This slide deck was prepared in the spring of 2017 for the CRC Stock Pitch Competition. The team used a DCF model and comparables, among other methods, to value and analyze the company. One of the main arguments for growth in addition to the drivers was the undervalued Euro, and since presentation, has corrected itself and appreciated in value.
15th Annual William Blair Investment Banking Case CompetitionRobertNahigian
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15th Annual William Blair Investment Banking Case CompetitionRobertNahigian
Our team served as sell side advisors by. deriving the intrinsic value of fictitious company using four valuation methods to create a cohesive slide deck that defined the firm’s market position.
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William Blair Investment Banking Case Competition Jake White
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Highlights : Ferrari reported a record third quarter Q03 – 2017:
• Total shipments of 2,046 units, up 68 units (+3.4%)
• Net revenues grew to Euro 836 million, up 6.7% (+9.3% at constant currencies)
• Adjusted EBITDA of Euro 266 million, margin at 31.8%
• Adjusted EBIT of Euro 202 million
• Adjusted net profit up 24% to Euro 141 million
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http://pwc.to/LWb0fa
A l’ouverture du salon de New Delhi et en amont de celui de Genève, l’institut d’analyse PwC Autofacts publie ses dernières estimations : la production automobile mondiale devrait atteindre 87,4 millions de véhicules légers en 2014, soit une hausse de 5,8% par rapport à 2013.
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and communication in 2014. As the first agency to devise trend forecasts exclusively for the automotive
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http://pwc.to/1cligbS
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PHILIP NOTHARD Customer Insight & Strategy Director - UK
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f you offer a service on the web, odds are that someone will abuse it. Be it an API, a SaaS, a PaaS, or even a static website, someone somewhere will try to figure out a way to use it to their own needs. In this talk we'll compare measures that are effective against static attackers and how to battle a dynamic attacker who adapts to your counter-measures.
About the Speaker
===============
Diogo Sousa, Engineering Manager @ Canonical
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Introducing Acorn Recovery as a Service, a simple, fast, and secure managed disaster recovery (DRaaS) by IP ServerOne. A DR solution that helps restore your IT infra within minutes.
3. Strong performance to follow Q1 earningsInvestmentthesis
Production &
new vehicles
Production growth will drive sales as
Ferrari move towards their production cap
more rapidly then anticipated due to
market conditions
70th Anniversary vehicle introductions will
drive margin expansion
Growth in
North America
& Asia segments
Growth in Chinese/North American
markets will diversify sales, and favorable
exchange rates will increase sales
The China segments saw 15% unit growth
in 2016, with estimates seeing Asia account
for 30% of sales by 2020
Exchange rate
favorability
Q2 GDP data between U.S and Euro
countries will cause dollar to weaken to
Euro, appreciating U.S. price
Engine segment
growth
Engine segment will continue to grow due
to reentry of key buyers into the North
American sports car markets
Research and development costs will limit
barriers to entry in key markets
Key points
Valuation range
Recommend Ferrari as a Buy
following Q1 earnings reports with
a 12 month price target of $83,
representing a 24% return
Upside potential: 45%
Downside potential: -15%
Recommendation
$35 $45 $55 $65 $75 $85 $95 $105
52-week trading range
Comps: P/E
Comps: EV/EBITDA
DCF
Earnings Bear Case
Earnings Bull Case
Earnings Base Case
3
5. Macro corrections Q2 Intrinsic catalysts Q2 & Q3Buy Q1 earnings
Catalysts and drivers overviewInvestmentstrategy
Source: Company websites 5
Drivers
Macro Intrinsic
Overconfidence in U.S. markets and
under confidence in Euro markets
presents an investment opportunity with a
mid-year correction on imminent
Timed correctly, RACE presents a compelling investment opportunity
Difficult Q1 projections and fading stock
sentiment show a coming shift in
sentiment. Demand will remain strong
and special edition cars will boost margins
Even with upper quartile
projections, cannot reach Q1
Street estimates
Market will react poorly to US
under-performance and
welcome Euro stability
Market conditions and
anniversary cars will boost top
and bottom line numbers
6. Historic Euro valuation in USD
Strongly undervalued EuroInvestmentstrategy
How will this impact my share of RACE?
Appreciation to the Euro directly translates to a higher amount value in USD | a return to the 3-year
average would be a direct increase of 8% to share price
When will the market realize this and correct?
