This document provides an updated forecast for base metal prices in 2012-2013. It predicts that aluminum prices will remain low until supply cuts improve the balance in early 2013. Copper prices are expected to average above $8,000/tonne due to an ongoing supply deficit. The nickel market continues to struggle with oversupply, though risks remain to the downside for supply.
The Chinese steel industry is facing significant challenges due to economic slowdown reducing demand. Steel production and consumption are expected to grow only moderately in 2012. Overcapacity remains a major issue, with inventories rising and profits declining sharply. Chinese steel makers are seeking to diversify into new business areas to remain profitable as consolidation in the sector progresses gradually. Smaller and less efficient steel producers and traders face risks of being forced out of the market.
This document provides an analysis of the copper market fundamentals and outlook for 2011. It discusses factors influencing copper prices such as supply disruptions, economic growth in China and the US, and declining inventory levels. Global copper demand is expected to increase by 4.5% in 2011, outpacing modest supply growth. A shortage of 400,000 tonnes of copper is forecasted for 2011 as demand growth outpaces refined production capacity. Copper prices are expected to increase over 2011 due to tightening supply and demand conditions.
This document discusses three macro trends in copper production and their implications for tellurium supply:
1) Concentrates will be redistributed to larger smelters and refineries in China and India, shifting tellurium production away from North America and Japan.
2) Pressure leaching will be more widely used to process anode slimes, improving tellurium recovery rates from slimes.
3) Non-conventional leaching processes like SX-EW will account for a larger share of refined copper capacity, changing tellurium supply dynamics.
The trends are expected to increase global tellurium production potential but will require coordination to fully realize this potential given the changing geographic distribution of copper refining.
Import prices for coal are likely to remain elevated in the current quarter according to India Ratings and Research. Strong power demand driven by industrial activity, winter demand, and supply concerns in major exporting countries are supporting high coal prices. Domestic coal production and offtake are expected to increase in the third quarter of FY22 due to sustained industrial activity and low coal inventory levels. However, a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in China or a slowdown in Chinese real estate could reduce coal consumption and potentially lead to softer prices. Corporates face challenges from high and volatile commodity prices, including coal, which may impact margins unless input costs are fully passed on to consumers.
The document summarizes the state of the global aluminum market in 2001-2002. It notes that demand for aluminum dropped 4% in 2001 due to slowing world economies. Excess production capacity drove prices lower, hurting aluminum producers. The US and Japan saw the largest declines in consumption. While China's production rose 19% in 2001, overall global supply declined 1.4 million tons due to production cuts. Russian aluminum producers fared relatively better with only a 1-2% drop in production, but still faced higher costs than Western competitors. The outlook for 2002 was uncertain with prices beginning to recover in late 2001.
Analyses of production costs,Aluminium Journal,July 2012gordju
The document analyzes production costs in the aluminum smelting industry. It discusses how costs vary significantly depending on region, with the lowest costs in the Persian Gulf and highest in parts of China, the US, and Europe. It examines how the major costs components are raw materials like alumina, electricity, and carbon, which each account for a significant portion of total costs. It also summarizes cost trends and challenges in key producing regions like China, Europe, and Russia.
This report provides an overview of the nickel market including details about production, consumption, and major producers. It notes that Indonesia implemented an export ban on nickel ore in January 2022, tightening supplies, while a mine closure in New Caledonia further disrupted production. These supply issues have caused nickel prices to surge over 45% since the start of the year. Looking ahead, prices may see short-term corrections if issues are resolved, but tight supplies from Indonesia are expected to support further upside in medium-term prices.
The Chinese steel industry is facing significant challenges due to economic slowdown reducing demand. Steel production and consumption are expected to grow only moderately in 2012. Overcapacity remains a major issue, with inventories rising and profits declining sharply. Chinese steel makers are seeking to diversify into new business areas to remain profitable as consolidation in the sector progresses gradually. Smaller and less efficient steel producers and traders face risks of being forced out of the market.
This document provides an analysis of the copper market fundamentals and outlook for 2011. It discusses factors influencing copper prices such as supply disruptions, economic growth in China and the US, and declining inventory levels. Global copper demand is expected to increase by 4.5% in 2011, outpacing modest supply growth. A shortage of 400,000 tonnes of copper is forecasted for 2011 as demand growth outpaces refined production capacity. Copper prices are expected to increase over 2011 due to tightening supply and demand conditions.
This document discusses three macro trends in copper production and their implications for tellurium supply:
1) Concentrates will be redistributed to larger smelters and refineries in China and India, shifting tellurium production away from North America and Japan.
2) Pressure leaching will be more widely used to process anode slimes, improving tellurium recovery rates from slimes.
3) Non-conventional leaching processes like SX-EW will account for a larger share of refined copper capacity, changing tellurium supply dynamics.
The trends are expected to increase global tellurium production potential but will require coordination to fully realize this potential given the changing geographic distribution of copper refining.
Import prices for coal are likely to remain elevated in the current quarter according to India Ratings and Research. Strong power demand driven by industrial activity, winter demand, and supply concerns in major exporting countries are supporting high coal prices. Domestic coal production and offtake are expected to increase in the third quarter of FY22 due to sustained industrial activity and low coal inventory levels. However, a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in China or a slowdown in Chinese real estate could reduce coal consumption and potentially lead to softer prices. Corporates face challenges from high and volatile commodity prices, including coal, which may impact margins unless input costs are fully passed on to consumers.
The document summarizes the state of the global aluminum market in 2001-2002. It notes that demand for aluminum dropped 4% in 2001 due to slowing world economies. Excess production capacity drove prices lower, hurting aluminum producers. The US and Japan saw the largest declines in consumption. While China's production rose 19% in 2001, overall global supply declined 1.4 million tons due to production cuts. Russian aluminum producers fared relatively better with only a 1-2% drop in production, but still faced higher costs than Western competitors. The outlook for 2002 was uncertain with prices beginning to recover in late 2001.
