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What happens in Japanese Economy and Society? -Recent Trends and Movements from the viewpoint of Anxiety- Toshio Yamauchi Third Secretary, Embassy of Japan May 17, 2006
1. What’s "PM KOIZUMI's Reform"? 2. Deflation, anxiety and Japanese nationality 3. Where do anxieties come from?: Background of deflation spiral 4. For the future: What should Japan do under indelible anxieties? * The views expressed herein are those of the presenter, not representing the official opinions of the Japanese government and  the Embassy of Japan in Poland; all the responsibilities for this presentation attribute to the presenter.
1. What's "PM KOIZUMI's Reform"?
[object Object],[object Object],1-1. What’s is “PM Koizumi’s Reform” ? (1/2) 2005 PMs in Tokyo: Mr. Belka and Mr. Koizumi (Right) (Source) Prime Minister of Japan and His Cabinet Webpage
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1-1. What’s is “PM Koizumi’s Reform” ? (2/2)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1-2. Actions taken as the Reform
[object Object],1-3. Growth Rate, Nikkei 225, Inflation rate Unemployment rate Nikkei 225 Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index (Source) Ministry of Labor, Health and Welfare, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Nikkei (%) (Yen)
2. Deflation, anxiety and Japanese nationality
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2-1. Why has the deflation existed persistently in Japan’s economy?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2-2. Anxiety for the future (1/4)
Q)  Do you have any anxiety for your daily life? 2-2. Anxiety for the future (2/4) (Source) Cabinet Office, “ Public Opinion Survey on National Life, ” June 2005 (%)
Q)  How do you think your life will be in the future? 2-2. Anxiety for the future (3/4) (Source) Cabinet Office, “ Public Opinion Survey on National Life, ” June 2005 (%)
Q) Do you feel anxious about….? 2-2. Anxiety for the future (4/4) (Source) Public opinion polls by Mainichi Press, January 2005 Aging society Social security system
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2-3. Anxiety and Japanese nationality (1/2)
Q) Do you expect….? (Source) Chugoku Press and Gallup, “ Comparative Opinion Survey on the World in the 21 st  century, ” January 2000 2-3. Anxiety and Japanese nationality (2/2) (%)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2-4. Anxiety and expenses cutting (1/5)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],2-4. Anxiety and expenses cutting (2/5)
2-4. Anxiety and expenses cutting (3/5) (Source) Bank of Japan, “ Opinion survey on the General Public’s Mindset and Behavior, ” August 2005 Q)  Has your income increased or decreased, compared in the last year? Q)  Do you think your income will increase or decrease in a year?
Q)  Have you increased or decreased the daily expenses, compared to those in the last year? Q)  Will you increase or decrease the daily expenses in a year? 2-4. Anxiety and expenses cutting (4/5) (Source) Bank of Japan, “ Opinion survey on the General Public’s Mindset and Behavior, ” August 2005
Q)  Why will you decrease the daily expenses? 2-4. Anxiety and expenses cutting (5/5) [Note] Multiple-choice question.  (Source) Bank of Japan, “ Opinion survey on the General Public’s Mindset and Behavior, ” August 2005 Cabinet Office, “ Public Opinion Survey on Attitude of Younger Generation , ” January 2003
3. Where do anxieties come from?: Background of deflation spiral
3-1. Image of “Deflation Spiral” Less expense Lower Price Less income Less disposable income Less sales More cost cuts Less assets value Bursting “Bubble” in 1991 Stock market slump in 2001 More Intensive retail competition during late 1990s More shift to China during late 1990s Lowering base wage, life-time employment collapsed, increasing no. of layoff after 2000s Tax, insurance premiums, medical costs recently up
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3-2. “Bubble” and its burst-out (1/4)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3-2. “Bubble” and its burst-out (2/4)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3-2. “Bubble” and its burst-out (3/4)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3-2. “Bubble” and its burst-out (4/4)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3-3. Conservative consumers and cost cutting (1/5)
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3-3. Conservative consumers and cost cutting (2/5)
[object Object],[object Object],3-3. Conservative consumers and cost cutting (3/5) [Note] Figures show the wage index in a case when that in Yokohama is evaluated as 100.  (Source) Japan External Trade Organization, “JETRO sensor,” April 2004.  Comparison  of Personnel Costs
[object Object],[object Object],3-3. Conservative consumers and cost cutting (4/5) (Source) Japan External Trade Organization,  “JETRO sensor,”  April 2004. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, “ Monthly Labour Survey”   Consumer Price Index Wage Growth Rate (%)
[object Object],[object Object],3-3. Conservative consumers and cost cutting (5/5) (Source) Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, “ Labour Force Survey”   (%) Share of Part-time Jobs
3-4. Dynamic change of personnel management system (1/4) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3-4. Dynamic change of personnel management system (2/4) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3-4. Dynamic change of personnel management system (3/4) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3-4. Dynamic change of personnel management system (4/4) Number of Suicide (Source) National Police Agency Jobless Employee Self-Employed Employer (person)
3-5. Heavier burden of social security (1/5) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3-5. Heavier burden of social security (2/5) Share of the aged people (over 65 years old) to the total population (Source) Ministry of Internal Affairs,  “Monthly Report on Current Population Estimates”
3-5. Heavier burden of social security (3/5) Ratio of the people at the age of 20 to 49 who want to have more children (%) (Source) Cabinet Office,  “International Public Opinion Survey on Children Decrease,”  December 2005
3-5. Heavier burden of social security (4/5) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
3-5. Heavier burden of social security (5/5) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
4. For the future: What should Japan do under indelible anxieties?
4-1. Economic recovery? (1/2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Nikkei 225 during 1995 to 2006
4-1. Economic recovery? (2/2) ,[object Object],Economic Conditions Diffusion Index (D.I.) [Note] D.I. is calculated in the way to subtract  the share of the answer WORSE from that of BETTER.  (Source) Bank of Japan, “ Opinion survey on the General Public’s Mindset and Behavior, ” April 2006 Next year the conditions will be...  Compared with last year, this year’s conditions is… Better Worse ?
