First delivered at Mark Esposito's Systems Thinking course at Harvard, April 2020.
This talk examines various responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on economic & social impacts (less on the medical side), with the goal of introducing complexity thinking to organisational strategy.
It introduces complexity thinking using Dave Snowden’s Cynefin framework and demonstrates how system loops evolve in the complex domain as a result of safe-to-fail probes. It introduces Simon Wardley’s value chain mapping technique, and shows how organisations can use it to scan for exaptive opportunities as they are making sense of the chaos. Finishes with a still-evolving early view of the macro/mega response of governments, the looming threat of climate change, and the importance of metrics & diversity in system evolution.
How will our economic & social system evolve?
First delivered as a guest speaker at Mark Esposito's System & Complexity Thinking course at Hult University, June 2021.
This talk is aimed at people learning about complex systems with a background in organisational design & management. It looks at the difference between Computational Complexity and Applied Social Complexity, touches on the limits of Computation, Business Processes, & Systems Thinking, and introduces two frameworks that can be used to help organisations understand their current context and navigate more effectively.
Most content in the notes.
This introduction to Strategy with Wardley Maps covers:
* What is Wardley Mapping?
* The Problem & Value of Mapping
* Elements of a Map
* Overview of the Strategy Cycle
* A couple of Climatic Patterns
* Several examples
First run @ Wardley Maps London September 2020 as a talk + workshop. https://www.meetup.com/Wardley-Maps-London
Recording will be posted soon.
It is released CC-by-SA, and is based on Simon Wardley's work available on https://medium.com/wardleymaps
2011 Employer Use and Regulation of Employees in the Virtual WorldCharles Mudd
As employees venture onto virtual worlds for personal and corporate purposes, employers must consider policy implementation in addressing the emergence of employee avatars to protect the employees and the employer, its IP, and other concerns. This slide presentation identifies some of these items to consider. Copyright 2011 Mudd Law Offices.
First delivered as a guest speaker at Mark Esposito's System & Complexity Thinking course at Hult University, June 2021.
This talk is aimed at people learning about complex systems with a background in organisational design & management. It looks at the difference between Computational Complexity and Applied Social Complexity, touches on the limits of Computation, Business Processes, & Systems Thinking, and introduces two frameworks that can be used to help organisations understand their current context and navigate more effectively.
Most content in the notes.
This introduction to Strategy with Wardley Maps covers:
* What is Wardley Mapping?
* The Problem & Value of Mapping
* Elements of a Map
* Overview of the Strategy Cycle
* A couple of Climatic Patterns
* Several examples
First run @ Wardley Maps London September 2020 as a talk + workshop. https://www.meetup.com/Wardley-Maps-London
Recording will be posted soon.
It is released CC-by-SA, and is based on Simon Wardley's work available on https://medium.com/wardleymaps
2011 Employer Use and Regulation of Employees in the Virtual WorldCharles Mudd
As employees venture onto virtual worlds for personal and corporate purposes, employers must consider policy implementation in addressing the emergence of employee avatars to protect the employees and the employer, its IP, and other concerns. This slide presentation identifies some of these items to consider. Copyright 2011 Mudd Law Offices.
A look at digital marketing in the not-too-distant future. From shifting privacy norms, evolving SERPs, the game-ification of everything, social business, and more. Implications and business application included as well.
Nonprofit and Library Technology Trends for 2019TechSoup
Join TechSoup's Jim Lynch for a lively discussion on what tech trends are in store for us in the coming year. You'll hear insights from Jim Lynch himself, as well as what he learned when he interviewed nonprofit and library tech experts about what they thought would be the most important trends of 2019.
This webinar will be relevant to nonprofits, libraries, foundations, and churches. Here is just some of what we'll cover:
- Fundraising challenges in the coming year
- The decline of Facebook
- Security and privacy trends
- Mobile communications
- Bleeding edge tech
- Why 2019 is the year cloud computing will become a necessity rather than an option
In this webinar, we also hope you’ll share your insights on what you expect in the coming year.
ICIS '97 The e-Business of e-Commerce - Question #2Frank Braski
This is from a conference I spoke at related to Dr. Jim Senn at GA State University in Atlanta.
I was keen on the future of the internet and the implications for electronic commerce worldwide. It is interesting to see how much has changed (how quickly) and how much hasn\'t... Bill Gates is right -- We underestimate what will happen in 10 years but over estimate what will happen in 2.
