- India has been gradually increasing its COVID-19 testing capacity, reaching over 335,000 total tests by April 18th compared to just 179,000 a week prior. However, testing per million people remains relatively low at 243. - The government claims a 40% reduction in the growth rate of new virus cases during the lockdown period, with the average growth rate declining from 2.1% before April 1st to 1.2% since then. - Some states like Rajasthan, Telangana, and Kerala have seen declining case growth rates, while others like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir have seen increases. - Regional success stories in containing the virus have emerged

1. COVID-19 DATA OF INDIA ??
DO WE SEE ACCURATE PICTURE?
UPDATED ON 18TH APRIL 2020
VIVEK ANAND

2. ON 11TH APRIL.. I HEARD FROM A DEAR
FRIEND THAT DATA IN INDIA IS NOT TRUE!!
• SINCE LAST WEEK, I AM PUTTING SOME EFFORTS TO LET MY FRIENDS KNOW
THAT WHATEVER YOU ARE HEARING FROM INDIA IS INDEED TRUE (MAY BE NOT
SO ACCURATE, BUT TRUE PICTURE!!), FIRST VERSION WAS PREPARED ON 12TH
APRIL AND NOW UPDATRED TODAY ON 18TH APRIL
• WHAT I AM TRYING TO ADDRESS IS COMMON CONCERNS ABOUT :
• WHETHER WE ARE DOING THE RIGHT AMOUNT OF TESTING ? WHAT IS THE BASIS?
• ARE WE TAKING CARE OF INCREASE IN NO. OF CASES WITH INCREASE IN TESTING?
• WHY IS THERE A STREAK OF POSITIVITY IN GOVERNMENT MACHINERY WHEN NO. ARE
INCREASING

3. SOURCES
• MOSTLY NEWS ARTICLE IN INDIAN NEWSPAPERS
• SOME OTHER SITES
• BUT EVERYTHING IS HANDPICKED
• SO LETS BEGIN FIRST WITH SITUATION AS OF TODAY (SUNDAY – 12 APRIL 2020)
• THINGS IN ITALICS ARE MY VIEWS

4. DATA
• ULTIMATE TRUTH – DEATH
• DEATH DATA IS VERY DIFFICULT TO HIDE ( AND THERE IS GENERAL AWARENESS
IN ALL OF INDIA ABOUT WHOSOEVER IS HAVING SEVERE RESPIRATORY ISSUES
NEEDS TO GO FOR COVID TESTING)
• LETS LOOK AT THE GUIDELINES FROM ICMR ON HOW MANY TESTS NEEDS TO BE
DONE

5. ICMR GUIDELINE ON 20TH MARCH

6. AND HOW THESE HAVE BEEN BROADENED

7. “
”
HAVING CHOSEN OUR CALIBRATED STRATEGY
OF INCREASING TESTING IN A SCIENTIFIC WAY
(AND TRUST ME, WE IN INDIA ARE NOT
DOUBTING WHETHER GOVERNMENT IS GOING
AFTER ALL THESE CHOSEN CATEGORIES!!) SO
HOW IS ALL THIS TRANSLATING
IS IT COMPARABLE TO OTHER COUNTRIES
WHERE ARE WE GOING GOOD, WHERE ARE WE GOING BAD

8. GLOBAL DATA OF TESTS AS ON 12TH APRIL
Positive for India
that the covid
positive % is very
low
negative for India that the covid
testing % is very low but we have
explained calibrated approach of
ICMR

9. DATA ON 18TH APRIL
TESTS INCREASED TO 335,123 (A WEEK AGO –
179,374) AND TEST PER MILLION OF POPULATION
TO 243 ( A WEEK AGO 133)

10. NEXT SET OF QUESTION
• YAH ABOVE IS DATA, BUT WHETHER THESE TESTS SHOWN EARLIER ARE
ACTUALLY MATCHING THE STRATEGY OF ICMR?

11. TESTING- WHAT HAS BEEN THE TREND
• APRIL 12
• FROM 1200 TESTS PER DAY IN 75 LABORATORIES ,
COMPRISING A TOTAL OF 15,000 TILL MARCH 20
• TESTING EXPANDED TO 7,800 TESTS PER DAY IN 190
LABORATORIES , 77000 TOTAL BY APRIL 2
• 15,000 TESTS ARE NOW BEING DONE PER DAY WITH 1.79
LAKH TESTS DONE TILL APRIL 11
• (DEATH RATE IN INDIA IS ABOUT 3 % AND RECOVERY RATE
IS ABOUT 12%)
• WE HAD 1 TESTING LAB ON JAN 31, WE HAVE 220 BY
APRIL 10
• BY APRIL 30 - INDIA PLANS TO HAVE 300 TESTING LABS IN
PLACE
• APRIL 18
• AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN REPORT
NOW INDIA HAS DONE 335,123 TESTS
BY APRIL 18
• DAILY DATA FOR 16TH APRIL WAS
28,340 TESTS ON THAT DAY AT 183
GOVT LABS AND 80 PRIVATE LABS

