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COMPUTABLE GENERAL
EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE):
BASICS
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
October 21st , 2013
UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE MADRID (UAM)
Saúl de Vicente Queijeiro
COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE)
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL
Data Source: structure of a SAM
Behavioral equations
Market-clearing conditions
SOLVING THE MODEL
Shock simulation
COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE)
DATA SOURCE: SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX (SAM)
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
SIMPLIFIED MODEL USING EXCEL
SIMPLIFIED MODEL USING GAMS
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL
EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS: SIMULATION
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL: CGE framework
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL: CGE framework-SAM
Structure (source: Breisinger et al, 2009)
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL: CGE
framework-SAM Structure
Activities Commodities Labor Capital Households Government Investment Rest of world Total
Activities 24,996 24,996
Commodities 12,029 12,142 1,805 4,680 5,151 35,807
Labor 9,717 9,717
Capital 3,250 3,250
Households 9,717 3,250 1,387 2,001 16,354
Government 2,372 940 739 4,052
Savings 3,272 860 548 4,680
Rest of world 8,439 8,439
Total 24,996 35,807 9,717 3,250 16,354 4,052 4,680 8,439
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
•GOODS: BREAD AND WINE
•FACTORS:
•CAPITAL
•LABOUR
•INSTITUTIONS: HOUSEHOLDS
BRD WIN CAP LAB HOH TOTAL
BRD 15 15
WIN 35 35
CAP 5 20 25
LAB 10 15 25
HOH 25 25 50
TOTAL 15 35 25 25 50
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
HOUSEHOLDS
S.T.
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
FIRMS
Max
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS
Market Equilibrium
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
CGE MODEL USING GAMS/EXCEL: STEPS
DEFINITION OF TABLE NAME AND ITS SUFFICES
LOADING DATA FROM SAM
DECLARING AND FULLFILING PARAMETERS (EXOGENOUS AND INITIAL VALUES OF ENDOGENOUS)
CALIBRATION: Declaring parameters (elasticities and technology state), obtained directly from the
functional forms of the actors' behavior and the SAM. (EXOGENOUS)
MODEL SYSTEM DECLARATION:
DECLARING VARIABLES (ENDOGENOUS)
DECLARING ECUATIONS
CHOSING FUNCTIONAL FORMS OF BEHAVIOR EQUATIONS AND MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS
OBJECTIVE FUNCTION
INITIALIZING VARIABLES AND SETTING LOWER BOUNDS
SOLVING THE MODEL
SIMULATION
DISPLAYING RESULTS AND BENCHMARKING
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
EXTENDED MODEL: WHAT IS NEW?
•HOUSEHOLDS (DISPOSABLE RENT)
•FIRMS (INTERMEDIATE INPUTS)
•GOVERNMENT (TAXES)
•INVESTMENT (SAVING)
•INTERNATIONAL TRADE
•SMALL COUNTRY ASSUMPTION
•ARMINGTON ASSUMPTION
•MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
EXTENDED MODEL: GENERAL STRUCTURE
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL
•GOODS: BREAD AND WINE
•FACTORS:
•CAPITAL
•LABOUR
•INSTITUTIONS: HOUSEHOLDS, GOVERNMENT(WITH TARIFFS AND INDIRECT TAXES), INVESTMENT
AND REST OF THE WORLD
BRD WIN CAP LAB HOH GOV INV IDT TRF EXT TOTAL
BRD 21 8 20 19 16 8 92
WIN 17 9 30 14 15 4 89
CAP 20 30 50
LAB 15 25 40
HOH 50 40 90
GOV 23 9 3 35
INV 17 2 12 31
IDT 5 4 9
TRF 1 2 3
EXT 13 11 24
TOTAL 92 89 50 40 90 35 31 9 3 24
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
HOUSEHOLDS
New income constraint:
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
FIRMS: INTERMEDIATE INPUTS