Analyses of production costs,Aluminium Journal,July 2012gordju
The document analyzes production costs in the aluminum smelting industry. It discusses how costs vary significantly depending on region, with the lowest costs in the Persian Gulf and highest in parts of China, the US, and Europe. It examines how the major costs components are raw materials like alumina, electricity, and carbon, which each account for a significant portion of total costs. It also summarizes cost trends and challenges in key producing regions like China, Europe, and Russia.
This report provides an overview of the nickel market including details about production, consumption, and major producers. It notes that Indonesia implemented an export ban on nickel ore in January 2022, tightening supplies, while a mine closure in New Caledonia further disrupted production. These supply issues have caused nickel prices to surge over 45% since the start of the year. Looking ahead, prices may see short-term corrections if issues are resolved, but tight supplies from Indonesia are expected to support further upside in medium-term prices.
India has become the world's fourth largest steel producer despite having low per capita steel consumption compared to other major economies. Steel production is expected to continue expanding rapidly to meet growing demand from industrialization and infrastructure development. While India has large iron ore reserves, it has limited coking coal and imports most of its needs, mainly from Australia. As India's economy develops, steel consumption and imports of coking coal and iron ore are projected to rise substantially.
This document provides an overview of the metal industry and analysis of Tata Steel Ltd. It begins with an introduction to the global metal sector and lists the top 10 mining companies by revenue. It then discusses the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on metal prices and industry. The document analyzes key metal commodities, performs a Porter's Five Forces analysis of the industry, and lists new developments. It provides an in-depth company analysis of Tata Steel Ltd, including financials, ratios, management, and compares it to competitors. The document concludes with benefits and how to perform a competitive landscape analysis.
This document provides an overview of the global aluminium industry. It discusses key trends such as rising global production and consumption of aluminium from 2012-2018. China dominates the industry as the largest producer and consumer. The document also outlines opportunities in the industry such as growth in the Middle East and new application areas, as well as challenges around price volatility, high inventory levels, and high energy costs. The way forward discusses continued demand growth, especially in emerging markets, and the need for innovative production technologies to reduce energy usage and environmental impacts.
The document summarizes developments in global commodity markets in 2012. It finds that after remaining flat in 2011, the IMF's commodity price index fell in the second quarter of 2012 before rebounding in the third quarter. Energy and base metal prices declined sharply in the second quarter but have since increased, while food prices remained flat until rising in the third quarter. Fluctuations in global demand have played a key role in commodity price movements, while supply factors specific to energy and food markets also contributed to price changes. The outlook for further commodity price fluctuations remains uncertain.
Impact of the Manufacturing Renaissance from Energy Intensive SectorsMarcellus Drilling News
A report released March 20, 2014 from the U.S. Conference of Mayors that shows the impact of abundant, inexpensive natural gas is having and will continue to have to 2020 and beyond on nine key manufacturing sectors. The report shows that 72% of the benefit from cheap shale gas will go to 363 metropolitan areas across the United States. That is, America's major cities are the beneficiaries, in both jobs and economic impact, from abundant nautral gas.
Microsoft word mmx earnings release 2 q12 versão final - inglesmmxriweb
- MMX Mineração e Metálicos S.A. released its results for the 2nd quarter of 2012, showing signs of recovery after weak 1Q12 results due to heavy rains. Key highlights included obtaining an installation license for the Serra Azul expansion and resuming iron ore shipments from Corumbá.
- Total iron ore sales were 1.7 million tons, up 22% from 1Q12. However, global economic uncertainties and lower Chinese demand negatively impacted iron ore prices.
- EBITDA was R$13.9 million, up 231% from 1Q12 but down 82% from 2Q11. The company expects global steel production to remain stable in 2012 and resume
Responsible investment & governance annual report 2012Nordea Bank
This document provides an overview of Nordea's responsible investment activities in 2012, including engagements with companies on ESG issues and participation in PRI initiatives. Some key points:
- Nordea conducts in-depth ESG analysis of companies and engages in dialogues with companies identified for improvement in order to influence positive change.
- In 2012 Nordea successfully ended 5 engagements as companies addressed norm violations and improved sustainability practices. New engagements addressed labor rights, indigenous rights, and environmental issues.
- Nordea participated in 44 dialogues with Nordic and global companies to discuss ESG issues and opportunities for improvement.
- Through the PRI, Nordea supports initiatives on sustainable fisheries
Nordeas rapport om samhällsansvar, eller Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), publicerades i veckan och visar bland annat att ansvarsfulla investerare är intresserade av Nordea.
Responsible investment & governance annual report 2011Nordea Bank
This document discusses Nordea's commitment to responsible investing and governance. It highlights achievements in 2011, such as engaging with companies that violated human rights and exerting influence on how companies manage environmental, social and governance risks. It also summarizes Nordea's responsible investing framework, products that integrate ESG factors, and efforts to build knowledge through research and team awards. Key company examples that demonstrate good ESG performance are provided.
This document provides an economic outlook for various regions and countries. It notes that there are signs of improvement in the global economy, but the recovery will be slow. Monetary policy will remain expansive for much of the world over the forecast period, while fiscal policy and weak credit growth will dampen the global recovery in the near term. For the euro area, the outlook is for a gradual recovery after a decline in GDP in early 2012, helped by a weaker euro improving competitiveness but also making high oil prices more negative. Germany is expected to continue leading growth in Europe.
The Chinese steel industry is facing significant challenges due to economic slowdown reducing demand. Steel production and consumption are expected to grow only moderately in 2012. Overcapacity remains a major issue, exacerbated by weakening demand, and inventories have risen sharply. Profits for Chinese steel producers decreased dramatically in the first half of 2012. The government is pushing for industry consolidation but with limited success so far. Smaller, less efficient steel mills and traders face difficulties servicing debts and may be forced out of the market.
