1. United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
Coffee:
Circular Series
June 2011 World Markets and Trade
World Coffee Production to Again
Outpace Consumption, but . . . Prices Higher as Stocks Remain Tight
140 50 250
May 2011
135 230
45
210
130
40 190
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
125 170
U.S. Cents per Pound
35
120 150
30
115 130
25 110
110
90
105 20
70
100 15 50
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12 F
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12 F
Production Consumption Ending Stocks Price
International Coffee Organization Composite Price, May Average
World coffee production in 2011/12 is forecast to outpace consumption for a second consecutive year,
although ending stocks are expected to remain tight. Production is forecast to decline a moderate 2.9
million bags, whereas previous down years have declined as much as 16 million bags. However, stocks
are forecast to remain at diminished levels, leaving little cushion should there be a supply problem. In
response to the multi-year stocks drawdown, prices have spiked.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA
2. Decade in Review
In the last decade, world production has Brazil and Vietnam Lead Production Growth
expanded by 23.5 million bags (21
percent), with Brazil and Vietnam 140
accounting for virtually all of the gain.
Vietnam
The other 50 producing countries have 120
been mostly flat, with growth in some
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
countries largely being offset by losses
100
in others. For example, Nicaragua,
Honduras, Peru and Indonesia Brazil
experienced growth in excess of 1 80
million bags during this period, but
declines of similar caliber occurred in 60
Cote d’Ivoire and Colombia.
Production in just the last few years has
fallen in certain countries because of 40
Other
pests, diseases and/or poor weather.
Also, output has been affected by tree 20
renovation programs recently
implemented in several countries.
-
Arabica and Robusta production have 2001/02 2011/12 F
increased by nearly equal amounts in the
last decade, expanding 11.9 million and
11.6 million bags, respectively. As a Brazil Dominates Arabica Vietnam and Brazil Account
result, the ratio has not changed Expansion, While . . . For Nearly All Robusta Growth
90 60
significantly from 60 percent Arabica to
40 percent Robusta. The vast majority
80
of the Arabica growth has come from
50
Brazil, with gains in Honduras, Peru and 70 Brazil
Nicaragua partially offset by losses in Brazil
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
Colombia, India and Costa Rica. Nearly 60 40
two-thirds of the Robusta gain has been
from Vietnam and one-third from 50
Brazil. 30
Vietnam
40
Stocks have been cut nearly in half in
the last decade and their location has 30 20
shifted. Initially, top consuming Other
countries were balanced with top 20
10
Other
producing countries at about 40 percent.
The United States, Europe and Japan are 10
forecast to account for 70 percent with
- -
Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia holding
just 25 percent. 2001/02 2011/12 F 2001/02 2011/12 F
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011
3. 2011/12 Production Forecast
World coffee production for 2011/12 is forecast at 135.0 million bags, down just 2.9 million as Brazil
enters the off-year of the biennial Arabica production cycle. Record Robusta crops in Brazil and Vietnam,
combined with Colombia’s continued recovery, are expected to soften the decline.
Brazil’s Robusta harvest is forecast to jump 1.8 million bags to a record 14.5 million as favorable weather
conditions and good crop management benefited fruit setting and development in the State of Espirito
Santo, where nearly 75 percent is grown.
Production during the previous two Record Robusta Crop Forecast for Brazil
15
seasons suffered from weather related
problems during the blossoming period,
12
making the year-over-year growth all the
Million 60 Kilogram Bags
more dramatic. The Arabica crop is
forecast to drop 7.1 million bags to 34.7 9
million during the off-year of the
biennial cycle, a normal amount as 6
compared to recent periods. Strong
blossoming, favorable weather and good 3
crop management supported ideal cherry
setting and development. As a result, 0
total production is forecast to fall 5.3 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 F
million bags to 49.2 million. Espirito Santo Other
Vietnam is forecast to rise 1.9 million bags to a record 20.6 million as the rainy season arrived on time,
resulting in a good flowering and fruit setting. High prices motivated many growers to irrigate in order to
boost yields, while higher incomes encouraged some farmers to begin replacing low-yielding trees.
