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Cleveland Research Company Stock Pitch 2016
Garrett Stein | Marc Feldman | Tyler Schroeder
NASDAQ: BBRY
Index
2
3 - Investment Thesis
4 - Company Overview
6 - Industry Overview
8 - Key Drivers
11 - Valuation
14 - Final Thoughts
15 - Appendix
Investment Thesis
Blackberry is a company in transition, set to capitalize upon the
increasing digitalization of daily life.
3
Increased need for cybersecurity
in an ever hostile world and a
rapidly expanding Internet of
Things, call demand for software
solutions
Increasing BlackBerry software
and enterprise solution are ready
to support both public and private
sector organizations
BlackBerry’s transition away from
mobile device production is
nearly complete which will
increase profitability, a factor not
realized by much of the market
1
3
2
We recommend BlackBerry as a BUY with a 12 month price target of
$12.95, representing a 48% upside from their current price of $8.73
Company Overview
Company Description
• Headquartered in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada; offices in
North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific
• BlackBerry is a technological company catering to both
consumers and public/private sector businesses
• Solution for Enterprise, Messaging, Internet of Thing (IoT),
& Smartphones
• Traded on both NASDAQ: BBRY and TSX: BB
52 Week Stock Performance
Key Stock Statistics Profile
4
Operating Divisions
Enterprise Software - Secure. Connect. Mobilize
• BlackBerry offers comprehensive, cloud-enabled software aimed at
managing and securing the Enterprise of Things
• BlackBerry Secure, based on BlackBerry mobile software security
platform
• BlackBerry software allows enterprises to transmit sensitive data
confidentially and reliably
• Provide enterprise assessments regarding best practices in security
Messaging – Secure Communication & Collaboration
• Encrypted Voice and Messaging
• BBM Enterprise: Provides an enhanced security model for BBM
messages and video
• SecuSuite: Software-based encryption
• BlackBerry Connect: Integrates common EIM solutions,
allowing for secure communication and data use
• AtHoc: Unifies crisis communications and incident mangement
• Business-Class Email and Mobile
• BlackBerry Work: Mobile email, calendar and contacts
• BlackBerry Share: App-level encryption and data protection
• BlackBerry Connect: Real time access to contacts and
messaging
IoT
• Blackberry IoT Platform simplifies data ownership and control
• Trailer, Chassis, & Container Tracking
• Software Update Management through wireless
Smartphones
• Four Android Powered SmartPhones
• Two BlackBerry 10 OS Powered Phones
• Production, distribution licensed to foreign producers, actual
smartphone production ceased
5
Industry Overview
Key Trends
• Emerging IoT, allowing for the connection of devices, with the devices
producing data
• Increasing card/non-cash payments, greater demand for card services
• Private Sector cybersecurity issues, driving demand for solutions
• Increased government spending on cyberattack prevention
• Exponential development in self driving cars
Market-Share
Key Statistics
• Cybercrime damage costs to hit $6 trillion annually by 2021
• Cybersecurity industry expected to grow over 10% yearly, exceed $1 Trillion
• Cyber attacks to reach 4 billion people by 2020
• Up to 200 billion IoT devices will need securing by 2020
• $1.7 Trillion in IoT spending by 2020
• 90% of cars will be connected to IoT by 2020
6
Cybersecurity Industry Market Data
7
Key Drivers in Cyber Security
• BlackBerry has recently received the FedRamp and Authority to Operate certificates from the U.S. Government
• Allows them to compete for and secure more U.S. cybersecurity and cloud solutions contracts
• Also gives services credibility with other governments, increasing potential for international sales
• BlackBerry has recently landed many key cyber security contracts
• DHL, Mitsubishi Financial, Nationwide
• Giuliani Partners, headed by CEO and Trump Ally Rudy Giuliani, recently chose Blackberry’s security solution
platform Blackberry Secure to support its consulting practice with government enterprise customers, according to
Blackberry CEO John Chen
• Current administration has shown semblances of favoritism already, which bodes well for Blackberry
• Increased defense and cybersecurity spending within current administration puts BlackBerry products and
services in contention for government contracts
8
Internet of Things Key Drivers
• Blackberry’s QNX Operating System commands 47% of market share for IOT car software (navigation, navigation,
telematics, entertainment, etc.)
• Software used by GM (OnStar), Ford (Sync), Toyota (Touch ‘N’ Go), and many more
• Closest competitor is Linux, which commands 20% of market share
• Currently dominating smart car market
• Expect 36 million new licenses to be sold this year
• Receive royalties between $5 and $15 for each vehicle
• Security will be vital for OS in Self-Driving Cars for safety and peace-of-mind of consumers, and Blackberry excels at
Software Security
• QNX Neutrino RTOS handles time-sensitive tasks in milliseconds, which competitors currently can’t do; positions them
well for emergence of self-driving cars
• Proven Combination of Security Expertise and Processing Capability puts Blackberry in great position to be leaders in
self-driving car market
• Over 10 million self-driving cars expected to be on road by 2020
9
Smartphones Key Drivers
• In 2007, 55% of Market Share, and as of 2017, market share is at 0.0481% for phones
• Market share for Mobile OS is at just around 0.1%
• Blackberry Management realizes phones are not future of firm
• In September, Blackberry announced it would outsource phones to a third party, shifting from producing the
hardware to a licensing model
• This frees up intellectual and financial resources to go towards their strong push into cybersecurity and Internet of
Things software
• Blackberry-branded Android phones still selling, though with unimpressive numbers
• Despite disappointing sales, Blackberry has drastically reduced their Value-at-Risk by switching to a licensing
model which requires them to place no capital into manufacturing, distributing, or selling phones.
