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Vol. 10, No. 236 December 6, 2012
           The clock is finally and officially ticking on U.S. policymak-
ers regarding mandatory country-of-origin labeling. The U.S. has                                                                               LIVE HOG IMPORTS FROM CANADA
until May of next year to bring the labeling rules on meat into compliance                                                                       Feeder Pigs             Slght Barr's & Gilts           Slght Sows & Boars

with the ruling handed down earlier this year by a WTO Dispute Settle-                                                    Head/Week
ment Body. The WTO arbitrator stated that 10 months from the July 23,                                                     175,000

2012 adoption of the appellate panel’s report was a reasonable time peri-
                                                                                                                          150,000
od for the U.S. to meet the requirements. So May 23, 2013 is the date on
which, if the U.S. is not in compliance, Canada and Mexico may com-                                                       125,000
mence taking retaliatory action against the United States.                                                                                   Incorrect data from APHIS
           A statement from Canada’s Trade Minister, Ed Fast, and Agri-                                                   100,000
culture Minister, Gerry Ritz said, in part, that “The WTO Appelate Body
                                                                                                                            75,000
has recognized the integrated nature of the North American supply chain
and marked a clear win for our livestock industry.” Further, they said they                                                 50,000
were “particularly pleased” that the WTO set a compliance period much
closer to the period requested by Canada than the much longer period                                                        25,000
(18 months) that the U.S. had requested.
           The challenge for American officials is to figure out just how to                                                      -
                                                                                                                                       2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
change the current U.S. rules to meet the WTO ruling. U.S. Trade Repre-
sentative Ron Kirk was quoted by a MeatPoultry.com article saying that
the U.S. remains committed to providing consumers with country-of-origin                                                                       LIVE CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADA
                                                                                                                                                 Feeder Cattle           Slaughter Steers & Heifers            Slaughter Cows
information about meat and poultry (we have no idea why he threw poul-                                                      Head
try into that statement since the U.S. imports practically no poultry prod-                                                 30,000
ucts) but that they would indeed be brought into compliance. Our con-
tacts indicate that federal officials are trying to re-write the rules for                                                  25,000
MCOOL to meet the WTO requirements. Based on our knowledge of the
enabling legislation and the Final Rule which took effect in March 2009,                                                    20,000
we think that will be difficult, meaning that a resolution to this issue would
have to come from Congress in the form of an amended law. And we all                                                        15,000
know how effective Congress is at passing virtually anything these days.
“Small” things like MCOOL — at least they are small in the eyes of DC —                                                     10,000
almost always require some vehicle to carry them through the process.
The Farm Bill would be a logical vehicle for an ag/food issue such as                                                         5,000
MCOOL but action on a Farm Bill does not seem imminent. If a one-year
Farm Bill extension is passed, some other vehicle will have to be found.                                                           -
           MCOOL’s major impact was on the labeling of product de-                                                                      00       01      02      03      04    05      06       07     08       09      10      11      12
rived from imported animals. The differentiation requirements forced
packers to segregate product and, in most cases, handle animals import-                                                                        LIVE CATTLE IM PORTS FROM M EXICO
ed for direct slaughter and animals born in Canada or Mexico and then                                                                                                            Feeder Cattle
fed in the U.S. on specific days. These segregation practices as well as                                                    Head
                                                                                                                            80,000
adding stock-keeping units for the differently labeled product increased
costs. Canadian and Mexican producers have argued that those costs                                                          70,000
were taken out of prices paid for their animals, thus causing economic
harm.                                                                                                                       60,000

           The charts at right show weekly import data for hogs (we only                                                    50,000
bring pigs in from Canada) and cattle with the vertical red line in each
chart indicating the implementation of MCOOL in 2009. MCOOL is obvi-                                                        40,000
ously not the only factor driving imports. Canada’s competitiveness has                                                     30,000
been harmed by the strength of the Canadian dollar. Drought conditions
in Mexico have forced more cattle to U.S. ranches and feedlots. South-                                                      20,000
ern packers market beef from Mexico-born cattle to largely Hispanic mar-
                                                                                                                            10,000
kets. A resolution to the WTO case and better relationships with our
neighbors are both positive outcomes but don’t expect any big changes in                                                           -
imports come May 23, 2013.                                                                                                              00       01      02      03      04    05       06      07      08      09      10      11      12




     The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer and Len Steiner. To subscribe/unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com.
     Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for information purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade any
     commodities or securities whatsoever. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are
     attempted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indication of future performance. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a con-
     tract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money initially deposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their life-
     style. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because a trader cannot expect to profit on every trade.

