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S T U D Y 	 O F 	 R E A L 	 E S T A T E 	 P R I C I N G 	
OPRE	6377	
DEMAND	AND	REVENUE	MANAGEMENT	
	
	
	
PREPARED	BY:	
GHAZALEH	HASSANZADEH		
GOLNAZ	SHAHFIPOUFARD	
HUZAIR	TIRMIZI	
NITIN	MAURYA	
TANU	AGGARWAL
2	
	
Table	of	Contents	
1.	Objective	.........................................................................................................................................	3	
2.	Introduction	....................................................................................................................................	4	
2.1	Housing	Market	in	United	States	...................................................................................................................................................	4	
2.2	Housing	Prices	Trend	in	Dallas	Area	............................................................................................................................................	4	
2.3	Real	Estate	Industry	in	Collin	County	..........................................................................................................................................	6	
2.4	Future	of	house	pricing	in	real	estate	market	..........................................................................................................................	8	
3.	Demand	Drivers	............................................................................................................................	10	
3.	Research	Methodology	..................................................................................................................	11	
3.1	Hedonic	Methodology	......................................................................................................................................................................	11	
3.2	Role	of	Zillow’s	Zestimate	..............................................................................................................................................................	12	
3.3	Analysis	Steps	......................................................................................................................................................................................	13	
4.	Regression	Analysis	......................................................................................................................	14	
4.1	 Data	Description	............................................................................................................................................................................	14	
4.2	 Regression	Model	Building	........................................................................................................................................................	14	
4.3	 Model	Interpretation	...................................................................................................................................................................	15	
4.3.1	Analysis	of	Variances	(Table	1)	..................................................................................................................................................	15	
4.3.2.	Overall	model	fit	(Table	2)	..........................................................................................................................................................	16	
4.3.3	Parameter	Estimates	(Table	3)	..................................................................................................................................................	16	
4.3.4.	Predictor	Effects	of	the	Model	....................................................................................................................................................	17	
4.4	Using	the	Model	to	estimate	a	house	value	............................................................................................................................	17	
5.	Estimation	in	the	Real	world	.........................................................................................................	18	
5.1	Comparison	between	leading	websites	...................................................................................................................................	18	
5.2	Accuracy	comparison	between	Zillow	and	Trulia	...............................................................................................................	19	
6.	Observations	and	Conclusions	......................................................................................................	20	
7.	Future	Scope	.................................................................................................................................	20	
8.	References	.....................................................................................................................................	21	
9.	Appendix	......................................................................................................................................	22	
9.1	Data	..........................................................................................................................................................................................................	22
3	
	
1.	Objective	
	
The	 focus	 of	 this	 project	 is	 to	 understand	 the	 dynamics	 of	 pricing	 a	 house	 in	 Real	 Estate	
industry.	Pricing	of	a	house	is	dependent	on	various	variables	(external	and	internal),	for	e.g.	
No	of	Bedrooms,	Area,	Location	etc.	As	a	part	of	this	project	we	will	be	studying	major	factors	
that	can	be	quantified	and	affect	the	pricing	of	a	house:		
• Price		
• No.	of	Bedrooms		
• No.	of	Bathrooms		
• Lot	Area		
• Sq.	ft.		
• Age		
We	 will	 try	 to	 find	 a	 relation	 of	 the	 above	 factors	 with	 Price	 of	 house	 using	 Regression	
Analysis.	 Finally,	 we	 will	 formulate	 hypotheses	 to	 validate	 the	 scope	 and	 findings	 of	 our	
project	by	estimating	the	price	of	a	house	currently	on	sale.
4	
2.	Introduction	
2.1	Housing	Market	in	United	States	
Housing	market	in	the	U.S.	is	characterized	by	what	is	called	"boom-bust"	cycles.	In	such	a	
cycle,	 housing	 prices	 increase	 for	 a	 time,	 sometimes	 steeply,	 and	 then	 drop.	 U.S.	 housing	
prices	are	still	recovering	from	the	housing	bust	that	began	in	2006,	and	prices	are	dictated	by	
supply	and	demand	factors	[1].	
Generally,	supply	and	demand	broadly	affects	prices	for	goods	and	services.	For	instance,	if	
one	is	looking	to	buy	a	home	in	a	high-end	neighborhood,	the	supply	of	good	homes	within	
that	 neighborhood	 may	 be	 limited.	 When	 there	 is	 a	 limited	 supply	 of	 houses	 in	 a	
neighborhood	and	numerous	buyers	interested	in	those	houses,	sellers	can	set	higher	prices.	
Considering	a	seller's	housing	market,	there	are,	on	average	more	potential	buyers	than	the	
available	supply	of	affordable	houses	[1].	
Housing	prices	in	individual	markets	may	not	necessarily	follow	downward	trends	of	housing	
prices	or	might	recover	more	quickly.	For	instance,	as	of	December	2012,	Los	Altos,	California,	
featuring	 an	 average	 listing	 price	 of	 $1.7	 million	 for	 four-bedroom,	 two-bath	 homes,	 has	
shown	the	effects	of	the	U.S.	housing	market	bust	relatively	well	[1].	By	contrast,	the	average	
listing	 price	 for	 a	 home	 in	 Redford,	 Michigan,	 was	 almost	 below	 $60,500,	 according	 to	 a	
November	2012	ABC	News	article.
Economic	 slowdown	 in	 2006,	 took	 the	 U.S.	 housing	 market	 to	 bust.	 As	 the	 rate	 of	
unemployment	increased,	mortgages	became	hard	to	afford,	and	many	homebuyers	defaulted.	
Consequently,	lenders	began	suffering	huge	losses	on	mortgage	loans	they	had	given.	To	react	
to	mortgage	defaults,	lenders	started	tightening	credit,	thus	decreasing	the	number	of	eligible	
homebuyers	and	driving	down	house	prices.	Although	there	were	millions	of	houses	available	
for	sale,	eligible	buyers	were	scarce	which	depressed	listing	prices	even	further	[1].	
2.2	Housing	Prices	Trend	in	Dallas	Area	
	
