CFAR-m Unique Selling Proposition (USP)
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This document summarizes a novel ranking technique called CFAR-m that has three unique features: objectivity with no manipulation of weights, specificity through individual equations for each indicator, and decision support through simulations and proposed plans of action. CFAR-m has been used to rank countries on governance, institutional quality, poverty, and human development. It has also been used in research projects to build new composite indicators and integrate them into economic models related to governance and development. CFAR-m can be applied to sensitivity analysis, variable selection, and modeling complex phenomena in various fields such as economics, social issues, finance, and more.
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CFAR-m 
The document discusses a new technique called CFAR-m for constructing aggregate indicators from large databases with multiple variables. CFAR-m uses a three stage process: 1) It clusters items into homogeneous groups using self-organizing maps that account for positive and negative interactions between variables. 2) It determines an appropriate weighting vector for each item. 3) It applies the weighting vectors to calculate a composite indicator and overall ranking. This technique provides advantages over traditional methods by not losing any information and being adapted to large qualitative and quantitative databases. The weighting comes from the internal dynamics and informational content of the variables themselves, avoiding subjective estimates. The method has applications across many fields including economics, social sciences, finance, insurance, medicine, geo
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This document provides background information on a study investigating the effects of enterprise risk management strategies on the growth of real estate firms in Kenya. It discusses how enterprise risk management jointly manages firm risk using multiple techniques. The study aims to determine if financial, operational, regulatory and strategic risk management lead to growth in the real estate sector in Kenya. A conceptual framework is presented showing the relationships between the risk management strategies and sector growth. The methodology section outlines that the study will use a survey research design to collect primary data via questionnaire from 138 employees of 69 real estate developers in Kenya. Data will then be analyzed using statistical techniques like percentages, mean, standard deviation and t-tests.
Facilitating organisationaldecision making a change riska.docx
Facilitating organisational
decision making: a change risk
assessment model case study
Charalampos Apostolopoulos and George Halikias
School of Mathematics, Computer Science and Engineering,
City University London, London, UK
Krikor Maroukian
Department of Informatics, King’s College London, London, UK, and
Georgios Tsaramirsis
Department of Information Technology, King Abdulaziz University,
Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Abstract
Purpose – This paper aims to take the challenge to propose a novel modelling approach named
Change Risk Assessment Model (CRAM), which will contribute significantly to the missing formality of
business models especially in the change risk assessment area and decision-making. Organisational
change risks are assessed with the aid of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in an attempt to define the
internal dynamics of organisational change management within project management eliciting also risk
cause-and-effect relationships.
Design/methodology/approach – The study discusses interviews/survey/AHP.
Findings – The study presents the following findings. Change risk factors assessment (identification
and prioritisation) recommendations (see Case Study) integration of change management; project
management; risk management top four risk factors, namely, leadership, communication, project
management team and culture.
Research limitations/implications – As projects can be different in a variety of factors (quality,
scope), an exhaustive list of risk factors cannot be identified. There is a continuous risk identification
process throughout the projects’ life cycle. For example, many risks can be classified initially as
unknown and can be refined after the initiation phase of the project. AHP factors limitation (eight per
level) possible bias (survey analysis).
Practical implications – With the aid of modelling and especially CRAM, business change risks can
be assessed numerically and prioritised. Several risk factors and related attributes were identified and
categorised. This empowers project managers or other stakeholders to make proper decisions about
whether to take on or abandon respective organisational or project changes.
Social implications – One of the values of CRAM is that it can be regarded as a global change risk
assessment method that can be applied regardless of project type, size or organisation. Moreover, it has
the advantage that it can be used by any kind of project, as the method is designed to be tailored to
specific needs, taking significant environmental change risk factors into account. AHP has numerous
uses in operational research, in project management and in general in areas where decisions (evaluation
and selection) have to be made. The analysis of the case study presented, indicated that it is vital to
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CFAR-m
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This document discusses forecasting models and techniques. It begins with an introduction to forecasting, then describes two main types of forecasting - business forecasting to predict customer demand, and macroeconomic forecasting to predict economic trends. Next, it outlines qualitative and quantitative forecasting techniques, including executive opinion, market surveys, time-series models, and associative models. It provides examples of forecasting applications in operations, marketing, finance, economics, and demography. It concludes by noting forecasts can be inaccurate when factors are unknown or data is limited.
