BRIC_Case_Analysis_Hammond

BRIC Case Analysis 1
BRIC Emerging Economies
Lisa M. Hammond
February 14, 2012
MBA-575-MBOL1 Global Business Management

The four original BRIC economies have each traveled different paths to open
markets. Russia was catapulted, China planned, Brazil embraced, and India
serendipitously. The BRIC economics, Brazil, Russia, India and China, comprise almost
2.9 billion people or 42 percent of the world’s population. Their collective land area
covers more than a quarter of the world over three continents, and account for more
than 25 percent of global GDP.
A country’s population, demographics, infrastructure and education, among other
factors, directly affect the potential size of its economy and its capacity to function as an
engine of global economic growth and development.
The rapid development of telecommunications has had a profound effect on
consumers. Previously undeveloped markets could prevent information infiltration
through autocratic media control and isolationism. However with today’s technology
even censorship is inadequate. As manufacturers multinationals seek new markets to
source cheaper resources and grow revenue, those previously isolated and
undeveloped countries can no longer contain information and knowledge exchange.
However, many of these emerging markets still have great swaths of their
population mired in poverty. It is those countries who are investing in infrastructure
development, such as energy distribution, education, potable water, transportation, etc.
that will more rapidly reap the benefits of globalization. The economies that have a great
divide between wealth and subsistence run the risk of dissension and pressures from
the masses to redistribute resources and create equality.

Brazil
In terms of history, Brazil is the baby of the BRIC’s. Brazil was colonized by
Portugal in 1500 and her history is replete with military coups. Brazil’s current status as
a republic is less than 20 years old. Brazil does not command the population size of
China or India, and although wealthy in natural resources, her geography poses
transportation challenges.
“Roughly one-third of Brazil's 8.5 million square kilometers is composed of vast
tracts of challenging jungle, with the Amazon Basin being the most intractable of
all. While there are many potential opportunities to exploit minerals, they come
with daunting infrastructure costs” (Mauldin, 2011).
Brazil’s geography has resulted in very few major highways and railways.
However, most of Brazil’s arable land lay in the interior where access requires massive
amounts of capital to build roads. At the time of Portuguese settlement, it was the rich
Portuguese who built oligarchic plantation farms often in excess of 1,000 kilometers
from Brazil's ports. The Portuguese were “the only people who had the capacity to
"build" Brazil [because they] entered the country with their own pre-existing fortunes”
(Mauldin, 2011). The Oligarchs continue to wield great influence with Brazil’s
development and perpetuate a state of inequality. According to the UNDP's 2010
Human Development Report for Latin America and the Caribbean, Brazil ranks tenth in
the world's most unequal countries. “Failing education systems lie at the very heart of
this problem” (Herbert, 2010).

Education is the cornerstone of developing a skilled labor force. But
“the problem is that Brazil’s educational system is in disarray. In the Organization
of Economic Cooperation and Development’s tests of academic performance
given every three years to 15-year-olds in 57 nations, Brazilian students finished
fourth from the bottom in science and third from the bottom in math” (Downie,
2008).
The average Brazilian worker has six years of schooling. Although Brazil has
made enormous advances with school enrollment, this is largely due to “Brazil's very
effective program, Bolsa Família, which pays poor families if their children attend
school. This fund has pushed children off the street and into the school room, while also
providing the poorest with a well-needed form of income support” (Herbert, 2010).
However, enrollment does not mean learning. Brazil has an average illiteracy
rate of 12 percent, with 27 percent of those over 50 years of age illiterate.
Human capital is an important determinant of a region’s economic growth. “Data
on growth of income per person … reveals that at least one important measure of skills
that is consistently correlated with future growth is education” (Lacker, 2007). However,
Brazil’s education system is under-funded, inefficient and of poor quality. Therefore, “in
an era of global competition, the current state of education in Brazil means it is likely to
fall behind other developing economies in the search for new investment and economic
growth opportunities" (Herbert, 2010).
“The lack of civil and construction engineers threatens infrastructure projects
[and] companies are turning to foreign labor because there are not enough qualified
Brazilians to go around” (Downie, 2008). Marcos Coelho, president of the administrative

