CityRail2013_Di_Bona_131101_EngChi_hiddenslidesshown

Richard F. Di BonaExtending the Reach of Metro Systems Profitably and Reliably: The Potential of MISTER PRT
7th City-Rail Summit 2013, 26-27 November 2013, Shanghai, China 1
Extending the Reach of Metro
Systems Profitably and Reliably:
The Potential of MISTER
Personal Rapid Transit
如何高效可靠地拓展地铁范围
Richard F. Di Bona
Director, LLA Consultancy Ltd, richard@lla.com.hk
rfdibona@yahoo.com
7th City-Rail Summit 2013, Shanghai, China
26-27 November 2013

Contents目录
1.Typical Issues Faced by Operators
地铁运营商遇到的典型问题
2.Public Transport from the User’s Perspective
从使用者角度看待公共交通
3.Time for a New Solution? Introducing PRT
新的解决方案？请看PRT介绍
4.First or Second Generation PRT? MISTER
第一代还是第二代？
5.Cost-Effectiveness
低成本又高效
6.Quick Case Study: Opole快速案例学习：波兰奥波莱
7.Conclusions总结

Typical Issues
Faced by Metro Operators
地铁运营商遇到的典型问题

Typical Roles of Metro地铁典型角色
 Top of the modal hierarchy in urban public transport
 城市公共交通模型代理机构的顶层机构
 Key spine(s) in a city’s transport infrastructure
 城市基础交通设施的主干道
 Transporting more passengers per km than other modes are capable of
 相较其他运输方式能够输送更多的旅客
 Most major cities could not function efficiently without mass transit
 没有大型轨交，城市无法有效运作
 Critical to efforts to reduce pollution and improve the environment
 减少污染、提高绿色环境的有效保障

Typical Issues for Metro Operators
地铁运营商典型话题
 Financial viability（财政可行性）: CapEx & OpEx subsidies
 As cities grow（城市正在发展）:
• Increased network complexity（增加的城轨网络复杂性）
• Interchange facilities are costly（立体交叉道设施的昂贵性）
• Sprawl creates lower densities and hence lower demand（地铁
的衍生减少了目的地和需求）
• Cost recovery decreases（成本的减少）
 Increased metro crowding in city centers（城市中心增加的地铁
拥挤）
• Not easy to increase capacity significantly once tunnels,
stations, etc built（隧道、地铁等相关设施一旦建成，很难增
加已有旅客容量）
• Those passengers with greater willingness/ ability to pay more
are likely to be lost（有更多支付能力的旅客可能会流失）

Challenges of Feeder Services
供应商挑战
 How to coordinate between different operators?
 如何与不同的地铁运营商合作？
• Coordination and integration?合作与融合？
• Or commercial rivalry?还是商务竞争？
• Government bureaucracy can affect business decisions政府垄断会影
响商务决策
 Feeder services:
 供应商服务
• Caught-up (delayed) in traffic congestion?交通拥挤延迟方案
• Hard to get financial returns on segregated feeders?带隔离政策的地区
的供应商是很难获得财政回报的
» E.g. expensive LRT feeders with low patronage
» 如：高昂的轻轨供应商却获得很少的光顾
 Walking as access and egress:
 步行可以成为解决方式
• Not always convenient/ attractive to customers不总是那么方便/却有
效吸引顾客

Attractive Alternative to Car or Social Need?
 Trying to provide for a social need or trying to
persuade motorists out of their cars?
 提供社会需要还是劝说人们不要坐车？
• Low cost versus high comfort低成本PK高舒适
• Different criteria can be hard to meet simultaneously不通的标准很难
同时被满足
 Profitability is a challenge when social need criteria
predominate
 收益变成挑战当社会需求标准占主导
• Poorer cost recovery更低的成本补偿
• Increased crowding增加的人群拥挤度
• Greater wear-and-tear巨大的亏损
• Reduced level-of-service降低的服务满意度

Public Transport from the
User’s Perspective
从使用者角度看待公共交通

Origin出发
Destination目的地
Public Transport Trip: Strategic View
公共交通旅行：战略观点

Origin出发
Destination
目的地
Journey Broken Down into Stages
Which is the weakest link?
(may vary by city/ area)
Do not overlook any stage!
请不要忽视任何细节！