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This document discusses best practices for model risk audits, which provide assurance that a bank's model risk management is adequate. It focuses on how a model risk audit team can effectively examine stakeholders in the first and second lines of defense. Regarding the first line, the audit team should assess model development, data quality, usage, performance, output, and human resources. For the second line, the team should evaluate the model risk management function, including the model inventory, validation process, and governance. The goal is to test the overall quality and timeliness of model validation and risk management.
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Facilitating organisationaldecision making a change riska.docx
Facilitating organisational
decision making: a change risk
assessment model case study
Charalampos Apostolopoulos and George Halikias
School of Mathematics, Computer Science and Engineering,
City University London, London, UK
Krikor Maroukian
Department of Informatics, King’s College London, London, UK, and
Georgios Tsaramirsis
Department of Information Technology, King Abdulaziz University,
Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Abstract
Purpose – This paper aims to take the challenge to propose a novel modelling approach named
Change Risk Assessment Model (CRAM), which will contribute significantly to the missing formality of
business models especially in the change risk assessment area and decision-making. Organisational
change risks are assessed with the aid of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in an attempt to define the
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Findings – The study presents the following findings. Change risk factors assessment (identification
and prioritisation) recommendations (see Case Study) integration of change management; project
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management team and culture.
Research limitations/implications – As projects can be different in a variety of factors (quality,
scope), an exhaustive list of risk factors cannot be identified. There is a continuous risk identification
process throughout the projects’ life cycle. For example, many risks can be classified initially as
unknown and can be refined after the initiation phase of the project. AHP factors limitation (eight per
level) possible bias (survey analysis).
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be assessed numerically and prioritised. Several risk factors and related attributes were identified and
categorised. This empowers project managers or other stakeholders to make proper decisions about
whether to take on or abandon respective organisational or project changes.
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assessment method that can be applied regardless of project type, size or organisation. Moreover, it has
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specific needs, taking significant environmental change risk factors into account. AHP has numerous
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With increasing competition in today’s global market, the firms have to look to the modern strategic manners, in order to gain sustainable organization and competitive advantage. Sustainable organization performance is an emerging and innovative managerial tool which can be used as a strategic weapon to gain competitiveness and to promote the firms environmental and financial performance simultaneously. The aim of the research was to examine impact of good corporate governance principles on sustainable performance in the Kenyan public sector organizations. The study found out how the following good governance principles influences sustainable performance in the Kenyan public sector organizations; good governance principles, risk management practices and practical recommendations for good governance. A mixed research design was used in this study.
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Student 1:
The main intention of this framework is to support large corporate organizations with their portfolio management and process of the risk management. The framework is able to handle insurance risk and non-insurance risk. It is suggested to use the framework within the recognized enterprise risk management correction. James Lam has defined four benefits to risk management which are as follows: handling risk is managements’ job; the instability of the earnings will be reduced by the managing risk; the shareholders’ value can be maximized with the help of managing risk; financial security and job security are promoted by the risk management (Zhou & Xu, 2018)
Handling risk is managements’ job–the duty of the management is to use the critical information of the business to manage the risk. This will lead to give transparency in managing costs and improves the understanding of the risk.
The instability of the earnings will be reduced by the managing risk–with the help of the activities of the risk management, the top companies will able to manage their earnings instability in a better way.
The shareholders’ value can be maximized with the help of managing risk–the companies can be able to increase their shareholders’ value with maximum percentage and also can be able to identify the opportunities for business optimization and risk management by using the risk based program. Volatility can be managed well and business model performance can be extended with correct information that is spread across the organization (Liang et al., 2017)
The efficient frontier will be send to the business leaders directly and they will become the holders of the risks for their respective areas of influence. The efficient frontier has to learn the language of the risk. It is fundamentally assumed that the risk transfer and lines of insurance will be modelled properly. This is significant assumption, as plain modelling foibles, internal disputes, information asymmetry and data limitations will be easily disturb the best intentions of the framework. It is very necessary to test any kind of model and if possible back test the model and involvement of different business leaders is also important to examine the results of the model. It is important to involve independent experts to question and examine the assumptions of the model (Tajani & Morano, 2017)
References
Liang, J., Zhong, M., Zeng, G., Chen, G., Hua, S., & Li, X. et al. (2017). Risk management for optimal land use planning integrating ecosystem services values: A case study in Changsha, Middle China. Science Of The Total Environment, 579(2), 1675-1682.
