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Energy, Utilities and Chemicals the way we see it
The Capgemini Smart
Meter Valuation Model
How to measure the value of implementing smart
meters for Distributed Network Operators
I Minimize network management costs
while maintaining the quality and
security of supply and service
I Promote Demand Response—
demand side management and easier
insertion of micro-generation.
Furthermore, the EU Directive on
Energy End-Use Efficiency and Energy
Services requires new solutions for
providing customers with accurate
data (e.g. bills based on real consumption,
information on consumption profiles,
historical data, etc.).
Historically, the compliance-based
industry in which utilities operate,
have not offered enough incentive for
consumers, regulators or, for that
matter, to utilities themselves to take
the difficult steps necessary for making
electrical energy markets operate
efficiently. So, it is no doubt that all
these ambitious political objectives
and regulations are “shaking up the
industry” and require radical changes
in utility infrastructures and
consumption (on both industrial and
residential levels).
Smart meters have the potential
to contribute towards the
political goals
Since the recent inception of electricity
deregulation and market driven
pricing around the world, government
In March 2007, the European Union
Ministers asked Member States to
commit to the recently developed
3x20 objectives by 2020 (reduce
energy consumption and Greenhouse
Gas (GHG) emissions, and increase
use of renewable energy sources). The
underlying assumption is, of course,
an improved security of energy (and
electricity) supplies as well as a
growing European economy with
sustained tertiary and industrial
employment.
Developments within the utility
industry and especially in electricity
infrastructures are considered as
imperative in the contribution towards
meeting the 3x20 EU objectives:
I Energy savings: Slow down electricity
growth (+2% CAGR for 2002-2005)
I GHG emissions: Electricity
generation produces 56% of CO2
emissions (ETS – 2006)
I Renewable energy sources: By 2020,
2/3rd
of new generation power will
rely on non-schedulable sources
(resulting in challenges regarding
existing network infrastructure).
In line with this, national regulators
generally want to:
I Improve the functioning of the
electricity market, in particular, in
the interest of consumers
There is an increasing pressure
on the Energy & Utility sector
throughout Europe in regards to
embracing, contributing
towards and meeting political
goals and visions.
1
Figure 1: Legal framework and main orientations of smart metering experience in
selected countries
Countries Legal framework
None (not
mandated by law)Sweden
Draft bill of
February 2006The Netherlands
Deliberation
292/06Italy
No specific
legislationGermany
No specific
legislationUnited Kingdom
Energy Action Plan
I & II
California
Directive (conversion
of meters)
Deployment plan
Energy conservation
responsibility plan
Ontario
Institution involved
Parliament
Ministry of Economy
AEEG (Regulator)
VDN (Association of
Electrical operators)
OFGEM
CPUC (Regulator)
Government
OEB (Regulator)
Parliament
Main orientation
June 03: monthly billing on basis of actual data
from July ‘09
DNOs to inform cust. of power outage & to indemnify them
Deployment to all cust. needs to complete prior to July ‘09
All LV customers will have smart meters incl. communi-
cation and connection to AMM on commercial option
Smart meters mandatory for all new electricity contracts
Directives for the installation of smart meters on the LV
electricity network
Smart metering working groups that created the eHZ
program
Business case demonstrating the absence of economically
viable solutions
All DNOs required to submit business cases
Financial aid for deployment
Goal is completion of a 20 mill. deployment prior to end 2012
Schedule for conversion of LV meters (2007-2010)
Deployment of 5 mill. meters prior to 2011
Creation of a smart meter entity to drive integration of the
smart meters and data collection systems
The Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model 2
Energy, Utilities and Chemicals the way we see it
regulators have been looking for ways
to match consumption with generation.
Traditional electrical meters only
measure total consumption, and as
such provide no information of when
the energy was consumed.
Smart meters, on the other hand, will
change this and provide new
opportunities which will improve the
way electricity is distributed and
consumed. A smart meter system
allows two-way communication
between the distributor, energy
suppliers, energy consumers, and the
energy meter.
When looking beyond the meter-to-
cash process, smart meters have the
potential to generate value for all
participants in the electrical energy
market (including generators, system
operators, DNOs, retailers, consumers
and governmental institutions).
This potential will be fully realized by
applying a wider strategic mindset to
smart meter programs, and
considering the investment as the
foundation of smart grid or intelligent
network initiatives.
All in all, the implementation of smart
meters has the potential to contribute
massively towards the EU 3x20
political objectives. However, even
though regulatory bodies often agree
on general objectives for smart
metering, there are no two similar
answers to incentives and legal
frameworks.
The question of who should pay
for smart meter investments is a
central theme in the debates
between governmental bodies,
market players, energy
associations and media
When governments realize that these
types of investments are elementary
for meeting political objectives and for
the functioning and security of the
future energy infrastructure, critical
decisions are sometimes made on a
legislative level which result in massive
impact on key stakeholders.
However, the discussion is not
straightforward, and the business case
is by no means trivial:
I The owners of the meters are
typically DNOs who are also its
natural investors, though other
beneficiaries of the smart meters
include generators, system operators,
consumers, retail companies and the
government
I The complexity is multiplied
because the potential value of the
smart meters is not necessarily being
paid back to the investor, but
unequally distributed between other
beneficiaries
I It is complex to measure the ROI,
include possible new meter
functionalities/potential benefits,
manage various data transmission
systems, integrate with existing
systems as well as maintain smart
meters
I In the traditional ownership model,
all the utility functions had a single
owner, and benefits that crossed
multiple business segments (e.g.
distribution, transmission, and
generation for electricity) could be paid
for by the single owner of the utility
I As the utility companies get partly
and fully unbundled retail and
distribution businesses, it becomes
unclear how the DNOs can justify
their investments in smart meters
I How much of the cost has to come
from internal savings? How much of
the cost is considered new capital or
new Operations and Maintenance
(O&M)? In the end, of course, the
customer will ultimately pay the cost
as they always do.
