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Change Management and
the Future of Legal Education

       AALS Annual Meeting
            New Orleans, LA
             January 4, 2013


         William D. Henderson
Indiana University Maurer School of Law
The solution
Practice
                          Arc Informed by
Mastery
                          theory and data




                                   Arc under
                                   Traditional
                                     model




           Graduation                            Time
A short story on failure
  (or, my qualifications to give this talk)
Jobs
      Class of 2007                                Class of 1991

                                                 Median = $40,000
        Median = $65,000




One year private tuition = $32,367          One year private tuition = $11,728

                                                                                 4
Query:

What competencies did Henderson
need to achieve his professional
objections?
         •   Communication / Presentation
         •   Listener’s perspective
         •   Persuasiveness
         •   Strategic thinking
Change Management
1. Create a Sense of Urgency

“Well over 50% of the companies I have
  watched fail in this first phase.”
       -- Kotter, Leading Change
What are our business problems?
-- High fixed costs
-- Stagnant job market
-- Industry overcapacity (45,000+ 1L seats per year)
-- Near total financial dependence on DOE loans
-- Tenured faculty control hiring and curriculum
-- Law is on precipice of a radical information
   revolution. See Susskind
16,241 Applicants         Projected applicants for Fall
22.4% decline from 2012   2013 entering class: 54,137
Private Practice
                                Circa 1948
                  Lawyers by Role              • 163,000 Lawyers
Associates
                                               • 45.0% w/ college
   4%               Gov’t,                       degrees; 74.5% w/ law
                  In-House                       degrees
                     11%
                                               • 1.64 lawyers per firm

                                               • 1.9 % lawyers in firms of
             Partners,                           9+ partners
               24%           Solos,
                              61%


                                        Source: Blaustein, “The 1949 Lawyer
                                                Count,” 50 ABA J 370 (1950)
20th Century

Supply                  Demand
US Lawyer Population
                        (1951-2000)
1,200,000



1,000,000



 800,000



 600,000



 400,000



 200,000



       0
            1951   1960   1971                  1980   1991   2000
                                      Year

                                 Lawyer Population
US Lawyer Population
                        (1951-2000)
1,200,000                                                          800


                                                                   700
1,000,000

                                                                   600

 800,000
                                                                   500


 600,000                                                           400


                                                                   300
 400,000

                                                                   200

 200,000
                                                                   100


       0                                                           0
            1951   1960   1971                1980   1991   2000
                                     Year

                                 Lawyer Population
Total Law Firm Employment, 1998 to 2010
                            1,200,000
                                                                       1,122,723
                                                                                                            1,074,994
                            1,100,000
                                        988,898
                            1,000,000
                             900,000
Total Number of Employees




                             800,000
                             700,000
                             600,000
                             500,000
                             400,000
                             300,000
                             200,000
                             100,000
                                   0
                                        1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
                    Generated by
                    William Henderson                                     Year
                    (June 2012)
                                                  Total Employment    2 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Employment)
Incoming 1L Classes, ABA-Accredited Law Schools
                                              1985 to 2011
60,000
                    15% increase in Law Schools (175 to 201)
                         19% increase in 1L enrollment
50,000



40,000



30,000



20,000



10,000



      0


                                 Incoming 1L Class, All Schools    2-Year Moving Average
Source: ABA Section on Legal Education and Admission to the Bar,
         Chart generated by William Henderson (July 2012)
% of Entry Level Jobs in Private Practice
                                                 1985 to 2011
70%


60%


50%


40%


30%


20%


10%


  0%



                        % of Entry Level Jobs in Private Practice         2-Year Moving Average
Source: NALP Bulletin, July 2012, charts generated by William Henderson
,
Outcomes for the Class of 2011



             Other
         Outcomes, 32.8
              %
                            Bar Passage
                          Required, FTLT, 5
                               5.2%