The aluminum industry ceo agenda 2013 - by BCGJPStrategy
The aluminum industry crisis was caused primarily by oversupply driven by China's rapid expansion of aluminum production capacity. Between 2000-2012, Chinese aluminum demand grew at nearly 16% annually, accounting for 45% of global demand, while demand outside China grew just over 1% annually. However, the industry failed to predict the scale of China's production increases, which led to a global oversupply. As Chinese aluminum remained self-sufficient and inventories grew, prices remained low despite strong overall demand growth. The crisis reflects a long-term structural change of China's dominance in production that has depressed prices industry-wide.
How will raw material prices and other factor cost drivers influence the overall of cost of goods sold for product being sourced out of China? This outlook gives our readers a clear understanding of the key factors that drive production costs in China for hardline manufacturers. We review global demand, currency markets, metals pricing and freight and consider how the outlook for each of these drivers will influence the cost of hardlines manufactured in China. This semi-annual publication is distributed to our clients and offers a summary of our in depth research. It is used by Sertus and our clients to extract savings from more effective purchasing management and deliveries given the specific outlook for each segment covered.
The document is a presentation by Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) providing an overview of the aluminum industry and Alba's performance in Q2 2012. Some key points:
- Global aluminum demand grew 3.2% in Q2 2012 despite economic uncertainty. However, lower LME prices and high energy costs impacted Western producers.
- At Alba, additional cost savings of $7 million were achieved in Q2 through operational improvement initiatives. Production increased 1.7% while sales were stable.
- Alba's adjusted EBITDA was $86 million in Q2, down 51% due to low LME prices and higher gas costs. Adjusted net
The LME Week event brought together metals industry professionals to discuss market developments. Presentations showed inconsistent views on the aluminum market balance, with one analyst predicting a deficit and another a surplus. Several banks and analysts provided outlooks: CRU expects growing aluminum demand and a gradual price rise; Standard Bank sees a deficit developing through 2017; Citibank expects demand to grow 6% annually but a surplus currently; INTL FC Stone predicts a small surplus in 2014 and balanced market in 2015; and Commerzbank believes slowing growth will increase stock availability and pressure premiums and prices. The event highlighted uncertainties around Chinese production and the disconnect between physical and LME prices.
The document summarizes the global nickel industry. It states that:
- Primary nickel production recovered in 2010 after declining in 2008-2009 due to the economic crisis, and has been growing since then at a rate of around 9% per year.
- Europe and Asia are the leading producers and consumers of nickel globally, accounting for over 70% of production and consumption in 2012.
- Stainless steel production, which requires nickel, is the largest end use for nickel and accounted for around 66% of total nickel consumption in 2012.
- Future demand is expected to come from growth in stainless steel production and from nickel-based batteries and superalloys, however oversupply and lack of demand pose challenges to the industry
Hydro is a global aluminum company with activities in over 50 countries. It has robust positions across the aluminum value chain, including bauxite, alumina, primary metal production, aluminum products and recycling [1]. Hydro aims to maximize the potential of its assets, continue operational improvements, capitalize on its technological edge, and maintain financial strength to improve its competitive position and ensure competitive shareholder returns [31-33].
India has become the world's fourth largest steel producer despite having low per capita steel consumption compared to other major economies. Steel production is expected to continue expanding rapidly to meet growing demand from industrialization and infrastructure development. While India has large iron ore reserves, it has limited coking coal and imports most of its needs, mainly from Australia. As India's economy develops, steel consumption and imports of coking coal and iron ore are projected to rise substantially.
This document provides an overview of the metal industry and analysis of Tata Steel Ltd. It begins with an introduction to the global metal sector and lists the top 10 mining companies by revenue. It then discusses the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on metal prices and industry. The document analyzes key metal commodities, performs a Porter's Five Forces analysis of the industry, and lists new developments. It provides an in-depth company analysis of Tata Steel Ltd, including financials, ratios, management, and compares it to competitors. The document concludes with benefits and how to perform a competitive landscape analysis.
This document provides an overview of the global aluminium industry. It discusses key trends such as rising global production and consumption of aluminium from 2012-2018. China dominates the industry as the largest producer and consumer. The document also outlines opportunities in the industry such as growth in the Middle East and new application areas, as well as challenges around price volatility, high inventory levels, and high energy costs. The way forward discusses continued demand growth, especially in emerging markets, and the need for innovative production technologies to reduce energy usage and environmental impacts.
The document summarizes developments in global commodity markets in 2012. It finds that after remaining flat in 2011, the IMF's commodity price index fell in the second quarter of 2012 before rebounding in the third quarter. Energy and base metal prices declined sharply in the second quarter but have since increased, while food prices remained flat until rising in the third quarter. Fluctuations in global demand have played a key role in commodity price movements, while supply factors specific to energy and food markets also contributed to price changes. The outlook for further commodity price fluctuations remains uncertain.
Impact of the Manufacturing Renaissance from Energy Intensive SectorsMarcellus Drilling News
A report released March 20, 2014 from the U.S. Conference of Mayors that shows the impact of abundant, inexpensive natural gas is having and will continue to have to 2020 and beyond on nine key manufacturing sectors. The report shows that 72% of the benefit from cheap shale gas will go to 363 metropolitan areas across the United States. That is, America's major cities are the beneficiaries, in both jobs and economic impact, from abundant nautral gas.
Microsoft word mmx earnings release 2 q12 versão final - inglesmmxriweb
- MMX Mineração e Metálicos S.A. released its results for the 2nd quarter of 2012, showing signs of recovery after weak 1Q12 results due to heavy rains. Key highlights included obtaining an installation license for the Serra Azul expansion and resuming iron ore shipments from Corumbá.
