Slides from presentation given at the Universities Transport Study Group 2013 conference held at Oxford University in January.

1. 'Corridors of uncertainty: information,
technology and planning for secure
and confident travel by public
transport’
K. Pangbourne and M. Beecroft, Centre
for Transport Research, University of
Aberdeen
Paper for UTSG 2013
http://www.pitchvision.com/how-to-exploit-batting-weaknesses-open-stance

2. Structure of Paper
• About the project
• Work Package 1
• Conceptualising
personal security
• SWOT and STEEPL
analysis
• The scenarios
• Expert interviews
• Conclusions
• Next steps

3. About the project
• Focus: interaction between technology and user
needs in supporting personal security in travel on
public transport.
• Aim: develop fundamental understandings of this
interaction and enable transport technologies to
better support personal security
• Approach: five scenario workshops looking at four
application areas and the implications of the
developed narratives; expert interviews

4. WP1: provision of public transport traveller
information
Information
Type
Journey options (modes, tickets, routes)
Getting to and from vehicles
In transit (next stop, delays)
Public information (safety, crime messages)
Way-finding (labels, maps, direction signs, sat-nav)
Delivery
Medium
Providers/sources of
information
Transport operators
Transport authorities
Ticket agencies
Tourism and destination
promoters
Internet innovators (apps,
APIs, websites)
Word of mouth
Human, Printed,
Broadcast, Digital
Technological
innovation
New technologies/media
Smart vehicles
Intelligent Transport Systems
Smart ticketing
Personalised information
Security
(biometrics, CCTV, RDIF)
Mobile communications
Gadgets (QR codes, NFC)
Social Media
Big data

5. Actual Crime/anti-social behaviour and Perceptions based on fear of crime
Crime (1)
Fear of Crime (A)
“Encountering anti-social behaviour can be as
bad as encountering crime”
“Older people often perceive the risk of crime
as being more significant than it is in reality,
but it does impact on their confidence in using
public transport”
Actual confidence levels and extent and the fear of accidents
Confidence (3)
Fear of Accidents (or discomfort) (B)
“From non-users the perception is very
negative, but regular PT users have a more
realistic view of the situation”
“Night services can be daunting to use in some
areas”
“Older people, who have a bad experience on
public transport, e.g. falling on a bus, will be
much less likely to use it in the future. The
consequences for them are more severe”
Real safety issues, and perception of risks to safety from crime/anti-social behaviour
Safety (2)
Perceived risks to safety (C)
“Falls on buses are a major cause of
injuries and undermines travellers
confidence - alternative travel options or
not at all. Elderly find themselves
stranded and isolated unless using private
“Don’t forget multi-storey car parks. One
of the worst I saw (several years ago) was
that provided for Tyne and Wear metro
users – dank, dark, graffiti and an
appalling smell in the stairwells!”

6. Conceptualising personal security

7. High quality, innovative RTI already exists
RTI is reassuring
Cost-benefit of RTI is being demonstrated
Education and crime prevention initiatives do work
Successful innovations with social media
A lack of cross-modal RTI
Accessibility of RTI and other forms of travel information
Geographic differences in provision and consistency of
RTI
Complex fares and networks makes RTI provision more
difficult
Lack of integration/coordination between sources of
data
Responsive security technology feasible, but full
enforcement is costly
Ability to change perceptions and counter urban myths
Adapting journeys on the move
Weaknesses
Learn from existing good practice and from other sectors,
such as tourism
Think of the whole journey from the customer perspective
Open data
Social media and crowd-sourcing
Integrate RTI with higher design standards for interchange
and public spaces
Improve management and provision of information during
disruption
Education about acceptable standards of behaviour on PT.
High tech innovation could threaten continuing provision of
low tech information measures, when many customer groups
will continue to need them.
Lack of clarity in payment for and ownership of data
Cost of staffing and training for operators to properly adopt
social media
Intrusive securitisation of transport as a result of extreme
incidents
Unfundable higher expectations of RTI
More expensive PT increases social inequity and reduces
personal security
Failure to address erroneous perceptions of risk
Impact of increased disruption
Threats
Opportunities
Strengths
SWOT ANALYSIS

8. STEEP(L) Analysis
•Environmental
Social
Technological
•
•
•
•
•Pace of change
•CLIMATE CHANGE!
• Ubiquitous, pervasive technos •LEVs
• Internet of things
•Energy demands
• Security vs Privacy
Peak car
Demographic trends
Teleworking
Social polarisation
Economic
•
•
•
•
Value of time
Smart payment methods
Alternative energy
economy
Employment patterns
Political
Legal/Regulatory
• Acceptability of transport
subsidy
• Political responses to
terrorism and cyber-attack
• City-regional devolution and
localism
•Passenger led performance
monitoring
•Integration of regional level
systems & services

9. Scenarios
WORLD MARKETS
Keywords: Individualism, material
wealth, mobility, global
markets, international
policy, privatisation, minimal
government.
Governance: interdependence
GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITY
Keywords:
Community, environment, active public
policy and international cooperation, highly regulated markets.
Individual values
NATIONAL ENTERPRISE
Keywords: Individualism, material
wealth, national self-reliance and
cultural identity, fragmented world.
Adapted from Berkhout and Hertin (2002), SPRU
Foresight Futures Framework to 2020
Community values
LOCAL STEWARDSHIP
Keywords: Environment, localism, social
regulation of markets, small-scale
economies, participative governance.
Governance: autonomy

