Buhari 100 days in power: Macroeconomic Scorecard - july 29 to september 2 2015 channels tv news at 10 fdc presentation
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100 days into power, how do we assess Buhari's administration performance. --No named ministers --Few appointments --Boost in power generation --Slowdown in economic growth And a lot more This Scorecard captures the key macroeconomic indicators while considering human development factors.
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FDC Economic Bulletin
The Monetary Policy Committee made an audacious move by increasing the Monetary Policy Rate by 200 basis points to 14% to combat high inflation, contrary to market expectations that favored stimulating growth over inflation. Inflation had spiked to 16.5%, while the interest rate remained at 12%, fuelled by supply shocks and forex scarcity. The MPC highlighted its quest to achieve a positive rate of return to attract foreign investors and deepen the forex market in order to strengthen the Naira and temper rising input costs. However, tightening monetary policy during a recession risks plunging the economy further into recession through the paradox of thrift.
LBS April Presentation
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic conditions in March 2016. Key points include:
- Nigeria's economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter and is expected to grow only 2% in Q1 2016.
- Inflation spiked to a 34-month high of 11.4% due to forex shortages and fuel scarcity.
- Unemployment and underemployment rose sharply, especially among youth.
- The stock market and FAAC allocations declined while the "misery index" measuring inflation and unemployment increased.
- Regional and global factors like lower Chinese and commodity prices pose challenges for Nigeria's economic outlook.
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - August 2015: LOOT RECOVERY???- ...
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The CBN has come out with a rash of new regulations to defend the naira, the latest being the suspension of dollar cash deposits into domiciliary accounts in Nigeria. The naira has swung like a pendulum in the parallel market between N208 and N245. Most investors are deferring any decisions until there is some clarity, as to the Buhari economic direction.
Federal and state government officials have cut back on international travels and reckless expenditure, which has resulted in airline summer load factors dropping to 65%. Power supply from the grid is up at 4,800MW while airport immigration and customs officers are behaving themselves professionally.
In the meantime there has been a sharp lull in economic activity with retail sales of garments and electronics down to 30%. There is also the problem of 55% of flats in Lekki being vacant and rents likely to fall.
The impact of the uncertainty and slowdown on investment, output and profit margins is discussed in this edition of the August LBS Executive Breakfast session with B.J. Rewane and the FDC team.
Enjoy your read....LBS May 2016
The document provides an economic analysis and outlook for Nigeria and the global economy in May 2016. Some key points:
- Nigeria's GDP declined to 1.9% in Q1 2016 due to poor power supply and low oil production. Inflation spiked to 13.2% due to higher food and fuel prices. Unemployment is expected to increase to 30%.
- Globally, the IMF lowered its 2016 growth forecast to 3.2% due to weak conditions. The US saw slow growth of 0.5% in Q1. China's growth slowed slightly but remained within target at 6.7%. Sub-Saharan Africa growth is forecast at 3.3%.
- Domestically
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...
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Judged against the post-election feeling of enthusiasm and exhilaration on May 29, the current underwhelming feeling of the Nigerian elite appears bizarre and contradictory. Why are they feeling so despondent and anxious? Is this the natural sequence that follows long waiting periods and anticipation??
In spite of this crisis of false expectations, the macro-economic scorecard reveals a balanced performance with major successes in power supply, petrol queues, restructuring of the oil sector and restoring the international reputation and pride of Nigeria. The salary arrears and contractor debts have been regularised and leakages are being blocked. The building blocks are being laid slowly. The truth is that it is taking too long.
The administration has not come out with a clear economic policy or blueprint. This macro-economic ambiguity is borne out of the sheer gravity of the problems and the dilemma that the possible options throw up. The recent plunge in oil prices in August is aggravating a difficult situation.
The impact of this policy void is increasing the tentativeness of investors and is being exacerbated by the rash of administrative measures. The volatility in the Forex and interest rate markets is evidence of consumer and investor anxiety. A cabinet is likely to be announced in a few days and will douse most of these fears.
These are some of the burning questions addressed by Bismarck Rewane and his team of analysts, in this edition of the LBS breakfast session.Real Estate Vacancy Factor Index Slides April 2016
The document discusses rising vacancy rates and rents in the Lagos real estate market from January 2015 to March 2016. Some key points:
- The Vacancy Factor Index (VFIX) measuring vacancy rates in Ikoyi, Victoria Island, and Lekki neighborhoods increased 65% over 15 months, indicating vacant properties rose significantly.
- In March 2016, the residential and commercial sub-indexes of the VFIX were 177 and 148 respectively, increases of 77% and 48% from January 2015 levels.
- Rents remain high despite a large supply glut, potentially due to money laundering, corruption, and developers relying on family savings, pensions, and illicit income for funding.
