1. Sean Norton, Dr. William Crowther
University of North Carolina at
Greensboro
Caught Between: The Transnistrian Separatist
Conflict in the Regional Context

2. Basic Context
 Transnistria : a separatist enclave in Moldova,
located along the border with Ukraine on the
banks of the Dniester river.
 Approximately 1/3rd each Russian, Moldovan, and
Ukrainian.
 Declared independence in 1990, a brief civil war
was fought which was ended by the involvement
of Russian forces.
 Remains unrecognized.

3. Source: Business Insider

4. Research Questions and
Methods
 How has the Ukraine crisis changed the context
surrounding Transnistria? Has the “thawing” of
conflict become more likely?
 Qualitative analysis of major and regional
newspaper articles from Russian and English
sources in the periods 1 year before and 1 year
after Euromaidan – 1st level analysis of most
relevant results.
 Reveals amount of attention directed towards the
conflict, an important first step in predicting its
future trajectory.

5. Historical Similarities – Transnistria
and Crimea/Eastern Ukraine
 Historically part of the Russian Empire
 High proportion of Russians and Russian-
speakers.
 Significantly less in Transnistria, but Russian-use
common and Cyrillic script used.
 Fears over language and ethnic rights –
Transnistrian fear of “Romanization”
 Split between pro-EU, western-oriented titular
populations and Russian-oriented minority
populations.
 Post-1990 history of Russian interference in
internal politics.

6. English Sources
 Year before Euromaidan: Only 38 mentions in
Western newspapers.
 Word tree analysis: Moldova and Transnistria mentioned
in reference to conflict resolution processes and border
issues.
 5 most used words are descriptive: Moldova,
Transnsnistria, Russia, region, state.
 Year after Euromaidan: 376 article mentions – 889%
increase.
 Word tree analysis: Transnistria mentioned along with
Russian-backing, Donetsk, other breakaway republics.
Moldova mentioned in reference to Russia, EU, and
Ukraine relations.
 5 most used words more action-oriented, related to

7. Russian Sources
 Year before Euromaidan: 405 mentions.
 Word tree analysis: Transnistria mentioned in
regards to Russia’s role in negotiations, relations
with Russia, potential/threat of EU and NATO
integration.
 Word frequency: Top 5 focus on
government/institutions and conflict: Transnistria,
Russia, Moldova, conflict, authority/authorities.
 Year after Euromaidan: 967 results (138%
increase).
 Word tree analysis: Transnistria characterized as
threatened by Ukraine and Moldova.
 Word frequency: similar, but Ukraine breaks into the

8. Preliminary conclusions and further
research
 Analysis shows that attention on Transnistria in
the EU, US, and Russia has increased as a result
of Euromaidan.
 Presentation of Transnistria different:
 US/EU: Transnistria as a worrisome region in
Moldova.
 Russia: Transnistria as a threatened Russian
minority region by Moldova/Ukraine relations with
EU and NATO.
 US/EU seems to think conflict could reoccur in
Transnistria, Russia sees Transnistria on the
edge of conflict.
 Further research will include: analysis of all
articles and Romanian language sources,

9. Thank you for your attention!
Questions?