Dr. Glenn Prince-Abbi speaks on Economic War Room and Offensive Strategy - interview with Daily Times Nigeria

Strategy expert and development economist, Dr. Glenn S. Prince-Abbi is
an International Consultant who has previously consulted for the World Bank,
United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Shell
Petroleum. He has also consulted for several banks & financial institutions and
other organizations on corporate strategy and organizational development.
The expert who, beside English, speaks French and Spanish and runs offices in
Singapore and Shanghai, China, Dr. Prince-Abbi insists that in spite of all the
challenges and the current economic recession, Nigeria does have the potential
to experience economic growth that is similar to the China economic growth
story, if the right strategies are adopted. In this Interview with Olisa
Egbunike, Group General Manager, Daily Times, Dr. Prince-Abbi
proposes that President Buhari should do something completely new and
innovative: Set up a vibrant, up-and-running Economic War Room and
prosecute what he calls “Offensive Strategy” to completely re-invent the
Nigerian Economy.
Sir, the Buhari Administration has been upbeat that it has succeeded in areas like
security, anti-corruption, the recent release of 21 Chibok girls from Boko Haram
and more to be released. But the Nigerian economy is in recession. What do you
think the Federal Government needs to do about the Nigerian Economy at this
stage? What are your broad thoughts?
The stabilization and then the progressive growth of the Nigerian economy
is of extreme importance at this time. It is obvious that successes registered
by the Buhari Administration in any other area are beclouded by the current
state of the economy. This is the truth. First of all, talking about the
economy, I won’t belabour the point or say the usual things. President
Buhari needs to set up an Economic War Room. By an Economic War Room,
I mean something akin to the War Room or War Bunker just exactly as it’s
done by good generals during battle. All major wars across time and
geography were fought that way. I don’t want to digress into the details of
military history and military strategy. But I wonder why we cannot as a habit
transpose the techniques, the rugged resoluteness, the fervency and urgency
of the battlefield to the socioeconomic plane to crack the challenges that we
face. This consternation is one of my biggest curiosities when I examine
national economies as well the management of corporate organizations. Yes,
the economy is in dire straits. What we have at hand is a battle for the soul of
Nigeria. We are facing war on the Economic Front. We need to get it right
and quickly too to avert a social cataclysm. The complexities of the Nigerian
society cannot sustain a long-running recession. And of course I believe that
this recession will be short-lived. But much more needs to be done. I believe
we are also on the verge of Nigeria’s finest hour. But there is need to gain
from what I call the potency of acceleration. Speed is a fundamental
resource in any form of competitive or strategic situation.
Full Text of Interview with Daily Times Nigeria
Monday October 31 and Tuesday November 1, 2016
“President Buhari Needs to Set Up Economic War Room and Prosecute
Offensive Strategy to Re-invent the Nigerian Economy” - Glenn Prince-Abbi
Glenn S. Prince-Abbi
“By an Economic War
Room, I mean something
akin to the War Room or
War Bunker just exactly as
it’s done by good generals
during battle. All major
wars across time and
geography were fought
that way…We are facing
war on the Economic
Front. We need to get it
right to avert a social
cataclysm.”

P a g e | 2 Need for Economic War Room and Offensive Strategy - Dr. Prince-Abbi’s interview with Daily Times Nigeria
And to kick this recession lion out of the barn and insulate the Nigerian
economic system beyond any shocks, we must draw from very strong
warfare instincts. We are at a historic moment in Nigeria. Nigeria’s
economic recession is also a phenomenon of great opportunity to be
tapped. This is war and we must fight it with the same mindset. It is nerve-
racking warfare in the economic realm.
Today, a number of national economies across the world are experiencing
some form of turbulence or another. Forecasts and predictions of the
future of major, emerging or minor economies are all generally gloomy.
The problem is not limited to Nigeria. Globally, there are on-going
concerns and efforts by managers of national economies to fix their
economy and steer it into safe waters. There are prevalent threats to
national economies – from Europe to North America, to Asia including
China and then to Africa. The smartest managers will get it right.
Emerging economic challenges must be foreseen and tackled head-on with
fitting solutions before they fester into a current problem.
My prescription is that President Buhari should not do the normal thing.
He must adopt Offensive Strategy through the full set-up of an Economic
War Room. Of course, I do acknowledge that a major economic retreat was
carried out by the Federal Executive Council and other stakeholders, who
in those two days examined what needs to be done, with perspectives
taken from a wide array of sources, including various participants in the
economic sectors of the government as well as private sector persons.
Papers were presented. I acknowledge too that resolutions were taken and
action plans obviously agreed. It will work. But this is certainly not
enough. It is what I call the Normal Game. An Economic War Room is not
a three-day retreat after which everybody goes back home; just as a War
Room during conventional military warfare is not a three-day summit.
Yes, the executive retreat is Ok. There is nothing wrong with it. But it is in
the realm of the Normal Game. The Normal Game is the normal thing
people do under a situation of challenge. It goes this way: Something has
gone wrong; let us come together and brainstorm to see how to correct it.
We come together. We make speeches, present papers. We try to make it
more action-oriented, so we agree actions and go back to work, to apply
those actions and progressively correct what has gone wrong. Very nice
very cool. It is the Normal Game. It might work, yes it does often work.
But it is very limited. It lacks the power of creative and innovative
disruption that is required to turn a threat into long-lasting opportunity
and strength. It lacks the vitality to achieve within a short time 360
degrees turn-around, and to sustain that turn-around. It lacks the power
to bring forth possibilities that were completely unthought-of previously.
This is in the realm of what I prefer to call Offensive Strategy. So in my
valuation, we have before us a choice between the Normal Game and
Offensive Strategy. And between the two, the easier choice is the Normal
Game. The Normal Game is convenient to adopt; Offensive Strategy is
tough. The Normal Game is incremental in approach. Offensive Strategy
is disruptive. The Normal Game maintains the status quo and thrives on
gradualism. Offensive Strategy challenges the status quo and thrives on
Quantum Leaps. The Normal Game operates on existing work processes
as the delivery system. Offensive strategy challenges time-worn practices,
“Today, a number of
national economies
across the world are
experiencing some form
of turbulence or another.
Forecasts and predictions
of the future of major,
emerging or minor
economies are all
generally gloomy. The
problem is not limited to
Nigeria.”