Professional
 FTLT, 3.9%

   JD Advantaged
     FTLT, 8.1%
Outcomes By USN Rank
         0%      10%       20%       30%     40%      50%    60%      70%    80%     90%      100%



Top 14                                      83.1%                                      10.9%


Tier 1                             59.9%                                       30.2%


Tier 2                           53.6%                                        33.3%


Tier 3                      48.2%                                            37.3%


Tier 4                     45.1%                                            41.5%


         BarPassage FTLT         JD Advantaged FTLT     Professional FTLT    Other Outcomes
Market in 2013

Supply                    Demand
Susskind’s Paradigm



Bespoke   Standardized   Systematized   Packaged   Commoditized
Change in # of Employees since 1998
                                        Legal Services Industry
                                Law Offices vs. All Other Legal Services
                         160%

                         140%

                         120%
 % Growth in Employees




                         100%

                         80%

                         60%

                         40%                                     Since 2004:
                                                        Law Offices: -47,729 jobs
                                                        All Other Legal Services: + 7,696
                         20%

                          0%


Generated by
William Henderson
(June 2012)
                                Offices of lawyers    All other legal services
“Every dollar I get, there are three
  that no longer go to Big Law”
   -- LPO Chief Executive (non-lawyer)
Circa 2012




       Legal Profession



       Legal Services Industry

      Legal Industry

       Asia, Automation, Abundance
Susskind’s Paradigm



Bespoke   Standardized   Systematized        Packaged     Commoditized




                               Human capital needed:
                               • Information technology
                               • Systems engineering
                               • Finance
                               • Marketing
                               • Project Management
                               • Law
The solution
Practice
                          Arc Informed by
Mastery
                          theory and data




                                   Arc under
                                   Traditional
                                     model




           Graduation                            Time
Competencies
(or, remember Henderson’s failures)
MacCrate Report (1992)
10 Skills                               4 Values
1. Problem Solving                      1. Providing competent
2. Legal analysis and reasoning            representation;
3. Legal research                       2. Striving to promote
4. Factual investigation                   justice, fairness, and morality;
5. Communication
                                        3. Striving to improve the
6. Counseling
                                           profession;
7. Negotiation
8. Litigation and alternative dispute   4. Professional Self Development
   resolution procedures
9. Organization and management
   of legal work
10.Recognizing and resolving
   ethical dilemmas.


                                                                              35
Predictors of Success at Work and in Life
                       Spencer (1993)
• Achievement Orientation. The         • Interpersonal Understanding.
  desire to attain standards of          Hearing the motives and
  excellence and do                      feelings of diverse others.
  better, improve performance
                                       • Self-Confidence. A person’s
• Initiative. Acting to attain goals     belief in his or her own
  and solve or avoid problems            efficacy, or ability to achieve
  before being forced by events          goals.

• Information Seeking. Digging         • Impact and Influence. A
  deeper for information                 person’s ability to persuade
                                         others to his or her viewpoint.
• Conceptual Thinking. Making
  sense of data and using theories     • Collaborativeness. Working
  and algorithms to solve                effectively with others to
  problems                               achieve common goals.

                                                                           36
LSAC Successful Lawyering Study
                               Shultz and Zedeck (2008)
 Intellectual & Cognitive                    Conflict Resolution
– Analysis and Reasoning                      – Negotiation Skills
– Creativity & Innovation                     – Able to See the World Through the Eyes
                                                of Others
– Problem Solving
– Practical Judgment
                                              Client & Business Relations –
                                                Entrepreneurship
 Research & Information Gathering            – Networking and Business Development
– Researching the Law                         – Providing Advice & Counsel & Building
– Fact Finding                                  Relationships with Clients
– Questioning & Interviewing
                                              Working with Others
 Communications                              – Developing Relationships within the
– Influencing and Advocating                    Legal Profession
– Writing                                     – Evaluation, Development, and
– Speaking                                      Mentoring
– Listening
                                              Character
 Planning and Organization                   – Passion and Engagement
– Strategic Planning                          – Diligence
– Organizing and Managing One’s Own           – Integrity/Honesty
  Work                                        – Stress Management
– Organizing and Managing Others              – Community Involvement and Service
  (Staff/Colleagues)                          – Self-Development

