Abstract: Two case studies: 1) introducing an inpit crushing & conveying system v.s. shovel &
trucking in a large dump reclamation project and 2) long term pumping v.s. encapsulation of a
very large, leaching, underground toxic waste storage, are presented to show that risks as a
discriminant parameter should be used for successful long term planning at the inception of any
project to manage rational decisions. One case is dealt with qualitatively at the prefeasibility
level and the other quantitatively at the preliminary design level.
At the prefeasibility level it is shown that graphic methodologies coupled with simple
procedures can efficiently pinpoint weakness areas, leading to better decisions and thus
appropriate mitigations. At the preliminary design level we show innovative approaches, which
eliminate the pitfalls of Net Present Value (NPV), a financial evaluator still used by many. The
NPV is replaced by an analytical tool called Comparative Decision Analysis/Economic Safety
Margin (CDA/ESMTM), used to compare alternatives in financial terms including: a) life’s cycle
balance encompassing internal and external risks over a selected duration, b) project
implementation and demobilization costs and risks. CDA/ESM has been successfully applied to:
rope v.s. road transportation, surface v.s. underground solutions, environmental projects,
transportation networks and go/nogo decisions.
Résumé: Deux études de cas sont présentées: 1) Introduction dans une mine à ciel ouvert d'un
concasseur couplé à une courroie transporteuse en remplacement de la classique solution
excavatricecamionnage pour la mise en demeure des stériles, 2) Pompage comparativement à
l'encapsulation a long terme d'un très grand stockage souterrain des déchets toxiques. Le but est
de montrer que les risques devraient être utilisés comme paramètre discriminant pour opérer des
décisions rationnelles, conduisant à la réussite de la planification à long terme, et ceci depuis le
début de n'importe quel projet. Le 1er cas est traité qualitativement au niveau de la préfaisabilité,
les autres quantitativement au niveau de la conception préliminaire.
Au niveau de préfaisabilité, il est démontré que les méthodes graphiques de pair avec des
procédures simples peuvent identifier efficacement les zones de faiblesse et de conduire à de
meilleures décisions, ce qui permet une réduction appropriée des risques. Au niveau de la
conception préliminaire, nous montrons des approches novatrices qui permettent d'éliminer les
pièges de la valeur actuelle nette (VAN), un outil financier encore généralement utilisé. La VAN
est remplacée par un outil d'Analyse Comparative de Decision / Marge de Sécurité Economique
(CDA/ESMTM), qui sert à comparer des alternatives en termes financiers, notamment: a) le cycle
de vie englobant les risques internes et externes, au cours d'une durée sélectionnée, b) le coûts et
les risques d'implémentation et de démobilisation . La CDA/ESMTM a été appliquée avec succès
au mode de transport par câble contre celui routier; aux solutions de surfaces contre celles sous
terraines, à des projets environnementaux , des réseaux de transport et des décisions oui/non.
Experience with the Design of Logical Frameworks and the Evaluation of Delive...Iwl Pcu
David Vousden (Agulhas and Somali Current Large Marine Ecosystem)
Presentation given during the 5th GEF Biennial International Waters Conference in Cairns, Australia during the project management workshop on IW indicators.
This study examined principal risks affecting performance in the Nigeria’s east-west coastal highway
project. The objective was to identify critical risks and their allocation preference. The study involved a
two tier descriptive research processes. The first stage involved 10 high profile engineering design
consultants and 6 projects managers, and the second stage was a survey of 66 construction/projects
managers in Akwa Ibom and Rivers states, Nigeria. During the first stage, respondents were presented
with a risk register containing 245 risk factors relating to the pre-construction stages to determine their
applicability in the project. In the second phase, critical risks were ranked for degree of impact and
likelihood of occurrence. Risk matrix was used to map risk impact and probability. Among the high
impact/probability risk factors are government lack of political will; change in government, and
corruption. 66% of the risks are allocated to contractor while the client bears only 34%. To ensure smooth
delivery of the project, the study advocates the allocation of all policy; economic, financial, social,
environmental, and technological risks to the client based on their shifting nature and existing contractual
practice. The study provides an in-depth risk analysis and a comprehensive risk register for managing
risks apparent in the project.