-The bottom stage:
𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝜋𝑗
𝑦
= 𝑝𝑗
𝑦
𝑦𝑗 − 𝑟ℎ
ℎ
𝐹ℎ𝑗
Subject to;
-The top stage:
𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒
𝑍𝑗 , 𝑌𝑗 , 𝑋𝑖𝑗
𝜋𝑗 = 𝑝𝑗
𝑠
𝑍𝑗 − 𝑝𝑗
𝑦
𝑌𝑗 + 𝑝𝑖
𝑞
𝑋𝑖𝑗
𝑖
Subject to:
𝑍𝑗 = min
𝑋 𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑗
𝑎𝑥 𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑗
,
𝑋 𝑊𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑗
𝑎𝑥 𝑊𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑗
,
𝑌 𝑗
𝑎𝑦 𝑖
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
INTERMEDIATE INPUTS
𝜋𝑗 : 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑝 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒
𝜋𝑗
𝑦
: 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑚 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒
𝑧𝑗 : 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑
𝑥𝑖𝑗 : 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚
𝑌𝑗 : 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚
𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗 : 𝑐𝑜𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑚 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖
− 𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡
𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗
= 𝑐𝑜𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡
𝑝𝑗
𝑠
= 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑
𝑝𝑖
𝑞
= 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑, 𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝑝𝑗
𝑦
= 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
INTERMEDIATE INPUTS
𝑋𝑖𝑗 = 𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗 𝑍𝑗 , ∀𝑖
𝑌𝑗 = 𝑎𝑦𝑗 𝑍𝑗 , ∀𝑗
𝐹ℎ𝑗 =
𝛽ℎ 𝑗 𝑝 𝑗
𝑦
𝑟ℎ
𝑌𝑗 , ∀ℎ
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
INTERMEDIATE INPUTS
zero-profit condition:
𝜋 = 𝑝𝑗
𝑠
𝑍𝑗 − 𝑝𝑗
𝑦
𝑌𝑗 + 𝑝𝑖 𝑞
𝑋𝑖𝑗
𝑖
= 𝑝𝑗
𝑠
𝑍𝑗 − 𝑎𝑦𝑗 𝑝𝑗
𝑦
𝑍𝑗 + 𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗 𝑝𝑖
𝑞
𝑍𝑗
𝑖
= 0, ∀𝑗
𝑝𝑗
𝑠
= 𝑎𝑦𝑗 𝑝𝑗
𝑦
+ 𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗 𝑝𝑖
𝑞
. ∀𝑗
𝑖
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
GOVERNMENT
𝑋𝑖
𝑔
: 𝑝𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑇𝑗 : 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝜏𝑗 : 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗
− 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡.
𝑆 𝑔
: 𝑝𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝑠𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔, 𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝜇𝑖: 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖
− 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 0 ≤ 𝜇𝑖 ≤ 1, 𝜇𝑖 = 1
𝑖
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
INVESTMENT
𝑋𝑖
𝑣
=
𝜆𝑖
𝑝𝑖
𝑞 𝑆 + 𝑆 𝑔
+ 𝜀𝑆 𝑓
. ∀𝑖
S: private saving
Sf
: foreign saving or current account deficit in balance of payment in foreign currency
Xi
v
: investment demand for the i − th comodity
ε: exchange rate (local currency per foreign currency)
λi: share of expediture for the i − th commodity (0 ≤ λi
≤ 1, λi = 1
i
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
•INTERNATIONAL TRADE: SMALL COUNTRY ASSUMPTION
𝑝𝑖
𝑒
= 𝜀𝑝𝑖
𝑊𝑒
, ∀𝑖
𝑝𝑖
𝑚
= 𝜀𝑝𝑖
𝑊𝑚
, ∀𝑖
𝑝𝑖
𝑤𝑒
𝐸𝑖 + 𝑆 𝑓
= 𝑝𝑖
𝑤𝑚
𝑀𝑖𝑖𝑖 Balance of payments condition
𝑝𝑖
𝑤𝑒
: 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑠 (𝑒𝑥𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑠)
𝑝𝑖
𝑒
= 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑠,
𝐸𝑖 = 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑝𝑖
𝑤𝑚
= 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑠 (𝑒𝑥𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑠)
𝑝𝑖
𝑚
= 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑠, 𝑎𝑛𝑑