The	Dallas	area	leads	the	country	in	home	price	gains.	Compared	to	last	year,	median	home	
sales	prices	have	been	more	than	10	percent	higher	in	2015	summer.	In	a	dozen	Dallas-area	
neighborhoods	price	hiked	up	to	15	percent	or	more,	according	to	a	midyear	analysis	of	the	
North	 Texas	 home	 market	 based	 on	 data	 from	 the	 Real	 Estate	 Center	 at	 Texas	 A&M
5	
University.	Real	estate	agents	point	out	that	the	demand	for	housing	and	the	prices	are	fed	by	
relocations	resulting	from	job	growth.	Demand	is	especially	high	for	more	affordably	priced	
homes,	which	are	in	short	supply	in	the	Dallas	area	[2].	
	
	
Fig	1:	Housing	Prices	Trend	-	Dallas	Area	-	2015	
	
Thirty	 of	 the	 45	 Dallas-area	 residential	 districts	 which	 “The	 Dallas	 Morning	 News”	 tracks	
quarterly	have	less	than	a	two-month	supply	of	houses	listed	for	sale.	That	is	less	than	a	third	
of	what	is	considered	a	normal	inventory.	According	to	midyear	numbers,	It	is	even	less	than	a	
month’s	inventory	in	Colony,	Richardson,	Bedford	and	Hurst	[2].	
	
The	 S&P/Case-Shiller	 Home	 Price	 Index	 is	 used	 to	 measure	 the	 health	 of	 the	 U.S.	 housing	
market.	 It	 tracks	 changes	 in	 the	 value	 of	 residential	 real	 estate,	 both	 nationally	 and	 in	 20	
metropolitan	regions	and	is	composed	of	separate	indexes	which	are	published	on	the	last	
Tuesday	of	each	month,	with	a	two-month	lag	[22].	
• The	national	home	price	index,	covering	nine	major	census	divisions.	
• The	10-city	composite	index	
• The	20-city	composite	index	
• 20	individual	metro	area	indexes	for	each	of	the	cities	in	the	indexes	above
6	
Dallas	prices	in	the	Case-Shiller	index	are	now	about	14	percent	ahead	of	where	they	were	at	
the	peak	of	the	housing	market	before	the	recession.	A	limited	availability	of	houses	for	sale	
has	increased	prices	by	more	than	twenty	percent	in	the	last	year	in	some	neighborhoods	in	
Dallas-area.	Furthermore,	raining	has	held	back	home	construction	in	North	Texas	so	far	in	
2015	and	has	further	constrained	the	housing	supply.	Many	constructions	have	been	delayed	
a	month	because	the	ground	has	been	too	wet	to	pour	slabs	and	streets	[3].	
	
	
Fig	2:	Case-	Shiller	Home	Price	Index	
	
2.3	Real	Estate	Industry	in	Collin	County	
	
Collin	 County	 is	 located	 north	 of	 Dallas	 County	 and	 includes	 some	 of	 the	 most	 populous	
suburbs	of	the	DFW	Metroplex	including	Plano,	Frisco,	McKinney,	and	Allen.		Collin	County	is	
approximately	886	square	miles	and	has	a	population	that	is	expected	to	top	one	million	in	
the	next	few	years.		
	
Recovery	in	the	Texas	housing	market	is	occurring	considerably	from	2012	after	the	crash	of	
the	housing	market.	Improvement	in	economical	condition	has	been	increasing	demand.	The
7	
high	demand	and	quick	selling	time	have	led	to	an	inventory	shortage.	Decline	in	inventory	
since	2012,	started	in	2011,	has	been	reducing	the	supply.	This	has	caused	the	trend	of	slow	
increasing	in	prices	of	houses.			
	
