5. Terrorist attacks and fighting have disrupted
daily life for people in the Lake Chad Basin
AP Photo/Jerome Delay
6. The broader political, economic, and social
context in Nigeria contributes to the conflict
Source: Deutsche Welle, 2014
7. The conflict is occurring in the context of major
environmental changes in the Lake Chad Basin
Source: Info Congo, 2015
8. Lake Chad has been shrinking, which increases
competition for scarce water resources
Source: GRID-Arendal
9. Widespread grievances in NE Nigeria enabled
Boko Haram to mobilize an insurgency
Poverty Governance Religion/Ethnicity
Diminishing land &
water resources
Growing migration
Wealth
concentrated in
southern Nigeria
Corruption
Poor institutional
performance
Political exclusion
Competition for
leadership of
Nigerian Muslims
Implementation of
Sharia law in North
Kanuri ethnic
identity
10. Key actors have the potential to mobilize
people to violence or peacebuilding
Boko Haram
Leader Abubakar
Shekau
Nigerian President
Muhammadu Buhari
Religious & traditional leaders
Nigerian civil society
The Lake Chad Basin Commission
11. Nigeria has weakened Boko Haram militarily,
but the underlying grievances persist
Population growthLong term
trends
Triggers
for
conflict
escalation
Climate change
Demand for water and land
Poverty
Major
terror
attack
Excessive
force
Economic
recession
12. Boko Haram→ economic loses of >$15B in NE Nigeria
Disruption of core livelihoods by conflict
Changing environmental conditions → decreased crop
yield & increased livestock mortality
Untapped farming and livestock potential for poverty
reduction if water availability and management
issues addressed
Economic Resilience
13. Peacebuilding Strategy
Programs
Youth
Employment
Sustainable
Livelihoods
Water and Land Use
Agreements
Lake Chad
Replenishment
Short-term Medium-term
Long-Term
Business Skills
Workshops
Micro-credit Programs
Sustainable Agriculture Training,
Small-Scale Irrigation Projects,
Well Construction
Market Access
Strategies
Infrastructure
Development
Cooperative
Negotiation
Negotiated
Agreement,
Enforcement
Large-Scale Infrastructure
for River Diversions
Community Research,
Environmental Studies
14. Peacebuilding Strategy
Programs
Youth
Employment
Sustainable
Livelihoods
Water and Land Use
Agreements
Lake Chad
Replenishment
Short-term Medium-term
Long-Term
Business Skills
Workshops
Micro-credit Programs
Sustainable Agriculture Training,
Small-Scale Irrigation Projects,
Well Construction
Market Access
Strategies
Infrastructure
Development
Cooperative
Negotiation
Negotiated
Agreement,
Enforcement
Large-Scale Infrastructure
for River Diversions
Community Research,
Environmental Studies
15. Youth Employment Initiatives
● Vocational training
● Apprenticeships
● Basic management and
accountancy courses
● Small business
associations
● Microfinance loans
16. Peacebuilding Strategy
Programs
Youth
Employment
Sustainable
Livelihoods
Water and Land Use
Agreements
Lake Chad
Replenishment
Short-term Medium-term
Long-Term
Business Skills
Workshops
Micro-credit Programs
Sustainable Agriculture Training,
Small-Scale Irrigation Projects,
Well Construction
Market Access
Strategies
Infrastructure
Development
Cooperative
Negotiation
Negotiated
Agreement,
Enforcement
Large-Scale Infrastructure
for River Diversions
Community Research,
Environmental Studies
17. Training in sustainable agricultural practices
1
● no-tillage systems
● shifting of sowing times
● use of organic manure
19. Increased access to water points for pastoralists
3
● Construction of boreholes
● Training in how to identify
and operate wells
● Community consultation
21. Peacebuilding Strategy
Programs
Youth
Employment
Sustainable
Livelihoods
Water and Land Use
Agreements
Lake Chad
Replenishment
Short-term Medium-term
Long-Term
Business Skills
Workshops
Micro-credit Programs
Sustainable Agriculture Training,
Small-Scale Irrigation Projects,
Well Construction
Market Access
Strategies
Infrastructure
Development
Cooperative
Negotiation
Negotiated
Agreement,
Enforcement
Large-Scale Infrastructure
for River Diversions
Community Research,
Environmental Studies
22. Water & Land Use Agreements
IUCN Framework for
negotiating water
agreements
Importance of dialogue
at local level,
institutions & civil
society organizations,
government
24. Local Level
Activities in local community that helps to build trust along
the Basin while also maintaining ecology of LCB
Short-term
25. Medium & Long Term Results KYB Program
Water Charter Agreement
Catchment Management Plan
(CMP)
Comprehensive Water Audit
26. Barriers
● Economic & political instability
● Cultural hierarchy & participation
● Lack of/incomplete data on the use, allocation and
management of land and water
● States have not granted LCBC to assume more
responsibilities
27. Recommendations
Government subsidies for irrigation farmers
Civil institutions developing projects to educate locals
on advantages of the methods and technologies