Sldies I proposed for the lecture at CUOA Business School for the 2016 Edition of the Executive Master on ITC - Path Big Data e Social Analytics - http://www.cuoa.it/ita/formazione/corsi-executive/jobleader-big-data-e-social-analytics.php#/
Slides from my talk at the Price Waterhouse Coopers Deals Exchange conference on April 26, 2018. I talk about algorithmically manage, internet-scale networks and how they are changing the very nature of the economy, the shape of companies, and the competencies that are required for 21st century success. There are many similar themes to other talks, but this is tailored to a business audience, and very specifically to one concerned with how to do M&A in an age of dominant platforms.
Digital Transformation in Corporate BankingScopernia
The world of finance and insurance is changing. Digital is impacting every aspect of banking, not just for B2C but also for B2B. This presentation for Belfius Corporate Banking, shows the signs of disruption while offering a framework to deal with digital transformation.
My keynote at the Open Exchange Summit in Nashville on April 18, 2018. I talk about the implications for many different kinds of companies of the fact that increasingly large segments of our economy are being dominated by algorithmically managed network marketplaces.
As organizations move to an environment characterized by cloud computing, the Internet of things, distributed computing, and mobile applications, it will be important to understand where and how these technologies can create value and support procurement decision-making.
Monetization - The Right Business Model for Your Digital AssetsApigee | Google Cloud
As enterprises build and grow their mobile value chain with app, data and API technologies, digital assets become not only a competitive advantage, but also a source of revenue.
Join Anita Paul and Bryan Kirschner as they discuss the opportunities for value creation presented by APIs and data, share monetization models that apply to any industry, and explain how Apigee Monetization Services can help you deliver on the right business model for your digital assets.
We will discuss:
- The business context in the new digital world
- Business use cases and revenue opportunities
- How Apigee Monetization Services changes the game
InsureNXT-Unicorn session_Final 21 April 2021.pdfAlchemy Crew
These slides aim to share within our community the great achievements from unicorns.
The challenges to get there and the opportunities within our insurance world.
Dal riconoscimento facciale al riconoscimento di frodi o difetti di fabbricazione, l'analisi di immagini e video che sfruttano tecniche di intelligenza artificiale, si stanno evolvendo e raffinando a ritmi elevati. In questo webinar esploreremo le possibilità messe a disposizione dai servizi AWS per applicare lo stato dell'arte delle tecniche di computer vision a scenari reali.
Simon Wardley gifted his research & ideas to the world over a decade ago, and he wants society to benefit from them for decades to come.
Let's start a Wardley Mapping Foundation to help him carry the load!
Delivered at Map Camp Use-Case Edition, Nov 2021.
When it comes to showing people how we're organised, we're addicted to the org chart. But they're not actually that good at describing how a company works, beyond who the highest-paid people are. In fact, they tend to create a lot of dysfunction.
There's a better way to organise, and maps are the key.
More Related Content
Similar to COVID-19 - Systems & Complexity Thinking in Action
A look at digital marketing in the not-too-distant future. From shifting privacy norms, evolving SERPs, the game-ification of everything, social business, and more. Implications and business application included as well.
Nonprofit and Library Technology Trends for 2019TechSoup
Join TechSoup's Jim Lynch for a lively discussion on what tech trends are in store for us in the coming year. You'll hear insights from Jim Lynch himself, as well as what he learned when he interviewed nonprofit and library tech experts about what they thought would be the most important trends of 2019.
This webinar will be relevant to nonprofits, libraries, foundations, and churches. Here is just some of what we'll cover:
- Fundraising challenges in the coming year
- The decline of Facebook
- Security and privacy trends
- Mobile communications
- Bleeding edge tech
- Why 2019 is the year cloud computing will become a necessity rather than an option
In this webinar, we also hope you’ll share your insights on what you expect in the coming year.
ICIS '97 The e-Business of e-Commerce - Question #2Frank Braski
This is from a conference I spoke at related to Dr. Jim Senn at GA State University in Atlanta.
I was keen on the future of the internet and the implications for electronic commerce worldwide. It is interesting to see how much has changed (how quickly) and how much hasn\'t... Bill Gates is right -- We underestimate what will happen in 10 years but over estimate what will happen in 2.