The	 decrease	 in	 average	 days	 on	 market	 of	 a	 single-family	 home	 since	 2012	 supports	 the	
increase	in	demand.	This	trend	can	be	observed	through	charts	like	supply	of	home	inventory,	
average	days	on	market	and	average	price	for	single	homes	in	Collin	County	in	last	10	years.	
These	 charts	 have	 been	 published	 in	 published	 in	 Collin	 county	 real	 estate	 market	 report.	
Following	figures	are	extracted	from	the	Collin	county	real	estate	market	report	[7].	
	
	
												Fig	3:	Supply	of	Single	Family	Home	Inventory	in	Collin	County	
As	mentioned	before,	the	figure	shows	continued	decrease	in	supply	of	single	family	home	
inventory	from	2012	after	initial	drastic	decrease	from	2011	to	2012	[7].	
	
Fig	4:	Average	Days	on	Market	of	Single	Family	Homes	in	Collin	County
8	
The	decrease	in	average	days	on	market	of	single	family	home	has	also	observed	with	respect	
to	price	change,	number	of	bedroom	and	area	in	square	footage.	The	strength	of	our	housing	
market	continues	to	show	steady	resilience,	trending	upward	on	a	progressive	incline	year	to	
year.	It	is	consistent	with	average	original	list	price	data	[7].		
	
Fig	5:	Average	Original	List	Prices	of	Single	Family	Homes	in	Collin	County	
A	strong	economy,	good	schools,	low	crime	rate	and	a	consistent	job	market	is	the	reason	
behind	flourishing	housing	market	of	Collin	County.	In	2014,	CNN	Money	Magazine	ranked	
McKinney	 1st	 place	 among	 “Best	 Places	 to	 Live	 in	 the	 United	 States”	 [8].	 Realtor.com	
identified	Plano	as	the	country’s	4th	hottest	zip	code	in	2013	out	of	32,000	others	across	the	
U.S.	
Thousands	of	workers	moving	to	Plano	for	jobs	with	Toyota,	Liberty	Mutual	Insurance,	FedEx	
and	 others	 has	 made	 housing	 market	 of	 Plano	 hot	 never	 before.	 Most	 recently,	 Plano	 was	
named	the	10th	best	city	to	find	a	job	in	2015	by	WalletHub	[8].	We	have	taken	data	from	
houses	located	in	Plano	because	Plano’s	housing	market	is	booming	and	it	also	major	reason	
behind	rise	of	Collin	County	housing	market.	In	the	next	section,	we	will	talk	about	demand	
drivers	of	housing	market.	
2.4	Future	of	house	pricing	in	real	estate	market	
There	 are	 two	 major	 elements	 of	 the	 housing	 market,	 which	 are	 residential	 housing	
construction	and	home	sales,	or	real	estate.	Moreover,	a	group	of	activities	such	as	mortgage	
lending,	 raw	 materials	 and	 housing	 market-related	 employment	 are	 dependent	 on	 new	
housing	starts	and	house	sales.	As	to	the	housing	market's	future,	overall	home	prices	should	
at	least	gradually	begin	increasing	over	time	[4].
9	
U.S.	 housing	 prices	 are	 starting	 to	 see	 modest	 annual	 increases.	 According	 to	 University	 of	
California,	Berkeley,	economist	Kenneth	Rosen,	housing	prices	may	post	modest	increases	of	1	
to	2	percent	annually	through	2020.	Adjusted	for	inflation,	housing	price	increases	tend	to	
follow	 wage	 growth;	 with	 U.S.	 wages	 increasing	 as	 the	 economy	 gradually	 improves.	
Furthermore,	demographic	changes	in	the	U.S.	population,	as	children	of	baby	boomers	enter	
their	peak	earning	years,	should	help	to	strengthen	housing	markets	[4].	
The	housing	market	took	a	severe	downturn	in	late	2007	and	for	a	few	years	after	due	to	
more	economic	issues.	As	the	economy	slowed	down	starting	in	mid-2006,	mortgage	defaults	
began	 increasing	 and	 lenders	 started	 tightening	 credit	 standards,	 which	 in	 turn	 depressed	
housing	prices.	With	unemployment	up,	fewer	people	able	to	afford	homes	and	more	people	
losing	 their	 homes,	 the	 housing	 market	 crashed.	 However,	 as	 the	 housing	 market	
reestablishes	balance,	prices	are	stabilizing	and	even	starting	to	rise	in	many	markets	[4].	
For	housing	prices	to	at	least	rise	with	inflation,	housing	markets	must	be	in	a	balanced	state.	
A	housing	market	is	considered	balanced	if	its	housing	supply	matches	the	demand	for	that	
housing.	 During	 the	 years	 before	 the	 late-2007	 housing	 market	 crash,	 demand	 for	 housing	
surpassed	 supply.	 When	 the	 housing	 market	 crashed,	 an	 oversupply	 of	 housing	 combined	
with	fewer	buyers	weakened	prices	[1].	Nevertheless,	many	housing	markets	are	now	seeing	
housing	inventories	decreasing	gradually,	with	bidding	wars	even	happening	in	several	hot	
markets	[4].	
It	 is	 expected	 that	 individual	 markets	 experience	 steeper	 rises	 than	 the	 expected	 annual	
increase	of	1	to	2	percent	in	housing	prices.	In	housing,	location	is	everything,	and	prime	real	
estate	locations	will	certainly	witness	greater	price	rises.	In	areas	where	job	growth	is	strong,	
housing	 prices	 will	 react	 accordingly	 and	 start	 increasing.	 Finally,	 real	 estate	 markets	 are	
cyclical,	with	boom-bust	cycles	as	a	regular	event,	meaning	within	15	or	so	years	another	real	
estate	boom	may	happen	[4].	
Housing	price	increase	of	1	to	2	percent	over	inflation	are	a	welcome	change	from	late-2007	
housing	market	crash	dynamics.	It	is	though	unknown	whether	housing	price	increases	will	
again	 reach	 their	 intensity	 as	 during	 the	 late	 2001	 to	 late	 2007	 real	 estate	 boom.	 What	 is	
obvious	and	certain	is	that,	in	long	term,	our	chasing	a	house	and	occupying	it	because	of	the	
joy	of	it,	is	never	a	losing	proposition.	For	housing	market	investors,	identifying	key	profitable	
markets	and	then	smartly	exploiting	them	usually	delivers	a	winning	hand	[4].
10	
3.	Demand	Drivers	
Actual	 prices	 and	 rents	 are	 the	 endogenous	 determinants	 of	 real	 estate	 demand	 of	 housing.	
However,	 Apart	 from	 prices,	 non-price	 or	 exogenous	 factors	 have	 significant	 influence	 on	
quantity	demanded	[11].	Real	estate	analysts	give	greater	importance	to	the	exogenous	factors.	
Competent	 forecasts	 of	 these	 factors	 can	 be	 very	 helpful	 in	 assessing	 real	 estate	 market	
prospects,	evaluating	project	viability,	and	identifying	real	estate	development	and	investment	
opportunities.	 The	 exogenous	 drivers	 of	 the	 demand	 for	 real	 estate	 can	 be	 classified	 into	 the	
following	four	categories	[11]:		
• Market	Size		
• 	Income/Wealth		
• 	Prices	of	Substitutes		
• 	Expectations	
	
