This document summarizes a research paper that examines how corporate tax policy impacts the location choices of foreign direct investment (FDI) in EU countries. The paper uses a nested logit model to analyze new FDI projects from 2002-2014. It finds that lower corporate tax rates increase attractiveness to FDI, and that investors from outside the EU are more sensitive to tax rates than intra-EU investors. The sensitivity of location choices varies across sectors and countries.
NERI Seminar Dublin: How much would a Financial Transactions Tax raise?NevinInstitute
In 2011 the European Commission outlined proposals for a Europe wide financial transactions tax (FTT). Since then the proposal has been pursued by ten countries under ‘enhanced cooperation’ procedures with plans evolving to introduce the tax during 2016/2017. To date Ireland has not signed up to adopting a FTT.
This paper estimates the revenue that Ireland would collect from participating in the European FTT. Drawing on data from official sources, it first establishes the size of the FTT tax base for Ireland. Subsequently, the paper estimates a baseline tax revenue and considers the robustness of this estimate using a suite of sensitivity tests.
The paper finds that were Ireland to adopt a FTT, the net revenue yield would be between €320m and €360m per annum.
In Zimbabwe, horticulture is the fifth largest contributor to agricultural GDP, behind tobacco, maize, cotton and beef subsectors. Zimbabwe has a diverse horticultural subsector and most of the producers are small scale farmers.
NERI Seminar Dublin: How much would a Financial Transactions Tax raise?NevinInstitute
In 2011 the European Commission outlined proposals for a Europe wide financial transactions tax (FTT). Since then the proposal has been pursued by ten countries under ‘enhanced cooperation’ procedures with plans evolving to introduce the tax during 2016/2017. To date Ireland has not signed up to adopting a FTT.
This paper estimates the revenue that Ireland would collect from participating in the European FTT. Drawing on data from official sources, it first establishes the size of the FTT tax base for Ireland. Subsequently, the paper estimates a baseline tax revenue and considers the robustness of this estimate using a suite of sensitivity tests.
The paper finds that were Ireland to adopt a FTT, the net revenue yield would be between €320m and €360m per annum.
In Zimbabwe, horticulture is the fifth largest contributor to agricultural GDP, behind tobacco, maize, cotton and beef subsectors. Zimbabwe has a diverse horticultural subsector and most of the producers are small scale farmers.
EU: Lasers, Other than Laser Diodes – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to...IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “EU: Lasers, Other than Laser Diodes - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020”. This report focuses on the EU laser market, providing a comprehensive analysis and the most recent data on its market size and volume, EU trade, price dynamics, domestic production, and turnover in the industry. The market trends section reveals the main issues and uncertainties concerning the industry, while the medium-term outlook uncovers market prospects. The attractivity index (IB Index) summarizes the source of existing opportunities as they appear in this market, as well as an interpretation of the trade figures.
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IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “EU: Diodes, Other than Photosensitive or Light Emitting Diodes - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020”. This report focuses on the EU diode market, providing a comprehensive analysis and the most recent data on its market size and volume, EU trade, price dynamics, domestic production, and turnover in the industry. The market trends section reveals the main issues and uncertainties concerning the industry, while the medium-term outlook uncovers market prospects. The attractivity index (IB Index) summarizes the source of existing opportunities as they appear in this market, as well as an interpretation of the trade figures.
EU: Radio Receivers - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “EU: Radio Receivers - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020”. This report focuses on the EU radio receiver market, providing a comprehensive analysis and the most recent data on its market size and volume, EU trade, price dynamics, domestic production, and turnover in the industry. The market trends section reveals the main issues and uncertainties concerning the industry, while the medium-term outlook uncovers market prospects. The attractivity index (IB Index) summarizes the source of existing opportunities as they appear in this market, as well as an interpretation of the trade figures.
EU: Mining Machinery - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “EU: Mining Machinery - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020”. This report focuses on the EU mining machinery market, providing a comprehensive analysis and the most recent data on its market size and volume, EU trade, price dynamics, domestic production, and turnover in the industry. The market trends section reveals the main issues and uncertainties concerning the industry, while the medium-term outlook uncovers market prospects. The attractivity index (IB Index) summarizes the source of existing opportunities as they appear in this market, as well as an interpretation of the trade figures.