Sldies I proposed for the lecture at CUOA Business School for the 2016 Edition of the Executive Master on ITC - Path Big Data e Social Analytics - http://www.cuoa.it/ita/formazione/corsi-executive/jobleader-big-data-e-social-analytics.php#/
Slides from my talk at the Price Waterhouse Coopers Deals Exchange conference on April 26, 2018. I talk about algorithmically manage, internet-scale networks and how they are changing the very nature of the economy, the shape of companies, and the competencies that are required for 21st century success. There are many similar themes to other talks, but this is tailored to a business audience, and very specifically to one concerned with how to do M&A in an age of dominant platforms.
Digital Transformation in Corporate BankingScopernia
The world of finance and insurance is changing. Digital is impacting every aspect of banking, not just for B2C but also for B2B. This presentation for Belfius Corporate Banking, shows the signs of disruption while offering a framework to deal with digital transformation.
My keynote at the Open Exchange Summit in Nashville on April 18, 2018. I talk about the implications for many different kinds of companies of the fact that increasingly large segments of our economy are being dominated by algorithmically managed network marketplaces.
As organizations move to an environment characterized by cloud computing, the Internet of things, distributed computing, and mobile applications, it will be important to understand where and how these technologies can create value and support procurement decision-making.
Monetization - The Right Business Model for Your Digital AssetsApigee | Google Cloud
As enterprises build and grow their mobile value chain with app, data and API technologies, digital assets become not only a competitive advantage, but also a source of revenue.
Join Anita Paul and Bryan Kirschner as they discuss the opportunities for value creation presented by APIs and data, share monetization models that apply to any industry, and explain how Apigee Monetization Services can help you deliver on the right business model for your digital assets.
We will discuss:
- The business context in the new digital world
- Business use cases and revenue opportunities
- How Apigee Monetization Services changes the game
InsureNXT-Unicorn session_Final 21 April 2021.pdfAlchemy Crew
These slides aim to share within our community the great achievements from unicorns.
The challenges to get there and the opportunities within our insurance world.
Dal riconoscimento facciale al riconoscimento di frodi o difetti di fabbricazione, l'analisi di immagini e video che sfruttano tecniche di intelligenza artificiale, si stanno evolvendo e raffinando a ritmi elevati. In questo webinar esploreremo le possibilità messe a disposizione dai servizi AWS per applicare lo stato dell'arte delle tecniche di computer vision a scenari reali.
Simon Wardley gifted his research & ideas to the world over a decade ago, and he wants society to benefit from them for decades to come.
Let's start a Wardley Mapping Foundation to help him carry the load!
Delivered at Map Camp Use-Case Edition, Nov 2021.
When it comes to showing people how we're organised, we're addicted to the org chart. But they're not actually that good at describing how a company works, beyond who the highest-paid people are. In fact, they tend to create a lot of dysfunction.
There's a better way to organise, and maps are the key.
A whirlwind tour of Glasswall Solution’s use of Wardley Maps and experiments with a Service-based operating model. Delivered at Open Security Summit Dec 7th, 2020 as context for a panel discussion, which you can watch here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GS8Vndr-B4A
The original 100-slide deck is available here:
https://open-security-summit.org/tracks/2020/mini-summits/dec/wardley-maps/wardley-maps-and-services-model-at-glasswall/
What do Wardley Maps mean to me? (Map Camp 2020)Steve Purkis
At Map Camp 2020, I was asked to do a short talk on "What Wardley Maps mean to me?", as part of a trio with Sue Borchardt and Kaimar Karu. I'll dig up links to their talks (and Sue's fantastic drawings!) once published.
Here, I touch on how I got started with Wardley Maps in the early days, and what I've been doing with them recently, including:
* Covid as a forcing function
* The impact of Inertia / Apex Predator complacency
* How Glasswall OpenSource is using Wardley Maps
* Cell-based organisational structures with OSOM
* How we're helping Simon's ongoing research on Doctrine
* GCATI's effort to introduce Mapping Standards
* Some links between Cynefin & Wardley Maps
Oh, and I've snuck into the Appendix something on Mapping the UN's Sustainability Development Goals.
Enjoy! :-)
Predicting & Influencing with Kanban MetricsSteve Purkis
Your project’s going off the rails! You’re not sure if you’ll be able to deliver everything the client wants in the time they can afford. Your team is great, but you still can't help the feeling you could be performing better…What do you do?
Don’t wait for it to go wrong to introduce metrics!