U.S. GDP growth numbers are failing to realize sought after growth. With no corporate tax cut in
sight, U.S. sentiment will look to drop on low Q2 GDP growth numers in July/August while Europe
is poised to release strong data
Will this deter spending and potentially inhibit growth?
NO: Ferrari competes in the ultra luxury good industry and its customers will buy
regardless of a 10-15% price increase | demand strongly outweighs supply
Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and EU European Commission Q1 Report 6
EU sentiment indicators
Price appreciation catalysts and commentary
5-year average
3-year average
current rate
U.S. appears to be approaching
saturation after two bullish
quarters | market unreactive to
slow wage growth and poor job
numbers—blind confidence
EU Manufacturing and
construction sectors confidence
indices broke 100 level
EU Economic Sentiment
Indicator at 109.1—nearing 9
year high
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
$1.15
$1.20
$1.25
$1.30
$1.35
$1.40
7. Intrinsic catalysts: hold your horsesInvestmentstrategy
Consistently raced past street estimates
Strong management and consistent large
beats have bolstered 2017 estimates
Hermes and LVMH as a proxy again
bolstered street expectations—too far
Increasing demand in luxury goods
spending has bolstered stock beyond
reasonable Q1 range
Q1 EPS will come up 15% short using
upper quartile growth estimates
Estimate a 10% downward yearly
revision and 1.5x multiple regression |
project an 11% slip to $63
Foreseeable correction creates a strong
buying opportunity as RACE is poised for a
strong H2
Same estimates result in a 12% beat
in Q2 & Q3 on current estimates
Our full year EPS estimates still 4%
above consensus
2017E: consensus jumps the gun Q1
2016 Street estimates vs. results
Sources: Team projections and company materials 7
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
1 2 3 4
Series1 Series2
30%
24%
17% 26%
$0.00
$0.10
$0.20
$0.30
$0.40
$0.50
$0.60
$0.70
$0.80
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Our Team Street
Street Actual
Q Q Q Q
(15%)
19% 21% (11%)
8. Strategy recapInvestmentstrategy
8
• Even with bold
projections,
cannot reach Q1
Street estimates
Q1 earnings
•Market will
react poorly to
US under-
performance and
welcome Euro
stability
Q2 economic
data
•Strong
continued
demand from
CN & US will
bolster results
Q2/Q3
earnings
10-15%
5-10%
Buy on Q1 earnings report to turn a 16% return into a 24% return
Even with upper
quartile projections,
cannot reach Q1
Street estimates
Market will react
poorly to US under-
performance and
welcome Euro
stability
Market conditions
and anniversary cars
will boost top and
bottom line numbers
10. Overall luxury industry to see
steadfast growth, driving demand
for absolute luxury cars globally
Luxury cars remained the top
performing segment in all luxury
goods, experiencing 8% growth
Ultra-Luxury Cars are produced
in relatively low numbers. Some
companies, like Ferrari, keep their
production levels under 10,000 in
order to avoid environmental
regulations
Ferrari offers the most models out
of the competitors and therefore
would have the opportunity for
expanding production within each
product line to increase overall
sales. This gives them the
maximum potential for growth
Ferrari: the ultimate luxury
0.00 €
200.00 €
400.00 €
600.00 €
800.00 €
1,000.00 €
1,200.00 €
2014 2015 2016
Industrydynamics
Luxury industry revenue growth
Luxury car industry growth
Commentary
( € in millions)
Sources: Company website, Bain & Co
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ferrari Luxury Performane Car Industry
FerrariUnits
LuxuryCarUnits
10
11. Competitor profileIndustrydynamics
Source: Company Websites
Competitor overview
Ferrari operates in the ultra-luxury car sector in
addition to producing engines and maintaining their
Formula One racing team, Scuderia Ferrari.
No single company directly competes with Ferrari in
all three of their main operating segments
Many of their competitors for luxury cars have
smaller production than Ferrari and less car lines
available for purchase.
Ferrari is able to provide the customer with the car
that fits their needs in a more timely manner. They
are also increasing their production yearly.
Highlight: Lamborghini / McLaren
Lamborghini:
Lamborghini was purchased by the VW’s Audi unit
in 1998 for USD $110 million.
Lamborghini has two series (Huracán and
Aventador) with each containing about 6 models.
Huracán Spyder recently won the Car of the Year
by Robb Report competition; one of the more
prestigious awards a luxury car can receive.
McLaren
Just opted out of building their own Formula 1
racing engine.
10 total models spread across 4 series.
