analysis of latest consumer expenditure survey India

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1
01 April 2024
India Economy
Does the CES data confirm the sustenance of Engel’s law?
INDIA ECONOMY
Dhananjay Sinha
dhananjaysinha@systematixgroup.in
(+9122 6704 8095)
Purvi Mundhra
purvimundhra@systematixgroup.in
(+9122 6704 8078)
Deeksha Bhardwaj
deekshabhardwaj@systematixgroup.in
(+91-22-6704 8017)
The latest consumer expenditure survey shows a considerable decline in the
proportion of food consumption, particularly cereals. Concomitantly there has also
been a rise in spending on non-essential items. This has been interpreted by many
as a progression towards affluence. But is it really the case? We analyze this below
The hypothesis of consumption progression: The latest Household Consumption
Expenditure Survey (HCES, 2023), after a gap of 11 years, has shown that the
proportion of monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) spent on food, particularly on
cereals, has seen a sharp fall; 46.4% vs 52.9% earlier in rural areas and 39.2% vs 42.6%
earlier in urban areas. Taken along with the rising proportion of spending on
conveyance and other non-food items, the decline in spending percentage on food is
seen by many as the progression of Engel’s law and Bennet’s Law.
These laws imply that as households experience higher incomes, they gain better
access to convenience, with fewer calorie requirements, and can afford alternate food
items. Thus, the percentage of income spent on food decreases as money spent on
other goods or services rises. The summary tables from HCES have convinced many
about this confirmation.
It is also well known that as real incomes rise with gains in economic opportunities,
workers from rural areas would migrate to urban, and use higher levels of conveyance.
This has been one of the reasons for the structural decline in calorie and cereal
consumption since the late 1980s. Thus, consumption of basic food, particularly
cereals, is correlated with the quality of work people do. Rising dependence on manual
work, typically in rural/agriculture or construction sectors, would conversely increase
the consumption of basic food as the calorie requirement would rise.
We test this hypothesis by dissecting item-wise spending contained in the CES.
So, what does the CES data reveal?
Over the 11 years, CES indicates a sharp deceleration in spending on food from 12.2%
(2-year CAGR, 2011-12) to 7.9%, mainly on cereals, pulses, and sugar, particularly, in
rural areas. For urban areas, it decelerated from 12.8% (2-year CAGR, 2011-12) to 7.7%
in 2022-23.
In the non-food segment, conveyance has seen a substantial rise. Components
including toilet articles, household consumables, and durables also experience higher
growth. On the face of it, these changes in CES spending pattern indicate a progression
typically associated with rising real incomes.

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The smell test for India’s consumption progression
The income test: The first test should be to see if household incomes have risen.
Derivation of household income at the country-wide level from the decelerating
private consumption and decline in savings indicate that there has been a sharp
deceleration in aggregate real household income growth; it slowed to 3.0% 4-year
CAGR in FY23 i.e less than 2.0% in per capita terms, from the peak of 9.0% in FY10
(based on 2004-05 GDP series).
Looking at the income data from the Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) from 2017-18
to 2022-23 we find that the nominal average income for regular, casual, and self-
employed workers grew modestly at 2.2% (5-year CAGR) or -3% in real terms.
Contraction in real earnings/worker forced higher working persons per household,
rising by 3.4%. Thus, household income rose by just 5.7%, i.e. barely matching the rise
in the cost of living.
These calculations, representing nearly 90% of the working population do not support
the basic condition of the Engle Law. Within the remaining top 10%, represented by
income taxpayers, for the salaried workers filing income tax returns, the total assessed
salary for workers earning less than Rs 9.5 lacs has declined. For ITR filers above Rs
9.5lac, the total salary has increased significantly. Hence, the premiumization story has
been driven by rising income inequality.
Are HH investing in their future? The second test would look at spending on education
and medical, which should rise with rising income. Here, CES data shows a marked
decline in spending on education, clothing, footwear, and medical (non-
hospitalization) again reflecting income constraints rather than bounties. The decline
in the share of spending on education needs to be closely watched as it could impact
long-term labor productivity.