Programs focused on implementing the different
models of public participation
More authority to LCBC by member states
28. Peacebuilding Strategy
Programs
Youth
Employment
Sustainable
Livelihoods
Water and Land Use
Agreements
Lake Chad
Replenishment
Short-term Medium-term
Long-Term
Business Skills
Workshops
Micro-credit Programs
Sustainable Agriculture Training,
Small-Scale Irrigation Projects,
Well Construction
Market Access
Strategies
Infrastructure
Development
Cooperative
Negotiation
Negotiated
Agreement,
Enforcement
Large-Scale Infrastructure
for River Diversions
Community Research,
Environmental Studies
29. The Need for Replenishment of Lake Chad
Almost dry on Nigerian
side of the Lake
Employment for 2
million Nigerians
50,000 tons of fish
Shared with other users
30. Lake Chad Replenishment Project
● First proposed in 1988
● Transfer from Congo Basin to
Chad Basin
● Hydroelectric dam on
Oubangi River near Bangui
● Gradual restoration of Lake
Chad
● Navigable waterway between
basins
31. Cautions from southern Africa
Lesotho Highlands Water Project between South Africa and
Lesotho
Large inter-basin transfer but not designed for
peacebuilding
Successful by some measures BUT
Was less successful and problematic in some respects
32. Context of Chad and Congo Basins
Cost
Ensure benefits and access for all users
Environmental impact concerns
Support from all states of Chad Basin
Resistance from Republic of Congo and DRC
Are trade opportunities and hydropower enough?
33. Peacebuilding Strategy
Programs
Youth
Employment
Sustainable
Livelihoods
Water and Land Use
Agreements
Lake Chad
Replenishment
Short-term Medium-term
Long-Term
Business Skills
Workshops
Micro-credit Programs
Sustainable Agriculture Training,
Small-Scale Irrigation Projects,
Well Construction
Market Access
Strategies
Infrastructure
Development
Cooperative
Negotiation
Negotiated
Agreement,
Enforcement
Large-Scale Infrastructure
for River Diversions
Community Research,
Environmental Studies
The conflict between Boko Haram and the Nigerian government is concentrated in the northeastern Nigerian states of Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa, indicated in yellow on the map.
Boko Haram was formed in the early 2000s with the goal of driving the Nigerian federal government out of the northern areas and establishing an Islamic state there.
The conflict escalated in 2009, when the Nigerian military captured the original leader of Boko Haram and killed him while he was in their custody. This extrajudicial execution sparked major demonstrations and riots, and led Boko Haram to increase its use of violent tactics. The group also became increasingly fragmented, which has complicated attempts to target its leadership structure or engage in negotiations.
Since 2009, Boko Haram has carried out terrorist attacks and military offensives throughout NE Nigeria, spreading into the neighboring countries of Chad, Niger, and Cameroon. Some of the main targets are government officials, markets, and religious sites. Boko Haram relies on recruits and material support from local communities, and it also captures and coerces young people into supporting the group.
Today, the Nigerian government and its regional partners have now taken back most territory once held by Boko Haram, but the group still carries out terrorist attacks that generate fear and prevent the normal functioning of society.
Finally, a few important things to know about Nigeria in the context of this conflict are that:
North mostly muslim, south mostly christian
Politics in Nigeria tends to fragment around religious and ethnic lines
Major oil resources in the south, wealth tends to be concentrated in the south
The Boko Haram conflict is occurring in an area that is part of the Lake Chad Basin, which is the green area on this map.
This map gives a nice image of how the basin of the lake spans several countries, with rivers extending even further.
This context is important because the environmental changes in the basin have led to increased migration, including across borders, by herders and people displaced by resource scarcity and conflict.
Cooperation between a number of national governments and local communities will be necessary to address these transboundary environmental and migration issues, as well as the Boko Haram violence that has spread beyond Nigeria.
This is an illuminating visual representation of how dramatically Lake Chad has shrunk since the 1960s. The reduction in the Lake’s size is mostly due to evaporation and overuse of water resources. The disappearance of the lake has fundamentally altered the region’s patterns of settlement and migration, as well as the livelihoods of people and communities that rely - or used to rely - on the lake for activities like fishing and watering livestock. The reduction in water has also increased competition for its use. Overall, the shrinking of the lake has contributed to increasing poverty and fragility in the region.