𝑀𝑖 = 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
•INTERNATIONAL TRADE: ARMINGTON ASSUMPTION
𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒
𝑄𝑖, 𝑀𝑖, 𝐷𝑖
𝜋𝑖
𝑞
= 𝑝𝑖
𝑞
𝑄𝑖 − 𝑝𝑖
𝑚
𝑀𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖
𝑑
𝐷𝑖
S. T:
𝑄𝑖 = 𝛾𝑖 𝛿𝑚𝑖 𝑀𝑖
𝜂𝑖
+ 𝛿𝑑𝑖 𝐷𝑖
𝜂𝑖
1
𝜂𝑖
𝑀𝑖 =
𝛾𝑖
𝜂𝑖
𝛿 𝑚𝑖 𝑝𝑖
𝑞
𝑝𝑖
𝑚
1
1−𝜂𝑖
𝑄𝑖, ∀𝑖
𝐷𝑖 =
𝛾𝑖
𝜂𝑖
𝛿 𝑑𝑖 𝑝𝑖
𝑞
𝑝𝑖
𝑑
1
1−𝜂𝑖
𝑄𝑖, ∀𝑖
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
•INTERNATIONAL TRADE: ARMINGTON ASSUMPTION:
𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒
𝑍, 𝐵, 𝐷
𝜋𝑖
𝑧
= 𝑝𝑖
𝑒
𝐸𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖
𝑑
𝐷𝑖 − 𝜏𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖
𝑠
𝑍𝑖,
S.T:
𝑍𝑖 = 𝜃𝑖 𝛿𝑒𝑖 𝐸𝑖
∅𝑖
+ 𝛿𝑑𝑖 𝐷𝑖
∅𝑖
1
∅𝑖
𝐸𝑖 =
𝜃𝑖
∅𝑖
𝛿𝑒𝑖(𝜏𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖
𝑠
)
𝑝𝑖
𝑒
1
1−∅𝑖
𝑧𝑖, ∀𝑖
𝐷𝑖 =
𝜃𝑖
∅𝑖
𝛿𝑑𝑖 𝜏𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖
𝑠
𝑝𝑖
𝑑
1
1−∅𝑖
𝑧𝑖, ∀𝑖
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL
•MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS
𝑄𝑖 = 𝑋𝑖
𝑝
+ 𝑋𝑖
𝑔
+ 𝑋𝑖
𝑣
+ 𝑋𝑖𝑗 ,
𝑗
∀𝑖
𝐹ℎ𝑗 = 𝐹𝐹ℎ ∀ℎ
𝑗
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS
•DEFINITION OF TABLE NAME AND ITS SUFFICES
•LOADING DATA FROM SAM:
• 5 COLUMUNS (+)
•IMPORTING DATA FROM A TXT. FILE
• DECLARING AND FULLFILING PARAMETERS (EXOGENOUS AND
INITIAL VALUES OF ENDOGENOUS )
•VALUE ADDED AND INTERMEDIATE INPUTS
• GOVERNMENT (TAXES)
• S-I
• REST OF THE WORLD
•COMPOSITE GOODS (ARMINGTON)
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS
•CALIBRATION: DECLARING AND CALCULATING
PARAMETERS (EXOGENOUS)
•SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIY PARAMETER
•TRANSFORMATION ELASTICITY PARAMETER
•SHARE PARAMETERS (LEONTIEF, CES, CET)
•AVERAGE PROPENSITY FOR SAVING
•TAX RATE
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS
•DEFINING MODEL SYSTEM
•VARIABLES (ENDOGENOUS)
•EQUATIONS
•HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
•DOMESTIC PRODUCTION: VA, INTERMEDIATE DEMANDCOST
FUNCTION
•GOVERNMENT
•INVESTMENT
•INTERNATIONAL TRADE:
•PRICES
•ARMINGTON AND TRANSFORMATION FUNCTIONS
•MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS
•SAVINGS: (NUMBER OF VARIABLES=NUMBER OF EQUATIONS)
•OBJECTIVE FUNCTION
•INITIALIZING VARIABLES AND SETTING LOWER BOUNDS
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS
•SIMULATION
•DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INITIAL EQUILIBRIUM AND COUNTER-
FACTUAL SOLUTION
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
THANK YOU
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
Saúl de Vicente Queijeiro
October 21st , 2013
UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE MADRID (UAM)

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Commutable General Equilibrium Models

  • 1. COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE): BASICS NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty" October 21st , 2013 UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE MADRID (UAM) Saúl de Vicente Queijeiro
  • 2. COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE) NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty" IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL Data Source: structure of a SAM Behavioral equations Market-clearing conditions SOLVING THE MODEL Shock simulation