discards and disrupts existing models and adopts completely new modes
of thought and action to achieve the goal. Offensive Strategy completely
re-invents. In achieving these, Offensive strategy is partly based on the
laws of acceleration and speed and completely hinged on the powers of
innovation and imagination. I am persuaded that within this essential
weakness of the moment with respect to the Nigerian economy lies the
overwhelming strength of the future of Nigeria. That strength can only be
achieved by Offensive Strategy. Hence it is a moment of opportunity for
PMB to make himself great.
The kind of Economic War Room I am talking about consists in
institutionalizing Offensive Strategy to completely re-invent the Nigerian
Economy. It would thrive on not just correcting the recession (that is the
least and the most short-lived of the assignment for the Economic War
Room), but indeed on entirely re-working and re-inventing the Nigerian
Economy with a sense of perpetual warfare and strategic initiatives. It is a
revolution. The Economic War Room would be run on perpetual intensity.
There would be all kinds of materials, maps, designs, analyses, massive
amounts of data pouring in on sector by sector and on every thread that
makes the economic tapestry. There would be crisp presentations and
portraits as well as spatial distribution of all the key sectors and potential
drivers of the Nigerian Economy. And the word “potential;” is
fundamental to the possibility mood and battle instincts that prevail in the
Economic War Room. There would even be storytelling sessions – but
these will not be idle tales by moonlight but imaginative and inspirational
stories of the future and what the Nigerian economy can be. These are
scenario-playing stories of the Nigerian economy, portrayed in a way that
nobody has had the audacity to think about. Also mark my word
“audacity”. And the prevailing spirit in the Economic War Room is “Why
not”? Albert Einstein, the very icon of human genius and one of the most
knowledgeable men that ever lived, said that imagination is more powerful
than knowledge – knowledge tells you what is; imagination tells you what
can be. Offensive strategy thrives on big, bold, audacious imagination.
The composition of the team in the Economic War Room will be decidedly
multidisciplinary. Don’t think that I’m prescribing an ongoing Economic
War Room made up of only economists. That’s the conventional thinking,
but it’s not strategy. No single discipline should necessarily dominate.
Perhaps the primary trait and characteristic that is common to every single
member in the team is the power of audacious imagination.
Further, in the Economic War Room, there would be a laser-like focus on a
wide range of the growth opportunity areas in the Nigerian economy. And
these growth opportunity areas are many (I’ll come to them in another
session; what I’m doing now is advance an operating structure). Daily -
not weekly, not bi-weekly, let alone monthly or quarterly – analyses will be
carried out and corrective actions immediately deployed from there. A
strong action and feedback system will be constantly on-going. All the key
economy-contributor institutions will be steadily sending input and
feedback to the Economic War Room in a loop. The Economic War Room
will not close for the day. It will never go to sleep. It will operate 24 hours
a day.
“Offensive Strategy
thrives on big, bold,
audacious
imagination.”

Wao! This is sounding interesting, intriguing and very revolutionary. And
you mean the Economic War Room will work day and night?
Yes, of course. It is a revolutionary approach. When there is a serious war
on-going, night is irrelevant, fighting occurs at night. Those who win in life
are those who operate with the same intellectual and physical nimbleness
at night as they do in the day. I said in war night is irrelevant. In fact, in
the Second World War, Operation Neptune known as the Normandy
Landings and popularly called D-Day which started on Tuesday 6 June
1944 took place at night. Forty-four thousand airborne troops landed
shortly after midnight while the infantry and armoured divisions landed at
different locations by 6:30 in the morning. Massive movement of
hundreds of thousands of troops and materiel took place at night. Night
attack is a constant in warfare. The Economic War Room will operate day
and night. Of course you know the entire world is never asleep. While you
are sleeping here, China, India and the whole of the Far East is wide awake
and working. While you are waking up from bed, if you are an early riser,
that’s the time America is going to bed, and while you are getting to
shutting down for the day at work, America and the entire South America
are starting work, and work momentum is at full intensity. In fact, the
world’s financial system is completely interwoven and is never asleep. The
Economic War Room will take on the world 24 hours a day, seven days a
week. When you have a life-threatening emergency, when your city state is
at war and armoured attacks and artillery and aerial bombardments, and a
full blitzkrieg is launched at you day and night by enemy forces, do you
have time for sleeping? (Chuckles) Now, do you think Nigeria has any less
a challenge on the economic front? Economic warfare must be fought with
pure battlefield mentality. We have been missing it for too long. This is the
time to do something completely disruptive; this is the time to Change in
absolute terms the Nigerian economic narrative.
You seem to be advocating a completely new approach to things and a
completely new way of doing things?
That is exactly what needs to be done in extremely challenging times – a
completely new way of doing things. You must change the entire chemistry
of the mixture to get a different laboratory result from what you have been
having. You see, the Economic War Room concept I am advancing thrives
partly on its style. The setting, the methodology, the sheer psychology of
the effort of building quantum leap capabilities into the Nigerian Economy
unlocks a new wave of creativity to manage and propel the economy even
way beyond the so-called recession onto completely new heights. Getting
out of the recession should not even be a target at all. In fact, I’m not even
worried about recession, because as Offensive Strategy takes traction
through the operations of the Economic War Room the recession, which is
another way to say economic contraction, will end rather quickly and -
very importantly - new and robust gains will register and take traction.
While strongly fixing the present, Offensive Strategy is riveted on the
future and takes grip of the future as if it is happening now. What I mean
here is simple. The Economic War Room will be agog with lots of scenario
playing and scenario planning as well as constant simulations of the short,
“While strongly fixing
the present, Offensive
Strategy is riveted on the
future and takes grip of
the future as if it is
happening now. What I
mean here is simple. The
Economic War Room will
be agog with lots of
scenario playing and
scenario planning as well
as constant simulations
of the short, medium and
longer term possibilities
of the economy in all
facets. Unlocking new
forms of economic
production will be a core
rallying point, supported
by services. These
scenarios are
orchestrated simply with
the sole purpose of
tweaking the factors and
attempting to create
today the desired form
and likeness we want to
see tomorrow.”

