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    1
Who is this dude and can we trust him – hmmm




                                               2
The first disruptor.




2012/08/23
             Source – Amazon.com/Jeff Jarvis. http://amzn.to/PzzqcL (Recommended)
                                                                            3
                                                                             3
• Steve Jobs of the 1500’s - one of the earliest media
  entrepreneurs

• Took an existing market/process and disrupted entirely

• Made money (and BTW lost money)

• Fundamentally transformed how information is shared.

• Created an army of imitators and technical
  competition/innovation



2012/08/23                                                 4
                                                               4
So what is the relevance.

• Mainstream media is a going through a turbulent
  time.

BUT

• This is not a new thing, media disruption not a
  new thing, been with us for + 500 years. The
  difference now is speed and scale!


2012/08/23                                          5
                                                        5
2012/08/23                                                                        6
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012       6
2012/08/23                                                                        7
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012       7
2012/08/23                                                                        8
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012       8
2012/08/23                                                                        9
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012       9
2012/08/23                                                                        10
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012     10
2012/08/23                                                                        11
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012     11
2012/08/23                                                                        12
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012     12
2012/08/23                                                                        13
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012     13
2012/08/23                                                                        14
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012     14
2012/08/23                                                                        15
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012     15
2012/08/23                                                                        16
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012     16
2012/08/23                                                                        17
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012     17
What is on the menu.

  •Advertising trends
  •Audience trends
  •Issues and outliers




                         18
Advertising spend total 2007 - 2012
800,000,000



700,000,000



600,000,000



500,000,000



400,000,000



300,000,000



200,000,000



100,000,000



         0
              2007       2008          2009            2010   2011   2012




                     Source – ADEX. Rate card value.
                                                                       19
Advertising spend by brand – 12 months
20000000

18000000

16000000

14000000

12000000

10000000

 8000000

 6000000

 4000000

 2000000

       0
           1   6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101106111116121126131136141146151156161166171176181186191196

                                                        2011 2nd Half     12 1st Half




2012/08/23
                                   Source – ADEX. Rate card value.                                                          20
                                                                                                                               20
                                                                                                                              20
Advertising spend total – 12 months
25000000




20000000




15000000


              Increase in number of advertisers
              spending above R5m
10000000




 5000000




       0
             1
             5
             9
            13
            17
            21
            25
            29
            33
            37
            41
            45
            49
            53
            57
            61
            65
            69
            73
            77
            81
            85
            89
            93
            97
           101
           105
           109
           113
           117
           121
           125
           129
           133
           137
           141
           145
           149
           153
           157
           161
           165
           169
           173
           177
           181
           185
           189
           193
           197
                       Grand Total   2011 2nd Half   12 1st Half




 2012/08/23
              Source – ADEX. Rate card value.                      21
                                                                      21
                                                                     21
Median Spend – 12 months
250,000




200,000




150,000




100,000




 50,000




     0
          2011-07   2011-08   2011-09   2011-10   2011-11       2011-12      2012-01    2012-02     2012-03   2012-04   2012-05   2012-06

                                         Median Spend Top 250             Linear (Median Spend Top 250)




2012/08/23
                                Source – ADEX. Rate card value.                                                                   22
                                                                                                                                     22
                                                                                                                                    22
What the disruption looks like in established
markets.




2012/08/23                                                                        23
                                                                                     23
                                                                                    23
             http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012
So what is the take-away.

• Excellent growth; 20, 22, 30% in the past three years
     – Still disproportionate to time spent.


• Number of active advertisers and spend rate
  increasing

• Spend dominated by a few with loooong tail of
  brands engaging at low investment rates
     – Glass half-full huge potential, but still requires work.


2012/08/23                                                        24
                                                                     24
                                                                    24
Audience trends - why so important?

• Stating the obvious - audience = our currency

• DMMA = Reserve Bank of Digital Audience in SA

• DMMA engaging with SAARF on new
  methodologies to incorporate into SA research



2012/08/23                                        25
                                                     25
                                                    25
Unique Browsers – Past 12 Months
18,000,000


16,000,000


14,000,000


12,000,000


10,000,000


 8,000,000


 6,000,000


 4,000,000


 2,000,000


        0
             July   August   September October November December    January   February   March   April   May   June    July

                                                                   UB's




2012/08/23
                                Source – Effective Measure.                                                           26
                                                                                                                         26
                                                                                                                        26
Session vs Session Duration – Past 12 Months
140,000,000                                                        7.4

                                                                   7.2
120,000,000
                                                                   7

100,000,000                                                        6.8

                                                                   6.6
 80,000,000

                                                                   6.4

 60,000,000
                                                                   6.2