Cereal consumption test:
Third, by converting the ratios of spending into nominal values we find that spending
on cereals grew by 1.7% in rural areas and 2.7% in urban areas (11-year CAGR). Using
the CPI inflation, this translates into a contraction of 3.5% and 2.5% in real terms in
rural and urban areas respectively. This looks out of sync.
India’s cereal production grew by 2.1% annually or around 1% on a per capita basis.
Also, the real spending on bread, cereals & pulses as per private final consumption
expenditure (PFCE, GDP) over the decade has been higher at 3.8%.
Hence, if the real consumption, as per the survey, contracted by 2.5-3.5% there would
be an oversupply situation and a crash in cereal prices. More so recently, the supply
impulses improved over the last 5 years due to stepped-up irrigation, higher reservoir
capacity, record production, and export ban along with a significant rundown in
government buffer under the post-COVID free food distribution program. But
contrastingly, cereal inflation remained at 5.2% (11-year CAGR) and 6.1% (5-year
CAGR).
If we recast nominal HCES MPCE on cereals and pulses based on nominal PFCE per-
capita spending growth at 7.4%, the total spending on this sub-group would have been
INR 430/month, i.e. higher at 11% of rural MPCE instead of 6.9% stated in the HCES
table.

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Affluence test for rising spending on conveyance
Fourth, the proportion of expenditure on conveyance has increased substantially since
2011-12, in both the rural (15.2%, 11-year CAGR) and the urban areas (11.3%).
However, such a substantial surge in spending does not match with the a) contraction
in passenger kilometers travelled in railways in the last 10 years, and b) collective
stagnation in the sales of two-wheelers, buses, and passenger cars vs 10 years ago,
notwithstanding the post covid recovery.
Combining these components, representing the conveyance mode for 99% of the
population, the average growth is a meager 0.8%. Hence, the surge in expenditure
towards conveyance is because of the higher cost, than rising affluence. In particular,
the passenger kilometers travelled by railways at 984 bn have contracted by 0.5% per
annum for the decade ending FY24, while the passenger revenue per km surged by
7.7% per annum.
Overall, this deceleration in the consumption in real conveyance signifies rising
ruralisation, and a declining incentive for the household to move towards the urban
areas amid reduced income opportunities. In fact, the PLFS data shows that the
population dependent on agriculture (and rural areas) has risen to 45.8% in 2022-23
from 42.2% in 2017-18 (PLFS 2022-23).
Tangible evidence of Engels’ law missing
Putting together the falling real household income, the aberration in the reported
spending on cereals and food in the CES tables, the decline in real per capita usage of
conveyance, and rising ruralisation should ideally translate into higher per capita
calorie intake, thereby leading to higher cereal consumption. This is paradoxical to
Engels’ law progression.
There appears to be an inadequate representation of the impact of government
subsidies, free food distribution, and other dole-outs, in the imputed MPCE, especially
in the rural areas. The fiscal support may have created space for spending on non-food
items produced by consumer companies. But it is likely to have remained concentrated
on basic products. The premiumization story is thus pivoted on the more affluent
income earners outside of the surveyed universe.
