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The investment climate for mining, exploration and mineral sands - Sykes - Mar 2018 - MinEx Consulting

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The investment climate for mining, exploration and mineral sands - Sykes - Mar 2018 - MinEx Consulting

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The investment climate for mining, exploration and mineral sands - Sykes - Mar 2018 - MinEx Consulting

  1. 1. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration The current investment landscape for mining, exploration & mineral sands John Sykes Strategist, MinEx Consulting also PhD Candidate, Centre for Exploration Targeting, The University of Western Australia (UWA) Lecturer, Strategic Management of Resource Companies and Strategic Analysis & Consulting, Business School, UWA Lecturer, Strategic Planning & Practice, Australian Institute of Management, WA Managing Director, Greenfields Research 19th Australian Mineral Sands Conference 22nd March 2018, Perth, WA Image: Shutterstock
  2. 2. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration How do we make sense of this? The White House's Climate Change Believers Are Headed Out the Door - Time, 15 March 2018 U.S.-Backed Fighters Take Largest Syrian Oil Field From ISIS - The New York Times, 22 October 2017 Sanjeev Gupta to beat Tesla's Elon Musk with bigger battery in South Australia - Australian Financial Review, 16 March 2018 Brazil dam collapse: BHP to give $235 million more for clean-up of environmental disaster - ABC, 22 December 2017 Rio Tinto unit Turquoise Hill targeted by Mongolian Anti- Corruption Authority - Australian Financial Review, 14 March 2018
  3. 3. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration From the world to mining & exploration to mineral sands The themes 1. Globalisation and sustainable development 2. The ‘tech boom’ and disruptive innovation 3. Climate change and the energy transition The insight How does each theme affect the mineral sands industry? Contextual environment (The rest of the world) Transactional environment (The mining industry) The mineral sands industry Macroeconomics Source: Ramirez & Wilkinson (2016)
  4. 4. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration GLOBALISATION & SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT The current investment landscape for mining, exploration and mineral sands Image: The Independent
  5. 5. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Nearly a decade of economic & financial growth… -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 World Annual Real GDP Growth (%) -2 4998 9998 14998 19998 24998 29998 34998 Dow Jones Year-end Industrial Index 2017 estimate & 2018-20 forecasts made by the World Bank 2018-20 forecasts based on annual average growth rate 2008-2017 Data: World Bank, Statista
  6. 6. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …but concerns about inequality, China & the environment 2017 estimate & 2018-20 forecasts made by the World Bank 340 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Atmospheric CO2 Levels (ppm) ‘Elephant’ curve of global inequality and growth, 1980-2016 Data: World Inequality Report 2018; NOAA
  7. 7. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …make for ‘interesting times’ Images: The Independent; Climate Depot; Quora; NewsBusters; National Review; The Australian; InDaily; Courier Mail; News.com.au; Shutterstock
  8. 8. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …with implications (good and bad) for mining Less green & red tape Government support Lower taxes(?) Strong coal, uranium(?), steel & base metals demand Focus on health and safety(?) Strong economic growth(?) Less access to foreign talent & projects Weak economic growth(?) Resource nationalism & harder social licence Weaker demand for uranium(?), renewable and battery metals Source: Sykes et al., 2017
  9. 9. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration It was simple in the binary politics of the Cold War… Socialist Capitalist Australian Labor, UK Labour, US Democrats Australian Liberals, UK Conservatives, US Republicans Free Trading Protectionist ‘Left wing’ ‘Right wing’ Mid-20th Century ‘Western’ politics Source: Sykes et al., 2017
  10. 10. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …then the ‘left’ was joined by a range of ‘progressives’ Progressive Conservative Australian Labor, UK Labour, US Democrats Australian Liberals, UK Conservatives, US Republicans Globalist Localist ‘Left wing’ ‘Right wing’ Late-20th Century ‘Western’ politics $ Source: Sykes et al., 2017
  11. 11. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …and then many ‘progressives’ went ‘global’… Progressive Conservative Rudd & Gillard Labor Australian Liberals, UK Conservatives, US Republicans Globalist Localist ‘New Left’ ‘Right wing’ Post-Cold War ‘Western’ politics $$ Blairite Labour Clinton Democrats Return to a Victorian ‘classic liberal’ stance Source: Sykes et al., 2017
