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Complexity and chaos in remote
schools
Remote Education Systems project
Adelaide, 24 June 2015
Introduction
• Outline
• Complexity theory and complex adaptive systems
• Empirical evidence of complexity from RES data
• Why past remote education interventions have failed
• What we should do differently, taking complexity into account
• Theoretical and conceptual foundations
• Bat, M., & Guenther, J. (2013). Red Dirt Thinking on Education: A People-Based System. The Australian
Journal of Indigenous Education, 42(Special Issue 02), doi:10.1017/jie.2013.20
• Remote education systems: what are they?
• Complexity as a counternarrative to disadvantage
2
Complexity theory
3
Complexity Theory: origins in systems science
Simple: ordered, predictable
Complicated: cause and effect, but needs more analysis
Complex: non-linear, unpredictable causes and effects
Chaotic: no relationship between input and output
Cynefin Framework
Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems
• Large number of elements
• Networked in multiple ways
• Continuous interactions
• Co-evolving relationships
• Self-organising
• Patterns emerge from
interactions
• Tend toward maximum entropy
unless they receive energy from
their environment
• “Balanced between order and anarchy, at
the edge of chaos” (Dodder and Dare
2000:3)
4
http://etec.ctlt.ubc.ca/510wiki/Complexity_Theory
Some applications (among many more)
• Economics (McGregor, 2012)
• Socio-ecological systems (Levin et al., 2013).
• Solving ‘wicked’ problems (Head & O’Flynn, 2015)
• Explains dynamics of organisations (Callahan & Milne, 2004)
• Organisational leadership (Schneider & Somers, 2006)
• Strategy development (Hammer et al., 2012)
• Research and evaluation (Rogers, 2008; Westhorp, 2012)
• Educational philosophy (Mason, 2008)
• Education theory (Davis & Sumara, 2010)
• Education system reform (Snyder, 2013)
• Strategic policy: shifting systems (Boal & Schultz, 2007; Bates
2012; Brown 2010)
5
RES project Aim
• To find out how remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander
communities can get the best benefit from the teaching and learning
happening in and out of schools.
Research questions
• What is education for and what can/should it achieve?
• What defines ‘success’ from the remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait
Islander standpoint?
• How does teaching need to change to achieve ‘success’?
• What would an effective education system in remote Australia look
like?
6
RES Project data sources
• Publicly available datasets (my school and Census)
• Community surveys in 10 remote communities
• Observations from site visits in 3 jurisdictions (WA, SA, NT)
• Engagement of over 200 remote education stakeholders in
research processes (20 Thinking Outside The Tank sessions)
• Dare to Lead Snapshots in 31 Very Remote schools
• Reading of the relevant research literature
• 6 Post-graduate research projects in progress
7
Very remote Australian Community Schools
8
>1000 discrete communities
with
~160 very remote schools with
>80% Aboriginal or Torres Strait
Islander students with
~17000 students enrolled
Commonwealth of Australia. (2007). Discrete Indigenous Communities: Australian Geographical Classification Remoteness Structure. Retrieved
October 2014 from
http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/499711EC612FF76ECA2574520010E1FE/$File/communitymap.pdf.
Descriptions of complexity in the RES data
9
System element Theme Key points
Family context Family dynamics Competing family priorities and pressures, family responsibilities, parenting,
intergenerational change
Social context Social issues Fighting, kids wandering around at night, shame, housing, teasing, thrill of
violence, poverty
Substance abuse Alcohol and drugs
Mobility Movement in and out of towns
Mistrust Lack of trust in institutions
Student context Students and agency Not just about presenting behaviours, students make choices, ‘boss of the
parents’
Student health and
wellbeing
Health, suicide, safety
Cultural context Cultural priorities Death and funerals, cultural differences, law and ceremonies
Language and identity Multiple languages, English language acquisition
Purpose of school No reason to engage
Cultural change ‘halfway between nowhere’
School context Teachers and teaching Multiple roles and responsibilities, relationships with community, experience,
professional standards, misunderstanding of context
Stress and frustration Teacher burnout
Flexibility Need for adaptability and flexibility
Policy context Policy environment Policy doesn’t recognise complexity, inability to respond to unique
situations, tensions for policy makers
Resourcing Funding cycles, uncertainty, available human resourcing
Welfare Disincentives, stigma of work, expectations of youth allowance payments
Racism Lack of support for Aboriginal teachers
Disconnected services Agencies not working together, lack of integration
Diagrammatic representation of remote education
systems
10
Complexity at the
edge of chaos in
remote education
Student issues
Language and
cultural identity
Family issues
School issues
Policy
environment
Social issues
agency
trauma
health and wellbeing
safetyviolence
mobility
substance abuse
stress and frustration
welfare disincentives
racism
disconnected services
why school?