Exhibit 1: Production & supply of cereals (wheat & rice) has been
abundant; lower production in FY24 should not create shortage
Source: CMIE, Systematix Research; Supply=production - exports - procurements for
PDS+ offtake under PDS
Exhibit 2: Rising supply relative to LT trend (5-year MA) and
elevated cereal inflation are inconsistent
Source: CMIE, Systematix Research; (supply/production%-100); Supply=production -
exports - procurements for PDS+ offtake under PDS
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
FY91
FY93
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
Domestic supply and production of foodgrains (mn tons)
Estimated supply Total cereal production
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
FY91
FY93
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
Supply/LT pre-covid supply trend (%) WPI cereals (%, rhs)

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Exhibit 3: Rising offtake/procurement (highest in 18 yrs) & tapering
exports imply govt effort to cool cereal inflation
Source: CMIE, Systematix Research;
Exhibit 4: Recent rise in exports of cereal guided by higher global
prices but that has not influenced domestic inflation
Source: CMIE, Systematix Research;
Exhibit 5: Five-year average growth in worker earnings at 2.2%,
unmatching the rise in cost of living
Source: CBDT, Systematix Research
Exhibit 6: Overall worker earnings contracted in real terms
(Regular, casual & self-employed)
Source: CBDT, Systematix Research
Exhibit 7: Household income has been decelerating since FY23 (4-
year CAGR), mostly lower than consumption growth
Source: CSO, Systematix Research; 2004-05 series prior to 2011-12
Exhibit 8: Household real income has also decelerated to a 4-year
CAGR of 3.1% (FY23e)
Source: CSO, Systematix Research; 2004-05 series prior to 2011-12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
FY91
FY93
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
Offtake/Procurement Exports/total production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
FY91
FY93
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
WPI cereals (%, rhs) Exports/total production
9314
14932
12082
11314
19574
13467
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Male
Female
Persons
Male
Female
Persons
Male
Female
Persons
R R R U U U U+R U+R U+R
Estimated monthly earning (INR, 4 qr avg 1QFY24)
2QFY18-1QFY19 2QFY23-1QFY24
3.2
-1.2
2.2
0.3
2.9
(1.0)
(0.0)
(1.8)
(0.4)
(1.8)
(6.2)
(2.8)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Male Female Persons Male Female Persons Male Female Persons
R R R U U U U+R U+R U+R
Earnings : Regular, Casual & Self employed (5 year CAGR, %)
Total Earnings Real earnings
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
FY57
FY59
FY61
FY63
FY65
FY67
FY69
FY71
FY73
FY75
FY77
FY79
FY81
FY83
FY85
FY87
FY89
FY91
FY93
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
Income, Nominal Nominal PFCE
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
FY57
FY59
FY61
FY63
FY65
FY67
FY69
FY71
FY73
FY75
FY77
FY79
FY81
FY83
FY85
FY87
FY89
FY91
FY93
FY95
FY97
FY99
FY01
FY03
FY05
FY07
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY15
FY17
FY19
FY21
FY23