10. World Markets
•
International & long distance domestic travel ▲
•
MNCs dominate journey planning services market
•
Car is king!:
• infrastructure, facilities and services for car access to PT
• traveller information for car access to PT
•
Information provision ▼ (if no commercial benefit)
•
Decreasing confidence + narrower travel horizons for many
•
Increasing role for DRT
•
Data security and target hardening are major issues
•
Limited role for social media and open data

11. Global Responsibility
• Akin to current Scandinavian socio-governmental
model
• Social value of PT recognised and funded by tax
• Disruptive radicals rare, but dangerous due to social
trust
• Open data reliance vulnerable to cyber attacks
• Minority groups supported in PT service and
information provision increasing use
• Active travel and PT preferred for local trips
• Data heavy, integrated, multi-modal transport
networks
• Active social media + supportive technos support PT
use

12. National Enterprise
• Fragmented PT & info services - ‘homeland’ security
priority
• Investment in national infrastructure: m’way & rail
networks, key interchanges, borders & international
gateways.
• IT and related services developed at national level.
• De-regulated service provision affords little protection
• Information critical in society - quality varies by ability
to pay
• Mobile ‘travel buddies’ in absence of community spirit
• Surveillance society - ID Card to access/pay for PT
• Little social media & open data - official providers
favoured

13. Local Stewardship
• Mostly local journeys – more active travel
• ▲ cycling & walking infrastructure, info + PT
integration
• Range of models of cycle ownership and use
• DRT for mobility-impaired (local PT ▼ as active
travel ▲)
• Technology used to support home-working
• longer distance travel▼, but good info:
– Local broadcast media provide RTI in locality
– DAB pushes this to geo-located mobile devices
• Community oriented, local lifestyles crime ▼ but
cycle crime▲

14. Expert Interviews: better assurance from technologies
(Real-time) information as assurance
“visitors and infrequent users generally pre-plan what they are trying to do but when
they get to the stop or location, ... that information gives them assurance,
confidence that actually it’s working. So that’s the personal security, personal
safety, in the fact that we don’t want people ... waiting for a bus at two o’ clock in
the morning when it’s never arriving ... that [also] gives an assurance that if they
haven’t pre-planned they get to a bus and it’s not working or something is
happening, they know what is happening.” (WP1EP4)
Mobile technology: game changer for rural areas through low cost assurance?
“we ... don’t [put] in new technology or new information streams for security purposes
but certainly for assurance purposes so [QR codes and NFC] is something we’ve put
in for that. You don’t have to be at the stop to use it, once you’ve used it at the stop
you store it in your ... As soon as you get it onto the Smartphone ... you can
expand – we regularly discuss how we’re going to get fare information on the bus
stops and there’s a lot of issues with that ... a fare table is quite complicated and it
adds another dimension that your publicity can go out of date and the cost of
[updating it] but once it’s electronic …” (WP1EP6)

15. Expert Interviews: needs as skills change
Internet search literacy
Travel information literacy
“When we were first developing
Transport Direct the notion of
portal was very strong in web
parlance, it was pre-Google, ...
putting everything in one
place ... people are now their
own integrators, they take a
bit from this website, solve
that problem, there’s another
site that they prefer to solve
another problem and they join
the bits together.” (WP1EP2)
“my [16 yr old] daughter really
doesn’t know how to use
timetables very well because
she looks up train times online
... she specifies when she’s
going ... and she gets a
tailored response, it is a
timetable but it’s a tiny part of
a larger timetable ... although
there are lots of gains with
new technology, there are also
some losses” (WP1EP5)

16. Expert Interviews: inclusiveness
Dangers from rapid innovation
“if you were carrying out any segmentation, age would be
really significant and within that, somewhere around thirtyfive to sixty age group, there probably is a lot of variation
depending on uptake of technology.” (WP1EP5)
Training to increase confidence with particular groups
“There’s lots of travel training schemes out there. But we want
to encourage more of those... . How can you give people
confidence to travel, how can you build up their travel
horizons and so on?” (WP1EP1)

17. Next Steps
Coping with disruption
workshop
Automation and flexible
transport workshops
• Completed
• Successfully utilised
scenario narratives from 1st
workshop
• Developed richer insights
focused on disruption
• 4th/5th February 2013
• Will also utilise scenario
narratives from 1st
workshop
• Aim to develop rich insight
on automation and flexible
transport respectively
Final workshop will bring the original narratives together with the rich
pictures of the three specific application areas. Participants will consider
unintended consequences of securitisation technologies and discuss the
desirability of different aspects of the four narratives. This will be used to
identify future research opportunities and policy recommendations.

18. Conclusions
Key conclusions: now
Key drivers: future
•
Information is a major source of
confidence and reassurance when
travelling
•
•
Information provision: where
technology and users interact
•
•
Advances in quantity of information
– Open Data
– Mobile platforms
•
•
Issues in quality of information
– Provenance and trust
– Management of data
– Supporting certain user types
•
•
Social change
– Travel demand
– Demographic change
Technology
– Speed of change and take up
Economy
– Energy resources
– Budget constraints
Environment
– Impact of climate change
Politics and Regulation
– Attitudes to securitisation
– Type and regulation of future PT

19. Thank you!
Contact details
• Kate Pangbourne: k.pangbourne@abdn.ac.uk
• Mark Beecroft: m.beecroft@abdn.ac.uk