- There is
Commodities update 17 may 2016
The document provides current commodity prices for various goods in three Nigerian cities - Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha. It then provides further details on commodity prices at different markets within Lagos and Kano, noting prices have remained stable. The document also discusses factors driving inflation in Nigeria, including fuel prices and supply issues, and their impact on food prices. Finally, it provides brief updates on movements in stock prices, oil prices, and agricultural commodity prices.
LBS August 2016
The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. Some key points:
- Expectations of economic recovery were dashed as the naira fell sharply, growth estimates declined, and power output remained low.
- Inflation jumped to 16.5% while business activity showed only marginal signs of recovery. Oil prices declined further, hurting government revenues.
- Global factors like slower growth in China, lower commodity prices, and cautious monetary policies in developed countries pose risks for Nigeria's economy.
- Domestic challenges include high inflation, fuel scarcity and price increases, and weak manufacturing activity, though some indicators showed slight improvements. The outlook remains uncertain.
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The Monetary Policy Committee made an audacious move by increasing the Monetary Policy Rate by 200 basis points to 14% to combat high inflation, contrary to market expectations that favored stimulating growth over inflation. Inflation had spiked to 16.5%, while the interest rate remained at 12%, fuelled by supply shocks and forex scarcity. The MPC highlighted its quest to achieve a positive rate of return to attract foreign investors and deepen the forex market in order to strengthen the Naira and temper rising input costs. However, tightening monetary policy during a recession risks plunging the economy further into recession through the paradox of thrift.
LBS April Presentation
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic conditions in March 2016. Key points include:
- Nigeria's economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter and is expected to grow only 2% in Q1 2016.
- Inflation spiked to a 34-month high of 11.4% due to forex shortages and fuel scarcity.
- Unemployment and underemployment rose sharply, especially among youth.
- The stock market and FAAC allocations declined while the "misery index" measuring inflation and unemployment increased.
- Regional and global factors like lower Chinese and commodity prices pose challenges for Nigeria's economic outlook.
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The CBN has come out with a rash of new regulations to defend the naira, the latest being the suspension of dollar cash deposits into domiciliary accounts in Nigeria. The naira has swung like a pendulum in the parallel market between N208 and N245. Most investors are deferring any decisions until there is some clarity, as to the Buhari economic direction.
Federal and state government officials have cut back on international travels and reckless expenditure, which has resulted in airline summer load factors dropping to 65%. Power supply from the grid is up at 4,800MW while airport immigration and customs officers are behaving themselves professionally.
In the meantime there has been a sharp lull in economic activity with retail sales of garments and electronics down to 30%. There is also the problem of 55% of flats in Lekki being vacant and rents likely to fall.
The impact of the uncertainty and slowdown on investment, output and profit margins is discussed in this edition of the August LBS Executive Breakfast session with B.J. Rewane and the FDC team.
Enjoy your read....LBS May 2016
The document provides an economic analysis and outlook for Nigeria and the global economy in May 2016. Some key points:
- Nigeria's GDP declined to 1.9% in Q1 2016 due to poor power supply and low oil production. Inflation spiked to 13.2% due to higher food and fuel prices. Unemployment is expected to increase to 30%.
- Globally, the IMF lowered its 2016 growth forecast to 3.2% due to weak conditions. The US saw slow growth of 0.5% in Q1. China's growth slowed slightly but remained within target at 6.7%. Sub-Saharan Africa growth is forecast at 3.3%.
- Domestically
Executive Breakfast Monthly Economic Review - September 2015: LOOT RECOVERY??...
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Judged against the post-election feeling of enthusiasm and exhilaration on May 29, the current underwhelming feeling of the Nigerian elite appears bizarre and contradictory. Why are they feeling so despondent and anxious? Is this the natural sequence that follows long waiting periods and anticipation??
In spite of this crisis of false expectations, the macro-economic scorecard reveals a balanced performance with major successes in power supply, petrol queues, restructuring of the oil sector and restoring the international reputation and pride of Nigeria. The salary arrears and contractor debts have been regularised and leakages are being blocked. The building blocks are being laid slowly. The truth is that it is taking too long.
The administration has not come out with a clear economic policy or blueprint. This macro-economic ambiguity is borne out of the sheer gravity of the problems and the dilemma that the possible options throw up. The recent plunge in oil prices in August is aggravating a difficult situation.
The impact of this policy void is increasing the tentativeness of investors and is being exacerbated by the rash of administrative measures. The volatility in the Forex and interest rate markets is evidence of consumer and investor anxiety. A cabinet is likely to be announced in a few days and will douse most of these fears.
These are some of the burning questions addressed by Bismarck Rewane and his team of analysts, in this edition of the LBS breakfast session.Real Estate Vacancy Factor Index Slides April 2016
The document discusses rising vacancy rates and rents in the Lagos real estate market from January 2015 to March 2016. Some key points:
- The Vacancy Factor Index (VFIX) measuring vacancy rates in Ikoyi, Victoria Island, and Lekki neighborhoods increased 65% over 15 months, indicating vacant properties rose significantly.