council at Esteio, an engineering firm that conducts topographic studies had to reduce
the size of his company, stating due to the dearth of qualified labor.
Brazil began economic transformation in earnest in 1994 with the election of
President Cardoso. However it was during his tenure as Minister of Foreign Affairs that
“he began the transformation … by introducing a plan to curb the hyperinflation which
for decades had been the single most destructive force in Brazil’s political economy”
(Bradley, 2008).
Cardoso served two terms and was replaced by President Lula in 2002. Lula and
“his adviser’s saw the value, especially to the poor, of low inflation and a stable, growing
economy” (Bradley, 2008). Lula continued Cardoso’s economic practices including
“floating exchange rate, budget surpluses (before debt payments), inflation targeting
and central bank independence” (Bradley, 2008).
Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s new president and Lula’s former chief of staff, has
vowed to continue to fight poverty and boost economic stability. However, the main
challenges to Brazil’s continued growth will be strengthening her fragile democracy,
improving poor infrastructure, and the ever present threat of inflation. “Although Brazil
enjoys a big overall trade surplus … most of its exports are of commodities (mainly iron
ore, soya beans and crude oil). It has a big deficit in manufacturing” (Brazil's Trade
Policy: Seeking Protection, 2012). Commodity prices are subject to the vicissitudes of
the market and transporting goods from the interior to port is usually done by truck,
these “logistics costs can be as high as 20 percent of GDP” (de Ferranti, 2004, p. 264).
Domestic consumption drives Brazil's GDP as its large population becomes more
prosperous, making the country the world's tenth largest economy. “Over 60% of

Brazil's GDP is driven by domestic consumption” (INVESTMENT TRUSTS: Belief in
Brazils domestic miracle, 2011, p. 37). However, Brazil’s rising current-account deficit
may suggest that domestic demand is rising too fast. This may be attributed to “the
legacy of inflation [where] consumers still save less than in many other countries and
[may be] one reason for lower levels of investment in Brazil” (Smith, 2011, p. 56). A
widening current-account deficit can indicate overheating as domestic demand
outpaces supply
The economic reforms of the last 20 years have assisted Brazil’s economic
growth rate. However, tight labor markets will impair the sustainability of growth. Brazil’s
unemployment rate of 6.1 percent is well below its ten-year average, and credit is
outpacing GDP by an alarming margin. “core inflation (excluding food and energy) … is
a worrying 5.5% in Brazil . Where growth is bumping up against capacity constraints
and labor markets are tight, wages are accelerating, [and] inflation may spill over into
prices (Economics Focus: Some Like It Hot, 201).
Brazil’s manufacturers have been hobbled by a strong currency, high interest
rates, high taxes, poor infrastructure and a poorly educated workforce. “Brazil faces a
big competitive challenge, and the relationship with China only dramatizes that,”
(Brazil's Trade Policy: Seeking Protection, 2012)
China is influencing Brazil in three ways.
“The first is direct competition for market share in Brazil. The Chinese yuan is de
facto pegged to the dollar, so Brazilian goods are now even less competitive
versus Chinese goods on the domestic. Second, China is engaging in indirect
competition for market share by shipping goods into Brazil via other Mercosur

