This document provides guidance on campaigning against UKIP in local constituencies. It summarizes patterns of UKIP support across Britain, finding they have gained voters from all major parties but predominantly former Conservatives. It identifies key demographics of UKIP supporters as older men with fewer qualifications. The document is accompanied by constituency-specific data on polling districts and voters most likely to switch from Labour to UKIP based on their profile, to help target campaign messaging at winning back potential UKIP switchers.
Research into the potential correlation between presidential electoral advert...Emma Morris
This document summarizes Emma Morris's dissertation research into the potential correlation between presidential electoral advertisement spending by the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States and the number of votes, states, and elections won. The research analyzes spending and election results data from the 2004, 2008, and 2012 presidential elections. Databases were created to organize spending amounts by state and calculate averages in order to determine if higher spending corresponds to greater electoral success.
The document provides results from Toronto's 2009 Street Needs Assessment, which surveyed the city's homeless population. Some key findings:
- The estimated outdoor homeless population decreased 51% from 2006 to 2009, to 400 people.
- The total homeless population accessing city-administered services decreased slightly to 4,390.
- Family homelessness numbers fluctuate widely due to federal immigration policy, increasing 43% from 2005 to 2009.
- Aboriginal people remain overrepresented but the estimated number sleeping outside decreased 45% from 2006.
- Panhandling decreased as a reported income source while employment increased.
- Many homeless may be eligible for disability support but have not applied.
- More outreach
Local newspapers' online election coverage from October 25-29, 2004 was analyzed. 77% of stories changed over time, with most uploading by 9am. Coverage focused on local and regional stories (90%) rather than national. Endorsements did not affect tone of coverage. While some focused on "horse race" aspects, most stories were neutral (66%). Further analysis of bylines, story movement, lack of endorsements, and direction of online political news was recommended.
This document analyzes the mayoral by-elections held in Ferizaj and Kaçanik municipalities in Kosovo in 2013. It summarizes the election observation efforts of Democracy for Development Institute and Initiative for Progress, who deployed observers to all polling stations. While some improvements were noted compared to past elections, the report finds ongoing irregularities including voter intimidation and a lack of voter information. It concludes with recommendations to address issues in polling station management, the voter list, political campaigning and other aspects of the electoral process.
This document provides an introduction to a master's thesis that analyzes the legal and commercial issues in EU-Russia relations in the context of sanctions policy. It outlines the goals and structure of the thesis. The thesis will examine EU-Russia relations before and after sanctions were imposed in 2014 over Ukraine, the legal framework around the sanctions, and their impact on trade. It will also explore ways to optimize EU-Russia relations going forward. The introduction establishes that relations between the EU and Russia are an ongoing issue that significantly impacts international politics and economics.
Referendum in Moldova: is it a failure and which are the implications?IDIS Viitorul
The referendum in Moldova on changing the constitution to allow for direct election of the president failed to pass due to low voter turnout of 29.05%, below the required 33.33%. While not a total failure, implications include political parties redrawing plans and the possibility of repeated early elections if the issue of presidential elections is not resolved. Key factors in the low turnout included a boycott by the opposition Communist party, poor campaigning by pro-reform parties, and polarization following April protests.
Local media in the Eastern Ukraine (Government-controlled territories). Needs...DonbassFullAccess
The report summarizes the findings of a needs assessment of 29 local media outlets in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. It evaluated the capacity and content of the outlets, identified weaknesses in management, training needs of journalists, and basic institutional needs. The conflict with Russia has had a major impact on the local media landscape, causing economic depression and loss of personnel in the region. The needs assessment will help develop a training and support program to strengthen the independence and quality of local media.
This document provides an edited collection of papers on rethinking apprenticeships in the UK. It contains an introduction outlining the need to rethink apprenticeships given their declining role. It then has three sections: 1) on the role of apprenticeships in society and the economy, 2) supporting excellence through creating more and better apprenticeships, and 3) lessons that can be learned from apprenticeship systems abroad, particularly in German-speaking Europe and Australia. The conclusion reflects on how to secure a promising future for apprenticeships.
Research into the potential correlation between presidential electoral advert...Emma Morris
This document summarizes Emma Morris's dissertation research into the potential correlation between presidential electoral advertisement spending by the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States and the number of votes, states, and elections won. The research analyzes spending and election results data from the 2004, 2008, and 2012 presidential elections. Databases were created to organize spending amounts by state and calculate averages in order to determine if higher spending corresponds to greater electoral success.
The document provides results from Toronto's 2009 Street Needs Assessment, which surveyed the city's homeless population. Some key findings:
- The estimated outdoor homeless population decreased 51% from 2006 to 2009, to 400 people.
- The total homeless population accessing city-administered services decreased slightly to 4,390.
- Family homelessness numbers fluctuate widely due to federal immigration policy, increasing 43% from 2005 to 2009.
- Aboriginal people remain overrepresented but the estimated number sleeping outside decreased 45% from 2006.
- Panhandling decreased as a reported income source while employment increased.
- Many homeless may be eligible for disability support but have not applied.
- More outreach
Local newspapers' online election coverage from October 25-29, 2004 was analyzed. 77% of stories changed over time, with most uploading by 9am. Coverage focused on local and regional stories (90%) rather than national. Endorsements did not affect tone of coverage. While some focused on "horse race" aspects, most stories were neutral (66%). Further analysis of bylines, story movement, lack of endorsements, and direction of online political news was recommended.
This document analyzes the mayoral by-elections held in Ferizaj and Kaçanik municipalities in Kosovo in 2013. It summarizes the election observation efforts of Democracy for Development Institute and Initiative for Progress, who deployed observers to all polling stations. While some improvements were noted compared to past elections, the report finds ongoing irregularities including voter intimidation and a lack of voter information. It concludes with recommendations to address issues in polling station management, the voter list, political campaigning and other aspects of the electoral process.
This document provides an introduction to a master's thesis that analyzes the legal and commercial issues in EU-Russia relations in the context of sanctions policy. It outlines the goals and structure of the thesis. The thesis will examine EU-Russia relations before and after sanctions were imposed in 2014 over Ukraine, the legal framework around the sanctions, and their impact on trade. It will also explore ways to optimize EU-Russia relations going forward. The introduction establishes that relations between the EU and Russia are an ongoing issue that significantly impacts international politics and economics.
Referendum in Moldova: is it a failure and which are the implications?IDIS Viitorul
The referendum in Moldova on changing the constitution to allow for direct election of the president failed to pass due to low voter turnout of 29.05%, below the required 33.33%. While not a total failure, implications include political parties redrawing plans and the possibility of repeated early elections if the issue of presidential elections is not resolved. Key factors in the low turnout included a boycott by the opposition Communist party, poor campaigning by pro-reform parties, and polarization following April protests.
Local media in the Eastern Ukraine (Government-controlled territories). Needs...DonbassFullAccess
The report summarizes the findings of a needs assessment of 29 local media outlets in Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. It evaluated the capacity and content of the outlets, identified weaknesses in management, training needs of journalists, and basic institutional needs. The conflict with Russia has had a major impact on the local media landscape, causing economic depression and loss of personnel in the region. The needs assessment will help develop a training and support program to strengthen the independence and quality of local media.
This document provides an edited collection of papers on rethinking apprenticeships in the UK. It contains an introduction outlining the need to rethink apprenticeships given their declining role. It then has three sections: 1) on the role of apprenticeships in society and the economy, 2) supporting excellence through creating more and better apprenticeships, and 3) lessons that can be learned from apprenticeship systems abroad, particularly in German-speaking Europe and Australia. The conclusion reflects on how to secure a promising future for apprenticeships.
2015 01 09_briefing - non-european labour migration_mig_observatoryMiqui Mel
Non-EU labour migration to the UK increased from 1991 to a peak in 2004-2006, but has since declined. Skilled workers sponsored by employers (Tier 2 visas) make up the largest group of work visas. The majority of non-EU labour migrants are males aged 25-44 from Asian countries. Tier 1 and Tier 2 visas, which can lead to settlement, contribute most to the settled population in the UK compared to temporary work visas.
This document contains the minutes from the Annual General Meeting of the Anglo-Catalan Society held on September 6, 2014 in Cork, Ireland. It summarizes discussions on apologies for absences, approval of previous meeting's minutes, communications from the Chair and various officer reports on society activities, finances, scholarships, website and publications over the past year. The Treasurer's report indicated income and expenses for the year, and changes to membership rates and payment methods were proposed.
Creators in favor of independence (IT In Transit #33)Miqui Mel
This document summarizes an interview with singer and writer Lluís Llach about his new novel and his involvement in the Catalan independence process. It discusses his experience writing fiction for the first time and how he sees the sovereignty movement in Catalonia. It also briefly mentions Llach's retirement from music to focus on writing, and his work producing wine in Priorat.
The UKIP Manifesto 2015 - Believe in BritainMiqui Mel
The document summarizes UKIP's economic policies, which include cutting taxes for low and middle income earners, abolishing inheritance tax, replacing the Barnett Formula with a needs-based system of funding the devolved administrations, and cutting costs in Westminster. UKIP estimates their policies can be funded by reducing the UK's net contribution to the EU budget after leaving, cutting overseas aid, scrapping HS2, and replacing Barnett. Their goal is eliminating the budget deficit, reducing the national debt, and prioritizing spending on services like the NHS and defense over international priorities.
2014 08 07_internet access – households and individuals 2014Miqui Mel
- Three quarters of adults in Great Britain accessed the internet every day in 2014, over double the number in 2006.
- Access using a mobile phone more than doubled between 2010 and 2014, from 24% to 58%.
- Nearly three quarters of adults bought goods or services online in 2014, up from just over half in 2008, with clothes being the most popular purchase.
- Internet and computer use increased across all age groups between 2006 and 2014, though those aged 16-24 still lead in many online activities.