medium and longer term possibilities of the economy in all facets.
Unlocking new forms of economic production will be a core rallying point,
supported by services. These scenarios are orchestrated simply with the
sole purpose of tweaking the factors and attempting to create today the
desired form and likeness we want to see tomorrow. It is only under such
setting of the Economic War Room that we can practically form a kind of
Artificial Reality Centre for building the economy, improving the wellbeing
of Nigerians and creating widespread wealth as a nation. By running the
kind of Economic War Room I am talking about and operationalizing
Offensive Strategy, Nigeria can be a major economic power globally.
By the way, let me say that the best of strategies are simple and
implementable; not couched in so many figures and statistical
presentations of historical performance analytics that sometimes people
use in order to appear learned and scholarly.
Sir, you can see that Nigerians are anxious to get back to the days of
economic growth, jobs to be available again and living conditions to be
more tolerable again. Where did we go wrong?
Whatever Nigeria achieved over time by way of economic performance
occurred almost by accident, not by any form of visionary planning and
rugged implementation. Almost every good thing that happened to
Nigeria, happened by accident. It’s like somebody being rich strictly by
inheritance and not being able to do anything with it. Our natural
resources, principally crude oil is behind it all. We didn’t need to be great
planners and innovative implementers to get to where we got. Now this
strong variable must be brought in to rigorously craft a way forward for
Nigeria.
What our past leaders did in the different phases of our national existence
was simply to manage the tremendous resources and the blessings thereof.
There was never once a definite and aggressive focus to create a new future
in an economically revolutionary sort of way - the type that make great
national economies. And since whatever we achieved positively happened
by accident, Nigeria was ineluctably on a downward stride. But the
downward stride has been luckily slow. So Nigeria didn’t go wrong today;
Nigeria went wrong over 50 years ago, and the process of disrepair has
been on. In other words, Nigeria moved progressively to this point of
economic crisis over time. It did not occur by a stroke of bad luck. Or by
bad management between 2015 and 2016 (chuckles). The stage was set for
it. There was steady progression to this point. The trend was too clear to be
missed. The setting was too firm not to deliver. So why should it cause
confusion now? Why should people be scampering now? Recession,
recession, recession, as if it is a thunderbolt from the sky. The progression
could be seen and a graph can be plotted to predict a sad point of climax
for the economy. This is because in typical Nigerian style, the attitude is:
there is always time. This applies everywhere except in politics.
Politics? What do you mean by that, can you explain please?
“By the way, let me say
that the best of strategies
are simple and
implementable; not
couched in so many
figures and statistical
presentations of
historical performance
analytics that sometimes
people use in order to
appear learned and
scholarly.”