Colombia is forecast to recover 1 million bags to 10.5 million. High prices combined with government
support encouraged many growers to apply more fertilizer, pesticides and fungicides in order to improve
yields. However, the crop is still short of the five-year average of 11.8 million produced prior to shortfalls
caused by coffee rust and the coffee cherry borer. The ongoing tree renovation program has also cut into
yields.
Indonesia is forecast down 1.4 million bags to 7.9 million as higher-than-average rainfall during flowering
damaged the bloom in many areas.
India is forecast to slip 300,000 bags to 4.8 million mainly because Robusta areas experienced uneven
rainfall during the bloom period, which is expected to lower yields.
Mexico is forecast at 3.7 million bags, unchanged from last year’s low production, as dry conditions in
certain areas adversely affected the bloom.
For further information, please contact Tony Halstead at 202-720-4620, or send an email to
Tony.Halstead@fas.usda.gov
Users can find the release schedule and generate the full USDA Production, Supply and Distribution
(PSD) dataset for reporting countries by accessing the following link:
http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011
9. Table 02B Arabica Coffee Production
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Arabica Production none
Bolivia 152 140 135 140 135 140
Brazil 36,000 27,650 40,500 33,000 41,800 34,700
Burundi 287 209 250 300 250 275
Cameroon 90 90 90 90 90 90
Colombia 12,164 12,515 8,664 8,100 9,500 10,500
Congo (Kinshasa) 100 115 100 105 100 100
Costa Rica 1,782 1,867 1,580 1,475 1,575 1,640
Cuba 100 70 127 120 120 125
Dominican Republic 390 465 545 500 500 500
Ecuador 500 475 360 375 400 425
El Salvador 1,400 1,650 1,550 1,300 1,700 1,525
Ethiopia 4,036 3,906 3,650 4,000 4,400 4,500
Guatemala 4,040 4,100 3,970 4,000 3,900 3,900
Haiti 337 335 360 275 300 300
Honduras 3,460 3,642 3,225 3,550 4,000 4,100
India 1,415 1,580 1,325 1,600 1,500 1,475
Indonesia 900 800 1,200 1,500 1,375 1,230
Jamaica 30 35 31 29 25 30
Kenya 870 700 884 750 750 825
Madagascar 30 30 30 25 25 25
Malawi 17 25 25 25 25 25
Mexico 4,300 4,100 4,300 3,950 3,500 3,500
Nicaragua 1,300 1,850 1,650 1,925 2,000 2,150
Panama 150 150 100 100 100 100
Papua New Guinea 780 925 1,000 1,050 850 1,000
Paraguay 20 28 25 25 25 25
Peru 4,400 2,800 4,000 3,300 4,000 3,800
Philippines 35 35 35 20 35 30
Rwanda 400 230 340 240 310 325
Sri Lanka 9 10 10 10 10 10
Tanzania 515 525 700 620 550 600
Trinidad and Tobago 1 1 1 0 0 0
Uganda 400 400 400 400 400 400
United States 154 151 133 107 102 100
Venezuela 862 900 900 725 690 800
Vietnam 500 400 480 450 575 675
Yemen 200 150 150 150 150 150
Zambia 56 60 39 27 10 15
Zimbabwe 45 31 22 21 10 15
Total 82,227 73,145 82,886 74,379 85,787 80,125
Notes:
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011
10. Table 02C Robusta Coffee Production
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Robusta Production none