 40,000,000                                                        6

                                                                   5.8
 20,000,000
                                                                   5.6

         0                                                         5.4




                          Unique Sessions   Session Duration




2012/08/23
              Source – Effective Measure.                      27
                                                                  27
                                                                 27
Mobile share
18,000,000                                              25.00%


16,000,000

                                                        20.00%
14,000,000


12,000,000
                                                        15.00%
10,000,000


 8,000,000
                                                        10.00%
 6,000,000


 4,000,000
                                                        5.00%

 2,000,000


        0                                               0.00%




                          Unique Browsers   % Mobile




2012/08/23
             Source – Effective Measure.               28
                                                          28
                                                         28
1,000,000
                                                                                                           1,500,000
                                                                                                                       2,000,000
                                                                                                                                   2,500,000
                                                                                                                                               3,000,000
                                                                                                                                                           3,500,000
                                                                                                                                                                       4,000,000




                                                                                 0
                                                                                     500,000
                                                                      24.com




  2012/08/23
                                                                  DStv Online
                                               Junk Mail Publishing (PTY) LTD
                                                  Interface Holdings (Pty) Ltd
                                                       Brabys Media Holdings
                                                                    BBC.com
                                                      Mail & Guardian Online
                                                          Bizcommunity.com
                                                            BDFM Publishers
                                                                  Moneyweb
                                                               ITWeb Limited
                                                               Caxton Digital
                                                           Sharenet (Pty) Ltd
                                            Kahuna Mobility Solutions Pty Ltd
                                                          NewsCentral Media
                                                  Newsclip Media Monitoring
                                                                Ndalo Media
                                                                 Hayibo.com




        Source – Effective Measure.
                                                            Maritz Publishing
                                                           ABN Media Group
                                                       TheMarketingSite.com
                                                                Vottle Pty Ltd
                                                                        PNet
                                                               BizAssist.co.za
                                      Digital Media and Marketing Association …
                                           Pajero Owners Club of South Africa
                                                                 iDRIVE.co.za
                                                          Fortress of Solitude
                                                                  Tourism CC
                                                                  FaraiToday
                                                                                                                                                                                   Audience distribution – publishers July 2012




                                                                   What's UP
                                                          2oceansvibe Media
                                                               Melodi Media
29
  29




                                                                  Scrollmedia
   29




                                                                       Gradx
So what is the take-away.

• Disruption happening - decent growth over the past 12 months
     – +5m Ubs July 2011 – May 2012
     – Good advertising growth

• Mobile is clearly gaining traction
     – Biggest % contribution to growth
     – Duplication of audience NB

• Measured market extending

• Fat-head/long tail still at play
     – Smaller destinations need to acquire audience and market share




2012/08/23                                                              30
                                                                           30
                                                                          30
Issues to look forward to

• Paywalls and their impact on audience

• Mobile the big disruptor – but adspend limited
     – Prevailing CPMs 4x smaller on mobile

• Significant spend going to Ad Networks and social
     –   Increase ease of booking and efficiency
     –   Protect premium proposition
     –   Build case for brand engagement
     –   Know your audience

• Press Freedom and legislative changes

• Increase in exposure of international brands.


2012/08/23                                            31
                                                         31
                                                        31
Thank you.
Questions?




             32
               32

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Dmma august briefing g cohen presentation