member states — a fact that has prompted Brazil to raise non-tariff barriers that
penalize Mercosur partners in an effort to stem Chinese competition. Third, the
Chinese are among those international investors whose cash is pushing the
value of the real ever upward. With every dollar the Chinese invest into Brazilian
commodity production, the real goes just a bit higher and Chinese goods edge
out their Brazilian counterparts just a bit more” (Mauldin, 2011).
It is imperative that Brazil address its internal deficiencies of infrastructure,
education, and continued political stability, before it finds China cannibalizing Brazil’s
trade surplus and wielding its influence with commodity pricing. Additionally, industry
wants to see fewer taxes, cheaper energy, less bureaucracy and better transport
networks, says Paulo Skaf, FIESP’s president. On these things the government is
moving far too slowly, if at all
Brazil’s public debt is almost 55 percent of GDP. Strong reliance on short-term
funding and/or floating-interest-rate debt instruments exposes governments to a
worsening in overall financial market conditions and potentially a funding crisis. “Brazil
faces large annual roll-over needs at around 8.6% of GDP” (Becker, 2011). Although
Brazil requires low external roll-over due to a low share of external debt, Brazil’s internal
debt funding has come at the price of crowding out indigenous investment.
Russia
Russia, once part of the Soviet Union, was a centrally planned, communist
country. The socialist system is based on a very specific set of comprehensive
institutions that give precise orders for what is to be done, when, how and where. For
example, the State gives orders to

“the grain producers telling them what to produce, where to send the grain, [and]
what to do with the grain. This very comprehensive system is based not on
vested interest but on power … if you withdraw power from the system, the
Communist Party, the KGB, the fear, … you will be confronted with complete
economic collapse” (Kreisler, 1996).
When the Soviet Union collapsed and all mechanisms failed, the result was no food, no
electricity, and no paychecks for soldiers,
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country was faced with systemic
challenges. The collapse was not merely political, but plunged the entire county into
economic chaos where “all the mechanisms of microeconomic regulation [failed]”
(Kreisler, 1996). In order to address the most immediate problems of inefficient money
and the food supply, Russia rapidly introduced a central bank, established a zero-import
tax, and opened the markets to allow trade to “everybody, anyplace, without any
restrictions” (Kreisler, 1996)
It was critical to start the Russian economy moving and create the preconditions
for stable economic growth. Yeltsin’s advisors understood that to implement reforms
and create an efficient and stable market economy, was critical to reducing the
possibilities of radical nationalists to use the pressing problems to grab power in
Moscow.
“By 1990, Gorbachev was cautiously promoting a market economy including the
individual's right to possess private property… [and] religious freedoms.
Meanwhile, contacts with the outside world, especially the west, began to
intensify. [Glasnost revealed the atrocities of Stalin] and Perestroika and glasnost

also revealed the widespread ecological damage the Soviets had caused on the
environment. Gorbachev's reforms polarized opinion in ways that even
Gorbachev and his stalwart supporters could never have foreseen. All that
restructuring and all that openness had increased the diversity of opinions and in
the end, led to little more than nationalist and ethnic in-fighting” (Kreis, 2009)
“Since 1998, Russia has enjoyed robust growth and foreign debt has fallen from
64% of gross domestic product (GDP) to 10%” (RUSSIA: The rising star of the east,
2006, p. 30). Lower foreign debt has resulted in Russia investing an estimated “21.9%
of GDP” (Russia World Fact Book, 2012).
However, corruption is still rife, and “the shadow economy accounts for
30% of GDP, legal protection of ownership is shaky and businesses find themselves
forced to deal regularly with multiple levels of government just to function” (RUSSIA:
The rising star of the east, 2006, p. 30). Without enforcement mechanisms to combat
corruption and lowering all trade barriers, GDP will not reflect the Russia’s true
economic performance.
Russia holds 38 percent of the world’s natural resources. These
resources represent 80 percent of Russia’s exports, and like Brazil are
subject to price volatility.
However, Russia’s proximity to China, and China’s growing energy consumption
provide “clear benefits: Russia's energy companies secure a stake in China, which is
set to become the world's biggest energy consumer within five years, according to the
International Energy Agency in Paris. And for China, Russia provides a safer, more

