WaterSmart Data Scientist Will Holleran analyzed how Californians have been reacting to the drought and the new drought restrictions. He found that households respond to messaging at the local level but aren’t as responsive to state-wide messaging, and that mandatory restrictions work in pushing households to save water. He suggests that instead of funding large state-wide campaigns, we should provide funding to local water suppliers for them to educate their customers.He also found that higher users and those with larger lots are not responding to messaging as strongly as others. This is likely because they tend to be more affluent and not price sensitive. We need to work on engagement with those households, and that’s where social comparisons can be particularly effective.

1. Engage. Save. Smile.
William Holleran, Data Scientist
wholleran@watersmartsoftware.com
WATERSMART SOFTWARE

2. Bio
• Masters in Applied Econometrics
• Specialized in Regression Based Modeling
(Specifically Logistic and Fixed Effects Regression
Models)
• Learned about social comparison and demand
response programs through years of evaluation work
on energy efficiency programs.
• Apply those evaluation techniques to internal metrics
at WaterSmart
• Design experiments and research projects to
improve the efficacy of WaterSmart’s program
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3. Home Water
Report
Contents
• WaterScore
• Water use in GPD
• Comparative consumption
• Personalized
water-saving actions
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4. California’s Response to the Drought
Region • Who is responding to drought messaging, and what
influences their response?
• Production level data showing 5% decrease
• State Water Board Survey (July 2014)
• Details production level data for most utilities in CA
• Responses on drought related activities that each
utility has taken
• Using Consumption level data for residential households
we can isolate the response and match that up with the
survey level data.
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5. Regulatory Timeline
Jan 17, 2014
Governor Brown Declares
Drought State of
Emergency
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6. Regulatory Timeline
Jan 17, 2014
Governor Brown Declares
Drought State of
Emergency
April 15, 2014
Governor Brown Issues
Executive Order to
Redouble State Drought
Actions
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7. Regulatory Timeline
Jul 15, 2014
State Water Board
Adopts Emergency
Conservation Regulations
“…mandatory restrictions
on outdoor irrigation…”
Or seek approval for
“an alternate plan that
includes allocation-based
rate structures”
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8. WaterSmart California Dataset (July 2014)
Region • Clients that partner with WaterSmart transfer all of their
residential billing data for the past 5 years.
• Usage data for ~ 5% of households within California
• Time period used for this analysis: Jan 2011-July 2014
(bimonthly readings)
• Apply conversion script to convert data from billing periods
to calendar months and create full panel dataset
• Match with property database to acquire age of the home,
lot-size, number of bedrooms, etc.
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9. State Water Board Survey (July 2014)
Region
• Survey Responses from 276 out of 440 Water Suppliers in
California
• Questions include:
• Total water production by month (2011-2013 average)
and 2014.
• Drought response activities
• Forecasted shortages
• Aggregate analysis indicates 5% savings through May 2014
when compared to the average usage over the same period
from 2011-2013.
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10. • San Francisco (4,470 sq.mi.):
The drainage into the Pacific
Ocean from the Stemple
Creek Basin boundary to and
including the Pescadero
Creek Basin.
• South Coast (11,100 sq.mi.):
The drainage within the US
that discharges into the
Pacific Ocean from the
Rincon Creek Basin boundary
to the California-Baja
California international
boundary.
• Sacramento River (27,600
sq.mi.): The Sacramento
River Basin and drainage into
Goose Lake.
• San Joaquin (15,600 sq.mi):
The San Joaquin River Basin.
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11. Significant Variation between Production and
Consumption Based Analyses
(Production Data from State Water Board Survey and Residential Consumption Data
from WaterSmart)
Hydrologic
Region
Production
Data
Consumption
Data
San
Francisco 8.7% 12.2%
South Coast -6.3% 0.2%
Sacramento
River
13.0% 16.1%
San Joaquin
River 26.4% 5.2%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
Statewide
(Sample) 5.0% 9.3% 0.0%
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5.0%
Production
Data
Consumption
Data
% Savings calculated using Feb
– July Data

12. Response by Usage Groups
(Evaluation of WaterInsightProgram)
TREATMENT EFFECT (%)
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NO CHANGE
Lowest
Users
Highest
Users
Analysis by Daniel Brent, Univ. of Washington, June 2012

13. Top Water Users Slower to Reduce Consumption
Top quartile versus bottom 3 quartiles
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25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Hydrologic
Region
Q1-Q3 Q4
San Francisco 15.9% 10.1%
South Coast 7.1% -8.1%
Sacramento
River
20.4% 18.1%
San Joaquin
River
7.4% 2.4%
Central Coast 20.5% 4.9%
Statewide
(Sample)
13.8% 4.5%
Quartiles calculated using 2011-
2013 average Gallons Per Day

