Depletion of resources

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Depletion of resources

  1. 1. Michal Till
  2. 2. <ul><li>There are more and more resources available. </li></ul>
  3. 3. The L imits to G rowth (1972) Years to depletion predictions in 1972 vs. 1992 <ul><li>1972 1992 </li></ul><ul><li>Gold 29 35 </li></ul><ul><li>Silver 42 39 </li></ul><ul><li>Nickel 96 110 </li></ul><ul><li>Copper 48 50 </li></ul><ul><li>Lead 64 70 </li></ul><ul><li>Manganese 94 101 </li></ul><ul><li>Zinc 50 78 </li></ul><ul><li>Tin 61 53 </li></ul><ul><li>Coal 150 166 </li></ul>Hampl, Mojm ír Vyčerpání zdrojů – dobře prodejný mýtus, Praha, CEP – Centrum pro ekonomiku a politiku, 2004
  4. 4. Proved reserves in millions of tons, 1950 and 1990 <ul><li>1950 1990 </li></ul><ul><li>Bauxite 1400 21500 </li></ul><ul><li>Iron 19000 145000 </li></ul><ul><li>Tin 6.0 4.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Nickel 17 59 </li></ul><ul><li>Zinc 70 145 </li></ul><ul><li>Lead 40 70 </li></ul><ul><li>Copper 100 350 </li></ul><ul><li>Chromium 70 420 </li></ul><ul><li>Manganese 500 980 </li></ul>Hampl, Mojm ír Vyčerpání zdrojů – dobře prodejný mýtus, Praha, CEP – Centrum pro ekonomiku a politiku, 2004
  5. 5. Simon-Erlich wager <ul><li>Erlich: &quot; In the 1970s and 1980s . . . hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death “ </li></ul><ul><li>“ I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000 ” => $10,000 bet on five commodity metals </li></ul>
  6. 6. Simon-Erlich wager Author: Loren Cobb. Data source: US Geological Survey Data Series 140. Data URL: http://minerals.usgs.gov/ds/2005/140 The ecologist lost. (Maybe it’s because he is an entomologist and his specialization are butterflies )
  7. 7. Gas Canadian government educational comics, 1970’s
  8. 8. Oil : prices
  9. 9. Oil: proven reserves d
  10. 10. Remaining oil breakdown Source: OPEC 2005 Annual Statistical Bulletin , http://www.opec.org/library/Annual%20Statistical%20Bulletin/pdf/ASB2005.pdf
  11. 11. Probability & types of reserves http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.htm
  12. 12. Prices of resources relatative to 1990 US wage
  13. 13. Energy usage vs. GDP (Japan) http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/chouki/index.htm
  14. 14. Sources <ul><li>Simon, J. L. The Ultimate Resource II: People, Materials, and Environment, 2 nd Edition, Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1996 </li></ul><ul><li>Hampl, Mojm ír Vyčerpání zdrojů – dobře prodejný mýtus, Praha, CEP – Centrum pro ekonomiku a politiku, 2004 </li></ul>

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