Do Not Ignore Walking!不要忽视步行！
 Perhaps the most critical mode也许是最重要的模式
 Without walking there is no transit journey没有步行就没有运
输旅行
 Often under-emphasized没有被给予重视的:
• In planning 规划
• In forecasting 预测
• In administration and management 管理
 Metro stations typically 1-2km apart地铁站之间通常差1至2公里
 Walk-in distance often planned at >300 meters步行距离通常
大于300米
 Metro operators typically do not “operate” pedestrian
facilities outside stations地铁运营商通常不运行地铁站外人行道设施
 Poses a significant risk or constraint具有重大危险与限制

Walking is Not Always Easy!
步行并不容易
What about:
 The elderly?
 Disabled?
 With young
children?
 Heavy
shopping
bags?
 In bad
weather?
关于：
老年人？
残疾者？
带小孩的？
有重物的？
坏天气？

Waiting等候
• Uncertainty: increases with interchange不确定性
• Comfort, safety, security of facilities – and bad weather?
• 舒适安全-坏天气呢？

Walking & Waiting in The Weather
遇到不良天气的步行与等候
• Too hot or sunny? Too cold?
• 太冷或太热？
• Too humid or wet? Too windy?
• 潮湿或者遇到大风？
own photo www.telegraph.co.uk
E-teachme.blogspot.com www.telegraph.co.uk

Interchange Issues换乘问题
 How direct are routing options?最直接的选择
 As cities expand more interchanges likely城市的扩张
Kuala Lumpur Sentral Station: 400
metres, not counting in-station
distance, one highway crossing
(more direct route opened in 2012)

Onboard: Comfort, Crowding, etc
在车上：舒适还是拥挤的问题
• Crowding拥挤
• Comfort: getting a seat?舒适
• Temperature温度
• Security安全性
news.bbc.co.uk
www.straitstimes.com news.com.au

Feeders – Journey Time Reliability
车程舒适度
www.unblockcambridge.com
author’s photo author’s photo
author’s photo

Time for a New Solution?
Introducing Personal Rapid
Transit (PRT)
新的解决方案？请看PRT介绍

What is Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)?
个人快轨是什么？
Advanced Transit Association defines PRT as:
权威交通运输行业协会定义PRT为：
 Automated guide way transit system
 自动导向性的运输系统
 Vehicles are designed for a single individual or small group
(family or friends) travelling together
 车辆被设计成服务于个人或小组
 On a segregated network
 拥有单独的网络
 Trips are non-stop without transfers
 通过换乘，行程无中断
 All stations are on bypasses所有站点都经过
• So no interference with mainline traffic
• 主干道交通不会受到干扰

What does PRT Offer?个人快轨提供什么？
 No travelling with strangers不与陌生人同行:
• Improved sense of security提高安全意识
 Stations can be spaced far more closely than metro
站与站直接可以更接近
 Point-to-point journeys:点对点的行程
• No transfers between lines needed无需换车
• Mass customisation大众设定
 Likely quicker journeys for passengers:
 对旅客而言更快的行程速度
• No intermediate stopping没有间接性停止
• Service available on demand, minimal wait
需求适用性、最小限度的等待

Examples of Personal Rapid Transit案例
Left: ULTra on test track
(First Generation PRT)
Right: Morganstown
system
(quasi-PRT since 1975)
(source: wikipedia)
Vectus on test track
(source: company website)
2getthere, Masdar,
Abu Dhabi
(source: company website)
Visual rendering of MISTER
(Second Generation PRT)
(source: MISTER)

First or Second Generation PRT?
Introducing MISTER
MISTER-个人快轨交通的第几代？

e.g. ULTra, Vectus, 2getthere. 例如：ULTra, Vectus, 2getthere
Rely on heavy, supported track. Systems can be:
依靠可支持的轨道，系统可以被分成：
 Wholly elevated (or tunnelled) track & stations: expensive全提高式
 Street-running: space-take; pedestrian & road traffic conflict街跑型
 Street stops & elevated track: significant space-take (ramps)街停型
Issues with First Generation PRT:
第一代个人快轨的问题
 Constrained by topography (natural and man-made)受限于地形
 Moderate speeds (up to 40kph)中等速度
 Large headways (3 seconds+)航行发动率太大
 Have been labeled “low capacity systems” 被称为“低乘客容量系统”
First Generation PRT第一代

