Caselet / Scenario Russias War in Ukraine Is Taking a Toll on Africa Russias war in Ukraine has disrupted Africas promising recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic by raising food and fuel prices, disrupting trade of goods and services, tightening the fiscal space, constraining green transitions and reducing the flow of development finance on the continent, said United Nations Assistant SecretaryGeneral Ahunna Eziakonwa. Speaking at the US Institute of Peace on June 14, Eziakonwa, who serves as the UN Development Programmes assistant administrator and regional director for Africa, said the war has put households, communities and countries across Africa in a very precarious situation. Joseph Sany, vice president of the Africa Center at USIP, said: The critical question before us today is: How can African countries and their partners leverage their abundant resources and human capabilities to address the short-term impact of Russias invasion in Ukraine and advance their long-term development and security needs? In other words, he added, how can Africa make the best out of this very, very bad situation? The Pandemics Impact on Africa Prior to 2020, African countries were among the fastest growing in the world. The COVID-19 pandemic reversed decades of hard-won macroeconomic, socioeconomic and governance gains on the continent. For the first time in nearly three decades, Africas Human Development Index dropped. Millions of Africans lost their jobs and some 50 million were projected to be pushed into extreme poverty. Women and youth were hardest hit. Global trade disruptions constrained growth and many African countries suffered from a progressively shrinking fiscal space, said Eziakonwa. The pandemic worsened financial and societal inequalities in Africa, she added. In response to the pandemic, African countries put in place effective macroeconomic policies, made strategic investments and boosted COVID-19 vaccine production and rollout. While multilateralism appeared to be shrinking in the rest of the world, it was expanding in Africa, Eziakonwa said. By the end of 2021, Africa exceeded expectations of a 3.7 percent GDP growth, recording a 4.5 percent growth and showing its resilience and its muscle to bounce back, Eziakonwa said. The recovery was fragile but the continent appeared to be back on track toward attaining the UNs sustainable development goals, she added. On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked act of aggression. The aftershocks of the ongoing war are being felt around the world, including in Africa. War Disrupts Critical Imports While the level of trade, between the African continent as a whole and Russia and Ukraine, is insignificant, some African countries rely heavily on these two countries for critical imports, particularly wheat, fertilizers and steel. A disruption in these imports could adversely impact African countries. From left to right, USIP Director of West Africa programmes Oge Onubogu, USIP Senior Advisor Jo.

1. Caselet / Scenario Russias War in Ukraine Is Taking a Toll on Africa Russias war in Ukraine has
disrupted Africas promising recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic by raising food and fuel
prices, disrupting trade of goods and services, tightening the fiscal space, constraining green
transitions and reducing the flow of development finance on the continent, said United Nations
Assistant SecretaryGeneral Ahunna Eziakonwa. Speaking at the US Institute of Peace on June
14, Eziakonwa, who serves as the UN Development Programmes assistant administrator and
regional director for Africa, said the war has put households, communities and countries across
Africa in a very precarious situation. Joseph Sany, vice president of the Africa Center at USIP,
said: The critical question before us today is: How can African countries and their partners
leverage their abundant resources and human capabilities to address the short-term impact of
Russias invasion in Ukraine and advance their long-term development and security needs? In
other words, he added, how can Africa make the best out of this very, very bad situation? The
Pandemics Impact on Africa Prior to 2020, African countries were among the fastest growing in
the world. The COVID-19 pandemic reversed decades of hard-won macroeconomic,
socioeconomic and governance gains on the continent. For the first time in nearly three decades,
Africas Human Development Index dropped. Millions of Africans lost their jobs and some 50
million were projected to be pushed into extreme poverty. Women and youth were hardest hit.
Global trade disruptions constrained growth and many African countries suffered from a
progressively shrinking fiscal space, said Eziakonwa. The pandemic worsened financial and
societal inequalities in Africa, she added. In response to the pandemic, African countries put in
place effective macroeconomic policies, made strategic investments and boosted COVID-19
vaccine production and rollout. While multilateralism appeared to be shrinking in the rest of the
world, it was expanding in Africa, Eziakonwa said. By the end of 2021, Africa exceeded
expectations of a 3.7 percent GDP growth, recording a 4.5 percent growth and showing its
resilience and its muscle to bounce back, Eziakonwa said. The recovery was fragile but the
continent appeared to be back on track toward attaining the UNs sustainable development goals,
she added. On February 24, Russia invaded Ukraine in an unprovoked act of aggression. The
aftershocks of the ongoing war are being felt around the world, including in Africa. War Disrupts
Critical Imports While the level of trade, between the African continent as a whole and Russia
and Ukraine, is insignificant, some African countries rely heavily on these two countries for
critical imports, particularly wheat, fertilizers and steel. A disruption in these imports could
adversely impact African countries. From left to right, USIP Director of West Africa
programmes Oge Onubogu, USIP Senior Advisor Johnny Carson and UN Assistant Secretary-
General Ahunna Eziakonwa, discuss the impact of Russias war in Ukraine on African
economies. In 2021, for example, Kenya imported almost 30 percent of its wheat from Russia

