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Automotive
J u n e 2 0 1 8 R e v i e w
I N D U S T R Y I N S I G H T S
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
2
Highlights
Q 1 2 0 1 8 B Y
T H E N U M B E R S
The auto industry showed signs of moderate improvement in the
beginning of 2018, as global sales and earnings increased. The
automotive industry continues to evolve as electrification gains a
stronger foothold globally but North American automakers shift towards
larger, more profitable vehicles.
Global light vehicle sales increased 2.3% in Q1 2018 relative to Q1
2017. In the United States, light vehicle sales grew 2.0% in Q1 2018 to
4.1 million units. Over the last-twelve months, overall light vehicle sales
have grown at a slightly slower pace of 1.6% over the prior twelve-
month period1. In March 2018, U.S. light vehicle sales reached an
approximately 17.4 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate
(SAAR)2, offering hope that vehicle sales will remain steady into 2018.
Interest rates on consumer installment loans for new automobiles
reached 4.74% in February 2018, up from 4.52% in February 2017,
providing a headwind for the industry3.
In 2017, auto production and sales in China were up 2.89% and 3.04%,
respectively, over 2016; However, SAAR has remained flat through
March 20184,18.
In Europe, January and February increases in new passenger
registrations offset a decrease in March, which culminated in a 0.7%
increase in Q1 2018 relative to Q1 20175.
M&A activity in the automotive sector decreased for the fourth quarter in
a row, to 71 deals in the last twelve months (LTM) from 95 over the
same period a year ago6.
Public company equity performance in the Automotive Original
Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Dealer, Aftermarket and Supplier
sectors all trended downward over Q1 20186.
While OEMs are transitioning to focus on truck and SUV manufacturing
in response to consumer demand in North America, new technologies
such as autonomous vehicles, ride-hailing/sharing and electrification,
continued to dominate headlines.
2.4%, 3.5%, 4.3% and 6.4%
decreases in Duff & Phelps’ market-
weighted indexes of automotive
OEMs, Dealers, Aftermarket Parts &
Repair and Suppliers, respectively,
over Q1 20186
Global electric vehicle sales surpassed 1
million units in 2017 for the first time
ever7
In March 2018, China’s auto sales
rose 1.9% y-o-y4,18
In March 2018, U.S. light vehicle
SAAR increased slightly to 17.4
million2
2.3% increase in global light vehicle
sales in Q1 20181
1.4% increase in new passenger
registrations in Europe in the LTM
period5
See page 31 for data sources
3
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
Table of Contents
4 Quarterly Tech Trend: Ride-Hailing/Sharing
Earnings and Growth Trends18
M&A Activity27
Duff & Phelps’ Ongoing and Recent Transactions30
Auto Industry Indicators10
Public Company Trading Statistics21
Automotive Landscape by Geography15
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
4
BYD
9.3%
BAIC
8.5%
Tesla
8.4%
BMW
Group
8.4%VW Group
5.8%
Other
59.6%
Quarterly Tech
Trend:
Electrification
Legislation and consumer demand for more environmentally friendly vehicles is driving production
of models that can run on alternative fuels, such as ethanol, hydrogen fuel cells, clean diesel,
electric power and hybrid solutions. Governments are helping push growth in an effort to reduce
energy use and greenhouse emissions, while consumer demand is driven by the cost of gas and
environmental concerns.
Global plug-in vehicles sales in 2017 were up 27% from 2016, surpassing 1 million units for the
first time. 66% were pure electric cars and 34% were plug-in hybrids. At the end of the 2017, 3.2
million electric vehicles were on the road worldwide. Over the past year, public charging locations
have doubled while the number of plug-in models available surpassed 170, up from 70 in 2013.
China’s market for New Energy Vehicles (NEV) is the clear global leader in the movement, with
sales in China representing 49.5% of the global plug-in market in 20177.
Although automotive OEM BYD, which sells mostly plug-in hybrid vehicles, lost 3.9% of the plug-in
market share in 2017, the company led the market for the third straight year. BAIC, which produces
pure electric vehicles (BEV) took the second global market position. Despite delays in Model-3
production, Tesla held the third highest market share in 2017, tied with BMW. Volkswagen rounded
out the top five OEMs in the space. VW, BMW and Daimler estimate 25% of their sales will be
electric vehicles over the next decade7.
0.17% 0.25%
0.37%
0.61%
0.83%
1.28%
1.95%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
-200
100
400
700
1,000
1,300
1,600
1,900
2,200
2,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P
Thousands
Plug-In Sales PEV Market Share
Global Electric Vehicle Sales
Source: “Global Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 – Final Results.” EVVolumes.com.
Global EV Market Share
Source: “Global Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 – Final Results.” EVVolumes.com.