a) Market	size:	Major	market	size	variables	that	drive	the	demand	for	housing	market	are	
population	and	employment.	The	effect	of	market	size	on	real	estate	demand	is	positive,	
that	is,	for	the	same	price	level	and	larger	market	size	a	greater	quantity	of	real	estate	will	
be	demanded	in	terms	of	either	square	footage	or	number	of	units.		
Collin	 county	 population	 has	 risen	 from	 837,476	 in	 2012	 to	 885,241	 in	 2014	 as	 per	
census	bureau	[12]	[13].		Plano	population	has	reached	to	267,411	in	2012	to	272,784	in	
2014.	Moreover,	Collin	County’s	unemployment	rate	has	reduced	from	5.9%	in	2012	to	
4.5%	in	2014.	The	unemployment	rate	in	Plano	is	4.3%	with	job	growth	of	3.43%.	Future	
job	growth	in	Plano	over	the	next	ten	years	is	predicted	to	be	42.60%.	
	
b) Income/wealth:	It	affects	directly	the	demand	for	residential	real	estate	in	the	sense	that,	
keeping	prices	constant,	as	income	increases	more	households	can	afford	to	buy	a	house.	
Therefore,	increases	in	real	income	or	wealth	should	be	associated	with	increases	in	the	
number	of	housing	units	and	the	square	footage	of	retail	space	demanded.	The	median	
household	income	for	Collin	County	is	$81,819,	which	is	57%	higher	than	that	of	Texas	
($52,130).	Median	household	income	for	Plano	is	$95,150	[14].	(Income	data	is	sourced	
from	census,	2015)
11	
C) The	price	of	substitutes:	It	induces	shifts	in	the	demand	for	real	estate.	For	example,	for	
a	given	level	of	single-family	housing	prices,	increases	in	apartment	rents	are	likely	to	
induce	a	shift	of	the	demand	curve	for	single	family-	housing	to	the	right.	Such	a	shift	is	
likely	to	occur	because	as	renting	becomes	more	expensive	relative	to	owning	a	house	
some	renters	may	find	home-ownership	more	attractive.			
	
As	per	Zillow’s	rent	versus	buy	calculator,	considering	gross	costs,	equity	and	investment	
potential,	it	is	better	to	buy	than	rent	if	one	has	plan	to	live	in	one’s	home	more	than	1	
year	 and	 11	 months	 [15].	 Furthermore,	 Mortgage	 rate	 curve	 has	 been	 very	 slightly	
declining	from	2013	to	present.	Mortgage	rates	are	currently	low	and	back	in	3s.	It	has	
lowered	the	cost	of	a	monthly	mortgage.	It	can	favor	housing	market	more	then	rental	
market.		
	
