Climate change in East African Agriculture by Numbers
•Download as PPTX, PDF•
1 like•270 views
Presentation made in May 2017 by Andy Jarvis in the IFAD Eastern and Southern Africa annual meeting in Uganda. Presentation tells a story of how agriculture is affected by climate change in Africa.
Recommended
More Related Content
More from Decision and Policy Analysis Program
More from Decision and Policy Analysis Program (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Climate change in East African Agriculture by Numbers
Editor's Notes
- People hungry in the world according to WFP
- People hungry in the world according to WFP
- Of year to year yield variability explained by climate. That’s equivalent to 22m Tonnes of maize nnually. Or for the economists, US$3.7bn of product.
- 27% of Yield variability in Uganda explained by climate. That’s equivalent to a swing of 371,000T in production being explained by climate, enough to quench the demand for maize for 7.59m Ugandans every year.
- But add to that, climate change. 2016 was the hottest on record and this is and will have tremendous impacts
- As the spiral continues through this century, 60% of bean growing regions will no longer be viable during this century – bean farmers will have to transform their livelihood strategies. Into what? Cassava, sorghum.
- Of global emissions come from agriculture and livestock. CSA
- That’s why 134 countries have prioritized agriculture or livestock in their commitments to the Paris agreement. Four of them are in Central America and the focus of the agreement just signed.
- 2 degrees – the basis for the Paris agreement. Keep the planet within 2 degrees.
- In East Africa, 2 degrees is equivalent to 370m of altitude. In other words, you have to climb 370m up the mountain to track climate change. That is devasting for agriculture, and especially coffee.
- Economic impacts (per year) of this suitability change for coffee in Uganda
- Night temperatures have already increased by 1.42 degrees C in East Africa, with estimated negative impact of 195kg/Ha already.
- Income increase through intercropping coffee with banana. A win-win adaptation strategy.
- Of cattle are sub-maintenance at some point in the year across Africa. This is enormously inefficient in terms of emissions.
- More milk produced using Brachiaria, with reduced emissions of 30% per litre milk
- 21st June – the story of climate services transforming lives in Senegal. This was the forecast in 2011 when 33 farmers tried their wits against the seasonal forecast produced by Ousmane Ndiaye.
- Experimental in 2011, now a national development initiative. 7.4 million smallholder farmers receive information through 82 radio stations and SMS.
- Probability of El Nino commencing this summer
- One woman, one fruit after seeing their future https://ccafs.cgiar.org/research/annual-report/2016/women-farmers-increase-incomes-and-plant-fruit-trees-after-exposure-farm-future
- Return of investment over 20 years of current IFAD ASAP investments
- Climate and agriculture exist in an unhappy marriage – closely intertwined, yet antagonising each other. Agricultural development can provide some counselling, and 62% of couple who get marriage counselling live happily ever after together.