direct source for gas and oil than either the Persian Gulf or the Horn of Africa {Russia
and china: An old alliance hinges on energy, 2009)
The Chinese and Soviet relations have warmed significantly since the fall of the
Soviet Union. Through this evolving relationship, the two powers recently
commemorated the 10th anniversary of the China-Russia Treaty of Good-
Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation and are pursuing a five-point agenda to
boost Beijing-Moscow ties.
A significant point on the 2011 agenda is that “the two sides should strengthen
local cooperation, speed up infrastructure construction for cross-border highways,
railways, bridges, power grids, oil and gas pipelines and telecommunication and
promote border trade, as well as explore the possibility of establishing a border
economic zone” (Chinese vice premier prepares five-point agenda to boost Beijing-
Moscow ties, 2011).
As China's energy demands are expected to climb steeply over the next two
decades, Russia provides a convenient supply of the resources needed. China “now
gets 70% of its power from coal-fired generation and just 3% from cleaner-burning
natural gas. China has rich coal resources, but the material is generally of low quality
and contributes heavily to the country's severe air pollution” (Russia and china: An old
alliance hinges on energy, 2009).
The Russian educational system has achieved nearly 100 percent literacy. “The
Russian labor force, amounting to nearly 76 million workers in 2010, is undergoing
tremendous changes. Although well educated and skilled, it is largely mismatched to the
rapidly changing needs of the Russian economy” (Russian Federation Profile, 2011).

Russia’s population is the smallest of the BRICs at 143 million. Furthermore,
“The death rate is twice the birth rate and in the next 50 years the population is
projected to drop to 100 million or below” (Marketing Week, 2006, p. 30). Population
shrinkage poses unique problems for Russia given its current export market of natural
resources which can be labor intensive. Innovation’s in harvesting and extraction will be
critical to continue the mining of the resources, and develop industries requiring highly
skilled and efficient labor.
In 2011, Russia reported a trade surplus equivalent to 17.4 Billion USD. Natural
resources including metals and energy make up more than 80 percent of Russia's
exports. But like Brazil, natural resources are subject to price volatility and Russia’s
disproportionate reliance could create economic instability with market swings.
Russia's long-term challenges include a shrinking workforce, a high
level of corruption, and poor infrastructure in need of large investments.
Although Russia’s relationship with China to build infrastructure along their
borders will aid in transporting energy commodities to China, Russia still
needs to address broader infrastructure needs to effectively compete on the
global stage.
India
Although India is one of the world’s oldest civilizations, British rule of India did not
formally end until1947. After independence India’s economic growth was slow. The
State seized control of the economy and all actions of business needed permission.
Business expansion needed a license. Foreign exchange required an industrial license

to expand. “The government effectively controlled everything through a series of
interlocking controls” (Williamson, 2006).
During the early 1990’s Manmohan Singh was the finance minister of India and
pursued microeconomic liberalization. Singh eliminated many of the business controls,
“the requirements to obtain permission from the Capital Issues Committee to raise new
money, and the ban on foreign direct investment” (Williamson, 2006). Singh’s initial
actions were to eliminate the quantitative trade restrictions, reduced tariffs, modernize
the tax system and pursue divestiture of public sector ownership. Singh’s policies
resulted in growth and a decline in poverty.
At the outset of independence from Britain, India recognized the need for post
war industrial development and established the Indian Institute of Technology in 1950.
The serendipitous result is “India's large English-speaking and information technology
competent workforce has lent strength to its growing international economic might. It
has already made headway in the knowledge-intensive IT industry services sector that
contributes largely to its export earnings” (Taking advantage of India’s economic boom,
2010).
Although India has made an indelible imprint on technology services, education
for the masses is still a problem. A small elite minority receive excellent education, but
the poor and women may not receive any. Part of difficulty with distributing educational
services is due to corruption.
“Transparency International India "India Corruption Study 2008" has estimated
that below poverty line households spent over 883 crore paying bribes of which
Rs.223 crore were paid by the poorest to avail 11 basic public services such as