- In March 2016, the residential and commercial sub-indexes of the VFIX were 177 and 148 respectively, increases of 77% and 48% from January 2015 levels.
- Rents remain high despite a large supply glut, potentially due to money laundering, corruption, and developers relying on family savings, pensions, and illicit income for funding.
- There is
Commodities update 17 may 2016
The document provides current commodity prices for various goods in three Nigerian cities - Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha. It then provides further details on commodity prices at different markets within Lagos and Kano, noting prices have remained stable. The document also discusses factors driving inflation in Nigeria, including fuel prices and supply issues, and their impact on food prices. Finally, it provides brief updates on movements in stock prices, oil prices, and agricultural commodity prices.
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The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. Some key points:
- Expectations of economic recovery were dashed as the naira fell sharply, growth estimates declined, and power output remained low.
- Inflation jumped to 16.5% while business activity showed only marginal signs of recovery. Oil prices declined further, hurting government revenues.
- Global factors like slower growth in China, lower commodity prices, and cautious monetary policies in developed countries pose risks for Nigeria's economy.
- Domestic challenges include high inflation, fuel scarcity and price increases, and weak manufacturing activity, though some indicators showed slight improvements. The outlook remains uncertain.
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The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. It notes that June saw signs of economic inflection in Nigeria, including the disappearance of fuel queues, a rise in the oil price, and monetary policy reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria. However, GDP growth is still estimated to be negative for the full year. The outlook is positive but painful as Nigeria stumbles into economic reforms, with the exchange rate expected to find a new equilibrium around N295-N310 per dollar. Winners in the stock market will be companies able to source raw materials internationally and leverage parent companies.
MPC Decision in July
The Central Bank of Nigeria tightened its monetary policy rate to 14% annually in an effort to curb headline inflation which had risen to 16.5%. This rate hike aimed to increase dollar inflows to support the foreign exchange market, reduce external reserve depletion, boost national savings, and reduce regulatory arbitrage between banks and the CBN. In the short term, the higher interest rates were expected to lead to appreciation of the naira exchange rate against the dollar in both the interbank and parallel markets. However, inflation in Nigeria has largely been driven by supply shocks which may not respond to interest rate adjustments. The higher borrowing costs could also increase corporate failures, non-performing loans, and government debt service costs, inflicting
FDC Economic Bulletin July 18, 2016
Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
Vacancy Factor Index Up in June 2016
The Vacancy Factor Index for Q2 2016 came in at 72% for June, indicating a marginal rise in vacant properties in high-end neighborhoods of Lagos. The rise was expected given GDP contraction and high rental defaults. Vacancy rates were highest in Lekki, which also has the most developments but few uncompleted projects. Victoria Island had the lowest vacancy due to mixed commercial and residential use. Declines in the index are only expected when GDP and business conditions improve to boost demand.
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The document lists current commodity prices in three Nigerian cities - Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha. It shows the prices of items like cement, cassava, maize, flour, sugar, rice, palm oil, beans, semovita, and pasta. Domestic commodity prices have remained stable. The document also discusses rice imports, the quality of local rice, herdsmen threatening food security, and stock market performance.
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This document summarizes and discusses the distortions created by the Mercator map projection, which has been widely used in classrooms and shaped people's perceptions of world geography. While useful for navigation, the Mercator projection greatly exaggerates the size of countries in the northern hemisphere like Canada, Russia, Europe, and the US compared to their actual sizes. In contrast, Africa appears much smaller on the Mercator map than in reality. This distortion could have unintentionally promoted European imperialism by making Western nations seem more powerful. However, no map projection can perfectly represent the spherical earth on a flat surface without some distortions.
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Domestic commodity prices in Nigeria were mixed, with some prices like palm oil and maize rising slightly in Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha while others held steady. The naira closed at N330/$ in the interbank market. Consumer goods stocks declined, with the consumer goods sub index losing 1.6%. International oil prices fell over 2% on rising US crude inventories and a stronger dollar. Agricultural commodity prices also moved lower due to oversupply concerns, although corn prices rose slightly on good US crop conditions. Analysts expect further declines in oil and soft commodity prices due to persistent oversupply issues.
Vacancy Factor Index June 2016
1) The vacancy factor in Nigeria increased from 165 in March 2016 to 172 in June 2016, with the highest vacancy rate in Lekki at 65%.
2) Both the residential and commercial real estate indices rose in the second quarter of 2016, though the market continues to deteriorate due to challenges like high inflation and the economic recession.
3) Increasing building material prices and declining purchasing power are expected to further dampen housing demand and lead to more movement to the suburbs, while the real estate market recovery is anticipated in 2017.