- Total iron ore sales were 1.7 million tons, up 22% from 1Q12. However, global economic uncertainties and lower Chinese demand negatively impacted iron ore prices.
- EBITDA was R$13.9 million, up 231% from 1Q12 but down 82% from 2Q11. The company expects global steel production to remain stable in 2012 and resume
Responsible investment & governance annual report 2012Nordea Bank
This document provides an overview of Nordea's responsible investment activities in 2012, including engagements with companies on ESG issues and participation in PRI initiatives. Some key points:
- Nordea conducts in-depth ESG analysis of companies and engages in dialogues with companies identified for improvement in order to influence positive change.
- In 2012 Nordea successfully ended 5 engagements as companies addressed norm violations and improved sustainability practices. New engagements addressed labor rights, indigenous rights, and environmental issues.
- Nordea participated in 44 dialogues with Nordic and global companies to discuss ESG issues and opportunities for improvement.
- Through the PRI, Nordea supports initiatives on sustainable fisheries
Nordeas rapport om samhällsansvar, eller Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), publicerades i veckan och visar bland annat att ansvarsfulla investerare är intresserade av Nordea.
Responsible investment & governance annual report 2011Nordea Bank
This document discusses Nordea's commitment to responsible investing and governance. It highlights achievements in 2011, such as engaging with companies that violated human rights and exerting influence on how companies manage environmental, social and governance risks. It also summarizes Nordea's responsible investing framework, products that integrate ESG factors, and efforts to build knowledge through research and team awards. Key company examples that demonstrate good ESG performance are provided.
This document provides an economic outlook for various regions and countries. It notes that there are signs of improvement in the global economy, but the recovery will be slow. Monetary policy will remain expansive for much of the world over the forecast period, while fiscal policy and weak credit growth will dampen the global recovery in the near term. For the euro area, the outlook is for a gradual recovery after a decline in GDP in early 2012, helped by a weaker euro improving competitiveness but also making high oil prices more negative. Germany is expected to continue leading growth in Europe.
The Chinese steel industry is facing significant challenges due to economic slowdown reducing demand. Steel production and consumption are expected to grow only moderately in 2012. Overcapacity remains a major issue, exacerbated by weakening demand, and inventories have risen sharply. Profits for Chinese steel producers decreased dramatically in the first half of 2012. The government is pushing for industry consolidation but with limited success so far. Smaller, less efficient steel mills and traders face difficulties servicing debts and may be forced out of the market.
The aluminum industry ceo agenda 2013 - by BCGJPStrategy
The aluminum industry crisis was caused primarily by oversupply driven by China's rapid expansion of aluminum production capacity. Between 2000-2012, Chinese aluminum demand grew at nearly 16% annually, accounting for 45% of global demand, while demand outside China grew just over 1% annually. However, the industry failed to predict the scale of China's production increases, which led to a global oversupply. As Chinese aluminum remained self-sufficient and inventories grew, prices remained low despite strong overall demand growth. The crisis reflects a long-term structural change of China's dominance in production that has depressed prices industry-wide.
How will raw material prices and other factor cost drivers influence the overall of cost of goods sold for product being sourced out of China? This outlook gives our readers a clear understanding of the key factors that drive production costs in China for hardline manufacturers. We review global demand, currency markets, metals pricing and freight and consider how the outlook for each of these drivers will influence the cost of hardlines manufactured in China. This semi-annual publication is distributed to our clients and offers a summary of our in depth research. It is used by Sertus and our clients to extract savings from more effective purchasing management and deliveries given the specific outlook for each segment covered.
The document is a presentation by Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) providing an overview of the aluminum industry and Alba's performance in Q2 2012. Some key points:
- Global aluminum demand grew 3.2% in Q2 2012 despite economic uncertainty. However, lower LME prices and high energy costs impacted Western producers.
- At Alba, additional cost savings of $7 million were achieved in Q2 through operational improvement initiatives. Production increased 1.7% while sales were stable.
- Alba's adjusted EBITDA was $86 million in Q2, down 51% due to low LME prices and higher gas costs. Adjusted net
The LME Week event brought together metals industry professionals to discuss market developments. Presentations showed inconsistent views on the aluminum market balance, with one analyst predicting a deficit and another a surplus. Several banks and analysts provided outlooks: CRU expects growing aluminum demand and a gradual price rise; Standard Bank sees a deficit developing through 2017; Citibank expects demand to grow 6% annually but a surplus currently; INTL FC Stone predicts a small surplus in 2014 and balanced market in 2015; and Commerzbank believes slowing growth will increase stock availability and pressure premiums and prices. The event highlighted uncertainties around Chinese production and the disconnect between physical and LME prices.
The document summarizes the global nickel industry. It states that:
- Primary nickel production recovered in 2010 after declining in 2008-2009 due to the economic crisis, and has been growing since then at a rate of around 9% per year.
- Europe and Asia are the leading producers and consumers of nickel globally, accounting for over 70% of production and consumption in 2012.
- Stainless steel production, which requires nickel, is the largest end use for nickel and accounted for around 66% of total nickel consumption in 2012.
- Future demand is expected to come from growth in stainless steel production and from nickel-based batteries and superalloys, however oversupply and lack of demand pose challenges to the industry
Hydro is a global aluminum company with activities in over 50 countries. It has robust positions across the aluminum value chain, including bauxite, alumina, primary metal production, aluminum products and recycling [1]. Hydro aims to maximize the potential of its assets, continue operational improvements, capitalize on its technological edge, and maintain financial strength to improve its competitive position and ensure competitive shareholder returns [31-33].