Economic effects of a potential secession of Catalonia from Spain and paths f...Miqui Mel
Scenarios of Macro-economic Development for Catalonia on Horizon 2030: Economic effects of a potential secession of Catalonia from Spain and paths for integration with the EU
Source: CEPS & CIDOB
Date: July 2015.
Do Mention the War - Will Matter 1914 in 2014?Miqui Mel
This document discusses public knowledge and interest in the First World War ahead of the centenary of its start in 2014. It finds that while most know the war began in 1914 and that Germany was an enemy, understanding of specific events and details is limited. However, it also finds significant interest among the public in learning more about how the war impacted Britain and its people. It argues the centenary presents an opportunity to not just commemorate the war but also explore how it shaped British identity and society over the past century.
SNP Manifesto 2015 - Stronger for ScotlandMiqui Mel
The manifesto outlines the SNP's priorities if elected to Westminster, which include ending austerity, increasing funding for the NHS, scrapping Trident nuclear weapons, increasing the minimum wage, reducing child poverty, protecting benefits for disabled people, abolishing the bedroom tax, investing in education, opposing withdrawal from the EU, increasing affordable housing, and creating better paid jobs. It also discusses delivering further devolution for Scotland and ensuring the SNP can work with other parties to prevent the Conservatives gaining power.
Analysing SABC Elections Coverage of the 2016 Local Government ElectionsWilliam Bird
The SABC covered the 2016 South African local government elections by focusing on larger political parties and national issues rather than local concerns. It analyzed party coverage, political ads, top issues, and protests. While the SABC framed protests as violent, it rarely showed violent footage. Overall, 10% of SABC stories were biased, though some programs like Xitsonga/Tshivenda News had higher rates at 34%. The report found the SABC treated local elections like national ones and there was a disconnect between what parties prioritized and what the SABC covered as important issues.
The document summarizes a political campaign by the Conservative Party in the UK led by David Cameron. The campaign aims to get British citizens engaged in politics and increase votes for the Conservative Party. It targets all UK citizens aged 18 and older. The campaign uses various techniques to reach its audience, including maintaining an informative website, speeches by Cameron, and posters displayed across the country featuring Cameron. The campaign has been largely successful, as evidenced by the Conservatives currently holding the position of UK government under Cameron's leadership.
Media Monitoring Africa's Sabc final report 2019SABC News
This document summarizes a report by Media Monitoring Africa analyzing media coverage of South Africa's 2019 elections. It monitored over 3,000 election-related news items on SABC platforms from March to May 2019. The top topics covered were party politics, campaigning, and national politics, which made up about a third of coverage. Service delivery and protests received moderate coverage. Very few stories covered issues like gender, poverty, or refugees. Most sources cited in stories were politicians, with few ordinary citizens or experts featured. The report aims to evaluate the SABC's impartiality and independence in its election reporting.
The document discusses strategies for identifying minority voters and targeting messaging toward conservative values. It promotes canvassing neighborhoods to identify voters and conduct surveys to build a model for getting out the conservative vote. It also describes new campaign software called ARC that uses voter data and mobile technology to help communicate with and mobilize conservative voters.
2015 01 09_briefing - non-european labour migration_mig_observatoryMiqui Mel
Non-EU labour migration to the UK increased from 1991 to a peak in 2004-2006, but has since declined. Skilled workers sponsored by employers (Tier 2 visas) make up the largest group of work visas. The majority of non-EU labour migrants are males aged 25-44 from Asian countries. Tier 1 and Tier 2 visas, which can lead to settlement, contribute most to the settled population in the UK compared to temporary work visas.
This document contains the minutes from the Annual General Meeting of the Anglo-Catalan Society held on September 6, 2014 in Cork, Ireland. It summarizes discussions on apologies for absences, approval of previous meeting's minutes, communications from the Chair and various officer reports on society activities, finances, scholarships, website and publications over the past year. The Treasurer's report indicated income and expenses for the year, and changes to membership rates and payment methods were proposed.
Creators in favor of independence (IT In Transit #33)Miqui Mel
This document summarizes an interview with singer and writer Lluís Llach about his new novel and his involvement in the Catalan independence process. It discusses his experience writing fiction for the first time and how he sees the sovereignty movement in Catalonia. It also briefly mentions Llach's retirement from music to focus on writing, and his work producing wine in Priorat.
The UKIP Manifesto 2015 - Believe in BritainMiqui Mel
The document summarizes UKIP's economic policies, which include cutting taxes for low and middle income earners, abolishing inheritance tax, replacing the Barnett Formula with a needs-based system of funding the devolved administrations, and cutting costs in Westminster. UKIP estimates their policies can be funded by reducing the UK's net contribution to the EU budget after leaving, cutting overseas aid, scrapping HS2, and replacing Barnett. Their goal is eliminating the budget deficit, reducing the national debt, and prioritizing spending on services like the NHS and defense over international priorities.
2014 08 07_internet access – households and individuals 2014Miqui Mel
- Three quarters of adults in Great Britain accessed the internet every day in 2014, over double the number in 2006.
- Access using a mobile phone more than doubled between 2010 and 2014, from 24% to 58%.
- Nearly three quarters of adults bought goods or services online in 2014, up from just over half in 2008, with clothes being the most popular purchase.
- Internet and computer use increased across all age groups between 2006 and 2014, though those aged 16-24 still lead in many online activities.
Economic effects of a potential secession of Catalonia from Spain and paths f...Miqui Mel
Scenarios of Macro-economic Development for Catalonia on Horizon 2030: Economic effects of a potential secession of Catalonia from Spain and paths for integration with the EU
Source: CEPS & CIDOB
Date: July 2015.
Do Mention the War - Will Matter 1914 in 2014?Miqui Mel
This document discusses public knowledge and interest in the First World War ahead of the centenary of its start in 2014. It finds that while most know the war began in 1914 and that Germany was an enemy, understanding of specific events and details is limited. However, it also finds significant interest among the public in learning more about how the war impacted Britain and its people. It argues the centenary presents an opportunity to not just commemorate the war but also explore how it shaped British identity and society over the past century.
SNP Manifesto 2015 - Stronger for ScotlandMiqui Mel
The manifesto outlines the SNP's priorities if elected to Westminster, which include ending austerity, increasing funding for the NHS, scrapping Trident nuclear weapons, increasing the minimum wage, reducing child poverty, protecting benefits for disabled people, abolishing the bedroom tax, investing in education, opposing withdrawal from the EU, increasing affordable housing, and creating better paid jobs. It also discusses delivering further devolution for Scotland and ensuring the SNP can work with other parties to prevent the Conservatives gaining power.
Analysing SABC Elections Coverage of the 2016 Local Government ElectionsWilliam Bird
The SABC covered the 2016 South African local government elections by focusing on larger political parties and national issues rather than local concerns. It analyzed party coverage, political ads, top issues, and protests. While the SABC framed protests as violent, it rarely showed violent footage. Overall, 10% of SABC stories were biased, though some programs like Xitsonga/Tshivenda News had higher rates at 34%. The report found the SABC treated local elections like national ones and there was a disconnect between what parties prioritized and what the SABC covered as important issues.
The document summarizes a political campaign by the Conservative Party in the UK led by David Cameron. The campaign aims to get British citizens engaged in politics and increase votes for the Conservative Party. It targets all UK citizens aged 18 and older. The campaign uses various techniques to reach its audience, including maintaining an informative website, speeches by Cameron, and posters displayed across the country featuring Cameron. The campaign has been largely successful, as evidenced by the Conservatives currently holding the position of UK government under Cameron's leadership.
Media Monitoring Africa's Sabc final report 2019SABC News
This document summarizes a report by Media Monitoring Africa analyzing media coverage of South Africa's 2019 elections. It monitored over 3,000 election-related news items on SABC platforms from March to May 2019. The top topics covered were party politics, campaigning, and national politics, which made up about a third of coverage. Service delivery and protests received moderate coverage. Very few stories covered issues like gender, poverty, or refugees. Most sources cited in stories were politicians, with few ordinary citizens or experts featured. The report aims to evaluate the SABC's impartiality and independence in its election reporting.
The document discusses strategies for identifying minority voters and targeting messaging toward conservative values. It promotes canvassing neighborhoods to identify voters and conduct surveys to build a model for getting out the conservative vote. It also describes new campaign software called ARC that uses voter data and mobile technology to help communicate with and mobilize conservative voters.
Debra Cleaver, founder and CEO of Vote.org, provides an overview of the organization's mission to increase voter turnout through technology and outreach to low-propensity voters. She discusses Vote.org's impact, including millions of website visits and tool uses. Cleaver then outlines Vote.org's strategy to increase 2018 midterm turnout through multi-channel marketing like SMS, digital radio, direct mail and billboards, emphasizing research showing these tactics can effectively reach young voters and people of color. She asks for donations to fund Vote.org's work mobilizing underrepresented voters.
Political Campaigns & Predictive Analytics- Changing how to campaignNathan Watson
This document discusses how predictive analytics can help political campaigns target voters more effectively. It provides two case studies: a gubernatorial campaign that used 13 predictive models to microtarget voters, and a local commissioner race that focused on three voter groups. Both campaigns used the analytics to identify key voter issues, predict turnout, and target messaging, allowing them to compete against better-funded opponents. The analytics accurately predicted election outcomes for both campaigns.
Electable aims to help voters learn about local elections by providing candidate profiles and ballot information searchable by address. It will offer this platform as a service to news outlets and candidates. News outlets will benefit from lessened workload and improved reader experience. Candidates without websites will gain a better connection to voters. The company founders have experience developing election tools for news organizations. They plan to pursue the opportunity full time by hiring additional roles and pursuing revenue from premium features to reach profitability by 2017.