Angola 35 30 30 30 25 25
Brazil 10,700 11,450 12,800 11,800 12,700 14,500
Cameroon 745 605 560 500 525 500
Central African Republic 45 50 10 30 35 30
Congo (Kinshasa) 180 200 200 200 185 190
Cote d'Ivoire 2,447 2,098 1,853 2,350 2,100 2,300
Ecuador 375 350 275 260 250 225
Ghana 29 27 19 30 35 35
Guatemala 10 10 10 10 10 10
Guinea 400 250 400 495 225 450
India 3,250 3,080 3,050 3,250 3,600 3,325
Indonesia 6,600 6,800 8,100 9,000 7,950 6,655
Laos 420 355 350 390 450 475
Liberia 53 25 7 2 1 1
Madagascar 552 525 500 450 500 525
Malaysia 500 770 975 1,000 1,000 1,100
Mexico 200 250 250 200 200 200
Nigeria 51 35 30 30 30 30
Papua New Guinea 30 45 35 35 40 50
Philippines 645 400 300 200 400 400
Sierra Leone 31 42 87 90 60 70
Sri Lanka 23 25 25 25 25 25
Tanzania 305 305 340 300 275 300
Thailand 850 900 800 900 900 900
Togo 180 255 185 450 525 550
Trinidad and Tobago 11 1 1 0 0 0
Uganda 1,900 2,100 2,800 2,300 1,900 2,100
Vietnam 19,000 17,600 16,500 18,050 18,150 19,925
Total 49,567 48,583 50,492 52,377 52,096 54,896
Notes:
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011
11. Table 03A Total Coffee Exports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Exports none
Angola 5 4 4 8 5 5
Bolivia 104 73 73 74 75 75
Brazil 29,260 27,290 31,475 29,780 34,000 28,000
Burundi 240 300 250 290 250 270
Cameroon 790 560 480 690 550 525
Central African Republic 45 50 6 25 30 30
Colombia 11,155 11,525 8,935 7,435 9,150 9,800
Congo (Kinshasa) 78 110 117 102 95 100
Costa Rica 1,582 1,588 1,410 1,200 1,350 1,390
Cote d'Ivoire 2,075 1,870 1,555 2,005 1,850 2,000
Cuba 13 5 6 7 7 7
Dominican Republic 50 41 42 36 48 50
Ecuador 951 942 861 1,140 1,250 1,275
El Salvador 1,325 1,585 1,510 1,219 1,579 1,454
Ethiopia 2,225 2,110 1,850 2,325 2,550 2,640
Ghana 28 26 18 30 35 35
Guatemala 3,980 3,890 3,783 3,860 3,940 3,925
Guinea 390 195 375 460 200 400
Haiti 21 19 17 10 6 5
Honduras 3,370 3,440 3,050 3,200 4,000 3,925
India 3,609 3,820 3,120 4,110 4,100 3,750
Indonesia 6,400 6,110 7,700 8,750 8,250 6,350
Jamaica 20 30 26 24 20 25
Kenya 870 820 980 740 750 800
Laos 280 225 250 290 350 375
Liberia 49 25 7 2 1 1
Madagascar 200 165 115 40 85 100
Malawi 17 25 25 24 24 24
Malaysia 1,171 1,422 1,619 1,980 1,870 1,920
Mexico 2,865 2,610 2,735 2,480 2,150 2,125
Nicaragua 1,310 1,745 1,585 1,806 1,925 2,050
Nigeria 9 1 1 3 2 2
Panama 95 96 45 53 50 50
Papua New Guinea 820 900 1,070 1,040 875 1,000
Paraguay 10 10 5 5 5 5
Peru 4,200 2,660 3,830 3,150 3,825 3,650
Philippines 1 0 0 0 0 0
Rwanda 400 230 340 240 310 325
Sierra Leone 30 25 70 70 40 50
Tanzania 745 730 880 875 705 800
Thailand 925 775 644 684 807 760
Togo 200 250 185 440 525 550
Uganda 1,840 2,160 2,770 2,290 1,900 2,100
Venezuela 120 160 0 0 0 0
Vietnam 18,840 15,735 15,565 18,670 17,875 19,350
Yemen 30 40 35 30 25 25
Zambia 55 59 39 27 10 15
Zimbabwe 41 27 18 17 6 10
Total 102,839 96,479 99,476 101,736 107,455 102,123
Notes:
A conversion factor of 2.6 was used to convert soluble coffee to the green bean equivalent.