Aluminum at a Glance-Calendar Year 2023.docxCostMasters
Explore the factors behind the declining aluminium price per kg, including weak demand, energy constraints, and repaired supply chains. Get insights into the future outlook for the metal.
The document provides an overview of the global aluminum industry. It notes that China dominates global aluminum production and consumption, driven by growth in construction and infrastructure. While aluminum production is growing at 3% annually, consumption is growing faster at 4%. The industry faces challenges from price volatility and high inventory levels. Future demand growth is expected to come from emerging markets, as well as increased aluminum usage in construction, transportation, and other industries to boost energy efficiency and sustainability.
The document summarizes the global aluminum industry. It notes that China dominates global aluminum production and consumption, driven by growth in construction and infrastructure. While aluminum production is growing at 3% annually, consumption is growing faster at 4% through 2018. Price volatility and high global stockpiles present challenges to the industry. Future demand growth is expected in emerging markets, as well as in automotive, aerospace and green building applications, as aluminum is recyclable and lightweight. Major players are focusing on innovative and low-energy production technologies to reduce costs and environmental impacts.
This document provides an overview and analysis of the US steel industry in early 2005. It summarizes key data on production, shipments, prices, imports and export forecasts. It also reviews 4th quarter 2004 financial results for major North American steel producers. While steel consumers argue prices are too high, steelmakers counter that steel makes up a small percentage of total costs for most industries. The document concludes that globalization and low-cost foreign competition, particularly from China, have impacted US manufacturers more than domestic steel prices.
This document provides an overview of the global nickel industry. It discusses that global nickel production grew until 2007 but declined in 2008-2009 due to the economic crisis, recovering to 1.45 million metric tons in 2010. Production is estimated to reach 1.86 million metric tons by 2013, growing at a CAGR of around 9% from 2010-2013. Europe and Asia are the leading regions for nickel production, accounting for over 70% globally in 2012. Consumption has also been increasing since 2010 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of around 6.7% from 2013-2017. The document outlines opportunities and challenges for the industry and provides an outlook suggesting consumption growth from infrastructure development though the industry currently faces tough
1. Copper prices rose in July, reaching over $5,750 per tonne, on concerns over tight supply and healthy Chinese demand. However, GFMS forecasts an overall copper surplus of 245,000 tonnes for 2009 as consumption declines outweigh production losses.
2. GFMS expects copper prices to fall to around $5,000 per tonne before recovering later in the year, and forecasts prices will trade between $5,000-6,500 per tonne from August to November.
3. Recent copper market news included production declines reported by several major miners as well as a rise in Japanese copper cable shipments, although shipments remain well below last year's levels.
Global Aluminium Oversupply: Consequences and Survival Strategiesalcircle.com
We are already halfway through the current financial year and the slowdown in the commodity market is showing no signs of letting up. Key “leading indicators” like aluminium have been declining steadily on the London Metal Exchange (LME), hitting fresh lows every day. This trend is clearly indicative of a widespread economic downturn which has already hit China, and unlike the recent crisis in Greece, this is likely to have a rather prominent impact on major economies of the world.
Energy & Commodities, No.8 - October 25, 2011 Swedbank
1) Global commodity prices have fallen since last spring due to weaker global economic conditions and uncertainty about resolving the fiscal crisis in Europe.
2) Industrial metal prices have declined the most, around 25-30% lower than the start of the year, as industrial activity slows in major economies. However, food prices remain high due to constrained supplies.
3) While gold prices have also dropped from high levels, gold has still risen nearly 20% in USD since the start of 2011, reflecting its role as a safe haven investment.
Energy & Commodities, No.7 - August 19, 2011 Swedbank
- Commodity prices have fallen broadly as global growth prospects have declined, with crude oil and industrial metals prices declining the most. Precious metals prices have risen as a safe haven for investors.
- The document expects crude oil prices to fall to $100/barrel by end of 2011 and further in 2012 as global oil consumption eases with slowing industrial activity. Metal prices are also forecasted to decline toward late 2010 levels provided emerging economy demand, led by China, isn't stronger than expected.
- Food price declines will be limited due to supply constraints and continued purchasing power growth in emerging economies.
The Outlook for 2020 Mega Trends for the Aluminium Industry in Middle East.
What would drive growth for the Aluminium Industry in 2020 in the Middle East Region.
Energy & Commodities, No.9 - December 2, 2011 Swedbank
- Commodity prices have fallen significantly since peaking last spring as the global economic outlook has deteriorated, especially for metals which are down nearly 20% since April. However, crude oil prices remain high around $113/barrel despite slowing growth.
- Metal prices have declined the most in Swedbank's index due to weakening global industrial activity and growth prospects. Copper prices have fallen over 20% but fundamentals suggest they may not drop much further. Iron ore and steel prices also trended lower in Q3.
- Food prices corrected sharply in 2011 from record highs earlier in the year but remain over 30% higher than 2010 levels on average due to high prices earlier in the year. Uncertainty
Energy & Commodities, No. 10 - December 14, 2011 Swedbank
Crude oil prices have remained high despite global economic uncertainty. While other commodity prices are declining, oil prices have stayed above $100 per barrel due to shrinking inventories and increased consumption in emerging economies. OPEC countries disagree on production levels, and the upcoming OPEC summit may not result in an agreement to change quotas. Rapid growth in emerging economies outside the OECD now accounts for about half of global oil consumption.
Similar to Base metals price forecast updated (20)
Responsible investment & governance annual report 2013Nordea Bank
Nordea is a large financial services group in the Nordic and Baltic Sea region. In 2013, Nordea recorded stable financial results and continued to be acknowledged as one of the world's safest banks. Key details from the document include:
- Nordea had total assets of EUR 233 billion and 31,327 employees at the end of 2013.
- Nordea focuses on creating great customer experiences and building long-term relationships with customers through understanding their needs and goals.