FDC Economic Bulletin May 16, 2016
Headline inflation in Nigeria increased sharply to a record 13.7% in April 2016, continuing the trend of rising prices. Several factors contributed to higher inflation, including a 67.6% increase in petrol prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate that saw the naira depreciate to N355/$, and persistent power shortages. The core inflation index, which excludes volatile food prices, rose to 13.4% due to higher fuel and electricity costs. Food inflation also increased. Looking ahead, further rises in inflation are expected in the short term due to currency depreciation, fuel prices hikes, and reduced food supplies.
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The document summarizes an economic bulletin from Financial Derivatives Company predicting that Nigeria's headline inflation rate will rise to 18.2% in October 2016, representing a 0.3% increase from September and the highest rate in 11 years. It also notes that the naira appreciated against the dollar in both the official and parallel markets during the month. However, dollar scarcity still pushed domestic prices higher. The report forecasts continued inflationary pressures during the festive season as consumer demand and expectations rise, though consumer resistance to higher prices has also increased due to lower incomes.
Fdc economic bulletin - November 9, 2015
Inflation in Nigeria increased to 9.5% in October, up from 9.4% in September. Imported inflation and higher food prices such as rice contributed to rising consumer prices. Urban inflation in Lagos also rose in October, driven by increases in the prices of rice, tomatoes, and onions. Inflation is increasing across Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with double-digit inflation seen in Angola and a sharp rise in Kenya. Nigerian monetary authorities will discuss interest rates at their upcoming November meeting to address high inflation and steer the country toward growth in 2016.
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The IMF has made recommendations to Nigeria including increasing non-oil revenue, introducing exchange rate flexibility, and gradually eliminating fuel subsidies. The IMF has engaged with several countries in sub-Saharan Africa through loans, advisory services, and economic reviews. Nigeria's 2016 budget projects a fiscal deficit of 2.16% of GDP, and the IMF's endorsement would help Nigeria's international borrowing plans.
The Spectre of High Inflation Haunts Nigeria
1) Inflation in Nigeria is projected to increase slightly to 9.5% in December 2015, which would be the highest rate since 2013. Inflation rose in 9 of the past 12 months due to factors like currency depreciation, fuel scarcity, and policy uncertainty.
2) Inflation is forecasted to continue rising in the first quarter of 2016 to a range of 11-12% by year's end, driven by government spending, fiscal bailouts, and expectations around social programs and electricity tariff hikes.
3) Other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are also experiencing rising inflation due to factors like currency depreciation, food and beverage price hikes, and
Commodities update 27 october 2016
1) Domestic commodity prices in Nigeria saw mixed movements, with rice falling to N20,000 per 50kg bag while garri increased to N15,000 per 50kg bag and palm oil rose to N17,000.
2) Brent crude fell 2.74% to $49.98 per barrel and WTI declined 2.65% to $49.18 per barrel on concerns over OPEC's output deal, though losses were capped by a drawdown in US crude inventories.
3) Cocoa prices increased 1.24% due to threats to production from illegal mining in Ghana, while sugar prices dropped 1.46% on steady supply and limited demand. Wheat and corn futures rose
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The document discusses the difference between recession and stagflation using global case studies. It provides definitions and examples of each. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth along with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Examples given include recessions in the US, Brazil, and Russia. Stagflation is defined as slowing economic growth combined with high unemployment and high inflation. Examples given include stagflation in OECD countries in the 1970s-1980s due to oil shocks. The document concludes that while Nigeria is experiencing negative growth and inflation, falling monthly inflation indicates the country is currently in a recession rather than stagflation.LBS November 2016
The document provides an overview of economic conditions in Nigeria and globally in October 2016. It discusses the rejection of Nigeria's $30 billion external debt plan, falling oil production and revenues, high interest rates, and inflation. Globally, it notes steady but sluggish growth, and highlights economic successes in telecoms and construction when markets are allowed to function. It analyzes Nigeria's exchange rates and concludes several economic indicators are concerning, with money supply, GDP growth, national debt, and inflation rated as red.
LBS February 2017
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic challenges in 2016 and provides an outlook for 2017. Some key points:
- 2016 was a difficult year for Nigeria with negative GDP growth, high inflation, currency depreciation and other issues.
- 2017 may see a slow and uneven recovery if oil prices remain around $55 per barrel, allowing GDP growth of around 1%. High inflation and exchange rate volatility are still risks.
- The recovery path will be treacherous, with scenarios ranging from a fast V-shaped rebound to a continued recession depending on factors like oil prices, the Niger Delta situation, and monetary/fiscal policies.
- Events to watch that could influence the economy in 2017 include oil price
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- The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell back into negative territory, indicating economic contraction. Dangote will reopen its tomato factory this month.