  • 1. 1 1
  • 2. Who is this dude and can we trust him – hmmm 2
  • 3. The first disruptor. 2012/08/23 Source – Amazon.com/Jeff Jarvis. http://amzn.to/PzzqcL (Recommended) 3 3
  • 4. • Steve Jobs of the 1500’s - one of the earliest media entrepreneurs • Took an existing market/process and disrupted entirely • Made money (and BTW lost money) • Fundamentally transformed how information is shared. • Created an army of imitators and technical competition/innovation 2012/08/23 4 4
  • 5. So what is the relevance. • Mainstream media is a going through a turbulent time. BUT • This is not a new thing, media disruption not a new thing, been with us for + 500 years. The difference now is speed and scale! 2012/08/23 5 5
  • 6. 2012/08/23 6 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 6
  • 7. 2012/08/23 7 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 7
  • 8. 2012/08/23 8 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 8
  • 9. 2012/08/23 9 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 9
  • 10. 2012/08/23 10 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 10
  • 11. 2012/08/23 11 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 11
  • 12. 2012/08/23 12 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 12
  • 13. 2012/08/23 13 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 13
  • 14. 2012/08/23 14 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 14
  • 15. 2012/08/23 15 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 15
  • 16. 2012/08/23 16 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 16
  • 17. 2012/08/23 17 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012 17
  • 18. What is on the menu. •Advertising trends •Audience trends •Issues and outliers 18
  • 19. Advertising spend total 2007 - 2012 800,000,000 700,000,000 600,000,000 500,000,000 400,000,000 300,000,000 200,000,000 100,000,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source – ADEX. Rate card value. 19
  • 20. Advertising spend by brand – 12 months 20000000 18000000 16000000 14000000 12000000 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101106111116121126131136141146151156161166171176181186191196 2011 2nd Half 12 1st Half 2012/08/23 Source – ADEX. Rate card value. 20 20 20
  • 21. Advertising spend total – 12 months 25000000 20000000 15000000 Increase in number of advertisers spending above R5m 10000000 5000000 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97 101 105 109 113 117 121 125 129 133 137 141 145 149 153 157 161 165 169 173 177 181 185 189 193 197 Grand Total 2011 2nd Half 12 1st Half 2012/08/23 Source – ADEX. Rate card value. 21 21 21
  • 22. Median Spend – 12 months 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2011-07 2011-08 2011-09 2011-10 2011-11 2011-12 2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 2012-04 2012-05 2012-06 Median Spend Top 250 Linear (Median Spend Top 250) 2012/08/23 Source – ADEX. Rate card value. 22 22 22
  • 23. What the disruption looks like in established markets. 2012/08/23 23 23 23 http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-internet-trends-2012
  • 24. So what is the take-away. • Excellent growth; 20, 22, 30% in the past three years – Still disproportionate to time spent. • Number of active advertisers and spend rate increasing • Spend dominated by a few with loooong tail of brands engaging at low investment rates – Glass half-full huge potential, but still requires work. 2012/08/23 24 24 24
  • 25. Audience trends - why so important? • Stating the obvious - audience = our currency • DMMA = Reserve Bank of Digital Audience in SA • DMMA engaging with SAARF on new methodologies to incorporate into SA research 2012/08/23 25 25 25
  • 26. Unique Browsers – Past 12 Months 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 July August September October November December January February March April May June July UB's 2012/08/23 Source – Effective Measure. 26 26 26
  • 27. Session vs Session Duration – Past 12 Months 140,000,000 7.4 7.2 120,000,000 7 100,000,000 6.8 6.6 80,000,000 6.4 60,000,000 6.2 40,000,000 6 5.8 20,000,000 5.6 0 5.4 Unique Sessions Session Duration 2012/08/23 Source – Effective Measure. 27 27 27
  • 28. Mobile share 18,000,000 25.00% 16,000,000 20.00% 14,000,000 12,000,000 15.00% 10,000,000 8,000,000 10.00% 6,000,000 4,000,000 5.00% 2,000,000 0 0.00% Unique Browsers % Mobile 2012/08/23 Source – Effective Measure. 28 28 28
  • 29. 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 0 500,000 24.com 2012/08/23 DStv Online Junk Mail Publishing (PTY) LTD Interface Holdings (Pty) Ltd Brabys Media Holdings BBC.com Mail & Guardian Online Bizcommunity.com BDFM Publishers Moneyweb ITWeb Limited Caxton Digital Sharenet (Pty) Ltd Kahuna Mobility Solutions Pty Ltd NewsCentral Media Newsclip Media Monitoring Ndalo Media Hayibo.com Source – Effective Measure. Maritz Publishing ABN Media Group TheMarketingSite.com Vottle Pty Ltd PNet BizAssist.co.za Digital Media and Marketing Association … Pajero Owners Club of South Africa iDRIVE.co.za Fortress of Solitude Tourism CC FaraiToday Audience distribution – publishers July 2012 What's UP 2oceansvibe Media Melodi Media 29 29 Scrollmedia 29 Gradx
  • 30. So what is the take-away. • Disruption happening - decent growth over the past 12 months – +5m Ubs July 2011 – May 2012 – Good advertising growth • Mobile is clearly gaining traction – Biggest % contribution to growth – Duplication of audience NB • Measured market extending • Fat-head/long tail still at play – Smaller destinations need to acquire audience and market share 2012/08/23 30 30 30
  • 31. Issues to look forward to • Paywalls and their impact on audience • Mobile the big disruptor – but adspend limited – Prevailing CPMs 4x smaller on mobile • Significant spend going to Ad Networks and social – Increase ease of booking and efficiency – Protect premium proposition – Build case for brand engagement – Know your audience • Press Freedom and legislative changes • Increase in exposure of international brands. 2012/08/23 31 31 31

Editor's Notes

  1. 2009 – 22%2010 – 23%2011 - 30%