Experience with the Design of Logical Frameworks and the Evaluation of Delive...Iwl Pcu
David Vousden (Agulhas and Somali Current Large Marine Ecosystem)
Presentation given during the 5th GEF Biennial International Waters Conference in Cairns, Australia during the project management workshop on IW indicators.
This study examined principal risks affecting performance in the Nigeria’s east-west coastal highway
project. The objective was to identify critical risks and their allocation preference. The study involved a
two tier descriptive research processes. The first stage involved 10 high profile engineering design
consultants and 6 projects managers, and the second stage was a survey of 66 construction/projects
managers in Akwa Ibom and Rivers states, Nigeria. During the first stage, respondents were presented
with a risk register containing 245 risk factors relating to the pre-construction stages to determine their
applicability in the project. In the second phase, critical risks were ranked for degree of impact and
likelihood of occurrence. Risk matrix was used to map risk impact and probability. Among the high
impact/probability risk factors are government lack of political will; change in government, and
corruption. 66% of the risks are allocated to contractor while the client bears only 34%. To ensure smooth
delivery of the project, the study advocates the allocation of all policy; economic, financial, social,
environmental, and technological risks to the client based on their shifting nature and existing contractual
practice. The study provides an in-depth risk analysis and a comprehensive risk register for managing
risks apparent in the project.
This presentation discusses the potential of mobile as a marketing medium in India, and the strategies marketers and agencies can adopt for optimum results. It also gives examples of great campaigns worldwide with relevant learnings. Th presentation ends with discussing the issues and solutions to the same.
Traditional Risk Assessments use "heat maps", or risk matrices, to develop rankings, leading to decision making on projects, operations. Risks are ranked from larger to lower, sometimes splitting them into three or more classes of criticality.
Those approaches may be complaint with ISO31000, ONR49000, COSO, but they are not the best you can do!
As we will show in this paper, they actually lack in focus and transparency. Ingenious methods allow to reuse those data, however, and make far better decisions based on rational and sustainable rankings.
A presentation from the 2008 HIV Health and Treatments Update forum held in Sydney on 25 Nov 2008.
Part 5: putting it all together - closing remarks by Jason Appleby.
Powering Scientific Discovery with the Semantic Web (VanBUG 2014)Michel Dumontier
In the quest to translate the results biomedical research into effective clinical applications, many are now trying to make sense of the large and rapidly growing amount of public biomedical data. However, substantial challenges exist in traversing the currently fragmented data landscape. In this talk, I will discuss our efforts to use Semantic Web technologies to facilitate biomedical research through the formulation, publication, integration, and exploration of facts, expert knowledge, and web services.
This presentation discusses the potential of mobile as a marketing medium in India, and the strategies marketers and agencies can adopt for optimum results. It also gives examples of great campaigns worldwide with relevant learnings. Th presentation ends with discussing the issues and solutions to the same.
Traditional Risk Assessments use "heat maps", or risk matrices, to develop rankings, leading to decision making on projects, operations. Risks are ranked from larger to lower, sometimes splitting them into three or more classes of criticality.
Those approaches may be complaint with ISO31000, ONR49000, COSO, but they are not the best you can do!
As we will show in this paper, they actually lack in focus and transparency. Ingenious methods allow to reuse those data, however, and make far better decisions based on rational and sustainable rankings.
A presentation from the 2008 HIV Health and Treatments Update forum held in Sydney on 25 Nov 2008.
Part 5: putting it all together - closing remarks by Jason Appleby.
Powering Scientific Discovery with the Semantic Web (VanBUG 2014)Michel Dumontier
In the quest to translate the results biomedical research into effective clinical applications, many are now trying to make sense of the large and rapidly growing amount of public biomedical data. However, substantial challenges exist in traversing the currently fragmented data landscape. In this talk, I will discuss our efforts to use Semantic Web technologies to facilitate biomedical research through the formulation, publication, integration, and exploration of facts, expert knowledge, and web services.