- Oil prices remained above $56 per barrel, which is positive for government revenue. However, the negative PMI and low capacity utilization could lead to job losses.
- Prices for commodities like maize, tomatoes, and cement varied slightly across key cities in Nigeria but were generally stable. E-commerce prices for some consumer goods were around 5.9% higher than market prices on average.
FDC Economic Bulletin - MPC maintains status quo
The MPC maintained the status quo on monetary policy parameters while expressing concerns about global volatility and weaknesses in domestic inflation fundamentals. While cautious, the MPC acknowledged that money supply growth contributes to inflation and hinted that a more accommodative policy may come in 2017, supported by potential GDP growth, higher oil prices, and government economic plans. The MPC guidance focused on a more accommodative stance, increased monitoring of money supply, and financial system soundness.
10 snapshots in 1 (2017, from the eye of the experts)
The document provides advice to an investor who invested $100k in the Nigerian stock market in 2015 and has seen the value of their portfolio decline to less than $40,000 due to currency fluctuations and market performance. The advisor notes that a 150% return would be required to recover the original dollar value and that exiting the market now to cut further losses may be preferable to waiting and risking an even greater loss. They suggest the investor consider their risk tolerance and that only a highly optimistic investor would expect a quick rebound of the Nigerian stock market given current economic conditions.
2017 Great Expectations
The document summarizes economic conditions in Nigeria from 2016 to early 2017. It notes that while the President made promises in 2016 to eliminate fuel shortages, improve security, and crack down on corruption, many of these promises went undelivered as oil production slumped, unemployment rose, and inflation increased. The economy struggled in 2016 with GDP declining. Early signs in 2017 suggest factors like higher oil prices and a rising manufacturing index could lead to modest GDP growth, but uncertainty remains around issues like the exchange rate and upcoming elections.
FDC Economic Bulletin
Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
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The document provides an economic summary and outlook for Nigeria in July 2016. It notes that June saw signs of economic inflection in Nigeria, including the disappearance of fuel queues, a rise in the oil price, and monetary policy reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria. However, GDP growth is still estimated to be negative for the full year. The outlook is positive but painful as Nigeria stumbles into economic reforms, with the exchange rate expected to find a new equilibrium around N295-N310 per dollar. Winners in the stock market will be companies able to source raw materials internationally and leverage parent companies.
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The Central Bank of Nigeria tightened its monetary policy rate to 14% annually in an effort to curb headline inflation which had risen to 16.5%. This rate hike aimed to increase dollar inflows to support the foreign exchange market, reduce external reserve depletion, boost national savings, and reduce regulatory arbitrage between banks and the CBN. In the short term, the higher interest rates were expected to lead to appreciation of the naira exchange rate against the dollar in both the interbank and parallel markets. However, inflation in Nigeria has largely been driven by supply shocks which may not respond to interest rate adjustments. The higher borrowing costs could also increase corporate failures, non-performing loans, and government debt service costs, inflicting
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Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
Vacancy Factor Index Up in June 2016
The Vacancy Factor Index for Q2 2016 came in at 72% for June, indicating a marginal rise in vacant properties in high-end neighborhoods of Lagos. The rise was expected given GDP contraction and high rental defaults. Vacancy rates were highest in Lekki, which also has the most developments but few uncompleted projects. Victoria Island had the lowest vacancy due to mixed commercial and residential use. Declines in the index are only expected when GDP and business conditions improve to boost demand.
Commodities update 03 may 2016
The document lists current commodity prices in three Nigerian cities - Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha. It shows the prices of items like cement, cassava, maize, flour, sugar, rice, palm oil, beans, semovita, and pasta. Domestic commodity prices have remained stable. The document also discusses rice imports, the quality of local rice, herdsmen threatening food security, and stock market performance.
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This document summarizes and discusses the distortions created by the Mercator map projection, which has been widely used in classrooms and shaped people's perceptions of world geography. While useful for navigation, the Mercator projection greatly exaggerates the size of countries in the northern hemisphere like Canada, Russia, Europe, and the US compared to their actual sizes. In contrast, Africa appears much smaller on the Mercator map than in reality. This distortion could have unintentionally promoted European imperialism by making Western nations seem more powerful. However, no map projection can perfectly represent the spherical earth on a flat surface without some distortions.
Commodities Update
Domestic commodity prices in Nigeria were mixed, with some prices like palm oil and maize rising slightly in Lagos, Kano, and Onitsha while others held steady. The naira closed at N330/$ in the interbank market. Consumer goods stocks declined, with the consumer goods sub index losing 1.6%. International oil prices fell over 2% on rising US crude inventories and a stronger dollar. Agricultural commodity prices also moved lower due to oversupply concerns, although corn prices rose slightly on good US crop conditions. Analysts expect further declines in oil and soft commodity prices due to persistent oversupply issues.