Unfortunately, the discussions about
who should pay often seem to boil
down to only one or two parties and
the potential costs and benefits they
face in the case of a smart meter roll out.
While it might be a necessary
discussion to have, it has its pitfalls
when limited to only few parties.
The first pitfall is that if one party is
going to pay the whole cost, they may
choose a cheaper variant with fewer
benefits for the whole value chain than
if everyone either shared the costs
together or the costs were allocated
such that the installing party got paid
directly by the customer for the added
value that they hopefully will
ultimately benefit from.
Figure 2: An example of how cost and benefits are varying between stakeholders
depending on where in the value chain they belong.
+ Control of
consumption
+ Pre-payment: unpaid bills
+ Peak smoothing, Sourcing+ Reduction of Technical Losses
+ Customer presence
not necessary
+ Reduction of NT losses+ Reduction of NT Losses
+ Service Customer,
Malfunctions
+ Customer Service, Part. Op.
+ Malfunctions and
recommissioning + Change of
supplier easier
+ Customer Service, Reading+ Particular operations
+ CO2
Operating
benefits
+ Network Optimisation+ Generation
Investments
avoided
- Operations IS
- Maintenance IS
- Concentrators, Communication
- Concentrators, Maintenance
- Operations, Services- Meters, Communication
- Operations IS- Meters, Maintenance
Operating costs
- Costs incurredCosts incurred
- Metering Information Systems
- Concentrators, Installation
- Concentrator, Equipment
- Meters, Customer Service
- Meters, Installation
- IS frontend- Meters, Equipment
Investments
Generation DNOs Energy suppliers Customers
3
The second pitfall is that if too much
cost savings are pushed on to the
installing party, they may choose to
stall the installation as long as possible
or may end up with an incomplete
system that does not really offer all the
benefits—i.e. the meters are installed
but the systems and staffing required
to support the operations may get
short changed.
On this type of stakeholder discussion
“shortlist,” DNOs are likely to be
found due to their natural or logical
network equipment ownership
position. These DNOs are often facing
challenges in defending themselves
against external pressures dictating
that the DNO alone should pay for the
entire smart meter investment.
A clear and transparent
business case is fundamental
for decision making and
maximizing value on the
investment
In a situation like this, where there are
disputes regarding the distribution of
costs and benefits and who should
pay, consensus-driven development of
a detailed business case becomes an
essential tool for clarification,
negotiation and decision-making.
In instances where a decision to roll
out smart meters has already been
made (e.g. through legislation), the
development of a detailed business
case can still add significant value, as it
will help the relevant stakeholders in
showing them how, where and when
to capitalize on the investment, both
in the short term and long term, and
thereby maximize its value.
Capgemini’s smart meter
business case approach
To match the challenges DNOs are
facing today, Capgemini has devised a
unique smart meter business case
approach. This approach leverages the
vast knowledge base that Capgemini
has developed from experience in
serving the business consulting,
information technology and
outsourcing needs of more than 75%
of the top 20 private and public
utilities in the world.
As the No. 1 consulting services
provider in the worldwide utilities
sector, and the No. 1 in the Western
European utilities market for IT
services, Capgemini paves the way
with its innovative approach that
covers:
1. Understanding of vision and
strategic context
2. Understanding of technical smart
meter setup
3. Business case setup
4. Quantification of costs and benefits
5. Business case calculation
6. Presentation to the decision
makers.
This approach is built on the
Capgemini business case framework,
the Smart Meter Valuation Model, as
well as Capgemini’s benchmark catalog
base that consists of experience
gathered from more than 30
international utilities running smart
meter installations.
Understand and translate the
strategic context into a set of
measurable goals
The Smart Meter Valuation Model will
provide the DNOs with answers to the
following questions:
I Why should we implement a smart
meter system?
I Can the investment be justified?
I What are the real benefits?
I How should the benefits be
prioritized?
I What are the costs to get the
benefits?
I How strong is the business case?
I What are the risk scenarios?
Success is based on a clear smart
meter vision that drives purpose,
performance, energy and commitment.
Having a powerful vision is key to
inspire action.
Without it, any business case will
dissolve into a list of confusing and
conflicting statements, leading in a
wrong direction or nowhere at all.
Executives must translate the DNO’s
vision into tangible goals. Building a
business case, and aligning individual
and team targets will create
commitment and ensure focus on the
achievement of smart meter objectives,
and ultimately the DNO’s vision.
Business cases need to be tailored to
the DNO’s situation—one size does not
fit all. The DNO’s current performance
dictates what the numbers should be,
and its appetite for change dictates the
scope of the project.
One needs to understand the DNO’s
business plans and strategy—i.e. what
are the strategic reasons for
implementing a smart meter system, as
opposed to the strategic implications
of doing nothing?
The DNO has to define and agree on
the business rationale for
implementing a smart meter system.
In doing so DNOs have to scope
hypotheses (assumptions on change
drivers, business issues and solution
directions) as a starting point.