Theoretical Risk Identification within the Nigeria East- West Coastal Highway...civejjour
This study examined principal risks affecting performance in the Nigeria’s east-west coastal highway project. The objective was to identify critical risks and their allocation preference. The study involved a two tier descriptive research processes. The first stage involved 10 high profile engineering design consultants and 6 projects managers, and the second stage was a survey of 66 construction/projects managers in Akwa Ibom and Rivers states, Nigeria. During the first stage, respondents were presented with a risk register containing 245 risk factors relating to the pre-construction stages to determine their applicability in the project. In the second phase, critical risks were ranked for degree of impact and likelihood of occurrence. Risk matrix was used to map risk impact and probability. Among the high impact/probability risk factors are government lack of political will; change in government, and corruption. 66% of the risks are allocated to contractor while the client bears only 34%. To ensure smooth delivery of the project, the study advocates the allocation of all policy; economic, financial, social, environmental, and technological risks to the client based on their shifting nature and existing contractual practice. The study provides an in-depth risk analysis and a comprehensive risk register for managing risks apparent in the project
This Presentation Uses Two Case Studies
to Show How Risk Can Be Used as a
Discriminant in Decision Making for Key
Decisions, in:
Key
Areas of a Corporation,
Selecting
Alternatives,
Evaluating
Projects
In the second Case Study, a method that
eliminates the pitfalls of NPV is presented.
CDA / ESM eliminates the pitfalls of NPV, an obsolete
financial concept still used by many.
The evaluation of a project with CDA/ESM includes:
the
annual risks potentially afflicting the project,
construction
risks,
risks
of malfunctioning, and possibly also the
demolition/
reclamation costs.
Risk analysis for project decision-making
Presented by Keith Gray
Monday 10th October 2016
APM North West branch and Risk SIG conference
Alderley Park, Macclesfield
Riskope has moved to their new site.
All our freely downloadable documents and blog will be stored there from now on.
Come visit, follow and register as readers.
This course is suitable for anyone who is involved in process hazards, risk quantification and preparation of 360 degrees, holistic, ISO 31000 compliant Risk Assessment for business, operations, projects.
The methodologies introduced in this course will greatly benefit money lenders, insurers in addition to corporate managers, upper management.
You should attend if you:
Want to do your best to ensure your business survival by proactively managing risks and crises.
Want to ensure healthy coverage (as an insurance, as an insured) and money lending (as a debtor, as a lender).
Want to be able to understand how the situation around and inside your company evolve and want to make sure you take advantage of the opportunities that arise.
Care about your workers, people, society and understand that it is important to leave a legacy that is better than the one you received.
Capitalize on the expert knowledge to gain maximum value on these vital issues:
IDENTIFY the risks that really matter and have the potential to disrupt your business
CONVINCE money lenders that your business will be sustainable in a world of shrinking credits
DISCOVER the issues that could lead to crises possibly hampering your growth
PINPOINT the threat that is lurking in any commercial contract, ready to bite you
EXAMINE what can you do if your insurance denies your next coverage
ANALYZE how can you best support the next critical decision in a transparent, rational way
EVALUATE what you can do by yourself and what should be done by a risk consultant; as well as REALIZE what you can ask from a risk consultant and what he should deliver
GENERATE value and proactively defend your business by understanding your business risk and crisis landscape.
Presentation given on May 6th at CIM 2013 Toronto.
A discussion on the reasons that lead to the generalized public distrust phenomena, how better risk assessments would help reduce distrust and support better decisions.
Riskope were recently asked to provide a comprehensive five day course addressing Risk and Crisis Management, Risk Based Decision Making, Project Evaluation for top managers and key personnel at Investment Banks, Oil & Gas, Energy and Transportation.
Although companies willing to commit the resources for a five days intensive courses remain limited, we felt like it would be a good idea to share the program with our readership, as an example.
Of course our courses are scalable, from a couple hours up to this exhaustive review and custom tailored courses can be set-up by selectively picking the themes that most interest you/your organization. You can download the example file here.
Contact us today to discuss your custom made in house Risk and Crisis Management, Risk Based Decision Making, Project Evaluation! Armed with the skills you'll learn from Riskope you will have a competitive edge on your competitors, your ideas will be more defensible and sustainable, and your chances of success will multiply.
Es probable que en su empresa use una matriz semejante a una herramienta de ERM. (Manejo de Riesgo Empresarial, por sigla en inglés) ¡Su negocio merece algo mejor que esta primitiva herramienta! Dirija su empresa usando toda la información disponible resumida en un Puesto de Mando Corporativo, ORE! Estimación de riesgo óptima. Ahora puede manejar con seguridad.