Real income, HH (estimated*) Real PFCE

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Exhibit 9: Railway passenger movement declined since FY18,
mainly AC (flat since FY14), despite large govt capex
Source: GoI, Systematix Research
Exhibit 10: High railway capex appears to be funded both through
higher fiscal support and hikes in railway fares
Source: GoI, Systematix Research
Exhibit 11: Sharper decline in non-AC (78% weight) railway
travels since FY19 and steep rise in AC (22%) travels
Source: GoI, Systematix Research
Exhibit 12: Despite the premiumization surge, past 10-year
average growth in sales of PVs at 5.3% is much lower
Source: GoI, Systematix Research
Exhibit 13: Two-wheeler sales still lower than pre-covid & buses
barely above the previous peak in FY12
Source: GoI, Systematix Research
Exhibit 14: Sharp deceleration in PV sales over past 10 years,
along with a contraction in entry-level and surging premium
Source: GoI, Systematix Research
0
2,00,000
4,00,000
6,00,000
8,00,000
10,00,000
12,00,000
FY94
FY96
FY98
FY00
FY02
FY04
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY20
FY22
FY24
Passenger KM, Non-suburban
AC passengers Non-AC
6.2
7.9
(0.5) (0.0)
4.0
2.5
7.7
7.0
10.5 10.6
7.2 6.9
FY94-FY04 FY04-FY14 FY14-FY24 FY14-FY19
Railway passengers, CAGR (%)
Passenger KM Passenger revenue/KM (Rs) Passenger revenue (Rs)
6.2
7.9
(1.0) (0.5)
(2.7)
12.4
10.5
14.1
10.7
7.3
6.3
8.1
(3.5)
(2.0)
(0.4)
FY94-FY04 FY04-FY14 FY19-FY24 FY14-FY24 FY14-FY19
Railway passengers, CAGR (%)
Passenger KM Passenger KM AC Passenger KM Non AC
14.3
10.7
5.3
4.4
14.0
9.9
(1.4)
(6.9)
12.4
(2.5)
(7.4)
12
14
18
23
FY94-FY04 FY04-FY14 FY14-FY24 FY19-FY24
Domestic sales of passenger vehicles (numbers, CAGR %)
All PVs Vans MUVs
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY88
FY90
FY92
FY94
FY96
FY98
FY00
FY02
FY04
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY20
FY22
FY24
Buses, sales ('000) 2W Domestic sales ('000, rhs)
% CAGR 2 W Buses
FY94-FY04 12.1 1.7
FY04-FY14 10.7 5.0
FY14-FY24 1.9 3.2
FY19-FY24 (3.3) 5.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
FY94
FY96
FY98
FY00
FY02
FY04
FY06
FY08
FY10
FY12
FY14
FY16
FY18
FY20
FY22
FY24
Domestic sales of passenger vehicles ('000)
Passenger cars+vans MUVs
CAGR % All PVs Vans MUVs
FY94-FY04 14.3 14.0 11.6
FY04-FY14 10.7 9.9 12.4 13.6
FY14-FY24 5.3 (1.4) (2.5) 17.7
FY19-FY24 4.4 (6.9) (7.4) 23.3

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Exhibit 15: Bifurcation of expenditure in the rural areas
Rural India (Rs)
1999-
00
2004-
05
2009-
10
2011-
12
2022-
23
Nominal
Expenditure
Inflation
^
Real
Expenditure
Production
*
11-year CAGR
Cereal 108 101 145 153 184 1.7 5.2 -3.5 2.1
Cereal substitutes 0 0 1 1 1 -1.2
Gram 1 1 1 2 9 14.7
Pulses and pulse products* 19 17 34 39 67 4.9 5.5 -0.6 5.0
Sugar & salt 13 14 25 26 35 2.7 2.5 0.2 1.7
Milk and milk products 43 47 81 115 314 9.6 5.8 3.8 5.5
Vegetables 30 34 87 95 203 7.2 6.0 1.2 3.2
Fruits (fresh) 7 8 20 32 96 10.4 5.3 5.1 3.4
Fruits (dry) 1 2 5 8 44 16.4
Egg, fish & meat 16 19 50 68 185 9.5 6.2 3.3
Edible oil 18 26 39 53 135 8.8 7.1 1.7 1.9
Spices 13 13 35 50 112 7.6 6.4 1.2 5.2
Beverages,
Processed food etc.