                                                                                      37
Predictors of Success at Work and in Life
                       Spencer (1993)
• Achievement Orientation. The         • Interpersonal Understanding.
  desire to attain standards of          Hearing the motives and
  excellence and do                      feelings of diverse others.
  better, improve performance
                                       • Self-Confidence. A person’s
• Initiative. Acting to attain goals     belief in his or her own
  and solve or avoid problems            efficacy, or ability to achieve
  before being forced by events          goals.

• Information Seeking. Digging         • Impact and Influence. A
  deeper for information                 person’s ability to persuade
                                         others to his or her viewpoint.
• Conceptual Thinking. Making
  sense of data and using theories     • Collaborativeness. Working
  and algorithms to solve                effectively with others to
  problems                               achieve common goals.

                                                                           38
2. Building the Guiding Team
   “Major renewal programs often start
   with just one or two people. In cases
   of successful transformation
   efforts, the leadership coalition grows
   over time.”
          -- Kotter, Leading Change
3. Get the Right Vision

“If you can’t communicate the vision
to someone in five minutes or less and
get a reaction that signifies both
understanding and interest, you are
not done with this phase of the
transformation phase,”

      -- Kotter, Leading Change
Resources
• Henderson, A Blueprint for
  Change, Pepperdine Law Review (2013)

• Fred Nichols, Change Management 101: A
  Primer (2008)

• Chris Argyris, Teaching Smart People How to
  Learn, Harvard Business Review (1991)

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Change Management and the Future of Legal Education