In this session, Steve Purkis and Adam Scott will explore some of the Lean Kanban metrics they've used with clients over the past few years. They'll look at how the metrics evolved over time, what worked and what didn't, and show how the metrics were used to predict and influence delivery. This practical talk is based on a wide range of scenarios from real-world experiences and is aimed at both delivery teams and stakeholders looking for ideas on how to encourage the right behaviours to get the best for their organisations.
First presented at P3X in London, Nov 2018.
Map Your Values: Connect & CollaborateSteve Purkis
Why do you get out of bed every day? Why do you go to work? When it comes down to it, what’s really important to you?
Understanding what makes you tick can have a transformative impact on your life, improving your sense of agency and leading a more fulfilling life. Understanding what makes those around you tick can have a transformative impact on your relationships, enabling you to communicate and collaborate more effectively.
In this workshop, you’ll learn how to map your values and practice communicating them effectively to each other. You’ll examine what happens when your values are compromised, prioritise them, and compare them to your organisation’s values. Finally, you’ll consider how you can increase the chances of fulfilling your values.
Participants may want to bring their notebooks, and something to take pictures with.
An overview of Joshua Kerievsky’s "Modern Agile", used to generate some interesting discussion at Agile Ottawa in Feb 2016.
Based on Joshua's work:
* blog: https://www.industriallogic.com/blog/modern-agile/
* webcast: http://leankit.com/blog/2015/12/modern-agile/
This is an introduction to Kanban as a Lean Method, for people new to the idea. Its goals are to demonstrate how Kanban can be used to:
1. Visualise Processes
2. Apply Limits
3. Make Improvements
I prepared it for the Gatineau-Ottawa Agile Tour 2015 (http://goagiletour.ca).
It has a number of activities and is meant to be run as an interactive workshop to engage the audience. Feel free to use it yourself, or contact me if you'd like to arrange a session.
Writing a Space Shooter with HTML5 CanvasSteve Purkis
This talk reviews a Space Shooter game that I wrote to learn about HTML5 canvas. It covers:
* Basics of canvas 2D
* Overview of how the game is put together
* Some performance tips
First presented @ Ottawa JavaScript in September 2012.
TAP::Harness implements the Test Anything Protocol. This talk covers:
* What’s TAP?
* TAP::Harness Overview
* Plugins & Module::Build integration
* Common use cases:
* TAP::Formatter::HTML
* TAP & Hudson CI
Presented at Ottawa.pm, Jan 26 2012.
Specific ServPoints should be tailored for restaurants in all food service segments. Your ServPoints should be the centerpiece of brand delivery training (guest service) and align with your brand position and marketing initiatives, especially in high-labor-cost conditions.
408-784-7371
Foodservice Consulting + Design
Senior Project and Engineering Leader Jim Smith.pdfJim Smith
I am a Project and Engineering Leader with extensive experience as a Business Operations Leader, Technical Project Manager, Engineering Manager and Operations Experience for Domestic and International companies such as Electrolux, Carrier, and Deutz. I have developed new products using Stage Gate development/MS Project/JIRA, for the pro-duction of Medical Equipment, Large Commercial Refrigeration Systems, Appliances, HVAC, and Diesel engines.
My experience includes:
Managed customized engineered refrigeration system projects with high voltage power panels from quote to ship, coordinating actions between electrical engineering, mechanical design and application engineering, purchasing, production, test, quality assurance and field installation. Managed projects $25k to $1M per project; 4-8 per month. (Hussmann refrigeration)
Successfully developed the $15-20M yearly corporate capital strategy for manufacturing, with the Executive Team and key stakeholders. Created project scope and specifications, business case, ROI, managed project plans with key personnel for nine consumer product manufacturing and distribution sites; to support the company’s strategic sales plan.
Over 15 years of experience managing and developing cost improvement projects with key Stakeholders, site Manufacturing Engineers, Mechanical Engineers, Maintenance, and facility support personnel to optimize pro-duction operations, safety, EHS, and new product development. (BioLab, Deutz, Caire)
Experience working as a Technical Manager developing new products with chemical engineers and packaging engineers to enhance and reduce the cost of retail products. I have led the activities of multiple engineering groups with diverse backgrounds.
Great experience managing the product development of products which utilize complex electrical controls, high voltage power panels, product testing, and commissioning.
Created project scope, business case, ROI for multiple capital projects to support electrotechnical assembly and CPG goods. Identified project cost, risk, success criteria, and performed equipment qualifications. (Carrier, Electrolux, Biolab, Price, Hussmann)
Created detailed projects plans using MS Project, Gant charts in excel, and updated new product development in Jira for stakeholders and project team members including critical path.