Assignment-Proposed Intervention(s) and ImplementationEvaluation .docxedmondpburgess27164
Assignment-Proposed Intervention(s) and Implementation/Evaluation Plan
Describe in detail proposed intervention(s) and program(s)* for Cyber Addiction in Adolescents in the United States (age range 10-19 years old) and how they compare to existing programs. Be sure to discuss plans, resources needed and issues associated with implementation and evaluation of your proposed interventions. Your proposed interventions should be feasible given available resources and evaluation plans should consider specific goals and measurable outcomes.
*for proposed intervention/programs also include reality therapy and the reSTART Program
Assignment Submission Requirements
· 5 pages, double-spaced
· Include a detailed outline for the paper and include headings and sub-headings appropriate for your content.
· Use relevant resources and cite correctly
Rubric
Paper Outline
Creates a clear outline that demonstrates a logical order of information or clearly groups similar ideas together.
Intervention plan and needed resources
Discusses the intervention plan and resources needed for the proposed intervention(s) in detail.
Comparison with Existing Programs
Provides a detailed discussion of how the proposed intervention differs from or improves upon existing programs.
Challenges with implementation
Provides a detailed description of potential challenges associated with implementing the intervention.
Evaluation plan
Describes an evaluation plan for the proposed intervention using specific goals and measurable outcomes.
Challenges with evaluation
Provides a detailed description of potential challenges that may be associated with the evaluation process.
Writing Quality
Free of spelling errors and uses good grammar. Uses good sentence structure throughout and written content flows well.
Bibliography (AMA style)
Provides citations for data and statements of fact. References are from peer reviewed journals, in proper AMA style including author names, article title, journal abbreviation, and punctuation. No more than 10% of references are from websites/government reports.
Campaigns and Elections
Chapter 8
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
In this chapter you will:
Learn what is unique (and what is not) about American elections.
Examine how democratic American elections are today.
Discuss the influence of money in elections.
Explore presidential and congressional campaigns.
Identify the keys to a successful campaign for Congress.
Consider campaign and election reforms.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
Elections in the United States
The Constitution leaves details to the states. States choose the “time, place, and manner” for electing members of Congress. The Constitution produces fifty slightly different election systems.
CHAPTER 8: CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS
How Democratic are American Elections?
Frequent and Fixed Elections
The United States holds elections for national office more often than any other advanced democratic country.
House members are chos.
This document provides guidelines for journalists on appropriately reporting opinion polls. It discusses [1] determining whether a poll meets professional standards, [2] deciding if a poll's findings have newsworthiness, and [3] the appropriate way to publish poll findings. Key points include checking a poll's methodology, sample size, and margin of error; using polls to enhance issues coverage rather than set the agenda; and providing full context and disclosure when publishing poll results. The guidelines aim to help journalists identify valid, reliable polls and determine the most meaningful way to communicate poll findings to their audience.
In 2019 our founder worked with a number of “mainstream” MPs who were frustrated by the rise of extremist politics. It was clear that influential Westminster figures were promoting “vote-winning” policies which were unlikely to be popular at all. It took a General Election before that unpopularity was proven.
In CanDo we use inexpensive modern consumer research tools extensively. Sometimes we buy ads on Facebook to invite people to fill in surveys. For other projects we use an automated research panel called PollFish. We usually pay less than £2 per response.
This inspired us: perhaps anyone concerned with politics could use the same tools to establish the popularity of policy ideas? We set out to prove that they can. Along the way we developed replicable methodology which anyone can use to conduct representative polls, within hours, for a few hundred pounds. Naturally, we used it ourselves - learning interesting things about which policy areas are deemed important by the public right now (and which aren’t).
Feel free to download our report and let us know if you decide to run any polls!
This document outlines the structure and requirements for a Modern Studies exam consisting of 3 sections worth 60 marks total. Section 1 is on democracy in Scotland/UK and is worth 20 marks. Candidates must choose one of two parts, each focusing on different aspects of democracy. Section 2, also worth 20 marks, covers social issues in the UK and requires choosing between parts on social inequality or crime/law. Section 3, the final section worth 20 marks, presents choices between parts examining world powers or issues. The exam instructions specify writing answers in the provided booklet and identifying the question number being attempted.
This report summarizes the findings of a survey of 122 students regarding their views on the UK's EU referendum. The majority of students (68.9%) support remaining in the EU, though a significant minority (5.7%) remain unsure. When asked about policy areas influencing views, borders and immigration was most commonly cited (23%). Most felt the UK parliament best handles policies, though some support further devolution. Half support EU migrants receiving equal welfare benefits. Students feel informed about the debate, citing online media as most informative. While most feel a referendum is appropriate, 30% disagree it is the best method. Continuity with the EU and issues of sovereignty were recurrent themes.
The document analyzes media coverage of South Africa's 2019 national and provincial elections over a three month period from March to May 2019. It monitored over 10,000 news stories across various media platforms. The summary is:
1) Party politics, political campaigning, and national politics made up over a third of the news coverage, while important citizen issues like service delivery, poverty, and inequality received much less attention.
2) Sources in the news coverage were disproportionately from political parties and the government, while citizen voices and other groups received far less representation.
3) While citizen voices saw a rise in representation compared to previous elections, the media's coverage still focused more on political voices and rhetoric rather than addressing
Community newspapers are an effective advertising medium for several reasons:
1. They have unparalleled reach within local communities, with some titles reaching up to 69% of households in their areas. No other print media can match their local reach.
2. They provide excellent local coverage since their circulation is focused within specific communities, rather than being spread more widely. This means more of the newspapers actually reach target audiences.
3. Readers use community newspapers as a reference point and "media shopping mall" when planning local purchases, making them a good environment for advertising messages.
The document outlines the DCCC's grassroots organizing program for 2010. The program has three focuses: utilizing local networks to build volunteer organizations, using these organizations to persuade and motivate voters, and reminding voters of the importance of the election. The program is set up through state Democratic parties and aims to benefit Democratic candidates by supporting them within campaign finance limits.
Charities play a vital role in communities across Britain – but what do people really think about them? We partnered with ComRes to investigate the attitudes that MPs and voters hold towards charities, and the policies that they think the Government should implement to increase the impact that voluntary organisations have.
Our report looks at how attitudes between MPs and voters differ, where voters and MPs affiliated to the same party agree and disagree, and shines a light on the attitude of new MPs towards charities.
The document outlines the goals and structure of the DCCC Grassroots Organizing Program. The program aims to build local volunteer networks to mobilize voters and support Democratic candidates. It establishes field directors in targeted districts working through state Democratic parties. The program benefits candidates by coordinating grassroots efforts and expenditures within campaign finance limits.
The document outlines the goals and structure of the DCCC Grassroots Organizing Program. The program aims to build local volunteer networks to mobilize voters and support Democratic candidates. It establishes field directors in targeted districts working through state Democratic parties. The program benefits candidates by coordinating grassroots efforts and expenditures within campaign finance limits.
The document outlines the goals and structure of the DCCC Grassroots Organizing Program. The program aims to build local volunteer networks to mobilize voters and support Democratic candidates. It establishes field directors in targeted districts working through state Democratic parties. The program benefits candidates by coordinating grassroots efforts and expenditures within campaign finance limits.
TC vs el Pla Estratègic d'Acció Exterior GenCat - FalloMiqui Mel
El Tribunal Constitucional español dictaminó sobre un recurso de inconstitucionalidad presentado por el Presidente del Gobierno contra la Ley del Parlamento de Cataluña 16/2014 sobre acción exterior y relaciones con la Unión Europea. El Tribunal declaró la inconstitucionalidad de varios artículos de dicha ley al considerar que invaden competencias exclusivas del Estado en materia de relaciones internacionales y de coordinación de la acción exterior.
TC vs el Pla Estratègic d'Acció Exterior GenCatMiqui Mel
EL PLENO DEL TC DECLARA INCONSTITUCIONAL PARTE DEL PLAN ESTRATÉGICO DE ACCIÓN EXTERIOR Y DE RELACIONES CON LA UNIÓN EUROPEA 2019-2020 APROBADO POR EL GOBIERNO DE CATALUÑA
Political Opinion Barometer Catalonia - 3rd Wave 2015Miqui Mel
This document provides the technical specifications and main results of the 3rd wave of 2015 of the Political Opinion Barometer survey conducted in Catalonia. It details the sample size of 2,000 interviews, methodology used, margins of error, and key findings. The main results show that 65% of respondents believe Catalonia has an insufficient level of autonomy, 41.1% believe it should be an independent state, and 46.7% want Catalonia to become an independent state.
Political Opinion Barometer - CEO (July 2015)Miqui Mel
This document provides technical specifications and main results from a political opinion barometer survey conducted in Catalonia, Spain. It details the survey methodology, including a sample size of 2,000 respondents stratified across Catalonia's four provinces. Key findings summarized include that over 50% of respondents feel Catalonia does not receive fair treatment from the Spanish government, and around 42-43% of respondents want Catalonia to become an independent state.
El documento presenta el proyecto Espai Barça, que busca renovar las instalaciones del FC Barcelona a través de cinco unidades de proyecto. Se detallan los estudios realizados sobre urbanismo, estructuras, instalaciones y otros aspectos. El objetivo es proteger y aumentar el patrimonio del club dentro de un presupuesto de 600 millones de euros, mejorando las instalaciones deportivas y creando un campus abierto a la ciudad.
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptxPragencyuk
Discover the essential tools and strategies for modern PR business success. Learn how to craft compelling news releases, leverage press release sites and news wires, stay updated with PR news, and integrate effective PR practices to enhance your brand's visibility and credibility. Elevate your PR efforts with our comprehensive guide.
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series) The Acolyte. Learn about the influence of the program on the Star Wars world, as well as new characters and story twists.