12. GOVERNMENT IS IN A POSITIVE STATE OF
MIND BECAUSE
• CGR OVER 5 DAYS WAS DECLINING IN SEVERAL
STATES
• RAJASTHAN CAME DOWN FROM A CGR OF 33.6%
ON MARCH 20 TO 21% BY APRIL 10 (THOUGH
NO. OF CASES ROSE FOR 17 TO 463)
• TELANGANA CGR FROM 41.5% TO 24.5% DURING
THE SAME PERIOD (THOUGH CASES ROSE FROM
17 TO 473)
• KERALA - CGR WENT DOWN FROM 4.9% TO 3.9 %
• THOSE WERE CGR HAS INCREASED IS
• PUNJAB - 14.9 % TO 20.2% (2 TO 132)
• UTTAR PRADES -FROM 12.1 % TO 19.9% (23 TO
431)
• J&K ( 14.9% TO 19.7%)
• APRIL 18
• GOVT HAS CLAIMED THAT THERE IS 40%
REDUCTION IN GROWTH OF VIRUS CASES
DURING LOCKDOWN
• BEFORE LOCKDOWN NO. OF CASES DOUBLED
IN 3 DAYS, LAST WEEK IT HAS TAKEN 6.2 DAYS
TO DOUBLE
• AVERAGE GROWTH RATE OF 1.2 SINCE APRIL1,
IT WAS 2.1 FOR 2 WEEKS (MAR 15-MAR 31)
• 19 STATES AND UTS ARE SHOWING A
DOUBLING RATE OF BETTER THAN NATIONAL
AVERAGE

13. IS GOVERNMENT SEGMENTING PROPERLY?
• BY APRIL 10, GOVT HAS LIST OF 142
HOTSPOTS
• 60 DISTRICTS HAD MORE THAN 15
CASES EACH - CATEGORY - LARGE
OUTBREAK CONTAINMENT ZONES
• 82 DISTRICT HAD LESS THAN 15
CASES EACH - CATEGORY - CLUSTER
CONTAINMENT ZONES
• APRIL 16
• 1 IN 5 DISTRICTS IN INDIA A
HOPSTPOT
• 170 OUT OF 736 DISTRICTS (GROWN
FROM 142)
• DEFINITION AS MENTIONED IN LEFT
COLUM

14. ARE WE PREPARING OURSELVES
• APRIL 12
• AS OF NOW 586 DEDICATED COVID 19
HOSPITALS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
WITH 1.04 LAKH ISOLATION BEDS,
11,800 ICU BEDS AND 6,400
VENTORALTORS
• THERE ARE 2.84 LAKH PERSONAL
PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENTS KITS AND 2.7
LAKH EXPECTED BY APRIL 30
• 28.52 LAKH N95 MASKS WITH
ANOTHER 48.52 LAKH EXPECTED BY
MONTH END
• APRIL 18
• 672 DEDICATED (TOTAL 1919)
COVID-19 HOSPITALS
• DEDICATED 107,8306 (TOTAL
173746)ISOLATION BEDS
• DEDICATED 14,742 (TOTAL 21,806)
ICU BEDS

15. DO WE HAVE SOME INTERNAL MODELS OF
EXCELLENCE? ( FROM NEWSPAPER REPORTS
TILL APRIL 12)
• THERE IS A FAMOUS BHILWARA MODEL IN RAJASTHAN (ONE OF MY CLOSE
FRIENDS SHARED THE NEWSPAPER REPORT ABOUT IT, BUT DID NOT GET TIME TO
BRING IT HERE FOR TIMEBEING)
• BUT FURTHER MORE MODELS HAVE EMERGED