- Nordea works to minimize its negative environmental impact and supports financial literacy and entrepreneurship programs for youth in the communities it serves.
- Compliance is a key focus area for Nordea to build trust and ensure its business operates responsibly
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
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The Universal Account Number (UAN) by EPFO centralizes multiple PF accounts, simplifying management for Indian employees. It streamlines PF transfers, withdrawals, and KYC updates, providing transparency and reducing employer dependency. Despite challenges like digital literacy and internet access, UAN is vital for financial empowerment and efficient provident fund management in today's digital age.
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby...Donc Test
Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition 2024, by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting, 8th Canadian Edition by Libby, Hodge, Verified Chapters 1 - 13, Complete Newest Version Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Solution Manual For Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Chapters Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Ebook Download Stuvia Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Financial Accounting 8th Canadian Edition Pdf Download Stuvia
How Does CRISIL Evaluate Lenders in India for Credit RatingsShaheen Kumar
CRISIL evaluates lenders in India by analyzing financial performance, loan portfolio quality, risk management practices, capital adequacy, market position, and adherence to regulatory requirements. This comprehensive assessment ensures a thorough evaluation of creditworthiness and financial strength. Each criterion is meticulously examined to provide credible and reliable ratings.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Bridging the gap: Online job postings, survey data and the assessment of job ...
Base metals price forecast updated
1. Updated Base Metals Price Forecast
Slower start to 2012 before prices regain traction
Commodities Research, 7 December 2011
Bombed out aluminium prices to prevail for a while longer before supply cuts improve balance
Copper prices expected to average above USD 8,000/tonne amid continued supply deficit
Nickel market continues to struggle with oversupply, but supply risks remain to the downside
Table 1. New base metals price forecast to levels around USD 2,000-2,100 per tonne (Chart
USD/tonne 2011E 2012E 2013E 1). In the current market, aluminium producers are
Aluminium 2,400 2,375 2,500 feeling the pinch from poor prices and rising costs,
Copper 8,850 8,250 8,500
which paves the way for production cuts. Accord-
Nickel 22,800 20,000 21,000
Source: Nordea Markets
ing to industry consultants Harbor Intelligence and
Brook Hunt, marginal 1 cash output costs in the
aluminium industry are currently estimated between
Table 2. Old forecast (31 August 2011)
USD/tonne 2011E 2012E 2013E
USD 2,400-2,500 per tonne. Average cash costs are
Aluminium 2,460 2,500 2,600 estimated at around USD 1,950 per tonne for 2011.
Copper 9,200 8,500 8,500 China, the largest producer and consumer of alu-
Nickel 23,600 21,000 21,000 minium, is among the highest cost producers with
Source: Nordea Markets average cash costs currently standing at USD 2,670
per tonne according to Harbor Intelligence. Domes-
Our updated economic forecasts for global GDP tic aluminium prices in China are also significantly
growth of 3.2% (from 3.3%) in 2012E and 3.7% higher than LME prices, but roughly 40% of the
(from 3.8%) in 2013E entail a mild recession in the industry is losing money on a cash cost basis, nev-
Euro area but with limited spill-over effects to the ertheless.
global economy, which will grow slightly below
trend next year. Our forecast for Chinese GDP Chart 1. Aluminium prices and exchange
growth is left unchanged at 8.5% and 8.1% for inventories
2012E and 2013E, respectively. The first half of 6 Primary aluminium 3,500
mn tonnes USD/tonne
2012 is expected to be slightly weaker than antici-
5
pated in September and our base metals price fore- 3,000
casts have been adjusted to reflect both this sub- 4
dued growth outlook and supply-side developments 2,500
since then (see tables 1 and 2 above). 3
2,000
2
Aluminium prices to rebound from
1,500
depressed levels 1
The slowdown in economic growth this year has
0 1,000
resulted in a worsening of expected fundamentals in Dec07 Jun08 Dec08 Jun09 Dec09 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11
the aluminium sector through lower expected future LME inventories SHFE inventories LME Cash price (rhs)
economic and thus aluminium demand growth. The Source: Bloomberg, Nordea Markets
price of aluminium at the London Metals Exchange
has tumbled 24% from its recent peak in April 2011
1
Marginal cash costs are defined as the cash costs of
producers at the 90th percentile on the supply curve.
1
2. balanced aluminium market for the next couple of
years, with risks to the outlook largely balanced.
Robust demand growth to be driven by China Current aluminium prices are considered too low
Global end user aluminium demand has stalled, but compared to current operating costs and to our ex-
demand for primary aluminium has remained firm. pectations for the global operating rate, which
The exception is in Europe where physical premi- should remain in the 85-87% range. Prices are
ums have started to come down from elevated lev- therefore expected to average higher than current
els. We have lowered our aluminium demand forward prices over the next two years. We pencil
growth forecast for 2012E to 5.7% (7.7%) but leave in average prices of USD 2,375 (USD 2,500) per
our 2013E growth forecast unchanged at 6.5%. The tonne and USD 2,500 (USD 2,600) per tonne for
decent demand outlook is underpinned by robust 2012E and 2013E, respectively.
demand growth from China of around 10-11%.