14. Lot Size not a Significant Driver of Variation, Top
quartile versus bottom 3 quartiles
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25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Hydrologic
Region
Q1-Q3 Q4
San Francisco 13.0% 13.2%
South Coast 4.2% -9.0%
Sacramento
River
19.7% 17.8%
San Joaquin
River
5.1% 4.8%
Statewide
(Sample)
11.6% 7.9%
Quartiles calculated using
property data for each
household within each water
supplier’s region

15. Positive Correlation Between Drought Response
Actions and Savings
Region
Water Supplier Action Correlation
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with Savings
Drought Pricing 0.38
Mandatory Restrictions 0.46
Increased Enforcement
and Monitoring
0.14
Drought Stage 0.71
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Drought
Pricing
Mandatory
Restrictions
Increased
enforcement
and
monitoring
Drought Stage

16. Water Suppliers that have Enacted Mandatory
Restrictions have Higher Savings
Region
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25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Enacted Mandatory
Restrictions
No Mandatory Restrictions
Action Cumulative Savings
since Jan 17th
Enacted Mandatory
Restrictions 13.4%
No Mandatory Restrictions 2.8%
Types of mandatory restrictions:
• Restrictions on outdoor use
(e.g. limited irrigation
schedules)
• Prohibitions on runoff into street
and gutters
• Rationing
• Customer Leak Repair
Requirement

17. Suppliers at Higher Drought Stage Levels Show
Increased Savings
Region
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25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
Stage 0 Stage 1 Stage 2
Utility Plan Stage Cumulative Savings
since Jan 17th
Stage 0 -0.1%
Stage 1 8.9%
Stage 2 18.4%
Drought stages are declared at the water
supplier level in response to conditions in
their region. Higher stages indicate a
greater number of restrictions which can
very based on each supplier’s drought
plan.

18. More Conservation Actions Taken by a Utility Lead
to Greater Reductions
Region
Drought Response
Actions
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% Savings
0 1.8%
1 6.2%
2 9.6%
3 21.7%
4 18.7%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
0 1 2 3 4
Number of actions determined by
aggregating utility actions: drought pricing,
mandatory restrictions, increased
enforcement and monitoring, and the
drought stage.

19. PPIC Survey of Residential Households in
California
Region
Data Set: 1,705 Adult Residents of California surveyed via phone (March
2014)
• “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of
a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California?”
• Do you think that the water supply that is available for your part of
California will be adequate or inadequate for what is needed ten years
from now?
• The legislature is considering an approximately $11.1 billion dollar
bond measure for the November 2014 ballot to pay for state water
projects. If the election were being held today, would you vote yes or
no on this state water bond?
• Would you say that you and your family have taken steps to reduce
water use recently in response to the current drought?
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20. Converting Survey Q’s to Binary Variables
• “Would you say that the supply of water is a big problem, somewhat of
Region
a problem, or not much of a problem in your part of California?”
• If “big problem”, SupplyProblem = 1
• Do you think that the water supply that is available for your part of
California will be adequate or inadequate for what is needed ten years
from now?
• If “inadequate”, TenYrSupplyInadequate = 1
• The legislature is considering an approximately $11.1 billion dollar
bond measure for the November 2014 ballot to pay for state water
projects. If the election were being held today, would you vote yes or
no on this state water bond?
• If “yes”, ProWaterBond = 1
• Would you say that you and your family have taken steps to reduce
water use recently in response to the current drought?
• If “yes”, Conserver = 1
• Merge with usage data.
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21. Regression Results
• Regions with perceived local supply issues have responded stronger
than those without.
• Other survey-based variables insignificant
Variable (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)
SupplyProblem 0.3548*
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(0.2185)
- - - 0.4274*
(0.2219)
WaterBondImportant - -.09903
(0.2150)
- - -0.2274
(0.2211)
Conserver - - 0.1029
(0.2157)
- 0.1873
(0.2174)
ProEnvironmental - - -
0.1708
(0.2151)
0.1397
(0.2188)
N 882 872 881 872 863
R-Squared 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Notes: (1) coefficient listed with SE in parenthesis. (2) * indicates coefficient is
significant at the p=0.10 level.

22. Final Thoughts
• Households respond to messaging at the local level, but aren’t
as responsive to state-wide messaging
• Instead of funding large state-wide campaigns, provide
funding to local water suppliers for them to educate their
customers.
• Mandatory restrictions work in pushing households to save
water.
• Higher users and those with larger lots are not responding
to messaging as strongly as others.
• Tend to be more affluent and not price sensitive
• Need to work on engagement with those households.
That’s where social comparisons can be particularly
effective.
WATERSMART SOFTWARE