  12. 12. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …before a return to localism, on both the left and right Progressive Conservative Globalist Localist ‘New left’ (now old) ‘The Right’ (not-so-neocon) Contemporary ‘Western’ politics ‘Alt-right’ (Corn Law Tories) ‘Old left’ (now renewed) Source: Sykes et al., 2017
  13. 13. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration How do we interpret these many contradictory views? Progressive Conservative Globalist LocalistContemporary ‘Western’ politics ‘Old left’ (now renewed) ‘New left’ (now old) ‘Alt-right’ (Corn Law Tories) ‘The Right’ (not-so-neocon) Source: Sykes et al., 2017
  14. 14. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Politics is like a playground… Swings • The normal ‘back and forth’ of democratic politics; • In a long-term industry to not to react to every ‘swing’ as can be wasteful and isolating; • The mining industry generally over-reacts to the short-term. Roundabouts • Longer term structural shifts that re-shape all sides of politics; • These are important to adapt to as they will only reverse over the long-term; • The mining industry generally misses these shifts. Climbing frames • Pre-determined elements of the future that are yet to play out; • You cannot avoid tackling these issues, even if you want to; • Often are recognised by the industry, but nonetheless are difficult to act upon. Source: Sykes et al., 2017
  15. 15. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …but we’re on the roundabout and the climbing frame! Is the shift against ‘sustainable development’ a swing, roundabout, or climbing frame? • A climbing frame: difficult to envision a developed society paying less attention to environmental and social conditions e.g. rise of environmentalism in Chinese middle class. Is the shift against ‘globalisation’ a swing, roundabout, or climbing frame? • A roundabout (maybe): a key aspect of ‘globalisation’ is ‘glocalism’ i.e. the strengthening of local identity and rights as everything is placed in global context – the franchise ‘McDonaldisation’ of the world. Image: Local style McDonald’s fish burger in Singapore Image: Environmental protests in China Images: South China Morning Post, Wikipedia; Sources: Steger, 2013; The Economist, 2016; Sykes et al., 2017
  16. 16. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …and mineral sands may be about to fall off! 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 A$millions Mineral sands exploration expenditure in Australia Exploration Expenditure (real) for Mineral Sands Mineral Sands as a Share of All Exploration Expenditure (real) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Global mineral sands discoveries by year Giant Major Moderate Minor Giant: >250Mt HMS Major: > 50Mt HMS Moderate: > 5Mt HMS Small: <=5Mt HMS (ilmenite eq.) Data: Australian Bureau of Statistics; MinEx Consulting © 21 March 2018
  17. 17. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration The next wave of exploration should be under cover… Image: UNCOVER; Data: MinEx Consulting © 21 March 2018 • But mineral sand deposits are mainly surficial… • They will likely not benefit from this wave of innovation.
  18. 18. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …but the mineral sands industry will have to go abroad • It may be difficult to find major new mineral sands discoveries in Australia; • Mineral sand explorers may be forced to abroad to areas of increased political risk; • This may make ‘social licence to operate’ even more important than elsewhere in the minerals industry. Data: MinEx Consulting © 21 March 2018 Global mineral sands discoveries, 1997-2017
  19. 19. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration THE ‘TECH BOOM’ & DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION The current investment landscape for mining, exploration and mineral sands Image: Shutterstock
  20. 20. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Chinese growth is normalising & US growth is strong… -3.0 -1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 USA & China Real GDP Growth (%) 24% 15% 61% Global share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 2016 (current US$) USA China ROW Data: World Bank 2017 estimate & 2018-20 forecasts made by the World Bank Total: US$75.8 trillion
  21. 21. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration But, titanium dioxide’s China story may not be over…* 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 North America China kgpercapita Steel Use Intensity 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 North America China kgpercapita Copper Use Intensity 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 North America China kgpercapita Titanium Use Intensity Data: World Steel Association; International Copper Study Group; World Bank; Iluka Ratio ~ 1.0 : 1.8 Ratio ~ 1.0 : 1.8 Ratio ~ 2.5 : 1.0 *Ask an expert – this is one of the things I’ll be asking them at this conference!