An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
1. Page 1 of 32
CampaigningagainstUKIP–Inyourconstituency
Campaigning against UKIP
November 2014
2. 2
Campaigning against UKIP
Contents
1. Context............................................................................................................................................................ 3
2. Purpose........................................................................................................................................................... 4
3. The pattern of UKIP support ................................................................................................................. 5
3.1 UKIP’s support across Britain........................................................................................................ 5
3.2 Explaining UKIP support ................................................................................................................. 9
4. Campaigning methods, issues and messaging............................................................................12
4.1 The importance of local campaigning.....................................................................................12
4.2 Targeting key messages ..............................................................................................................14
4.3 Immigration.........................................................................................................................................16
4.4 Issue choice.............................................................................................................................................17
5. Your constituency ....................................................................................................................................18
5.1 Local election results .....................................................................................................................18
5.2 Demographics in question............................................................................................................19
5.3 Finding Labour-UKIP switchers in your constituency......................................................19
5.4 Contact rates......................................................................................................................................21
6. Turning this into effective local campaigning.................................................................................22
6.1 Addressing issues on the doorstep..........................................................................................22
6.2 Briefing and equipping local activists.....................................................................................23
6.3 Establishing on-going relationships........................................................................................23
6.4 Core messaging resources...........................................................................................................24
6.5 Identifying UKIP switchers..........................................................................................................27
6.5 Monitoring local UKIP activity....................................................................................................29
Appendix A: Mosaic groups and Types ....................................................................................................30
Appendix B: Key features of Mosaic groups .........................................................................................31
Appendix C: Voter ID script ...........................................................................................................................32
3. 3
1. Context
Although UKIP was founded more than twenty years ago, it is only in the last two years
that they have moved from being yet another minor protest party to being a significant
presence in both national polling and local elections right across England, and indeed
across Britain. UKIP’s strong performance in the 2014 European Election in areas as
diverse as Wales and the South East of England, has shown that it is capable of winning
support outside its traditional heartlands in the rural South West and parts of eastern
England where their support has previously been concentrated.
With victories in Clacton and Rochester & Strood behind them, as well as a very close
second in Heywood & Middleton, it is now clear that UKIP expect to poll strongly in many
Labour-held constituencies and key seat targets which we need to win from the
Conservatives.
UKIP has shown it can now both put together a strong field operation and draw
substantial support with next to no local activity. It is therefore crucial that there is a
clear strategy to fight them in the constituencies where or local MPs or the party believe
there to be a threat.
The targeting and analysis team at Head Office has done a substantial amount of work
to relate patterns on a national level to the demographic and electoral make-up of every
Labour seat where UKIP may present an electoral challenge. This note sets out the
pattern of that support, effective messages to counter it, and ultimately how you can
most effectively campaign against UKIP in your own constituency.
This document should be accompanied by two constituency-specific
documents:
1) A table of polling districts where our models indicate the highest % of
electors whose demographic profile most looks like those of voters that have
or are considering switching from Labour to UKIP.
2) A constituency map that shows the same data at postcode level. document
should be accompanied with two constituency specific documents:
3)
4) A table of polling districts where our models indicate the highest % of
electors whose demographic profile most looks like those of voters that have
or are considering switching from Labour to UKIP
5)
6) A constituency map that shows the same data at postcode level
7)
8) This document should be accompanied with two constituency specific
documents:
9)
10) A table of polling districts where our models indicate the highest % of
electors whose demographic profile most looks like those of voters that have
or are considering switching from Labour to UKIP
4. 4
11)
12) A constituency map that shows the same data at postcode level
13)
14) This document should be accompanied with two constituency specific
documents:
15)
16) A table of polling districts where our models indicate the highest % of
electors whose demographic profile most looks like those of voters that have
or are considering switching from Labour to UKIP
17)
18) A constituency map that shows the same data at postcode level
19)
20) This document should be accompanied with two constituency specific
documents:
21)
22) A table of polling districts where our models indicate the highest % of
electors whose demographic profile most looks like those of voters that have
or are considering switching from Labour to UKIP
23)
24) A constituency map that shows the same data at postcode level
25)
26)
5. 5
2. Purpose
The report covers:
o patterns in UKIP support across Britain, including
o the pattern of UKIP support across Britain, in terms of where their support
is located, and from which parties they have gained support;
o the characteristics and attributes of their supporters in social, economic,
and cultural terms;
o our view on how UKIP’s appeal can be countered and why we believe that.
o identifying and targeting potential switchers to UKIP, including:
o our approach to identifying people likely to switch– either from Labour to
UKIP or vice-versa;
o our approach to analysing electors’ characteristics, the issues they care
about and therefore the focus of our campaigns;
o a spatial analysis of where those people are located within your
constituency, including a separate A3 map, to enable campaign activities
to be targeted accordingly;
o our advice on the messages and methods most likely to be effective in
your constituency in countering UKIP’s appeal; and
o the tools and selections on Contact Creator and Campaign Creator to
translate these recommendations into effective campaigning.
Lessons can be learnt from the European election campaign. In particular, strong
campaigning on the ground can help to win back and secure the support of disaffected
electors who may be sympathetic to UKIP’s positioning as a party of protest and
discontent. Past Labour Party campaigns against protest parties (including against the
BNP in Barking and against the Liberal Democrats in constituencies ranging from
Chesterfield to Islington South) have shown that work on the doorstep, combining clear
messaging and targeting within constituencies will help to combat this threat on the
ground.
This document collects together voter ID data collected by Labour Party activists across
the country, polling data from a range of polling houses and demographic information
about the electorate in each constituency to identify those electors who are at greatest
risk of switching their vote from the Labour Party to UKIP. It then uses this information,
and evidence from campaigning on the ground, to inform how to secure their support.
6. 6
3. The pattern of UKIP support
3.1 UKIP’s support across Britain
UKIP’s early support was largely concentrated in the rural South West and parts of
Eastern England. As their popularity increased in recent years, UKIP has also won
significant vote shares in a wider range of areas, including in coalfield communities
where support for the Labour Party has traditionally been strong. Nonetheless, the party
has remained unable to make significant inroads into London:
Figure 1: UKIP vote share, 2013 & 2014:
2013 local election results by constituency 2014 local election results by ward
(Purple = actual results, Orange=Predicted results1
)
A major part of UKIP’s electoral success appears to have come from disenchanted
supporters of all three main parties along with a number of previous non-voters:
- former Conservative supporters who have no other outlet for their protest vote
against the government;
- former Liberal Democrat supporters who have been let down by their previous
attempt to cast a protest vote but are not inclined to support the Labour Party as
the main opposition; and
- former Labour supporters who feel that the party has left them behind in pursuit
of better-educated, middle-class, white-collar voters.
1
Notional constituency level results from the 2013 local elections in areas where no local elections were
held are estimated by the Labour Party using the results elsewhere that year, historical election results in
that area, and the demographic make-up of the constituency.
7. 7
Disenchanted Conservative supporters have played a large role in UKIP’s success story.
Research from YouGov in February 2014 suggested that nationally, the Conservative
Party had lost four times as many votes to UKIP as the Labour Party since the 2010
General Election. Figure 2 demonstrates this, with 45% of UKIP’s support at the time
estimated to have come from the Conservatives as opposed to 11% from the Labour
Party:
Figure 2: UKIP support by 2010 General Election vote:
YouGov Polling Data, February 2014
Nonetheless, UKIP’s increased support in the 2014 European Elections came at the
expense of all three main political parties; they won the support of electors who had
previously voted for the Conservatives, the Labour Party and the Lib Dems. However,
this is not spread evenly across all parties, nor is it evenly spread across the country.
The geographic distribution of UKIP support is not random and certain areas show
significantly larger increases in UKIP vote share than others.
Figure 3 shows that former Conservatives have consistently made up the largest part of
UKIP support. The British Election Study, the principal academic study of electoral
patterns in the UK, suggested that nearly 1 in 5 Conservative supporters from the 2010
General Election were considering voting for UKIP in the 2015 General Election even
before the start of the European Election campaign (in February/March 2014).
This increased marginally by the time of the European Elections (in May/June 2010).
However, support from former Labour and Lib Dem supporters increased much more
sharply and more noticeably over the course of the campaign, with 8% of 2010 Labour
voters and 11% of 2010 Lib Dem voters reporting an intention to vote for UKIP in the
2015 General Election by May/June 2015.
UKIP’s support also increased during this period among non-voters, but still remained
lower than the average level across all electors.
Conservatives
Labour
Lib Dems
BNP
UKIP
Other
Don't know
Did not vote
8. 8
Figure 3: UKIP voting intention by 2010 General Election vote:
Data from British Election Study 2015
The varied nature of UKIP supporters can be seen when comparing their views of other
political parties. The British Election Study asked respondents if they would ever
consider voting for a range of political parties, including the Labour Party. This was
measured on a scale of 0 (would never vote for the party) to 10 (would seriously
consider voting for the party).
As figure 4 shows, UKIP supporters who reported voting for the Labour Party in the
2010 General Election indicate the highest average propensity to vote Labour (with a
mean value of 5 out of 10). While this may not be surprising, the difference between
this group (who ComRes estimate make up only 11% of UKIP supporters) and people
who reported voting Conservative is particularly stark: former Conservative voters who
now support UKIP report almost no chance of ever considering voting Labour. The
average propensity to vote Labour among Liberal Democrats and non-voters from 2010
is also under 1 out of 10, though there is more variation within these groups:
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Conservative Labour Lib Dem Non Voter All
Reported 2010 Vote Respondents
Feb/Mar 2014
May/Jun 2014
9. 9
Figure 4: UKIP supporters’ propensity to vote Labour2
by 2010 General Election vote:
Data from British Election Study, 2015
As former Conservative supporters are estimated to make up almost half of UKIP
supporters, this makes it clear regarding UKIP supporters as a homogeneous group is a
mistake. For that reason, it is important to carefully target sub-groups within UKIP’s
base of support, as many UKIP-leaning electors report they have little (or no) chance of
ever considering voting Labour. We should therefore use the limited time before the
General Election to concentrate our efforts and resources on the electors we are most
likely to be able to persuade to vote Labour.