When it comes to politics Nigerian politicians are always very proactive. In
fact, social scientists can learn a lot about how to be proactive simply by
doing a case study of Nigerian politicians towards the next election even if
that election is four years to come. In Nigeria, politics is usually more
urgent than economics - social welfare, creating jobs, catalyzing
production, fighting poverty, spreading prosperity or building national
wealth. This is not the consuming passion of the typical Nigerian
politician. While economic strength is the life of a country, it is in the
realm of politics that our leaders’ ingenuity is more in display. This is part
of the tragedy of the Nigerian case. You don’t build a great nation through
the fight and competition for political power (the standard Nigerian
politicians typically apply all their ingenuity here). You build a great
nation through sound, innovative and working systems in all spheres; you
build a great nation through sound people development and capacity
building, solid social welfare, widespread prosperity and national wealth
building. The Nigerian politician at every level typically shows so much
calculation and ingenuity. He can go to any length to secure his political
interests. However, when it comes to the real issues which he seeks power
or position to fix, they are always at the back burner of his consciousness.
They are never urgent. The real issues such as I have mentioned that make
nations great, on those issues he becomes woefully myopic and
pathologically paralyzed to take action. He never goes out of the mould to
think creatively and futuristically. I find this extremely curious and
intellectually interesting (chuckles). My advice to politicians is to think
more about how to build the economic prosperity of this nation at
different levels; how to do what has not been done or considered before to
build the economy of Nigeria. This is how to make the country great, and
then they can enjoy ruling it at the different spheres. Core economic issues
which require urgent proactive action are never treated with a restless
sense urgency or immediacy. That is why Nigeria is where it is as a
country. Always missing opportunity to be great.
Do you mean that something could have been done long ago which was
not done because the political class who we entrusted with the
responsibility to do so never really cared? Do you think our economy could
have been much better in spite of the current challenges of low crude oil
price? What do you make of the global realities of crude oil price slump
and the consequences that have affected us as country at this time? How
could it have been averted?
Let me make it clear that there is practically nothing happening now
concerning the Nigerian economy that surprises me. I expected this. And
this dates back to some eight years ago, right from the time of President
Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. More specifically it was towards the close of the
Obasanjo administration in early 2007 that I started working intensively
on a framework for radically shifting Nigeria’s economy away from oil
through providing viable alternatives under a closely interlinked strategy.
Why didn’t I look more at oil? This is paradoxical. First, being from Rivers
State I grew up as a kid in the midst of oil facilities and gas flares and all
“In Nigeria, politics is
usually more urgent
than economics - social
welfare, creating jobs,
catalyzing production,
fighting poverty,
spreading prosperity or
building national
wealth. This is not the
consuming passion of
the typical Nigerian
politician. While
economic strength is the
life of a country, it is in
the realm of politics that
our leaders’ ingenuity is
more in display. This is
part of the tragedy of
the Nigerian case.”
– Glenn Prince-Abbi

the rest. I have consulted in the past for Shell. I know the industry and its
environmental issues thoroughly. And I am a stakeholder of the first order,
if you like. Why a thinking away from oil? I felt Nigeria needed a
fundamental alternative from oil to grow properly economically.
The economic growth Nigeria has achieved is a lop-sided growth, a sickly
growth, like the distended stomach of a kid that’s sick with kwashiorkor,
because his stomach is big you think he is well-fed. The growth is based on
the oil economy. Oil economy is sickly economics. It is not natural and
cannot stand the pressure of economic turbulence when such arises. And
in the life of nations such turbulence always arises over time, often in
cyclical patterns. Their survival will depend on the firmness of the
fundamentals on which their economy is hinged. I will come to this later.
My hypothesis was that none of the world’s richest countries are crude oil-
exporting or crude oil export-dependent to any degree, and that the
possession of crude oil has proved to be an economic growth deterrent.
Any form of total natural resource-reliance engenders sick national
economies. The Nigerian economy would have grown better if not for the
oil! I am not saying anything new here. The problem is that so much
theorizing has gone into that understanding without specific strategies and
action plans being advanced for adoption. It’s a popular topic. Economic
diversification and all that but hardly have workable, actionable plans,
supported with implementation structures, been advanced for adoption. If
you know me you would realize that if I talk about a problem it means that
I have the specific solution in my cupboard. From that time in mid to late
2007, I felt that a definite strategy needed to be prosecuted by which
Nigeria could begin a definite, programmed and timed shift, towards a
New Economic Model, towards New Sources of Money through New
Nodes of Economic Activity. My fixation was: An economic production
model with practically zero consideration for crude oil. I emphasize the
word zero. That was why I commenced global business conferences,
particularly the one in Shanghai China to drive that thrust. Let me leave
out the details.
I say I am not surprised, and that since 2008 I expected that somehow this
kind of economic distress would kick in, in the near future. By the way, if
you are involved in strategy work, you tend to develop some kind of a third
eye for tomorrow. Tomorrow becomes so clear to you as you look intently
at today and yesterday. Then you take what I call a Strategic Position. A
strategic position is that well-measured, well-articulated, fact-ridden, all-
angles-factored and thoroughly thought-through position that you take on
a matter, and unless the variables change you won’t move from that
position, and the world will finally catch up with you there as reality dawns
on everybody. You use that position to plan, to implement, to review, to
consolidate in an unending loop. When you take such strategic position, if
you have control of the apparatus of decision-making and policy, you will
be in a position to radically work at altering the course of things to align
with that strategic position you have taken, and then you can influence the
outcome in a positive way for the general good.
“If you are involved in
strategy work, you tend
to develop some kind of a
third eye for tomorrow.
Tomorrow becomes so
clear to you as you look
intently at today and
yesterday. Then you take
what I call a Strategic
Position. A strategic
position is that well-
measured, well-
articulated, fact-ridden,
all-angles-factored and
thoroughly thought-
through position that you
take on a matter, and
unless the variables
change you won’t move
from that position, and
the world will finally
catch up with you there
as reality dawns on
everybody.”