     CME Group is the trademark of CME Group, Inc. The Globe logo, Globex® and CME® are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. CBOT® is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX,
     New York Mercantile Exchange, and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange. Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. Copyright © 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved.

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Daily livestock report dec 6 2012

  • 1. Vol. 10, No. 236 December 6, 2012 The clock is finally and officially ticking on U.S. policymak- ers regarding mandatory country-of-origin labeling. The U.S. has LIVE HOG IMPORTS FROM CANADA until May of next year to bring the labeling rules on meat into compliance Feeder Pigs Slght Barr's & Gilts Slght Sows & Boars with the ruling handed down earlier this year by a WTO Dispute Settle- Head/Week ment Body. The WTO arbitrator stated that 10 months from the July 23, 175,000 2012 adoption of the appellate panel’s report was a reasonable time peri- 150,000 od for the U.S. to meet the requirements. So May 23, 2013 is the date on which, if the U.S. is not in compliance, Canada and Mexico may com- 125,000 mence taking retaliatory action against the United States. Incorrect data from APHIS A statement from Canada’s Trade Minister, Ed Fast, and Agri- 100,000 culture Minister, Gerry Ritz said, in part, that “The WTO Appelate Body 75,000 has recognized the integrated nature of the North American supply chain and marked a clear win for our livestock industry.” Further, they said they 50,000 were “particularly pleased” that the WTO set a compliance period much closer to the period requested by Canada than the much longer period 25,000 (18 months) that the U.S. had requested. The challenge for American officials is to figure out just how to - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 change the current U.S. rules to meet the WTO ruling. U.S. Trade Repre- sentative Ron Kirk was quoted by a MeatPoultry.com article saying that the U.S. remains committed to providing consumers with country-of-origin LIVE CATTLE IMPORTS FROM CANADA Feeder Cattle Slaughter Steers & Heifers Slaughter Cows information about meat and poultry (we have no idea why he threw poul- Head try into that statement since the U.S. imports practically no poultry prod- 30,000 ucts) but that they would indeed be brought into compliance. Our con- tacts indicate that federal officials are trying to re-write the rules for 25,000 MCOOL to meet the WTO requirements. Based on our knowledge of the enabling legislation and the Final Rule which took effect in March 2009, 20,000 we think that will be difficult, meaning that a resolution to this issue would have to come from Congress in the form of an amended law. And we all 15,000 know how effective Congress is at passing virtually anything these days. “Small” things like MCOOL — at least they are small in the eyes of DC — 10,000 almost always require some vehicle to carry them through the process. The Farm Bill would be a logical vehicle for an ag/food issue such as 5,000 MCOOL but action on a Farm Bill does not seem imminent. If a one-year Farm Bill extension is passed, some other vehicle will have to be found. - MCOOL’s major impact was on the labeling of product de- 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 rived from imported animals. The differentiation requirements forced packers to segregate product and, in most cases, handle animals import- LIVE CATTLE IM PORTS FROM M EXICO ed for direct slaughter and animals born in Canada or Mexico and then Feeder Cattle fed in the U.S. on specific days. These segregation practices as well as Head 80,000 adding stock-keeping units for the differently labeled product increased costs. Canadian and Mexican producers have argued that those costs 70,000 were taken out of prices paid for their animals, thus causing economic harm. 60,000 The charts at right show weekly import data for hogs (we only 50,000 bring pigs in from Canada) and cattle with the vertical red line in each chart indicating the implementation of MCOOL in 2009. MCOOL is obvi- 40,000 ously not the only factor driving imports. Canada’s competitiveness has 30,000 been harmed by the strength of the Canadian dollar. Drought conditions in Mexico have forced more cattle to U.S. ranches and feedlots. South- 20,000 ern packers market beef from Mexico-born cattle to largely Hispanic mar- 10,000 kets. A resolution to the WTO case and better relationships with our neighbors are both positive outcomes but don’t expect any big changes in - imports come May 23, 2013. 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 The Daily Livestock Report is published by Steve Meyer and Len Steiner. To subscribe/unsubscribe visit www.dailylivestockreport.com. Disclaimer: The Daily Livestock Report is intended solely for information purposes and is not to be construed, under any circumstances, by implication or otherwise, as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy or trade any commodities or securities whatsoever. Information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Past results are no indication of future performance. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a con- tract’s value is require to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money initially deposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their life- style. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because a trader cannot expect to profit on every trade. CME Group is the trademark of CME Group, Inc. The Globe logo, Globex® and CME® are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. CBOT® is the trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago. NYMEX, New York Mercantile Exchange, and ClearPort are trademarks of New York Mercantile Exchange. Inc. COMEX is a trademark of Commodity Exchange, Inc. Copyright © 2012 CME Group. All rights reserved.