Polling for ComRes in October 20143
suggested that, while 16% of self-identified
Labour supporters would consider voting for UKIP in the 2015 General Election, 1 in 10
current UKIP supporters would consider voting for the Labour Party. This highlights that
there are votes that can be won (and lost) in the fight against UKIP. Our goal is to
identify and target these electors with our key persuasion messages to win their
support:
Table 1: Parties considering voting for in 2015 General Election, by party identification:
Other party
considered4
Total Conservative
Supporters
Labour
Supporters
Lib Dem
Supporters
UKIP
Supporters
Conservative 8% - 5% 19% 16%
Labour 9% 8% - 25% 10%
Lib Dem 10% 13% 13% - 3%
Green 13% 8% 21% 26% 6%
UKIP 15% 28% 16% 9% -
None of these 55% 51% 50% 36% 68%
ComRes Polling Data, October 2014
2
Responses were measures on an 11-point scale where 0=”Very unlikely to ever vote Labour” and
10=”Very likely to ever vote Labour”.
3
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/IoS_SM_Political_Poll_Additional_Questions_19th_October_2014.pdf
4
Respondents could select more than one party
10. 10
The biggest single group of UKIP supporters, former Tories, are likely to be attracted to
UKIP due their anti-EU rhetoric and right-wing policies which overlap with the
Conservative Party’s right-wing policy agenda. As such, these electors are unlikely to be
easily won over by the Labour Party in the 2015 General Election.
In the context of the challenge from UKIP, these electors are not the Labour Party’s
main electoral concern. Instead, our priority should be UKIP supporters who would or
might otherwise support the Labour Party. This is not confined to electors who voted for
the Labour Party in 2010, but also includes earlier Labour supporters and former Liberal
Democrats seeking a new outlet for their protest.
3.2 Explaining UKIP support
Gender, age, educational attainment, and social class are consistently strong predictors
of UKIP support. In particular, older men from lower social grades with fewer educational
qualifications tend to be more likely to vote for UKIP. This is evident not only when
comparing these individual factors but also when looking at them in combination. As
figure 3 shows, men aged 47 and over in social grades C2, D and E are almost four times
as likely to report voting for UKIP than women aged 46 and under who are in A, B or C1
social grades (19% compared to 5%):
Figure 5: UKIP support by gender, age and social grade:
Data from GQRR Polling for the Labour Party
Experian’s Mosaic classification5
allows us to segment the population according to social,
economic and cultural characteristics. As such, it offers greater explanatory power than
5
Mosaic classification assigns all electors to one of 67 Mosaic Types, within 15 Mosaic groups, based on
data on people’s circumstances, lifestyle, social characteristics and cultural choices from more than 400
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
C2, D, E Social Grades
A, B, C1 Social Grades
C2, D, E Social Grades
A, B, C1 Social Grades
C2, D, E Social Grades
A, B, C1 Social Grades
C2, D, E Social Grades
A, B, C1 Social Grades
18-46years
old
Over47years
old
18-46years
old
Over47years
old
MaleFemale
Size of Group in Sample (#) UKIP Voters (%)
11. 11
the traditional categorisation of social grade as it can take into account a wider range of
politically relevant factors.
Our current understanding suggests that UKIP’s support is strongest among the
following Mosaic groups:
- L – “Elderly Needs” (26%)
Elderly people who are reliant on support either through specialised
accommodation or the basic state pension
- E – “Active Retirement” (22%)
- Elders who have sufficient pensions and savings to choose pleasant locations in
which to enjoy their retirement
- M – “Industrial Heritage” (20%)
Families and couples owning affordable older style housing in communities
historically dependent on manufacturing
- D – “Small Town Diversity” (19%)
Residents of small and medium-sized towns who have strong roots in their local
community
However, it is not enough to merely identify those Mosaic groups where UKIP support is
most widespread because many UKIP supporters have little or no chance of ever voting
Labour. Instead, we should target electors who share similar characteristics to UKIP
supporters, but fall into our categorisation of UKIP-Labour switchers based on our
polling data. This group is defined as:
a) voted Labour in 2010 and intend to vote UKIP now;
b) intend to vote UKIP now but state that they have a good chance of voting Labour,
and a fair or no chance of voting Tory;
c) intend to vote UKIP now but state that they have a fair chance of voting Labour, and
no chance of voting Tory; or
d) intend to vote Labour but report a good chance of voting UKIP.
As figure 6 shows, the biggest group of such electors is within Mosaic group J, followed
by Mosaic groups I and L. From this analysis, we can conclude that UKIP supporters who
have little chance of ever voting for the Labour Party, like Mosaic group A, or electors
who are unlikely ever to vote UKIP, like Mosaic group O, should not be the focus of our
campaigning against UKIP. It is also important to recognise that each constituency will
have its own particular demographic composition, and the proportion of groups in your
constituency may differ from the national average.
sources. A list of Mosaic groups and brief descriptions is attached in Appendices B and C. More information
can also be found at www.members.labour.org.uk/mosaic (on Membersnet).
12. 12
Figure 6: UKIP support and UKIP-Labour switchers by Mosaic group:
Data from GQRR Polling for the Labour Party
Just as not all electors in different Mosaic groups are not all equally likely to vote for
UKIP, not all UKIP-supporting electors are as likely as each other to vote for the Labour
Party. Therefore, it is not our aim simply to target electors in the Mosaic groups with the
strongest likelihood to support UKIP in the run up to the 2015 General Election.
Instead, we are targeting those electors who are likely to be sympathetic towards both
the Labour Party and UKIP, i.e.: those electors who are both amongst the most likely to
vote for UKIP in the General Election and who have more favourable views of the Labour
Party. Generally targeting UKIP sympathisers or targeting those UKIP supporters who
would otherwise vote Conservative is not an efficient use of our campaign efforts and
resources and could be a dispiriting experience for volunteers on the doorstep.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
PercentageSupportingUKIP
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
PercentageLabour-UKIPSwitchers
Mosaic Group
13. 13
4. Campaigning methods, issues and messaging
4.1 The importance of local campaigning
Pattie and Johnston sum up the research on campaign effects in the UK bluntly: “Other
things being equal, the more parties campaign locally, the more votes they gain and the
fewer votes go to their rivals.”6
UKIP gathers much of its support from voters who feel the Party has left them behind,
and have therefore lost faith and trust in the Party. Re-establishing this trust is a labour-
intensive activity, requiring determined activity from local campaigns to listen to and
understand the reasons behind this disillusion.
Of the relatively few studies that have attempted to quantify the effect of local
campaigns, a change in intensity of the Labour Party’s local campaign from no
campaigning to the average ‘campaign intensity’ was associated with an increase in our
vote share of more than 5 percentage points, even when taking other local political
factors in account.7
Of particular relevance to this election, there is evidence that the
benefits gained from campaigning are even larger for opposition parties than they are
for incumbents8
.
This is reinforced by our internal research from the 2010 General Election, which
measured an even greater effect of voter contact on a candidate’s vote share. Table 2
shows that voter contact rates within a constituency had a significant effect on the
vote share won by the Labour candidate, even when considering campaign spend and
the local political context:
Table 2: Substantive impact of local campaigning
Constituency Contact Rate Effect on Candidate Vote Share
10 % +1.7%
20 % +3.4%
30 % +5.2%
In addition to this is the well-established effect that door-knocking has on increasing
voter turnout. The availability of the marked register of electors enables us to determine
accurately whether conversations on the door have a significant impact on behaviour in
the context of turning out and voting. Extensive evidence reveals a consistent
relationship between campaign activity and the propensity of an individual elector to
turn out to vote.
Respected studies have produced convincing evidence that door-to-door Get Out The
Vote drives increase turnout by 5 to 10 percentage points. Cutts, Fieldhouse and John
6
Pattie, C, and Johnston, R. "Talking to the converted or reaching out to the uncommitted? Who do political
campaigns influence?." Journal of Political Marketing 11.4 (2012): 265-298.
7
Fisher, J, Cutts, D. and Fieldhouse, E. "Constituency Campaigning in the 2010 British General Election."
American Political Science Association Annual Conference, September. 2010.
8
Fieldhouse, E, and Cutts, D. "The effectiveness of local party campaigns in 2005: combining evidence
from campaign spending and agent survey data." British Journal of Political Science 39.02 (2009): 367-
388.
14. 14
(2009) report that door-knocking increased turnout by 6.7% in the 2005 general
election in the Wythenshawe and Sale East constituency9
.
Therefore, local campaigning is one of the most powerful tools we have at our disposal
in the run up to the 2015 General Election. It will be particularly important against UKIP,
a party which has relatively little experience of fighting elections on the ground,
especially across a large geographical area. Furthermore, constituency campaigning
allows MPs to concentrate on the work they have done for and links they have already
established within their local communities, as well as on key issues important in these
areas.
Even in UKIP’s target areas, immigration, the issue most closely associated with their
rise, is not necessarily the key local issue. Figure 7 shows that a poll ahead of the by-
election in Rochester and Strood, Survation found that the respondents were more likely
to identify “The quality of local NHS hospitals and GP services in Medway” above “The
impact of immigration on your local community” or indeed any other local issue. Only
UKIP supporters were more likely to select immigration than any other issue and among
Labour supporters, this was selected by fewer respondents than the proportion who
selected employment, education or crime.
However, local campaigns need to understand that for many voters disaffection and
disillusion are less about policy and more about trust and communication. Once a
dialogue is opened and trust begins to be re-established, policy messages can be
carefully dropped into conversations with likely UKIP switchers.
9
Cutts, D, Fieldhouse, E. and John, P. "Is voting habit forming? The longitudinal impact of a GOTV campaign
in the UK." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 19.3 (2009): 251-263.