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
5
Quarterly Tech
Trend:
Electrification
Electric vehicle sales increased 73% in 2017 to 605,000 passenger vehicles and 198,000
commercial vehicles, representing a growth rate 30 times faster than the overall car market in
China17. In 2017 the country reduced its purchase tax waiver for small-engine vehicles, an
incentive that was introduced in 2016, and implemented a rollback in NEV policies18. Federal
subsidies for NEVs decreased by 20%, and local subsidies were reduced by as much as 50%,
making China’s 2017 electric vehicle growth even more impressive18. Such strong growth is driven
by mandated ownership restrictions on internal combustion engine vehicles. Notably, domestic
production drives over 95% of China’s electric vehicle sales17.
China, South Korea and Japan remain dominant in the space for EV battery production, benefiting
from the shift toward EVs both at home and globally.
China
Source: “China Plug-in Sales for 2017-Q4 and Full Year – Update.” EVVolumes.com
China Electric Vehicle Sales
1.40%
2.40%
3.60%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2015 2016 2017 2018P
Thousands
Plug-In Commercial Vehicle Sales Plug-In Passenger Car Sales Passenger New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market Share
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
6
On April 1, 2018 the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revised the federal vehicle emission
standards which were last updated by the Obama administration in 2016. The new plan, a joint
proposed rule between the EPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA),
would ease regulations for vehicle model years 2022-2025, and could potentially halt all stricter
requirements for vehicle model years 2020-20268.
States currently have the option to abide by the emission requirements of the state of California,
which has an EPA waiver for permission to set its own stricter standards. Current federal rules,
which the Obama administration negotiated with California in order to set a consistent national
policy, mandate an average Fuel Economy of 36 miles per gallon for all vehicles sold by the year
2025. The new draft proposal, however, seeks to override California’s waiver in order to lower
emission standards under one national program. In late April, California and 16 other states, as
well as the District of Columbia, sued the Trump administration, stating that the reduction in vehicle
emission standards would violate the Clean Air Act and the Administration Procedures Act9. OEMs
have voiced their preference for a policy that is consistent across state lines13.
Quarterly Tech
Trend:
Electrification
United States
U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales
Electric vehicle
sales surpassed
1% of the U.S.
market for the first
time in 2017, but
growth in market
share remains
modest10.
2017 plug-in
vehicles sales
were up 27% from
2016, reaching just
below 200,000.
53% were pure
electric cars10.
0.38%
0.62%
0.73% 0.66%
0.90%
1.17%
2.38%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P
Thousands
Plug-In Sales PEV Market Share
Source: “USA Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 Q4 and Full Year.” EVVolumes.com
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
7
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Light Trucks Autos
97%
85%
3%
15%
2017 Actual 2025 Required
Total U.S. ZEV Sales
Total U.S Light Vehicle Sales
Sales of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) will need to demonstrate significant growth in order to
meet current government targets12. However, U.S. automakers have voiced complaints over
producing smaller, less profitable electric, hybrid and fuel efficient vehicles. The “footprint” model
for efficiency regulations, which requires smaller incremental increases in efficiency as vehicle size
increases, exacerbates the gap in profitability between passenger vehicles and light trucks.
Further, consumer demand for SUVs and pick-ups has soared over the past few years in alignment
with decreased fuel costs, resulting in lower-than-expected demand for the most energy-efficient
vehicles11.
Quarterly Tech
Trend:
Electrification
United States
under EPA’s 2016 policy
U.S. Zero Emission Vehicle Sales U.S. Light Vehicle Sales, SAAR
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), May 3, 2018Source: “Consumers and Auto Sales.” Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers
Millions
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
8
Quarterly Tech
Trend:
Electrification
In Europe, 2017 electric vehicle sales were up 39% from 2016 to 307,400 units. 51% were BEVs
and 49% were plug-in hybrids. Share of the total vehicle market reached 1.74% for the year. With
varying incentives and vehicle emission regulations among European countries, the market share
and the mix between plug-in hybrids and BEVs remain quite diverse. Norway’s electric vehicle
share of its market hit 32.5% in 201714. Germany, with the second highest electric vehicle
penetration, more than doubled market share in 2017 after implementing a new incentive scheme
in 201615. The Renault Zoe EV, BMW i3 EV/EREV, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Nissan Leaf EV
and Tesla Model S were the top selling models in Europe in 201714.
Last fall, the Frankfurt-based IAA exhibited a strong focus on electric vehicles, and included an
announcement from Volkswagen to offer 80 battery-powered zero-emission models by 2025. While
European OEMs are investing heavily in the electric vehicle transition, they remain worried about
competition from Asia. VW’s Chief Executive Herbert Diess announced at the Frankfurt auto show
his belief that European automakers and suppliers should collaborate in order to play a larger role
in the market for electric battery technology, suggesting an area of coming growth in the European
auto industry16.