EU: Lathes for Removing Metal – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “EU: Lathes for Removing Metal - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020”. This report focuses on the EU lathe for removing metal market, providing a comprehensive analysis and the most recent data on its market size and volume, EU trade, price dynamics, domestic production, and turnover in the industry. The market trends section reveals the main issues and uncertainties concerning the industry, while the medium-term outlook uncovers market prospects. The attractivity index (IB Index) summarizes the source of existing opportunities as they appear in this market, as well as an interpretation of the trade figures.
EU: Transistors, Other than Photosensitive Transistors – Market Report. Analy...IndexBox Marketing
IndexBox Marketing has just published its report: “EU: Transistors, Other than Photosensitive Transistors - Market Report. Analysis And Forecast To 2020”. This report focuses on the EU transistor market, providing a comprehensive analysis and the most recent data on its market size and volume, EU trade, price dynamics, domestic production, and turnover in the industry. The market trends section reveals the main issues and uncertainties concerning the industry, while the medium-term outlook uncovers market prospects. The attractivity index (IB Index) summarizes the source of existing opportunities as they appear in this market, as well as an interpretation of the trade figures.
On 7 November, Dr Brendan Walsh presented at the HSE's Evidence for Policy Conference on Modelling Healthcare Demand and Supply in New Residential Developments.
On Tuesday 14th November 2023, the ESRI launched 'Civic and political engagement among young adults in Ireland'.
This study looks at civic engagement (volunteering) and involvement in political activities among 20-year-olds, drawing on Growing Up in Ireland data.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/civic-and-political-engagement-among-young-adults-in-ireland
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On 7 November, Dr Brendan Walsh presented at the HSE's Evidence for Policy Conference on Modelling Healthcare Demand and Supply in New Residential Developments.
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This study looks at civic engagement (volunteering) and involvement in political activities among 20-year-olds, drawing on Growing Up in Ireland data.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/civic-and-political-engagement-among-young-adults-in-ireland
On 20th October 2023, Selina McCoy and Eammon Carroll presented on research about post-school transitions for students with SEN at the NABMSE conference.
Tax-benefit systems face challenges in achieving their objectives. One key challenge is to ensure people have adequate incomes without creating strong financial disincentives to work.
One element which may reduce work incentives are cliff edges. Cliff edges occur where benefit entitlements and other supports are withdrawn sharply (or entirely), or where tax and social insurance liabilities increase steeply as income rises. Research has found that people adjust their behaviour to keep their income below points such as these.
This paper examines where such cliff edges exist in the Irish tax-benefit system and outlines potential reforms. PRSI and USC both have cliff edges in their design as people under a certain income are exempt. Once this threshold is passed, however, all of a person’s income becomes liable for the charges. This results in a drop in disposable income once the threshold is passed. Removing the cliff edge is possible by introducing a 0% band with those above this level only paying USC/PRSI on the income above this band (as is the case in the income tax system). Reforming the current system is possible but would mean trade-offs if the government want such changes to be revenue neutral – either more low-income people would need to be brought into the USC/PRSI net or rates must increase.
Part-time and low-income workers are negatively impacted by current rules
The social welfare system mainly avoids cliff edges through the gradual withdrawal of benefits as incomes rise. However, two cliff edges exist. The 4-in-7 rule, whereby those working part-time can only receive a Jobseekers Allowance (JSA) payment if fully unemployed for 4 days out of 7, can disincentivise employment as it means that a person working part-time, but whose hours are spread out over the week, will have no JSA entitlement. A second cliff edge exists for lower-income workers – those working at least 38 hours a fortnight can receive the in-work support, the Working Family Payment, while those just under this cut-off cannot.
Read full report on the ESRI website:
https://www.esri.ie/news/eliminating-cliff-edges-in-the-tax-benefit-system-would-help-improve-work-incentives
Despite concern among the public and policymakers about housing and healthcare in Ireland, limited information exists on the relationship between these two critical issues. New research by the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), presented at the annual Budget Perspectives conference on June 15th, highlights significant variations in health outcomes and medical card coverage across supported renter, private renter, and homeowner tenure groups in Ireland. The variations we report should not be interpreted as showing causation, but it is important to identify the patterns for a variety of reasons including healthcare delivery.
Supported renters
Findings show that individuals in the supported rental sector experience the poorest health outcomes. Half of all older adults (aged 65+) in supported rental housing report poor self-reported health, in contrast to one-third of older homeowners. A decline in medical card coverage among supported renters is found, with only 74% holding a medical card in 2021 compared to 87% in 2015. Less than half of employed supported renters possess a medical card, despite facing a high risk of poverty and having incomes that qualify them for public housing assistance.