Furthermore the DNOs must
formulate "Why the smart meter
program must be undertaken" in a
qualitative statement, and try to find
out about deeper and less visible
reasons for the program.
Capgemini has worked with a number
of DNOs around the world who have
installed smart meters and has
analyzed the value that has been
actually harvested in the real world.
Smart meters can have an impact on
more than 80 business areas, including
customer service handling, billing,
construction and capital expenses,
outage management, forecasting and
settlement, and vegetation
management.
The technological scope is
closely liked with the Return of
Investment
The benefit opportunities are fully
aligned with the technological
ambition and mindset.
The potential of a smart meter system
will be fully realized when applying a
The Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model 4
Energy, Utilities and Chemicals the way we see it
wider strategic mindset to smart meter
programs, by considering the
investment as the foundation of a
smart grid or intelligent network
initiative.
It is important to analyze the
technological roadmap to understand
that technology and Return on
Investment are closely aligned.
New possible meter functionalities
have related potential benefits in the
same way as various data transmission
systems and integration with existing
systems.
Following is an example that indicates
how the benefit areas are linked to the
technological setup, more specifically
the frequency of metering data.
Setting the functionality requirement
for smart meter systems is basically
about mapping the larger smart meter
vendors’ standard functionality to the
strategic intent of the DNO.
Following is a set of typical smart
meter functionality elements that the
DNO has to define when choosing the
technological requirements:
I Meter reading (frequency of load
curve)
I Data sampling (frequency of data
sampling)
I Advanced meter management
I Communication with external
devices
I Acquisition and storage
I Meter resolution
I Dual and multi-utility meters
I Displays
I Communication architecture
I Back-end integration
I Web access
I Need-to-have and future
functionalities
I Market messaging.
In the business case setup, the
DNO has to set the key basic
assumptions and delimitations
A business case is a financial
justification. Therefore, the financial
key player in the decision team should
agree with the setup and approach of
the business case. This person is the
financial owner (typically the CFO,
Financial Director or Controller).
The financial owner of the business
case has to agree on the financial
framework and parameters of the
business case, which includes:
I The business case approach (cash
flow based, before or after tax)
I The investment measure like
payback period, NPV and IRR
I Acceptable values or minimal
requirements for the selected
investment measures
I The evaluation period to take into
account.
I The cost of capital for discounting (it
is best to get the DNO’s point of view
on the cost of money, as calculating
the WACC is not straightforward)
I What to capitalize and how to
calculate stranded costs.
I The discounting interval (e.g. yearly,
quarterly, etc.) and what to use as
“period zero”
I The preferred presentation format for
the business case
I Agree on how to present benefits,
especially for sensitive benefits such
as labor cost reduction.
Furthermore, it is important to plan
how to manage the expectation that
non-financial benefits will also be part
of the business case. In addition, it is
critical to consider any policy issues
such as In-house versus outsourcing
and lease versus ownership.
Based on the business case setup—
including the technological
requirements—it should be possible to
set the basic key assumptions and
delimitations:
Examples of basic assumptions:
I The business case is made only from
the DNO’s perspective
I General infrastructure costs are
associated with DNOs’ activities as
well as shared services (including
billing services)
I The business case is calculated for a
scenario of 500,000 metering points
I It is based on a 3-level solution
architecture (including
concentrators)
I High population density (90% of
meters are placed in urban areas)
I Costs include installation,
maintenance and running costs
I Benefits include only running
benefits
I Costs and benefits period is 20 years
I Deployment period is 3 years
I The main investment is made during
the first 3 years
I Full costs and benefits are realized
after smart meters are installed.
Capgemini’s Smart Meter Valuation
Model includes a list of assumptions
that can be used as a framework for
identification and validation of a
DNO’s most typical cost and benefit
assumptions.
Figure 3: The value of meter data
ODS/
MDMS
Month (s)
Maintenance Planning
Design Standards
Rate Cases
Tariff Design
Long-Term Forecasting
IEEE Indices
Billing
Meter Reading
Simulation
GIS - Connectivity/Locations
Collections
Asset Loading
Wholesale Settlement
TOU Billing
Vegetation Management
Load Scheduling
Curtailment Planning
Automatic Shutoff
Dispatch
Theft
Real-Time Pricing
Closing Verification
RTO Forecasting
Service Verification
Power Quality
Asset Monitoring
Site/Line Status
Remote Disconnect
On Demand/Call Center
System Security
Outage
Restoration
System Protection
Week (s)
Day (s)
Hours
10s of
Minutes
Minutes
Seconds
Event
Manager
5
The Smart Meter Valuation Model is
based on recent smart meter business
case projects carried out by Capgemini
in US, France, Germany and Denmark.
The benefit logic is creating the
link between the costs, benefits
and components of the solution
Identifying and quantifying the cost
and benefits is the heart of developing
the business case. In this activity, the
benefits logic is developed and the
cost and benefit areas are identified
and quantified. The quantification is in
fact performed by the DNO’s own
staff. Capgemini’s task is to bring these
people in a position where they are
able to come up with numbers.
In order to develop a business case
with commitment to act from the
DNO, leadership involvement and
ownership is essential. This
collaboration is the real challenge of
smart meter business case
development.
Creating a benefit logic diagram
establishes the logical links between
cost, benefit areas and components of
the solution.
By analyzing the benefits logic, a
number of cost and benefit areas are
identified (typically between 10 and 15).
The key design principle is to look for
relative independency between the
benefit areas. “Independence” implies
that a benefit area can be implemented
without much interference from other
benefit areas. Benefit areas are
represented in the benefit logic as a
group of drivers.
