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![Modelling renewable energy deployment potential
Scenario 4
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without
Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind)
Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%
DECC - 'high DECC - 'high
Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy
[1]
energy prices energy prices prices prices
current rates current rates
(FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI
designed to designed to
give fixed give fixed
return & will return & will
Financial lower than adjust to adjust to
incentives current tariff energy energy
(FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices)
Project
deployment
rate
(wind/biomas 30% (0% for
s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind)
Green policy
support (for
building
integrated
technologies) Low Medium High High
Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 10](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/draftfinaleventcrifpresentation15nov2011finalv2-111115090907-phpapp02/85/Camco-Presentation_CRIF-Event_15th-Nov-11-320.jpg)
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- 1. Cambridgeshire Renewables InfrastructureFramework: How can Cambridgeshire secure £6billion of low carbon energy infrastructure by 2031? Smartlife Centre 15th November 2011 Duncan Price, Director, Camco Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework
- 2. The CRIF projectso far • Cambridgeshire’s renewable energy baseline has been estimated • Cambridgeshire’s renewable energy potential has been assessed, looking at a range of renewable energy technologies • We have canvassed opinion on how to deliver this potential across all sectors – community, public sector and commercial - through a number of workshops • We have developed delivery pathways to identify how key issues/opportunities can be overcome/developed • We will provide an action plan for each sector to help implement these delivery pathways Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 1
- 3. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbonobjectives What is Cambridgeshire's potential? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 2
- 4. Substantial infrastructure isneeded Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 3
- 5. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 4
- 6. Significant investment opportunity Investment potential for each scenario in £millions Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 5
- 7. What is thepotential for each pathway? Deployment potential by pathway 1600 1400 Deployment potential (GWh) Wind >=6 turbines 1200 Wind <=5 turbines 1000 Biomass 800 ASHP 600 GSHP 400 SWH 200 PV 0 Public sector Community Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 6
- 8. Renewable electricity potentialis very large Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 7
- 9. Renewable heat constitutesthe greater challenge Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 8
- 10. Cambridgeshire is progressingwell Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 9
- 11. Modelling renewable energydeployment potential Scenario 4 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 (high without Inputs (low) (medium) (high) wind) Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6% DECC - 'high DECC - 'high Energy price DECC - 'low' DECC - 'high' high' energy high' energy [1] energy prices energy prices prices prices current rates current rates (FIT/ RHI (FIT/ RHI designed to designed to give fixed give fixed return & will return & will Financial lower than adjust to adjust to incentives current tariff energy energy (FIT/RHI) rates current rates prices) prices) Project deployment rate (wind/biomas 30% (0% for s/EfW) 8% 15% 30% wind) Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 10
- 12. Deployment options forrenewable energy Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 11
- 13. S. Cambs andHunts have largest resource Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12
- 14. District heating potentiallies in Cambridge and Huntingdon Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13
- 15. Energy efficiency andrenewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’ Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14
- 16. Conclusions • Cambridgeshire is doing well – especially renewable electricity • There is potential for more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind • All technologies are needed – heat and electricity • Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers by 2031 • Also closes carbon gap to meet pro-rata 4th carbon budget • Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15
- 17. Thanks Duncan Price Renewable energy delivery pathways Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16
- 18. There are threedelivery pathways Community Public Sector Commercial Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17
- 19. Community deployment visionand potential • Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy • Communities have access to a range of funding sources • Communities are maximising learning from leading practice • Communities are managing energy projects effectively • PV • Heat pumps • 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels • 43,000 or 15% of houses • 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 • £140m capex, £75m NPV houses (14%) • Wind • £640m capex, £150m NPV • 75MW or 30 turbines • Solar water heating • £120m capex, £8m NPV • 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%) • £50m capex, £20m NPV Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 18
- 20. Community sector pathway CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 19
- 21. Community sector pathway CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 20
- 22. Community sector pathway CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 21