15. 15
Figure 7: Most important local issue for residents of Rochester and Strood:
Data from Survation, October 2014
4.2 Targeting key messages
Local campaigning on the doorstep is vital to the fight against UKIP in constituencies
across the country. However, these campaigns must be supported by clear and carefully
targeted messaging to ensure that potential Labour supporters know about the policies
we can offer them and their communities. Those areas where we are generally seen to
have the best policies should therefore be front and centre of any issue-based
campaign.
A key point here is to ensure that, where possible, the message to voters is local and
tangible. It needs to mean something personally to each voter. To many voters, simply
repeating the words of a leaflet might confirm what they suspect– that the Labour Party
is not interested in what’s happening in their local area.
For example, when we talk about the NHS with voters we should relate it to “the
hospital up the road” or “the drop-in centre in town” or “the GP surgery on Queensway”–
therefore relating a national message into a locally relevant and tangible message, even
if it may be more modest. Taking our recently announced policy of ensuring local,
democratically-elected officials decide on local bus routes, another example of this
would be a message of “we’ll make sure Number 25 bus goes to town every hour”.
This reminds voters that we’re both aware of and invested in local issues. It also
provides a very real and achievable local policy which will have an impact upon their
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
All Respondents
Party ID:
Conservative
Labour
UKIP
16. 16
lives, no matter how modest we might believe it is. The best way to re-establish trust
with voters means moving away from what is perceived as “national, ambitious and
unrealistic” to “local, modest and achievable”. Every policy we have should be translated
into locally tangible messages for activists on the doorsteps. Of course this is not always
easy; however if trust is to be re-established, we must provide concrete evidence of
how our policies will make a difference in people’s lives.
Ipsos MORI’s Political Monitor collects data on which party electors believe has the best
policies on a range of issues. As figure 8 shows, the Labour Party held a clear lead on the
issues of healthcare (36% to the Conservatives’ 21% and UKIP’s 1%) and housing (34%
to the Conservatives’ 21% and UKIP’s 1%) in September 2014. However, UKIP scores
well on both immigration and the EU, and while at least 1 in 5 respondents thought they
were the best party on either of these issues, fewer than 1 in 20 thought they had the
best policies on any other issue.
Figure 8: Party with best policy on key issues:
Data from Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, September 2014
This suggests that UKIP struggles to compete with the Labour Party on issues such as
healthcare and housing, or indeed on education, unemployment or benefits though we
are competing more closely with the Conservatives in these areas. Concerns about
immigration are often framed in terms of other issues, particularly concerns for housing,
healthcare and other local services. As we consistently perform better on these issues,
this offers our campaigners the chance to address immigration in terms of these areas
where we offer policies that make a tangible difference to the lives of some of the most
disadvantaged electors across the country.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Unemployment
Taxation
Managing the economy
Housing
Healthcare
EU
Education
Defence
Crime
Benefits
Asylum and immigration
Labour
Conservatives
Lib Dems
UKIP
17. 17
Furthermore, when supporters of the major parties are asked what policies attract them
to these parties, there is a clear difference between the Labour Party and UKIP. As table
3 shows, while UKIP supporters are mainly attracted by their policies on asylum and
immigration, Labour Party supporters report that our healthcare and education policies
helped them decide to vote Labour. Healthcare is also the most important issues for
anti-Conservative (but not anti-Labour) electors. Finally, unemployment is a more
important issue for Labour supporters than those of any of the other parties:
Table 3: Issues helping electors decide which party to vote for, by voting intention:
Total 2015 Voting Intention Against
Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP Conservative Labour
Sample size 1010 269 293 68 118 591 567
Managing the
economy 31% 45% 28% 29% 26% 28% 36%
Asylum and
immigration 30% 35% 22% 24% 64% 29% 35%
Healthcare 29% 22% 40% 26% 22% 34% 25%
Education 23% 17% 32% 32% 16% 28% 20%
Benefits 13% 10% 15% 13% 13% 14% 12%
Foreign policy 12% 13% 14% 15% 7% 12% 12%
EU 10% 13% 8% 7% 24% 10% 13%
Unemployment 10% 6% 14% 4% 7% 12% 8%
Taxation 8% 10% 9% 10% 6% 8% 9%
Pensions 6% 6% 8% 6% 4% 6% 5%
Data from Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, September 2014
Across a diverse electorate, the Labour Party cannot win on all issues with all electors,
so a carefully targeted campaign needs to prioritise those issues that are important to
the Party and potential supporters. This is particularly true in our fight against UKIP, as
potential UKIP voters are a politically and socially heterogeneous group. We must ensure
our campaign efforts on those electors are focussed on those most sympathetic to the
Labour Party and on the issues that may win their vote.
4.3 Immigration
Once we have re-established a dialogue with voters, Labour is in a position to introduce
policy into conversations. Labour recognises that immigration is important for Britain,
but it needs to be controlled and managed, so the system is fair. Both Ed Miliband and
Yvette Cooper have acknowledged the last Labour Government got some things wrong
on immigration, including not introducing transitional controls for new countries joining
the EU. Over the last four years, Labour has set out a new approach, which includes
introducing stronger border controls to count people in and out and new border checks
to tackle illegal immigration.
Labour is building on its work in government to enforce the minimum wage, and stop
unscrupulous employers using cheaper workers from overseas to undercut local wages
and jobs. Labour has also committed to banning agencies that only recruit from abroad
18. 18
and making serious exploitation of workers a criminal offence. We also know people
want to see fair rules enforced, so Labour will stop child benefit and child tax credits
being paid to children living abroad, make it easier to deport foreign criminals and, to
stop our communities being divided, improve the standards of English language for
those working in public services.
Immigration is the issue people most often cite when explaining support for UKIP, either
their own or that of communities and electors more generally, and the polling data as
displayed in Figure 8 and Table 3 illustrate clearly why. It does not however follow that
that campaigning on immigration issues and emphasising our policies in our
conversations with electors is always the correct response.
As a political party, we are more effective at changing what is discussed and debated
(the salience of the issues), as opposed to changing what may be long-held and
entrenched opinions of each party or views on which party has the best policies on each
issue. For example, in autumn 2013 we saw a sharp rise in the salience of energy prices
in the wake of Ed’s policy announcement at Annual Conference and the integrated
campaigns we ran in the weeks and months that followed. More recently, we have seen
a substantial increase in the salience of the NHS.
Following from this, when we embark on policy messaging around immigration, which is
not an area where Labour has the strongest lead over other parties, we should ensure
that this messaging is always done in conjunction with other policy areas. The purpose
of this is to raise the salience of those issues in which Labour has a much clearer lead
and stands to benefit more from their prominence with the electorate. This is especially
true when messaging comes from the local candidate and local party, where the
magnitude of this effect may be greatest.
4.4 Issue choice
The Labour Party has commissioned polling by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
(GQRR) to test the top issues among different groups of electors. Table 4 shows that
Older Traditionalists, who are more likely to vote for UKIP, are also most likely to select
immigration as one of the two most important issues for them. This concern for
immigration is often framed around other issues (such as local housing, healthcare or
other services) where the Labour Party tends to be rated more highly. This is closely
followed by the NHS, which is also considered a key issue for the majority of Older
Traditionalist electors. However, unlike other electors who have traditionally supported
the Labour Party, they are more likely to be concerned about crime than unemployment:
Table 4: Top 3 most important issues for Labour Party supporters:
All Traditional Labour Supporters Older Traditionalist Labour Supporters
1 Immigration (59%) Immigration (59%)
2 NHS (53%) NHS (53%)
3 Unemployment (23%) Crime (23%)
Data from GQRR Polling for the Labour Party
This polling has also suggested that messages on freezing energy bills and a 10 pence
starting rate of tax are well received among Older Traditionalist electors, as well as with
19. 19
Labour supporters in general. When asked which two policies, out of a list of eight
Labour policies, were most likely to make them voter Labour, both of these were
selected by at least a third of each group. However, Older Traditionalist electors
favoured our policy to raise the top rate of tax to 50 pence rather than our pledge to
abolish the bedroom tax, which was more popular among Labour supporters in general:
Table 5: Top 3 best received policies10
among Labour Party supporters:
All Traditional Labour Supporters Older Traditionalist Labour Supporters
1 Freeze your gas and electricity bills until 2017, and stand up to energy companies
2 Cut tax for 24 million working people by introducing a lower 10p starting rate of tax
3 Abolish the Bedroom Tax Get the deficit down more fairly, by raising
the top rate of tax from 45p back to 50p for
people earning over £150,000
Data from GQRR Polling for the Labour Party
It is important to note that whilst at the national level these are the most important
issues for Labour Party supporters the pattern for each constituency may be somewhat
different, depending on local dynamics and the demographic composition of the seat.
One important by-produce of local campaigning is that the Party in your constituency is
best-placed to judge which issues are most salient with voters. An effective local
campaign should work as a continuous feedback loop, whereby local issues are raised by
residents, logged by the campaign, met with policy responses and assessed for
effectiveness.
5. Your constituency
Included with this document are a table of polling districts where our models indicate
the highest % of electors whose demographic profile most looks like those of voters
that have or are considering switching from Labour to UKIP, and an A3 map of the same
data at a full postcode level. This, in combination with Contact Creator, should provide all
of the data that you need to successfully execute a targeted local campaign in your
constituency.
5.1 Local election results
UKIP’s recent electoral success, particularly in the 2014 European elections, has led to
the increased focus on the threat they may pose in 2015. While UKIP has made notable
gains in many areas of the country, local election results cannot be assumed to be easy
and accurate position of a party’s performance in a General Election. While the lower
turnout and lower significance attached to these elections make it difficult to use local
results to directly predict the General Election, ward-level results can help identify which
electors are willing to cast their vote in favour of UKIP.
10
Respondents could select two issues. The most consistently popular policies (the NHS and National
Minimum Wage) were not included in this polling.