Demand is expected to be boosted by aluminium Chart 2. Aluminium forecast versus market
price competitiveness and penetration in the trans- USD/tonne LME Primary Aluminium probability range
Based on implied volatilities in the options market
5,000
portation sector. Growing urbanisation, income and
4,500
market share in automotive, aerospace, electrical,
4,000
electronics and solar energy support robust demand 3,500
growth in the coming years, albeit at a slower pace 3,000
2,500
than previously estimated. 2,500
2,375
2,000
Supply under pressure by poor profitability 1,500
1,000
Global aluminium output has come under intense
500
pressure from poor prices and sticky production
0
costs. However, historically high physical premi- Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13
ums paid on top of LME prices provide some offset 90% Confidence 95% Confidence LME price
Forward market Nordea Forecast
for producers. Output fell to a 6-month low in Oc- Source: Bloomberg, Nordea Markets
tober according to official figures from the Interna-
tional Aluminium Institute (IAI) as production in Copper prices to reflect continued deficit
China decreased sharply. The pipeline for capacity Copper prices peaked in early February this year at
expansions outside China looks relatively dry and is prices above USD 10,000 per tonne as the funda-
heavily dependent on expansions in India where mental outlook pointed to an increasing supply
output has disappointed already. Chinese planned deficit. However, lack of seasonal restocking by
expansions are decent, but could be hurt by poor Chinese buyers during the spring, who instead
profitability and power-related constraints amid turned to drawing on inventories amid historically
China’s recurring power shortages. According to high prices, tight credit conditions and a closed “ar-
China Electricity Council, the current power short- bitrage window” to import LME based copper, re-
age could last until next spring, but may be allevi- sulted in prices trending lower. Meanwhile, global
ated by the recently announced hike in power prices economic growth slowed, reducing actual and ex-
and cap on coal prices from January. This neverthe- pected copper demand from China and the rest of
less puts upwards pressure on Chinese production the world. LME copper prices tumbled 33% from
costs by an estimated USD 60 per tonne for smelt- the February peak to the recent low in early Octo-
ers without self-generated power. Although current ber (USD 6,785 per tonne), but currently trade
prices incentivise production cuts, especially in around USD 7,800-7,900 per tonne (Chart 3).
China, we expect that prices must remain at current
depressed levels for a while before we see cuts. The industry marginal (90th percentile) cash cost is
Shutting down and restarting production is costly, estimated by consultants Brook Hunt at USD 4,000
high premiums provide offset, costs can come per tonne while the most expensive mine operations
down further and history has shown that prices require almost USD 8,000 per tonne. Prices above
must trade at current levels on the cost curve (50th this “threshold” should therefore only be justified in
percentile) for a sustained period before cuts are a market characterised by deficit, ie refined supply
made. falling short of refined usage resulting in stock
draws. According to the latest data from the Inter-
Bottom line: Capacity is expected to expand at a national Copper Study Group (ICSG), the market
slightly higher pace than demand next year, with was in a production deficit of 161k tonnes (1%) for
the opposite being true for 2013E. We see a largely
2
3. the first eight months of 2011 versus a deficit of per consumption as the power and construction sec-
339k tonnes for the same period of 2010. World tors constitute more than half of total consumption.
demand grew by 1% during this period, while mine We expect Chinese consumption to grow at around
production continued to underperform relative to 7% p.a. the coming two years and expect consump-
capacity with production during the first eight tion per capita to reach levels above those of Eu-
months of 2011 practically unchanged from last rope and North America as early as 2013E. Histori-
year. Production at three of the four largest produc- cally, world real GDP growth of 1% corresponds to
ers (Chile, Peru and the United States) fell by an copper consumption growth of 1.2% (see Nordic
aggregated 4% despite record high copper prices Metals & Mining, 5 October 2011, Nordea Equity
(Chart 4). Research). We expect demand to converge to this
historical relationship after a break-out on the up-
Chart 3. Copper prices and exchange in- side in 2010 and to the downside in 2011E, imply-
ventories ing around 4% y/y global demand growth in both
900
Copper
11,000 2012E and 2013E.
'000 tonnes USD/tonne
800 10,000
700 9,000 Supply expansions look comfortable in theory
600 8,000 Repeated labour strikes, adverse weather condi-
500 7,000
tions, operational problems and lower ore head
400 6,000
grades have become the norm rather than the ex-
300 5,000
ception for copper supply in recent years. 2011 has
200 4,000
been no exception to this “rule” and the ISCG ex-
pects a production deficit of about 200k tonnes for
100 3,000
2011. The project pipeline looks, on paper, rela-
0 2,000
Dec07 Jun08 Dec08 Jun09 Dec09 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 tively comfortable, with expansions at existing
LME inventories SHFE inventories mines (brownfield) and new plants (greenfield)
Comex inventories LME Cash price (rhs)
Source: Bloomberg, Nordea Markets
planned to come on stream the coming few years.
Copper mine production is highly concentrated
Chart 4. Chilean copper ore and concen- given that Americas (mainly Chile, Peru and the
US) and Asia constitute roughly 75% of global out-
trates production continues to disappoint
put. Of the 10 largest copper mines in the world, six
6.5
Chile Copper ore and concentrates production
are Chilean. Judging by production plans for the
6.0
Chilean mines alone, they would manage to meet
mn tonnes, annualised
the expected demand increase by themselves. How-
5.5
ever, copper output tends to fall short of guidance
levels and we expect history to repeat itself.
5.0
Bottom line: ICSG expects an increase in refined
4.5 copper production of 3.4% in 2012E compared to
the producers’ expansion plans of roughly 9%
4.0 growth (1.5m tonnes). We share the view of the
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
ICSG and expect a production deficit to emerge
5y range 2011 2010 5 year avg also in 2012E for a third year in a row. We expect a
Source: Bloomberg, World Bureau of Metals Statistics, Nordea Mar- nearly balanced market in 2013E. Due to a slightly
kets
weaker economic development in the start of 2012,
we have lowered our average price forecast for
Demand to pick up from low 2011-levels
2012E from USD 8,500 per tonne to USD 8,250 per
World copper refined usage is expected to grow by
tonne, but keep our forecast for 2013E at USD
1.5-2% y/y this year after 2010’s strong 7.1% y/y
8,500 per tonne.
growth. China will continue to be the driver of de-
mand growth in the coming years as urbanisation
and industrialisation continue. China will have to
import roughly one-fourth of its copper needs,
meaning that Chinese stocking cycles will remain a
key price driver for the foreseeable future. We also
expect China’s current 5-year plan to support cop-
3
4. Chart 5. Copper forecast versus market Slower demand growth in 2012E, but stronger
USD/tonne LME Copper probability range
Based on implied volatilities in the options market
2013E
20,000
Slower economic growth and industrial production
18,000
in the first half of 2012 than previously forecast
16,000
14,000
will most likely result in lower nickel demand
12,000
growth next year. INSG’s late September forecast
10,000
8,250 8,500
of 6% demand growth for both 2011E and 2012E is
8,000 considered too optimistic, in our view. We factor in
6,000 demand growth of around 5% this year, falling to
4,000
3% next year before climbing to around 9% in
2,000
2013E.