Tailings systems in mines are often the object of Risk Assessments. Unfortunately common practices in Risk Assessment, using PIGs (Probability Impact Graphs) are arbitrary, lead to confusing and fuzzy results, offer very little decision making support and misrepresent reality. After demonstrating these pitfalls, the presentation shows how to do better by using ORE (Optimum Risk Estimates), a methodology developed by Riskope.
Riskope has developed a proprietary application that allows to package ORE results into cockpits addressing top and mid-management concerns, allowing strategic integration of risks in corporate policies.
Terremotos, tsunamis, terrorismo, guerra cibernética, incertidumbres económicas ¿Están todavía preguntandose porqué necesitan gestión de riesgos y modernas herramientas de decisión?
The Balangero asbestos open pit mine, located 35km NW of Torino (Italy), was the largest operation of this kind in Western Europe. The dry tailings were lifted by a conveyor belt from the mill and dumped over a natural slope with an approximate angle of 25 degrees, progressively reaching a maximum thickness estimated at 80 m.
By the '80s the dump was deeply scarred by various local and large scale instabilities, to the point that houses located at the toe, on the opposite side of the valley, were evacuated.
The award winning restoration project used a multidisciplinary approach including hydraulics, geotechnical, pedological and risk engineering to yield a well balanced and sustainable solution. This paper illustrates the Risk Based Decision Making (RBDM) process used through the feasibility, design and construction follow-up of the environmental restoration of the 60 Mm3 dry Balangero asbestos tailings dump.
The slopes were hit by storm Quinn and Medicane Rolf and came out unscathed. That was after surviving heavy summer storms in 2010 and 2011.
This example, that we presented at the WLF2 Conference in Rome, constitutes a complete and fully developed which included the following phases:
probabilistic behaviour forecast,
behaviour monitoring (which luckily allowed to actually “see happen” what we had predicted a few years earlier),
Risk Based Decision Making (RBDM), and finally
implementation of mitigative and crisis management plan.
Interestingly, in a curious turn of events, while doing some reconnaissance work on the landslide, two of us almost lost our lives in a helicopter crash. Risk managers are unfortunately not immune to risks...and somehow it was a good lesson for us to be in the “victim role” that day.
This presentation was used in May 2011 at RIMS Conference, Mining and Metal Session.
Recent world-wide events have painfully shown many industries that natural hazards can impair ingress/egress capabilities in any business areas. Mining, passengers, automotive and event electronics companies have suffered major drawbacks from climate, seismic, fire tornadoes and other hazards.
The presentation shows that careful risk and crises evaluation, management and attentive mitigation can lead to higher survival rate and event to gain competitive edge on less prepared companies.
This presentation was used as a base for a talk resented at RIMS Conference in Vancouver, May 2011, Metals and Mining Session. Recent world-wide events have shown
Toma De Decisiones Basada
En Riesgo En La Minería y Otras Industrias
SEGUNDA PARTE
Al final de esta presentación habrán aprendido a:
Iniciar un plan de gestión de riesgo y manejo de crisis (R&CMP, por su sigla en inglés)
Obtener el máximo retorno sobre la inversión de su R&CMP
Integrar de forma transparente los riesgos positivos (ganancias) y negativos (exposiciones, crisis) en el proceso de toma de decisiones
Estar “más conscientes” del panorama general
Priorizar de manera adecuada las inversiones en mitigación contra las exposiciones a riesgos y crisis
Toma De Decisiones Basada
En Riesgo En La Minería y Otras Industrias
Al final de esta presentación habrán aprendido a:
Iniciar un plan de gestión de riesgo y manejo de crisis (R&CMP, por su sigla en inglés)
Obtener el máximo retorno sobre la inversión de su R&CMP
Integrar de forma transparente los riesgos positivos (ganancias) y negativos (exposiciones, crisis) en el proceso de toma de decisiones
Estar “más conscientes” del panorama general
Priorizar de manera adecuada las inversiones en mitigación contra las exposiciones a riesgos y crisis
If the Force Majeure Clause is properly written, with the help of a risk management specialist, then your contracts will be more robust.