20. 20
5.2 Demographics in question
Across Britain, approximately 23% of the population falls into the four ‘Older
Traditionalist’ Mosaic groups. It is Labour supporters in these groups (D, E, L and M) that
risk being particularly susceptible to the political appeal of UKIP. In constituencies where
UKIP support is trending upwards, there tend to be a higher proportion of electors in
Mosaic groups D, and a slightly higher proportion of electors in Group E, than the
national average. These groups tend to be less persuadable for Labour. However,
electors in Mosaic groups L and M are generally more persuadable to Labour, provided
we reach out to them with the right message in the right medium. They form the
foundation of potential Labour-UKIP switchers that we advise focussing on.
The threat of switching to UKIP among these Mosaic groups must to be addressed, but
we cannot assume that one message alone will address the range of issues that provoke
Older Traditionalists and electors who would otherwise tend to support the Labour Party
to drift to UKIP. In particular, the cultural attachment to the Labour Party that exists in
many communities with large numbers of Older Traditionalist electors means there are
better suited to the “More Tory than the Tories” message against UKIP and Nigel Farage.
Conversely, such a message is less likely to work amongst younger UKIP switchers who
have little or no memory of the Thatcher and Major governments.
5.3 Finding Labour-UKIP switchers in your constituency
Our 2015 targeting strategy in relation to UKIP aims to identify, target and win over the
Labour-leaning UKIP vote. It is therefore focussed on locating Labour-leaning UKIP
support, as opposed to UKIP support in general. However, these electors are not a
homogenous group and therefore, the model employed to predict the likelihood of an
elector being a Labour-UKIP switcher uses a range of demographic characteristics.
Nonetheless, the differences within this group of Labour-UKIP switchers must be
considered when deciding which messages should be used in your constituency.
Using polling data collected on our behalf by GQRR since 2013, we employ a statistical
model to estimate the precise demographic signature of the Labour-leaning UKIP
elector. Coupled with our own voter ID records, this gives us access to a unique
combination of data which we can use to identify and target Labour-UKIP switchers in
your constituency.
To build the model to identify which demographic characteristics best predict these
electors, we draw on a poll of over 24,000 respondents which includes both voting
intention data and demographic data. The specific definition of the Labour-leaning UKIP
target elector is as follows:
a) Voted Labour in 2010 and intends to vote UKIP now;
b) Intends to Vote UKIP now but states that they have a good chance of voting
Labour, and a fair or no chance of voting Tory;
c) Intends to Vote UKIP now but states that they have a fair chance of voting
Labour, and no chance of voting Tory; or
d) Intend to vote Labour but report a good chance of voting UKIP.
These groups of electors should be targeted to secure their support for the Labour
Party. UKIP supporters who have little or no chance of voting Labour are not the main
focus of our election campaign.
21. 21
Using the key demographic characteristics of age, gender, ethnicity, educational
attainment, Mosaic group and Type and geographical region, we have predicted which
electors fall into our target group. This offers greater predictive ability than using a
single factor such as Mosaic group. However, since Mosaic also reflects many of the
other cultural and demographic characteristics included in the model, our model tends to
predict that the most likely Labour-UKIP switchers fall into Mosaic groups L and M (‘Older
Traditionalists’) and I and J (traditionally the focus of our Get Out The Vote campaigns).
Using this model we are able to generate a probability score for each elector in the
entire country, and predict their individual likelihood of falling into one of our four target
groups (points a to d above). From this, we can determine the mixture of characteristics
possessed by the person with the highest score from our model (and thus most likely to
be a Labour-UKIP switcher) and the lowest model score (so the least likely to be a
Labour-UKIP switcher).
This data is live in the Contact Creator system and instructions on accessing it will be
provided later on in the document.
Table 6: Characteristics of most and least likely Labour-UKIP switchers:
Highest model score
(Most likely to be Labour-UKIP
switchers)
Lowest model score
(Least likely to be Labour-UKIP
switchers)
White Black
Male Female
Aged 47-66 Aged 37-46
Further education–not university University educated
Mosaic Type 42– ‘Worn Out Workers’:
Older workers employed in low skilled
work or unemployed or low prospects
Mosaic Type 37– ‘First to Move In’:
People living in the most recently built
brand new housing
Lives in Yorkshire Lives in Scotland
Electors identified as switchers tend to respond particularly well to our policies on the
energy bill freeze, reducing the starting rate of tax and increasing the top rate of tax.
Campaigns highlighting these policies should therefore be the main focus of our
campaigns to secure their support in these areas. Keep in mind that messaging should,
wherever possible be as locally targeted and as tangible to voters as possible. A well-
delivered campaign would take flagship policies, such as Labour’s promise to freeze
energy bills and translate them from a national message to a local one, for example:
“Labour’s energy bill freeze will reduce the average electricity bill in Buckingham by
£153 a year–just do the maths!” with locally tailored electricity bill graphic showing the
amount an elector would save calculated below. Similarly, with “More Tory than the
Tories” style messaging, this should also be framed in local terms, e.g.: “Remember what
the Tories did to this constituency”, connecting the message to the locality and the
electors themselves.
For those Labour-UKIP switchers for whom the ‘More Tory than the Tories’ message is
unlikely to work (particularly electors in Mosaic groups I and J) it is important to talk
about how a Labour government will work for them and their families. Campaigns
22. 22
should focus on how national Labour policies, such as our commitment to cut tax for 24
million working people by introducing a lower 10 pence starting rate of tax, will improve
their daily lives. It is important to make the impact of our national policies as tangible as
possible so people both know about our commitment to creating a fairer society across
Britain and how this will help them personally.
5.4 Contact rates
As contact rates have been found to be positively correlated with higher vote shares in
both our own internal and external academic research, it is crucial that local campaigns
work on the doorstep to win the support of electors. As of Friday 14 November, on
average, 8% of the electorate nationally had been contacted in 2014 by the Labour
Party. This is compared to an average contact rate of 21% in 2014 in our key seats.
Table 7: Contact rates across Britain:
Last 4 weeks This year Since 2010 Electorate Annual contact rate
All constituencies 434 6,229 17,018 73,468 8%
Key Seats 1,335 15,149 31,957 73,741 21%
Data from the 1st
of November.
Contact rates for your own constituency can be found on the front page
of your Contact Creator.
23. 23
6. Turning this into effective local campaigning
Constituency campaigning allows you to engage with electors at the local level, and it is
only through such efforts that we can show how our national policies will make an
impact on their everyday lives.
UKIP has benefited from a disenchantment with Westminster politics and the best way
to combat this is to ensure that you and your local party are a regular presence in
people’s lives through year-round campaigning, and to make it clear how our policies on
issues such as the NHS, the cost of living crisis and a fairer tax system will have a real
and tangible impact– expressed in terms as specific and local to electors as possible.
Effective local campaigning on these issues will help to ensure that the Labour Party
and Labour MPs are always in touch with– and perceived to be in touch with– the lives
and concern of our electors.
6.1 Addressing issues on the doorstep
While it is clear that UKIP’s campaign is largely concentrated on the issue of immigration,
we cannot and should not fight the UKIP threat simply on their terms, not least because
we will not win a bidding war on the issue. Although immigration is an important issue
for many electors, and is often mentioned on the doorstep, it is often used as a means to
express other concerns. Many of these issues, including healthcare, housing, and the
delivery of other local services, are among the strongest policy areas for the Labour
Party.
Volunteers and activists must understand and acknowledge electors’ concerns about
immigration on the doorstep, which will mean hearing opinions that may not gel with
their own. In these cases, it’s important to remember that first phase of re-establishing
trust is to listen and understand. Keep in mind too that there may well be some voters
who, with the best will in the world, we are unlikely to bring back from UKIP. It’s
nonetheless essential that we leave them with a positive impression of the Labour
Party, to avoid cementing them in their views and thus their voting patterns. Our focus
must instead be moving the conversation on to issues where we have clear policy which
tackles the problems people are worried about, whether they express those concerns
through the prism of immigration or not. In summary, campaigners should acknowledge
concerns and contextualise the problem as something that Labour has a clear plan to
improve.
Our three-pronged approach covers both local and national campaigning, national and
local media appearances and the delivery of our messages in print and on the doorstep:
not all messages need be used at once in each and every channel with each and every
elector.
We must:
1. reassure electors that we understand concerns they raise on immigration and are
proposing policies to ensure effective integration;
2. deliver a clear message on the threat that Farage poses. Above all, we must
remind potential UKIP supporters of the threat UKIP poses to the NHS in their
local area and encourage them to think more about this, and other areas of
Labour Party policy, than immigration; and
24. 24
3. champion a locally-driven alternative Labour agenda which engages with the
underlying frustration people feel about the way Britain is run, and remind people
seeking change in their lives that this is far more likely to come from a Labour
government than from UKIP.
6.2 Briefing and equipping local activists
The importance of doorstep campaigning in the fight against UKIP means that all
activists taking part in local campaigning should be fully briefed on our UKIP messaging.
This will allow activists to confidently engage with potential UKIP supporters on the
doorstep, making your campaign more effective. We are developing model UKIP briefings
and resources for activists on Membersnet that should be tailored with local examples
and relevant information for your constituency.
The Labour Party has a long tradition of positive and engaged local campaigning. It is
crucial, especially in areas where regular doorstep activity is less well established, that
these values are upheld. While it is tough, sometimes impossible, to change minds on the
doorstep, listening carefully and taking the time to show that we understand where an
elector is coming from on issues is very likely to have a far more positive impact than
challenging them directly. Through this, we demonstrate our respect for their views and
concerns; something that is particularly important given that the established political
parties appear to be less popular than ever.
6.3 Establishing on-going relationships
Politics has always been about personal relationships and hard work. Campaigns need to
focus their efforts on building (or rebuilding) relationships. Not only that, but if they are
to last, like any relationship, they must be committed to over the long term– not just
during election season. Policy and messaging are crucial parts of any campaign, and we
believe that we have a strong platform for your constituency; however it is equally
important to ensure that relationships between voters and the local Party are both
strong and based on mutual respect and trust.