D) Expectations:	 	 Consumer	 or	 firm	 expectations	 may	 induce	 shifts	 in	 demand	 for	 the	
different	types	of	real	estate.	For	example,	expectations	of	higher	prices	or	rents	in	the	
future	 may	 result	 in	 increases	 in	 the	 number	 of	 housing	 units	 demanded.	 	 Similarly,	
growth	 expectations	 may	 also	 induce	 shifts	 in	 the	 demand	 for	 housing	 real	 estate.	 For	
example,	 Toyota	 Motor	 Company	 announced	 that	 it	 was	 moving	 from	 its	 California	
headquarters	to	North	Dallas.	This	induced	demand	for	housing	near	Plano	area.		
3.	Research	Methodology	
	3.1	Hedonic	Methodology		
	
At	first	glance,	aggregate	house	prices	appear	easy	to	measure:	Just	take	the	average	of	all	the	
house	prices	in	the	region.	But	houses	are	bought	and	sold	only	occasionally.	At	times	other	
than	the	time	of	sale,	the	value	of	a	house	is	determined	through	an	appraisal.	But	this	is	only	
an	educated	guess	of	the	sale	price	of	that	house	if	it	were	sold	at	the	time	of	the	appraisal.	
There	are	different	types	of	methodologies	use	at	the	market	of	houses.	For	instance:	median	
sales	price	methodology,	Repeat-sales	methodology,	and	the	methodology	has	been	used	in	
this	report	is	based	on	hedonic	methodology.		
	
Hedonic	 methodology	 is	 an	 approach	 to	 house	 price	 index	 construction	 that	 estimates	 the	
typical	effects	of	a	house’s	attributes	on	price	using	regression	model.	This	approach	allows	
the	 index	 to	 accurately	 measure	 the	 changes	 in	 the	 value	 of	 a	 home	 over	 time	 based	 on	 a
12	
single	 sale	 through	 inference	 using	 the	 typical	 value	 associated	 with	 the	 changes	 in	 house	
attributes	over	time	[16].	
3.2	Role	of	Zillow’s	Zestimate	
	
Introduction:	 The	 Zestimate	 home	 valuation	 is	 called	 Zestimate,	 computed	 using	 a	
proprietary	formula.	It	is	the	starting	point	in	determining	a	home's	value	where	Zestimate	is	
calculated	from	public	and	user-submitted	data	taking	into	account	special	features,	location,	
and	market	conditions.	Zestimate	is	calculated	as	a	value	range,	which	can	be	interpreted	as	
highest	 and	 lowest	 estimated	 values	 of	 a	 home.	 The	 range	 of	 Zestimate	 depends	 on	 the	
magnitude	 of	 Zillow’s	 historical	 ability	 to	 estimate	 homes.	 Wider	 Zestimate	 value	 Range	
shows	 less	 available	 data	 and	 more	 volatility.	 On	 the	 other	 hand,	 a	 smaller	 range	 means	
precise	 values	 and	 more	 availability	 of	 data.	 Generally,	 Zestimate	 is	 calculated	 at	 70%	
confidence	interval	[17].	
	
How	 is	 Zestimate	 calculated?	 	 Zestimate	 considers	 home	 characteristics	 such	 as	 square	
footage,	location,	and	number	of	bathrooms	[18].	It	gives	different	weights	according	to	their	
influence	on	home	sale	prices	in	specific	geography	over	a	specific	period	of	time.	Attributes	
used	in	the	calculation	algorithm	can	be	classified	as:	
• Physical	attributes:	Location,	lot	size,	square	footage,	number	of	bedrooms	and	no.	of	
bathrooms	and	other	details.	
• Tax	assessments:	Property	tax	information,	actual	property	taxes	paid,	exceptions	to	
tax	assessments	and	other	information	provided	in	the	tax	assessors'	records.	
• Prior	and	current	transactions:	Actual	sale	prices	over	time	of	the	home	itself	and	
comparable	recent	sales	of	nearby	homes	
How	 accurate	 is	 Zestimate?	 As	 per	 available	 information,	 in	 United	 States	 Zestimate	 is	
accurate	75%	(3	out	of	4	times)	on	an	average	with	highest	accuracy	of	100%	in	Arizona	and	
Alabama.	In	Texas,	Zesitimate’s	accuracy	drops	to	25%	(1	out	of	4	times).	In	DFW	Region	total	
number	of	homes	listed	on	Zillow	is	close	to	2	million	(2,096,927)	and	Zestimate	have	been	
calculated	for	around	1.9	million	homes	(1,929,958)	with	50%	accuracy	(2	out	of	4	times).	For	
27%	of	homes	listed	in	DFW	area,	Zestimate	are	95%	accurate.
13	
3.3	Analysis	Steps	
	
1. Following	the	Hedonic	approach,	we	chose	houses	from	Collin	County	(Plano	area),	Texas	
from	 Zillow’s	 website	 which	 were	 sold	 in	 the	 last	 6	 months.	 Only	 those	 houses	 were	
considered	as	a	part	of	this	study	where	actual	selling	prices	was	available	on	Zillow’s	
website	and	were	ordered	from	newest	to	the	oldest.		
	