20 25 78 113 363 11.2 6.0 5.2
All Food 289 308 601 756 1750 7.9 6.0 1.9
Pan, tobacco & intoxicants 14 15 31 46 143 10.9 7.0 3.9
Fuel and light 37 57 85 114 251 7.4 6.1 1.3
Toilet articles & other household
consumables
23 28 42 57 193 11.7 4.5 7.2 -0.2
Education 9 18 38 50 125 8.7 5.7 3.0
Medical (hospitalization) 7 9 17 31 89 10.1 6.0 4.1
Medical (non-hospitalization) 23 27 40 64 180 9.8 6.0 3.8
Conveyance 14 21 36 60 285 15.2 5.0 10.2 0.8
Consumer services
excluding conveyance
14 21 44 57 192 11.6
Entertainment 2 3 8 14 41 10.2 5.0 5.2
Rent 2 3 5 6 29 14.8 5.0 9.8
Other taxes & cesses 1 1 2 4 5 2.9
Clothing & bedding 33 39 56 86 198 7.9 6.3 1.6
Footwear 5 6 10 15 32 7.5 6.0 1.5
Durable goods 13 23 39 69 260 12.8 3.0 9.8 1.0
Non-food: total 197 271 453 674 2023 10.5 5.8 4.7
Total Expenditure 486 579 1054 1430 3773 9.2 5.9 3.3
Source: HCES, Systematix Research; Absolute category-wise spending derived using reported data on total expenditure and category-wise proportion ; ^ from CPI
components, * IIP and industry sources

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Exhibit 16: Expenditure bifurcation in the urban areas
Urban India (INR)
1999-
00
2004-
05
2009-
10
2011-
12
2022-
23
Nominal
Expenditure
Inflation
^
Real
Expenditure
Production
*
11-year CAGR
Cereal 106 106 161 174 234 2.7 5.2 -2.5 2.1
Cereal substitutes 0 1 1 1 1 -0.2
Gram 1 1 2 3 12 13.5
Pulses and pulse products* 24 23 47 51 78 4.0 5.5 -1.5 5.0
Sugar & salt 15 17 30 30 39 2.3 2.5 -0.2 1.7
Milk and milk products 74 83 137 184 466 8.8 5.8 3.0 5.5
Vegetables 44 47 112 122 245 6.6 6.0 0.6 3.2
Fruits (fresh) 17 19 50 69 161 8.0 5.3 2.7 3.4
Fruits (dry) 4 5 12 21 85 13.7
Egg, fish & meat 27 29 72 96 231 8.3 6.2 2.1
Edible oil 27 36 53 70 153 7.4 7.1 0.3 1.9
Spices 18 16 44 64 138 7.3 6.4 0.9 5.2
Beverages,
etc. Processed food
54 65 159 236 687 10.2 6.0 4.2
Food: total 411 448 881 1121 2530 7.7 6.0 1.7
Pan, tobacco & intoxicants 16 17 30 42 157 12.6 7.0 5.6
Fuel and light 66 105 138 176 404 7.9 6.1 1.8
Toilet articles & other household
consumables
47 51 77 102 322 11.0 4.5 6.5 -0.2
Education 37 74 161 181 373 6.8 5.7 1.1
Medical (hospitalization) 12 16 36 52 123 8.3 6.0 2.3
Medical (non-hospitalization) 31 42 63 94 258 9.6 6.0 3.6
Conveyance 47 69 112 171 555 11.3 5.0 6.3 0.8
Consumer services
excluding conveyance
40 74 124 147 382 9.1
Entertainment 10 20 32 42 102 8.3 5.0 3.3
Rent 38 59 115 164 424 9.0 5.0 4.0
Other taxes & cesses 6 9 16 22 16 -3.0
Clothing & bedding 52 62 96 141 300 7.1 6.3 0.8
Footwear 10 11 19 26 50 6.0 6.0 0.0
Durable goods 31 49 86 147 463 11.0 3.0 8.0 1.0
Non-food: total 444 657 1103 1509 3929 9.1 5.8 3.3
Total Expenditure 855 1105 1984 2630 6459 8.5 5.9 2.6
Source: HCES, Systematix Research; Absolute category-wise spending derived using reported data on total expenditure and category-wise proportion ; ^ from CPI
components, * IIP and industry sources

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Exhibit 17: Percentage composition of MPCE since 2011-12 vs 2022-23, how it changed over the past 11 years
% share 2022-23 2022-23 Change Change
Item group Rural Urban Rural Urban
Cereal 4.9 3.6 -5.8 -3.0
Cereal substitutes 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gram 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Pulses and pulse products* 1.8 1.2 -1.0 -0.7
Sugar & salt 0.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.6
Milk and milk products 8.3 7.2 0.3 0.2
Vegetables 5.4 3.8 -1.2 -0.8
Fruits (fresh) 2.5 2.5 0.3 -0.1
Fruits (dry) 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.5
Egg, fish & meat 4.9 3.6 0.1 -0.1
Edible oil 3.6 2.4 -0.2 -0.3
Spices 3.0 2.1 -0.5 -0.3
Beverages,
etc. Processed food
9.6 10.6 1.7 1.7
Food: total 46.4 39.2 -6.5 -3.5
Pan, tobacco & intoxicants 3.8 2.4 0.6 0.8
Fuel and light 6.7 6.3 -1.3 -0.4