Contact with electors should never be such that it is perceived as a one-off event, as we
need to establish ongoing relationships with all of our electors, and above all with our
supporters. We must make it clear to them that we are interested in understanding and
addressing their individual concerns, not just securing their vote at election time. When
a UKIP switcher is identified on the doorstep, this should be followed up by:
1. A follow up call from the candidate within two weeks.
This should set out the case for Labour and highlight our key UKIP messages: UKIP are
more Tory than the Tories, and they would prop up David Cameron and keep the Tories
in power.
2. A direct mail two weeks after the candidate call.
This should be based on the direct mail we have designed to focus on our core message,
available on the Campaign Resource Centre. You should tailor the text to include locally
relevant examples and information.
3. A commitment to continue the communication if elected.
Pledge to make personal contact on a regular basis if elected.
25. 25
6.4 Core messaging resources
Immigration is a complex issue, on which the Labour Party has a series of policies
designed to address legitimate concerns. Once explained and the context surrounding
the issue made clear, our policies tend to be accepted as common sense. However,
writing to electors proactively (i.e.: without evidence the elector is concerned about it)
about immigration risks undermining the broad coalition of support we need to return to
government, for the following reasons:
• as a general rule, a higher salience for the issue does not translate into electoral
advantage for us; and
• we do not have much data collected in many UKIP target areas. Even with the best
models we can develop, this means we will inevitably be hitting some people for whom it
is unhelpful to raise the salience of immigration as an issue.
That said, there are electors for whom immigration is already a very high salience issue,
who already plan to vote UKIP. For these electors, the issue needs to be addressed:
there is no longer a risk of making it worse with that group. As always, it is preferable to
first of all establish a relationship with such voters before discussing policy in detail.
However this may not always be possible or desirable.
Our advice is therefore that we should:
(a) listen carefully to electors’ concerns on immigration on the doorstep and engage
with their views before moving the conversation on to how Labour would tackle
the issues they have raised (whether they be housing, education, the NHS, etc.).
We should acknowledge electors’ concerns and contextualise the problem as
something that Labour has a clear plan to improve;
(b) focus our messaging on our key policies that will have improve the lives of
electors, their families and their communities for those people who we estimate
to be likely Labour/UKIP switchers, but who we do not know for certain that they
intend to vote for UKIP. For these electors we do not have Voter ID information
identifying a UKIP intention, we should talk about our policies in terms that make
sense locally and make it clear how a Labour government will have a tangible
effect on their lives; and
(c) face the issue of immigration directly with identified UKIP supporters. With
electors who have already indicated that they intend to vote for UKIP, we should
set out our immigration policy clearly and explain how it resolves the issues
people raise while forming part of our wider package of changes to how Britain
works to make Britain fairer and more prosperous for everyone.
Our campaign shop offers a range of campaign materials designed specifically to combat
the threat of UKIP among traditional Labour supporters. Using pre-prepared materials
will allow you to focus your resources and time on campaigning and engaging electors,
rather than copywriting and design. However, as there is a range of products designed
to be used in the fight against UKIP, the most appropriate materials should be selected
according to the electors you are targeting in any specific area.
All of these leaflets can be purchased through our Campaign Shop at:
https://shop.labour.org.uk/https://shop.labour.org.uk/https://shop.labour.org.uk/https://shop.labour.org.uk/
26. 26
Nationally produced NHS materials highlight the risk UKIP poses to the NHS. These are
likely to be especially effective with Older Traditionalist electors:
Leaflets emphasizing the political position of UKIP– more Tory than the Tories– are
especially useful for those electors whom you know have previously voted Labour or
who would chose the Labour Party over the Conservatives:
27. 27
For those electors who either do not remember the Thatcher/Major governments, these
messages are likely to be less effective. We are currently working on developing a series
of materials aimed at potential Labour-UKIP switchers who do not fall into the category
of ‘Older Traditionalist’ electors. However, the campaign shop already offers a range of
leaflets highlighting how our policies will improve the lives of those struggling under the
Coalition government. This includes our jobs guarantee:
And our commitment to getting a fairer deal for renters:
28. 28
6.5 Identifying UKIP switchers
We’ve built a number of selections to help you use these materials and for you to target
direct mail messaging. These selections are based on models using data we have
collected on electors, their previous voting habits, their demographic characteristics and
the communities in which they live. This wealth of information is central to our
predictions of which traditional (or potential) Labour supporters are most likely to
considering voting for UKIP.
These selections have names beginning “UKIP-susceptible– likely Labour” to make them
as easy as possible to find within Contact Creator. They are marked as being built by a
user named “National Campaigns”. This shows the selections that have been built using
the full set of political and demographic data held centrally. These selections should be
used to identify recipients of anti-UKIP mailings to electors.
The drop-down menu on the front page of the Contact Creator website allows you to
generate a list of direct mail recipients aimed at those electors whom our model
suggests may be UKIP-Labour switchers:
From the same drop down menu you can also select “UKIP-susceptible-likely Labour
(doorstep)” which will allow you to quickly and easily generate Voter ID sheets for areas
within your constituency, showing all electors in the area with whom you should be
communicating, but with a clear identifying mark on the sheets for those who are
thought likely to be UKIP-Labour switchers based on a sophisticated national model.
29. 29
The direct mail report can be also accessed through the “Run Report” tab at the top of
the Contact Creator web page. If required, you can also search for this report using the
search term “UKIP*” in the search box at the top of the page:
30. 30
You can get more information and assistance about Contact Creator by calling the
Campaign and Technology Support Team on 0845 092 2299 or emailing
campaigntechnology@labour.org.uk.
Our Win 2015 voter ID script is also designed to help local activists gain important
information about the political sympathies of electors. As well as asking who they are
intending to vote for in the 2015 General Election, we are also collecting information on
electors’ previous voting habits and the Labour-Conservative choice through two
questions in particular:
Question 2: At the last General Election in 2010, which party did you vote for?
This question helps us to identify electors who currently support UKIP and who have
previously voted for the Labour Party. They are likely to be susceptible to messages
highlighting Labour’s policies on the NHS.
Question 3: Would you prefer a Labour government to a Conservative
government?
This question helps us to identify those electors who may not have previously voted
Labour but who would chose the Labour Party in a straight fight with the Conservatives.
It will also highlight those electors who may be particularly susceptible to campaigns
highlighting the political position of UKIP: more Tory than the Tories.
The full voter ID script can also be found in Appendix C and at the Campaign Shop
website.
6.5 Monitoring local UKIP activity
Monitoring local UKIP activity will play a key part in Labour’s attack and rebuttal work
against UKIP. Statements by UKIP candidates and councillors and copy on UKIP
campaign materials can be used in counter-UKIP campaigning at the local and national
level. Therefore, all local parties should collect any UKIP materials distributed in your
constituency, and monitor the social media accounts of UKIP candidates and councillors.
Please send all UKIP leaflets and any relevant UKIP social media activity to
research@labour.org.uk.
Campaigns should also keep an eye on the Election Leaflets website, where you can
select your seat to see which leaflets are being distributed locally. See here:
www.electionleaflets.org
31. 31
Appendix A: Mosaic groups and Types
Mosaic group Description
A Alpha Territory People with substantial wealth who live in the most sought
after neighbourhoods
B Professional Rewards Experienced professionals in successful careers enjoying
financial comfort in suburban or semi-rural homes
C Rural Solitude Residents of small villages and isolated homes where farming
and tourism are economic mainstays
D Small Town Diversity Residents of small and medium-sized towns who have strong
roots in their local community
E Active Retirement Elders who have sufficient pensions and savings to choose
pleasant locations in which to enjoy their retirement
F Suburban Mind-sets Maturing families on mid-range incomes living a moderate
lifestyle in suburban semis
G Careers and Kids Families with young children where both parents are likely to
earn solid incomes providing for a comfortable modern home
H New Homemakers Young singles and couples in small modern starter homes
I Ex-Council Communities Residents with low levels of education but sufficient incomes
who live in the better right-to-buy council houses
J Claimant Cultures Families reliant on benefits living in low-rise council housing
where there is widespread disadvantage
K Upper Floor Living Young, mostly single people on limited incomes renting small
flats from local councils
L Elderly Needs Elderly people who are reliant on support either through
specialised accommodation or the basic state pension
M Industrial Heritage Families and couples owning affordable older style housing in
communities historically dependent on manufacturing
N Terraced Melting Pot Lower income workers, mostly young, living in tightly packed
inner urban terraces, including some areas of high diversity
O Liberal Opinions Young, well-educated city dwellers enjoying the vibrancy and
diversity of urban life
32. 32
Appendix B: Key features of Mosaic groups
Group
Key Features
1 2 3 4 5
A Successful Rewarding careers Substantial wealth Influential Wealthy foreign nationals
B Suburban Executives and managers Small businesses Senior positions Significant equity
C Small villages Isolated farmhouses Community spirit Farmers Small businesses
D Strong roots Lower incomes Mostly mature Home improvement Mixed ages and housing
E Retired Seaside Bought a smaller property Bungalow Pensions
F Manual and white collar Married Middle age Children Leafy suburbs
G Families Young children Good incomes Comfortable homes Home life balance
H Young people Single professionals Some couples with children Setting up home New starter homes
I Council tenants Right to buy Comfortable lifestyles Few qualifications Hard workers
J Disadvantaged Dependent on state Low incomes Unemployment Long term illness
K Young singles Low incomes Renting small public flats High unemployment Sickness
L Older people Retired Public rented Nursing homes TV and newspapers
M Traditional Married Below average incomes Approaching retirement Outgrown homes
N Poor qualifications Routine occupations Young singles and couples Some young children Ethnic diversity
O Young singles Students Degree level education Creative jobs Vibrancy