Vacancy Factor Index June 2016
1) The vacancy factor in Nigeria increased from 165 in March 2016 to 172 in June 2016, with the highest vacancy rate in Lekki at 65%.
2) Both the residential and commercial real estate indices rose in the second quarter of 2016, though the market continues to deteriorate due to challenges like high inflation and the economic recession.
3) Increasing building material prices and declining purchasing power are expected to further dampen housing demand and lead to more movement to the suburbs, while the real estate market recovery is anticipated in 2017.
FDC Economic Bulletin May 16, 2016
Headline inflation in Nigeria increased sharply to a record 13.7% in April 2016, continuing the trend of rising prices. Several factors contributed to higher inflation, including a 67.6% increase in petrol prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate that saw the naira depreciate to N355/$, and persistent power shortages. The core inflation index, which excludes volatile food prices, rose to 13.4% due to higher fuel and electricity costs. Food inflation also increased. Looking ahead, further rises in inflation are expected in the short term due to currency depreciation, fuel prices hikes, and reduced food supplies.
FDC Economic Bulletin - November 09, 2016
The document summarizes an economic bulletin from Financial Derivatives Company predicting that Nigeria's headline inflation rate will rise to 18.2% in October 2016, representing a 0.3% increase from September and the highest rate in 11 years. It also notes that the naira appreciated against the dollar in both the official and parallel markets during the month. However, dollar scarcity still pushed domestic prices higher. The report forecasts continued inflationary pressures during the festive season as consumer demand and expectations rise, though consumer resistance to higher prices has also increased due to lower incomes.
Fdc economic bulletin - November 9, 2015
Inflation in Nigeria increased to 9.5% in October, up from 9.4% in September. Imported inflation and higher food prices such as rice contributed to rising consumer prices. Urban inflation in Lagos also rose in October, driven by increases in the prices of rice, tomatoes, and onions. Inflation is increasing across Sub-Saharan Africa as well, with double-digit inflation seen in Angola and a sharp rise in Kenya. Nigerian monetary authorities will discuss interest rates at their upcoming November meeting to address high inflation and steer the country toward growth in 2016.
Nigeria & The International Monetary Fund
The IMF has made recommendations to Nigeria including increasing non-oil revenue, introducing exchange rate flexibility, and gradually eliminating fuel subsidies. The IMF has engaged with several countries in sub-Saharan Africa through loans, advisory services, and economic reviews. Nigeria's 2016 budget projects a fiscal deficit of 2.16% of GDP, and the IMF's endorsement would help Nigeria's international borrowing plans.
The Spectre of High Inflation Haunts Nigeria
1) Inflation in Nigeria is projected to increase slightly to 9.5% in December 2015, which would be the highest rate since 2013. Inflation rose in 9 of the past 12 months due to factors like currency depreciation, fuel scarcity, and policy uncertainty.
2) Inflation is forecasted to continue rising in the first quarter of 2016 to a range of 11-12% by year's end, driven by government spending, fiscal bailouts, and expectations around social programs and electricity tariff hikes.
3) Other countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are also experiencing rising inflation due to factors like currency depreciation, food and beverage price hikes, and
Commodities update 27 october 2016
1) Domestic commodity prices in Nigeria saw mixed movements, with rice falling to N20,000 per 50kg bag while garri increased to N15,000 per 50kg bag and palm oil rose to N17,000.
2) Brent crude fell 2.74% to $49.98 per barrel and WTI declined 2.65% to $49.18 per barrel on concerns over OPEC's output deal, though losses were capped by a drawdown in US crude inventories.
3) Cocoa prices increased 1.24% due to threats to production from illegal mining in Ghana, while sugar prices dropped 1.46% on steady supply and limited demand. Wheat and corn futures rose
FDC Bi-Monthly Economic and Business Update. October 26, 2016
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The document discusses the difference between recession and stagflation using global case studies. It provides definitions and examples of each. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth along with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Examples given include recessions in the US, Brazil, and Russia. Stagflation is defined as slowing economic growth combined with high unemployment and high inflation. Examples given include stagflation in OECD countries in the 1970s-1980s due to oil shocks. The document concludes that while Nigeria is experiencing negative growth and inflation, falling monthly inflation indicates the country is currently in a recession rather than stagflation.LBS November 2016
The document provides an overview of economic conditions in Nigeria and globally in October 2016. It discusses the rejection of Nigeria's $30 billion external debt plan, falling oil production and revenues, high interest rates, and inflation. Globally, it notes steady but sluggish growth, and highlights economic successes in telecoms and construction when markets are allowed to function. It analyzes Nigeria's exchange rates and concludes several economic indicators are concerning, with money supply, GDP growth, national debt, and inflation rated as red.
