Case Study and Demand Management Forecasting for TCOM India Ltd.

1. Case Study on Demand Management and Forecasting
DEPT OF AGRIBUSINESS MANAGEMENT,
CENTRE FOR POST GRADUATE STUDIES,OUAT,BHUBANESWAR.
Submitted To:
Dr.S. Mohapatra
Submitted by:
Soumyashree Priyadarshi

2. PART-A
Organization Name : TCOM Company Limited.
Industry Name : TCOM India Ltd.
Product market : Automobiles, two wheelers, crafts, ships,
aerial bridges, handloom, machines and trains.
Competition Level : Highly competitive to homologous
market environment .
Consumer Class : All group of people .

3. Brand : TCOM
Price : Varies according to the demand .
Market Status : The company undertook a Rs.32-crore
expansion program, which was completed in March 1998. Its
technical and research center at Hyderabad was set up at a cost
of Rs 6 crore. The company has plans to invest an additional
Rs.15 crore in expansion. Acquisition of the Lohia’s stake in the
joint venture is in line with TCOM's approach the world over.
The group's acquisitions include MPB Corporation (now TCOM
Aerospace and Super Precision Bearings), Desford Steel Tubes
and Latrobe Steel Company (now Timken Latrobe Steel).
Product Mix : Automobiles, two wheelers, crafts, ships, aerial
bridges, handloom, machines and trains.

4. PART-B
Key Problem Area
1.Delivering omnichannel customer experience .
2.Competing against other manufacturers.
PART-C
Objective of the case study
1.To concentrate on it’s core competence.
2.Forecast the sales for the future year.
3.Grater control to encourage TCOM For bring new technology .

5. SOLUTIONS
• Assessment strategy-Made possible by universal
comprehensive assessment tools.
• Enabling meaningful use of data to inform decisions and
improve outcomes .
Evaluation/Feedback/Review
• Analysis and interpretation
• Findings and inferences
• Recommendations

6. MANAGEMENT TOOLS
• Segmentation of market based on geographies.
• Segmentation of market based on product type (balloons,
airships& hybrids).
• Segmentation of market based on propulsion system(unpowered
& powered).
• Monitoring the activities of competitors like Harris Corporation,
Israel Aerospace LTD.
• More use of Artificial Intelligence.

7. SWOT Analysis
Strength
• Operational resilience.
• Ability to recruit top talent.
• Highly skilled collaborators.
• High brand equity.
Weakness
• Ability to respond to the competition.
• No frontier risks strategy.
• High bargaining power of channel partners in Communications Services industry.
• Low market penetration in new markets.
• Workers concerns about automation.

8. Opportunity
• Loyalty marketing.
• Learning at scale.
• Low interest rates.
• Better consumer reach.
Threat
• Aging population Technology.
• Disruption because of hacks, piracy etc.
• Trade war between China and United States.

9. Vice President of the Company has to prepare a report for TCOM India that summarizes the findings,
forecasts and recommendations. He is planning to include the following .
a. A graph of the time series.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
January February March April May June July August Septmber October November December
Sales in Crores
2002 2003 2004 2005

10. b. An analysis of the seasonality of the data indicating the seasonal indices for every month with comments on
the low seasonality and high trend nature of the data.
Low Seasonality - From January to April
Progressing Seasonality –May to July
High Seasonality – August to December
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
January February March April May June July August Septmber October November December
2002 2003 2004 2005

11. c. Forecast sales from January to December for the next year.
January 27 34 39 38 42
February 28 39 47 49 51
March 36 43 49 61 67
April 49 57 48 58 52
May 38 56 59 64 70
June 48 59 67 69 71
July 56 64 69 73 75
August 62 67 78 86 89
Septmber 65 73 84 92 93
October 69 76 87 96 97
November 78 76 83 95 96
December 87 78 98 98 99
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

12. d. Assume that the January sales for the next year turns out to be 105
crores, Find out the Vice President’s forecast error. If the error is large
what factors can be contributed for the same. What should the vice
president do to reduce this error .
Ans: Forecast error is 63 crore this is because of predetermined inventory level ,
Economic condition, Budget allocation .
e. Recommendations about the schedule for updating the system as per
your above suggestions.
Ans : The company should focus on the LOW & PROGRESSING seasonality, so that they
can increase their profit & uniform sales around the year which can reduce the impact
of seasonality on sales .