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Capacity Managementand the Cloud
- 1. Danny Quilton, COO, Capacitas Capacity Management and the Cloud
- 2. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud With the advent of cloud computing is capacity management still required? © Capacitas 2002-2012 2
- 3. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Capacity planning no longer required? When the Associated Press (AP) wanted the flexibility for application hosting and cloud data storage in the cloud, they turned to the Windows Azure platform from Microsoft. "Capacity planning is the thing that stands out as the biggest advantage of the Microsoft cloud model. The Windows Azure platform takes that out of the equation for us, unlike the other cloud providers." - Jonathan Malek, Chief Architect and Director of Research, Associated Press See how Windows Azure helped the AP develop a new global API through easy scalability that removed the need for costly and time-consuming capacity planning. Microsoft.com © Capacitas 2002-2012 3
- 4. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Agenda • Capacity management defined • Flawed assumptions • Case studies • Summary © Capacitas 2002-2012 4
- 5. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud What is Capacity and Performance Management? Supply Demand ICT Business capacity demand © Capacitas 2002-2012 5
- 6. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud What is Capacity and Performance Management? Level of Cost Service Operational cost Service response of ICT time Business Capital cost of ICT throughput Third-party provider Service availability operational costs © Capacitas 2002-2012 6
- 7. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud A Risk-based Approach High level of Long lead times service associated with demanded by capacity the business upgrades Highly Extraordinary competitive business peaks market Requirement to Significant manage ICT business growth costs Capacity High likelihood Business-critical service Management of a merger or is required acquisition © Capacitas 2002-2012 7
- 8. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Flawed Assumptions Capacity can be Capacity planning Cloud capacity is turned up discipline is no cheap instantaneously longer required Bottlenecks can Capacity Performance is be alleviated by management can guaranteed by the expanding cloud be delegated to cloud provider capacity the cloud provider © Capacitas 2002-2012 8
- 9. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Capacity can be turned up instantly? Public Cloud Private Cloud Our experience is that Cloud instance may be this is of the order of brought up rapidly weeks © Capacitas 2002-2012 9
- 10. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Capacity planning discipline is no longer required? How many servers? How much will it cost? Physical Cloud Time Time Demand Waste Capacity Demand Waste Capacity © Capacitas 2002-2012 10
- 11. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud The key questions How many servers? Physical • Understand the application • Model future user demand • Model utilisation • Understand acceptable utilisation thresholds • Plan how many servers to buy and when Time Demand Waste Capacity © Capacitas 2002-2012 11
- 12. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud The key questions How much will it cost? Cloud • Understand the application • Model future user demand • Model utilisation • Understand acceptable utilisation thresholds • Plan how much to spend and when Time Demand Waste Capacity © Capacitas 2002-2012 12
- 13. service service • Variable demand: • What will look like? ecommerce • Consider an • Promotions • Seasonality future demand itSMF UK Conference 2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Daily Purchases 26/03/2004 26/04/2004 26/05/2004 26/06/2004 26/07/2004 26/08/2004 26/09/2004 26/10/2004 26/11/2004 26/12/2004 26/01/2005 26/02/2005 26/03/2005 26/04/2005 26/05/2005 26/06/2005 26/07/2005 26/08/2005 26/09/2005 26/10/2005 26/11/2005 26/12/2005 © Capacitas 2002-2012 26/01/2006 Actual Daily Purchases 26/02/2006 26/03/2006 26/04/2006 26/05/2006 26/06/2006 26/07/2006 26/08/2006 26/09/2006 26/10/2006 Trend 180day 26/11/2006 26/12/2006 26/01/2007 26/02/2007 26/03/2007 26/04/2007 26/05/2007 26/06/2007 26/07/2007 26/08/2007 26/09/2007 26/10/2007 26/11/2007 Linear (Trend 180day) Historical Service Demand for an e-commerce Service 26/12/2007 26/01/2008 26/02/2008 26/03/2008 26/04/2008 26/05/2008 26/06/2008 26/07/2008 26/08/2008 26/09/2008 26/10/2008 R² = 0.9436 26/11/2008 Capacity planning discipline is no longer required? 26/12/2008 y = 12.088x - 436266 26/01/2009 26/02/2009 26/03/2009 26/04/2009 26/05/2009 26/06/2009 13