Toilet articles & other household consumables 5.1 5.0 1.1 1.1
Education 3.3 5.8 -0.2 -1.1
Medical (hospitalization) 2.4 1.9 0.2 -0.1
Medical (non-hospitalization) 4.8 4.0 0.3 0.4
Conveyance 7.6 8.6 3.4 2.1
Consumer services ex conveyance 5.1 5.9 1.1 0.3
Entertainment 1.1 1.6 0.1 0.0
Rent 0.8 6.6 0.3 0.3
Other taxes & cesses 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.6
Clothing & bedding 5.2 4.6 -0.8 -0.7
Footwear 0.9 0.8 -0.2 -0.2
Durable goods 6.9 7.2 2.0 1.6
Non-food: total 53.6 60.8 6.5 3.5
Total expenditure 100.0 100.0
Source: HCES, Systematix Research; Absolute category-wise spending derived using reported data on total expenditure and category-wise proportion ; ^ from CPI
components, * IIP and industry sources

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Krisha Zaveri Consumer Durables, EMS, Building Materials, Small-Mid Caps +91-22-6704 8023 krishazaveri@systematixgroup.in
Mahek Shah Consumer Durables, EMS, Building Materials, Small-Mid Caps +91-22-6704 8040 mahekshah@systematixgroup.in
Nirali Chheda Banking, Insurance +91-22-6704 8019 niralichheda@systematixgroup.in
Pashmi Chheda Banking, Insurance +91-22-6704 8063 pashmichheda@systematixgroup.in
Pratik Oza Midcaps +91-22-6704 8036 pratikoza@systematixgroup.in
Pravin Mule NBFCs & Diversified Financials +91-22-6704 8034 pravinmule@systematixgroup.in
Prathmesh Kamath Oil & Gas, Logistics, Cement, Wagons +91-22-6704 8022 prathmeshkamath@systematixgroup.in
Purvi Mundhra Macro-Strategy +91-22-6704 8078 purvimundhra@systematixgroup.in
Rajesh Mudaliar Consumer Staples & Discretionary +91-22-6704 8084 rajeshmudaliar@systematixgroup.in
Ronak Dhruv NBFCs & Diversified Financials +91-22-6704 8045 ronakdhruv@systematixgroup.in
Shweta Dikshit Metals & Mining +91-22-6704 8042 shwetadikshit@systematixgroup.in
Swati Saboo Midcaps +91-22-6704 8043 swatisaboo@systematixgroup.in
Vivek Mane Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare +91-22-6704 8046 vivekmane@systematixgroup.in
Yogeeta Rathod Midcaps +91-22-6704 8081 yogeetarathod@systematixgroup.in
Equity Sales & Trading
Name Desk-Phone E-mail
Vipul Sanghvi Co Head of Equities & Head of Sales +91-22-6704 8062 vipulsanghvi@systematixgroup.in
Jignesh Desai Sales +91-22-6704 8068 jigneshdesai@systematixgroup.in
Sidharth Agrawal Sales +91-22-6704 8090 sidharthagrawal@systematixgroup.in
Shreya Chaudhary Sales +91-22-6704 8033 shreyachaudhary@systematixgroup.in
Rahul Khandelwal Sales +91-22-6704 8003 rahul@systematixgroup.in
Chintan Shah Sales +91-22-6704 8061 chintanshah@systematixgroup.in
Pawan Sharma Director and Head - Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8067 pawansharma@systematixgroup.in
Mukesh Chaturvedi Vice President and Co Head - Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8074 mukeshchaturvedi@systematixgroup.in
Vinod Bhuwad Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8051 vinodbhuwad@systematixgroup.in
Rashmi Solanki Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8097 rashmisolanki@systematixgroup.in
Karan Damani Sales Trading +91-22-6704 8053 karandamani@systematixgroup.in
Vipul Chheda Dealer +91-22-6704 8087 vipulchheda@systematixgroup.in
Paras Shah Dealer +91-22-6704 8047 parasshah@systematixgroup.in
Rahul Singh Dealer +91-22-6704 8054 rahulsingh@systematixgroup.in
Corporate Access
Mrunal Pawar Vice President & Head Corporate Access +91-22-6704 8088 mrunalpawar@systematixgroup.in
Darsha Hiwrale Associate Corporate Access +91-22-6704 8083 darshahiwrale@systematixgroup.in
Production
Madhu Narayanan Editor +91-22-6704 8071 madhunarayanan@systematixgroup.in
Mrunali Pagdhare Production +91-22-6704 8057 mrunalip@systematixgroup.in
Vijayendra Achrekar Production +91-22-6704 8089 vijayendraachrekar@systematixgroup.in
Operations
Sachin Malusare Vice President +91-22-6704 8055 sachinmalusare@systematixgroup.in
