BoBT - Thinking Fast
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The document contains graphs showing the total gross box office revenues for each film in the Police Academy franchise and for films directed by Steven Spielberg. It also contains several short statements or phrases related to decision making, risk, and innovation.
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BoBT - Thinking Fast
- 1. MAC EMM
- 2. Fast : System 1 2+2 =
- 3. Slow : System 2 157 x 24 =
- 5. Steve’s Law
- 6. The Guttenberg Principle $90,000,000.00 $80,000,000.00 Police Academy $70,000,000.00 U.S. Total Gross ($) Police Academy 2: Their First Assignment $60,000,000.00 Police Academy 3: Back in Training $50,000,000.00 Police Academy 4: Citizens on Patrol $40,000,000.00 Police Academy 5: Assignment: Miami Beach $30,000,000.00 Police Academy 6: City Under Siege $20,000,000.00 Police Academy 7: Mission to Moscow $10,000,000.00 $0.00 Data Source: http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/series/PoliceAcademy.php
- 7. 500,000,000 450,000,000 The Spielberg Principle The Sugarland Express Jaws Close Encounters of the Third Kind 400,000,000 1941 500,000,000 Raiders of the Lost Ark ET: The Extra-Terrestrial 350,000,000 450,000,000 Twilight Zone: The Movie Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom 400,000,000 The Color Purple 300,000,000 Empire of the Sun U.S. Total Gross ($) Always 350,000,000 Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade 250,000,000 Hook 300,000,000 Schindler's List 200,000,000 Jurassic Park 250,000,000 Amistad The Lost World: Jurassic Park 150,000,000 Saving Private Ryan 200,000,000 Artificial Intelligence: AI Catch Me if You Can 150,000,000 100,000,000 Minority Report The Terminal 100,000,000 Munich 50,000,000 The War of the Worlds Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull 50,000,000 War Horse 0 The Adventures of Tintin 0 Films directed in date ascending order Data Source: http://www.the-numbers.com/people/directors/SSPIE.php
- 8. Fast can be better
- 9. We’re scared
- 10. We rationalise
- 11. So we play it safe
- 12. Testing can prevent the bad
- 13. The safe option Lunch Food Satisfices Easy Low Risk
- 15. But may prevent successes
- 16. We create this comfort zone
- 17. If we always did this
- 18. We’d prevent the good
- 19. “Learn by doing, and by falling over”
- 20. “It is possible that pre-testing versus judgment is the greatest unresolved advertising dilemma?”
- 21. Sometimes we just know
- 22. Don’t let slow stand in the way… THINK
Editor's Notes
- Need to edit
- 2 – If I ask you what 2+2 is you know it’s 4 without having to work it out.This knowing without knowing why/how is often referred to as fast thinking! Or by Daniel Kahneman as system1 and is widely recognised across economic and scientific fields Fast – instinctive, automatic, impulsive, unconscious – those things you can’t quite put your finger on. E.g. the fireman who leaves the burning building because he just knew it was about to crumble
- 3 – However 17x24 you’d have to think about and work out – or consult your iphone!What is known as the slower system 2 is the system of active thoughtThe things you are aware of, can explain and talk about
- 4 – Slow is alright - Obviously because we can explain and rationalise which is why clients like itWe’re taught at school to think slow, show our working and be able to explain the answerBut it’s about as mind numbing as this image
- This is slow thinking, there was a Bus opp to make money
- Rejected offer to direct Jaws 2 after becoming a household name of the back of Jaws, becoming one of America’s youngest Millionaires and the film receiving 3 academy awards. – To make Close Encounters (written and Directed) instead which was inspired by his first independent film he directed and wrote at 16 (140min film) called ‘Firelight’ – Firelight cost $500 and made a $1 profit1941 big budgeted World War II movie made a small profit for Columbia and Universal – although mainly seen as a disappointment, mainly with the critics Schindlers List (1965) – Made non commercial, very personal and away from the pressures of ROI
- But we can’t always explain it – it relies on instinct
- 8 – We’re scared & risk averse so we tend to play it safe
- 9 – We feel compelled to analyse & rationalise everything
- Creating a safe zone on graph – by analysing we minimise the fails But we also minimise the big wins/success which come from thinking fast/taking a riskSome times just need to take a risk
- 12 – Lunch we go for the safe option : sandwich from Pret becauseIt’s a rational choice – standard lunch food, it’s inexpensiveIt does the job – not the nicest lunch we could have had but we don’t aim to optimise we only aim to SatisficeIt adheres to all those BE principles of minimising mental effort and most of all it’s low risk
- 13 - It prevents disasters such as this
- 14 – but could also stand in the way of something like this
- 15 – By over analysing and playing it safe yes we omit many failures But we also minimise the big wins/success which come from thinking fast/taking a risk
- 16/17 – if we always did this we wouldn’t have had the likes of the Trunkie – famously called a bad idea from the supposed experts on Dragons Den
- 16/17 – if we always did this we wouldn’t have had the likes of the Trunkie – famously called a bad idea from the supposed experts on Dragons Den
- We’d never have had the Trunki (famously quwashed by Dragons Den)
- ok we wouldn’t have had virgin brides or vodka but we also wouldn’t have had Virgin trains, planes or activeYou learn by doing and falling over
- Famous example, One of the riskiest and most under tested ads of all time was also one of the most successfulIrony – ‘drinking slow’ so not necessarily ‘thinking slow’AMV surfer ad pre-testing struggles
- Sometimes we just know! Despite the facts and figures we should allow our fast thoughts to over ride the slowThe most widely known anecdote about Archimedes tells of how he invented a method for determining the volume of an object with an irregular shape. According to Vitruvius, a votive crown for a temple had been made for King Hiero II, who had supplied the pure gold to be used, and Archimedes was asked to determine whether some silver had been substituted by the dishonest goldsmith.Archimedes had to solve the problem without damaging the crown, so he could not melt it down into a regularly shaped body in order to calculate its density. While taking a bath, he noticed that the level of the water in the tub rose as he got in, and realized that this effect could be used to determine the volume of the crown. For practical purposes water is incompressible, so the submerged crown would displace an amount of water equal to its own volume. By dividing the mass of the crown by the volume of water displaced, the density of the crown could be obtained. This density would be lower than that of gold if cheaper and less dense metals had been added. Archimedes then took to the streets naked, so excited by his discovery that he had forgotten to dress, crying "Eureka!" (Greek: "εὕρηκα!," meaning "I have found it!"). The test was conducted successfully, proving that silver had indeed been mixed in.
- 20 - Sometimes we just know! Despite the facts and figures we should allow our fast thoughts to over ride the slow rationality