Is something happens and one of the party invokes Force Majeure, then there will be less discussions, less chances to enter into litigation, and the situation will be resolved faster and cheaper.
Event Report - SAP Sapphire 2024 Orlando - lots of innovation and old challengesHolger Mueller
Holger Mueller of Constellation Research shares his key takeaways from SAP's Sapphire confernece, held in Orlando, June 3rd till 5th 2024, in the Orange Convention Center.
Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit and TemplatesAurelien Domont, MBA
This Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit was created by ex-McKinsey, Deloitte and BCG Management Consultants, after more than 5,000 hours of work. It is considered the world's best & most comprehensive Digital Transformation and IT Strategy Toolkit. It includes all the Frameworks, Best Practices & Templates required to successfully undertake the Digital Transformation of your organization and define a robust IT Strategy.
Editable Toolkit to help you reuse our content: 700 Powerpoint slides | 35 Excel sheets | 84 minutes of Video training
This PowerPoint presentation is only a small preview of our Toolkits. For more details, visit www.domontconsulting.com
Understanding User Needs and Satisfying ThemAggregage
https://www.productmanagementtoday.com/frs/26903918/understanding-user-needs-and-satisfying-them
We know we want to create products which our customers find to be valuable. Whether we label it as customer-centric or product-led depends on how long we've been doing product management. There are three challenges we face when doing this. The obvious challenge is figuring out what our users need; the non-obvious challenges are in creating a shared understanding of those needs and in sensing if what we're doing is meeting those needs.
In this webinar, we won't focus on the research methods for discovering user-needs. We will focus on synthesis of the needs we discover, communication and alignment tools, and how we operationalize addressing those needs.
Industry expert Scott Sehlhorst will:
• Introduce a taxonomy for user goals with real world examples
• Present the Onion Diagram, a tool for contextualizing task-level goals
• Illustrate how customer journey maps capture activity-level and task-level goals
• Demonstrate the best approach to selection and prioritization of user-goals to address
• Highlight the crucial benchmarks, observable changes, in ensuring fulfillment of customer needs
VAT Registration Outlined In UAE: Benefits and Requirementsuae taxgpt
Vat Registration is a legal obligation for businesses meeting the threshold requirement, helping companies avoid fines and ramifications. Contact now!
https://viralsocialtrends.com/vat-registration-outlined-in-uae/
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
Leading companies such as Nike, Toyota, and Siemens are prioritizing sustainable innovation in their business models, setting an example for others to follow. In this Sustainability training presentation, you will learn key concepts, principles, and practices of sustainability applicable across industries. This training aims to create awareness and educate employees, senior executives, consultants, and other key stakeholders, including investors, policymakers, and supply chain partners, on the importance and implementation of sustainability.
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
1. Develop a comprehensive understanding of the fundamental principles and concepts that form the foundation of sustainability within corporate environments.
2. Explore the sustainability implementation model, focusing on effective measures and reporting strategies to track and communicate sustainability efforts.
3. Identify and define best practices and critical success factors essential for achieving sustainability goals within organizations.
CONTENTS
1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
2. Principles and Practices of Sustainability
3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
3.0 Project 2_ Developing My Brand Identity Kit.pptxtanyjahb
A personal brand exploration presentation summarizes an individual's unique qualities and goals, covering strengths, values, passions, and target audience. It helps individuals understand what makes them stand out, their desired image, and how they aim to achieve it.
Recruiting in the Digital Age: A Social Media MasterclassLuanWise
In this masterclass, presented at the Global HR Summit on 5th June 2024, Luan Wise explored the essential features of social media platforms that support talent acquisition, including LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, X (formerly Twitter) and TikTok.
The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
Exploring Patterns of Connection with Social Dreaming
Comparing Alternatives Using CDA-ESM
1. STOP PROCRASTINATING! NPV IS DEAD: USE RISK AS A KEY
DECISION PARAMETER.
Cesar Oboni1 and Franco Oboni2
1
Oboni Riskope Associates Inc. Vancouver, BC, Canada, V6Z 2A9 coboni@riskope.com
2
Oboni Riskope International foboni@riskope.com
Abstract: Two case studies: 1) introducing an inpit crushing & conveying system v.s. shovel &
trucking in a large dump reclamation project and 2) long term pumping v.s. encapsulation of a
very large, leaching, underground toxic waste storage, are presented to show that risks as a
discriminant parameter should be used for successful long term planning at the inception of any
project to manage rational decisions. One case is dealt with qualitatively at the prefeasibility
level and the other quantitatively at the preliminary design level.