Great knowledge of ISO9001, NFPA, OSHA regulations.
User level knowledge of MRP/SAP, MS Project, Powerpoint, Visio, Mastercontrol, JIRA, Power BI and Tableau.
I appreciate your consideration, and look forward to discussing this role with you, and how I can lead your company’s growth and profitability. I can be contacted via LinkedIn via phone or E Mail.
Jim Smith
678-993-7195
jimsmith30024@gmail.com
Employment PracticesRegulation and Multinational CorporationsRoopaTemkar
Employment PracticesRegulation and Multinational Corporations
Strategic decision making within MNCs constrained or determined by the implementation of laws and codes of practice and by pressure from political actors. Managers in MNCs have to make choices that are shaped by gvmt. intervention and the local economy.
The Team Member and Guest Experience - Lead and Take Care of your restaurant team. They are the people closest to and delivering Hospitality to your paying Guests!
Make the call, and we can assist you.
408-784-7371
Foodservice Consulting + Design
Comparing Stability and Sustainability in Agile SystemsRob Healy
Copy of the presentation given at XP2024 based on a research paper.
In this paper we explain wat overwork is and the physical and mental health risks associated with it.
We then explore how overwork relates to system stability and inventory.
Finally there is a call to action for Team Leads / Scrum Masters / Managers to measure and monitor excess work for individual teams.
Integrity in leadership builds trust by ensuring consistency between words an...Ram V Chary
Integrity in leadership builds trust by ensuring consistency between words and actions, making leaders reliable and credible. It also ensures ethical decision-making, which fosters a positive organizational culture and promotes long-term success. #RamVChary
Enriching engagement with ethical review processesstrikingabalance
New ethics review processes at the University of Bath. Presented at the 8th World Conference on Research Integrity by Filipa Vance, Head of Research Governance and Compliance at the University of Bath. June 2024, Athens
Org Design is a core skill to be mastered by management for any successful org change.
Org Topologies™ in its essence is a two-dimensional space with 16 distinctive boxes - atomic organizational archetypes. That space helps you to plot your current operating model by positioning individuals, departments, and teams on the map. This will give a profound understanding of the performance of your value-creating organizational ecosystem.
Public Speaking Tips to Help You Be A Strong Leader.pdfPinta Partners
In the realm of effective leadership, a multitude of skills come into play, but one stands out as both crucial and challenging: public speaking.
Public speaking transcends mere eloquence; it serves as the medium through which leaders articulate their vision, inspire action, and foster engagement. For leaders, refining public speaking skills is essential, elevating their ability to influence, persuade, and lead with resolute conviction. Here are some key tips to consider: https://joellandau.com/the-public-speaking-tips-to-help-you-be-a-stronger-leader/
The case study discusses the potential of drone delivery and the challenges that need to be addressed before it becomes widespread.
Key takeaways:
Drone delivery is in its early stages: Amazon's trial in the UK demonstrates the potential for faster deliveries, but it's still limited by regulations and technology.
Regulations are a major hurdle: Safety concerns around drone collisions with airplanes and people have led to restrictions on flight height and location.
Other challenges exist: Who will use drone delivery the most? Is it cost-effective compared to traditional delivery trucks?
Discussion questions:
Managerial challenges: Integrating drones requires planning for new infrastructure, training staff, and navigating regulations. There are also marketing and recruitment considerations specific to this technology.
External forces vary by country: Regulations, consumer acceptance, and infrastructure all differ between countries.
Demographics matter: Younger generations might be more receptive to drone delivery, while older populations might have concerns.
Stakeholders for Amazon: Customers, regulators, aviation authorities, and competitors are all stakeholders. Regulators likely hold the greatest influence as they determine the feasibility of drone delivery.
10. Probe
Sense
Respond
Complex systems are semi-ordered.
Unknown unknowns.
No clear link between cause & effect
(sometimes knowable afterwards).
Interacting with the system can change it.
14. evictions
source: The Guardian
“Buy-to-let lenders have not offered any
assistance to landlords from our experience.