MISTER can handle hilly and other constrained environments
MISTER系统掌控山地形及其他限制型的环境:
 MISTER has a 3 meter turning radius拥有3米环绕型半径
 Can handle gradients up to 45 degrees (up or down)倾斜度可至45度
MISTER is based on lightweight, suspended pods基于轻量的、悬挂式点:
 Street-level stops with elevated track (size of bus stop)街道式站点
 Saves space: best of both worlds节约空间
 Saves cost 节约成本
Up to 8 x 5-bay stops per km (staggered on either side of two-way track):
每千米高达8*5的站点设计
 Reduces walk-in distances significantly有效减少步行距离
 Enables improved public transport trip experience提高公共交通管理
经验
Second Generation PRT第二代

Metropolitan Individual System of
Transportation on Elevated Rail城市系统
 First patents filed in 2005
 于2005年，首个模板完成
 1:1 full size working prototype demonstrated in Opole in 2007
 于2007年，1：1再现完整项目原型
 Successfully underwent comprehensive technical and economic due diligence; awarded European Union High
Technology Grant
 成功实施综合技术和经济体结合项目

In addition to lightweight, suspended design
除了轻便以及悬挂的设计外，还有:
 Captive guide way: no possibility of de-railing人工导向
 Static, non-contact switching静止的转换:
• Rail points do not move – saving time, reducing headway
• 轨道接触点不会移动-节约时间、减少航行阻碍
• Stations and intersections can be inserted without changing structure of existing tracks
• 站点之间自行插入，无需改变结构或现有轨道
 Distributed computing – readily scalable分配计算-规模稳定
 Plethora of sensors, monitoring systems, cameras系统过剩:
• Preventing anti-social activities onboard and at stations
• 避免反社会活动进驻车厢
• Offers additional security in neighbourhoods along track
• 提供额外安全和临近措施
MISTER’s Key Attributes主要特性

 Capacity for five people, or two with bicycles, those with shopping bags, pushchairs, wheelchairs
(level boarding)
 能够承载五人或者外加两部自行车，或携带包袋、推椅或轮椅等均可。
 Cornering: swivel suspension means that no super-elevation (cost) of track is required
 转弯悬挂方式等都是可行的
 Freight pods available (max 400kg)
 装货运输等都是可行的（最高可达400kg）
Aboard MISTER车上感觉

 Mainline capacity主干道承载:
• approx. 8,250 passengers per hour per direction
• 每个方向每小时大约7500旅客
• 1.5 pax/pod; 10-metre spacing, 55kph: higher possible
• 1.5倍提速旅客数量，增速，更高可能性
• Can have >1 tracks running parallel for less cost than LRT
• 比LRT的成本更小
 Boarding & alighting capacity机内控制和照明能力:
• 1km of track: 2,700 boardings + 2,700 alightings per km2 per hour
• 1公里：2700次着陆+2700次照明
• 1km grid: 5,400 boardings + 5,400 alightings per km2 per hour
• 1公里：5400次着陆+5400次照明
• 500m grid: 10,800 boardings + 10,800 alightings per km2 per hour
• 500米：10800次着陆+10800次照明
MISTER is not a “Low Capacity” Mode
并非“低容量”模式

 At 55kph, with pods spaced 10m apart:
 55公里每小时，10米相隔
• Headway = 3600 * 0.01 / 55 = 0.65 seconds
• 间隔时间：0.65秒
• 5,500 pods per hour
• 每小时5500舱
• Assuming occupancy of 1.5 (often typical of private car):
• 取得1.5占有率
• 8,250 passengers per hour per direction (pphpd)
• 每方向每小时8250个乘客
 At 70kph: 10,500 pphpd每70公里，10500次
 Platooning of vehicles (closer spacing) feasible to drastically increase this车辆列队
 8,250-10,500 pphpd lower than metro低于地铁8250-10500
 But at RMB30-60m per km (two-way):每千米30-60（双向道）
• It is feasible to have multiple parallel lines可获得多重平行线
• Also offering better coverage同时提供更全面的覆盖率
MISTER Mainline Capacity主线容量