0
Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13
90% Confidence
Forward market
95% Confidence
Nordea Forecast
LME price Chart 6. Nickel prices and exchange inven-
Source: Bloomberg, Nordea Markets tories
180 Nickel
35,000
'000 tonnes USD/tonne
Nickel prices threatened by supply glut 160
30,000
Nickel has been the underperformer among base 140
25,000
metals this year on expectations of steady supply 120
additions this year and in 2012. Nickel prices 100 20,000
peaked in February above USD 29,000 per tonne, 80 15,000
but currently trades around USD 18,000 per tonne 60
(Chart 6). As stainless steel production accounts for 10,000
40
roughly two-thirds of global nickel consumption, 5,000
20
the slowdown in stainless steel production in the
0 0
second half of the year has put pressure on refined Dec07 Jun08 Dec08 Jun09 Dec09 Jun10 Dec10 Jun11
nickel demand. At the same time, China’s nickel LME inventories LME Cash price (rhs)
pig iron (NPI) industry, an alternative nickel feed- Source: Bloomberg, Nordea Markets
stock for stainless steel production, churned out
record-high amounts. Chinese net imports of re- Supply pipeline impressive on paper
fined nickel have therefore remained low this year, On paper, the expected nickel supply pipeline looks
while imports of nickel ore and concentrates to feed overwhelming, but disruptions and delays have
the NPI production have skyrocketed. Recently, been a constant feature for the industry. Production
however, these producers are getting squeezed out growth is partly dependent on highly complex pro-
of the market as nickel prices have fallen below the jects, which makes delays likely, in our view. The
cost of NPI production, which is estimated by con- International Nickel Study Group (INSG) latest es-
sultants Brook Hunt in the range of USD 19,000- timates point to a supply increase of around 9% in
20,000 per tonne. Moreover, 90% of global nickel 2012E, which is roughly in line with our own esti-
supply operates cash positively at price levels mates. However, this figure does not include any
around USD 15,000 per tonne. general adjustment factor for possible disruptions,
implying that risks to supply are skewed to the
Despite the sluggish price development, record- downside.
high refined nickel production in September and
NPI ramp-up in China, visible exchange inventories Bottom line: Coupled with our demand expecta-
of refined nickel have declined steadily by a total of tion, the strong supply pipeline translates into an
33% since the start of the year (Chart 6). We expect expected supply surplus the coming two years. We
that some of the excess material has been shipped therefore expect prices to continue to be determined
into China and may be stored away in off-market by the costs of the marginal producers. Further-
bonded warehouses. Nevertheless, LME nickel more, we pencil in a slightly lower price assump-
stocks will begin 2012 at the lowest starting level in tion for 2012E of USD 20,000 per tonne (USD
three years. 21,000 per tonne) due to weaker demand expecta-
tions for the start of the year. We nevertheless keep
our previous forecast of USD 21,000 per tonne for
2013E.
4
5. Chart 7. Nickel forecast versus market and business and consumer confidence has eroded,
USD/tonne LME Nickel probability range
Based on implied volatilities in the options market
which could pave the way for an upside surprise to
economic growth. There is also probably pent-up
50,000
metals demand for instance in the United States
40,000 where construction activity remains at depressed
levels. Stronger monetary and fiscal policy easing
30,000
by China would most likely boost metals demand
20,000
20,000 21,000
growth from the world’s largest consumer. How-
ever, implementation of substantial easing meas-
10,000 ures is most likely to be reactive rather than pre-
emptive, in our view, if growth should falter more
0
Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 than currently anticipated.
90% Confidence 95% Confidence LME price
Forward market Nordea Forecast
Source: Bloomberg, Nordea Markets
Risks to our outlook Bjørnar Tonhaugen
Forecasting metals prices in the current environ- bjornar.tonhaugen@nordea.com +47 2248 7959
ment is very difficult as the macroeconomic uncer-
tainty is perceived to be heightened. Industrial met-
als demand is highly cyclical and sensitive to
changes in economic growth prospects. The sensi-
tivity of demand to GDP growth is highest for
nickel and aluminium, and lowest for copper. Nev-
ertheless, small changes to the economic outlook
could have relatively large implications for ex-
pected metals demand and thereby the expected
market balance. Our forecast described above must
therefore be viewed as our “best estimate” corre-
sponding to our baseline forecasts for global eco-
nomic growth.
The largest downside risks to our outlook are pre-
dominantly demand-side related. The debt crisis in
the Euro-zone, if not properly contained, may have
large spill-over effects to the global economy
mainly through the financial sector. A so-called
“hard landing” in the Chinese economy, for exam-
ple instigated by a burst of the property and credit
“bubble” is another known risk. Chinese residential
floor space for sale has mushroomed lately as prop-
erty demand has fallen markedly. Anecdotal evi-
dence points to a liquidity crunch among property
developers. If property prices fall sharply, private
construction may be cut back and China’s demand
for raw materials and industrial metals will drop
substantially.
Upside risks to our outlook include stronger eco-
nomic growth than envisaged. Expectations are low
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Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of
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5