2. and Ukraine. A supply disruption would affect the production of bread in Kenya, which
Eziakonwa noted is the third most consumed food item in that country. Cameroon imported 44
percent of its fertilizers from Russia in 2021. In West Africa, where planting season is starting,
analysts fear that this disruption could have a dire impact on crop yields and compromise food
security. And similarly, 60 percent of Ghanas iron ore and steel imports come from Ukraine. As
a result of the war, the construction industry in Ghana is likely to face significant challenges. An
estimated 4.8 million jobs have been lost in Ukraine since the start of the Russian aggression,
according to a new brief by the International Labour Organization (ILO). The study estimates
that if hostilities were to escalate employment losses would increase to seven million. However,
if the fighting was to cease immediately a rapid recovery would be possible, with the return of
3.4 million jobs. This would reduce employment losses to 8.9 per cent, according to the brief,
The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the world of work: Initial assessments. Government
Revenues Impacted A combination of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine has reduced trade
and taxation revenues of governments across Africa, even as countries are being forced to spend
on social safety nets. Countries are being asked to spend more with less coming in, said
Eziakonwa, adding that fiscal and monetary responses of sub-Saharan African countries
increased public indebtedness across Africa. Meanwhile, downgraded credit ratings have
increased borrowing costs for African countries. UNDP research shows that biased credit ratings
could be costing six African countries $13 billion in additional interest rate payments,
Eziakonwa said, adding: Africa is borrowing at a much higher cost than the rest of the world.
Eziakonwa said one of the most pernicious effects of the war in Ukraine is imported inflation.
She cited the examples of Tanzania, where overall inflation spiked by 34 percent between
February and April; Namibia, where transportation costs rose by 20 percent between March and
April; and Cameroon, where food prices increased by 26 percent between February and March.
Warning of a Cold War Redux The war in Ukraine is a clear and present danger to
multilateralism, Eziakonwa said. Indication of this can be found in the fact that development
projects are being postponed or cancelled as some development partners are put off by the higher
costs of projects while others are considering diverting funds to the humanitarian crisis caused by
the war in Europe. There are also signs of Africas development being defunded. Its not the time
to leave the continent behind, Eziakonwa said, adding that there needs to be a greater
understanding that the relationship with Africa is a partnership of purpose and not a relationship
of charity. Describing a turn toward a political lens through which to view development in Africa
as a worrying trend, Eziakonwa said: An unwelcome tendency towards unilateralism and a return
to Cold War dynamics would be devastating for Africa, and indeed for the world. She added: A
Cold War redux will certainly exacerbate the recent retreat of democratisation in parts of the
continent where we have witnessed disruptive and unconstitutional political transitions. It will

3. also be discouraging for countries that are trying to do the right thing, she said, while calling for
an investment in robust and meaningful multilateralism. She also suggested derisking Africas
investment ecosystem and proactively exploring the use of innovative financing mechanisms.
Impact on South Africa South Africas annual consumer price index inflation rate surged to a 13-
year high of 7.4 percent in June 2022, driven mainly by a rise in food and fuel prices. Fuel and
food prices soared globally due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict that disrupted commodity markets.
Food price inflation was exacerbated in South Africa by ongoing load shedding, or prolonged
power outages, that have increased costs along the supply chain. As a result, South Africas food
price inflation accelerated by 9.0 percent, the highest level since February 2017. The consumer
prices of grain-related and vegetable oils products are expected to rise in the coming months,
which will keep food inflation at relatively higher levels. To help curb the escalating inflation
rate, the South African Reserve Bank increased the interest rate by 0.75 percent, raising
borrowing costs to their highest level since March 2020. Question Discuss the role that
partnerships or strategic alliances with Russian suppliers could have played in minimising some
of the problems faced by Africa as a result of supply chain disruptions caused by the war. (10)