resourcing
(dis)trust
cultural change
staff support
(in)flexibility
family expectations
curriculum
teacher standards
teacher preparation
funerals
neglect
Industry/
employment
issues
Training/
further
education
issues
cultural priorities
Alignments with complexity theory
• Large number of system elements interacting with each other at
multiple levels
• Recognisable patterns (truancy, teacher turnover, health and
wellbeing issues, competing cultural priorities, violence and
mobility and student agency)
• Remote education systems don’t behave as simple systems:
unpredictable outcomes, non-linear logic
11
Why have past interventions in remote education failed?
1. They assume simple causal pathways that don’t exist
2. They make assumptions about the system that aren’t shared by
local people
3. They fail to take account of all the elements of the system
4. They compete against other interventions that may work against
system change
5. They often assume that the impact of interventions will work
‘simply’
6. They fail to take into account the system’s tendency to maximise
entropy
7. They fail to acknowledge the connections within the system
12
If remote education systems were ‘complex’ what would
we do differently?
1. Take account of
uncertainty and
unpredictability
2. Engage all system
elements with
collaborative and
adaptive leadership
3. Practice processes of
collective inquiry
4. Narrate a shared
vision over time
13
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
1981 1986 1996 2001 2006 2011
Percentageof15+populationwho
hadnotattendedschool
Census year
Did not attend school (whole population)
Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders
Sources: ABS Census publications, * Note that in 1991 the publicly available Census
information did not show numbers of those who did not attend school. Aboriginal
and Torres Strait Islander data is not available prior to the 2001 Census.
Percentage of people aged 15+ who had never attended school at Census points,
1981* to 2011 for the NT
Conclusions
• Complexity Theory may be a useful lens to through which to view
remote education systems
• BUT, in the RES data it was mainly non-remote people who
described it in these terms.
• Remote education systems fit criteria of Complex Adaptive Systems
• BUT strategic policy has largely failed to come to grips with the
significance of this and to a large extent has failed as a result.
• An effective response to complexity would see
• a focus on emergent practice rather than best practice;
• collaborative leadership that engages all the system stakeholders;
• a process of collective inquiry that draws on the knowledges of all the
system actors; and
• ongoing development of a consistent narrative, allowing time for the
vision for education to become shared by all stakeholders.
14
Suggested readings
Bat, M., & Guenther, J. (2013). Red Dirt Thinking on Education: A People-Based
System. The Australian Journal of Indigenous Education, 42(Special Issue
02), 123-135. doi:10.1017/jie.2013.20
Guenther, J., & McRae-Williams, E. (2015). The training and employment challenge of
remote communities: Is collaboration the solution? Paper presented at the
AVETRA 18th Annual Conference, Melbourne.
Guenther, J., Galbraith, M., Moss, B., & Dhamarrandji, P. (2015). Practice based best
evidence: What evidence base counts when evaluating good practice in
program delivery? Paper presented at the AIFS Knowledge Circle Webinar
Series. Webinar retrieved from
https://www2.aifs.gov.au/cfca/knowledgecircle/news-events/practice-based-
best-evidence-what-evidence-base-counts-when
15
Questions for discussion
1. Does it make a difference that local Aboriginal people don’t see
remote education as complex?
2. What can universities do to prepare new teachers for the
complexities they will face in remote teaching?
3. What could school leaders do with complexity theory?
4. Where does the urgency for change in remote education systems
come from?
5. What are the implications for measuring success in complex
systems?
6. Are remote education systems that much different to rural,
regional or urban systems?