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
For the United States, Canada and the EU-27, exports appear as zero in the database and the actual amount has been subtracted from
imports to show net imports.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011
12. Table 03B Green Coffee Bean Exports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Bean Exports none
Angola 5 4 4 8 5 5
Bolivia 104 73 73 74 75 75
Brazil 26,185 23,770 28,396 26,580 30,630 24,930
Burundi 240 300 250 290 250 270
Cameroon 790 560 480 690 550 525
Central African Republic 45 50 6 25 30 30
Colombia 10,460 10,770 8,160 6,445 8,400 9,000
Congo (Kinshasa) 78 110 117 102 95 100
Costa Rica 1,582 1,588 1,410 1,200 1,350 1,390
Cote d'Ivoire 1,710 1,550 1,180 1,755 1,550 1,700
Cuba 13 5 6 7 7 7
Dominican Republic 50 41 42 36 48 50
Ecuador 300 180 179 450 425 425
El Salvador 1,320 1,580 1,506 1,215 1,575 1,450
Ethiopia 2,225 2,110 1,850 2,325 2,550 2,640
Ghana 28 26 18 30 35 35
Guatemala 3,980 3,890 3,783 3,860 3,940 3,925
Guinea 390 195 375 460 200 400
Haiti 21 19 17 10 6 5
Honduras 3,370 3,440 3,050 3,200 4,000 3,925
India 2,550 2,620 2,120 2,760 2,775 2,500
Indonesia 6,000 5,510 6,625 7,425 7,050 5,150
Jamaica 20 30 26 24 20 25
Kenya 870 820 980 740 750 800
Laos 280 225 250 290 350 375
Liberia 49 25 7 2 1 1
Madagascar 200 165 115 40 85 100
Malawi 17 25 25 24 24 24
Malaysia 21 12 19 16 20 20
Mexico 2,260 1,910 2,125 1,790 1,500 1,400
Nicaragua 1,160 1,580 1,425 1,650 1,850 1,900
Nigeria 9 1 1 3 2 2
Panama 95 96 45 53 50 50
Papua New Guinea 820 900 1,070 1,040 875 1,000
Paraguay 10 10 5 5 5 5
Peru 4,200 2,660 3,830 3,150 3,825 3,650
Rwanda 400 230 340 240 310 325
Sierra Leone 30 25 70 70 40 50
Tanzania 735 720 875 870 700 800
Thailand 200 25 4 4 10 25
Togo 200 250 185 440 525 550
Uganda 1,840 2,160 2,770 2,290 1,900 2,100
Venezuela 85 120 0 0 0 0
Vietnam 18,740 15,600 15,430 18,425 17,550 19,000
Yemen 30 40 35 30 25 25
Zambia 55 59 39 27 10 15
Zimbabwe 41 27 18 17 6 10
Total 93,814 86,106 89,336 90,187 95,979 90,789
Notes:
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
For the United States, Canada and the EU-27, exports appear as zero in the database and the actual amount has been subtracted from
imports to show net imports.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011
13. Table 03C Soluble Coffee Exports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Soluble Exports none
Brazil 3,020 3,395 2,991 3,120 3,300 3,000
Colombia 680 720 725 925 700 750
Cote d'Ivoire 365 320 375 250 300 300
Ecuador 650 760 680 680 825 850
El Salvador 2 2 2 2 2 2
India 1,059 1,200 1,000 1,350 1,325 1,250
Indonesia 400 600 1,075 1,325 1,200 1,200
Malaysia 1,150 1,410 1,600 1,964 1,850 1,900
Mexico 605 700 610 690 650 725
Nicaragua 150 165 160 156 75 150
Tanzania 10 10 5 5 5 0
Thailand 725 750 640 680 797 735
Vietnam 75 115 110 195 275 300
Total 8,891 10,147 9,973 11,342 11,304 11,162
Notes:
A conversion factor of 2.6 was used to convert soluble coffee to the green bean equivalent.