Tajani, F., & Morano, P. (2017). Evaluation of vacant and redundant public properties and risk control. Journal Of Property Investment & Finance, 35(1), 75-100.
Zhou, W., & Xu, Z. (2018). Portfolio selection and risk investment under the hesitant fuzzy environment. Knowledge-Based Systems, 144(2), 21-31.
Student 2:
Uses of Efficient Frontier Analysis.
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Chapter 3 presented the approach Mars, Incorporated used to implement ERM, and chapter 5 presented the University of California Health System’s ERM development. In what ways are the two organization’s approaches to ERM similar? How do they differ? Choose one aspect of each ERM implementation from which the other organization would benefit and explain why.
To complete this assignment, you must do the following:
A) As indicated above, describe in what ways the two organization’s approaches to ERM are similar. Also, explain how they differ. Choose one aspect of each ERM implementation from which the other organization would benefit and explain why.
ITS 835
Chapter 3
ERM at Mars, Incorporated: ERM for Strategy and
Operations
Enterprise Risk Management
Dr. Les Stovall
Introduction
• Mars’ ERM history
• Phase 1 – Crash and Burn
• Phase 2 - Success
• Global rollout
• Reporting
• Operating workshops
• Technology
• Aggregation
• Template evolution
• Conclusion
Mars’ ERM History
• Mars, Incorporated
• Privately held -> migration to non-family management
• Decentralized management
• Leadership had legacy commitment to risk management
• ERM was viewed as an evolution
• COSO versus bespoke approach
• COSO – Committee of Sponsoring Organizations structure
• Bespoke approach won
• Phase 1
• Failed due to being impractical and overly complex
• Phase 2
• Simpler and targeted
Planning Workshops
• Desire to align senior management goals with ERM
• Started with simple template
• Operating plan initiative sheet
• Objective
• Score
• Risk column
• Risk treatment column
• Management team met to define and rank
• Risks
• Risk treatments
• Changed label from “mitigations”
Global Rollout
• Used lessons learned from pilot
• Each unit has specific nuances
• Interviewing GM and CFO together saved subsequent
interview time
• Workshops helped to identify
• Gaps in risk management readiness
• High-risk initiatives
• Ongoing activities with unexpected high risk
Reporting
• Color-coding adds
• Urgency
• Clarity
• Groups are defined
• Clusters
• Score represents
• Confidence of meeting
goals
Reporting, cont’d.
Reporting, cont’d.
Reporting, cont’d.
Operating Workshops
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• Technology
• Early-on, process was technology agnostic
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• Excel -> purpose-built software
• ERM supports aggregation
• More complete view of organizational impact of risk
• Continual template evolution
• Added risk treatment owners and due dates
Summary
• Mars received an award for their ERM
• Corporate Executive Boards’ “Force of Ideas Award” for ERM
• Key factors for ERM success
• Alignment with Mars’ principles
• Focus on meeting objectives
• Operational
• Strategic
• Flexible
• Realistic
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Chapter 5
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• Technology
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CFAR-m Differentiators
CFAR-m is an expert system that provides objective, unbiased rankings and clusterings based solely on the internal dynamics of complex data sets, without any external weighting or manipulation. It makes automatic rankings and proposes optimal reform plans and simulations. Key unique advantages include endogenously extracting weightings from data, capturing non-linear variable relationships, and providing each variable's contribution to rankings for better analysis. Competitors cannot match CFAR-m's full feature set for aggregation, ranking, and understanding complex data.