Essential workers are not exempt from such
evictions”
“Estate agents, property management
agents and landlords are very keen to evict
tenants as they need the rent paid in full
during these difficult times”
15. Care for children
during work hours
Go to
daycare
legend
kids parents
home
daycare
landlord bank gov’t
Go to work
invoice
salary
pay
daycare
pay rent
pay bills
pay mortgage
pay tax
charge interest
profit
Daycare System
✘
✘
✘
✘
✘
profit
✘
⚠️
⚠️
⚠️
⚠️
⚠️
16. legend
kids parents
home
daycare
landlord bank gov’t
salary
pay rent
pay bills
defer
mortgage
pay tax
charge interest
survive
Daycare System: Response
profit
⚠️
emergency
support
unemployment
benefits
take care of kids
during work
hours
can’t pay
rent
evict
reduce rent
savings
reduce interest
rates
18. 3 Factors Impacting Corporate Response
There are many more, of course…
Existing Fragility
● Business model
● Supply chain
Cash
● Savings
● Borrowings
● Cashflow
$
Remote-friendly
● Customers
● Workforce
● Processes
19. Evolution
ValueChainvisibleinvisible
Genesis Custom Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
uncharted industrialised
Modal
Digital’s
Value
Chain
Modal’s
Customer
E-commerce Site
E-commerce
Consulting
Hosting
(eg: AWS,
Azure,
Google
Cloud)
E-commerce
Technology
(eg: Magento)User Interface
Customisations
Third Party
Integrations
User Experience
& Interface
Design
Bespoke
Customisations
Technical
Support
Remote-first
workforce
Remote-first
customers
20. Evolution
ValueChainvisibleinvisible
Genesis Custom Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
uncharted industrialised
Modal’s
Customer
E-commerce Site
E-commerce
Platform as a
Service
(eg: SFCC,
Shopify)
competition
standards
competition
& standards
Hosting
(eg: AWS,
Azure,
Google
Cloud)
E-commerce
Technology
(eg: Magento)User Interface
Customisations
future
competitionThird Party
Integrations
User Experience
& Interface
Design
product
add-onsBespoke
Customisations
E-commerce
Consulting
Technical
Support
Modal
Digital’s
Value
Chain
Already
under
threat!
21. Evolution
ValueChainvisibleinvisible
Genesis Custom Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
uncharted industrialised
Modal’s
Customer
E-commerce Site
E-commerce
Platform as a
Service
(eg: SFCC,
Shopify)
Hosting
(eg: AWS,
Azure,
Google
Cloud)
E-commerce
Technology
(eg: Magento)User Interface
Customisations
Third Party
Integrations
User Experience
& Interface
Design
Bespoke
Customisations
E-commerce
Consulting
Technical
Support
Modal
Digital’s
Value
Chain
COVID-19
impact
✘
✘
22. Loss mitigation:
● Furlough employees (gov’t support)
● Cut contracts for unnecessary services
● Debt collection (push clients to pay bills)
Modal’s Response
Scan for Exaptive opportunities.
● What parts of our value chain can we reuse?
● They are using employees as probes!
Watch this space!
Act
Sense
Respond
23. “before human involvement, natural, low-intensity
wildfires occurred every few years to burn up fuel,
plant debris, and dead trees, making way for young,
healthy trees and vegetation to thrive. That new growth
in turn supports forest wildlife.”
- www.worldwildlife.org
24. Prediction: a new wave of more resilient companies
who are less susceptible to cash-flow & supply-chain
shocks.
This talk is heavily influenced by discussions I’ve had in these two networks I’m a part of.
I’m going to:
Introduce Dave Snowden’s Cynefin framework, and show you how it can be used
Introduce Simon Wardley’s value chain mapping technique
Spark a discussion of how the economic & social system may evolve at the macro level
Do do this, I’ll start out with the very small.
COVID-19 plunged us all into Chaos.
In our house, stress levels rose as we:
locked down a couple of weeks before the UK gov’t did.
feared for the lives of our community & loved ones
while trying to figure out what to do with our kids all day at home
and deal with random panic buying and disrupted supply chains (food, not toilet paper)
we kept on trying to work
but worried about how we’ll survive when our companies go bust and we have no income
because somebody would set our local cell tower on fire and the internet would die
all the time watching the value of our investments dropping off the face of a cliff because the stockmarket’s crashed
And then we started making plans.
There’s a reason people panicked. It’s amygdala hijack kicking in to prompt some form of action. Any form of action. It doesn’t really matter what.
(well, that’s not quite true)
In chaotic systems:
You Act first to stop the pain, bleeding, etc.
Then you try and make sense of what’s happened.
Then you decide what to do.