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LBS February 2017
The document summarizes Nigeria's economic challenges in 2016 and provides an outlook for 2017. Some key points:
- 2016 was a difficult year for Nigeria with negative GDP growth, high inflation, currency depreciation and other issues.
- 2017 may see a slow and uneven recovery if oil prices remain around $55 per barrel, allowing GDP growth of around 1%. High inflation and exchange rate volatility are still risks.
- The recovery path will be treacherous, with scenarios ranging from a fast V-shaped rebound to a continued recession depending on factors like oil prices, the Niger Delta situation, and monetary/fiscal policies.
- Events to watch that could influence the economy in 2017 include oil price
Commodities update February 02, 2017
- The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell back into negative territory, indicating economic contraction. Dangote will reopen its tomato factory this month.
- Oil prices remained above $56 per barrel, which is positive for government revenue. However, the negative PMI and low capacity utilization could lead to job losses.
- Prices for commodities like maize, tomatoes, and cement varied slightly across key cities in Nigeria but were generally stable. E-commerce prices for some consumer goods were around 5.9% higher than market prices on average.
FDC Economic Bulletin - MPC maintains status quo
The MPC maintained the status quo on monetary policy parameters while expressing concerns about global volatility and weaknesses in domestic inflation fundamentals. While cautious, the MPC acknowledged that money supply growth contributes to inflation and hinted that a more accommodative policy may come in 2017, supported by potential GDP growth, higher oil prices, and government economic plans. The MPC guidance focused on a more accommodative stance, increased monitoring of money supply, and financial system soundness.
10 snapshots in 1 (2017, from the eye of the experts)
The document provides advice to an investor who invested $100k in the Nigerian stock market in 2015 and has seen the value of their portfolio decline to less than $40,000 due to currency fluctuations and market performance. The advisor notes that a 150% return would be required to recover the original dollar value and that exiting the market now to cut further losses may be preferable to waiting and risking an even greater loss. They suggest the investor consider their risk tolerance and that only a highly optimistic investor would expect a quick rebound of the Nigerian stock market given current economic conditions.
2017 Great Expectations
The document summarizes economic conditions in Nigeria from 2016 to early 2017. It notes that while the President made promises in 2016 to eliminate fuel shortages, improve security, and crack down on corruption, many of these promises went undelivered as oil production slumped, unemployment rose, and inflation increased. The economy struggled in 2016 with GDP declining. Early signs in 2017 suggest factors like higher oil prices and a rising manufacturing index could lead to modest GDP growth, but uncertainty remains around issues like the exchange rate and upcoming elections.
FDC Economic Bulletin
Headline inflation in Nigeria soared to an 11-year high of 16.5% in June, confounding analysts who expected a marginal decline. While a new foreign exchange regime began on June 20th, the dysfunctional market continued to be a key driver of inflation. Food prices rose due to increases in the prices of fish, meat, and other foods. Transportation costs also increased despite a slight fall in petrol prices, as diesel prices rose substantially. Looking ahead, monetary policymakers will have to balance controlling inflation with supporting economic growth as they determine interest rates.
FDC Bi monthly Economic and Business Update May 13, 2016
FDC Think Tank breaks down and analyzes pertinent topics and charts outlook for economic direction and policy
FDC Economic Bulletin April 2016
The document discusses Nigeria's currency swap deal with China. It explains that the deal involves Nigeria depositing a portion of its foreign reserves in yuan with China's central bank in exchange for an equal amount in yuan. This will allow Nigerian importers to pay for Chinese goods in naira and Chinese exporters to pay for Nigerian oil in naira. While the deal could boost trade between the two countries, it may increase Nigeria's economic dependence on China and will not directly strengthen the naira or curb inflation in Nigeria. The deal may also lead to more Chinese imports and investment in Nigeria.
FDC Economic Bulletin April 12, 2016
Headline inflation in Nigeria spiked to a record high of 12.8% in March, exceeding the Central Bank of Nigeria's ceiling of 9%. This unprecedented rise in inflation confounded monetary policymakers and posed a major policy challenge. Food prices increased by 1.4% due to higher transportation and logistics costs, while core inflation rose 1.1% driven by imported inflation, electricity tariff hikes, and fuel shortages. The document predicts inflation will rise further in April but at a slower pace, and that Nigeria's exclusion from an emerging market index and the specter of interest rate hikes will continue undermining the stock market and investors.
