Developed presentation for public release of 2014 book, Diversity Explosion, by Brookings Institution scholar Bill Frey.

1. DIVERSITY
EXPLOSION
HOW NEW RACIAL DEMOGRAPHICS
ARE REMAKING AMERICA
#DiversityExplosion

2. Source: analysis of US Census data 1980 2010200019901970 2020 2030 2040 2050
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
Millions
Whites
ce: U.S. censuses and Census Bureau projections, various years.
Minorities
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
s and Census Bureau projections, various years.
Minorities
80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
U.S. white and minority populations, 1970-2050
Minorities
Whites

3. 21st Century Racial Population Trends
- Rapid growth of “new minorities”
- Diminished growth and rapid aging of whites
- Black advances and migration reversals
- Shift to “no racial majority” nation

4. Demographic Dynamics
Diversity by Migration
“from the melting pot, out”
Diversity by Generation
“from the bottom, up”
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
Age
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
1

5. Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
Age
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
Cultural Generation Gap
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
Age
Population Composition, by Age and Race, 2010
Source: analysis of US Census data
Blacks Asians HispanicsWhites Other races2+ races
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
25%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%

6. Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010-40
Source: analysis of US Census data
FIGURE 2-5
Youth and Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
TOTAL POPULATION
Ratio
WHITES HISPANIC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2
Old-age dependency ratio
(Population age 65 and above
Youth dependency ratio
(Population under age 18 as
ld-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio
(Population age 65 and above
dependency ratio
tion under age 18 as
ld-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio
(Population age 65 and above
dependency ratio
tion under age 18 as
Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS
0
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio
(Population age 65 and above
dependency ratio
ation under age 18 as
Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2010–40
POPULATION WHITES HISPANICS
0
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Old-age dependency ratio
(Population age 65 and above
dependency ratio
ation under age 18 as
Old-age Dependency Ratio Youth Dependency Ratio

7. Demographic Dynamics
Diversity by Generation
“from the bottom, up”
Diversity by Migration
“from the melting pot, out”
Under 5
5–17
18–35
35–49
50–64
65–74
85+
Age
51%
55%
58%
64%
73%
79%
85%
22%
20%
16%
10%
7%
5%
25%
4%
4%
5%
5%
4%
4%14%
14%
13%
12%
11%
9%
7%
1

8. Melting Pot, New Sun Belt, and Heartland America
Melting Pot
New Sun Belt
Heartland
San Francisco
Los Angeles
Houston
Miami
Chicago
New York City
Source: analysis of US Census data

9. Hispanic Concentration Areas and New Hispanics Destinations
Hispanic concentration/
modest growth (33 metros)
Hispanic concentration/
fast growth (44 metros)
New Hispanic destinations
(145 metros)
Charlotte
Omaha
Atlanta
Source: analysis of US Census data

10. Counties with Minority Overrepresentation
Source: analysis of US Census data
Blacks
Hispanics
Asians
Other
2+ races
None

11. Metropolitan Chicago and Atlanta Black Populations, 1970-2010
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.6
0.4
0.8
0.2
0.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Chicago
Atlanta
millions
Source: analysis of US Census data

12. Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs

13. 1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
1990
2000
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
74
78
54
57
62
47
54
59
51
44
37
77
Percent of Residents Residing in Suburbs, top 100 metros
Source: analysis of US Census data
White Asian Hispanic Black
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

14. Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
- Reduced Neighborhood Segregation

15. FIGURE 9-1
Black-White Segregation: Average Levels for Metropolitan Areas,
1930–2010
Segregation levela
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Black-White Average Segregation Level, 1930-2010

16. Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
- Reduced Neighborhood Segregation
- Multiracial Marriage and Identity

17. 0
14
12
16
10
8
6
4
2
2008-2010
NEW MARRIAGES
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
ALL MARRIAGES
Multiracial Marriages as a Percent of all Marriages
4.6%
0.4%
0.7%
3.2%
6.7%
8.4%
15.2%

18. Trends Towards Integration
- Melting Pot Cities and Suburbs
- Reduced Neighborhood Segregation
- Multiracial Marriage and Identity
- Extending the Political Battleground

19. Minorities as Share of Eligible Voters, 2012
5%-14%
25%-34%
15%-24%
34% and over
Under 5%

20. States Won by Democratic and Republican Candidates
Democrat win
Democrat win, due to
minority support
Republican win
2004 Election2008 Election2012 Election

21. William Frey
Senior Fellow
wfrey@brookings.edu
#DiversityExplosion
DIVERSITY
EXPLOSION