  22. 22. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration But this is the return of post-industrial ‘weightless’ economy 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 NASDAQ Composite (1998) ASX 200 (1998) Data: Yahoo Finance; Images: Shutterstock
  23. 23. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration The mining industry is currently experiencing FOMO Real estate +8.9% Healthcare +21.9% Finance +5.8% Mining & Metals -1.4% Telecoms -2.9% Energy -3.5% I.T. +10.8% Utilities 0.8% Consumer Staples 2.3% +12.9% Consumer Discretionary Industrials +12.6% Materials 2.3% Data: ASX; NB: Indices are for ASX200, apart from ‘Mining & Metals’ which is based on ASX300. Materials, based on ASX200, includes Mining & Metals constituents of ASX200. Real estate based on REITS. Finance excludes A-REITs ASX sector 5-year performance
  24. 24. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …our margins will now come from better operation 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Index of US Open Pit Mine Costs vs Nominal Copper Prices US OP Mine Index (1999) Copper Price Index (1999) Source: Trench & Sykes, 2014; Data: Costmine In theory… In actuality…
  25. 25. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Will the ‘tech boom’ make us more innovative? Traditionally miners appear to be “sustainers”… Bigger, Bigger, Bigger… …and now automated! …whilst the oil industry seems a bit more disruptive? Based on: Christensen, 1997; Images: miniature-construction-world.co.uk; The Telegraph; Shutterstock; mining-technology.com; stanford.edu; lancs.ac.uk
  26. 26. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration e.g. the future of the past is still the future! …by 2135… there will hardly be any miners underground. Minerals will be won either by robotized machinery or by in situ extraction of the valuable ingredients. …biotechnology will be increasingly employed in situ to convert metals into a readily soluble form. Mineral processing would then become largely a matter of handling solutions, thus obviating the need for crushing and grinding.” - Arvi Parbo, former BHP Chairman, in 1986 The radically different view of the future of mining has been the same for a long time. Why? Source: Strauss, 1986
  27. 27. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …as is the current mining industry innovation package Incremental e.g. mining Proximal e.g. petroleum Radical e.g. rest of world The ‘fringe’ DronesRemote mining Big data Driverless trucks Diagram: Iluka; Images: Steele, 2003; Concurso Paleontologia; OZ Treasure; Miners Museum Cape Breton
  28. 28. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Mining is already behind the digital curve… Source: HBR
  29. 29. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …the fringe is where radical innovation is occurring… • Four key areas of science, technology and innovation: Biotechnology & genetics Computer science & IT* Nanotechnology Neurology & psychology Sources: Turney, 2010; Imperial Tech Foresight*Computer science, IT, data science, machine learning, AI etc., are proximal industries to mining so we are already aware of their potential – what about the others?
  30. 30. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …but it can be hard to see the links and the reality Source: Imperial Tech Foresight
  31. 31. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …and we have abandoned our own innovation engine 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 A$Millions Total Exploration Expenditure (Australia) Nominal Real 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 A$Millions Total Exploration Expenditure (Australia) Greenfields Brownfields 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 A$permetredrilled Unit Exploration Cost (Australia) Nominal Real Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
  32. 32. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration But before we get carried away, society has a view too… Remember: • Drones are militarily technology used for spying on & killing people! • Big data is military technology used to spy on people… • A.I. is the stuff of Hollywood dystopia… • Remote ‘lairs’ are what the villains have! Remote exploration Yes No Local engagement Yes No Attack of the Drones The Lone Ranger Local Hero Robinson Crusoe Scenarios for the adoption of remote exploration technologies
  33. 33. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …so we have to be careful not to create problems • Which seems the most plausible skill set to recruit in the future? • Compare it to the previous slide… Remote exploration Yes No Local engagement Yes No Data science Field geology Social science & field geology Social science & data science Capabilities required for each of the remote exploration technology scenarios Image: Star Wars
  34. 34. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration We are already seeing a technology backlash (‘techlash’) The techlash against Amazon, Facebook and Google—and what they can do - The Economist, 20 Jan 2018 Facebook says it can't guarantee social media is good for democracy - Reuters, 22 Jan 2018 James Damore, Google engineer fired for writing manifesto on women’s ‘neuroticism,’ sues company - NBC, 8 Jan 2018 Facebook braces for new E.U. privacy law - The Washington Post, 29 Jan 2018 EU gives Facebook and Google three months to tackle extremist content - The Guardian, 1 Mar 2018
  35. 35. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Beware disruptive innovation in a concentrated industry! Rutile (2017e) Australia Sierra Leone Ukraine Kenya South Africa Other Zircon (2017e) Australia South Africa China Indonesia Mozambique Other • Mining may be about to undergo a rapid period of technological innovation, especially digital; • However, in general highly consolidated industries can be slow adopters leaving them open to disruption; • Especially if there are diversified players in the sector which may be exposed to more competitive parts of the mining industry…Top 5 Market Share: 94% Herfindahl Index (2015): 0.31 (High concentration) Top 5 Market Share: 36% Herfindahl Index (2015): 0.22 (Moderate concentration) Data: USGS; Source: Christensen (1997)
  36. 36. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration CLIMATE CHANGE & THE ENERGY TRANSITION The current investment landscape for mining, exploration and mineral sands Image: Shutterstock
  37. 37. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration What about the fifth technological driver? Source: Imperial Tech Foresight
  38. 38. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration The world is entering the ‘energy transition’… BATTERIES • Power storage / averaging • Portable energy • Rechargeable (reduced waste & energy efficient) RENEWABLES • Theoretically infinite • Non-carbon emission generating (at source) • Distributed sources Increased energy demand Increased environmental focus Increased transport & mobility Image: Shutterstock
  39. 39. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …creating new opportunities for some metals, but not all… RENEWABLES METALS Uranium Rare earths (neodymium, praseodymium & dysprosium) – in the generator magnet Silicon & germanium; Gallium-arsenide; Copper-indium-gallium-selenide (CIGS); Cadmium-telluride Lead-acid Alkaline (zinc- manganese) Lithium-ion (graphite, manganese & cobalt) Nickel-cadmium / zinc Nickel metal (lanthanum-rare earth) hydride Vanadium redox BATTERY METALS Images: Shutterstock; Wikipedia; solarchoice Note absence of titanium & zirconium!