10
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
• Good Liquidity
• Shift away from mobile devices
• Expertise in Cyber Security
• High market share in IoT
• High gross margins on software
Weaknesses
• Continued involvement in mobile devices
• Contract losses, loss of market share
• Brand perception as smartphone maker, rather than
software/cybersecurity firm
Opportunities
• Further growth of IoT devices, self driving cars in
particular
• Licenses from government, increasing potential of
contracts
• Increasing need for cyber security solutions
Threats
• Competitors in IoT take market share
• Technological growth exceeding rate of development
• Talent loss to other firms
11
Valuation
Comparable Firms Analysis
• EV/Revenue used to derive
an implied share price
• Implied share price mean of
$20.49
EV Multiples
DCF Method
• Share price derived through
EBIDTA Multiples Table
• Implied share price range of
$7.97 - $11.15
DCF
12
Valuation (Continued)
13
$37.66
$11.15
$6.89
$15.99
$6.68
$8.73
$7.97
$5.12
$11.40
$5.12
- - $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00
EV/Revenue
DCF - Base
DCF - Bear
DCF - Bull
Perpetuity
Share Price
Football Field Valuation
Final Thoughts
Blackberry is a company in transition, set to capitalize upon the
increasing digitalization of daily life.
14
Increased need for cybersecurity
in an ever hostile world and a
rapidly expanding Internet of
Things, call demand for software
solutions
Increasing BlackBerry software
and enterprise solution are ready
to support both public and private
sector organizations
BlackBerry’s transition away from
mobile device production is
nearly complete which will
increase profitability, a factor not
realized by much of the market
1
3
2
We recommend BlackBerry as a BUY with a 12 month price target of
$12.95, representing a 48% upside from their current price of $8.73
Appendix
15
Valuation Tables
16
Pro Forma Income Statement
17
Pro Forma Balance Sheet
18
Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement
19

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BlackBerry Stock Pitch

  • 1. Cleveland Research Company Stock Pitch 2016 Garrett Stein | Marc Feldman | Tyler Schroeder NASDAQ: BBRY
  • 2. Index 2 3 - Investment Thesis 4 - Company Overview 6 - Industry Overview 8 - Key Drivers 11 - Valuation 14 - Final Thoughts 15 - Appendix
  • 3. Investment Thesis Blackberry is a company in transition, set to capitalize upon the increasing digitalization of daily life. 3 Increased need for cybersecurity in an ever hostile world and a rapidly expanding Internet of Things, call demand for software solutions Increasing BlackBerry software and enterprise solution are ready to support both public and private sector organizations BlackBerry’s transition away from mobile device production is nearly complete which will increase profitability, a factor not realized by much of the market 1 3 2 We recommend BlackBerry as a BUY with a 12 month price target of $12.95, representing a 48% upside from their current price of $8.73
  • 4. Company Overview Company Description • Headquartered in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada; offices in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific • BlackBerry is a technological company catering to both consumers and public/private sector businesses • Solution for Enterprise, Messaging, Internet of Thing (IoT), & Smartphones • Traded on both NASDAQ: BBRY and TSX: BB 52 Week Stock Performance Key Stock Statistics Profile 4
  • 5. Operating Divisions Enterprise Software - Secure. Connect. Mobilize • BlackBerry offers comprehensive, cloud-enabled software aimed at managing and securing the Enterprise of Things • BlackBerry Secure, based on BlackBerry mobile software security platform • BlackBerry software allows enterprises to transmit sensitive data confidentially and reliably • Provide enterprise assessments regarding best practices in security Messaging – Secure Communication & Collaboration • Encrypted Voice and Messaging • BBM Enterprise: Provides an enhanced security model for BBM messages and video • SecuSuite: Software-based encryption • BlackBerry Connect: Integrates common EIM solutions, allowing for secure communication and data use • AtHoc: Unifies crisis communications and incident mangement • Business-Class Email and Mobile • BlackBerry Work: Mobile email, calendar and contacts • BlackBerry Share: App-level encryption and data protection • BlackBerry Connect: Real time access to contacts and messaging IoT • Blackberry IoT Platform simplifies data ownership and control • Trailer, Chassis, & Container Tracking • Software Update Management through wireless Smartphones • Four Android Powered SmartPhones • Two BlackBerry 10 OS Powered Phones • Production, distribution licensed to foreign producers, actual smartphone production ceased 5