  • 1. Change Management and the Future of Legal Education AALS Annual Meeting New Orleans, LA January 4, 2013 William D. Henderson Indiana University Maurer School of Law
  • 2. The solution Practice Arc Informed by Mastery theory and data Arc under Traditional model Graduation Time
  • 3. A short story on failure (or, my qualifications to give this talk)
  • 4. Jobs Class of 2007 Class of 1991 Median = $40,000 Median = $65,000 One year private tuition = $32,367 One year private tuition = $11,728 4
  • 5. Query: What competencies did Henderson need to achieve his professional objections? • Communication / Presentation • Listener’s perspective • Persuasiveness • Strategic thinking
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. 1. Create a Sense of Urgency “Well over 50% of the companies I have watched fail in this first phase.” -- Kotter, Leading Change
  • 12. What are our business problems? -- High fixed costs -- Stagnant job market -- Industry overcapacity (45,000+ 1L seats per year) -- Near total financial dependence on DOE loans -- Tenured faculty control hiring and curriculum -- Law is on precipice of a radical information revolution. See Susskind
  • 13. 16,241 Applicants Projected applicants for Fall 22.4% decline from 2012 2013 entering class: 54,137
  • 14. Private Practice Circa 1948 Lawyers by Role • 163,000 Lawyers Associates • 45.0% w/ college 4% Gov’t, degrees; 74.5% w/ law In-House degrees 11% • 1.64 lawyers per firm • 1.9 % lawyers in firms of Partners, 9+ partners 24% Solos, 61% Source: Blaustein, “The 1949 Lawyer Count,” 50 ABA J 370 (1950)
  • 15.
  • 17. US Lawyer Population (1951-2000) 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 1951 1960 1971 1980 1991 2000 Year Lawyer Population
  • 18. US Lawyer Population (1951-2000) 1,200,000 800 700 1,000,000 600 800,000 500 600,000 400 300 400,000 200 200,000 100 0 0 1951 1960 1971 1980 1991 2000 Year Lawyer Population
  • 19. Total Law Firm Employment, 1998 to 2010 1,200,000 1,122,723 1,074,994 1,100,000 988,898 1,000,000 900,000 Total Number of Employees 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Generated by William Henderson Year (June 2012) Total Employment 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Total Employment)
  • 20. Incoming 1L Classes, ABA-Accredited Law Schools 1985 to 2011 60,000 15% increase in Law Schools (175 to 201) 19% increase in 1L enrollment 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Incoming 1L Class, All Schools 2-Year Moving Average Source: ABA Section on Legal Education and Admission to the Bar, Chart generated by William Henderson (July 2012)
  • 21. % of Entry Level Jobs in Private Practice 1985 to 2011 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % of Entry Level Jobs in Private Practice 2-Year Moving Average Source: NALP Bulletin, July 2012, charts generated by William Henderson
  • 22. ,
  • 23. Outcomes for the Class of 2011 Other Outcomes, 32.8 % Bar Passage Required, FTLT, 5 5.2% Professional FTLT, 3.9% JD Advantaged FTLT, 8.1%
  • 24. Outcomes By USN Rank 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Top 14 83.1% 10.9% Tier 1 59.9% 30.2% Tier 2 53.6% 33.3% Tier 3 48.2% 37.3% Tier 4 45.1% 41.5% BarPassage FTLT JD Advantaged FTLT Professional FTLT Other Outcomes
  • 26.
  • 27. Susskind’s Paradigm Bespoke Standardized Systematized Packaged Commoditized
  • 28. Change in # of Employees since 1998 Legal Services Industry Law Offices vs. All Other Legal Services 160% 140% 120% % Growth in Employees 100% 80% 60% 40% Since 2004: Law Offices: -47,729 jobs All Other Legal Services: + 7,696 20% 0% Generated by William Henderson (June 2012) Offices of lawyers All other legal services
  • 29.
  • 30. “Every dollar I get, there are three that no longer go to Big Law” -- LPO Chief Executive (non-lawyer)
  • 31. Circa 2012 Legal Profession Legal Services Industry Legal Industry Asia, Automation, Abundance
  • 32. Susskind’s Paradigm Bespoke Standardized Systematized Packaged Commoditized Human capital needed: • Information technology • Systems engineering • Finance • Marketing • Project Management • Law
  • 33. The solution Practice Arc Informed by Mastery theory and data Arc under Traditional model Graduation Time
  • 35. MacCrate Report (1992) 10 Skills 4 Values 1. Problem Solving 1. Providing competent 2. Legal analysis and reasoning representation; 3. Legal research 2. Striving to promote 4. Factual investigation justice, fairness, and morality; 5. Communication 3. Striving to improve the 6. Counseling profession; 7. Negotiation 8. Litigation and alternative dispute 4. Professional Self Development resolution procedures 9. Organization and management of legal work 10.Recognizing and resolving ethical dilemmas. 35
  • 36. Predictors of Success at Work and in Life Spencer (1993) • Achievement Orientation. The • Interpersonal Understanding. desire to attain standards of Hearing the motives and excellence and do feelings of diverse others. better, improve performance • Self-Confidence. A person’s • Initiative. Acting to attain goals belief in his or her own and solve or avoid problems efficacy, or ability to achieve before being forced by events goals. • Information Seeking. Digging • Impact and Influence. A deeper for information person’s ability to persuade others to his or her viewpoint. • Conceptual Thinking. Making sense of data and using theories • Collaborativeness. Working and algorithms to solve effectively with others to problems achieve common goals. 36
  • 37. LSAC Successful Lawyering Study Shultz and Zedeck (2008)  Intellectual & Cognitive Conflict Resolution – Analysis and Reasoning – Negotiation Skills – Creativity & Innovation – Able to See the World Through the Eyes of Others – Problem Solving – Practical Judgment Client & Business Relations – Entrepreneurship  Research & Information Gathering – Networking and Business Development – Researching the Law – Providing Advice & Counsel & Building – Fact Finding Relationships with Clients – Questioning & Interviewing Working with Others  Communications – Developing Relationships within the – Influencing and Advocating Legal Profession – Writing – Evaluation, Development, and – Speaking Mentoring – Listening Character  Planning and Organization – Passion and Engagement – Strategic Planning – Diligence – Organizing and Managing One’s Own – Integrity/Honesty Work – Stress Management – Organizing and Managing Others – Community Involvement and Service (Staff/Colleagues) – Self-Development 37
  • 38. Predictors of Success at Work and in Life Spencer (1993) • Achievement Orientation. The • Interpersonal Understanding. desire to attain standards of Hearing the motives and excellence and do feelings of diverse others. better, improve performance • Self-Confidence. A person’s • Initiative. Acting to attain goals belief in his or her own and solve or avoid problems efficacy, or ability to achieve before being forced by events goals. • Information Seeking. Digging • Impact and Influence. A deeper for information person’s ability to persuade others to his or her viewpoint. • Conceptual Thinking. Making sense of data and using theories • Collaborativeness. Working and algorithms to solve effectively with others to problems achieve common goals. 38
  • 39.
  • 40. 2. Building the Guiding Team “Major renewal programs often start with just one or two people. In cases of successful transformation efforts, the leadership coalition grows over time.” -- Kotter, Leading Change
  • 41. 3. Get the Right Vision “If you can’t communicate the vision to someone in five minutes or less and get a reaction that signifies both understanding and interest, you are not done with this phase of the transformation phase,” -- Kotter, Leading Change
  • 42.
  • 43. Resources • Henderson, A Blueprint for Change, Pepperdine Law Review (2013) • Fred Nichols, Change Management 101: A Primer (2008) • Chris Argyris, Teaching Smart People How to Learn, Harvard Business Review (1991)

