Brexit and beyond: Issues for charities and volunteering
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NCVO's director of public policy Karl Wilding's presentation to the national volunteering forum on 15 September 2016.
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Brexit and beyond: Issues for charities and volunteering
- 1. BREXIT AND BEYOND: ISSUES FOR CHARITIES AND VOLUNTEERING KARL WILDING TWITTER: @KARLWILDING NCVO PUBLIC POLICY & VOLUNTEERING WWW.NCVO.ORG.UK/NCVO- VOLUNTEERING SEPTEMBER 2016
- 2. ISSUES FACING CHARITIES AND VOLUNTEERING • New government • ‘Domestic’ issues • Brexit and its impact
- 3. THE NEW GOVERNMENT • Theresa May new PM • Immediate pressure to invoke Article 50 • Immediate pressure from unsatisfied (leaderless) Brexiteers • Immediate pressure on immigration (hard Brexit?) • Possibly more pressure to call an election
- 4. LONG-TERM OUTLOOK: CONTINUING POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY • Early election looking less likely, but don’t rule out • Autumn statement/emergency budget is the key economic event • Party splits/realignment highly unlikely, but again don’t rule out
- 5. IT’S NOT JUST BREXIT: ISSUES FACING CHARITIES AND VOLUNTEERING • ‘Domestic’ issues • Fundraising (still) • Trustees and governance • Voice and campaigning • Volunteering and social action • Regulation • Public trust and confidence
- 8. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CHARITIES AND VOLUNTEERING? • Department for Exiting the EU: immediate need to highlight issues for negotiation • Employees and volunteers: uncertainty/fear • Importance of providing a strong, independent and robust voice in protecting rights • Treasury: immediate need to highlight fiscal/financial issues • Access & priority: likely to be difficult; government & parliament logjam • Opposition more open to support
- 9. DO YOU TRUST INSTITUTIONS? IT DEPENDS… Source: Edelman Trust Barometer http://edelman.edelman1.netdna-cdn.com/assets/uploads/2016/01/2016-Edelman-Trust-Barometer-Global-_- Mounting-Trust-Inequality.pdf
- 10. A DIVIDED SOCIO-POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
- 13. SOCIAL ATTITUDES, POST-BREXIT: IT’S COMPLICATED, BEYOND LEFT AND RIGHT Source: SMF/Opinium http://opinium.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Dead-Centre- British-politics4_lr.pdf
- 14. IMMIGRATION AND SOCIAL COHESION Chuka Umunna on the public’s concerns about immigration: “we came up with accountants’ answers to deep cultural issues”
- 15. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CHARITIES AND VOLUNTEERING? • Febrile environment: many issues are politicised • Need for visible leadership in some communities • Immediate impact on organisations that work on equality and diversity • Risk that charities are perceived to represent only the metropolitan elite • Need to build trust between communities more important than ever
- 19. FIND US AT TWITTER: @NCVOVOLUNTEERS WWW.NCVO.ORG.UK/NCVO-VOLUNTEERING IF YOU WANT A REGULAR FEED OF INSIGHT AND THE BEST SUPPORT, PLEASE STAY IN TOUCH WITH US!
Editor's Notes
- Won’t spend too long on this, as you’ve probably all been following the news, but just to give a sense of where we are: Conservatives are electing a new leader, who will become Prime Minister – this is going to give us a better idea of what any deal with the EU might look like, and what the priorities of a post-Brexit world might be We also have significant uncertainty over the Labour leadership – latest And of all this is going on with a backdrop of economic uncertainty
- What does this mean for charities? We’ll have a new Prime Minister for charities to look to influence, and a new dept (DCMS), which might be a positive opportunity Probably too early to say what their policy programmes might mean for the voluntary sector, but all the candidates have talked about social justice, though focusing on different areas. At her campaign launch, Theresa May talked about a ‘programme of serious social reform’ highlighting inequalities around class and race. Some evidence of support for work with charities: violence against women and girls; human trafficking Wont be easy going for May though: Pressure for hard brexit Public opinion on immigration is firmly take back control – pollsters say they are prepared to sacrifice national wealth for this control (ie leave single market) Small majority – grammar schools argument shows this is fragile
- It’s quite dangerous at the moment to think about long-term politics, but will do my best to sketch out next six months. In the immediate aftermath of the referendum, there was a lot of speculation about a snap general election in the autumn. This is looking increasingly unlikely – it would inevitably be a big risk for a new prime minister, despite polls suggesting a three figure majority for the tories Autumn statement is next big event: interesting that just as May distancing herself from cameronism, Hammond is distancing himself from Osborne. Might suggest some loosening of austerity economics and a recognition that Keynisan demand management has a role? (esp as near zero interest rates and increasing scepticism re QE mean that monetary policy has nowhere left to go) A quick word on other parties: Corbyn likely to remain leader, but not clear that PLP will function as an effective opposition (Britain Thinks reckon the public are concerned about the lack of opposition) UKIP likely to morph into a new english nationalist party that targets labour northern heartlands? Scottish secession off the agenda
- For the volunteering forum, worth thinking about: Volunteer fundraisers Trustees are volunteers NCS bill
- Brexit: the single most complicated, difficult question facing the country (David Davis) Now time to move on from leave/remain – the challenge now is that a divisive referendum, not to mention a full-scale revolt from those disaffected by politics/elites, revealed deeper divisions in the country that we either didn’t know existed or ignored This happened on our watch, and there are questions about who we as the sector are that we must answer if we are to understand why we didn’t see it coming. (Most charity people are remainers) On the upside, the fact that many charities didn’t campaign in the referendum might mean that they have no baggage in their work to help put the country back together again
- And here is the challenge in a nutshell: its very difficult to bridge between different very different perspectives Most obvious division is between access to the single market (free movement of people is mandatory for this) vs ‘take back control’ of immigration levels
- I will just finish up with a few things that I think we will see and that charities can take advantage of. Firstly party lines are continuing to break down somewhat. Party colleagues are being publically critical of each other, and I think it’s quite likely that at least some of this will be translated into a greater preparedness to vote against the party line. And as new faultlines start to form away from the traditional left-right economic arguments, charities who understand these new political dynamics will be able to ensure their messages are better tailored. Parliament remains influential – I don’t think there is any desire to overturn the referendum result, but without a clear consensus from the public on what Brexit should mean practically, MPs are prepared to fight for their vision of what Brexit should look like – the difficult reception for the government in refusing to guarantee EU nationals currently living in the UK will be able to stay is I think only the first example of this.
- This next section is about broader social attitudes: what you might call the UK’s version of culture wars Many people generally speaking are not trusting of institutions – government and NGOs (see excellent IfG event on do people still trust experts?) Building trust and reciprocity has to be at the heart of volunteering and vol orgs
- Areas that benefited heavily from EU structural funds voted to leave
- Source: Ashcroft Polling
- When you ask questions about issues then categorise according to responses, the political right is in the ascendancy; the left is fragmented
- But its not as simple as left or right – people hold views from both sides
- Quote: at the SMF/Opinium event ‘Dead Centre’
- Welsh Polish Association in Llanelli found this note pinned on their door this morning.
- Source: https://twitter.com/bristol247/status/747473344153296896