 Assuming 6 stops @ 5 bays per km: 30 bays per km
 Assume 1-minute turnaround: 30 * 60 / 1 = 1,800 pods
 2,700 boardings + 2,700 alightings per km per hour per line
 On a 1-km grid of MISTER: 5,400+5,400 per km2 per hour
 On a 500 metre grid: 10,800+10,800 per km2 per hour
 Quicker turnaround possible with system familiarity
 More and/or larger stops (more bays) also possible
• At key public transport interchanges, private stops in buildings, etc
 As MISTER builds out across a city, demand would become
more dispersed, as opposed to current concentrations at key
rail/ metro stations
MISTER Boarding/ Alighting Capacity

 In a normal urban environment, top speed = 70kph
 在普通环境里，最高时速是70公里每小时
 Average speed likely ≈ 55kph
 平均时速可达55公里每小时
 But for longer distances 120kph possible
 更远距离则可达120公里每小时
• With use of extra drive caddy, used in tandem with inbuilt one
• 使用其他加速器，前后并列的形式
 Enables urban inter-district “trunk” routes
 能够使用内部主干模式
 Also enables inter-urban operations, to link cities
 同样可以在城际之间使用内部承接系统
• Much cheaper than traditional rail systems
• 比传统地铁系统要便宜
Higher Speed Lines

 Due to cost of traditional LRT, monorail, metro systems, often there are
relatively few lines
 由于传统轻型轨交的成本限制，单轨、地铁系统通常涵盖许多条线路
 But a grid of MISTER tracks is possible:
 但是MISTER系统却更为可行
• Spreads demand across the network扩展需求
• Increased boarding/ alighting capacity per unit area设备需求
• Decreases walk-in distances减少步行距离
• 500m grid results in most destinations under 500网络结果
• More point-to-point journeys: improved market penetration更多点对点行程：提
高了市场渗透率
 Property development benefits would be more widespread, covering
larger areas of a city than possible with metro stations 1-2km apart
 财产发展收益将会更加拓展，覆盖城市更多面积
Developing an Urban Grid

Metro: Stations Spaced at 2000m
Within 50m
Within 200m
Within 300m
Within 500m

Metro: Stations Spaced at 1000m
Within 50m
Within 200m
Within 300m
Within 500m

MISTER PRT with One Line
Within 50m
Within 200m
Within 300m
Within 500m

MISTER PRT with 1000-metre grid
Within 50m
Within 200m
Within 300m
Within 500m

MISTER PRT with 500-metre grid
Within 50m
Within 200m
Within 300m
Within 500m

Comparison of Area Coverage
% of Area within
Station Catchment
Area
Metro
Spaced at
2000m
Metro
Spaced at
1000m
MISTER
PRT:
One Line
MISTER
PRT:
1000m Grid
MISTER
PRT:
500m Grid
Within 50m 0.3% 0.5% 2% 6% 10%
Within 200m 4% 7% 19% 61% 96%
Within 300m 9% 16% 31% 82% 100%
Within 500m 25% 44% 54% 100% 100%
Beyond 500m 75% 56% 46% 0% 0%
Track km (Two-way) 2km 2km 2km 8km 16km
Likely Capital Cost ¥2,000m ¥2,000m <¥100m <¥400m <¥750m
Grids of MISTER PRT can be combined with metro lines to
enable metro operators to generate these benefits

Cost-Effectiveness
成本高效

MISTER versus 1st Generation PRT
MISTER比之第一代个人快轨
First Generation
(ULTra, Vectus, 2getthere)
Second Generation
(MISTER PRT)
Guideway Type Heavy, Supported Light, Suspended
Gradients Handled
Shallow Only
(ULTra: up 4.5°; down 2.8°)
45° up or down
(steeper possible)
Typical Cost per km for
two-way track
ULTra: RMB40-110m
(track only)
Source: ULTra website
RMB30-60m
(includes stops and
100 pods per km)
Journey Speed ULTra: Maximum 40kph
Maximum 70kph
Typical 55kph
Headway
ULTra: minimum 3 seconds
ULTra: 6.4 seconds at Heathrow
2getthere: 4 seconds
10 metres
(0.65 seconds
@55kph)
Capacity (passengers
per hour per direction)
Assuming 1.5 pax per pod
ULTra: 1,800
(based on 3 second headway)
8,250