- 23. Public sector deploymentvision and potential • Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets • Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets • PV • Heat pumps • 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels • 8,100 or 20% of houses • 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 • £40m capex, £23m NPV houses (18%) • Wind • £170m capex, £40m NPV • 27MW or 11 turbines • Solar water heating • £44m capex, £3m NPV • 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%) • £10m capex, £4m NPV • Biomass • 14 installations of 1.5MW Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22
- 24. Public sector pathway CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 23
- 25. Public sector pathway CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 24
- 26. Public sector pathway CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 25
- 27. Commercial deployment visionand potential • Investment opportunities are clearly identified • Public sector is facilitating investment • Investment is flowing, projects being developed • PV • Heat pumps • 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels • 200 or 3% of buildings • 3,200 non-residential buildings • £75m capex, £43m NPV • £720m capex, £165m NPV • Wind • Solar water heating • For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or 11 turbines • 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of buildings • For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150 turbines • £9m capex, £4m NPV • Total capex £660m, £45m NPV • Biomass • 14 installations of 1.5MW Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26
- 28. Commercial sector pathway CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 27
- 29. Commercial sector pathway CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 28
- 30. Commercial sector pathway CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 29
- 31. Vision for communitydelivery pathway • Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy • Effective hard and soft incentive mechanisms • Minimisation of risks and barriers to implementation • Communities have access to a range of funding sources • Availability of applicable finance options for a range of project types • Gaining access to existing and new funding sources • Communities are maximising learning from leading practice • Demonstration case studies of successful community energy schemes • Access to quality impartial ‘self-help’ guidance and information Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 30
- 32. Vision for communitydelivery pathway • Communities are managing energy projects effectively • Identification of governance methods and relative benefits of each approach • Range of delivery options identified • Investment and delivery opportunities are clearly communicated Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 31
- 33. Vision for publicsector pathway • Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets • PV on roofs of offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centres • PV in social housing – own stock, ALMO and with housing association partners • Appropriate wind development on public land • Provision of anchor loads for district heating and CHP • Renewable energy transition plan for each building • Demonstration projects for advanced technologies and new approaches Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 32
- 34. Vision for publicsector pathway • Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets • Planning policies – LDF, LDO, s106, CIL • Enabling mechanisms – community energy fund, grant funding • Public sector led development – de-risking projects, early project promotion • Political engagement – FIT, RHI and Green Deal policy certainty, tariffs, etc. • Market development – awareness raising, pipeline development for Green Deal Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 33
- 35. Vision for publicsector pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 34
- 36. Vision for commercialdelivery pathway • Investment opportunities are clearly identified • Technical, economic and deployment potential based on WP1 • Benefits of growth agenda are articulated • Preconditions are clearly understood by public and private sector + community • Public sector is facilitating investment • Establishing clear public policies and protocols to provide market certainty • Engaging in constructive dialogue with community • Using its own assets to lever wider opportunities Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 35
- 37. Vision for commercialdelivery pathway • Investment is flowing, projects being developed • Cambridgeshire seen as county with good renewable energy development potential • Cambridgeshire demonstrated to be investor-friendly • Supply chain is in place, levels of risk and return meet minimum commercial requirements • Constructive dialogue, community benefiting and accepting Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 36
- 38. Vision for commercialdelivery pathway Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 37
- 39. PV deployment potential CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 38
- 40. Wind deployment potential CambridgeshireRenewables Infrastructure Framework 39
- 41. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbonobjectives Case studies Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 40
- 42. Case study: publicsector • Sustainable Parish Energy Partnership, South Cambs • Network of local voluntary groups; project secured by SCDC • Objective to reduce energy bills, tackle climate change, build a sustainable future • Organises events and initiatives e.g. energy shows, home energy thermal image surveys, working with local businesses, community energy generating projects • Part-time Parish Energy Project Officer organises programme and provides support • No direct costs, application forms, contracts or binding targets to parish councils • How can we build on this to create more community energy projects? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 41