	
Fig	8:	Zillow’s	Real	Estate	map	
	
2. Houses	were	filtered	based	on	the	variables	required	for	our	study	viz.		“selling	price”,	
“floor-size-SQFT”,	 “lot-area-SQFT”,	 ”price/SQFT”,	 ”number	 of	 rooms”,	 ”number	 of	 baths”,	
”age	(month)”		
3. Houses	were	tracked	and	data	was	collected	over	a	period	of	1	month	for	40	houses	in	
Collin	County	and	stored	in	MS	Excel	format.	
4. Data	in	the	excel	format	was	entered	to	Business	Intelligence	Software	package	“SAS”	for	
Regression	Analysis.	s	
5. Result	screenshots	from	SAS	were	captured	and	analyzed	as	a	part	of	this	report.	
6. Hypothesis	Testing	was	done	to	test	whether	or	not	the	chosen	predictor	variables	have	a	
significant	impact	on	the	pricing	houses.		
7. Finally,	the	Regression	Equation	was	tested	with	a	random	sample	data	of	house	from	
Zillow	and	results	were	compared	with	the	Selling	Price	provided	on	Zillow.
14	
	4.	Regression	Analysis	
4.1		Data	Description	
	
The	MS	Excel	file	(ref.	Appendix)	contains	information	for	40	houses	located	in	Plano	region	
picked	 up	 from	 Zillow’s	 website	 which	 were	 sold	 in	 the	 last	 6	 months.	 We	 will	 model	 the	
selling	prices	of	these	houses	using	the	predictor	variables		
• Floor_Size_sqft	=	Floor	Size	in	squarefeet	
• Lot_Area_sqft	=	Lot	area	in	squarefeet	
• Pricepersqft	=	Price	of	lot	per	sqft	
• No_of_Rooms	=	Number	of	bedrooms	
• No_of_Baths	=	Number	of	bathrooms	
• Age_months	=	Age	of	the	house	since	it	is	built	(In	months)	
	
	
Fig	9:	Price	Distribution	of	chosen	houses	
4.2	Regression	Model	Building	
	
The	regression	equation	is	set	up	as:		
Selling_Price	(House)	=		β1	+	β2	*Floor_Size_sqft	+	β3*	Lot_Area_sqft	+	β4*	Pricepersqft	+	
β5*	No_of_Rooms	+	β6*	No_of_Baths	+	β6*	Age_months
15	
	
Using	SAS,	we	performed	regression	analysis	on	the	data	collected.	SAS	gives	us	the	following	
output.	
	
	
	
Fig	10.	SAS	Output	
4.3	Model	Interpretation	
4.3.1	Analysis	of	Variances	(Table	1)	
This	table	performs	the	Initial	Hypothesis	Testing	as	described	below	to	help	us	understand	if	our	
regression	model	is	effective.	
• Ho:	If	there	is	no	significant	effect	of	independent	variables	on	dependent	variable	
i.e.	all	the	model	coefficients	are	zero.	
o β1=	β2=	β3=0	
• H1:	If	there	is	any	significant	effect	of	independent	variables	on	dependent	variable.	
o β1≠	β2≠	β3≠0
16	
	
In	this	case,	the	p-value	associated	with	the	above	F-statistic	is	<.0001	hence,	we	REJECT	our	Ho	
and	 conclude	 that	 there	 is	 significant	 effect	 of	 independent	 variables	 on	 dependent	 variable.	
Therefore,	we	proceed	with	the	regression	analysis.		
4.3.2.	Overall	model	fit	(Table	2)	
R-square:	 In	 this	 table	 the	 R-Square	 value	 is	 of	 prime	 importance	 to	 us.	 R-Squared	 is	 the	
proportion	of	variance	in	the	dependent	variable	(Selling_Price)	that	can	be	explained	by	the	
independent	 variables	 (Floor_Size_sqft,	 Lot_Area_sqft,	 Pricepersqft,	 No_of_Rooms,	
No_of_Baths	and	Age_months).		
This	is	an	overall	measure	of	the	strength	of	association	and	does	not	reflect	the	extent	to	
which	any	particular	independent	variable	is	associated	with	the	dependent	variable.	
4.3.3	Parameter	Estimates	(Table	3)	
This	 table	 gives	 us	 the	 values	 for	 coefficient	 estimates	 that	 can	 be	 used	 in	 the	 regression	
equation	for	predicting	the	dependent	variable	from	the	independent	variables.	Hence,	our	
predicting	equation	is	given	by:		
Selling_Price	=			-508091	+	119.67390*Floor_Size_sqft	+	(-3.79773)*	Lot_Area_sqft	+							
3548.00900*	Pricepersqft	+	18242*	No_of_Rooms	+	1392.68477*	No_of_Baths	+	150.594663	*	
Age_months	
	