These areas will be the point of focus
when developing the business case
because of their substantial financial
impact.
The DNO should agree on the benefit
and cost areas to make sure that the
focus is correct.
For each of the cost and benefit areas,
the DNO has to agree and provide
data for the underlying assumptions.
As illustrated by the benefit logic, the
final quantification of the financial
impact is calculated by summarizing
all the cost and benefit areas.
Many different consulting techniques
are used to assist the DNO in gaining
confidence in the numbers. These
techniques include workshops,
benchmarks, best practices, analysis,
desk research, simulation, reference
visits and interviews.
The financial model is
calculated in the Capgemini
Smart Meter Valuation Model
The Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation
Model contains the assumptions,
benefit and cost calculations and
analysis sheets. In this way, it contains
all assumptions, their effect on the
cash flows and their ultimate effect on
NPV, IRR and Payback Period.
Furthermore, the Capgemini Smart
Meter Valuation Model includes
sensitivity scenarios that can be
developed for three purposes:
1. To evaluate different solutions: A
scenario analysis can provide a
better insight into the economic
difference of the different solution
alternatives (Will the extra benefits
of a more powerful solution
outweigh the extra costs?). The
scenario analysis will help the
designers in taking design decisions
and crafting the smart meter
solution.
2. To evaluate different ways to
implement a smart meter solution:
A given smart meter solution can
be implemented in many different
ways; for instance, quick, with a lot
of disturbance and risks but with
early benefits, or slower, less risky,
but with the benefits accrued later.
A scenario analysis can bring in the
economic argument in this
consideration.
3. To perform risk analysis: Potential
risks are typically identified by the
DNO’s own staff in a workshop.
Scenario analysis can then be
applied to understand the
economic impact of the different
risks; for e.g. investment cost,
running cost and benefit risks.
4. Smart meter lifetime sensitivity:
A shorter lifetime period of smart
meters are reflected in a shorter
investment horizon and a
correspondingly shorter annuity
payment period. The impact of
different meter lifetime periods is
modeled in the business case.
Figure 4: Capgemini’s Smart Meter Valuation Model is built on a benefit logic
composed of cost and benefit elements that are typical for a European DNO
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Benefit elements
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Cost elements Result
Financial impact for DNO
Costs
Benefits
Investment costs
Running costs
Network Optimization and
Technical Losses
Call Centre
Field Service Management
Customer Meter Reading
Material costs
Installation costs
Installation training costs
Information system costs
Stranded cost of meters
Customer service costs
Maintenance costs
Data transfer costs
Running benefits
The result of the business case is
calculated per meter as well as on
a total project perspective
The results are displayed in
nominal as well as present
value of cash flows
Customer service costs
The Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model 6
Energy, Utilities and Chemicals the way we see it
The outcome of the analysis is fed
back to the design team, to ensure that
the solution is adjusted to mitigate the
risks.
The target group for the smart
meter business case is typically
the DNO’s management
The main purpose of a smart meter
business case is to support a decision
about whether or not to invest in a
smart meter solution, as well as how,
when and where to capitalize on the
investment.
This decision is typically taken by the
DNO’s management team, who will
also be the key audience for the final
presentation.
The smart meter business case
can also be used as more than
just a financial justification for
the DNO
This discussion has focused on the
business case from a DNO perspective
only. It has been used to describe how
a DNO can develop a smart meter
business case and thus identify the
costs and benefits related to the
investment. This gives the DNO a
good understanding of how to
maximize the value of the investment,
which is vital for the DNO both before
and after a decision to invest in smart
meters has been made.
The business case represents more
than just a financial justification; it is
an essential negotiation, decision-
making and communication tool
which will increase and enable
strategic understanding of a smart
meter investment.
In order to bring the smart meter
business case to a higher value level,
and increase the strategic dimension of
it even further, more stakeholders in
the utility value chain should be
included in the process.
This will mean that the actual
distribution of benefits throughout the
value chain will become more
transparent, and the costs might
therefore be easier to allocate fairly
between the stakeholders. In addition,
it might become easier to understand,
and more motivating to try to realize
the true strategic benefit potential of
an intelligent utility infrastructure.
There are examples of theoretical
smart grid business cases where
attempts are made to estimate the full
potential of intelligent infrastructures
(including, for example, long term
social benefits). These types of cases
currently exist on a theoretical level;
however, the more stakeholders one
can actively include and cooperate
with in developing a smart
meter/smart grid business case, the
better are the chances of realizing the
full potential of these technologies.
Figure 5: Examples of smart meter
sensitivity analysis
Investment Cost Sensitivity
Assumption
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
-240 -220 -200 -180 -160
Investment Cost per meter (€)
Benefit Sensitivity
Assumption-300
-200
-100
0
8 9 10 11 12
Benefits per meter (€)
Figure 6: Percentages based on real savings by implementing fully integrated smart
meter system
Generation Distribution Retail Customers SocietyTransmission
Standards and construction (15-20%)
Settlement (2-4%)
Billing (2-7%)
System control (4-11%)
Asset management (4-19%)
Tariffs and regulations (1-4%)
Outage and restoration (3-8%)
Vegetation management (3-7%)
Demand management (2-22%)
Load forecasting (9-14%)
Metering (2-4%)
Safety (2-5%)
Field service management (3-7%)
Collection and theft (15-25%)
www.capgemini.com/energy
For further information, please contact:
Capgemini, one of the
world’s foremost providers
of consulting, technology and
outsourcing services, enables its clients to
transform and perform through
technologies.