  40. 40. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration However, the energy transition will also affect supply… 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Surface Mine UG Mine Mill Other Steel Equipment, Tyres & Parts Explosives & Reagents Fuel & Electricity Labour Solar power at Sandfire Resources Degrussa mine, WA All electric underground mine planned by Goldcorp at Borden, Canada Wind power for copper mines in Chile owned by Barrick ‘Flexicycle’ using biodiesel power at Pueblo Viejo, Dominican Republic (Barrick) Data: CostMine
  41. 41. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …maybe helping drive mining underground • …but not mineral sands • Surface mining of mineral sands means may miss out on the underground transition • May leave it vulnerable to environmental and socio- political issues Movement towards all electric underground mines Focus on greenhouse gas reduction Health concerns surrounding diesel emissions in confined spaces Improved battery technology Volkswagen NOX & SOX emission scandal Movement towards underground mines Focus on social & environmental footprint of surface mining Fewer surface mineral deposits awaiting discovery MOVEMENT TOWARDS ALL RENEWABLE ELECTRIC UNDERGROUND MINING? Improved automation and remote technology Safer underground mines
  42. 42. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Titanium metal demand is not what it should be… 86% 7% 7% Titanium minerals demand (2012) Pigment (TiO2) Metal Other 55% 29% 8% 8% Titanium metal demand (2012) Industrial Aerospace Military Other • Titanium metal is not widely used, despite it being light and useful because it is expensive; • Aerospace is the main end-use for metal, but it is CO2 intensive; • In theory, aerospace biofuel developments may stimulate the air industry and titanium metal demand; • But cheaper, greener titanium would be even better, as it could then be used across multiple sectors where ‘lightness’ is an asset, e.g. transport, infrastructure, energy… Data: Iluka
  43. 43. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …and we have seen metal markets transform before… 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1900 1909 1918 1927 1936 1945 1954 1963 1972 1981 1990 1999 2008 Growth in market size indices of copper and aluminium 1900-2014 (1900 = 1) Cu Index Al Index 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1900 1909 1918 1927 1936 1945 1954 1963 1972 1981 1990 1999 2008 Growth in market size indices of copper and nickel 1900-2013 (1900 = 1) Cu Index Ni Index 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Growth in market size indices of copper and uranium 1950-2013 (1950 = 1) Cu Index U Index Source: Sykes et al., 2016; Data: USGS
  44. 44. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …but only when it all comes together! Nickel Discoveries in Sudbury & New Caledonia Bulk open pit mining Flotation & smelting advances Demand for armour Ability to handle radiation Uranium Demand for nuclear weapons Demand for nuclear power Bulk mining for very low grade radium Radium-uranium discoveries in the Congo Aluminium Bauxite discoveries in North America Bayer and Hall-Heroult processes Transportation demand Bulk open pit mining Source: Sykes et al., 2016; Images: Shutterstock
  45. 45. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Titanium metal is too energy intensive, i.e. expensive 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Lead(furnace) Steel Lead(smelt) Copper(smelt) Zinc(smelt) Zinc(electro) Copper(leach) StainlessSteel Nickel(smelt) Nickel(leach) Aluminium Titanium MJ/Kg Energy consumption during metals production • Titanium has a very high strength & stiffness-to-weight ratio in comparison to steel making it far more useful… in theory; • However, it is very expensive due to the energy consumed during production drastically affecting its price-performance ratio in comparison to steel; • The industry has long waited for a breakthrough replacement to the Kroll process that is less energy intensive; • Unfortunately, we’re still waiting… 3% 17% 33% 12% 35% Gross energy requirement during titanium production Mining & processing Smelting Refining Reduction Electrolysis Data: Norgate et al., 2006; Gao et al., 2018