However, it’s a totally different ball game if you do not have that control.
And really even if you are the originator of the idea, you don’t have to be in
control. The best you will do is advance your advice or recommendations
to those who have that control. And in Nigeria, most tragically indeed, that
advice will fall on deaf ears ninety percent of the time. You could be
commended for having a bright idea but nobody will take you serious
beyond that point, let alone do something with that counsel! So like
Cassandra, in Ancient Greek mythology, who foresaw the destruction of
Troy and wept her heart out over all the actions of her countrymen, the
Trojans, which she knew would lead to war and the destruction of Troy,
you are left with no choice but see things painfully unfold over time. Hence
for me, my biggest crisis is the painful unfolding before my eyes of
practically, I mean practically, all that I had seen and known would
happen if nothing was done. And nothing indeed was done.
That’s amazing! You mean eight or nine years ago, you foresaw all this that
is happening now and so you’re not surprised?
Yes, it was easy. Now, let me put my no-surprise state in clear and distinct
perspective. You see, I led my consulting firm to pump in lots of resources
into research and development that period, eight to nine years ago. This
effort spanned both international spheres and local. Unmistakably clear to
me like a gun in your face, my strategic intent was to come up with, as I
said earlier, a completely zero-based dependency on oil and gas to vitalize
the Nigerian economy; a completely zero-based dependency on oil and gas
to grow the Nigerian economy; a completely zero-based dependency on oil
and gas to create millions of jobs in say, a space of five years, than has
been achieved in Nigeria in a space of forty years earlier. A completely
zero-based dependency on oil and gas to lift the 40% of Nigerians who live
below the poverty line and are on less than a quarter of a dollar a day.
After the expansive research effort, I developed models on this and
advanced specific actions. These are actionable models complete with
implementation structures and processes with time-bound targets and key
performance indicators. On this score, I made series of presentations to
some state governments and also to the Federal Government then. This
was between 2007 and 2009. I was so naïve, ah ah ah! I was so naïve
because I sincerely believed government leaders were very serious when
they make pronouncements.
I pumped in resources to develop and put solutions forward. But you need
to know somebody who knows somebody that knows somebody and both
or the trio of whom you must sometimes pay upfront or at least spend
good money on, to enable you bring your solutions forward to help your
country (chuckles), as if it is for your benefit. And even when you finally
put it forward at the right quarters, nothing gets done on it. This is the
pain of it.
“I made series of
presentations to some
state governments and
also to the Federal
Government then. This
was between 2007 and
2009. I was so naïve, ah
ah ah! I was so naïve
because I sincerely
believed government
leaders were very serious
when they make
pronouncements.”

Anyway, to cut a long story short, at that time, more specifically by the
time President Obama assumed duties at the White House in early 2009 I
stated very strongly that in five or six years, major buyers of Nigeria’s
crude oil, such as the United States, would have succeeded in finding ways
of depending less on Nigerian crude oil, and would practically stop buying
crude from Nigeria. Why? Because, I argued in my presentations, that they
were exploring all kinds of alternative avenues to minimize or stop their
dependence on importing crude oil, while we were NOT looking at any
other alternative approach on which to hinge our economy other than oil.
Why did you mention the United States and President Barrack Obama?
What was the implication?
You make me laugh! First of all, don’t forget that the global economic
meltdown which started in 2007 and which of course was ignited by the
excesses on Wall Street in New York, was raging like a storm across the
world and causing assaults and damage to national economies. Nigeria’s
economic managers then were saying delightfully that the meltdown was
not affecting Nigeria and that Nigeria enjoyed some form of insulation. I
did not agree. Turbulence at sea or in the sky does not hit everywhere at
the same time but with time every part will take its share; so it is with
economies. Now, back to the United States. When President Obama took
office, the major challenge was to immediately fix the American economy
which was in doldrums. The credit crunch was unbearable. Production had
fallen drastically. So many things were going wrong, like cancer
metastasizing. Tens of thousands of jobs were being wiped out on a daily
basis. The statistics were tumbling in faster than the tick of the clock. The
rallying cry was to put Americans back to jobs. At a personal level, my own
Executive Assistant, an American, then lamented painfully that too many
of her folks and their friends and their friends’ friends and the cousins of
their friends and their neighbours, were out of jobs and still counting. It
was disastrous. The prospects were dismal. Among the series of measures
being adopted at that time, Obama made certain pronouncements too
which I picked, that had to do with America’s energy policy and plans to
reduce their dependency on fossil fuels. Obama planned to commit a
whopping $5 billion every year for the next ten years for research &
development on alternative energy, solar, wind power, electrical cars, etc
and to minimize their dependence on hydrocarbons. Part of the result of
that massive effort is oil shale in the United States today.
Therefore, coming back to my propositions, my prediction was proven
right when in 2014, exactly six years, painfully, horrifyingly and tragically
in sync with my prognostication, the United States for the first time
stopped placing orders for Nigerian crude. It was not a political decision
by America against the Nigerian government or the Nigerian people; it was
an economic decision, a business decision to suit their own overriding
economic priorities and competitive advantages. This is business. No
sentiments.