16
More about RES
http://crc-rep.com/remote-education-systems
John Guenther
0412 125 661
john.guenther@flinders.edu.au
17

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Complexity and Chaos in remote schools

  • 1. Complexity and chaos in remote schools Remote Education Systems project Adelaide, 24 June 2015
  • 2. Introduction • Outline • Complexity theory and complex adaptive systems • Empirical evidence of complexity from RES data • Why past remote education interventions have failed • What we should do differently, taking complexity into account • Theoretical and conceptual foundations • Bat, M., & Guenther, J. (2013). Red Dirt Thinking on Education: A People-Based System. The Australian Journal of Indigenous Education, 42(Special Issue 02), doi:10.1017/jie.2013.20 • Remote education systems: what are they? • Complexity as a counternarrative to disadvantage 2
  • 3. Complexity theory 3 Complexity Theory: origins in systems science Simple: ordered, predictable Complicated: cause and effect, but needs more analysis Complex: non-linear, unpredictable causes and effects Chaotic: no relationship between input and output Cynefin Framework
  • 4. Characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems • Large number of elements • Networked in multiple ways • Continuous interactions • Co-evolving relationships • Self-organising • Patterns emerge from interactions • Tend toward maximum entropy unless they receive energy from their environment • “Balanced between order and anarchy, at the edge of chaos” (Dodder and Dare 2000:3) 4 http://etec.ctlt.ubc.ca/510wiki/Complexity_Theory
  • 5. Some applications (among many more) • Economics (McGregor, 2012) • Socio-ecological systems (Levin et al., 2013). • Solving ‘wicked’ problems (Head & O’Flynn, 2015) • Explains dynamics of organisations (Callahan & Milne, 2004) • Organisational leadership (Schneider & Somers, 2006) • Strategy development (Hammer et al., 2012) • Research and evaluation (Rogers, 2008; Westhorp, 2012) • Educational philosophy (Mason, 2008) • Education theory (Davis & Sumara, 2010) • Education system reform (Snyder, 2013) • Strategic policy: shifting systems (Boal & Schultz, 2007; Bates 2012; Brown 2010) 5
  • 6. RES project Aim • To find out how remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander communities can get the best benefit from the teaching and learning happening in and out of schools. Research questions • What is education for and what can/should it achieve? • What defines ‘success’ from the remote Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander standpoint? • How does teaching need to change to achieve ‘success’? • What would an effective education system in remote Australia look like? 6
  • 7. RES Project data sources • Publicly available datasets (my school and Census) • Community surveys in 10 remote communities • Observations from site visits in 3 jurisdictions (WA, SA, NT) • Engagement of over 200 remote education stakeholders in research processes (20 Thinking Outside The Tank sessions) • Dare to Lead Snapshots in 31 Very Remote schools • Reading of the relevant research literature • 6 Post-graduate research projects in progress 7
  • 8. Very remote Australian Community Schools 8 >1000 discrete communities with ~160 very remote schools with >80% Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander students with ~17000 students enrolled Commonwealth of Australia. (2007). Discrete Indigenous Communities: Australian Geographical Classification Remoteness Structure. Retrieved October 2014 from http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/499711EC612FF76ECA2574520010E1FE/$File/communitymap.pdf.