Grievances:
Diminishing land and water resources, migration make livelihoods difficult
Dissatisfaction with governance (elitism, corruption, poor institutional performance)
Competition for religious leadership and influence
Key Mobilizers
Boko Haram
Nigerian government
Religious leaders
Civil society
Neighboring countries
Resiliencies:
Capacity for democratic elections
Civil society
Regional cooperation through Lake Chad Basin Commission
Trends, trajectories:
Population growth
Demand for water
Climate change
Poverty
Triggers
Recession
Military overreaction
Major terrorist attack
For our peacebuilding strategy, we decided to focus on strategies to increase economic resilience. Economic resilience in Nigeria is an area with enormous peacebuilding potential because there is significant room for improvement and many of the core grievances driving the conflict are connected to widespread poverty, unemployment, and perception of insufficient government services in northeastern Nigeria.
In the northeastern states, the conflict with Boko Haram has reportedly led to economic losses of more than $15 billion. The agricultural sector has been particularly affected by the conflict, with planting seasons, markets, and herding routes disrupted for as many as five years in some areas.
Further, critical livelihoods activities such as agricultural and livestock production are also under pressure from changing environmental conditions. Climate change is predicted to cause a long-term reduction in crop yields by 20-30 percent, a decline in the productivity of livestock, increased livestock mortality rates The northern region of Nigeria is particularly at risk, as its heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture makes it highly susceptible to fluctuations in rainfall and rising temperatures.
These factors are compounded by depletion of Lake Chad.
However, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations argues that agro-pastoral regions of Nigeria—the northern states—represent significant untapped farming and livestock potential for poverty reduction if water availability and management issues are addressed.
For these reasons, we believe addressing the region’s poverty, resource scarcity, and changing livelihood opportunities will be key to limiting Boko Haram’s ability to recruit young people, reducing frictions between communities over land and water, and creating new opportunities for cooperation and conflict resolution.
Our peacebuilding proposal identifies short-term, medium-term, and long-term initiatives focused in four areas
In addition to the practices of kidnapping and coercion, Boko Haram has successfully exploited the ambition of youth by filling the gap of financial services desired by entrepreneurial young people in northern Nigeria.
A recent Mercy Corps study of youth who had escaped Boko Haram indicates that young people in northern Nigeria were enticed to join by loans or other business support promised by the terrorist group.
Upon returning to their communities, Boko Haram ex-combatants reported the desire to pursue a new livelihood, become an entrepreneur, or expand their existing businesses.
Many young people in Northern Nigeria view entrepreneurship as a way to “get ahead and distinguish themselves in their community.”
These trends echo the grievance of unmatched economic potential in northeastern Nigeria which we analyzed in our conflict analysis as a driver of conflict.
Therefore, in the short-term, we recommend the implementation of reintegration programs for ex-combatants and youth initiatives focused on business skills training and credit initiatives for youth in northeastern Nigeria.
Such programs could include vocational training, apprenticeships, basic management and accountancy courses, the formation of small business associations and microfinance loans.
A similar initiative was implemented with former child soldiers in Burundi and participants reported feeling a greater sense of economic opportunity following the program. An evaluation of a youth employment program in Kenya following 2013 election violence found “if young people…are employed, and able to satisfy their basic needs, then they are less likely to join violent movements for economic gain.
In northeastern Nigeria, we recommend a program of similar scale to an initiative implemented in Sierra Leone at the end of the civil war in 2011. This program provided workshops on business development and vocational training for 40,000 youths, roughly half ex-combatants and half conflict-affected youth, in targeted locations with a high density of ex-combatants and youth population. The incorporation of these two target groups into one initiative provides important opportunities for dialogue and peacebuilding potential as well. Such a program should be implemented in the northeastern states which saw the most Boko Haram activity-- Adamawa, Borno, Gombe, and Yobe
It is critical that community members play a role in nominating participants for an employment initiative to mitigate the perception of favoritism and support conflict-sensitive decision-making in the program design.
To address the climatic and economic conditions hindering the productivity of farmers and pastoralists, we propose the design and implementation of a sustainable livelihoods program in rural communities of northern Nigeria that focuses on climate change adaptations, water conservation, and market access.
In comparison to isolated development projects, an assessment of water management in agriculture suggests that integrating water and livestock development creates more sustainable livelihood zones and increases investment return.
The goals of this integrated program is to reduce poverty by improving livelihoods, conserving scarce water resources, and increasing climate adaptive capacity at the community level.