At the prefeasibility level it is shown that graphic methodologies coupled with simple
procedures can efficiently pinpoint weakness areas, leading to better decisions and thus
appropriate mitigations. At the preliminary design level we show innovative approaches, which
eliminate the pitfalls of Net Present Value (NPV), a financial evaluator still used by many. The
NPV is replaced by an analytical tool called Comparative Decision Analysis/Economic Safety
Margin (CDA/ESM™), used to compare alternatives in financial terms including: a) life’s cycle
balance encompassing internal and external risks over a selected duration, b) project
implementation and demobilization costs and risks. CDA/ESM has been successfully applied to:
rope v.s. road transportation, surface v.s. underground solutions, environmental projects,
transportation networks and go/nogo decisions.
Résumé: Deux études de cas sont présentées: 1) Introduction dans une mine à ciel ouvert d'un
concasseur couplé à une courroie transporteuse en remplacement de la classique solution
excavatricecamionnage pour la mise en demeure des stériles, 2) Pompage comparativement à
l'encapsulation a long terme d'un très grand stockage souterrain des déchets toxiques. Le but est
de montrer que les risques devraient être utilisés comme paramètre discriminant pour opérer des
décisions rationnelles, conduisant à la réussite de la planification à long terme, et ceci depuis le
début de n'importe quel projet. Le 1er cas est traité qualitativement au niveau de la préfaisabilité,
les autres quantitativement au niveau de la conception préliminaire.
Au niveau de préfaisabilité, il est démontré que les méthodes graphiques de pair avec des
procédures simples peuvent identifier efficacement les zones de faiblesse et de conduire à de
meilleures décisions, ce qui permet une réduction appropriée des risques. Au niveau de la
conception préliminaire, nous montrons des approches novatrices qui permettent d'éliminer les
pièges de la valeur actuelle nette (VAN), un outil financier encore généralement utilisé. La VAN
est remplacée par un outil d'Analyse Comparative de Decision / Marge de Sécurité Economique
(CDA/ESM™), qui sert à comparer des alternatives en termes financiers, notamment: a) le cycle
de vie englobant les risques internes et externes, au cours d'une durée sélectionnée, b) le coûts et
3. development plan where risks are used to drive the better design of projects and increased
sustainability.
Hazard, Exposures, Advantages & Disadvantages Identification
Advantages and disadvantages of the IPC&CS over S&T (representing the Status Quo), were
identified in a facilitated workshop session with the participation of key stakeholders. For
example reduced diesel consumption was flagged as an obvious advantage for IPC&CS whereas
necessary operational changes were considered a disadvantage. Advantages and disadvantages
were defined at first for an “ideal perfect alternative” such as a perfectly functioning IPC&CS
where obvious hazardous conditions and risk exposures would be mitigated to a satisfactory level
(i.e. the design covers “good sense issues” and represents “good engineering,” as discussed later).
The advantage/disadvantage session was immediately followedup by a hazard Identification
session. Hazards were categorized and recorded in a specific table which included the Category
of Hazard, Probability, Magnitude, Potential Target(s) and Qualitative Consequences.
Our prefeasibility qualitative risk analysis goal was to reduce the chances of a fatal flaw in the
design, by defining proper design parameters and bringing changes to the preliminary design
geared towards increasing the chances that the future implementation would work and perform as
intended. Of course the newly defined parameters and changes would have to be integrated in the
costs estimates in order to avoid the project possibly becoming a “financial fiasco.”
A prefeasibility study should cover a wide array of issues that could be seen as “good sense” or
“good engineering” in addition to the classic issues of a risk assessment. “Good sense” issues do
not generally require a detailed consequence analysis, to say it simply, if they are not somehow
dealt with the system will not perform as intended. This type of study represents a first proactive
step in the direction of facility risk management and includes risks as decision making
parameters. This concept is better explained with a plot (Figure 1) depicting risk mitigation
geared towards reaching specific levels of residual risks vs. mitigative investments.