P a g e | 10 Need for Economic War Roomand Offensive Strategy - Dr. Prince-Abbi’s interview with Daily Times Nigeria
And look at it: When as a trader your customer who buys almost 60 per
cent of the total amount of your goods that you take to market, on which
90 per cent of your survival depends, now stops placing orders because he
has finally succeeded in getting an alternative to your products, you know
that you are in big trouble.
In any case, you shouldn’t be forgiven for not knowing this ahead of time
in order to frantically make adequate preparations - proactively. It was
Napoleon Bonaparte who said he could forgive a general for being
defeated in battle but he wouldn’t forgive him for being surprised.
Is that why you are proposing your concept of an Economic War Room to
strategize continuously on current and future troubles to our economy?
To once and for all position solidly the Nigerian economy and to set it on a
strong flight path, there is need for an ongoing Economic War Room
where Offensive Strategy is deployed. It is an Economic War Room kind of
operation that can, ahead of time, enable such frantic, but structured and
strategic preparations to re-invent the moorings of the Nigerian economy.
There is indeed need to completely deconstruct the Nigerian economy.
And the approach must be breath-taking and ruthless. It cannot be the
Normal Game; it has to be Offensive Strategy. The Nigerian economy
cannot fly or run if the structure of its essential anatomy is configured on
crawling or sitting. My friend, in all essentials and by all fundamental
considerations, we have an economy that is sitting most of the time and
crawling some of the time. It cannot run or fly. Its prevailing DNA does
not have such features. But we can carry out an exercise in bio-
reengineering the economy, we can now start to infuse those essential
features through new structures and paradigms. This is where the
Economic War Room comes in.
If I remember right, in the last quarter of that year 2014, you commented
strongly on the oil price slump and that Nigeria should frantically move
into production, production, production?
In the later part of that year (2014) when News Agency of Nigeria (NAN)
had conversation with me on the subject of the crude oil price fall and the
shivers it was sending down the spine of Nigeria and other resource-
dependent economies, I stated emphatically that it was not over yet. I said
the effect would be more serious than was being seen even then. The storm
that had built up for a long time was only then starting to release droplets.
And the droplets were already causing a stampede. I said the price would
fall further, that our foreign reserve would be hit badly and that the
Nigerian economy would take a battering and start wobbling in ways never
seen before. Hence contrary to all optimistic expectations and projections,
the then Minister for Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was compelled to make repeated adjustments to
the 2015 budget crude oil benchmark on which it was predicated, making
re-presentations of the budget to the National Assembly as a result of the
changing crude oil benchmark estimate. She had to make those vital
“The Nigerian economy
cannot fly or run if the
structure of its essential
anatomy is configured on
crawling or sitting. In all
essentials and by all
fundamental
considerations, we have
an economy that is sitting
most of the time and
crawling some of the
time. It cannot run or fly.
Its prevailing DNA does
not have such features.
But we can carry out an
exercise in bio-
reengineering the
economy, we can now
start to infuse those
essential features
through new structures
and paradigms. This is
where the Economic War
Room comes in.”

adjustments on the budget document and re-presented to the National
Assembly for about two times or so, if I remember right. That is the extent
to which it caught Nigeria napping. The problem had kicked in. And the
impact of it is what is being manifest at this point.
How did you feel that time, considering your six year old strategic
economic predictions and the non-adoption of your proposed actions
which dated eight to nine years back?
Sad. Sorrowful. Grieved. Because I saw it coming and the pain is that I
knew it could have been averted. Honestly, I started feeling like Cassandra
would have felt when the Greek war ships first landed at the shores of Troy
to wage war against the city state. She had warned her people that over
Helen, the Greeks would come attacking and that Troy would eventually
be sacked and destroyed.
You see, in any strategic situation, the more time you wasted in taking a
strategically advisable course of action, the less luxury of time you have as
time goes by. If you had ten million dollars and you wasted six million of
it, you can’t expect to still have the ten million dollars to carry out a ten
million dollars task. With the passage of just a little time you would
require fifty million to carry out the ten million dollar task that was not
carried out. Time is actually more unforgiving than money. As a country,
Nigeria wastes time a lot in taking proper courses of action. It’s a hundred-
year old sickness. By all means, this is one mistake the Buhari
Administration shouldn’t be guilty of. Also, the more time you have wasted
in quickly taking a desirable course of action the more desperate you
would find yourself trying to salvage a bad situation. Because a bad
situation must go worse if nothing is done – in time - to consciously
reverse it. Metaphorically speaking, it is Entropy at work.
Entropy, the second law of Thermodynamics states that energy in any
state tends to dissipate, or waste away. It tends to assume a less useful
state over time except something is done to keep it at that same level of
utility. In layman’s terms, you need some other form of energy to keep a
given energy form in its existing state. Everything in nature tends to wear
down You are older today than you were ten years ago - because of
entropy. Your muscles and your bones get weaker as you grow older over
time – because of entropy. Osteoporosis, loss of bone mass occurs -
because of entropy. Most footballers must retire in their early thirties -
because of entropy. Usain Bolt, the fastest man on earth now, knows that
he has to retire soon because he is most unlikely to shine so well in
another Olympics. It is because of entropy. Entropy rules everything in
nature. Bill Gates said a little knowledge of physics will help one
understand a whole lot of things. He’s right.
Now, this is where I’m headed. The understanding of this phenomenon
can be transposed into the social realm of human activities. In the human
system such as socioeconomics, development or the tinkering to grow
national economies, you can apply a form of energy to prevent or reverse
entropy. That form of energy consists of the superstructures you put in
place to prevent a current or future wear-down of the economy.