Training in sustainable agricultural practices:
Bush fallowing, shifting agriculture practices, and overgrazing in northeastern Nigeria contributes to deforestation and desertification, which exacerbate droughts and other climatic changes. Further, unsustainable agriculture practices decrease crop productivity.
Therefore, we recommend training for farmers in climate-smart, conservation-based agricultural practices. Such practices include no-tillage systems, shifting of sowing times, and the use of organic manure to improve the quality of agricultural lands.
Soil and water conservation programs implemented in Burkina Faso and Mali have proven to increase harvest output, improve plant water retention, and prevent erosion. Livestock were also incorporated into these strategies to provide fertilizer and to consume fodders that remained after harvest.
Development of irrigation systems: Despite the large amount of agriculture production occurring in northern Nigeria, less than one percent of cultivated areas use irrigation systems. Current irrigation practices, mainly water pumps, allow for substantial amounts of water to be lost.
Therefore, we suggest the development of irrigation programs for farmers in northern Nigeria to improve their productivity while also conserving water and ensuring its more efficient use. Irrigation technologies could include drip irrigation, micro sprinklers, PVC pipes, tubewells, or wrapped filters that are connected to small, constructed reservoirs.
We recommend community participation in the design and realization of irrigation projects to strengthen social cohesion, ensure local relevance and use, prevent the triggering of new conflicts over water access, and facilitate sustainable management.
The success of these irrigation and water conservation technologies and practices is dependent on their effective adaptation to local circumstances and support in the form of training initiatives and funding commitments.
Increased access to water points for pastoralists:Violence in the northeastern states of Nigeria has caused pastoralists to divert their grazing paths, which limits their access to pasture lands and necessary water resources. Under such conditions, pastoralists are also more likely to resort to distressing coping mechanisms such as prematurely slaughtering livestock or selling at a lower price that compromises the sustainability of their livelihood.
Migration is no longer a sufficient adaptive strategy for pastoralists in northeastern Nigeria given the increasing population, water scarcity, and competition over resources. Therefore, in the short-term, we recommend establishment of more boreholes to provide pastoralists increased access to water.
This strategy requires the pastoralists be adequately informed of the locations of these water points and educated in how to identify and operate them. The creation of these water points would also better facilitate the movement of animal stocks to avoid migration over croplands, which can cause conflicts between pastoralists and farmers.
Community consultation is required to ensure boreholes are placed in locations that maximize equitable access and minimize conflict between communities.
Increased access to markets:. In the medium- and long-term, access to markets is essential to broaden economic opportunities in northern Nigeria. A minority of farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa have access to reliable and accurate information on agricultural inputs and output prices. Similarly, many pastoralists are poorly connected to markets and lack the knowledge to negotiate satisfactory prices effectively. Increased access to markets has been found to reduce farmers and pastoralists’ vulnerability to shocks or seasonal crises.
Thus, we recommend training for farmers and pastoralists in market operations and crop and livestock preparation to enhance their likelihood of obtaining good prices in markets. A
n accompanying strategy could involve the use of mobile phones to share market information. Agricultural information is a key component to improving smallholder agricultural production yet, many rural farmers have no way of knowing the prices before they travel to the market due to poor communication facilities.
In a program implemented in Uganda, farmers reported using their cell phones to gain information about the market prices of inputs, such as seeds and pesticides, and their agricultural commodities which enabled them to negotiate and sell their produce at competitive prices.
While there is a significant urban-rural divide with regard to mobile-phone penetration, Nigeria is one of the most connected African countries which presents an opportunity for mobile-based strategies to increase the productivity of rural livelihoods.
In the long-term, greater access to markets also requires the construction of more markets as well as greater infrastructure investment in transportation routes to markets and post-harvest storage.
Launch new, more explicitly inclusive multi-stakeholder process to manage use and conservation of LCB
Framework
Importance of Dialogue
Cooperative Negotiation
Civil Org Level--LCBC ex
Govt level
Agreements--clear framework on how actions are implemented across all levels to ensure equitable use, allocation and management of resources necessary to sustain the livelihoods of the region
Cited as more successful pilot prog for multistackholder dialogue methods to improve coord and participation for protection of nat resources in basin
Location
Aim
Pic
Facilitate dialogue→ pub participation → various outcomes
Important initiatives from the middle level
Water Charter: binding framework; integrate and coord management of basin h20 resources by emphasizing roles and responsibilities of all stakeholders
Civil institutions developing projects to educate locals on advantages of the methods and technologies
Farmers on advantages of methods and techs that will alleviate misuse of water resources
* Programs focused on implementing the different models of public participation in which ppl who’ve historically been excluded from DMP
In this context, addressing the region’s poverty, resource scarcity, and changing livelihood opportunities will be key to limiting Boko Haram’s ability to recruit young people, reducing frictions between communities over land and water, and creating new opportunities for cooperation and conflict resolution.
