indium Magnesium (brine mining) Bismuth Nickel Titanium (placer mining) Cadmium Selenium Tin (placer mining & conflict minerals) Cobalt Vanadium Tantalum (conflict minerals) Gallium Slide 29 of 39
- 30. Metal Pages China Metals Week Some need improvements in processing technology... 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Well established processing techniques Known processing challenges Aluminium Magnesium (Brine extraction technology needs improving) Lithium Tantalum (Wide variety of complex processes – none established) Nickel Titanium (Kroll process to produce titanium sponge is very expensive) Tin Vanadium (Separation from iron ores difficult, usually sold as ferroalloy) Antimony, Bismuth, Cadmium, Cobalt, Gallium, Germanium, Indium & Selenium (Processed as a by-product) Slide 30 of 39
- 31. Metal Pages China Metals Week Some need broader uses... 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Wide range of uses Narrow range of uses Aluminium (Transportation, packaging, infrastructure) Antimony (Mainly a flame retardant) Cobalt (Alloys, batteries, catalysts, pigments) Bismuth (Mainly in chemicals, electronics only minor) Lithium (Batteries, metallurgy, ceramics) Cadmium (Mainly used in batteries) Magnesium (Alloys, transportation, electronics, chemicals) Gallium (Almost exclusively used in semiconductors) Nickel (Steel, alloys, batteries) Germanium (Mainly used in optics, electronics use minor) Tantalum (Capacitors, alloys, chemicals) Indium (Mainly used in electronics) Tin (Solders, packaging, chemicals, alloys) Selenium (Mainly used in glass industry, solar cell use minor) Titanium (Steel, alloys, transportation, industry) Vanadium (Mainly used in steel alloys) Slide 31 of 39
- 32. Metal Pages China Metals Week Some will always be ’precious’ 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Metal Abundance Concentration Mining Processing Demand 2012 Production (tonnes) 2012 Market (US$ million) Gold x √ √ √ √ 2,500 139,800 Silver x ? √ √ √ 25,500 25,600 PGMs x x √ ? √ <500 8,800 Antimony x x √ x x 174,000 2,200 Indium x x √ x x <1,000 ~500 Bismuth x x √ x x 8,200 <500 Selenium x x √ x x 2,200 <500 Cadmium x x √ x x 20,900 <50 Data: USGS Slide 32 of 39
- 33. Metal Pages China Metals Week Most only have base metal potential... 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Metal Abundance Concentration Mining Processing Demand 2012 Production (tonnes) 2012 Market (US$ million) Lead ? ? x x ? 5,170,000 13,000 Tin x √ x √ √ 240,000 6,800 Cobalt ? x √ x √ 100,000 3,100 Lithium ? √ x √ √ 650,000 2,700 Gallium ? x √ x x <500 200 Tantalum ? √ x x √ <1,000 200 Germanium ? x √ x x <500 250 Data: USGS Slide 33 of 39
- 34. Metal Pages China Metals Week But a few have bulk metal potential... 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Metal Abundance Concentration Mining Processing Demand 2012 Production (tonnes) 2012 Market (US$ million) Aluminium √ √ √ √ √ 45,900,000 136,900 Copper ? √ √ √ √ 16,900,000 102,200 Nickel ? √ √ √ ? 2,220,000 38,800 Zinc ? √ √ √ ? 13,500,000 28,500 Titanium √ √ x x √ 6,159,200 3,900 Magnesium √ √ x x √ 802,000 3,400 Vanadium √ x √ x x 74,300 1,900 Data: USGS Slide 34 of 39
- 35. Metal Pages China Metals Week SOME FINAL THOUGHTS An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Slide 35 of 39
- 36. Metal Pages China Metals Week Understanding the future? •History is to some extent about the discovery, mining and use of metals. •However, until the industrial revolution only a few metals were known to mankind. •Modern globalised society has therefore had a wider variety of esoteric metals available for economic use. •The esoteric metals have facilitated mass transportation, communication, energy use and ultimately globalisation. •However, with the exception of aluminium, none of the esoteric metals have become substantial markets. •Aluminium has always been abundant in the crust and concentrated into mineral deposits. •However, in the late 19th/early 20th century bulk mining, the Hall- Heroult process, cheap energy and mass transportation facilitated a massive increase in the aluminium market. 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Slide 36 of 39
- 37. Metal Pages China Metals Week Innovating the future! •For other esoteric metals to become major industrial metal markets they will need to be: –Sufficiently abundant in the crust. –Concentrate into mineral deposits. –Be simple to mine. –Be simple to process. –And have a broad range of important industrial uses. •Some esoteric metals are geologically rare. •However, most esoteric metals just require improvements in mining and/or processing technology, and/or new and wider industrial uses. •All factors must however be in place - no single technology will be the solution – look for discovery and ‘technology packages’. •Understanding the future of the esoteric metals markets is about the interaction of discovery, supply and demand innovations. 16 Sep 2014 An Economic History of the Esoteric Metals Markets Slide 37 of 39
- 38. THANK YOU For more information: Centre for Exploration Targeting: www.cet.edu.au Greenfields Research: www.greenfieldsresearch.com Rowton Ltd: www.rowton-ltd.com Contact information: John P. Sykes: johnpaul.sykes@postgrad.curtin.edu.au Joshua Wright: josh.wright@rowton-ltd.com Allan Trench: allan.trench@curtin.edu.au
- 39. Learn more on “Mineral Economics for Geologists” Date: 2nd December 2014 Website: http://www.cet.edu.au/education-and- training/short-courses/mineral-economics- for-geologists Contact: Centre for Exploration Targeting info-cet@uwa.edu.au Prof Allan Trench allan.trench@crugroup.com Mr John Sykes johnpaul.sykes@postgrad.curtin.edu.au