Private renters
Private renters are found to have poorer health outcomes compared to homeowners across all age groups, in combination with lower rates of medical card coverage. A quarter of private renters with a chronic illness are at risk of poverty, yet the majority lack a medical card. Additionally, over a quarter of older private renters with a chronic illness do not hold a medical card. These findings, combined with previous research demonstrating the financial benefits of possessing a medical card in reducing the burden of healthcare, highlight the significant financial risk faced by vulnerable private renters in the event of a health shock.
Read full report on the ESRI website:
https://www.esri.ie/publications/housing-tenure-health-and-public-healthcare-coverage-in-ireland
The cost of childcare by childminders may decrease by an average of €100 per month if care provided by childminders becomes eligible for the National Childcare Scheme. Such is the finding of new research by the ESRI, presented at the annual Budget Perspectives conference on 15th June.
Prior to the introduction of the National Childcare Scheme (NCS), parents in Ireland faced some of the highest childcare costs among OECD countries. The NCS provides subsidies for users of Tusla-registered childcare. Childminder care, which is typically unregistered, is however, the second most widely used form of paid childcare in Ireland and is not currently subsidised. The National Action Plan for Childminders has committed to the extension of NCS subsidies to childminders who care for non-relative children in the childminder’s own home. The extension is expected to happen on a phased basis over a three-year period from 2024.
This research shows that extending the NCS to children cared for by childminders will cost €35-122 million per annum, depending on how well the scheme is taken up. If all current non-relative childminders register with Tusla and all eligible parents claim NCS subsidies, the reform will benefit 80,000 children by an average of around €100 per month. Children cared for by a childminder tend to live in households with relatively high disposable income and high levels of parental employment, compared to children in centre-based care. The reform will therefore benefit middle-income households more than low- or high-income households.
Subsidising the cost of childminder care is likely to have other knock-on consequences. First, it may reduce the demand for formal (centre-based) care which could alleviate some of the current shortages of this form of childcare. Second, it may increase mothers’ labour supply by reducing barriers to work. Third, wider and positive societal impacts are likely if regulation of the childminder sector improves quality of care and health and safety. However, much depends on the administrative or financial requirements placed on childminders by the increased regulation.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/extending-the-national-childcare-scheme-to-childminders-cost-and-distributional-effect
This report examines newly available data for 2021 on Northern Ireland’s goods exports and imports and equivalent data for Ireland on a detailed product and market level. This allows, for the first time, the trade structures of both economies to be investigated on a consistent basis, giving new insight into both overall international trade patterns for each economy and how cross-border trade looks within this broader context.
Read on the ESRI website:
https://www.esri.ie/publications/structure-of-international-goods-trade-for-ireland-and-northern-ireland
Co-authors Dr Conor O'Toole and Prof Kieran McQuinn delivered a presentation on the ‘Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2023’.
Read key findings from the QEC:
https://www.esri.ie/news/underlying-domestic-growth-still-quite-strong-however-global-uncertainties-impacting-headline
📈Rising interest rates, slower-than-expected global trade and persistent inflation cloud the international outlook, but the domestic economy is growing robustly.
⬆️Modified Domestic Demand (MDD), the more accurate measure of domestic economic activity, is forecasted for growth of 3.6% this year and 4.0% in 2024
👷Labour and housing market capacity constraints may have implications for future growth.
Read the Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2023 on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/quarterly-economic-commentary-summer-2023
The ESRI, in collaboration with Pobal, have launched a report examining the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on people living in disadvantaged areas in Ireland, as defined by the Pobal Haase Pratschke Deprivation Index. The report, titled ‘Pandemic Unemployment and Social Disadvantage in Ireland’, shows that people living in deprived areas, when compared to those living in more affluent areas, experienced greater disruption to their employment.
The Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) was a social welfare payment for employees and self-employed people who lost all their employment due to the COVID-19 public health emergency and the resulting economic impact of lockdowns and restrictions. The payment was designed as income replacement to mitigate the short-term impact on financial wellbeing that pandemic-related job interruption would cause. This research examines the economic repercussions of the pandemic and the extent to which the proportion and duration of Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) are related to area-level deprivation.