In Figure 2 and 3, the black hexagon perimeter depicts the level of exposure of the base case. The
green and red hexagons represent reduced and increased exposures levels, respectively, for the
IPC&CS at this operation. The term “exposure” is used here to make clear the distinction
between a standard solution for the IPC&CS (one that is not customized to the company’s
particular conditions, thus is not mitigated to an appropriate level, and would most likely “not
work as intended”) and the preliminary design generated after our prefeasibility study (i.e. a
IPC&CS mitigated to such a point that it is equivalent to S&T). Once mitigations actions are
finally selected by the design team it becomes possible to develop a residual risk assessment
which should be quantitative and not qualitative, to verify the pertinence and level of the selected
mitigations alternatives (see Case Study 2).
Thus, Figure 2 depicts the comparison between IPC&CS and S&T at the considered coal mine
with no specific mitigations implemented. As a result, in this example, the Fossil Fuel and Tire
issues are depicted as lower exposures of the IPC&CS with respect to S&T, whereas extreme
4. cold and winds are depicted as an increased exposure of the IPC&CS (as this graph does not yet
take into account possible design mitigations). The Figure 3 concept is identical to the prior one,
but it depicts a situation where all the possible design mitigations identified for the IPC&CS
would have been brought into the design in order to at least equalize the exposures of the
IPC&CS to the ones of S&T.
The passage from the initial to
the mitigated exposure
landscape requires investment
and running expenses which
have to be integrated in the
cost estimates. The optimal
solution may be an
intermediate mitigation level
between the “green” (fully
mitigated) and the “red” (non
mitigated) landscapes, i.e., the
“yellow” line depicted in
Figure 4.
Consequences related to selec
Figure 1. Risk mitigation geared towards reaching specific levels ting an insufficient mitigation
of residual risks vs. mitigative investments. level may range from high to
catastrophic as the facility may
never work as intended. The
optimal solution will be
somewhere between the
"green" and "red" landscapes
presented in Figure 4 and is
represented by the "yellow"
line. In the next phase of the
project we will start looking at
the probabilities and residual
risks (after a level of
mitigation has been selected
by the design team based on
the results of the feasibility
study).
Preliminary Qualitative Risk
Assessment
Once the appropriate mitiga
Figure 2. Comparison between IPC&CS and S&T at the tion level for the issues
considered coal mine with no specific mitigations implemented. described in the prior section
5. are introduced in the design, the system will still be subject to two sets of risks: a) the residual
risks derived from design mitigated hazards (which depend, as pointed out earlier, on the level of
mitigation selected by the design team) and b) risks linked to other issues which may be
independent from design mitigation efforts because they find their roots in public/workforce
perception:
● Union/personnel unrest
● Public outcry linked to
dust and noise and
perceived hazards as
the new operation is
implemented, etc.
If the design mitigation level
are not sufficient, then the
following situations may
arise for the IPC&CS:
• Refusal to accept the
changes brought by the
implementation
• The system will not reach
the promised performance
level
• The company will not
produce the appropriate
product
Figure 3. Same as Fig. 2, but all the possible design mitigations •Repeated serviceability pro
identified for the IPC&CS would have been brought into the design blems
in order to at least equalize the exposures of the IPC&CS to the
ones of S&T. All of the last four points
could have large to
catastrophic consequences
for the project, and probabilities that will depend on the mitigation levels defined by the design
team. If the prefeasibility level is passed by the IPC&CS, the next step will be to review all of
the proposed mitigations, define the residual probabilities of failure and evaluate mitigation
alternatives.
As per the public/workforce perception issues, a well thought PR and information campaign,
including stakeholders participation, will greatly help in solving any arising issue before it
becomes a problem. Of course the criticality of the issues will be an inverse function of the
design mitigation level, and will directly influence the effort and investment directed to the
PR/information campaign.
6. Figure. 4 The difference between the two
exposures landscapes requires investment.
Case Study 2: Long Term Pumping v.s. Encapsulation of a Very Large,
Leaching, Underground Toxic Waste Storage.