Capgemini provides its clients with
insights and capabilities that boost their
freedom to achieve superior results
through a unique way of working - the
Collaborative Business Experience® -
and through a global delivery model
called Rightshore®, which aims to offer
the right resources in the right location at
competitive cost. Present in 36 countries,
Capgemini reported 2007 global
revenues of EUR 8.7 billion and employs
over 86,000 people worldwide.
With 1.15 billion euros revenue in 2007
and 10,000+ dedicated consultants
engaged in Energy, Utilities and
Chemicals projects across Europe, North
America and Asia Pacific, Capgemini's
Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global
Sector serves the business consulting and
information technology needs of many of
the world’s largest players of this
industry.
More information about our services,
offices and research is available at
www.capgemini.com/energy
About Capgemini
Copyright © 2008 Capgemini. All rights reserved.
Gord Reynolds
Practice Leader
Smart Energy Services
gord.reynolds@capgemini.com
+1 416.732.2200

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Capgemini ses - smart meter valuation model (gr)

  • 1. Energy, Utilities and Chemicals the way we see it The Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model How to measure the value of implementing smart meters for Distributed Network Operators
  • 2. I Minimize network management costs while maintaining the quality and security of supply and service I Promote Demand Response— demand side management and easier insertion of micro-generation. Furthermore, the EU Directive on Energy End-Use Efficiency and Energy Services requires new solutions for providing customers with accurate data (e.g. bills based on real consumption, information on consumption profiles, historical data, etc.). Historically, the compliance-based industry in which utilities operate, have not offered enough incentive for consumers, regulators or, for that matter, to utilities themselves to take the difficult steps necessary for making electrical energy markets operate efficiently. So, it is no doubt that all these ambitious political objectives and regulations are “shaking up the industry” and require radical changes in utility infrastructures and consumption (on both industrial and residential levels). Smart meters have the potential to contribute towards the political goals Since the recent inception of electricity deregulation and market driven pricing around the world, government In March 2007, the European Union Ministers asked Member States to commit to the recently developed 3x20 objectives by 2020 (reduce energy consumption and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, and increase use of renewable energy sources). The underlying assumption is, of course, an improved security of energy (and electricity) supplies as well as a growing European economy with sustained tertiary and industrial employment. Developments within the utility industry and especially in electricity infrastructures are considered as imperative in the contribution towards meeting the 3x20 EU objectives: I Energy savings: Slow down electricity growth (+2% CAGR for 2002-2005) I GHG emissions: Electricity generation produces 56% of CO2 emissions (ETS – 2006) I Renewable energy sources: By 2020, 2/3rd of new generation power will rely on non-schedulable sources (resulting in challenges regarding existing network infrastructure). In line with this, national regulators generally want to: I Improve the functioning of the electricity market, in particular, in the interest of consumers There is an increasing pressure on the Energy & Utility sector throughout Europe in regards to embracing, contributing towards and meeting political goals and visions. 1 Figure 1: Legal framework and main orientations of smart metering experience in selected countries Countries Legal framework None (not mandated by law)Sweden Draft bill of February 2006The Netherlands Deliberation 292/06Italy No specific legislationGermany No specific legislationUnited Kingdom Energy Action Plan I & II California Directive (conversion of meters) Deployment plan Energy conservation responsibility plan Ontario Institution involved Parliament Ministry of Economy AEEG (Regulator) VDN (Association of Electrical operators) OFGEM CPUC (Regulator) Government OEB (Regulator) Parliament Main orientation June 03: monthly billing on basis of actual data from July ‘09 DNOs to inform cust. of power outage & to indemnify them Deployment to all cust. needs to complete prior to July ‘09 All LV customers will have smart meters incl. communi- cation and connection to AMM on commercial option Smart meters mandatory for all new electricity contracts Directives for the installation of smart meters on the LV electricity network Smart metering working groups that created the eHZ program Business case demonstrating the absence of economically viable solutions All DNOs required to submit business cases Financial aid for deployment Goal is completion of a 20 mill. deployment prior to end 2012 Schedule for conversion of LV meters (2007-2010) Deployment of 5 mill. meters prior to 2011 Creation of a smart meter entity to drive integration of the smart meters and data collection systems
  • 3. The Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model 2 Energy, Utilities and Chemicals the way we see it regulators have been looking for ways to match consumption with generation. Traditional electrical meters only measure total consumption, and as such provide no information of when the energy was consumed. Smart meters, on the other hand, will change this and provide new opportunities which will improve the way electricity is distributed and consumed. A smart meter system allows two-way communication between the distributor, energy suppliers, energy consumers, and the energy meter. When looking beyond the meter-to- cash process, smart meters have the potential to generate value for all participants in the electrical energy market (including generators, system operators, DNOs, retailers, consumers and governmental institutions). This potential will be fully realized by applying a wider strategic mindset to smart meter programs, and considering the investment as the foundation of smart grid or intelligent network initiatives. All in all, the implementation of smart meters has the potential to contribute massively towards the EU 3x20 political objectives. However, even though regulatory bodies often agree on general objectives for smart metering, there are no two similar answers to incentives and legal frameworks. The question of who should pay for smart meter investments is a central theme in the debates between governmental bodies, market players, energy associations and media When governments realize that these types of investments are elementary for meeting political objectives and for the functioning and security of the future energy infrastructure, critical decisions are sometimes made on a legislative level which result in massive impact on key stakeholders. However, the discussion is not straightforward, and the business case is by no means trivial: I