Read more key findings: https://www.esri.ie/news/people-in-disadvantaged-areas-experienced-greater-employment-disruption-during-the-covid-19
Read the report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/pandemic-unemployment-and-social-disadvantage-in-ireland
Individuals who experienced childhood poverty are much more likely to experience income poverty and material deprivation in adulthood. A new study funded by Pobal and carried out by the ESRI finds that in 2019, the likelihood of deprivation in adulthood was 35 percentage points higher among individuals who grew up in poverty when compared to individuals who grew up in ‘very good’ financial circumstances.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/intergenerational-poverty-in-ireland
Read the press release: https://www.esri.ie/news/childhood-poverty-associated-with-higher-risk-of-material-deprivation-and-income-poverty-in
This report, conducted as part of a research programme with the Pensions Council, explores indicative future paths for homeownership rates in Ireland and explores the impact in terms of income poverty in retirement.
Using data from the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) and the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), we consider a number of scenarios to assess the possibility of renting households becoming homeowners, and then test the impact on income poverty rates if households were to continue to have rental costs into retirement.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/future-trends-in-housing-tenure-and-the-adequacy-of-retirement-income
The relationship between health and employment status continually shows that individuals who work have lower levels of illness and higher self-reported health. This study examines how self-reported health and objective measures of health (multimorbidity and mental health problems) differ across employment status and occupations among adults of working age (25-65 years). In addition, the study examines how public health coverage – medical card and GP visit card (GPVC) – and private health coverage (PHI), and lack thereof, differ across occupations. Overall, individuals not in employment have much lower rates of self-reported health and higher rates of illness. In particular, mental health problems are three times higher among unemployed individuals across all age groups. Examining workers separately, differences in health status across occupations are small. However, rates of health coverage differ considerably across occupations. In general, occupations associated with poorer health status tend to have the highest percentages of workers without a medical card/GPVC or PHI. This affects workers’ ability to access lower cost or free healthcare, including for the purpose of certified sick leave.
Read the full publication: https://www.esri.ie/publications/occupations-and-health
Ireland is an outlier among EU countries as it does not have a strong link between previous earnings and the level of payment provided to those who have recently lost their job or are on leave from work for the short- to medium-term for reasons of illness or maternity. This paper provides a historical background for earnings-related benefits in Ireland, outlines the rationale behind linking benefits with previous earnings and examines the potential impact of (re)instating them.
Existing research has shown that disability is costly and can result in an increased risk of living in poverty and a decrease in living standards. In this paper, we expand a framework of equality budgeting, previously applied from a gender perspective, to the population of households affected by disability. Using a microsimulation model linked to data from the EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC), we show how tax-benefit policy and other market income changes between 2007 and 2019 impacted households affected by disability and households not affected by disability. We find that disposable (or post-tax and transfer) income grew for both types of households but at a faster rate for households affected by disability than households not affected by disability. This income growth was driven by two counteracting forces. On the one hand, tax and welfare policy failed to keep pace with market income growth, reducing the living standards of households affected by disability by more than households not affected by disability. On the other hand, despite having lower average wage levels, wage growth for workers affected by disability outpaced wage growth for workers not affected by disability, while the labour supply of households affected by disability also increased. Future attempts to equality-proof budgetary policy should consider that changes to welfare disproportionally affect households with disabilities.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/the-impact-of-irish-budgetary-policy-by-disability-status
On Thursday, June 16th 2022, the ESRI launched the Community Foundation for Ireland/ESRI report Energy poverty and deprivation in Ireland, a topic once again to the forefront of the policy debate given recent increases in energy prices.
This report comprises two main sections. Firstly, it charts the nature of energy poverty in Ireland since the early 1990s, providing insight into the socioeconomic groups likely to experience either energy-related deprivation or high energy costs. Secondly, this report considers recent increases in energy prices to identify how this has affected the number of households experiencing energy poverty. The options policymakers may employ to counter energy poverty are considered.
Read the full report on our website:
https://www.esri.ie/publications/energy-poverty-and-deprivation-in-ireland
Read the accompanying press release on our website: https://www.esri.ie/news/energy-poverty-at-highest-recorded-rate
Subscribe to our Monthly Newsletter/Publication and Event notifications: https://www.esri.ie/sign-up-for-the-esri-newsletter
On Monday, June 20th 2022, the ESRI launched the report 'Disrupted transitions? Young adults and the COVID-19 pandemic'.