  • 6. Industry Overview Key Trends • Emerging IoT, allowing for the connection of devices, with the devices producing data • Increasing card/non-cash payments, greater demand for card services • Private Sector cybersecurity issues, driving demand for solutions • Increased government spending on cyberattack prevention • Exponential development in self driving cars Market-Share Key Statistics • Cybercrime damage costs to hit $6 trillion annually by 2021 • Cybersecurity industry expected to grow over 10% yearly, exceed $1 Trillion • Cyber attacks to reach 4 billion people by 2020 • Up to 200 billion IoT devices will need securing by 2020 • $1.7 Trillion in IoT spending by 2020 • 90% of cars will be connected to IoT by 2020 6
  • 8. Key Drivers in Cyber Security • BlackBerry has recently received the FedRamp and Authority to Operate certificates from the U.S. Government • Allows them to compete for and secure more U.S. cybersecurity and cloud solutions contracts • Also gives services credibility with other governments, increasing potential for international sales • BlackBerry has recently landed many key cyber security contracts • DHL, Mitsubishi Financial, Nationwide • Giuliani Partners, headed by CEO and Trump Ally Rudy Giuliani, recently chose Blackberry’s security solution platform Blackberry Secure to support its consulting practice with government enterprise customers, according to Blackberry CEO John Chen • Current administration has shown semblances of favoritism already, which bodes well for Blackberry • Increased defense and cybersecurity spending within current administration puts BlackBerry products and services in contention for government contracts 8
  • 9. Internet of Things Key Drivers • Blackberry’s QNX Operating System commands 47% of market share for IOT car software (navigation, navigation, telematics, entertainment, etc.) • Software used by GM (OnStar), Ford (Sync), Toyota (Touch ‘N’ Go), and many more • Closest competitor is Linux, which commands 20% of market share • Currently dominating smart car market • Expect 36 million new licenses to be sold this year • Receive royalties between $5 and $15 for each vehicle • Security will be vital for OS in Self-Driving Cars for safety and peace-of-mind of consumers, and Blackberry excels at Software Security • QNX Neutrino RTOS handles time-sensitive tasks in milliseconds, which competitors currently can’t do; positions them well for emergence of self-driving cars • Proven Combination of Security Expertise and Processing Capability puts Blackberry in great position to be leaders in self-driving car market • Over 10 million self-driving cars expected to be on road by 2020 9
  • 10. Smartphones Key Drivers • In 2007, 55% of Market Share, and as of 2017, market share is at 0.0481% for phones • Market share for Mobile OS is at just around 0.1% • Blackberry Management realizes phones are not future of firm • In September, Blackberry announced it would outsource phones to a third party, shifting from producing the hardware to a licensing model • This frees up intellectual and financial resources to go towards their strong push into cybersecurity and Internet of Things software • Blackberry-branded Android phones still selling, though with unimpressive numbers • Despite disappointing sales, Blackberry has drastically reduced their Value-at-Risk by switching to a licensing model which requires them to place no capital into manufacturing, distributing, or selling phones. 10
  • 11. SWOT Analysis Strengths • Good Liquidity • Shift away from mobile devices • Expertise in Cyber Security • High market share in IoT • High gross margins on software Weaknesses • Continued involvement in mobile devices • Contract losses, loss of market share • Brand perception as smartphone maker, rather than software/cybersecurity firm Opportunities • Further growth of IoT devices, self driving cars in particular • Licenses from government, increasing potential of contracts • Increasing need for cyber security solutions Threats • Competitors in IoT take market share • Technological growth exceeding rate of development • Talent loss to other firms 11
  • 12. Valuation Comparable Firms Analysis • EV/Revenue used to derive an implied share price • Implied share price mean of $20.49 EV Multiples DCF Method • Share price derived through EBIDTA Multiples Table • Implied share price range of $7.97 - $11.15 DCF 12
  • 13. Valuation (Continued) 13 $37.66 $11.15 $6.89 $15.99 $6.68 $8.73 $7.97 $5.12 $11.40 $5.12 - - $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 $30.00 $35.00 $40.00 EV/Revenue DCF - Base DCF - Bear DCF - Bull Perpetuity Share Price Football Field Valuation
  • 14. Final Thoughts Blackberry is a company in transition, set to capitalize upon the increasing digitalization of daily life. 14 Increased need for cybersecurity in an ever hostile world and a rapidly expanding Internet of Things, call demand for software solutions Increasing BlackBerry software and enterprise solution are ready to support both public and private sector organizations BlackBerry’s transition away from mobile device production is nearly complete which will increase profitability, a factor not realized by much of the market 1 3 2 We recommend BlackBerry as a BUY with a 12 month price target of $12.95, representing a 48% upside from their current price of $8.73
  • 17. Pro Forma Income Statement 17
  • 18. Pro Forma Balance Sheet 18
  • 19. Pro Forma Cash Flow Statement 19