Pr	>	|t|-	This	column	shows	the	2-tailed	p-values	used	in	testing	the	following	hypothesis		
	
• Ho:	The	coefficient	of	the	respective	parameters	is	zero.	i.e.	βi=0	for	all	i	=	1	to	6	
• H1:	The	coefficient	of	the	respective	parameters	is	significantly	different	from	zero.	
i.e.	βi≠0	for	all	i	=	1	to	6	
	
Using	a	confidence	level	(alpha)	of	0.05	
• The	 coefficient	 for	Floor_Size_sqft	(119.67390)	 is	 significantly	 different	 from	 zero	
because	its	p-value	is	<0.0001,	which	is	smaller	than	0.05.		
• The	coefficient	for	Lot_Area_sqft	(-3.79773)	is	not	statistically	significant	at	the	0.05	
level	since	the	p-value	0.1064	is	greater	than	.05.	
• The	coefficient	for	Pricepersqft	(3548.00900)	is	statistically	significant	because	its	p-
value	<0.0001	is	smaller	than	0.05.
17	
• The	coefficient	for	No_of_Rooms	(18242)	is	not	statistically	significant	because	its	p-
value	of	0.0799	is	greater	than	.05.	
• The	coefficient	for	No_of_Baths	(1392.68477)	is	not	statistically	significant	because	its	
p-value	of	0.9049	is	greater	than	.05.	
• The	coefficient	for	Age_months	(150.594663)	is	statistically	significant	because	its	p-
value	of	0.0147	is	less	than	.05.	
• The	intercept	is	also	significantly	different	from	0	at	the	0.05	alpha	level.	
4.3.4.	Predictor	Effects	of	the	Model	
For	each	significant	coefficient	i.e.	Floor_Size_sqft	,	Pricepersqft	and	Age_months	
• The	estimate	of	119.67390	for	Floor_Size_sqft	indicates	that		
o 1	square	feet	increase	in	the	Floor	size	will	increase	the	selling	price	of	the	house	
by	approximately	$119.	
• The	estimate	of	3548.00900	for	Pricepersqft	indicates	that		
o 	$1	increase	in	Price	of	lot	increases	the	selling	price	of	the	house	by	approximately	
$3548.	
• The	estimate	of	150.594663	for	Age_months	indicates	that	if	
o House	was	1	month	older	then	the	value	of	the	selling	price	of	the	house	increase	
by	approximately	$150.	
4.4	Using	the	Model	to	estimate	a	house	value	
Let’s	take	an	example	and	predict	the	selling	price	of	a	randomly	selected	house	from	Zillow:	
	
Attribute	 Value	
Address	 7017	Brook	Forest	Cir	Plano,	Texas	-	75024	
Floor	Size	 3324	ft.	
Lot	Area	 7187	Sq.	ft.	
Price	per	sqft	 $	141/	ft.		
No	of	Rooms	 4	Beds	
No	of	Baths	 4	Baths	
	
	
http://www.zillow.com/homes/recently_sold/Plano/TX/65699878_zpid/53915_rid/33.175491
,-96.513348,32.946741,-96.959668_rect/11_zm/?3col=true
18	
Selling_Price	=			-508091	+	119.67390*3324	+	(-3.79773)*	7187+	3548.00900*	141	+	18242*	4	+	
1392.68477*4	+	150.594663	*	135	=	$461,549	
	
By	 using	 the	 specifications	 of	 the	 house	 as	 mentioned	 in	 the	 above	 link	 in	 our	 regression	
equation	 we	 get	 the	 price	 of	 the	 house	 as	 $461,549	 which	 is	 approximately	 equal	 to	 the	
actual	selling	price	of	the	house	given	on	Zillow	i.e.	$467,500		
5.	Estimation	in	the	Real	world	
5.1	Comparison	between	leading	websites	
	
	
	
Fig11:	Top	10	websites	for	Real	Estate	Pricing	
	
	
Websites	
Attributes	Listed	
Sold	
Price	
Floor	
Size	
Lot	
Area	
Price/	
Sq.	ft.	
No.	of	
Rooms	
No.	of	
Baths	
Built	
In	
	
Zillow	 x	 x	 x	 x	 x	 x	 x	
Movoto	 x	 x	
	
x	 x	 x	
	
Trulia	
	
x	
	
x	 x	 x	 x	
Realtor	
	
x	 x	 x	 x	 x	 x	
RealtyTrac	 x	 x	 x	 x	 x	 x	 x	
	
Table	1:	Comparison	of	attributes	available	on	different	websites
19	
As	per	Table	1	most	popular	real	estate	website	in	US	in	Zillow	followed	by	36	Million	monthly	
visitors	followed	by	Trulia	with	23	Million	monthly	visitors.	Out	of	the	5	websites	researched	for	
study,	only	Zillow	and	Realtytrac	consider	all	the	parameters	that	we	wanted	to	include	for	our	
study.	Realtytrac	is	not	popular	in	the	Real	Estate	industry,	which	is	why	the	Zillow	was	used	for	
our	research	[18][19][20][21].	
5.2	Accuracy	comparison	between	Zillow	and	Trulia	
	