  • 3. COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE) DATA SOURCE: SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX (SAM) THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL SIMPLIFIED MODEL USING EXCEL SIMPLIFIED MODEL USING GAMS THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS: SIMULATION NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 4. IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL: CGE framework NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 5. IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL: CGE framework-SAM Structure (source: Breisinger et al, 2009) NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 6. IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL: CGE framework-SAM Structure Activities Commodities Labor Capital Households Government Investment Rest of world Total Activities 24,996 24,996 Commodities 12,029 12,142 1,805 4,680 5,151 35,807 Labor 9,717 9,717 Capital 3,250 3,250 Households 9,717 3,250 1,387 2,001 16,354 Government 2,372 940 739 4,052 Savings 3,272 860 548 4,680 Rest of world 8,439 8,439 Total 24,996 35,807 9,717 3,250 16,354 4,052 4,680 8,439 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 7. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL •GOODS: BREAD AND WINE •FACTORS: •CAPITAL •LABOUR •INSTITUTIONS: HOUSEHOLDS BRD WIN CAP LAB HOH TOTAL BRD 15 15 WIN 35 35 CAP 5 20 25 LAB 10 15 25 HOH 25 25 50 TOTAL 15 35 25 25 50 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 8. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS HOUSEHOLDS S.T. NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 9. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS FIRMS Max NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 10. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS Market Equilibrium NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 11. CGE MODEL USING GAMS/EXCEL: STEPS DEFINITION OF TABLE NAME AND ITS SUFFICES LOADING DATA FROM SAM DECLARING AND FULLFILING PARAMETERS (EXOGENOUS AND INITIAL VALUES OF ENDOGENOUS) CALIBRATION: Declaring parameters (elasticities and technology state), obtained directly from the functional forms of the actors' behavior and the SAM. (EXOGENOUS) MODEL SYSTEM DECLARATION: DECLARING VARIABLES (ENDOGENOUS) DECLARING ECUATIONS CHOSING FUNCTIONAL FORMS OF BEHAVIOR EQUATIONS AND MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS OBJECTIVE FUNCTION INITIALIZING VARIABLES AND SETTING LOWER BOUNDS SOLVING THE MODEL SIMULATION DISPLAYING RESULTS AND BENCHMARKING NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 12. EXTENDED MODEL: WHAT IS NEW? •HOUSEHOLDS (DISPOSABLE RENT) •FIRMS (INTERMEDIATE INPUTS) •GOVERNMENT (TAXES) •INVESTMENT (SAVING) •INTERNATIONAL TRADE •SMALL COUNTRY ASSUMPTION •ARMINGTON ASSUMPTION •MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 13. EXTENDED MODEL: GENERAL STRUCTURE NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 14. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL •GOODS: BREAD AND WINE •FACTORS: •CAPITAL •LABOUR •INSTITUTIONS: HOUSEHOLDS, GOVERNMENT(WITH TARIFFS AND INDIRECT TAXES), INVESTMENT AND REST OF THE WORLD BRD WIN CAP LAB HOH GOV INV IDT TRF EXT TOTAL BRD 21 8 20 19 16 8 92 WIN 17 9 30 14 15 4 89 CAP 20 30 50 LAB 15 25 40 HOH 50 40 90 GOV 23 9 3 35 INV 17 2 12 31 IDT 5 4 9 TRF 1 2 3 EXT 13 11 24 TOTAL 92 89 50 40 90 35 31 9 3 24 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 15. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS HOUSEHOLDS New income constraint: NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 16. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS FIRMS: INTERMEDIATE INPUTS -The bottom stage: 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝜋𝑗 𝑦 = 𝑝𝑗 𝑦 𝑦𝑗 − 𝑟ℎ ℎ 𝐹ℎ𝑗 Subject to; -The top stage: 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑍𝑗 , 𝑌𝑗 , 𝑋𝑖𝑗 𝜋𝑗 = 𝑝𝑗 𝑠 𝑍𝑗 − 𝑝𝑗 𝑦 𝑌𝑗 + 𝑝𝑖 𝑞 𝑋𝑖𝑗 𝑖 Subject to: 𝑍𝑗 = min 𝑋 𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑗 𝑎𝑥 𝐵𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 𝑗 , 𝑋 𝑊𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑗 𝑎𝑥 𝑊𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑗 , 𝑌 𝑗 𝑎𝑦 𝑖 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 17. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS INTERMEDIATE INPUTS 𝜋𝑗 : 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑝 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝜋𝑗 𝑦 : 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑎𝑡 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑏𝑜𝑡𝑡𝑜𝑚 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑧𝑗 : 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑥𝑖𝑗 : 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑢𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝑏𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑌𝑗 : 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗 : 𝑐𝑜𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑚 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗 = 𝑐𝑜𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑟𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡 𝑝𝑗 𝑠 = 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑙𝑦 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 𝑝𝑖 𝑞 = 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑒𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑗 𝑦 = 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑎𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 18. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS INTERMEDIATE INPUTS 𝑋𝑖𝑗 = 𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗 𝑍𝑗 , ∀𝑖 𝑌𝑗 = 𝑎𝑦𝑗 𝑍𝑗 , ∀𝑗 𝐹ℎ𝑗 = 𝛽ℎ 𝑗 𝑝 𝑗 𝑦 𝑟ℎ 𝑌𝑗 , ∀ℎ NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 19. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS INTERMEDIATE INPUTS zero-profit condition: 𝜋 = 𝑝𝑗 𝑠 𝑍𝑗 − 𝑝𝑗 𝑦 𝑌𝑗 + 𝑝𝑖 𝑞 𝑋𝑖𝑗 𝑖 = 𝑝𝑗 𝑠 𝑍𝑗 − 𝑎𝑦𝑗 𝑝𝑗 𝑦 𝑍𝑗 + 𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗 𝑝𝑖 𝑞 𝑍𝑗 𝑖 = 0, ∀𝑗 𝑝𝑗 𝑠 = 𝑎𝑦𝑗 𝑝𝑗 𝑦 + 𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑗 𝑝𝑖 𝑞 . ∀𝑗 𝑖 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 20. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS GOVERNMENT 𝑋𝑖 𝑔 : 𝑝𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑇𝑗 : 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑚 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝜏𝑗 : 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑜𝑛 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑗 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚 𝑜𝑓 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡. 𝑆 𝑔 : 𝑝𝑢𝑏𝑙𝑖𝑐 𝑠𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑛𝑔, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜇𝑖: 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 0 ≤ 𝜇𝑖 ≤ 1, 𝜇𝑖 = 1 𝑖 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 21. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS INVESTMENT 𝑋𝑖 𝑣 = 𝜆𝑖 𝑝𝑖 𝑞 𝑆 + 𝑆 𝑔 + 𝜀𝑆 𝑓 . ∀𝑖 S: private saving Sf : foreign saving or current account deficit in balance of payment in foreign currency Xi v : investment demand for the i − th comodity ε: exchange rate (local currency per foreign currency) λi: share of expediture for the i − th commodity (0 ≤ λi ≤ 1, λi = 1 i NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 22. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS •INTERNATIONAL TRADE: SMALL COUNTRY ASSUMPTION 𝑝𝑖 𝑒 = 𝜀𝑝𝑖 𝑊𝑒 , ∀𝑖 𝑝𝑖 𝑚 = 𝜀𝑝𝑖 𝑊𝑚 , ∀𝑖 𝑝𝑖 𝑤𝑒 𝐸𝑖 + 𝑆 𝑓 = 𝑝𝑖 𝑤𝑚 𝑀𝑖𝑖𝑖 Balance of payments condition 𝑝𝑖 𝑤𝑒 : 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑠 (𝑒𝑥𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑠) 𝑝𝑖 𝑒 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑠, 𝐸𝑖 = 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑖 𝑤𝑚 = 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑔𝑛 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑠 (𝑒𝑥𝑜𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑜𝑢𝑠) 𝑝𝑖 𝑚 = 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛 𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑠, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑀𝑖 = 𝑎𝑚𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑖 − 𝑡ℎ 𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑖𝑡𝑦 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 23. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS •INTERNATIONAL TRADE: ARMINGTON ASSUMPTION 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑄𝑖, 𝑀𝑖, 𝐷𝑖 𝜋𝑖 𝑞 = 𝑝𝑖 𝑞 𝑄𝑖 − 𝑝𝑖 𝑚 𝑀𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖 𝑑 𝐷𝑖 S. T: 𝑄𝑖 = 𝛾𝑖 𝛿𝑚𝑖 𝑀𝑖 𝜂𝑖 + 𝛿𝑑𝑖 𝐷𝑖 𝜂𝑖 1 𝜂𝑖 𝑀𝑖 = 𝛾𝑖 𝜂𝑖 𝛿 𝑚𝑖 𝑝𝑖 𝑞 𝑝𝑖 𝑚 1 1−𝜂𝑖 𝑄𝑖, ∀𝑖 𝐷𝑖 = 𝛾𝑖 𝜂𝑖 𝛿 𝑑𝑖 𝑝𝑖 𝑞 𝑝𝑖 𝑑 1 1−𝜂𝑖 𝑄𝑖, ∀𝑖 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 24. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL. BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS •INTERNATIONAL TRADE: ARMINGTON ASSUMPTION: 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑒 𝑍, 𝐵, 𝐷 𝜋𝑖 𝑧 = 𝑝𝑖 𝑒 𝐸𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖 𝑑 𝐷𝑖 − 𝜏𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖 𝑠 𝑍𝑖, S.T: 𝑍𝑖 = 𝜃𝑖 𝛿𝑒𝑖 𝐸𝑖 ∅𝑖 + 𝛿𝑑𝑖 𝐷𝑖 ∅𝑖 1 ∅𝑖 𝐸𝑖 = 𝜃𝑖 ∅𝑖 𝛿𝑒𝑖(𝜏𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖 𝑠 ) 𝑝𝑖 𝑒 1 1−∅𝑖 𝑧𝑖, ∀𝑖 𝐷𝑖 = 𝜃𝑖 ∅𝑖 𝛿𝑑𝑖 𝜏𝑖 + 𝑝𝑖 𝑠 𝑝𝑖 𝑑 1 1−∅𝑖 𝑧𝑖, ∀𝑖 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 25. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL •MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS 𝑄𝑖 = 𝑋𝑖 𝑝 + 𝑋𝑖 𝑔 + 𝑋𝑖 𝑣 + 𝑋𝑖𝑗 , 𝑗 ∀𝑖 𝐹ℎ𝑗 = 𝐹𝐹ℎ ∀ℎ 𝑗 NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 26. EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS •DEFINITION OF TABLE NAME AND ITS SUFFICES •LOADING DATA FROM SAM: • 5 COLUMUNS (+) •IMPORTING DATA FROM A TXT. FILE • DECLARING AND FULLFILING PARAMETERS (EXOGENOUS AND INITIAL VALUES OF ENDOGENOUS ) •VALUE ADDED AND INTERMEDIATE INPUTS • GOVERNMENT (TAXES) • S-I • REST OF THE WORLD •COMPOSITE GOODS (ARMINGTON) NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 27. EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS •CALIBRATION: DECLARING AND CALCULATING PARAMETERS (EXOGENOUS) •SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIY PARAMETER •TRANSFORMATION ELASTICITY PARAMETER •SHARE PARAMETERS (LEONTIEF, CES, CET) •AVERAGE PROPENSITY FOR SAVING •TAX RATE NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 28. EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS •DEFINING MODEL SYSTEM •VARIABLES (ENDOGENOUS) •EQUATIONS •HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION •DOMESTIC PRODUCTION: VA, INTERMEDIATE DEMANDCOST FUNCTION •GOVERNMENT •INVESTMENT •INTERNATIONAL TRADE: •PRICES •ARMINGTON AND TRANSFORMATION FUNCTIONS •MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS •SAVINGS: (NUMBER OF VARIABLES=NUMBER OF EQUATIONS) •OBJECTIVE FUNCTION •INITIALIZING VARIABLES AND SETTING LOWER BOUNDS NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 29. EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS •SIMULATION •DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INITIAL EQUILIBRIUM AND COUNTER- FACTUAL SOLUTION NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
  • 30. THANK YOU NOPOOR Project "Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty" Saúl de Vicente Queijeiro October 21st , 2013 UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE MADRID (UAM)