- 14. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Capacity planning discipline is no longer required? Forecast Service Demand for an e-commerce Service 01/01/2006 01/04/2006 01/07/2006 01/04/2007 01/07/2007 01/04/2008 01/07/2008 01/04/2009 01/07/2009 01/07/2010 01/07/2011 01/10/2006 01/01/2007 01/10/2007 01/01/2008 01/10/2008 01/01/2009 01/10/2009 01/01/2010 01/04/2010 01/10/2010 01/01/2011 01/04/2011 01/10/2011 01/01/2012 Actual Daily Purchases Forecast Daily Purchases • Demand planning must still be undertaken © Capacitas 2002-2012 14
- 15. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Capacity planning discipline is no longer required? Tuned • Still require application • Performance testing • Performance tuning Server Server • Otherwise we have proliferation of capacity in the instance instance cloud 1 2 • Here we have a 3-fold increase in opex Non-tuned application Server Server Server Server Server Server instance instance instance instance instance instance 1 2 3 4 5 6 © Capacitas 2002-2012 15
- 16. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case Study 1: Cloud Capacity is Cheap? • E-commerce service on owned, physical infrastructure • Proof of concept to assess capacity required on a private cloud Processing Capacity Number of per Instance Instances Owned infrastructure 8-core 32 Private Cloud Proposal A 4-core ? Private Cloud Proposal B 8-core ? © Capacitas 2002-2012 16
- 17. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case Study 1: Cloud Capacity is Cheap? • Testing carried out to established the relative capacity of current and proposed architecture • Tests against key transactions in the e-commerce application CPU processing time per key Number of transaction (relative to owned Instances infrastructure; per core) Required Owned infrastructure 1.0 32 Private Cloud Proposal A 1.4 90 Private Cloud Proposal B 2.0 64 • Profound implications for the business case © Capacitas 2002-2012 17
- 18. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case study 2: Capacity Planning in the Cloud • A travel e-commerce service • A mobile site to provide a better travel information during periods of disruption • This site was to be hosted as a cloud-based service • The demand on the mobile site would start off low and grow to unknown levels © Capacitas 2002-2012 18
- 19. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Performance Testing To ensure that • User response times will be within Find/Fix performance SLAs Code Defects • System will provide value for money within budgets Determine and Optimise Response Times Determine and Optimise Costs © Capacitas 2002-2012 19
- 20. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Step 1: Finding Code Defects • Before response times and costs can be measured, defects introducing non-linearity must be found and fixed • Memory leaks; logical bottlenecks; locking © Capacitas 2002-2012 20
- 21. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Step 2: Determining Response Time • Test response times as experienced by the user Average Before fix • Are times Average After fix 1 Average After fix 2 within Average SLA SLAs? © Capacitas 2002-2012 21
- 22. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Step 3: Cost Optimisation • We have resolved code defects • The service now meets response time SLA • We can go live, right? • No! Service performance should be tuned to achieve cost optimality © Capacitas 2002-2012 22
- 23. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Step 3: Cost Optimisation • Pre-optimisation Capacity of the service Number of instances (User visits per second per required instance) (to support 40 visits per second) Pre-optimisation 2 20 • Post-optimisation Capacity of the service Number of instances (User visits per second per required instance) (to support 40 visits per second) Post-optimisation 50 1 © Capacitas 2002-2012 23
- 24. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Step 3: Cost Optimisation Pre-optimisation Post-optimisation © Capacitas 2002-2012 24
- 25. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Bottlenecks can be alleviated by expanding cloud capacity? • Our experience is that most bottlenecks relate to logical rather than physical capacity constraints CPU Physical Capacity Memory Disk space Disk I/O Network bandwidth Allocated size of a database table Logical Capacity Capacity of a third-party’s web service The number of threads The number of database locks Free connections in a connection pool © Capacitas 2002-2012 25