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Model risk and the importance of model risk management has gotten significant attention in the last few years. As financial companies increase their reliance on quants and quantitative models for decision making, they are increasingly exposed to model risk and are looking for ways to mitigate it. The financial crisis of 2008 and various high profile financial accidents due to model failures has brought model risk management to the forefront as an important topic to be addressed. Many regulatory efforts (Solvency II, Basel III, Dodd-Frank etc.) have been initiated obligating banks and financial institutions to incorporate formal model risk management programs to address model risk. Regulatory agencies have issued guidance letters and supervisory insights to assist companies in developing model risk management programs. In the United States, as the Dodd-Frank act is implemented, newer guidance letters have been issued that emphasize model risk management. Despite these efforts, in practice, financial companies continue to struggle in formulating and developing a model risk management program. A lot of companies acknowledge and understand the model risk management guidelines in spirit but have practical challenges in implementing these guidance letters. In our prior article on model risk , we discussed many drivers to address model risk and challenges in integrating model risk into the quant development process. In this talk, we will discuss ten best practices for the implementation of an effective model risk management program. These best practices have evolved from discussions with industry experts and consulting projects we have worked with in the recent years to create robust risk management programs. These best practices meant to provide practical tips for companies embarking on a formal model risk management program or enhancing their model risk methodologies to address the new realities
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Student 1 The main intention of this framework is to support .docx
Student 1:
The main intention of this framework is to support large corporate organizations with their portfolio management and process of the risk management. The framework is able to handle insurance risk and non-insurance risk. It is suggested to use the framework within the recognized enterprise risk management correction. James Lam has defined four benefits to risk management which are as follows: handling risk is managements’ job; the instability of the earnings will be reduced by the managing risk; the shareholders’ value can be maximized with the help of managing risk; financial security and job security are promoted by the risk management (Zhou & Xu, 2018)
Handling risk is managements’ job–the duty of the management is to use the critical information of the business to manage the risk. This will lead to give transparency in managing costs and improves the understanding of the risk.
The instability of the earnings will be reduced by the managing risk–with the help of the activities of the risk management, the top companies will able to manage their earnings instability in a better way.
The shareholders’ value can be maximized with the help of managing risk–the companies can be able to increase their shareholders’ value with maximum percentage and also can be able to identify the opportunities for business optimization and risk management by using the risk based program. Volatility can be managed well and business model performance can be extended with correct information that is spread across the organization (Liang et al., 2017)
The efficient frontier will be send to the business leaders directly and they will become the holders of the risks for their respective areas of influence. The efficient frontier has to learn the language of the risk. It is fundamentally assumed that the risk transfer and lines of insurance will be modelled properly. This is significant assumption, as plain modelling foibles, internal disputes, information asymmetry and data limitations will be easily disturb the best intentions of the framework. It is very necessary to test any kind of model and if possible back test the model and involvement of different business leaders is also important to examine the results of the model. It is important to involve independent experts to question and examine the assumptions of the model (Tajani & Morano, 2017)
References
Liang, J., Zhong, M., Zeng, G., Chen, G., Hua, S., & Li, X. et al. (2017). Risk management for optimal land use planning integrating ecosystem services values: A case study in Changsha, Middle China. Science Of The Total Environment, 579(2), 1675-1682.
Tajani, F., & Morano, P. (2017). Evaluation of vacant and redundant public properties and risk control. Journal Of Property Investment & Finance, 35(1), 75-100.
Zhou, W., & Xu, Z. (2018). Portfolio selection and risk investment under the hesitant fuzzy environment. Knowledge-Based Systems, 144(2), 21-31.
Student 2:
Uses of Efficient Frontier Analysis.
Exploring hedging practices and policies of power and utility firms
The document summarizes the findings of a survey of 15 power and utility firms regarding their hedging practices and policies. Key findings include:
1) Most firms maintained formally defined and governed hedging programs, though regulators played a less direct role than internal stakeholders.
2) Firms faced consistent regulatory environments and had similar hedging objectives, resulting in broadly consistent approaches.
3) Dynamic industry factors may require changes to policies, but firms had not made changes in response yet.