--- Start by noting it’s a portion of the lake bed and that the largest remaining section of Lake Chad is on right corner…it’s larget than here it’s been cut off for space. Then point out borders (Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon) and point out small sections of water (each are about 5 miles wide and a few miles long)
---Over 2 million Nigerians rely on Lake Chad’s fisheries for employment. The industry in Nigeria alone catches 50,000 tons of fish, but as you can see the lake is shrinking dramatically and is no longer a single lake. Other users include farmers and pastoralists, although as you can see there isn’t a lot of water left even for fisheries alone.
--
In order to restore the Lake there’s been talk of a large inter-basin transfer project from the Congo River Basin to the Lake Chad Basin. It was first proposed in 1988 by an italian consulting firm but more recently it’s been proposed by all of the heads of state of the countries of the basin. The plan is basically to transfer water from a tributary of the Congo River, the Oubangi River to the Fafa River and the Chari River. The transfer to the Fafa uses a system of pumps and the transfer to the Chari is via the construction on a canal and the widening of the Chari River (the vast majority of this would be powered by gravity across a plateau). The proposal emphasizes benefits for both basins…. Hydroelectric power generation in the Congo Basin, water for Lake Chad to be used for agriculture and to replenish the lake, which ultimately should benefit fisheries as well as protect and slowly replenish groundwater
Furthermore the enlargement of the Chari River and the construction of the canal will create a navigable waterway between the basins which, in theory, will significantly increase trade between basins which shoudl be mutually beneficial for all of the involved countries.
The cost of the project has been estimated at $23 billion and in 2015 Nigeria asked members of the G7 for $14 billion in funding.
In order to evaluate how realistic such a project is, it’s worht taking a quick look at the Lesotho Highlands Water Project between South Africa and Lesotho. This inter-basin transfer was not a peacebuilding project and was only between two countries but there are still lessons learned to learn:
That project was widely considered successful even though South Africa is a hegemon and Lesotho is one of the poorest countries on the continent, it benefited both states by providing electricity and money, in the form of royalties for water, to Lesotho and provided South Africa with water that it needs to support commerce and industry in the city of Johannasburg
A fund was created in Lesotho to distribute portions of royaty payments to Lesotho but ultimately money from that fund wasn’t actually distrubuted like it was supposed to. Thus the World Bank notes that the project didn’t help with poverty alleviation in Lesotho. It also affected livelihoods, as over 100 families were relocated and not properly compensated and there were restrictions placed on using the reservoirs in Lesotho. The Lake Chad Replenishment project needs to have a better system of minimizing, if not eliminating, displacement and creating a much better system of compensation for those moved. It also needs to create a means in which water can be used freely by all users
Furthermore, the cost of water in South Africa that comes from the project is especialy high, which is fine for large companies but doesn’t benefit small-scale users.
We can apply those lessons to the Lake Chad Replenishment Project to develop a better project. The ultimate purpose of this project in our peacebuilding plan is to ensure economic security and a path for livelihoods.
First user access to the water needs to be addressed, and payments towards Congo Basin countries may be necessary. However, there needs to be a means of offering free use to low-income users of all types, including farmers, access to fishermen and women, and access to pastoralists who pass the lake and its rivers periodically. The project already has support from all the Chad Basin states, but support is necessary from Congo Basin states, specifically Republic of the Congo and Democratic Republic of the Congo. They fear the water withdrawals will create a negative impact on the Congo River due since the Oubangi is a major tributary. Therefore the amount of water transfer, which has yet to be determined, needs to be able to provide benefits for one side without negatively impacting the other, but having a significant source of carbon free electricity could be beneficial if Central African Republic, Republic of the Congo, and the DRC can find a way to agree to share the resources. A commission should be created representing countries from both basins to oversee the project and to address issues that arise between countries. Ultimately the promise of trade is unlikely to be enough alone, but the promise of hydropower is likely to go a long way. Environmental concerns need to be addressed as well. If the impact is too great, on both the environment and on people who may need to be displaced, then the project may not be feasible. At this point, however, we recommend the consideration of this project, and we recommend that the project should go forward if our concerns can be properly addressed.
To conclude here’s a look at our peacebuilding strategy again. In the short term our strategy addresses youth unemployment and sustainable livelihoods, followed by addressing water and land use agreements in the medium and long terms. Starting now consideration should be given towards developing and analyzing the replenishment of lake chad’s basin, but only if the concerns we noted earlier can be properly addressed.
GO TO FINAL (title) SLIDE and Thank You.