Rather than allowing a wear-down you are able to achieve a robust build-
up. This doesn’t come by accident. It is a very conscious exercise. This is
where simulations and strategic actions come in to checkmate entropy
itself or to reverse-engineer it sustainably. This is why an Economic War
Room which does things completely differently must become a new way of
thinking and a new way of working to deconstruct and re-invent the
Nigerian economy to drive the country to real greatness.
Output is birthed by input. You cannot be making the same kind of input
both in content and in style and expect a different output. Our planning
horizon is desperately limited. In fact, we hardly ever have one that we
work at vigorously and consistently. Most documents on national plans
end up as they are, on paper. In any case, if you have followed my trend of
thought in this discussion, it would be clear to you that even if we work on
them, those plans are based on the Normal Game. There is no strategy
undergirding them to insulate the Nigerian economy from shocks and
turbulence. Meanwhile shocks and turbulence are a constant in the life of
national economies. They occur in cyclical fashion. The Nigerian economy
has no anti-shock or anti-turbulence structure. The Nigerian economy is
like an aeroplane flying with only one engine, and an unserviced one at
that. Once there is a challenge mid-air, there it goes crashing. It is
elementary-level strategic thinking to foresee and tackle head-on emerging
economic challenges with fitting solutions before they fester into a current
problem.
For me, this is a great moment of opportunity for Nigeria. Nigeria’s
greatness is a sure possibility. I am incurably optimistic about Nigeria.
Through simulations, scenario planning, and economy bolstering
measures and strategic actions predicated on accelerated mode, President
Buhari’s government can do tremendously well. I encourage him. And he
shouldn’t play the Normal Game. The Normal Game does not deliver
quantum. It doesn’t break existing frontiers. In the current situation of
the Nigerian economy within the context of an increasingly challenged and
gloomy global economy, Nigeria needs Offensive Strategy which is the only
guarantee for quantum leaps. Nigeria’s current and future challenges are
too exacting for the President to play the Normal Game. He must adopt
Offensive Strategy. Let the President set up an Economic War Room
immediately. It doesn’t require legislative imprimatur to be set up, though
some vital decisions would have legislative stamp. And the legislators
should know that this is their primary assignment, not the politics. It is a
war situation for Nigeria. Now take note, President Buhari doesn’t have to
be an economist to have the Economic War Room up and running, neither
does Vice President Osinbajo, both of whom of course are not economists.
They don’t have to be. As a leader you don’t have to be a sector expert to
achieve great heights in a given sector. Just as John F. Kennedy didn’t
have to be an astronaut or a rocket scientist to advance in 1961 the
national goal of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to
the Earth in that very decade. And within the same decade the Apollo II
landing on the moon in July 1969 took place. The sign the astronauts left
on the moon says, "Here men from the planet Earth first set foot upon the
moon July 1969, A.D. We came in peace for all mankind."
“President Buhari
doesn’t have to be an
economist to have the
Economic War Room
up and running,
neither does Vice
President Osinbajo,
both of whom of course
are not economists.
They don’t have to be.
As a leader you don’t
have to be a sector
expert to achieve great
heights in a given
sector. Just as John F.
Kennedy didn’t have to
be an astronaut or a
rocket scientist to
advance in 1961 the
national goal of landing
a man on the Moon
and returning him
safely to the Earth in
that very decade. ”

It was the crystallization of the strategic intent articulated, initiated and
executively enabled by a leader. FDR was not an astronaut or a scientist,
neither was President Richard Nixon in whose time the feat was finally
achieved. On that day countless millions of people watched as the
American astronauts walked on the moon. President Nixon later that
evening scribbled these beautiful words in his diary “the President held an
interplanetary conversation with Apollo 11 astronauts Neil
Armstrong and Edwin Aldrin on the Moon.” We can see how a national
goal advanced in 1961 by President John F. Kennedy got attained.
Oh that’s an interesting bit of historical inspiration!
Oh yes. My point is that one who is not an expert in a sector can actually
make frontier-stretching strides in that sector simply by taking the right
decision and providing the executive power to back it. So President
Muhammadu Buhari or Vice President Osinbajo do not have to be
economists to have the Economic War Room operational. In fact, the
composition of the team in the Economic War Room will be decidedly
multidisciplinary. No single discipline, say Economics, should necessarily
dominate. Definitely one trait and characteristic that is common to every
single member in the team is that of the power of audacious imagination.
With zero natural resources, Singapore represents a great story of how a
third world economy that was at the same level with Nigeria became a first
world one. Lee Kuan Yew, the father and maker of modern Singapore did
not study economics, it was law. The important thing is come to grips with
the fundamental issues, dream big and bold, set up an unrelenting
structure, use the structure to deploy the best strategies, with unceasing
vigour and focus pursue the actualization of those strategies like James
Bond went after Dr. No.
With the Economic War Room operating, Offensive Strategy on the
Nigerian Economy becomes institutionalized. In strategic actions deriving
from the scenario planning, you are able to tightly control and determine
current and future realities. Essentially, you must see tomorrow today or
you should have seen today yesterday and design today, the image you
want it to take tomorrow. Nothing should take you by surprise because you
are always on top of your game. Offensive Strategy keeps you on top of the
game and nothing comes up that you have not already foreseen and
prepared for. As you can see, the recession set in and everybody started
panicking, looking for ways out of the recession, as if recession came as a
bolt from the blues, when indeed it could have been prevented. The
indicators have been there based on the existing sickly economic base. And
there was no global environmental scanning to pick the emerging threats
to the Nigerian economy until they set in. As I said, it was eight to nine
years ago I started seeing it coming. In Nigeria’s economic management,
strategy is not applied, what is done is address things as they come. It’s an
old sickness with Nigeria. Rather, you must address things so they don’t
come. Why can’t this be part of our style? What is needed is swift
strategic actions on an on-going basis. You design and take specific
“Singapore represents
a great story of how a
third world economy
became a first world
one. Lee Quan Yew, the
father and maker of
modern Singapore did
not study economics, it
was law. The important
thing is understand the
fundamental issues,
dream big and bold, set
up an unrelenting
structure, use the
structure to deploy the
best strategies, with
unceasing vigour and
focus pursue the
actualization of those
strategies like James
Bond went after Dr.
No.”