Risck intelligence in the energy and resources industry
DELOITTE TECHNOLOGIES
Risk Intelligence in the Energy & Resources Industry
Enterprise Risk Management Benchmark Survey Report
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Despite strategic management advocating for the use of strategic control practices to improve the implementation of strategic plans and competitive position, establishing the strategic control-performance relationship has been problematic, suggesting failure by researchers to consider contingent variables. This study used data, collected during the period November 2008 to May 2009 from 109 senior managers in a census survey of 45 firms in the sugar value-chain in western Kenya, to examine the moderating effect of strategic orientation on the relationship between belief control and competitive position. Descriptive statistics, bi-variate regression analysis and moderated regression analysis were used to analyze data. The findings revealed moderate prevalence of Interactive control mean 2.86, std dev 0.83. The most prevalent strategic orientation was the reactor (60%), followed by defender (24%); prospectors (9%) and analyzers (7%). All the four levers were positively and significantly related to competitive position (interactive β = 0.393, p < 0.01). The results of this study suggest that urgent measures are required by the firms in the study to design interractive control systems to cope with the changing business environment. The study contributes to validation and upgrade of the existing belief control theory. For managers, the study sheds light on the design and use of belief controls and also for public sector managers in guiding the strategic change. It is recommended that future studies focus on the specific firms in sugar value chain and adopt longitudinal casestudy designs to establish causal relationships among variables.
Chapter 3 presented the approach Mars, Incorporated used to implem.docx
Chapter 3 presented the approach Mars, Incorporated used to implement ERM, and chapter 5 presented the University of California Health System’s ERM development. In what ways are the two organization’s approaches to ERM similar? How do they differ? Choose one aspect of each ERM implementation from which the other organization would benefit and explain why.
To complete this assignment, you must do the following:
A) As indicated above, describe in what ways the two organization’s approaches to ERM are similar. Also, explain how they differ. Choose one aspect of each ERM implementation from which the other organization would benefit and explain why.
ITS 835
Chapter 3
ERM at Mars, Incorporated: ERM for Strategy and
Operations
Enterprise Risk Management
Dr. Les Stovall
Introduction
• Mars’ ERM history
• Phase 1 – Crash and Burn
• Phase 2 - Success
• Global rollout
• Reporting
• Operating workshops
• Technology
• Aggregation
• Template evolution
• Conclusion
Mars’ ERM History
• Mars, Incorporated
• Privately held -> migration to non-family management
• Decentralized management
• Leadership had legacy commitment to risk management
• ERM was viewed as an evolution
• COSO versus bespoke approach
• COSO – Committee of Sponsoring Organizations structure
• Bespoke approach won
• Phase 1
• Failed due to being impractical and overly complex
• Phase 2
• Simpler and targeted
Planning Workshops
• Desire to align senior management goals with ERM
• Started with simple template
• Operating plan initiative sheet
• Objective
• Score
• Risk column
• Risk treatment column
• Management team met to define and rank
• Risks
• Risk treatments
• Changed label from “mitigations”
Global Rollout
• Used lessons learned from pilot
• Each unit has specific nuances
• Interviewing GM and CFO together saved subsequent
interview time
• Workshops helped to identify
• Gaps in risk management readiness
• High-risk initiatives
• Ongoing activities with unexpected high risk
Reporting
• Color-coding adds
• Urgency
• Clarity
• Groups are defined
• Clusters
• Score represents
• Confidence of meeting
goals
Reporting, cont’d.
Reporting, cont’d.
Reporting, cont’d.
Operating Workshops
• Several ongoing changes
• Technology
• Early-on, process was technology agnostic
• Word -> Excel
• Excel -> purpose-built software
• ERM supports aggregation
• More complete view of organizational impact of risk
• Continual template evolution
• Added risk treatment owners and due dates
Summary
• Mars received an award for their ERM
• Corporate Executive Boards’ “Force of Ideas Award” for ERM
• Key factors for ERM success
• Alignment with Mars’ principles
• Focus on meeting objectives
• Operational
• Strategic
• Flexible
• Realistic
ITS 835
Chapter 5
ERM in Practice at the University of California Health
System
Enterprise Risk Management
Dr. Les Stovall
Introduction
• University of California’s ERM
• Technology
• Premiu ...