The owners of the meters are typically DNOs who are also its natural investors, though other beneficiaries of the smart meters include generators, system operators, consumers, retail companies and the government I The complexity is multiplied because the potential value of the smart meters is not necessarily being paid back to the investor, but unequally distributed between other beneficiaries I It is complex to measure the ROI, include possible new meter functionalities/potential benefits, manage various data transmission systems, integrate with existing systems as well as maintain smart meters I In the traditional ownership model, all the utility functions had a single owner, and benefits that crossed multiple business segments (e.g. distribution, transmission, and generation for electricity) could be paid for by the single owner of the utility I As the utility companies get partly and fully unbundled retail and distribution businesses, it becomes unclear how the DNOs can justify their investments in smart meters I How much of the cost has to come from internal savings? How much of the cost is considered new capital or new Operations and Maintenance (O&M)? In the end, of course, the customer will ultimately pay the cost as they always do. Unfortunately, the discussions about who should pay often seem to boil down to only one or two parties and the potential costs and benefits they face in the case of a smart meter roll out. While it might be a necessary discussion to have, it has its pitfalls when limited to only few parties. The first pitfall is that if one party is going to pay the whole cost, they may choose a cheaper variant with fewer benefits for the whole value chain than if everyone either shared the costs together or the costs were allocated such that the installing party got paid directly by the customer for the added value that they hopefully will ultimately benefit from. Figure 2: An example of how cost and benefits are varying between stakeholders depending on where in the value chain they belong. + Control of consumption + Pre-payment: unpaid bills + Peak smoothing, Sourcing+ Reduction of Technical Losses + Customer presence not necessary + Reduction of NT losses+ Reduction of NT Losses + Service Customer, Malfunctions + Customer Service, Part. Op. + Malfunctions and recommissioning + Change of supplier easier + Customer Service, Reading+ Particular operations + CO2 Operating benefits + Network Optimisation+ Generation Investments avoided - Operations IS - Maintenance IS - Concentrators, Communication - Concentrators, Maintenance - Operations, Services- Meters, Communication - Operations IS- Meters, Maintenance Operating costs - Costs incurredCosts incurred - Metering Information Systems - Concentrators, Installation - Concentrator, Equipment - Meters, Customer Service - Meters, Installation - IS frontend- Meters, Equipment Investments Generation DNOs Energy suppliers Customers
  • 4. 3 The second pitfall is that if too much cost savings are pushed on to the installing party, they may choose to stall the installation as long as possible or may end up with an incomplete system that does not really offer all the benefits—i.e. the meters are installed but the systems and staffing required to support the operations may get short changed. On this type of stakeholder discussion “shortlist,” DNOs are likely to be found due to their natural or logical network equipment ownership position. These DNOs are often facing challenges in defending themselves against external pressures dictating that the DNO alone should pay for the entire smart meter investment. A clear and transparent business case is fundamental for decision making and maximizing value on the investment In a situation like this, where there are disputes regarding the distribution of costs and benefits and who should pay, consensus-driven development of a detailed business case becomes an essential tool for clarification, negotiation and decision-making. In instances where a decision to roll out smart meters has already been made (e.g. through legislation), the development of a detailed business case can still add significant value, as it will help the relevant stakeholders in showing them how, where and when to capitalize on the investment, both in the short term and long term, and thereby maximize its value. Capgemini’s smart meter business case approach To match the challenges DNOs are facing today, Capgemini has devised a unique smart meter business case approach. This approach leverages the vast knowledge base that Capgemini has developed from experience in serving the business consulting, information technology and outsourcing needs of more than 75% of the top 20 private and public utilities in the world. As the No. 1 consulting services provider in the worldwide utilities sector, and the No. 1 in the Western European utilities market for IT services, Capgemini paves the way with its innovative approach that covers: 1. Understanding of vision and strategic context 2. Understanding of technical smart meter setup 3. Business case setup 4. Quantification of costs and benefits 5. Business case calculation 6. Presentation to the decision makers. This approach is built on the Capgemini business case framework, the Smart Meter Valuation Model, as well as Capgemini’s benchmark catalog base that consists of experience gathered from more than 30 international utilities running smart meter installations. Understand and translate the strategic context into a set of measurable goals The Smart Meter Valuation Model will provide the DNOs with answers to the following questions: I Why should we implement a smart meter system? I Can the investment be justified? I What are the real benefits? I How should the benefits be prioritized? I What are the costs to get the benefits? I How strong is the business case? I What are the risk scenarios? Success is based on a clear smart meter vision that drives purpose, performance, energy and commitment. Having a powerful vision is key to inspire action. Without it, any business case will dissolve into a list of confusing and conflicting statements, leading in a wrong direction or nowhere at all. Executives must translate the DNO’s vision into tangible goals. Building a business case, and aligning individual and team targets will create commitment and ensure focus on the achievement of smart meter objectives, and ultimately the DNO’s vision. Business cases need to be tailored to the DNO’s situation—one size does not fit all. The DNO’s current performance dictates what the numbers should be, and its appetite for change dictates the scope of the project. One needs to understand the DNO’s business plans and strategy—i.e. what are the strategic reasons for implementing a smart meter system, as opposed to the strategic implications of doing nothing? The DNO has to define and agree on the business rationale for implementing a smart meter system. In doing so DNOs have to scope hypotheses (assumptions on change drivers, business issues and solution directions) as a starting point. Furthermore the DNOs must formulate "Why the smart meter program must be undertaken" in a qualitative statement, and try to find out about deeper and less visible reasons for the program. Capgemini has worked with a number of DNOs around the world who have installed smart meters and has analyzed the value that has been actually harvested in the real world. Smart meters can have an impact on more than 80 business areas, including customer service handling, billing, construction and capital expenses, outage management, forecasting and settlement, and vegetation management. The technological scope is closely liked with the Return of Investment The benefit opportunities are fully aligned with the technological ambition and mindset. The potential of a smart meter system will be fully realized when applying a