Typically you arrive in the complex domain.
To explain complex:
a simple & relevant example from my personal experience…
We were lucky enough to be able to WFH. with the kids.
Stress levels are high (all the reasons)
Opportunity for my daughter to whinge has never been higher!
Obviously I want her to play rather than whinge.
I tried all the carrots... time for the stick. Funnily enough, it worked!! (but not how you think)
Simple example: Imagine how complicated this diagram would get if I layered on stress of furlough, lack of income, mortgages & landlords losing jobs, lack of excercise, risk of dying.
The whole point of this small example is to show how complex human bahaviour is, even at the micro level.
It constantly evolves
There is no obvious predetermined link between cause & effect
Execute multiple safe-to-fail probes. Learn from the results. Then stop the ones that don’t work, amplify the ones that do.
Thanks to systems & complexity thinking, I’m able to work successfully at home and oversee my kids self-directed homeschooling.
To summarise…
In complex systems:
You execute multiple safe-to-fail Probes first.
Then you try and make sense of them.
Then you decide what to do.
Let's have a look at the micro
We were lucky, many more were not.
Companies filing for bankruptcy
Evictions are on the rise in UK
And presumably elsewhere…
Impacts us directly, as we have a property business in Canada.
One of our tenants operates a home daycare.
explain system
impact of covid-19 lockdown
1. If a tenant can't pay rent, Landlord has 2 options:
Evictions are a reactive Chaos response
Supporting tenants by reducing rent reduces loss of profit
Bank response:
Offer payment holidays (to some)
Keep charging interest!
This should be regulated away for benefit of landlords
3. Reducing interest rates: +’ve, -’ve
4. Governments are being squeezed.
Not a long term solution!
Cash
Strong cash positions → more robust response, less chaotic
Complementing gov’t support by topping up salary of furloughed employees
Weak cash positions → panicked, more chaotic response
High levels of debt lead to insolvency concerns
Workforce not treated as well (layoffs, etc)
Remote-friendliness
Businesses more remote-friendly were in a natural position of strength
Those that weren’t → prolonged chaotic response
Existing fragility
Companies with underlying issues such (Flybe, Debenhams, etc)
Unveiled issues, exacerbated problems
Prolonged chaotic response
Secure
More opportunistic response (complex)
Modal are a perfect company to analyse
They are a “remote-first” company, so ideally positioned to weather the COVID-19 storm!
They have grown into a successful digital agency over the past decade
Value chain mapping is simply a matter of identifying needs, and what those needs depend on.
Their business model is already under threat, due to evolution at several levels of their value chain.
Their customer’s needs have shifted thanks to COVID-19.
reduced demand → loss mitigation behaviour
Speeding up evolution to platforms
Money is like blood to a company. In these times:
You Act first to stop the bleeding.
Then you try and make sense of what’s happened.
Then you decide what to do.
We are living through a forest fire.
I’m banking on there being a new wave of more resilient companies who are less susceptible to system shocks as a result.
There are many interesting signals. I’ve not yet pieced together a full picture.
Values of the societies reflected in government responses.
Italy suspended capitalism to protect its people.
America’s leaders reluctantly locked down and are actively looking for ways to reopen.
1. Many worry gov’t are offering less support to people than firms.
Concerns that bailout money given to firms will just be used to pay dividends, like in the GFC
Tesco defends £635m dividend payout after coronavirus tax break
2. Growing calls for UBI (The Independent).
Academics, politicians (SNP), NGOs, even Pope Francis - once left, not center
3. On the other hand, you have protestors fighting the lockdown
Back to work: my economic freedom at risk ≥ vs pandemic slavery
Protesters gather at Minnesota governor's mansion over lockdown, chant 'open up'
Trump’s ”Liberate Virginia” tweet, supporting 2nd amendment.
4. All this with the looming threat of climate change impacting millions more lives than COVID-19 is likely to.
Valdis Krebs points out…
… not within the nodes.
Diversity of connections improves quality of evolution.
We tend to gather in small groups of like-minded people. Need to find ways to change that. Connect.
Regardless of your political views.
As Eliyahu Goldratt (theory of constraints) teaches us…
They are an attractor.
Money represents human value, it doesn’t define it.
Value is much more complex than that.
Exercise:
Future Backwards session in Trios
(With people you’ve never worked with!)
At a Macro scale, discuss & map what likely heaven / hell scenarios will emerge in a post COVID-19 world?