The report was conducted as part of a research programme with DCEDIY, draws on the Growing Up in Ireland COVID-19 survey to document the disruption to education, employment and day-to-day activities experienced by young adults during the pandemic and the consequences for their mental health. The report was launched by the Minister for Children, Equality, Disability, Integration and Youth, Dr Roderic O'Gorman, TD.
The research shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in poorer mental health among young adults. Using data from the Growing Up in Ireland COVID-19 survey, carried out in December 2020, the findings show that four-in-ten 22-year-old men and over half (55 per cent) of 22-year-old women were classified as depressed. These were much higher figures than two years previously when 22 per cent of men and 31 per cent of women were depressed.
Poorer mental health during the pandemic reflected the disruption to young adults’ employment, education and day-to-day activities. Just before the pandemic hit, most (63 per cent) of these 22-year-olds were in full-time education or training and so shifted to remote learning. The vast majority had the electronic devices they needed for remote learning and live online lectures/classes were offered by their institutions. However, around half did not have access to adequate broadband and a quiet place to study, and less than one third (30 per cent) received regular feedback on their work. Over half (57 per cent) found it difficult to study while learning remotely and this was linked to a greater risk of depression. In contrast, those who had more interaction with their institution and the resources they needed to study fared better.
Over half (57 per cent) of those working (either full-time or while studying) when the pandemic hit lost their job. Only one-in-six (16 per cent) of the young adults started working remotely or increased the hours they worked from home. Having higher Leaving Certificate grades and being in a professional/managerial job at age 20 appeared to act as some protection against job loss when the pandemic began. Receiving the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) served to shelter these young adults from financial strain following employment loss. Losing a full-time job was linked to poorer mental health, especially for young men.
Read the full report on our website: https://www.esri.ie/publications/disr...
Read the accompanying press release on our website: https://www.esri.ie/news/the-covid-19...
Subscribe to our Monthly Newsletter/Publication and Event notifications: https://www.esri.ie/sign-up-for-the-e...
On Tuesday 7 June 2022, the ESRI hosted an event titled 'Application of ethical principles for the design of Just Transition policies'.
Miguel Angel Tovar (ESRI) presented a presentation titled 'The cost of inaction'.
See more details on our website here: https://www.esri.ie/events/virtual-conference-application-of-ethical-principles-for-the-design-of-just-transition
This report is the first study to systematically compare the education systems in Ireland and Northern Ireland from primary to tertiary levels. It draws on international and national survey data, administrative data, interviews with policy stakeholders and input from a consultation with stakeholders to document commonalities and differences between the two systems. It is hoped that the study findings will provide insights for future policy learning in both jurisdictions.
Read the full report: https://www.esri.ie/publications/a-north-south-comparison-of-education-and-training-systems-lessons-for-policy
On 11 April, Prof Frances McGinnity presented the findings from our latest report titled 'Origin and integration: Housing and family among migrants in the 2016 Irish Census'.
Read the full publication: https://www.esri.ie/publications/origin-and-integration-housing-and-family-among-migrants-in-the-2016-irish-census
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Corporate taxation and the location choice of FDI in EU countries
1. Corporate Taxation and the Location Choice of
Foreign Direct Investment in EU Countries
DATE
28 March 2018
VENUE
Royal Economic Society 2018
Conference, University of
Sussex, Brighton
AUTHORS
Ronald B. Davies
Iulia Siedschlag
Zuzanna Studnicka
2. Research Questions
• How does corporate tax policy impact on the location choice of
FDI in EU countries?
– All new foreign affiliates
– EU investors versus non-EU investors
– Differences across sectors: manufacturing versus services
• How would changes in corporate tax policy affect EU countries’
attractiveness to FDI?