hospital, education and water that they are entitled to. Nearly two-thirds of these
below poverty households could not avail of basic public services, school
education and electricity because they could not pay [the] bribe or use contact or
influence to avail of service” (Ray, 2011).
However, 25 percent of the population lives below the poverty level and PPP is at
3,582 US dollars in December of 2010. India’s PPP is the lowest of the BRIC
economies and less than half of China’s.
Education is critical to innovation and India’s future development. Poverty will
drag on resources and civil strife is always a risk. India’s literacy rate is improving and
reached 74 percent in 2011, a “9.2 percent increase from 2001” (Census: India's literacy
rate rises by 9.2 pc , 2011). However, India needs to continue to make strides to take
advantage of its young and growing labor market.
This high level of inequality and a great section of the country not participating in
prosperity may impair the government’s ability to pursue further economic changes that
will capture more of the global marketplace.” If the government fails to convince these
sections of society that high growth will benefit them (by providing the resources for
vastly improved health and education facilities, access to markets by better roads etc)
… then these voters could be very reluctant to sanction change in the future” (India -
robust long-term growth prospects, 2010).
Another major concern is the country's infrastructure. “While the government is
fully aware of the huge importance of dramatically increasing this over the next decade
(increased electricity production, more ports, roads, airports and other civil engineering
infrastructure) to help facilitate the hoped-for increase in private sector activity,

obstacles to this could come from either political problems or from a lack of finance”
(India - robust long-term growth prospects, 2010). “As a result of India's chronic
infrastructure deficit, logistics costs are as high as 13-14% of GDP, considerably higher
than 8% in United States” (Ray, 2011)
India is attractive to foreign investors, who see the potential size of the domestic
market. However, the indication of pent up demand needs to be tempered with the high
degree of poverty at 25 percent
“A range of imposing hurdles lie along India's path to development, including the
need to transform its swelling population of young people into a skilled pool of labor”
(India can use diversity, 2006). And developing an expansive infrastructure network to
reduce logistics expenses and tap into the burgeoning populations of the rural citizenry.
China
China has witnessed thousands of years of cultural continuity. China’s strategies
span decades, if not centuries, and she is presently pursuing her 12th
Five-Year-Plan.
China's First Five-Year Plan (1953-57), was characterized by efforts to achieve
industrialization, collectivization of agriculture, and political centralization. Planning is a
key characteristic of China’s historically centralized, communist economy. Although
China has moved to a more market oriented economy, long term planning is a central
tenet. “China is a long term oriented society in which persistence and perseverance are
normal” (Hofstede, 2012). This is most evident in her planning. As a highly collectivist
culture people act in the interests of the group and not necessarily of themselves. This
high degree of obedience to authority and centuries of enculturation have provided

China with citizens that are “influenced by formal authority and sanctions” (Hofstede,
2012).
China is the third largest country in the world with a land mass in excess of 9.4
million sq km, and is slightly larger than the U.S. China boasts a population of 1.3 billion
people, the most populous country in the world.
China’s economic transformation is the result of a combination of structural and
politically based factors, a complex web of education, demographics, and enculturation.
China requires nine years of compulsory education and has achieved a 92.2 percent
literacy rate. Only 2.8 percent of China’s population is below poverty.
China is at the forefront of a massive infrastructure investment in order to
capitalize on her extensive labor pool and either connect the masses to the cities or
build manufacturing enclaves near dense populations centers.
China’s 12th five-year plan calls for “raising household disposable income by 7
percent a year; thus the government may urge large state-owned enterprises to
increase wages across the board, which would pressure other companies to follow suit”
(Wale, 2012). Through raising disposable income, China expects to increase domestic
demand. However, the Chinese are a risk adverse culture and increasing disposable
income may not translate into additional spending. Additional incentives to spend may
be necessary to reduce its high domestic savings rate and generate demand.
As with China’s planning, China applies the same reiterative process to
innovation. When the Chinese have an idea, they test it in the marketplace, rather than
spending resources to test theory. “The Chinese view is that it’s not going to be perfect,
and they’re not trying to make it perfect from day one. They’ve got a few more series of