Breadth of competition
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
McClaren
Lamborghini
Aston Martin
Rolls-Royce
Ferrari
Bentley
2016 production dispersion
11
13. Company overviewCompanyoverview
Distribution of revenue
Key statistics
TTM stock performance
Ferrari N.V. is an industry leader for
luxury vehicles and is well known
for their Formula One performance
and exclusivity.
Ferrari has also expanded into other
markets, including clothing apparel,
watches, video games, and they also
own the world’s largest indoor
theme park in Abu Dhabi.
Notable Shareholders: Exor N.V.
(23.5%), Piero Ferrari (10.0%), and
the General Public (57.4%).
Company description
Source: Company filings
-
2
4
6
8
10
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
10/21/15 4/21/16 10/21/16
Millions
Market Data Value
Current Price $71.89 TTM EV/EBITDA 14.7x
Market Cap. 1,358.2M EV/EBITDA 13.8x
Annual Dividend $0.64 TTM Price/Earnings 34.1x
Dividend Yield 0.88% FY Price/Earnings 29.7x
FCF per Basic Share $3.82 PEG 2.2x
Operations Capital Structure
Revenue 3,293.8M Debt 1,960.4M
EBITDA Margin 27.1% Cash & Equivalents 457.8M
Operating Margin 19.2% Quick Ratio 0.52x
Net Profit Margin 13.3% Current Ratio 0.54x
13
65%
17%
15%
3% Cars and car parts
Engines
Sponsorship,
commercial, and
brand
Other
14. OperationsCompanyoverview
Sample of new models
Car units sold
Breakdown of revenues
LaFerrari Aperta - The Aperta, the
spider-version of the LaFerrari, honors
Ferrari’s 70th Anniversary
812 Superfast - A V12 version of the
Berlinetta, the Superfast will
commemorate Ferrari’s 70th Anniversary
GTC4 Lusso T - A 3.9-liter
turbocharged V8 meant to be a daily driver
Geographic breakdown of revenue
Source: Company filings
45%
14%
8%
33%
EMEA APAC Greater China Americas
70%
11%
16%
3%
Cars and Parts Engines Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand Other
66%
15%
16%
3%
56%
27%
15%
2%
2016A 2017E 2019E
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
E5
Middle East
Americas
China
APAC
2016 2015 2014
14
15. Executives and initiativesCompanyoverview
Luxury car market performance
Growth initiatives
Strong 2016 Q4 performance
Key executives
Source: Investor relations and IBISWorld
Name Position
Sergio Marchionne
CEO, Executive Director, Chairman,
CEO of FCA
Piero Ferrari
Vice-Chairman, Non-Executive
Director
John Elkann
Vice-Chairman, Non-Executive
Director, CEO of EXOR, Chairman
of FCA
Piero Ferrari
Vice-Chairman, Non-Executive
Director
Ferrari is a market leader in Italy, USA,
China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand,
Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand.
Growth in engine sales
Attributed to success of Maserati and Alfa Romeo
sales
Highest-earning quarter in past two years
Higher than predicted EPS
Increased margins from previous quarters
Reduced hedging losses
Increase car production
Reduce material costs
Reduce currency hedges
Slowed R&D expenses
Growth in foreign markets
Release specialty cars to drive demand
15
Top 22 markets Europe Americas
Greater
China
APAC
16. Positioning analysisCompanyoverview
Source: Company materials
High barriers to entry and
established brand
High production capabilities relative
to key competitors
Diverse vehicle offerings
between special editions,
grand tourers and sports
cars
Production cap at approximately
10,000 cars before further emissions
standards are applied
Continued poor Formula 1
performance will hurt
advertising revenues
Unfavorable exchange rates
between the dollar and the
Euro
O
S
T
W
Naturally aspirated sports
car demand
Increased partnerships as
engine supplier for other
sports car providers
Market rebound in the European
union
Luxury SUV market
Increased production
capabilities from boutique
competitors
Environmental
regulations regarding
emissions and engine size
Unfavorable import tax regulations
in China
16
23. Strong performance to follow Q1 earningsFinalthoughts
Production &
new vehicles
Production growth will drive sales as
Ferrari move towards their production cap
more rapidly then anticipated due to
market conditions