– Changes in the effective average tax rate (EATR)
3. Novelties
• Multi-country econometric framework
– More robust evidence in comparison to existing single country analysis
• Allows for a more flexible substitution pattern across location
alternatives - nested logit model
– More realistic estimates in comparison to estimates from conditional
logit models under the assumption of perfect independence of
location alternatives
• Identifies the sensitivity of EU countries’ attractiveness to FDI following
changes in corporate tax policy accounting for heterogeneous investors
– EU investors versus non-EU investors
– Differences across sectors: manufacturing versus services
4. Key Results
• Lower corporate tax rates increase the attractiveness of EU
countries to FDI
– Other location factors matter too – market size, access to the EU Single
market, production costs, R&D capacity, cultural and geographical proximity
• Investors from outside the EU
– are mainly seeking access to the EU Single Market and are more likely to
choose locations with low corporate tax rates
• Intra-EU investors
– are more likely to locate in countries where the corporate tax rate is high but
where they benefit from low production costs
5. Key Results – Changes in corporate tax rates
• Different responsiveness of FDI across sectors
– the location choice of FDI in services – highly sensitive
– the location choice of FDI in manufacturing – not responsive
• Different responsiveness of FDI by country of origin
– FDI from outside the EU – highly sensitive
– Intra-EU FDI – not responsive
• Sensitivity of country attractiveness to FDI
– the most sensitive: Southern European countries (Malta, Greece, Portugal,
Spain)
– the least sensitive: Germany, the United Kingdom
• Sensitivity of country attractiveness to FDI from outside EU
– the most sensitive: Ireland, Malta, Norway, Luxembourg, Finland
23/03/2018
6. Modelling the Location Choice of New FDI
Projects
Conditional logit model McFadden (1974)
Underlying firm behavioural model: random utility maximization model
Conditional on deciding to invest abroad, investors consider the given
set of alternative locations and choose the one that gives them the
highest profits
πij = X’ijβ + εij
Xij: observed characteristics of alternative locations
εij: stochastic term capturing unobservable location characteristics
Key assumption: Alternative locations are perfectly independent of
each other (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives Property)
7. Modelling the Location Choice of New FDI
Projects
Nested logit model McFadden (1984)
• Firms decide where to locate in two steps
(1) The nest choice (group of similar locations)
(2) The location choice within each nest
• Key assumption - independence between nests while non-negative correlation of
unobserved locational characteristics within nests is allowed
Methodological benefits
• Allows more flexible substitution patterns among alternative locations by grouping
locations with similar characteristics into nests
• Changes in countries’ attractiveness affect the total number of FDI projects
• Identifies the sensitivity of countries’ attractiveness to changes in own location
characteristics as well as to changes in other countries’ location characteristics
8. Modelling the Location Choice of New FDI Projects –
Nested Logit Model
The sum of utilities generated from alternatives in nest k, IVk (the inclusive value of nest k)
23/03/2018
The probability function of alternative h in nest k being chosen
0< <1
Testing for the consistency of nested structures with utility maximisation
: the correlation of alternatives in nest k
9. Baseline Model Specification
Dependent variable – the location choice of new foreign affiliates
: the expected profit for foreign affiliate i in country j
Explanatory variables – observed location characteristics
Demand-related: Market size, market potential
Supply-related: Production costs, trade and investment costs, technological development
Policy-related : Corporate tax rate
Geographical nested structures
Anglo-Saxon United Kingdom, Ireland
Core and Northern Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany,
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway
Central and Eastern Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
Southern Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain
10. The Data
• Balance sheet information on companies in Europe - Amadeus (Bureau von Dijk)
over the period 2002-2014
– Ownership structure – intra-EU and non-EU investors
– Financial information, industry/sector
– Country location – over 18,000 new foreign affiliates
• Macroeconomic data at country level (The World Bank)
– GDP, GDP per capita – in constant 2005 prices
– R&D expenditure as percent of GDP
• Trade and investment costs (CEPII)
– Distance between home and host countries; contiguity; cultural proximity
• Policy variables (KPMG; Spengel et al. 2014; the World Bank)
– Tax policy: Corporate tax rates - statutory, EATR, EMTR
11. New FDI Projects in EU Countries - 2002-2014
Destination
Number of
projects
Share of
projects - % Destination
Number of
projects
Share of
projects - %
DE 3,333 18.4 DK 308 1.7
UK 2,434 13.44 FI 260 1.44
RO 1,546 8.54 NO 250 1.38
IT 1,355 7.48 HU 234 1.29
NL 1,264 6.98 EE 194 1.07
FR 969 5.35 HR 191 1.05
PL 956 5.28 LV 173 0.96
CZ 869 4.8 LU 134 0.74
AT 788 4.35 BG 94 0.52
SK 786 4.34 SI 56 0.31
ES 667 3.68 GR 44 0.24
PT 462 2.55 MT 44 0.24
BE 346 1.91 LT 32 0.18
IE 321 1.77 Total 18,110 100
12. Determinants of the Location Choice of New FDI
Nested Logit Model Estimates
All FDI Projects EU Investors Non-EU Investors
Corporate tax rate (EATR) -0.217*** (0.043) 0.048 (0.056) -0.793*** (0.061)
Market size (GDP) 0.362***(0.011) 0.373*** (0.014) 0.390*** (0.019)
EU Market potential 0.078*** (0.021) -0.338***(0.033) 0.776*** (0.033)
GDP per capita -0.509***(0.021) -0.613*** (0.027) -0.045 (0.047)
Trade cost -distance to home -0.452*** (0.016) -0.658***(0.019) 0.162*** (0.042)
Common language 0.384***(0.022) 0.308***(0.032) 0.500*** (0.038)
Common border 0.467***(0.020) 0.481***(0.025) 0.660*** (0.039)
R&D expenditure intensity -0.323*** (0.049) -0.346*** (0.066) -0.482*** (0.089)
R&D expend. intensity squared 0.093***(0.012) 0.066***(0.016) 0.178*** (0.021)
Dissimilarity Parameters (τk)
UK-Ireland EU Group 0.421***(0.020) 0.535***(0.032) 0.259*** (0.019)
Core-Northern EU Group 0.638***(0.012) 0.735***(0.017) 0.469*** (0.017)
Central & Eastern EU Group 0.552***(0.017) 0.663***(0.020) 0.532*** (0.037)
Southern EU Group 0.422***(0.014) 0.471***(0.018) 0.489*** (0.023)
Number of observations
LR test for IIA (τk = 1)
436,846
χ2 (4) =858.17***
274,341
χ2 (4) =420.22***
162,505
χ2 (4) = 504.43***
13. Determinants of the Location Choice of New FDI
Nested Logit Model Estimates – All Investors
Manufacturing Services
Corporate tax rate (EATR) -0.187 (0.135) -0.317*** (0.050)
Market size (GDP) 0.529*** (0.043) 0.354*** (0.013)
EU Market potential 0.111 (0.079) 0.143*** (0.023)
GDP per capita -0.899*** (0.071) -0.396*** (0.025)
Trade cost -distance to home -0.448***(0.052) -0.431*** (0.018)
Common language 0.492*** (0.076) 0.312*** (0.024)
Common border 0.480*** (0.065) 0.533*** (0.024)
R&D expenditure intensity -0.695*** (0.183) -0.202*** (0.056)
R&D expend. intensity squared 0.220*** (0.044) 0.070*** (0.014)
Dissimilarity Parameters (τk)
UK-Ireland EU Group 0.624***(0.089) 0.401*** (0.022)
Core-Northern EU Group 0.614***(0.039) 0.641*** (0.014)
Central & Eastern EU Group 0.782***(0.057) 0.561*** (0.020)
Southern EU Group 0.412***(0.044) 0.431*** (0.016)
Number of observations
LR test for IIA (τk = 1)
47,193
χ2 (4) =116.25***
338,284
χ2 (4) =663.90***
16. Key Results
• Lower corporate tax rates increase the attractiveness of EU
countries to FDI
– Other location factors matter too – market size, access to the EU Single
market, production costs, R&D capacity, cultural and geographical proximity
• Investors from outside the EU
– are mainly seeking access to the EU Single Market and are more likely to
choose locations with low corporate tax rates
• Intra-EU investors
– are more likely to locate in countries where the corporate tax rate is high but
where they benefit from low production costs
17. Key Results – Changes in corporate tax rates
• Different responsiveness of FDI across sectors
– the location choice of FDI in services – highly sensitive while
– the location choice of FDI in manufacturing – not responsive
• Different responsiveness of FDI by country of origin
– FDI from outside the EU – highly sensitive
– Intra-EU FDI – not responsive
• Sensitivity of country attractiveness to FDI
– the most sensitive: Southern European countries (Malta, Greece, Portugal,