Editor's Notes

  1. Not for your education, but to show my bona fides
  2. corporate or gov’t – made $6,300.Non-salaried lawyers in private practice – i.e., the owner of the firm – made $5,199Gov’t made $5,518. Lawyers in 9+ firms made 5x solo lawyers Limited specialization Your incomes today come from specialization
  3. More regulation More litigation, commercial, often pertaining to litigation. More innovation, often from Wall Street More complex business that span state and national boundariesLawyer Per Capital: 1 lawyer for every 700 Citizens in 1950 1 in 280 in 2000The work was there to support it. But we were more specialized – and productive.
  4. Susskind’s continuum:Bespoke -> Standardized -> Systematized -> Productized -> CommoditizedLawyers want to stay in bespoke = Unique, Custom-made -> It costs more; and it is more familiarBut customers want to the cost saving and high quality of moving the continuum: prices go down, quality goes up.Further, Systematized/Productized space can be very lucrative -> But you most continually innovate to stay there.What skills?: IT, Systems engineering, Finance, Marketing, Law Work together Lawyer is not incharge
  5. Axiom, Clearspire, Novus Law, Pangea3, LegalZoom, RocketLawyer, Huron Consulting Group, Practical Law Company, MindcrestAll of these companies are financed by non-lawyer investment.Innovation does not need an amendment of Rule 5.4 to happen. ABA Commission on Ethics 20/20Rather, 5.4 is a bar to traditional law firms WITH STRONG BRANDS collaborating with brilliant nonlawyers with technological knowledge.
  6. All of these companies are financed by non-lawyer investment.Innovation does not need an amendment of Rule 5.4 to happen. ABA Commission on Ethics 20/20Rather, 5.4 is a bar to traditional law firms WITH STRONG BRANDS collaborating with brilliant nonlawyers with technological knowledge.
  7. Susskind’s continuum:Bespoke -> Standardized -> Systematized -> Productized -> CommoditizedLawyers want to stay in bespoke = Unique, Custom-made -> It costs more; and it is more familiarBut customers want to the cost saving and high quality of moving the continuum: prices go down, quality goes up.Further, Systematized/Productized space can be very lucrative -> But you most continually innovate to stay there.What skills?: IT, Systems engineering, Finance, Marketing, Law Work together Lawyer is not incharge