Jignesh Mistry Manager +91-22-6704 8049 jigneshmistry@systematixgroup.in

10. 01 April 2024 India Economy
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 10
DISCLOSURES/APPENDIX
I. ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, Dhananjay Sinha, Purvi Mundhra, Deeksha Bhardwaj; hereby certify that (1) views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my/our personal views about any or all of the
subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report, (2) no part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed in this research report by Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited (SSSIL) or its group/associate companies, (3) reasonable care is taken to achieve and maintain
independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
Disclosure of Interest Statement Update
Analyst holding in the stock No
Served as an officer, director or employee No
II. ISSUER SPECIFIC REGULATORY DISCLOSURES, unless specifically mentioned in point no. 9 below:
1. The research analyst(s), SSSIL, associates or relatives do not have any financial interest in the company(ies) covered in this report.
2. The research analyst(s), SSSIL, associates or relatives collectively do not hold more than 1% of the securities of the company(ies) covered in this report as of the end of the month
immediately preceding the distribution of the research report.
3. The research analyst(s), SSSIL, associates or relatives did not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report.
4. The research analyst, SSSIL and its associates have not received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or any other products or services
from the company(ies) covered in this report in the past twelve months.
5. The research analyst, SSSIL or its associates have not managed or co-managed a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in this report in the previous
twelve months.
6. SSSIL or its associates have not received compensation or other benefits from the company(ies) covered in this report or from any third party in connection with this research
report.
7. The research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the company(ies) covered in this research report.
8. The research analyst and SSSIL have not been engaged in market making activity for the company(ies) covered in this research report.
9. Details of SSSIL, research analyst and its associates pertaining to the companies covered in this research report:
Sr.
No.
Particulars
Yes /
No.
1 Whether compensation was received from the company(ies) covered in the research report in the past 12 months for investment banking transaction by SSSIL. No
2 Whether research analyst, SSSIL or its associates and relatives collectively hold more than 1% of the company(ies) covered in the research report. No
3 Whether compensation has been received by SSSIL or its associates from the company(ies) covered in the research report. No
4
Whether SSSIL or its affiliates have managed or co-managed a private or public offering of securities for the company(ies) covered in the research report in
the previous twelve months.
No
5
Whether research analyst, SSSIL or associates have received compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services or any other
products or services from the company(ies) covered in the research report in the last twelve months.
No
10. There is no material disciplinary action taken by any regulatory authority that impacts the equity research analysis activities.
STOCK RATINGS
BUY (B): The stock's total return is expected to exceed 15% over the next 12 months.
HOLD (H): The stock's total return is expected to be within -15% to +15% over the next 12 months.
SELL (S): The stock's total return is expected to give negative returns of more than 15% over the next 12 months.