Europe
0.31%
0.48%
0.62%
1.22% 1.30%
1.74%
2.39%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P
Thousands
Plug-In Sales PEV Market Share
E.U. & E.F.T.A Electric Vehicle Sales
2-step reduction in
tax incentives for
plug-in hybrids in the
Netherlands
Source: “Europe Plug-in Vehicle Sales for Q4 and 2017 Full Year.” EVVolumes.com
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
9
Quarterly Tech
Trend:
Electrification
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts the number of EVs on the road will more than triple
to 13 million by the end the decade, but the expected growth in the electric vehicle market will
depend on consumer demand30. EV sales are highest among cars with the furthest driving range,
and for consumers to continue buying, performance will need continued improvement11. Consumer
demand for EVs will also be dependent on cost; battery costs are the main driver of higher selling
prices for EVs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles31.
Cost reduction and performance drivers of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles include
battery chemistry, energy storage capacity, manufacturing scale and charging speeds. OEMs have
announced investments in large-scale battery manufacturing facilities, providing optimism about
future production capacity and that will provide economies of scale. Cost reduction will also be
driven by increased battery capacity, which will allow for larger driving ranges, as a shift in battery
chemistry away from cobalt, which will allow for higher energy density as well31.
Advancements in lightweight material technology will further enhance EV performance, as lower-
weight vehicle components, both in and out of the battery cell, will allow for improved electric
driving ranges. The IEA predicts that by 2030, lithium-ion battery components will have completely
shifted from graphite and carbon alloys along with organic solvents and lithium salts to
graphite/silicon composites and polymers31.
Electric Battery Technology
Annual Demand for Added EV Battery Capacity
Demand for batteries
is expected to rise by
a factor of 15 between
2017 and 201330,31.
68 82 101 125 155
191
234
285
344
411
488
573
669
776
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P
gigawatt-hours(GWh)
Sources: “Electric Vehicles on the Road Are Set to Triple in Two Years.” Bloomberg. May 30, 2018.; “Global EV Outlook 2018.” International Energy Agency. May 30, 2018.
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
10
Auto
Indicators
In March 2018, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined further from its 17-year high in
November, but is still up 2.2% from a year ago19. The S&P 500 Automobiles Index also decreased.
It fell to 97.81 in March 2018, after reaching the highest peak since 2015 in November 20176.
In March 2018, U.S. light vehicle reached 17.40 million vehicles, slightly above March 2017 sales2.
Meanwhile, auto loan balances and originations have continued their rise since 2011 along with the
CCI. Debt balances on auto loans reached $1.23 trillion in the first quarter, up $8 billion quarterly
and $62 billion annually, continuing their 6-year upward trend20.
Sources: The Conference Board; S&P Global Market Intelligence; “U.S. Light Vehicle Sales.” WardsAuto Public Data; Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), April 30, 2018
Consumer Confidence
Mar '18: 127.7
Mar '18: 97.81
Mar '18: 17.398
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Mar '10 Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18
MillionsofVehicles
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
S&P 500 Automobiles Index
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks, SAAR
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
11
Auto
Indicators
U.S. consumer spending has seen a relatively steady increase since late 2013. Expenditures on
durable goods reached a record level of $1,504.80 billion in March 2018 after a slight drop in the
first two months of the year6.
The rising trend in auto sales has slowed compared to overall durable goods spending. September
2017 saw a big push after an 8-month decline, but sales have fallen back down to levels seen a
year ago. In March 2018, U.S. light vehicle sales reached 17.40 million vehicles2.
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; FRED, January 18, 2018; “U.S. Light Vehicle Sales.” WardsAuto Public Data.
Consumer Spending
Mar '18: $1,504.80
Mar '18: 17.398
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
Mar '10 Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18
MillionsofVehicles
Billions
U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods, SAAR
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks, SAAR
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
12
Auto
Indicators
As most consumers lease or buy cars with loans, increases in interest rates can reduce consumer
ability to buy vehicles and lower auto sales volumes. Low interest rates help drive car sales.
As the benchmark federal funds rate has continued to rise since 2015, car loans stand to become
more expensive. Finance rates on new auto loans have followed suit, reaching 4.7% in February
20183. The gradual rise since 2015 has complemented a modest rise in delinquency rates, which
reached 4.3% of auto loan balances in Q1 2018, up from 4.1% in Q4 201720.
Key Interest Rates
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; FRED, April 30, 2018
Mar '18: 1.51%
Mar '18: 2.84%
Feb '18: 4.74%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Mar '10 Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18
Effective Federal Funds Rate
10-Year Treasury
Finance Rate on Consumer Installment Loans at Commercial Banks, New Autos 48-Month Loan
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
13
Auto
Indicators
Crude oil prices have steadily risen since early 2016. In March 2018, the West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) spot price averaged $62.73 per barrel and the Brent spot price averaged $66.02 per barrel21.