This case considers a large underground storage of a toxic water soluble compound with the
potential to leach into the water table. In order to prevent the leaching a pumping system has been
installed. In the Status Quo, the permanent pumping system keeps the underground water level
below the lower level of the storage. However, water percolates from the surface and some of the
compound is dissolved, leading to the need to treat the pumped water. In the Status Quo, we will
assume there is negligible risk to the ecosystem and human health. The “financial parameters”
and risks linked to maintaining the Status Quo are summarized in Table 1 (in Million $, noted
M).
Cause/Hazard for Status Quo alternative Probability Cost M$
Capital investment will be necessary at start on the treatment plant 90% 5
Energy cost (diesel for the power plant) has a yearly chance of 30% to double
Climate changes has a yearly chance of 15% to triple
Table 1. “Financial parameters” of the Status Quo alternative.
The alternative to the Status Quo would be a Rehabilitation of the site, i.e. Encapsulation of the
underground storage (how that's done is not within the scope of this paper). The encapsulation
would require a large capital investment (120M), but afterwards the permanent pumping and
treatment would be reduced considerably.
Cause/Hazard for Encapsulation alternative Probability Cost M$
Capital investment has a chance to double (additional 120M) of 10% 120
Energy cost (diesel for the power plant) has a yearly chance of 30% to double
Climate changes can force to still pump like today despite the encapsulation 5% 3.6
work, with a chance of
Table 2. “Financial parameters” of the Ecapsulation alternative.
7. As this encapsulation constitutes a “first in the world,” a Risk Assessment has been performed
which has shown that there is a significant chance that the encapsulation may cost twice as
foreseen. The “financial parameters” and risks linked to building and maintaining the
Rehabilitation are summarized in Table 2 (in Million $, noted M).
Finally, because of uncertainties (construction, long term climate change, etc.) there is also a
chance that after developing the encapsulation as above (i.e. with the chance it may cost twice
the initially foreseen amount), it may be necessary to maintain pumping as in the Status Quo.
This means that despite investing in the encapsulation the project still does not work properly,
which is an example of a failed rehabilitation case or a worst case scenario.
Figure 5. Status Quo data sheet, as per the Riskope's CDAESM
application
Traditional NPV Analysis
As usual in mining projects let's use a Rate of Return of 9% for this analysis and consider a life
duration of forty years as an example. NB: the NPV are always marked as negative values in this
study to stress the fact that the project generates only expenses and no profits.
• Rehabilitation: 120M$ construction, then 0.3M$/yr, 40 years life span NPV: 123.23M$
• Status Quo: 3.6M$/yr, 40 years life span NPV: 42.33M$
What makes this case study particularly strong in building an argument against using NPV for
alternative selection is that most of the expense in Rehabilitation is upfront, and the yearly
expenses (as traditionally done, without the risks) are small, meanwhile the duration is very long
— in this case the NPV almost “nullifies” any expense coming after approximately 20 years.
It can be inferred by this simple analysis that the Status Quo has by far a better NPV value than
9. the effects of long term expenditures, and makes it essentially impossible to consider risks in a
proper way.
Table 3. Evaluation of the NPV of the Rehabilitation modified with Expected Return values.
Financial Parameters Costs Probability Expected Return
Construction 120M$ N/A 132M$, i.e expected fixed initial
Environmental Soundness 120M$ 10.00% expenses including “average risks”
Running Costs 0.3M$ N/A
Energy Price 2*0.3M$ 30.00% 0.66M$/yr, i.e. expected yearly
expenses including “average risks”
Climate Changes 3.6M$ 5.00%
40 years life span NPV 139M$
Figure 6. For each analysis: min, max, average of
the cumulative cost at forty years.
Table 4. Evaluation of the NPV of the Status Quo modified with Expected Return values.
Financial Parameters Costs Probability Expected Return
11.88M$ i.e expected fixed initial
Items as listed in Table 3, with appropriate average values expenses including “average risks”
7.36M$/yr i.e. expected yearly
expenses including “average risks”
40 years life span NPV 90.2M$
Furthermore, as depicted in Figure 7, for all probabilities of energy cost increase, the
Rehabilitation (yellow bar) is more costs efficient than the Status Quo (blue bar), once all the
three considered risks are included. So, again, if we consider the probabilities that the costs of
energy might be triple or more at any value of energy, the Status Quo alternative is less appealing
than Rehabilitation. Should more risk scenarios be included in the analysis, then we would see