Spain)
– the least sensitive: Germany, the United Kingdom
• Sensitivity of country attractiveness to FDI from outside EU
– the most sensitive: Ireland, Malta, Norway, Luxembourg, Finland
23/03/2018
18. Determinants of the Location Choice of New FDI Nested
Logit Model Estimates – EU Investors
Manufacturing Services
Corporate tax rate (EATR) 0.066 (0.174) 0.000 (0.050)
Market size (GDP) 0.531*** (0.050) 0.356*** (0.015)
EU Market potential -0.333*** (0.114) -0.278*** (0.037)
GDP per capita -1.027*** (0.091) -0.508*** (0.031)
Trade cost -distance to home -0.644***(0.059) -0.634*** (0.022)
Common language 0.373*** (0.106) 0.259*** (0.035)
Common border 0.545*** (0.080) 0.522*** (0.029)
R&D expenditure intensity -0.610*** (0.233) -0.203*** (0.076)
R&D expend. intensity squared 0.174*** (0.057) 0.039*** (0.019)
Dissimilarity Parameters (τk)
UK-Ireland EU Group 0.640***(0.122) 0.528*** (0.036)
Core-Northern EU Group 0.658***(0.047) 0.734*** (0.018)
Central & Eastern EU Group 0.863***(0.067) 0.669*** (0.024)
Southern EU Group 0.469***(0.058) 0.459*** (0.021)
Number of observations
LR test for IIA (τk = 1)
30,144
χ2 (4) =67.30***
208,884
χ2 (4) =326.98***
19. Determinants of the Location Choice of New FDI Nested
Logit Model Estimates – Non-EU Investors
Manufacturing Services
Corporate tax rate (EATR) -0.600*** (0.206) -0.868*** (0.066)
Market size (GDP) 0.473*** (0.075) 0.392*** (0.021)
EU Market potential 0.796*** (0.107) 0.827*** (0.037)
GDP per capita -0.531*** (0.114) 0.105* (0.060)
Trade cost -distance to home 0.171 (0.145) 0.136*** (0.048)
Common language 0.661*** (0.142) 0.395*** (0.042)
Common border 0.361*** (0.127) 0.771*** (0.045)
R&D expenditure intensity -0.818*** (0.311) -0.389*** (0.103)
R&D expend. intensity squared 0.291*** (0.073) 0.155*** (0.025)
Dissimilarity Parameters (τk)
UK-Ireland EU Group 0.460***(0.098) 0.249*** (0.021)
Core-Northern EU Group 0.459***(0.063) 0.483*** (0.019)
Central & Eastern EU Group 0.612***(0.107) 0.573*** (0.045)
Southern EU Group 0.336***(0.061) 0.529*** (0.027)
Number of observations
LR test for IIA (τk = 1)
17,049
χ2 (4) =57.81***
129,400
χ2 (4) =391.53***
20. Existing Literature
Aggregate impact
• Gresik (2001, JEL); Davies (2004, ITAX); Fuest, et al. (2005, BC); de Mooij
and Ederveen (2008, OxREP); Wilson (1999, NTJ); Lawless (2013,
Economica); Gӧrg (2000, JES)
Location Choice
• Single Country Studies
– Devereux & Griffith (1998, JPubE); Davies, et al (2009, WE); Head and
Mayer (2004, REStat); Heabous, et a. (2011, NTJ)
• Multi-country Studies
– Basile, et al. (2009, JIE); Barrios, et al. (2012, JPubE); Siedschlag, et al.
(2013a, Res Pol); Siedschlag, et al. (2013b, EINT); Lawless, McCoy,
Morgenroth, O’Toole (2014, WP); Davies, Killeen (2015, WP)
Other firm choices
• Azemar, et al. (2012, EP); Davies, et al (2014, WP); Kinda (2014, WP);
Davies, et al. (2014, WP); Cristea and Nguyen (forthcoming, AEJ:Policy)
21. 23/03/2018
Alternative Nested Structures Tested and Reason for Rejection
Nest
Version
Nested Structure Reason for rejection
A United Kingdom and Ireland
Core EU Group: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxemburg, the Netherlands
Central and Eastern European EU Group: Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
Northern EU Group: Denmark, Finland, Norway
Southern EU Group: Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain
Estimates were not consistent with the profit
maximization requirements for all variables
( > 1).
B Northern EU Group: Denmark, Finland, Norway, United Kingdom, Ireland
Core EU Group: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxemburg, the Netherlands
Central and Eastern European EU Group: Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
Southern EU Group: Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Spain
Estimates were not consistent with the profit
maximization requirements for all variables
( > 1).
Two Nests Advanced EU: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxemburg, the Netherlands,
Denmark, Finland, Norway, United Kingdom, Ireland, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal,
Spain
Central and Eastern European EU Group: Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
Estimated log likelihood was lower than in the
selected structure with four nests (the
likelihood dominance criterion).