4-2. Widening income gap? (1/5) ,[object Object],[object Object]
4-2. Widening income gap? (2/5) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
4-2. Widening income gap? (3/5) Changing Trend of Gini Coefficient (Source) Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare,  “Survey on Income Redistribution,”  1999 and 2002  Original Income Income after redistribution (tax and social security payment)
4-2. Widening income gap? (4/5) International Comparison on Gini Coefficient (Source) Ministry of Internal Affairs,  Website   Australia USA Belgium Japan Canada Sweden France Germany
4-2. Widening income gap? (5/5) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
4-3. What should Japan do? (1/2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
4-3. What should Japan do? (2/2) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Please contact:  Toshio Yamauchi, Third Secretary of Embassy of Japan in Poland ul. Szwolezerow 8, Warszawa 00-464, Poland Tel: 022-696-5033 / E-mail:  [email_address]  or yamautty@hotmail.com

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Deflation2

  • 1. What happens in Japanese Economy and Society? -Recent Trends and Movements from the viewpoint of Anxiety- Toshio Yamauchi Third Secretary, Embassy of Japan May 17, 2006
  • 2. 1. What’s "PM KOIZUMI's Reform"? 2. Deflation, anxiety and Japanese nationality 3. Where do anxieties come from?: Background of deflation spiral 4. For the future: What should Japan do under indelible anxieties? * The views expressed herein are those of the presenter, not representing the official opinions of the Japanese government and the Embassy of Japan in Poland; all the responsibilities for this presentation attribute to the presenter.
  • 3. 1. What's "PM KOIZUMI's Reform"?
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. 2. Deflation, anxiety and Japanese nationality
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. Q) Do you have any anxiety for your daily life? 2-2. Anxiety for the future (2/4) (Source) Cabinet Office, “ Public Opinion Survey on National Life, ” June 2005 (%)
  • 12. Q) How do you think your life will be in the future? 2-2. Anxiety for the future (3/4) (Source) Cabinet Office, “ Public Opinion Survey on National Life, ” June 2005 (%)
  • 13. Q) Do you feel anxious about….? 2-2. Anxiety for the future (4/4) (Source) Public opinion polls by Mainichi Press, January 2005 Aging society Social security system
  • 14.
  • 15. Q) Do you expect….? (Source) Chugoku Press and Gallup, “ Comparative Opinion Survey on the World in the 21 st century, ” January 2000 2-3. Anxiety and Japanese nationality (2/2) (%)
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. 2-4. Anxiety and expenses cutting (3/5) (Source) Bank of Japan, “ Opinion survey on the General Public’s Mindset and Behavior, ” August 2005 Q) Has your income increased or decreased, compared in the last year? Q) Do you think your income will increase or decrease in a year?
  • 19. Q) Have you increased or decreased the daily expenses, compared to those in the last year? Q) Will you increase or decrease the daily expenses in a year? 2-4. Anxiety and expenses cutting (4/5) (Source) Bank of Japan, “ Opinion survey on the General Public’s Mindset and Behavior, ” August 2005
  • 20. Q) Why will you decrease the daily expenses? 2-4. Anxiety and expenses cutting (5/5) [Note] Multiple-choice question. (Source) Bank of Japan, “ Opinion survey on the General Public’s Mindset and Behavior, ” August 2005 Cabinet Office, “ Public Opinion Survey on Attitude of Younger Generation , ” January 2003
  • 21. 3. Where do anxieties come from?: Background of deflation spiral
  • 22. 3-1. Image of “Deflation Spiral” Less expense Lower Price Less income Less disposable income Less sales More cost cuts Less assets value Bursting “Bubble” in 1991 Stock market slump in 2001 More Intensive retail competition during late 1990s More shift to China during late 1990s Lowering base wage, life-time employment collapsed, increasing no. of layoff after 2000s Tax, insurance premiums, medical costs recently up
  • 23.
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. 3-4. Dynamic change of personnel management system (4/4) Number of Suicide (Source) National Police Agency Jobless Employee Self-Employed Employer (person)
  • 36.
  • 37. 3-5. Heavier burden of social security (2/5) Share of the aged people (over 65 years old) to the total population (Source) Ministry of Internal Affairs, “Monthly Report on Current Population Estimates”
  • 38. 3-5. Heavier burden of social security (3/5) Ratio of the people at the age of 20 to 49 who want to have more children (%) (Source) Cabinet Office, “International Public Opinion Survey on Children Decrease,” December 2005
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41. 4. For the future: What should Japan do under indelible anxieties?
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. 4-2. Widening income gap? (3/5) Changing Trend of Gini Coefficient (Source) Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, “Survey on Income Redistribution,” 1999 and 2002 Original Income Income after redistribution (tax and social security payment)
  • 47. 4-2. Widening income gap? (4/5) International Comparison on Gini Coefficient (Source) Ministry of Internal Affairs, Website Australia USA Belgium Japan Canada Sweden France Germany
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. Please contact: Toshio Yamauchi, Third Secretary of Embassy of Japan in Poland ul. Szwolezerow 8, Warszawa 00-464, Poland Tel: 022-696-5033 / E-mail: [email_address] or yamautty@hotmail.com