- 26. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Bottlenecks can be alleviated by expanding cloud capacity? • Here there is a logical capacity constraint with regard a database table’s allocated space Web server instance Web server instance Web server instance Database instance Allocated space to database table • Increasing web or database instances capacity will not address the root cause © Capacitas 2002-2012 26
- 27. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Capacity management can be delegated to the cloud provider? • Planning must be Forecast Service Demand for an e-commerce Service undertaken to forecast peak demand and size accordingly • Requires business knowledge • Requires specific skills • Potential conflict of interest! 01/01/2006 01/04/2006 01/07/2006 01/04/2007 01/07/2007 01/04/2008 01/07/2008 01/04/2009 01/07/2009 01/07/2010 01/07/2011 01/10/2006 01/01/2007 01/10/2007 01/01/2008 01/10/2008 01/01/2009 01/10/2009 01/01/2010 01/04/2010 01/10/2010 01/01/2011 01/04/2011 01/10/2011 01/01/2012 Actual Daily Purchases Forecast Daily Purchases © Capacitas 2002-2012 27
- 28. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case Study 3: Capacity management can be delegated to the cloud provider? • A retailer • E-commerce service • Migrated the service from own infrastructure to a cloud service • The number of processor cores in the cloud was the same as the number of processor cores on the previous infrastructure • Service performance degraded post migration © Capacitas 2002-2012 28
- 29. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case Study 3: Capacity management can be delegated to the cloud provider? • No issues reported by service provider • CPU loading measured at the guest • Other than 1 server CPU loading was within acceptable bounds! © Capacitas 2002-2012 29
- 30. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case Study 3: Capacity management can be delegated to the cloud provider? • However evidence of high CPU queue lengths and service performance degradation • Insufficient processor capacity configured on the host machines © Capacitas 2002-2012 30
- 31. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case Study 4: Capacity management can be delegated to the cloud provider? • e-commerce travel • Cloud database on Microsoft Azure • Service went live with a 5 GB database • Low growth expected • Post go-live the database was growing at 2.1 GB per day • Forecast growth of 767 GB over the first year • SQL Azure databases instances limited to 150 GB • So forecast capacity requirement of 6 databases, each 130 GB in size © Capacitas 2002-2012 31
- 32. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case Study 4: Cost Implications Current capacity Forecast capacity © Capacitas 2002-2012 32
- 33. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case Study 4: Capacity management can be delegated to the cloud provider? • Investigation demonstrated that the growth of 2.1 GB per day was due to: 1. Poor archiving 2. ‘Scrapers’ searching for invalid route combinations, resulting in large numbers of database inserts © Capacitas 2002-2012 33
- 34. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Case Study 5: Remediation of Performance Issues • Application hosted in the Microsoft Azure cloud (web app and database) • Performance testing proved a response time degradation • Web tier OK • It was not possible to launch any performance tools/diagnostics against the database service • Extremely difficult to establish root cause! © Capacitas 2002-2012 34
- 35. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Performance is Guaranteed by the Cloud Provider? • Extract from the Amazon EC2 SLA • End to end performance is not guaranteed © Capacitas 2002-2012 35
- 36. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Performance is Guaranteed? • Counter-argument is to ‘design for failure’ • Automatically detect capacity constraints • Automatically detect unhealthy instances • Then automatically bring up new instances • Risk that instance proliferation can adversely impact system-wide performance • However end to end performance is still not guaranteed © Capacitas 2002-2012 36
- 37. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Comparing Performance of Cloud Service Providers © Capacitas 2002-2012 37
- 38. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Summary • Clear benefits of cloud computing • However capacity management is still required • Capacity management is key to managing the cost of a cloud services © Capacitas 2002-2012 38
- 39. itSMF UK Conference2012 Capacity Management and the Cloud Questions? www.capacitas.co.uk dannyquilton@capacitas.co.uk © Capacitas 2002-2012 39