  • 5. The Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model 4 Energy, Utilities and Chemicals the way we see it wider strategic mindset to smart meter programs, by considering the investment as the foundation of a smart grid or intelligent network initiative. It is important to analyze the technological roadmap to understand that technology and Return on Investment are closely aligned. New possible meter functionalities have related potential benefits in the same way as various data transmission systems and integration with existing systems. Following is an example that indicates how the benefit areas are linked to the technological setup, more specifically the frequency of metering data. Setting the functionality requirement for smart meter systems is basically about mapping the larger smart meter vendors’ standard functionality to the strategic intent of the DNO. Following is a set of typical smart meter functionality elements that the DNO has to define when choosing the technological requirements: I Meter reading (frequency of load curve) I Data sampling (frequency of data sampling) I Advanced meter management I Communication with external devices I Acquisition and storage I Meter resolution I Dual and multi-utility meters I Displays I Communication architecture I Back-end integration I Web access I Need-to-have and future functionalities I Market messaging. In the business case setup, the DNO has to set the key basic assumptions and delimitations A business case is a financial justification. Therefore, the financial key player in the decision team should agree with the setup and approach of the business case. This person is the financial owner (typically the CFO, Financial Director or Controller). The financial owner of the business case has to agree on the financial framework and parameters of the business case, which includes: I The business case approach (cash flow based, before or after tax) I The investment measure like payback period, NPV and IRR I Acceptable values or minimal requirements for the selected investment measures I The evaluation period to take into account. I The cost of capital for discounting (it is best to get the DNO’s point of view on the cost of money, as calculating the WACC is not straightforward) I What to capitalize and how to calculate stranded costs. I The discounting interval (e.g. yearly, quarterly, etc.) and what to use as “period zero” I The preferred presentation format for the business case I Agree on how to present benefits, especially for sensitive benefits such as labor cost reduction. Furthermore, it is important to plan how to manage the expectation that non-financial benefits will also be part of the business case. In addition, it is critical to consider any policy issues such as In-house versus outsourcing and lease versus ownership. Based on the business case setup— including the technological requirements—it should be possible to set the basic key assumptions and delimitations: Examples of basic assumptions: I The business case is made only from the DNO’s perspective I General infrastructure costs are associated with DNOs’ activities as well as shared services (including billing services) I The business case is calculated for a scenario of 500,000 metering points I It is based on a 3-level solution architecture (including concentrators) I High population density (90% of meters are placed in urban areas) I Costs include installation, maintenance and running costs I Benefits include only running benefits I Costs and benefits period is 20 years I Deployment period is 3 years I The main investment is made during the first 3 years I Full costs and benefits are realized after smart meters are installed. Capgemini’s Smart Meter Valuation Model includes a list of assumptions that can be used as a framework for identification and validation of a DNO’s most typical cost and benefit assumptions. Figure 3: The value of meter data ODS/ MDMS Month (s) Maintenance Planning Design Standards Rate Cases Tariff Design Long-Term Forecasting IEEE Indices Billing Meter Reading Simulation GIS - Connectivity/Locations Collections Asset Loading Wholesale Settlement TOU Billing Vegetation Management Load Scheduling Curtailment Planning Automatic Shutoff Dispatch Theft Real-Time Pricing Closing Verification RTO Forecasting Service Verification Power Quality Asset Monitoring Site/Line Status Remote Disconnect On Demand/Call Center System Security Outage Restoration System Protection Week (s) Day (s) Hours 10s of Minutes Minutes Seconds Event Manager
  • 6. 5 The Smart Meter Valuation Model is based on recent smart meter business case projects carried out by Capgemini in US, France, Germany and Denmark. The benefit logic is creating the link between the costs, benefits and components of the solution Identifying and quantifying the cost and benefits is the heart of developing the business case. In this activity, the benefits logic is developed and the cost and benefit areas are identified and quantified. The quantification is in fact performed by the DNO’s own staff. Capgemini’s task is to bring these people in a position where they are able to come up with numbers. In order to develop a business case with commitment to act from the DNO, leadership involvement and ownership is essential. This collaboration is the real challenge of smart meter business case development. Creating a benefit logic diagram establishes the logical links between cost, benefit areas and components of the solution. By analyzing the benefits logic, a number of cost and benefit areas are identified (typically between 10 and 15). The key design principle is to look for relative independency between the benefit areas. “Independence” implies that a benefit area can be implemented without much interference from other benefit areas. Benefit areas are represented in the benefit logic as a group of drivers. These areas will be the point of focus when developing the business case because of their substantial financial impact. The DNO should agree on the benefit and cost areas to make sure that the focus is correct. For each of the cost and benefit areas, the DNO has to agree and provide data for the underlying assumptions. As illustrated by the benefit logic, the final quantification of the financial impact is calculated by summarizing all the cost and benefit areas. Many different consulting techniques are used to assist the DNO in gaining confidence in the numbers. These techniques include workshops, benchmarks, best practices, analysis, desk research, simulation, reference visits and interviews. The financial model is calculated in the Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model The Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model contains the assumptions, benefit and cost calculations and analysis sheets. In this way, it contains all assumptions, their effect on the cash flows and their ultimate effect on NPV, IRR and Payback Period. Furthermore, the Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model includes sensitivity scenarios that can be developed for three purposes: 1. To evaluate different solutions: A scenario analysis can provide a better insight into the economic difference of the different solution alternatives (Will the extra benefits of a more powerful solution outweigh the extra costs?). The scenario analysis will help the designers in taking design decisions and crafting the smart meter solution. 