NOT RATED (NR): The analyst has no recommendation on the stock under review.
INDUSTRY VIEWS
ATTRACTIVE (AT): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to be attractive over the next 12-18 months.
NEUTRAL (NL): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to neither improve nor deteriorate over the next 12-18 months.
CAUTIOUS (CS): Fundamentals/valuations of the sector are expected to deteriorate over the next 12-18 months.
III. DISCLAIMER
The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based on the information obtained in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. Such information
has not been independently verified and no guaranty, representation of warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy completeness or correctness.
This document is for information purposes only. This report is based on information that we consider reliable; we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and one should exercise
due caution while acting on it. Description of any company(ies) or its/their securities mentioned herein are not complete and this document is not and should not be construed as an offer
or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed and a loss
of original capital may occur. All opinions, projections and estimates constitute the judgment of the author as on the date of the report and these, plus any other information contained

11. 01 April 2024 India Economy
Systematix Research is also available on Bloomberg SSSL <Go>, Thomson & Reuters Systematix Shares and Stocks (India) Limited 11
in the report, are subject to change without notice. Prices and availability of financial instruments are also subject to change without notice. This report is intended for distribution to
institutional investors.
This report is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any
locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or what would subject to SSSIL or
its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this report is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, especially USA, the same
may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United States (to U.S. persons), Canada, or
Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. Any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution
or disclosure of this report including, but not limited to, redistribution by electronic mail, posting of the report on a website or page, and/or providing to a third party a link, is prohibited
by law and will result in prosecution. The information contained in the report is intended solely for the recipient and may not be further distributed by the recipient to any third party.
SSSIL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts, and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies
that the analysts cover. Additionally, SSSIL generally prohibits its analysts and persons reporting to analysts from serving as an officer, director, or advisory board member of any companies
that they cover. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals or affiliates may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that
are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. Our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed
herein. The views expressed in this research report reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues and no part of the compensation of the research
analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The compensation of the analyst who
prepared this document is determined exclusively by SSSIL; however, compensation may relate to the revenues of the Systematix Group as a whole, of which investment banking, sales
and trading are a part. Research analysts and sales persons of SSSIL may provide important inputs to its affiliated company(ies).
Foreign currencies denominated securities, wherever mentioned, are subject to exchange rate fluctuations which could have an adverse effect on their value or price or the income derived
from them. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the values of which are influenced by foreign currencies, effectively assume currency risk. SSSIL, its directors, analysts or
employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on the basis of this report
including but not restricted to fluctuation in the prices of shares and bonds, changes in the currency rates, diminution in the NAVs, reduction in the dividend or income, etc.
SSSIL and its affiliates, officers, directors, and employees subject to the information given in the disclosures may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell, the
securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation (financial interest)
or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential material
conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. The views expressed are those of the analyst and the company may or may not subscribe
to the views expressed therein.
SSSIL, its affiliates and any third party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness,
merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall SSSIL, any of its affiliates or any third
party involved in, or related to, computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. The company accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third
parties. The report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, websites. Except to the extent to which the report refers to website material of the company, the company has
not reviewed the linked site. Accessing such website or following such link through the report or the website of the company shall be at your own risk and the company shall have no
liability arising out of, or in connection with, any such referenced website.
SSSIL will not be liable for any delay or any other interruption which may occur in presenting the data due to any technical glitch to present the data. In no event shall SSSIL be liable for
any damages, including without limitation, direct or indirect, special, incidental, or consequential damages, losses or expenses arising in connection with the data presented by SSSIL
through this presentation.
SSSIL or any of its other group companies or associates will not be responsible for any decisions taken on the basis of this report. Investors are advised to consult their investment and
tax consultants before taking any investment decisions based on this report.
Registration granted by SEBI to SSSIL and certification from NISM to the analyst in no way guarantee performance of SSSIL or to provide any assurance of returns to investors.
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