  • 9. Descriptions of complexity in the RES data 9 System element Theme Key points Family context Family dynamics Competing family priorities and pressures, family responsibilities, parenting, intergenerational change Social context Social issues Fighting, kids wandering around at night, shame, housing, teasing, thrill of violence, poverty Substance abuse Alcohol and drugs Mobility Movement in and out of towns Mistrust Lack of trust in institutions Student context Students and agency Not just about presenting behaviours, students make choices, ‘boss of the parents’ Student health and wellbeing Health, suicide, safety Cultural context Cultural priorities Death and funerals, cultural differences, law and ceremonies Language and identity Multiple languages, English language acquisition Purpose of school No reason to engage Cultural change ‘halfway between nowhere’ School context Teachers and teaching Multiple roles and responsibilities, relationships with community, experience, professional standards, misunderstanding of context Stress and frustration Teacher burnout Flexibility Need for adaptability and flexibility Policy context Policy environment Policy doesn’t recognise complexity, inability to respond to unique situations, tensions for policy makers Resourcing Funding cycles, uncertainty, available human resourcing Welfare Disincentives, stigma of work, expectations of youth allowance payments Racism Lack of support for Aboriginal teachers Disconnected services Agencies not working together, lack of integration
  • 10. Diagrammatic representation of remote education systems 10 Complexity at the edge of chaos in remote education Student issues Language and cultural identity Family issues School issues Policy environment Social issues agency trauma health and wellbeing safetyviolence mobility substance abuse stress and frustration welfare disincentives racism disconnected services why school? resourcing (dis)trust cultural change staff support (in)flexibility family expectations curriculum teacher standards teacher preparation funerals neglect Industry/ employment issues Training/ further education issues cultural priorities
  • 11. Alignments with complexity theory • Large number of system elements interacting with each other at multiple levels • Recognisable patterns (truancy, teacher turnover, health and wellbeing issues, competing cultural priorities, violence and mobility and student agency) • Remote education systems don’t behave as simple systems: unpredictable outcomes, non-linear logic 11
  • 12. Why have past interventions in remote education failed? 1. They assume simple causal pathways that don’t exist 2. They make assumptions about the system that aren’t shared by local people 3. They fail to take account of all the elements of the system 4. They compete against other interventions that may work against system change 5. They often assume that the impact of interventions will work ‘simply’ 6. They fail to take into account the system’s tendency to maximise entropy 7. They fail to acknowledge the connections within the system 12
  • 13. If remote education systems were ‘complex’ what would we do differently? 1. Take account of uncertainty and unpredictability 2. Engage all system elements with collaborative and adaptive leadership 3. Practice processes of collective inquiry 4. Narrate a shared vision over time 13 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 1981 1986 1996 2001 2006 2011 Percentageof15+populationwho hadnotattendedschool Census year Did not attend school (whole population) Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders Sources: ABS Census publications, * Note that in 1991 the publicly available Census information did not show numbers of those who did not attend school. Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander data is not available prior to the 2001 Census. Percentage of people aged 15+ who had never attended school at Census points, 1981* to 2011 for the NT
  • 14. Conclusions • Complexity Theory may be a useful lens to through which to view remote education systems • BUT, in the RES data it was mainly non-remote people who described it in these terms. • Remote education systems fit criteria of Complex Adaptive Systems • BUT strategic policy has largely failed to come to grips with the significance of this and to a large extent has failed as a result. • An effective response to complexity would see • a focus on emergent practice rather than best practice; • collaborative leadership that engages all the system stakeholders; • a process of collective inquiry that draws on the knowledges of all the system actors; and • ongoing development of a consistent narrative, allowing time for the vision for education to become shared by all stakeholders. 14
  • 15. Suggested readings Bat, M., & Guenther, J. (2013). Red Dirt Thinking on Education: A People-Based System. The Australian Journal of Indigenous Education, 42(Special Issue 02), 123-135. doi:10.1017/jie.2013.20 Guenther, J., & McRae-Williams, E. (2015). The training and employment challenge of remote communities: Is collaboration the solution? Paper presented at the AVETRA 18th Annual Conference, Melbourne. Guenther, J., Galbraith, M., Moss, B., & Dhamarrandji, P. (2015). Practice based best evidence: What evidence base counts when evaluating good practice in program delivery? Paper presented at the AIFS Knowledge Circle Webinar Series. Webinar retrieved from https://www2.aifs.gov.au/cfca/knowledgecircle/news-events/practice-based- best-evidence-what-evidence-base-counts-when 15
  • 16. Questions for discussion 1. Does it make a difference that local Aboriginal people don’t see remote education as complex? 2. What can universities do to prepare new teachers for the complexities they will face in remote teaching? 3. What could school leaders do with complexity theory? 4. Where does the urgency for change in remote education systems come from? 5. What are the implications for measuring success in complex systems? 6. Are remote education systems that much different to rural, regional or urban systems? 16
  • 17. More about RES http://crc-rep.com/remote-education-systems John Guenther 0412 125 661 john.guenther@flinders.edu.au 17