MISTER versus Alternatives
Mister比之其他选择
Capital Costs
(RMBm/km)
Capacity
(passengers/ hour/direction)
Capacity
per RMBm
System Range Say (A) Range Say (B) (B) ÷ (A)
Heavy Metro ¥320-1600m ¥960m 30-90,000 60,000 63
Light Metro ¥240-560m ¥400m 10-40,000 25,000 63
LRT ¥80-560m ¥320m 5-40,000 23,000 72
Tram ¥40-200m ¥120m 2.5-20,000 11,000 92
Monorail ¥210-610m ¥410m 1-15,000 8,000 20
ULTra PRT ¥40-110m ¥75m 1,800 1,800 24
MISTER PRT ¥30–60m ¥45m 8,250 8,250 183
Note: Cheaper LRT and Tram systems are typically at street-level

MISTER versus Alternatives: Sources
Typical ranges used in previous slide based upon the following data sources:
之前的幻灯片引用主要来自以下资料：
• Scholtz-Knobloch Organizing New Light Rail Projects, Banekonference,
Copenhagen 2012
• Montassar DRAIEF-SYSTRA, cited in World Bank / Public Private Infrastructure
Advisory Facility “Alternatives Analysis”
• ULTra Website
• MISTER

Issues with Street-Running Systems
车跑系统的问题
Substantial space-take: with substantial cost
真正的成本问题
 For Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), RMB30-45m per km
• Once cost of roadspace construction considered
 Roads cost about RMB16m/km(+/-) to build (2-lane)
 Land value can be 2-3x more than construction cost
And in addition附加问题:
 Street-running LRT, BRT interferes with road traffic
 And services can be delayed by road traffic
 Can create pedestrian severance issues
These significant additional “hidden” system-wide
costs are often ignored!
这些重要的隐藏的系统成本问题通常会被忽视！

What Does MISTER Offer Operators?
给运营商提供什么？
 Cheaper CapEx and OpEx than alternatives
 更少的资金投入与支出
 Quicker to install than other permanent way systems
 更快的安装系统
 More time reliability than street-running feeders
 时间上更为可靠
 Cheaper than elevated LRT or monorail
 比轻轨和单轨更便宜
 Better potential market penetration
 更好的潜在市场渗透率
• Reduced walk-in distances减少步行距离
 Reduces or eliminates subsidy needs
 减少附加需求
 Enables profitable operations
 可使用获益运营
 MISTER is A transformational stepwise advance in urban transport
 MISTER是一个可转换的进阶式城市交通

Quick Case Study:
Opole, Poland
快速案例学习
波兰，奥普拉

Opole
 Provincial capital in southwest Poland首都在波兰西南部
 Population ≈ 146,000, including tertiary students人口约146000人
 MISTER exhibited 1:1 working prototype in 2007
在2007年首次以1：1原型展出
 Approved implementation of MISTER, subject to MISTER raising finance
MISTER项目实施，易于提高财政收入
 Current modes: commuter rail and bus only
现有模式：轨间线路和公交巴士
rvsci.us wikipedia.org MISTER

Opole Network Tested网线测试版
Phase One: 8.4km
Phase Two: 9.1km
Phase Three: 9.0km
Phase Four: 6.2km
Total One-Four: 32.6km
Phase Five: 14.2km
Phase Six: 6.0km
Grand Total: 52.8km
MISTER network tested:
 Core project of 4 phases, totalling 32.6km
 Two further phases also tested (extra 20.2km)

Opole Demand (2020)主要需求
Passengers per Day on Link
With Phase Six
Fare≈ RMB6 + RMB0.6 per km
approx. 625,000 passenger-km/ day
52.8km network length