actions, pump tremendous amount of resources into those actions no
matter what they cost, and steer the economy towards a clearly defined
and time-bound destination. Nigeria has not done this kind of thing yet.
Therefore everything comes up and shocks the system.
The Economic War Room, up and running with military fashion naturally
insulates the economy and makes it invulnerable. It puts the Nigerian
economy to be in full throttle mode to experience quantum leaps.
Your metaphors are very striking and your ideas refreshingly new. And
broadly speaking, what is your general Outlook?
In spite of it all, this is my Outlook: I remain bullish and gung-ho about
the Nigerian economy. Irrespective of the economic recession I remain
positive that things will get better soon. But my assertion is that the focus
shouldn’t be just to steer the economy out of the recession or even to do
the normal things thereafter. No. The focus should be to pump up the
economy, like you do your tires for a long journey, so that the Nigerian
economy can actually start on a race. The focus should not be to achieve
slow incremental pace. There is no time for that, neither is it creative
enough. Also, such a pace is not immune to shocks and turbulence.
The focus should be to achieve traction and Quantum Leaps. This mode is
created; it is crafted; it is perpetually and intensively tinkered at to
happen. This is where the future lies for Nigeria’s greatness. And the
undergirding structure to do this deliberate creation and crafting and
tinkering is what the Economic War Room is about. Generally, I am
ABSOLUTELY convinced that: 1. The dynamic growth that China
experienced is replicable by Nigeria in its own way. 2. Nigeria could have
been another China in robust growth and can still be, starting from this
process I am advancing. 3. As a developing economy, Nigeria has more
possibility to experience robust economic growth than the advanced
economies and even the second-tier advanced economies. I call them all
adult economies; they surely have opportunity for growth but growth
can only be in small quanta, but the Nigerian economy is still a baby
economy. I say this with positive bias. Feed her well, she will grow fast.
4. Offensive Strategy is both the infant formula as well as the meat and
bones to give Nigeria a robust and resilient growth and enable her achieve
real competitiveness. 5. With the Economic War Room working and
pressing all the levers and all the stops, the Nigerian economy can roar
and blast on vigorously like an unstoppable machine.
More specifically, let me say that the Nigerian economy will get better
soon. That is true. But it can even do a lot better especially if the Federal
Government takes action on matters faster, at least ten times faster on
anything. As I stated earlier, time is very unforgiving. Everything the
Federal Government must do, it must do it ten times faster. I call this the
10x imperative. If a matter is being considered, a decision is to be made,
an action is being taken, the question should be “how can we do it ten

times faster?” From now, President Buhari must put on sprinting shoes,
figuratively speaking. It’s war out there and the smell of gunpowder is in
the air. Did I say sprinting shoes? I’m wrong. At the point where Nigeria is,
sprinting is not enough. Mr. President needs eagle wings to fly. By the way,
Nigeria’s symbol is the eagle. This is my most important advice to
President Muhammadu Buhari. Run fast, and fly if you can, Sir.
Faster actions, faster decision-making, faster response system is an
attribute that characterize the best systems corporate or governmental
across the world. Faster actions, faster decision-making, faster response
system must be integrated into the workings of government now than
later. There is so much to be done with Nigeria, for Nigeria, by Nigeria,
and time is so merciless scarce and unfriendly. The worst thing to happen
in a time of economic challenge is to allow distress to drag on. Like Rome
of old, the Barbarians are at the city gate and there is no time to waste.
Battle is here.
Now, there are reservations expressed here and there that Nigeria’s large
population increases the complexity and the difficulty to turn around the
economy and put it on a strong growth path. This is patently wrong.
Nigeria massive population of 185 million is a plus not a minus when we
come to the real issues and essentials of what makes an economy. An extra
large population is not a deterrent but indeed a trigger to economic
growth, in fact exponential growth, once the fundamentals have been got
right. Ask China. The moment China got it right through the successful
experimentation of the free market economy, economic growth assumed a
propulsion which beat all expectations. This latent force of Nigeria’s
robust size is what the Economic War Room and Offensive Strategy will
leverage and take maximum advantage of. Nigeria’s large population is
actually a force multiplier for economic growth. It should not been seen as
an intimidating impediment. That is the conventional and erroneous mode
of thinking, under the Normal Game. We shall come to this some other
day.
In conclusion, even though the Nigerian economy is in recession, which is
a technical term to mean shrinking rather than growing, I see it reversing
very soon to growth. But making that reversal to happen and then getting
the economy back into predictable rate of growth is not enough. That is the
Normal Game. We need to tinker this growth and beat all existing
predictions by the IMF, the World Bank and other international financial
institutions all of whom have confidently predicted slow growth and even
slow pick up of growth for Nigeria. I dare say that these forecasts, smart as
they are, are of course, based on the Normal Game the characteristics of
which I explained at the beginning of this discussion. But if the Economic
War Room to drive Offensive Strategy is adopted, the Nigerian economy
would shatter the ceiling and break every single form of predictions of
slow growth, and assert itself as the roaring growth dynamo that will take
the world by surprise, and put on its head every single negative
classification in which Nigeria has been cast hitherto. Take this from me.
********** End of interview
“Nigeria’s large
population is actually
a force multiplier for
economic growth; it
should not been seen
as an intimidating
impediment. That is
the conventional and
erroneous mode of
thinking, under the
Normal Game.”

Dr. Glenn Prince-Abbi speaks on Economic War Room and Offensive Strategy - interview with Daily Times Nigeria

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Dr. Glenn Prince-Abbi speaks on Economic War Room and Offensive Strategy - interview with Daily Times Nigeria