2. To evaluate different ways to implement a smart meter solution: A given smart meter solution can be implemented in many different ways; for instance, quick, with a lot of disturbance and risks but with early benefits, or slower, less risky, but with the benefits accrued later. A scenario analysis can bring in the economic argument in this consideration. 3. To perform risk analysis: Potential risks are typically identified by the DNO’s own staff in a workshop. Scenario analysis can then be applied to understand the economic impact of the different risks; for e.g. investment cost, running cost and benefit risks. 4. Smart meter lifetime sensitivity: A shorter lifetime period of smart meters are reflected in a shorter investment horizon and a correspondingly shorter annuity payment period. The impact of different meter lifetime periods is modeled in the business case. Figure 4: Capgemini’s Smart Meter Valuation Model is built on a benefit logic composed of cost and benefit elements that are typical for a European DNO QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Benefit elements QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. Cost elements Result Financial impact for DNO Costs Benefits Investment costs Running costs Network Optimization and Technical Losses Call Centre Field Service Management Customer Meter Reading Material costs Installation costs Installation training costs Information system costs Stranded cost of meters Customer service costs Maintenance costs Data transfer costs Running benefits The result of the business case is calculated per meter as well as on a total project perspective The results are displayed in nominal as well as present value of cash flows Customer service costs
  • 7. The Capgemini Smart Meter Valuation Model 6 Energy, Utilities and Chemicals the way we see it The outcome of the analysis is fed back to the design team, to ensure that the solution is adjusted to mitigate the risks. The target group for the smart meter business case is typically the DNO’s management The main purpose of a smart meter business case is to support a decision about whether or not to invest in a smart meter solution, as well as how, when and where to capitalize on the investment. This decision is typically taken by the DNO’s management team, who will also be the key audience for the final presentation. The smart meter business case can also be used as more than just a financial justification for the DNO This discussion has focused on the business case from a DNO perspective only. It has been used to describe how a DNO can develop a smart meter business case and thus identify the costs and benefits related to the investment. This gives the DNO a good understanding of how to maximize the value of the investment, which is vital for the DNO both before and after a decision to invest in smart meters has been made. The business case represents more than just a financial justification; it is an essential negotiation, decision- making and communication tool which will increase and enable strategic understanding of a smart meter investment. In order to bring the smart meter business case to a higher value level, and increase the strategic dimension of it even further, more stakeholders in the utility value chain should be included in the process. This will mean that the actual distribution of benefits throughout the value chain will become more transparent, and the costs might therefore be easier to allocate fairly between the stakeholders. In addition, it might become easier to understand, and more motivating to try to realize the true strategic benefit potential of an intelligent utility infrastructure. There are examples of theoretical smart grid business cases where attempts are made to estimate the full potential of intelligent infrastructures (including, for example, long term social benefits). These types of cases currently exist on a theoretical level; however, the more stakeholders one can actively include and cooperate with in developing a smart meter/smart grid business case, the better are the chances of realizing the full potential of these technologies. Figure 5: Examples of smart meter sensitivity analysis Investment Cost Sensitivity Assumption -400 -300 -200 -100 0 -240 -220 -200 -180 -160 Investment Cost per meter (€) Benefit Sensitivity Assumption-300 -200 -100 0 8 9 10 11 12 Benefits per meter (€) Figure 6: Percentages based on real savings by implementing fully integrated smart meter system Generation Distribution Retail Customers SocietyTransmission Standards and construction (15-20%) Settlement (2-4%) Billing (2-7%) System control (4-11%) Asset management (4-19%) Tariffs and regulations (1-4%) Outage and restoration (3-8%) Vegetation management (3-7%) Demand management (2-22%) Load forecasting (9-14%) Metering (2-4%) Safety (2-5%) Field service management (3-7%) Collection and theft (15-25%)
  • 8. www.capgemini.com/energy For further information, please contact: Capgemini, one of the world’s foremost providers of consulting, technology and outsourcing services, enables its clients to transform and perform through technologies. Capgemini provides its clients with insights and capabilities that boost their freedom to achieve superior results through a unique way of working - the Collaborative Business Experience® - and through a global delivery model called Rightshore®, which aims to offer the right resources in the right location at competitive cost. Present in 36 countries, Capgemini reported 2007 global revenues of EUR 8.7 billion and employs over 86,000 people worldwide. With 1.15 billion euros revenue in 2007 and 10,000+ dedicated consultants engaged in Energy, Utilities and Chemicals projects across Europe, North America and Asia Pacific, Capgemini's Energy, Utilities & Chemicals Global Sector serves the business consulting and information technology needs of many of the world’s largest players of this industry. More information about our services, offices and research is available at www.capgemini.com/energy About Capgemini Copyright © 2008 Capgemini. All rights reserved. Gord Reynolds Practice Leader Smart Energy Services gord.reynolds@capgemini.com +1 416.732.2200