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Yun Liu
Head of Analytics
Global eBay Partner Network
2
eBay Partner Network: eBay’s Affiliate Channel
• eBay’s largest paid internet marketing channel
• EPN gives shoppers access to 800M+ items daily
• EPN works with 300k partners in 13+ countries Buyers
CUSTOMERS
Sellers
PublisherseBay
EPN focus: Demand Generation
3
Competitive Pricing
• Revenue Share + Bonus for
New/ReActivated
• Standard Rate Card + Payout
Adjustment by Business
4
EPN works with different sites
• Business Model
– Contents
– Online Shopping comparison
– Loyalty/cashback
– Portal
– Etc
• Optimization
– Pricing Elasticity
– Tools and Landing page
– Network Quality
– Partner development
5
Elasticity high
ROI
Content OSC
Role of analytics: Data Driven Action
• Focus is Action
– Insights: statistics such as trends, correlations, incrementality
– Actions: pricing based on iROI and elasticity
– Balance isn’t just art if we leverage A/B testing
• No surprise –> surprise
– Surprise outcomes if based on incrementality
• But causality (incrementality) is impossible.
– Best one could do is estimation based on test.
6
DATA Insight Action
Elasticity high
iROI
Content
OSC
(illustration)
Attribution (correlation) => Incrementality (causality)
• Attribution: Direct Qualified Transaction Amount $1 => d$1
• How much of that $1 sales is incremental? => i$x
• Incremental portion UNKONWN.
– A/B Test could tell direction with significance.
7
$1
One common practice: d$1 = i$1.5?
• Halo effects
• Untracked $ due to cookie deletion, etc
8
$1 $0.5
d$1 = i$0.5?
• Substitution for Organic, SEO, SEM traffic
9
0$0.5
Incrementality test and research at eBay
10
Paid Search (SEM) results:
Brand Keywords (ebay)
Non_Brand Keywords: fraction of $1
New/Reactivated: Positive impact on sales
EPN Incrementality tests
•Key hypotheses
– BUY MORE
– More User
• A/B test by individual sites
– Typical test runs from 20 to 30 days
– Control (ads on) group normally expose ads to 100k users
– 50k clicks generated
• Different BM with different results
11
Breakdown purchase funnel: Sales/User
more buyer + buy more
12
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝑈𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑠
=
𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠
𝐵𝑢𝑦𝑒𝑟𝑠
∗
𝐵𝑢𝑦𝑒𝑟𝑠
𝑈𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑠
Different stories from Difference traffic (demographics)
13
Benefits: Split the d$1 based on test results=> pricing
• % of d$1 is estimated based on test results
• iROI is better than ROI to enable better pricing
14
Elasticity high
iROI
Content
OSC
(illustration)
ROI
Summary
• Analytics is driving EPN optimization
• Different business models have different incrementality
• A/B test could provide significant estimation for incrementality
• Balance of iROI and elasticity is simplified using the framework
DATA Insight Action
testing pricing

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ebay Affiliate Marketing Network Analytics Introduction

  • 1. Yun Liu Head of Analytics Global eBay Partner Network
  • 2. 2 eBay Partner Network: eBay’s Affiliate Channel • eBay’s largest paid internet marketing channel • EPN gives shoppers access to 800M+ items daily • EPN works with 300k partners in 13+ countries Buyers CUSTOMERS Sellers PublisherseBay
  • 3. EPN focus: Demand Generation 3
  • 4. Competitive Pricing • Revenue Share + Bonus for New/ReActivated • Standard Rate Card + Payout Adjustment by Business 4
  • 5. EPN works with different sites • Business Model – Contents – Online Shopping comparison – Loyalty/cashback – Portal – Etc • Optimization – Pricing Elasticity – Tools and Landing page – Network Quality – Partner development 5 Elasticity high ROI Content OSC
  • 6. Role of analytics: Data Driven Action • Focus is Action – Insights: statistics such as trends, correlations, incrementality – Actions: pricing based on iROI and elasticity – Balance isn’t just art if we leverage A/B testing • No surprise –> surprise – Surprise outcomes if based on incrementality • But causality (incrementality) is impossible. – Best one could do is estimation based on test. 6 DATA Insight Action Elasticity high iROI Content OSC (illustration)
  • 7. Attribution (correlation) => Incrementality (causality) • Attribution: Direct Qualified Transaction Amount $1 => d$1 • How much of that $1 sales is incremental? => i$x • Incremental portion UNKONWN. – A/B Test could tell direction with significance. 7 $1
  • 8. One common practice: d$1 = i$1.5? • Halo effects • Untracked $ due to cookie deletion, etc 8 $1 $0.5
  • 9. d$1 = i$0.5? • Substitution for Organic, SEO, SEM traffic 9 0$0.5
  • 10. Incrementality test and research at eBay 10 Paid Search (SEM) results: Brand Keywords (ebay) Non_Brand Keywords: fraction of $1 New/Reactivated: Positive impact on sales
  • 11. EPN Incrementality tests •Key hypotheses – BUY MORE – More User • A/B test by individual sites – Typical test runs from 20 to 30 days – Control (ads on) group normally expose ads to 100k users – 50k clicks generated • Different BM with different results 11
  • 12. Breakdown purchase funnel: Sales/User more buyer + buy more 12 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑈𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑠 = 𝑆𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝐵𝑢𝑦𝑒𝑟𝑠 ∗ 𝐵𝑢𝑦𝑒𝑟𝑠 𝑈𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑠
  • 13. Different stories from Difference traffic (demographics) 13
  • 14. Benefits: Split the d$1 based on test results=> pricing • % of d$1 is estimated based on test results • iROI is better than ROI to enable better pricing 14 Elasticity high iROI Content OSC (illustration) ROI
  • 15. Summary • Analytics is driving EPN optimization • Different business models have different incrementality • A/B test could provide significant estimation for incrementality • Balance of iROI and elasticity is simplified using the framework DATA Insight Action testing pricing

Editor's Notes

  1. We are eBay’s affiliate marketing program, working with 300k partner websites and a presence in 13+ countries, giving shoppers access to 800M items daily We work with content sites, blogs & forums, coupon & review sites, driving $2bil in ecommerce volume annually as eBay’s largest paid internet marketing channel
  2. eBay affiliate program for over 10 years, making it one of the oldest, most established in the world. Then Launched eBay Partner Network in April 2008 Our Focus is Demand Generation (rather than Supply).
  3. Biased attribution vs. unbiased test. Lift is outcome of unbiased test. Incrementality is the lift applied onto the biased attributed metric.
  4. Overall lift is sum of component lifts.