E.B.E.C 2014 - Team Greece - Day 4 Case Study

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Marios Bikos

E.B.E.C 2014 - Team Greece - Day 4 Case Study Topic: "DB Schenker Rail‘s engagement in CIS-in the future?"

Engineering

Greece - Case Study
Thrasyvoulos Karydis
Alexandros Kogkas
Konstantinos Fragkakis
Marios Bikos
Day 4: DB Schenker Rail‘s engagement in CIS-in the future?

Outline
1 Greece – Case Study
• Analysis
• Problem Approach
• Scenario 1
• Politics-legal
• Strategy
• Results
• Scenario 2
• Indications
• Challenges
• Risks

Analysis
2 Greece – Case Study
• Political situation in Russia
• Conflicts between Russia-UN
• Scenario 1: Alleviation of Russia-UN relationships.
• Scenario 2: Severe sanctions by UN to Russia, economic war.
Problem Approach
Threats to Deutsche Bahn

Politics-Legal
3 Greece – Case Study
SCENARIO 1: Alleviation of Russia-UN relationships
• Alleviation of Russia-UN relationships
• No further sanctions to Russia from UN
• Dominate in European logistics
• Continue cooperation with RZD for Asia logistics
• Become a part of UTLC
• Establish a company in Kazakhstan
• Establish new network to Africa & Middle East through Greece
Strategy

Results
4 Greece – Case Study
SCENARIO 1: Alleviation of Russia-UN relationships
• Dominate in European logistics
 Spread influence in European railways
 International network alongside the major European rail
freight corridors
• Cooperation with RZD for Asia logistics
 Maintain connection with Russia & Developing Asia
• Become a part of UTLC
 Leading intermodal logistics between Europe & Asia
• Establish company in Kazakhstan
 Customs Union’s advantages: access to Eurasian Railways
• Establish new network to Africa & Middle East through Greece
 Access to strategically important intersection between
Europe-Asia-Africa
Risk Assessment
• Russia & RZD possible aggressive reactions
• US & EU sanctions to Russia

A route to Developing Asia
5 Greece – Case Study
When we mention the Silk Road, we can’t do
it without looking at history.
Liu Yunshan, one of seven top China’s Politburo members
China takes a strategic move to step in
Central Asia through Silk Road
DailyNews, July 2014
SCENARIO 2: Severe sanctions by UN to Russia / economic war

6 Greece – Case Study
• Indications:
 China’s exponential growth in GDP
 Middle East will play key value (USA)
 Unpredictability in Russia’s next move (World War 3?)
• Challenges:
 Geo-political: Different countries/interests involved
 Economical: Economic Belt Shifting to the East
• Risks:
 Conflict with Russia/RZD
 China’s intentions
A route to Developing Asia
SCENARIO 2: Severe sanctions by UN to Russia / economic war

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E.B.E.C 2014 - Team Greece - Day 4 Case Study

1. Greece - Case Study Thrasyvoulos Karydis Alexandros Kogkas Konstantinos Fragkakis Marios Bikos Day 4: DB Schenker Rail‘s engagement in CIS-in the future?

2. Outline 1 Greece – Case Study • Analysis • Problem Approach • Scenario 1 • Politics-legal • Strategy • Results • Scenario 2 • Indications • Challenges • Risks

3. Analysis 2 Greece – Case Study • Political situation in Russia • Conflicts between Russia-UN • Scenario 1: Alleviation of Russia-UN relationships. • Scenario 2: Severe sanctions by UN to Russia, economic war. Problem Approach Threats to Deutsche Bahn

4. Politics-Legal 3 Greece – Case Study SCENARIO 1: Alleviation of Russia-UN relationships • Alleviation of Russia-UN relationships • No further sanctions to Russia from UN • Dominate in European logistics • Continue cooperation with RZD for Asia logistics • Become a part of UTLC • Establish a company in Kazakhstan • Establish new network to Africa & Middle East through Greece Strategy

5. Results 4 Greece – Case Study SCENARIO 1: Alleviation of Russia-UN relationships • Dominate in European logistics  Spread influence in European railways  International network alongside the major European rail freight corridors • Cooperation with RZD for Asia logistics  Maintain connection with Russia & Developing Asia • Become a part of UTLC  Leading intermodal logistics between Europe & Asia • Establish company in Kazakhstan  Customs Union’s advantages: access to Eurasian Railways • Establish new network to Africa & Middle East through Greece  Access to strategically important intersection between Europe-Asia-Africa Risk Assessment • Russia & RZD possible aggressive reactions • US & EU sanctions to Russia

6. A route to Developing Asia 5 Greece – Case Study When we mention the Silk Road, we can’t do it without looking at history. Liu Yunshan, one of seven top China’s Politburo members China takes a strategic move to step in Central Asia through Silk Road DailyNews, July 2014 SCENARIO 2: Severe sanctions by UN to Russia / economic war

7. 6 Greece – Case Study • Indications:  China’s exponential growth in GDP  Middle East will play key value (USA)  Unpredictability in Russia’s next move (World War 3?) • Challenges:  Geo-political: Different countries/interests involved  Economical: Economic Belt Shifting to the East • Risks:  Conflict with Russia/RZD  China’s intentions A route to Developing Asia SCENARIO 2: Severe sanctions by UN to Russia / economic war

8. The End Greece – Case Study

E.B.E.C 2014 - Team Greece - Day 4 Case Study

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