improvements to go, and they’ll work on them in parallel with finding out what the
customer really likes and adapting to that. That’s an innovative way of doing innovation,
something that the rest of the world is struggling to understand” (Wale, 2012).
China’s “Prowess in innovation will not only become an increasingly important
differentiator inside China but should also yield ideas and products that become serious
competitors on the international stage” (Orr, 2012).
China has become quite adept at acquiring intellectual property through bartering
access and partnering with multinationals desirous of access to her markets. However,
China’s ultimate goal is to reduce dependence on foreign technologies, as delineated in
“a new, two-pronged initiative that will increase the pressure on global
companies to share their IP with Chinese partners. The first part involves
stepped-up investments and new policy directives that will advance large, next-
generation technology platforms such as cloud computing, the Internet of Things,
and hybrid electric vehicles. These three markets represent tens of billions of
dollars in opportunities for global and domestic semiconductor companies. The
second part sets targets for indigenous innovation, with the goal of reducing
dependence on foreign technologies to 30 percent, from the current 50 percent.
Government purchases of products and services, from mobile phones to cloud-
computing networks, will favor products that incorporate high levels of
domestically developed technology. (Wale, 2012)
This strategy may advantage China, but will not bode well for the long term
prospects of selling to China. China already has a $27. 2 Billion USD trade surplus and
mainly imports commodities. However with China’s ever developing relations with

Russia, even commodity imports may be curtail. Furthermore, through satisfying
domestic demand internally, China’s surplus will only grow. But this strategy rings well
with Chinese companies who “are now moving to the forefront of a “built in China, for
China” movement”. (Orr G. , 2012)
The China-Russia strategic partnership of cooperation is unique, important to
both parties and sound for their combined global economic development.
“Deepening political cooperation, economic and trade cooperation, scientific and
technological cooperation, humanities cooperation, and security cooperation
between China and Russia is not only of utmost importance to the vital interests of
both countries but is of great significance for the maintenance of peace and stability
in the Eurasian region and the whole world” (Premier Wens at China-Russia
Economic Trade Forum, 2008).
China is the only emerging nation among all the BRICs that seems destined to
convert itself into a dominant economy, as well as a technological and military power.
(de Almeida, 2009)
China’s methodical and meticulous planning, coupled with her growing alliance
with Russia, provide a glimpse into her longer term objectives. The coming years will
most likely see China power its way up the value-added chain and develop its huge
domestic market to become an even more vital global player.
Conclusion
. Although Russia and Brazil are benefiting from high commodity prices, their need
to invest these proceeds into infrastructure and long-term economic development is
crucial to securing their position on the global stage. With a caveat that Russia’s

developing alliance with China may bolster her commodities market due to China’s high
demand.
There are fundamental differences between “China and India on one hand, and
Russia and Brazil on the other , in that the former are competing with the west for
"intellectual capital" by seeking to build top- notch universities, investing in high, value-
added and technologically intensive industries and utilizing successful diasporas to
generate entrepreneurial activity in the mother country. Chinese officials, for example,
are committed to developing 100 world-class universities, with a focus on science and
engineering” (Lloyd, 2006, p. 17).
“To date, the scale of China’s economy and pace of its development has out-
distanced those of its BRIC peers. China alone contributed more than half of the BRIC
countries’ share and greater than 15 percent of the growth in world economic output
from 2000 to 2008” (Shappell, 2011).
China’s discipline and methodical and meticulous planning, coupled with her
numerous entrées into both emerging and developed markets and her strategic
partnering with Russia, provide a glimpse into her longer term objectives. The coming
years will most likely see China power its way up the value-added chain and develop its
huge domestic market to become an even more vital global player.

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