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Unit 43LO1Business strategy, Ansoff.pptx
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Systemic M&E case study
This document summarizes a case study on applying seven principles for monitoring and evaluating systemic change to the Market Assistance Program (MAP) in Kenya. MAP aims to improve incomes of poor people through market facilitation and catalytic interventions. The case study evaluates how well each of the seven principles- indirectness of impact, depth of impact, network-driven change, unpredictability, sensitivity to external signals, information deficit, and sustainability as adaptability- fit with MAP's work. It finds that MAP staff widely accept the principles and they inform strategies, but some tensions remain between measuring systemic vs. superficial impacts, and between information needs of management vs. donors. The study provides insights into each principle and suggests MAP could strengthen its ability to measure network
Enterprise 360 degree risk management
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ACRP-Clinical-Researcher-RBM-CRO-Perspective-Medpace
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Mtm9 white paper macro-environmental (steep) analysis
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Building model trust
Strong model risk management is important for insurers given their increasing reliance on complex models. Leading insurers develop MRM frameworks with policies for model governance, development and validation. Key aspects of model governance include defining models, maintaining an inventory, setting risk limits, and establishing roles and responsibilities. Models should be developed by experts in a controlled environment with thorough documentation. Independent validation ensures models are performing as intended, with priority given to riskier models. Validators check models against other independent models and outputs to identify any issues requiring remediation.
IRJET- Risk Management in Construction: A Literature Review
This document reviews literature on risk management in the construction industry. It begins with an abstract stating that risk management is key for successful construction projects. The introduction defines project risk and risk management, noting risks significantly impact construction projects in terms of cost, time and quality. The literature review then summarizes 15 research papers on various aspects of risk identification, analysis, response and management in construction projects. Key findings include that risk management knowledge and formal techniques are still lacking, risks are often perceived based on experience rather than analysis, and integrating risk management across project stakeholders is important for success.
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CFAR-m Differentiators
CFAR-m is an expert system that provides objective, unbiased rankings and clusterings based solely on the internal dynamics of complex data sets, without any external weighting or manipulation. It makes automatic rankings and proposes optimal reform plans and simulations. Key unique advantages include endogenously extracting weightings from data, capturing non-linear variable relationships, and providing each variable's contribution to rankings for better analysis. Competitors cannot match CFAR-m's full feature set for aggregation, ranking, and understanding complex data.
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CFAR-m Presentation English
The document describes using the CFAR-m algorithm to create a composite human development index. CFAR-m is an artificial intelligence technique that generates weights for individual indicators through machine learning rather than using subjective or equal weights. The example shows CFAR-m producing a human development index in 3 stages: classification of countries, generating unique weight vectors for each country, and calculating the composite index and rankings. The results demonstrate CFAR-m producing rankings that are generally consistent with traditional methods but provide country-specific weights and equations.
CFAR-m Outline
The document outlines a new method called CFAR for aggregating and ranking data from multiple variables. It aims to extract relevant information from large datasets in a way that overcomes limitations of traditional methods. CFAR proceeds in three stages: clustering items into homogeneous groups, determining appropriate weights for each item, and applying the weights to calculate a composite indicator and overall ranking. This objective weighting system considers the informational content and internal dynamics of the variables themselves, providing advantages over methods that smooth or simplify the data. The CFAR method has wide applications across economic, social, financial, medical and other fields.
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CFAR-m Unique Selling Proposition (USP)
- 1. Ranking is based on a novel technique which, unlike previous techniques, has the following unique features: • Objectivity: No manipulation of weights. The weighting is a resolutely clear objective since it emanates from the content information of the variables themselves and their internal dynamics. This last feature of the model is a major step forward and is a major improvement over current method in terms of ranking / aggregation. • Specificity: A specific equation calculates each individual indicator • Decision support: allows for the running of simulations and then proposes to decision makers’ plans of action and optimal sequence of reforms. Early user uptake of CFAR-m has focused on data relating to multilateral organizations rankings of countries by the aggregate level of governance, institutional quality, poverty and human development. The novelty of this approach and the relevance of the results have quickly attracted experts in the fields of governance and anti-corruption. With the World Bank Institute we have immediately run a diagnostic programme for the governance of Algeria in 2007. CFAR-m has been used in many research projects to build new composite indicators and integrate them into econometric models applied to the particular problems of governance and macroeconomic development of the financial system. Other typical ranking based applications CFAR-m can be used for is a unique tool for sensitivity analysis, the selection of relevant variables, the study of the interaction between the variables and their effects over time. These characteristics allow CFAR-m to engage in a whole realm of research and study into the modeling and simulation of complex phenomena. There are many fields of applications for CFAR-m such as: • Economics • Social Issues • Finance • Capital markets • Insurance • Medical • Pharmaceutical • Geo-strategic • Aerospace • Ecology • Research • Marketing, etc... www.cfar-m.com