Real Estate Vacancy Factor Index April 2016
The real estate vacancy factor index (VFIX) for Lagos increased marginally in March 2016 to 165 from 160.7 in January, indicating that vacant property levels were 65% higher than January 2015. Vacancy was highest in Lekki at 64% followed by Victoria Island at 35% and Ikoyi at 24%. Rents have remained high despite supply increases, likely due to money laundering and corruption ties to the real estate sector. The VFIX is a lagging economic indicator that reflects changes after the business cycle has moved. Residential and commercial subindices both increased significantly year-to-date due to declining economic conditions reducing demand. The outlook anticipates declining vacancy factors starting in the second quarter if the recently
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3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
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我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
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选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
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03. Inspiration investment story
快速办理(SMU毕业证书)南卫理公会大学毕业证毕业完成信一模一样
学校原件一模一样【微信：741003700 】《(SMU毕业证书)南卫理公会大学毕业证》【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）原件一模一样纸张工艺/offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
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5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdf
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
Who Is Abhay Bhutada, MD of Poonawalla Fincorp
Abhay Bhutada, the Managing Director of Poonawalla Fincorp Limited, is an accomplished leader with over 15 years of experience in commercial and retail lending. A Qualified Chartered Accountant, he has been pivotal in leveraging technology to enhance financial services. Starting his career at Bank of India, he later founded TAB Capital Limited and co-founded Poonawalla Finance Private Limited, emphasizing digital lending. Under his leadership, Poonawalla Fincorp achieved a 'AAA' credit rating, integrating acquisitions and emphasizing corporate governance. Actively involved in industry forums and CSR initiatives, Abhay has been recognized with awards like "Young Entrepreneur of India 2017" and "40 under 40 Most Influential Leader for 2020-21." Personally, he values mindfulness, enjoys gardening, yoga, and sees every day as an opportunity for growth and improvement.
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Buhari 100 days in power: Macroeconomic Scorecard - july 29 to september 2 2015 channels tv news at 10 fdc presentation
- 2. Exchange Rate •IFEM: •Parallel: Oil Price (Brent) FAAC External Reserves Inflation Stock Market Cap. May 29 •N197.93/$ •N219/$ $65.56pb N409bn $29.6bn 8.7% N11.66trn Sept 2 •N197.55/$ •N220/$ $48.67pb N511.8bn $31.32bn 9.2% N10.27trn Change and Direction •Flat •Flat 25.6% Negative 25.1% Positive 5.8% Positive 0.5% Negative 11.92% Negative MACROECONOMIC SCORECARD (100 DAYS) 2
- 3. Unemployment Misery Index Power output Price of Diesel Vacancy Factor •Ikoyi •Victoria Island Insurgency May 29 2015 24.1% 32.8 3,205MW N160 •19% •11% High Frequency Sept 2 2015 26.5% 35.7 4,396MW N108 •31% •16% Reduced Frequency Change and Direction 2.4% Negative 8.8% Negative 37% Positive 32.5% Positive •12% Negative •5% Negative Positive HUMAN DEVELOPMENT FACTORS 3
- 4. S/N Indicator Comment Positive/Negative 1 Security • Insurgency attacks have decreased during the period • New service chiefs have been appointed 2 Power grid • Improved national power supply, from 1,962 MW to 4,396 MW 3 Petrol queues • Reduced fuel shortages and queue 4 Investor confidence • Reduced investor confidence due to uncertainty in policy direction ??? QUALITATIVE 4
- 5. S/N Goal Comment 0 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 75 76 - 100 1 Improved power supply • Improved national power supply from 1,962 MW to 4,396 MW 2 Improved transparency • New national psyche of accountability and responsibility 3 Reorganisation of the energy sector • Downstream saboteurs have been silenced • NNPC management has been reshuffled to improve accountability 4 Enhanced international perception • Cleaned up the international image of Nigeria • Improved the immigration service and passport process 5 Addressed fuel scarcity • Reduced the fuel shortages and queues 6 Revamped EFCC • Got the EFCC to wake up after a 6-year slumber Percentage of accomplishment (%) ACCOMPLISHMENTS 5
- 6. S/N Goal Comment 0 - 25 26 - 50 51 - 75 76 - 100 1 Fuel subsidies • Subsidies still in place and could be abused 2 Refineries • Refineries are up today and down tomorrow 3 Official appointments • Appointments appear lopsided and responses to criticism are reactive • Delay in announcing the cabinet is eating into the reputation of his assertiveness 4 Consolidation of APC • He needs to engage the APC to drive the legislative agenda • APC needs to be reformed and made an effective tool of civil society engagement 5 Transparency • Emphasis on integrity and anti corruption is ideal • But there are no saints in hell • You go to war with the army you have, not the one you wish to have – Don Rumsfeld Percentage of accomplishment (%) UNFINISHEDBUSINESS 6
- 7. 7 JOIN THE CONVERSATION NOW , DON’T MISS OUT ON IMPORTANT UPDATES, NEWS AND VIEWS FROM US. Financial Derivatives Company Ltd. 9a, Idejo Street,Victoria Island Lagos, Nigeria info@fdc-ng.com 01-7739889 @fdc_ltd @FDC_ltd fdc.nigeria Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC) Financial Derivatives Company Limited (FDC) http://www.slidesh are.net/FinancialD erivativesCompany Limited