The document analyzes Republican and Democratic candidates' performances on Facebook for upcoming 2010 US Senate and Congressional elections. It finds that Republican candidates have significantly more Facebook supporters than Democrats. It then examines key races and predicts election outcomes based on the Facebook supporter numbers, finding that Republicans are poised to win Senate races in Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Washington, as well as many Congressional races. Some primaries are also predicted based on Facebook supporters.

1. Who’s winning the Elections on Facebook: Key U.S. Senatorial and Congressional Races A Study by www.ElectionArena.com September 13, 2010

3. Can Facebook pages predict the election results?

5. U.S. Congressional Elections - Supporters on Facebook Overall, U.S. Congressional Republican Candidates are also doing better than Democrats on Facebook - Republicans hold 63% of Total Direct Supporters for Major Party U.S. Congressional Races on Facebook* Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 * Included only the “99 Seats in Play” according to the NY Times website Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

6. Notable U.S. Senatorial Races Predictions

7. Notable U.S. Congressional Races Predictions

8. Notable U.S. Congressional Races Predictions – Cont’ Is it only good campaigning on Facebook by Republicans, or are we going to see surprises In November?

9. U.S. Congressional Primaries Predictions

10. U.S. Senatorial Primaries Predictions Luckily, for these we only need to wait a few more days

11. Key U.S. Senatorial Races - Details

12. U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Florida - Marco Rubio is poised to win the Elections with more than 5 times as many Facebook supporters as Kendrick Meek’s Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

13. U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Nevada - Sharron Angle is poised to win the Elections with more than 5 times as many Facebook supporters as Harry Reid’s Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

14. U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Ohio - Rob Portman is poised to win the Elections with nearly 3 times as many Facebook supporters as Lee Fisher’s Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

15. U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Washington - Dino Rossi is poised to win the Elections with more than twice as many Facebook supporters as Patty Murray’s Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

16. U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Wisconsin - Seems like Ron Johnson will win the GOP primaries - Russ Feingold is poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

17. U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Delaware - Seems like Christine O’Donnell will win the GOP primaries - She is also poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

18. U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: New Hampshire - Seems like Bill Binnie will win the GOP primaries - He is also poised to win the Elections 28% 12% 6% Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

19. U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: New York - Seems like Gary Berntsen will win the GOP primaries - Chuck Schumer is poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

20. U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Maryland - Seems like Barbara Mikulski will win the Democratic primaries. A close call between Eric Wargotz and James Rutledge on the GOP primaries. - Barbara Mikulski is poised to win the Elections 13% Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

21. U.S. Senate Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Hawaii - Seems like Daniel Inouye and Cam Cavasso will win the Democratic and GOP primaries - Daniel Inouye is poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

22. U.S. Senate Elections - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Other notable races % of Total Direct Supporters for Race on Facebook 50% Illinois 50% 45% Pennsylvania 55% 47% Missouri 53% 49% Colorado 51% 68% Iowa 32% Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

23. Key U.S. Congressional Races - Details

40. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Wisconsin 7 CD - Seems like Sean Duffy and Julie Lassa will win the GOP and Democratic primaries - Sean Duffy is poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

41. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Hawaii 1 CD - Seems like Charles Djou will win the GOP primaries - He is also poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

42. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Maryland 1 CD - Seems like Andy Harris will win the GOP primaries - Close call between him and Frank Kratovil for the General Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

43. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: New Hampshire 1 CD - Seems like Frank Guinta will win the GOP primaries - He is also poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

44. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: New Hampshire 2 CD - Seems like Ann McLane and Charles Bass might win the Democratic and GOP primaries - Close call between them on the General Elections 36% 36% 17% Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

45. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Wisconsin 3 CD - Seems like Dan Kapanke will win the GOP primaries - Ron Kind is poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

46. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Wisconsin 8 CD - Close call between Roger Roth and Reid Ribble on the GOP primaries - Close call on the General Elections as well, although stronger GOP presence overall Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

47. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Massachusetts 10 CD - Seems Like Bill Keating and Jeff Perry will win the Democratic and GOP primaries - Jeff Perry is poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

48. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: Delaware At Large - Close call between Glen Urquhart and Michele Rollins on the GOP primaries - Close call on the General Elections as well, although stronger GOP presence overall Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

49. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: New York 1 CD - Close call on the GOP primaries - Close call on the General Elections as well, although stronger GOP presence overall Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

50. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: New York 13 CD - Seems like Mike Grimm will win the GOP primaries - He is also poised to win the Elections Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

51. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: New York 19 CD - Seems like Nan Hayworth will win the GOP primaries - Is he also poised to win the Elections? Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

52. U.S. House Primaries - Supporters on Facebook by Candidate Predictions: New York 20 CD - Will Chris Gibson win the General Elections? Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

54. Will he win the General Elections?Number of Supporters on Facebook Sources: Candidates’ Facebook pages and profiles, Candidates’ websites, www.nytimes.com/politics. Data as of 09/06/2010 Copyright ElectionArena 2010. Can use with Permission

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