 Key assumptions主要假设:
• RMB185m and 18 months for certification
• RMB90m for depot, plus RMB49m per km (two-way)
• After certification, track constructed at 1km per crew
 If certification starts in January 2014如果从2014年1月开始:
• Phase One opens in February 2016
• Phase Four opens in February 2017
• Phase Six opens in October 2017
 Fares set at RMB6 + RMB0.60 per km费用设定
• Slightly higher than bus or trains
• But sensitivity analysis shows that fares could be:
» Increased to maximize revenue
» Decreased to maintain social inclusion, whilst still being profitable

 Phases One to Four (Base Case), including certification:
 一阶段至四阶段所获证书
• Total CapEx≈RMB1,870m (32.6km of two-way track)
• IRR=19.6%
• 24% reduction in overall journey times (all modes)
• 26% reduction in car fuel consumption & emissions
 Phases One to Six (Base Case), including certification:
 一阶段至六阶段所获证书
• Total CapEx≈RMB2,850m (52.8km of two-way track)
• IRR=18.4%
• 33% reduction in overall journey times (all modes)
• 41% reduction in car fuel consumption & emissions
 More details available on request!
 更多细节，请向我询问！
Opole Key Results主要成绩

PLN3.40+0.34/km fares
No PRT Phases 1,2,3,4 Phases 1 to 6
Base Case
Forecast Forecast Impact Forecast Impact
Mode Share
(%)
Car 82% 62% -20% 52% -30%
Non-Car 18% 38% +20% 48% +30%
Average
Journey Time
(minutes)
Car 14.5 12.6 -1.9 11.3 -3.2
Non-Car 19.1 10.0 -9.1 9.2 -9.9
All
Passengers
15.3 11.7 -24% 10.3 -33%
Car Vehicle-km
(million p.a.)
438 347 -21% 291 -33%
Car Fuel Costs
(million PLN p.a.)
258 190 -26% 153 -41%
Summary of Transport Impacts (2020)

PLN3.40+0.34/km fares
No PRT Phases 1,2,3,4 Phases 1 to 6
Base Case
Forecast Forecast Impact Forecast Impact
Average Fare Paid (PLN) 5.85 4.62 -21% 4.55 -22%
Average Walk Time
(minutes)
9.0 4.8 -47% 4.3 -52%
Average Waiting Time
(minutes)
3.0 1.5 -48% 1.2 -58%
Average In-Vehicle Time
(minutes)
7.2 3.7 -48% 3.6 -49%
Average Total Trip Time
(minutes)
19.1 10.0 -48% 9.2 -52%
Public Transport Impacts (2020)

Conclusions结论

 Growing burdens增加的负担:
• Urban sprawl城市无限制扩张
• Social need issues restraining fares and cost recovery社会需要
方法来减少费用和成本补偿
• Coordination with feeders, e.g. buses and walking 调和，诸如
与公交和步行者之间
• Overloading in city centers城市市中心的超负荷
• Driving higher value customers away增加客户价值
Challenges for Mass Transit大众运输线的挑战

 As a transit service in its own right自己承担运输服务
• Where there is insufficient demand for metro, etc
• 地铁不充足的需求弥补等
 As a feeder to conventional mass transit作为传统运营商的供应
• Requires less demand to be viable than metro, LRT, etc
• 需求更少
• Can provide feeder services that do not get stuck in traffic
• 提供的供应商服务不会阻塞交通
• Does not interfere with road traffic or pedestrian movements
• 不会干涉路面交通或者行人移动
 As a premium service relieving congested metro作为额外服务减轻地
铁拥挤
 Can have dual-pricing strategies有双层价格战略
• Feeder: Integrated with metro, LRT for connecting journeys
• 供应商：综合地铁、轻轨优势
• Premium Service: Higher fares when running parallel to metro
• 额外服务：高费用
Possible Applications of MISTER可能的适用面

Thank You！谢谢！
Any other queries? Feel free to contact me:
若有任何问题，请及时与我联系。
rfdibona@yahoo.com
richard@lla.com.hk

CityRail2013_Di_Bona_131101_EngChi_hiddenslidesshown

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