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
For the United States, Canada and the EU-27, exports appear as zero in the database and the actual amount has been subtracted from
imports to show net imports.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011
14. Table 04A Total Coffee Imports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Imports none
Algeria 1,825 2,025 2,045 2,060 2,050 2,025
Argentina 510 490 480 500 515 525
Australia 900 920 950 1,040 1,075 1,100
Canada 1,950 1,960 1,940 2,010 2,300 2,100
China 300 300 320 425 575 675
Colombia 215 142 695 610 790 600
Croatia 330 325 300 300 300 300
Cuba 210 230 240 220 225 225
Ecuador 222 274 389 732 763 817
El Salvador 117 96 167 136 137 142
EU-27 46,530 45,760 45,365 46,405 47,075 45,600
Guatemala 175 193 223 225 230 230
Honduras 12 14 18 18 23 15
India 334 490 555 725 550 500
Indonesia 820 100 120 425 150 200
Japan 7,025 6,860 7,115 6,835 7,650 6,825
Korea, South 1,400 1,550 1,680 1,705 2,000 1,900
Malaysia 1,156 1,200 1,135 1,480 1,420 1,370
Mexico 49 171 114 245 420 370
Morocco 560 570 600 580 510 500
Norway 650 590 610 580 725 600
Philippines 600 915 1,340 1,920 1,850 1,850
Russia 4,410 4,520 3,455 4,075 4,100 3,975
Serbia 590 590 590 525 500 500
South Africa 430 410 330 400 385 400
Switzerland 1,490 1,710 1,800 1,950 2,200 2,000
Thailand 546 530 400 545 675 600
Turkey 230 230 260 275 350 300
United States 23,670 23,475 23,400 22,205 24,400 23,750
Venezuela 96 77 85 205 335 350
Vietnam 115 88 95 75 105 150
Total 97,470 96,809 96,831 99,581 104,473 100,574
Notes:
A conversion factor of 2.6 was used to convert soluble coffee to the green bean equivalent.
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
For the United States, Canada and the EU-27, exports appear as zero in the database and the actual amount has been subtracted from
imports to show net imports.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011
15. Table 04B Green Coffee Bean Imports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Bean Imports none
Algeria 1,825 2,025 2,045 2,060 2,050 2,025
Argentina 510 490 480 500 515 525
Australia 900 920 950 1,040 1,075 1,100
Canada 1,950 1,960 1,940 2,010 2,300 2,100
China 300 300 320 425 575 675
Colombia 190 110 650 570 750 560
Croatia 330 325 300 300 300 300
EU-27 44,370 43,550 43,350 44,280 45,000 43,500
Ecuador 130 210 310 650 700 750
El Salvador 31 1 3 0 0 0
India 334 490 555 725 550 500
Indonesia 820 100 120 425 150 200
Japan 6,200 6,150 6,375 6,160 7,000 6,200
Korea, South 1,400 1,550 1,680 1,705 2,000 1,900
Malaysia 730 660 650 960 850 850
Mexico 21 1 4 90 250 200
Morocco 560 570 600 580 510 500
Norway 650 590 610 580 725 600
Philippines 225 390 405 420 450 400
Russia 960 970 1,240 1,430 1,450 1,475
Serbia 590 590 590 525 500 500
South Africa 430 410 330 400 385 400
Switzerland 1,490 1,710 1,800 1,950 2,200 2,000
Thailand 6 200 130 205 225 200
Turkey 230 230 260 275 350 300
United States 22,110 21,775 21,660 20,250 22,500 21,800
Vietnam 79 65 70 50 80 125
Total 87,424 86,396 87,502 88,870 93,850 90,075
Notes:
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
Imports for the United States, Canada and the EU-27 are net imports after subtracting exports.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011
16. Table 04C Soluble Coffee Imports
Thousand 60-Kilogram Bags
Jun
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
Soluble Imports none
Ecuador 91 64 77 79 60 65
El Salvador 72 80 150 125 125 130
EU-27 2,160 2,210 2,015 2,125 2,075 2,100
Guatemala 125 140 160 165 170 170
Honduras 6 7 10 10 15 15
Japan 825 710 740 675 650 625
Malaysia 406 520 465 500 550 500
Mexico 0 150 95 135 150 150
Philippines 375 525 935 1,500 1,400 1,450
Russia 3,450 3,550 2,215 2,645 2,650 2,500
United States 1,560 1,700 1,740 1,955 1,900 1,950
Vietnam 35 22 25 25 25 25
Total 9,737 10,081 8,982 10,389 10,295 10,180
Notes:
A conversion factor of 2.6 was used to convert soluble coffee to the green bean equivalent.
Coffee marketing year for producer countries begins either in October (Colombia), April (Indonesia) or July (Brazil), as examples.
Coffee marketing year for non-producer countries begins in October.
For the United States, Canada and the EU-27, exports appear as zero in the database and the actual amount has been subtracted from
imports to show net imports.
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis June 2011