- 43. Case study: publicsector • Decarbonising Cambridge and Carbon Management, Cambridge City • Decarbonising Cambridge Study – forms part of evidence base for RE planning policies • Assessed district heating, biomass, energy from waste, wind, pyrolysis, gasification and anaerobic digestion • Carbon Trust’s Public Sector Carbon Management Plan Programme participation - to cut the Council’s carbon emissions and make ongoing cost savings • Projects form the basis of the CM plan e.g. upgrading boilers, replacing inefficient light fittings, energy awareness campaigns – also renewable energy projects e.g. Renewable Heat Incentive projects Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 42
- 44. Case study: publicsector Wind Energy Policy, Fenlands District Council • Wind energy policy developed 5-7 years ago • Policy was successful - willingness of council members to approve wind development given need to reduce carbon emissions • By 2008-2009, impact on landscape led to interim guidance being produced to inform decisions on wind turbine locations • Now takes into account key criteria e.g. character of landscape, proximity of settlements, visual impact, etc Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 43
- 45. Case study: publicsector • St Neots District Heating, Hunts • Feasibility studied carried out and detailed feasibility now underway • Funding from ERDF and Cambridgeshire Horizons • Aims to provide local benefit – heat to local businesses; potential extension to housing, colleges, housing and central St Neots, possibly Little Barford Power Station • Public sector led – so lower return is possible with lower cost of borrowing • Local enthusiasm for scheme • Hunts already have some experience of DH feasibility – Northstowe • How can the public sector share this knowledge and experience? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 44
- 46. Case study: commercialsector • Ely Straw Burning Power Station, East Cambs • At 38MW, largest straw burning power station in the world; straw is used as fuel to heat water, creating steam to drive turbines • Total cost £55 million - the company did not expect to show a return on this investment for 15 years • Non Fossil Fuel Obligation contract through to 2013 - electricity purchased at 6p/kWh • This security was reassuring for banks when compared with the value of ROCs, which were not guaranteed - but makes new investment under the RO less likely • Waste heat may be used as energy source for adjacent eco village and Elean Data Campus – what can the public sector do to help deliver this? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 45
- 47. Case study: commercial/communitypartnership • Coldham Estate, Fenlands • Standalone turbines • Private ownership • Savings: 38.5 GWh/year - 9,000 UK homes 36,000 tonnes CO2 • Community benefits: Revenue under Section 106 agreement for local projects and regeneration; Fund for education • Community input: The Co-operative Group worked closely with local community during planning and site construction • How we can encourage more commercial/community collaboration? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 46
- 48. Case study: community • Gamlingay Eco Hub and Wind Turbine (planned) • Community building owned by Parish Council with community input; funding from Public Works Loan Board or Community Builders fund • Income from FiT & energy export; reduced energy bills; new community centre • Standalone wind turbine proposed, owned by community group; entirely private investment from residents and businesses • 10% net income to community fund for first 15 years of FiT estimated at £200,000 • How can the public and commercial sectors support more projects like this? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 47
- 49. Case study: community • Waterbeach Biogas (Potential) • Community building • Savings: potential generation of electricity and heat for the Emmaus community; home to 30 people who were formerly homeless. Potential savings of £14,000/year • Community benefits: reduction in energy bills; high savings as not on gas grid (currently bottled gas) Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 48
- 50. Case study: community • Upwell Park Solar PV Installations • Individual households • Private ownership • Funding: Property developer • Savings: 68 tonnes CO2 per year; electricity generated covers lighting and cooking for each of the 67 bungalows • Community benefits: free electricity & FiT income passed to tenants of retirement homes • How can we overcome the proposed changes to the FIT to deliver more schemes like this? Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 49
- 51. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbonobjectives The scale of the challenge Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 50
- 52. Energy efficiency andrenewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’ Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 51
- 53. What could theCRIF help achieve? • Cambridgeshire benefiting from up to £6bn of investment • Shared understanding of barriers and risks to implementation • Local businesses are provide goods and services to the sector • Leading county where people choose to invest • Consistent and pro-active policy framework is adopted • The public sector takes the lead • Action plans for shared decision making Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 52
- 54. Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbonobjectives Action plans Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 53
- 55. Example action plan:public sector Intervention: Using existing buildings as anchor loads Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 54
- 56. Example action plan:public sector Intervention: Using public sector assets for RE generation Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 55
- 57. Thanks Duncan Price Director Camco t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610 e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com 172 Tottenham Court Road London W1T 7NS United Kingdom www.camcoglobal.com Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 56