16. MODEL OF KERALA AND AGRA

17. PATHANAMTHITTA DISTRICT MODEL
• FIRST CASE IN EARLY MARCH – 3 MEMBER ITRALY RETURNED FAMILY AND THEIR RELATIVES TESTED POSITIVE
• COUNT WENT UP TO 16
• THIS DISTRICT SEALED ITS BORDER
• SCREENED ALL ENTERING DISTRICT FROM OVERSEAS, OTHER STATES AND EVEN OTHER DISTRICTS
• DETAILS OF THOSE WHO ENTERED FROM ABROAD SINCE JANUARY WERE ADDED TO THE DATABASE
• ROUTE MAPS OF POSITIVE CASES WERE PREPARED
• A FLOW CHART WAS PUBLICIZED TO HELP PEOPLE SEE IF THEY HAD BEEN PRESENT AT A STATED TRAVEL PATH AT A PARTICULAR TIME
• AFTER THE CHART WAS PUBLISHED, MORE PEOPLE COULD BE TRACED, AND MANY VOLUNTARILY REPORTED
• A CALL CENTER WAS LAUNCHED FROM WEHRE ENQUIRIES WERE MADE TWICE DAILY TO THOSE UNDER QUARANTINED
• 14 TEAMS MONITORED 4000 ROAD AND RAIL ENTRANTS ON A DAILY BASIS
• ENGINEERING STUDENTS OF IHRD COLLEGE DESIGNED A CORONA RM APP WHERE THE CALL CENTER COUNSELLORS WOULD UPLOAD REQUIREMENTS OF THOSE UNDER HOME QUARANTINE
• KEY WAS RIGHT POPULATION SAMPLOING
• UNION CABINET SECRETARY RAJIV GAUBA SAID THAT THE STRATEGY ADOPTED WAS WORTH EMULATING

18. AGRA MODEL-12 APRIL NEWSPAPER REPORTS
• AGRA – 2 PEOPLE WHO HAD TRAVELLED TO AUSTRIA ALONG WITH A RESIDENT OF DELHI’S MAYUR
VIHAR TRAVELLED BACK HOME TO AGRA IN EARLY MARCH
• CONFIRMATION FROM AIRPORT OF POSITIVE CASES CAME AT 2 AM
• IMMEDIATELY INTEGRATED DISEASE SURVEILLANCE PRGRAMME TEAM CREATED A 3 KM RADIS
AROUND THE HOUSE AND WAS SEALED AND 59 TEAMS WERE FORMED OF 2 MEMBERS EACH
• COVERED 1.63 LAKH HOUSEHOLDS IN FEW DAYS
• TOOK ABOUT 1000 SAMPLES
• EACH TEAM COVERED 100 HOMES PER DAY
• DOCTORS SATA ATA NEARBY CIVIL DISPENSARY AND PEOPLE WHO SHOWED SYMPTOM COULD VISIT
THEM
• SMART CITY INTEGRATED WITH COMMAND AND CONTROL CENTERS USED AS WAR ROOMS

19. ODISHA – 18TH APRIL
• FIRST CASE ON 15 MARCH
• 60 POSITIVE TILL NOW, 1 DEATH
• 21 OF 30 DISTRICTS YET TO REPORT A CASE
• 2000 SAMPLES ON 14TH AND 15TH APRIL – ZERO POSITIVE
• TOTAL 7577 TESTS , 60 POSITIVE, 19 CURED
• 24 DEDICATED COVID HOSPTIALS
• LOCKDOWN IMPOSED SOON AFTER 1ST CASE
• DISTRICT COLLECTORS FED MIGRANT WORKERS AND WATCHED THEM FOR COMMUNITY SPREAD
• INDIVIDUALS COMING FROM ABROAD OR OTHER STATES KEPT IN VILLAGE PACHATYAT AND DISTRICT LVEL ISOLATION FACILITIES FOR 2 WEEKS
• LEVERAGED EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ESTABLISHED TO MITITAGE THE IMPACT OF FREQUENT FLOODS AND CYCLONES
• PLANS TO CONDUCT 5000 TESTS ALONE IN BHUBANESHWAR NEXT WEEK

20. COMING BACK TO TESTING, IS THERE ANY OTHER
IMPORTANT NEWS THAT MAY HAVE IMPACT ON
NO. OF TESTS (FROM 12 APRIL REPORTS)
• YES, SUPREME COURT HAS RULED THAT TESTING SHOULD BE FREE
• AND YES, SOME OF OUR CONSIGNMENTS OF TESTING KITS NOT REACHING US,
THEY ARE REACHING YOU, MY FRIENDS
• AND ALSO SOME MEDICINES WE ARE SHARING
• SO WE ARE ON A DECENT FOOTING HERE, WE WILL TAKE CARE, AND DATA IS
TRUE PICTURE, IF NOT ACCURATE

21. IF SC AGREES TO RE LOOK AT ITS RULING…

22. YOU KNOW WHERE THEY ARE GOING!!

23. CHEERS GUYS
SEE YOU SOON!! NOT LATER THAN NEXT WEEK!!