  46. 46. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration …and too polluting! But is a solution appearing? 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Lead(blastfurnace) Steel Lead(smelting) Copper(smelting) Zinc(Imperial) Zinc(electrolytic) Copper(leaching) StainlessSteel Nickel(smelting) Nickel(leaching) Aluminium Titanium KgCO2eq./Kg CO2 emissions during metals production • Renewable energy would resolve CO2 intensity issues; • Would this alone stimulate titanium metal demand? • However, ‘super’ cheap renewable energy (e.g. near-free solar) would resolve both cost and environmental issues and could be the market growth trigger… • …thus an alternative to the Kroll process may not be required. 4% 17% 9% 18% 52% Electricity consumption during titanium production Mining & processing Smelting Refining Reduction Electrolysis Data: Norgate et al., 2006; Gao et al., 2018
  47. 47. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Thank You! Contact details John Sykes Strategist MinEx Consulting Perth, Australia Email: John.Sykes@MinExConsulting.com Website: www.MinExConsulting.com Copies of this and other similar presentations can be downloaded from our website
  48. 48. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration Acknowledgements • I’d like to acknowledge the efforts of the Centre for Exploration Targeting scenario planning teams whose work contributed to this presentation including Jon Bell, Leila Ben Mcharek, Rob Bills, Aida Carneiro, Ivy Chen, Aaron Colleran, Tim Craske, Liz Dallimore, Deon deBruin, Edoaldo Di Dio, Joe Dwyer, Mayara Fraeda, Nick Franey, Simon Gatehouse, Jeremie Giraud, Marcelo Godefroy Rodriguez, Chris Gonzalez, Isabel Granado, Matt Greentree, David Groves, Mike Haederle, Mike Hannington, Nick Hayward, Amanda Hellberg, Paul Hodkiewicz, Amy Imbergamo, Constanza Jara, Caroline Johnson, Heta Lampinen, Helen Langley, John Libby, Martin Lynch, Stuart Masters, Michael Mead, Adele Millard, Joanne Moo, Suzanne Murray, Sandra Occhipinti, Ahmad Saleem, Ian Satchwell, Robert Sills, John Southalan, David Stevenson, Narendran Subramaniam, Siobhan Sullivan, Daniel Sully, Janet Sutherland, Marcus Tomkinson, Marnie Tonkin, Jan Tunjic, Will Turner, Stanislav Ulrich, Jessica Volich, Wenchao Wan, Peter Williams, Marcus Willson and Afira Zulkifli Tahmali, as well as my PhD supervision team: Allan Trench, Campbell McCuaig, Mark Jessell and Nico Thebaud, and finally Richard Schodde at MinEx Consulting.
  49. 49. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration References • Christensen, C., 1997, The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, Harvard Business Review Press: Brighton (MA), 225p. • Gao, F., Nie, Z., Yang, D., Sun, B., Liu, Y., Gong, X., & Wang, Z., 2018, Environmental impacts analysis of titanium sponge production using Kroll process in China, Journal of Cleaner Production, 174, pp 771-779. • Norgate, T.E., Jahanshahi, S., & Rankin, W.J., 2007, Assessing the environmental impact of metal production processes, Journal of Cleaner Production, 15, pp 838-848. • Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A., 2016, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press: Oxford, 242p. • Steger, M., 2013, Globalization: A Very Short Introduction, Oxford University Press: Oxford, 176p. • Strauss, S.D., 1986, Trouble in the Third Kingdom: Minerals Industry in Transition, Mining Journal Books: London, 227p. • Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., & Jessell, M., 2017, Charles Dickens on the (potentially) changing role of globalisation and sustainability in the long-term future of mining and exploration, Tenth International Mining Geology Conference, Hobart (TAS), 20-22 September, pp 239-256. • Sykes, J.P., Wright, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Discovery, supply and demand: From Metals of Antiquity to critical metals, Applied Earth Science, 125:1, pp 3-20. • Trench, A., & Sykes, J.P., 2014, Perspectives on Mineral Commodity Price Cycles and their Relevance to Underground Mining, 12th AusIMM Underground Operators’ Conference, Adelaide (SA), 24-26 March, pp 19-31. • Turney, J., 2010, The Rough Guide to The Future, Rough Guides: London, 376p.

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