70th Anniversary vehicle introductions will
drive margin expansion
Growth in
North America
& Asia segments
Growth in Chinese/North American
markets will diversify sales, and favorable
exchange rates will increase sales
The China segments saw 15% unit growth
in 2016, with estimates seeing Asia account
for 30% of sales by 2020
Exchange rate
favorability
Q2 GDP data between U.S and Euro
countries will cause dollar to weaken to
Euro, appreciating U.S. price
Engine segment
growth
Engine segment will continue to grow due
to reentry of key buyers into the North
American sports car markets
Research and development costs will limit
barriers to entry in key markets
Key Points
Valuation Range
Recommend Ferrari as a Buy
following Q1 earnings reports with
a 12 month price target of $83,
representing a 24% return
Upside potential: 45%
Downside potential: -15%
Recommendation
$35 $45 $55 $65 $75 $85 $95 $105
52-week trading range
Comps: P/E
Comps: EV/EBITDA
DCF
Earnings Bear Case
Earnings Bull Case
Earnings Base Case
23
25. Pro forma statement of incomeAppendix
25
Income Statement
(In thousands of €, except per share amount)
Historical Current Year Projected
Fiscal Year ended December 31, 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Revenue Streams
Cars and Spare Parts $1,943,729 $2,080,228 $2,180,045 $2,323,612 $2,456,839 $2,548,460 $2,630,726
Engines 311,155 218,657 337,924 522,093 806,633 1,246,248 1,925,453
Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand 416,673 441,128 488,514 547,136 605,909 670,996 743,074
Other 90,803 114,356 98,601 103,531 108,708 114,143 119,850
Net Revenues 2,762,360 2,854,369 3,105,084 3,494,507 3,978,089 4,579,846 5,419,104
Cost of Sales 1,505,889 1,498,806 1,579,690 1,747,254 1,989,044 2,289,923 2,709,552
Gross Profit 1,256,471 1,355,563 1,525,394 1,747,254 1,989,044 2,289,923 2,709,552
SG&A 300,090 338,626 295,242 366,923 417,699 480,884 569,006
R&D 540,833 561,582 613,635 699,163 805,861 939,212 1,124,870
Other expenses, net 26,080 11,035 24,501 20,754 11,813 13,600 16,092
Results from Investments - - 3,066 - - - -
EBIT 389,468 444,320 595,082 660,413 753,671 856,228 999,584
Net financial (expenses) income 8,765 (10,151) (27,729) (27,729) (27,729) (27,729) (27,729)
EBT 398,233 434,169 567,353 632,684 725,942 828,499 971,855
Taxes (133,218) (144,115) (167,635) (174,689) (200,360) (228,666) (268,232)
Net Income $265,015 $290,054 $399,718 457,996 $525,582 $599,833 $703,623
Non-Controllilng Interest (3,644) (2,238) (956) - - - -
Net Income Attributable to Owners $261,371 $287,816 $398,762 $457,996 $525,582 $599,833 $703,623
EPS per shre
Basic € 1.38 € 1.52 € 2.11 € 2.42 € 2.78 € 3.18 € 3.72
Shares Outsanding
Basic 188923 188923 188923 188923 188923 188923 188923
26. Selected income statement informationAppendix
26
Metrics 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
Cars and Spare Parts Revenue Growth 7.0% 4.8% 8.0% 5.7% 3.7% 3.2%
Engines Revenue Growth -29.7% 54.5% 54.5% 54.5% 54.5% 54.5%
Sponsorship, Commercial and Brand Rev Growth 5.9% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7%
Other Revenue Growth 25.9% -13.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
COGS as % of Net Sales 54.5% 52.5% 50.9% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0% 50.0%
SG&A as % of Revenues 10.9% 11.9% 9.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
R&D as % of sales 19.6% 19.7% 19.8% 20.0% 20.3% 20.5% 20.8%
Other expenses as % of sales 0.9% 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Per Unit Revenues
Car Shipments 7255 7664 8014 8523 8992 9306 9586
Shipment Growth Rate 5.6% 4.6% 6.3% 5.5% 3.5% 3.0%
Revenue Per Car $267.92 $271.43 $272.03 $272.63 $273.24 $273.84 $274.45
Return to Intrinsic Catalysts
27. WACC calculationAppendix
27
Return to DCF
WACC Calculation
Book Value of Debt € 1,848
Market Value of Equity € 12,799.53
Total Capital € 14,648
Beta 1.045
Market Risk Premium 8.0%
Risk Free Rate 2.4%
Cost of Equity 10.7%
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 2.1%
Tax Rate 29.5%
Cost of Debt 1.5%
WACC 9.6%