1. COMPUTABLE GENERAL
EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE):
BASICS
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
October 21st , 2013
UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE MADRID (UAM)
Saúl de Vicente Queijeiro
2. COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE)
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL
Data Source: structure of a SAM
Behavioral equations
Market-clearing conditions
SOLVING THE MODEL
Shock simulation
3. COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS (CGE)
DATA SOURCE: SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX (SAM)
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
SIMPLIFIED MODEL USING EXCEL
SIMPLIFIED MODEL USING GAMS
THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL
EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS: SIMULATION
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
4. IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL: CGE framework
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
5. IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL: CGE framework-SAM
Structure (source: Breisinger et al, 2009)
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
6. IMPLEMENTATION OF A CGE MODEL: CGE
framework-SAM Structure
Activities Commodities Labor Capital Households Government Investment Rest of world Total
Activities 24,996 24,996
Commodities 12,029 12,142 1,805 4,680 5,151 35,807
Labor 9,717 9,717
Capital 3,250 3,250
Households 9,717 3,250 1,387 2,001 16,354
Government 2,372 940 739 4,052
Savings 3,272 860 548 4,680
Rest of world 8,439 8,439
Total 24,996 35,807 9,717 3,250 16,354 4,052 4,680 8,439
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
7. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
•GOODS: BREAD AND WINE
•FACTORS:
•CAPITAL
•LABOUR
•INSTITUTIONS: HOUSEHOLDS
BRD WIN CAP LAB HOH TOTAL
BRD 15 15
WIN 35 35
CAP 5 20 25
LAB 10 15 25
HOH 25 25 50
TOTAL 15 35 25 25 50
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
8. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
HOUSEHOLDS
S.T.
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
9. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
FIRMS
Max
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
10. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: SIMPLIFIED MODEL
MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS
Market Equilibrium
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
11. CGE MODEL USING GAMS/EXCEL: STEPS
DEFINITION OF TABLE NAME AND ITS SUFFICES
LOADING DATA FROM SAM
DECLARING AND FULLFILING PARAMETERS (EXOGENOUS AND INITIAL VALUES OF ENDOGENOUS)
CALIBRATION: Declaring parameters (elasticities and technology state), obtained directly from the
functional forms of the actors' behavior and the SAM. (EXOGENOUS)
MODEL SYSTEM DECLARATION:
DECLARING VARIABLES (ENDOGENOUS)
DECLARING ECUATIONS
CHOSING FUNCTIONAL FORMS OF BEHAVIOR EQUATIONS AND MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS
OBJECTIVE FUNCTION
INITIALIZING VARIABLES AND SETTING LOWER BOUNDS
SOLVING THE MODEL
SIMULATION
DISPLAYING RESULTS AND BENCHMARKING
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
12. EXTENDED MODEL: WHAT IS NEW?
•HOUSEHOLDS (DISPOSABLE RENT)
•FIRMS (INTERMEDIATE INPUTS)
•GOVERNMENT (TAXES)
•INVESTMENT (SAVING)
•INTERNATIONAL TRADE
•SMALL COUNTRY ASSUMPTION
•ARMINGTON ASSUMPTION
•MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
13. EXTENDED MODEL: GENERAL STRUCTURE
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
14. CGE THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL
•GOODS: BREAD AND WINE
•FACTORS:
•CAPITAL
•LABOUR
•INSTITUTIONS: HOUSEHOLDS, GOVERNMENT(WITH TARIFFS AND INDIRECT TAXES), INVESTMENT
AND REST OF THE WORLD
BRD WIN CAP LAB HOH GOV INV IDT TRF EXT TOTAL
BRD 21 8 20 19 16 8 92
WIN 17 9 30 14 15 4 89
CAP 20 30 50
LAB 15 25 40
HOH 50 40 90
GOV 23 9 3 35
INV 17 2 12 31
IDT 5 4 9
TRF 1 2 3
EXT 13 11 24
TOTAL 92 89 50 40 90 35 31 9 3 24
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
15. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
HOUSEHOLDS
New income constraint:
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
21. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: EXTENDED MODEL.
BEHAVIORAL EQUATIONS
INVESTMENT
𝑋𝑖
𝑣
=
𝜆𝑖
𝑝𝑖
𝑞 𝑆 + 𝑆 𝑔
+ 𝜀𝑆 𝑓
. ∀𝑖
S: private saving
Sf
: foreign saving or current account deficit in balance of payment in foreign currency
Xi
v
: investment demand for the i − th comodity
ε: exchange rate (local currency per foreign currency)
λi: share of expediture for the i − th commodity (0 ≤ λi
≤ 1, λi = 1
i
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
26. EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS
•DEFINITION OF TABLE NAME AND ITS SUFFICES
•LOADING DATA FROM SAM:
• 5 COLUMUNS (+)
•IMPORTING DATA FROM A TXT. FILE
• DECLARING AND FULLFILING PARAMETERS (EXOGENOUS AND
INITIAL VALUES OF ENDOGENOUS )
•VALUE ADDED AND INTERMEDIATE INPUTS
• GOVERNMENT (TAXES)
• S-I
• REST OF THE WORLD
•COMPOSITE GOODS (ARMINGTON)
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
27. EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS
•CALIBRATION: DECLARING AND CALCULATING
PARAMETERS (EXOGENOUS)
•SUBSTITUTION ELASTICITIY PARAMETER
•TRANSFORMATION ELASTICITY PARAMETER
•SHARE PARAMETERS (LEONTIEF, CES, CET)
•AVERAGE PROPENSITY FOR SAVING
•TAX RATE
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
28. EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS
•DEFINING MODEL SYSTEM
•VARIABLES (ENDOGENOUS)
•EQUATIONS
•HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
•DOMESTIC PRODUCTION: VA, INTERMEDIATE DEMANDCOST
FUNCTION
•GOVERNMENT
•INVESTMENT
•INTERNATIONAL TRADE:
•PRICES
•ARMINGTON AND TRANSFORMATION FUNCTIONS
•MARKET CLEARING CONDITIONS
•SAVINGS: (NUMBER OF VARIABLES=NUMBER OF EQUATIONS)
•OBJECTIVE FUNCTION
•INITIALIZING VARIABLES AND SETTING LOWER BOUNDS
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
29. EXTENDED MODEL USING GAMS
•SIMULATION
•DIFFERENCES BETWEEN INITIAL EQUILIBRIUM AND COUNTER-
FACTUAL SOLUTION
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
30. THANK YOU
NOPOOR Project
"Enhancing Knowledge for Renewed Policies against Poverty"
Saúl de Vicente Queijeiro
October 21st , 2013
UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE MADRID (UAM)