Fig	12:	Accuracy	comparison	between	Zillow	and	Trulia	
	
As	indicated	in	the	Fig	12,	9	out	of	20	times	Zillow’s	Zestimate	has	been	in	the	range	of	(95%	-	
105%)	v/s	Trulia	is	only	5	out	20	times	within	the	range.	This	proves	that	Zillow’s	Estimate	is	
closer	to	the	Sold	price	of	house.		AS	per	study,	Trulia	overestimated	the	price	of	the	house	most	
of	the	times,	as	their	estimates	are	above	110	%	more	than	the	Sold	Price	of	the	house.	Also,	
Trulia	does	not	estimate	the	price	of	the	house	#,	rather	estimates	the	price	of	Zip	code,	which	is	
also	not	very	accurate	[15][18].
20	
	
6.	Observations	and	Conclusions	
	
• Exogenous	 factors	like	 Market	 Size,	 Income/Wealth,	 Prices	of	Substitutes,	 Expectations	
are	convincing	to	support	boom	in	housing	market	of	Collin	County,	specifically	in	Plano.	
This	has	been	confirmed	by	Collin	county	market	report.	
• The	 final	 regression	 equation	 formed	 after	 the	 analysis	 was	 found	 to	 be	 comparable	
(98.72%	 accurate)	 with	 a	 random	 house	 price	 picked	 from	 Zillow.	 According	 to	
Regression	Analysis	the	most	significant	factors	affecting	the	house	price	were	found	to	
be	floor	size,	price	per	sq.ft.	and	age	of	house.	97.6%	variation	in	house	price	is	explained	
by	the	variation	in	the	chosen	factors.	
• Out	 of	 the	 five	 different	 websites	 chosen	 for	 research,	 only	 two	 websites	 Zillow	 and	
RealtyTrac	considers	all	the	factors	for	finding	house	price.	
• When	Zillow	was	compared	with	Trulia,	Zillow	came	out	to	be	more	accurate	than	Trulia	
in	estimating	the	selling	price	of	the	house.	
	
7.	Future	Scope	
	
• This	 study	 can	 be	 extended	 to	 include	 various	 other	 parameters	 (macroeconomic	 and	
industry	related)	that	are	not	considered	right	now,	but	can	be	included	to	find	out	their	
impact.	
• Comparison	studies	can	be	done	comparing	the	Regression	formula	for	Plano	v/s	nearby	
areas?	This	will	help	understand	the	differences	which	factors	are	more	important	within	
nearby	areas.	
• Similar	studies	can	be	extended	to	compare	prices	of	Dallas	with	other	metropolitans	for	
e.g.	New	York,	to	check	which	factors	are	more	important	as	the	city	changes.
21	
8.	References	
• http://homeguides.sfgate.com/causes-housing-prices-rise-united-states-56413.html	[1]	
• http://www.dallasnews.com/business/residential-real-estate/20150723-scorching-
dallas-area-home-prices-mean-tough-summer-market-for-buyers.ece	[2]	
• http://www.dallasnews.com/business/residential-real-estate/20150428-dallas-area-
home-prices-continue-to-soar-at-twice-national-average.ece	[3]	
• http://homeguides.sfgate.com/housing-market-dynamics-future-housing-prices-52296.html	
[4]	
• 	http://homeguides.sfgate.com/housing-market-dynamics-future-housing-prices-
52296.html	[5]	
• http://www.ebizmba.com/articles/real-estate-websites	[6]	
• http://www.homesourcedallas.com/reports/collin-county-real-estate-market-report	[7]		
• http://thefejerangroup.com/tag/collin-county	[8]	
• http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/Supply.html	[9]	
• http://www.davidhoma.com/196570-piy-ch19-01.pdf_275935.pdf	[10]	
• http://isites.harvard.edu/fs/docs/icb.topic1143374.files/Rena__Chap%202.pdf	[11]	
• http://www.txcip.org/tac/census/profile.php?FIPS=48085	[12]	
• http://www.county.org/about-texas-counties/countdata/Documents/towns.html	[13]	
• http://www.realtor.com/local/Plano_TX/lifestyle	[14]	
• http://www.zillow.com/rent-vs-buy-calculator	[15]	
• https://philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/research-rap/2014/house-
price-indexes.pdf	[16]	
• http://www.zillow.com/zestimate/#faq-6	[17]	
• http://www.trulia.com/	[18]	
• http://www.movoto.com/	[19]	
• http://www.realtor.com/	[20]	
• http://www.realtytrac.com/	[21]	
• http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-20-city-composite-home-
price-index/	[22]
22	
9.	Appendix	
	
9.1	Data

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DEMAND PROJECT-Final