Oversupply, largely due to growth in U.S. production, and the decision by Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to maintain rather than cut production levels in response to
declining prices, led to a 56.3% drop in crude oil prices between June 2014 and January 201522.
Before the drop, global light vehicle sales continued to grow despite rising gas prices; since the
drop, lower gas prices have provided tailwinds for further growth in auto sales. The increase in oil
prices over the last two years has not correlated with an impact on the global auto SAAR, however.
September 2017 saw a record high global SAAR of 99.88, though it has fallen back to 94.08 in
March 20181.
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; “Global Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data; U.S. Energy Information Administration, April 30, 2018
Crude Oil Prices
Mar '18: $62.73
Mar '18: $66.02
Mar '18: 94.08
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Mar '10 Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18
MillionsofVehicles
Cushing, OK, WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel)
Global Light Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks, SAAR
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
14
Auto
Indicators
Global light vehicle sales have risen approximately 1.6% in the last-twelve months, with 8 of the 12
months experiencing light vehicle sales growth y-o-y. March generated the highest light vehicle
sales volume at 9.40 million, while February registered the lowest, totaling just 6.75 million. Over the
last-twelve months, January saw the strongest y-o-y growth (7.0%), driven by significant sales
increases in Eastern Europe (21.6%), South America (23.5%), China (10.2%) and Korea (9.3%),
Finally, September registered the highest SAAR in the last-twelve months, reaching just above 99.5
million-unit, while January generated the highest SAAR in 2018, reaching 94.8 million units1.
In 2018, South America has registered the highest sales volume increase at 15.4%, followed by
Eastern Europe (13.5%). During this time period, the three largest markets, China, Western Europe
and the U.S. have grown 2.4%, (0.1%) and 2.0%, respectively1.
Sources: “Global Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data.
Global Light Vehicle Sales
Sources: “Global Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data.
4.44
0.68
5.29
8.89
4.28
4.53
0.79
5.40
9.02
4.41
0.0
5.0
10.0
Millions
YTD 2017
YTD 2018
Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
Millions
Millions
Global LV Sales Volume LTM SAAR
Global Light Vehicle Sales YTD
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
15
North American
Automotive
Landscape
While U.S. sales are up y-o-y, reaching 17.2 million vehicles through the first quarter of 2018,
North American automobile manufacturers’ light vehicle production fell slightly in Q1 2018. In
the first three months, North American light vehicle production fell 2.7% over the prior year,
driven mostly by a 6.8% decrease y-o-y in March, from 1.67 million to 1.56 million23.
Production cuts suggest OEM’s predictions given an increasingly dynamic and uncertain
marketplace, amid escalating trade war threats and replete with new technology and trends.
In an effort to maintain profitability and growth, the “Detroit 3” (Ford, GM and FCA) are all
considering cutting sedan production as a response to shifting consumer trends towards SUVs
and trucks24. In April, Ford announced it will cut all sedan production except the Mustang and
the Chinese-built Focus, but plans to add five new SUVs to its lineup by 202026.
On the trade war front, China is contemplating placing tariffs on U.S.-made automobiles in
response to President Trump’s push to place a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports that
would affect Chinese suppliers27. China’s 25% automobile tariff threat would significantly
impact several OEMs that rely on exporting to China; Tesla, BMW’s South Carolina facility,
Daimler’s Alabama factory and Ford all stand to be negatively impacted25,27. Trump has also
threatened to increase tariffs on European cars in the event that the European Union follows
through on its expressed intent to respond to Trump’s steel and aluminum imports32.
Seasonally Adjusted
Source: “US Light Vehicle Sales.” WardsAuto Public Data.
Monthly North American Light Vehicle Production (millions) Monthly U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (millions)
Source: “North American Light Vehicle Production.” WardsAuto Public Data.
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
Prior LTM LTM
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
0.0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2.0
SAAR
Millions
2016 2017 2018 2017 SAAR 2018 SAAR
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
16
Chinese
Automotive
Landscape
In March 2018, China’s auto sales were significantly higher than February’s sales and up
1.85% y-o-y4,18. Sales volume for the first quarter of 2018 was up just slightly over the same
period in 2017. Auto production in China was up 0.3% y-o-y in March, but was down over the
three months through Q1 2018 compared to Q1 2017. Weak production levels were driven by
high dealership inventory levels18. China’s light vehicle SAAR in March was 28.9 million
vehicles, up 4.0% from February and inline with 2017 annual sales18.
The weak auto market in China for the quarter is partly due to decreased demand after a rush
to buy cars before the end of 2017 when China’s purchase tax waiver for small-engine vehicles
expired. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates the market share of
small-engine vehicles fell 1.7% from December 2017 to January 20184.
In April, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (DNRC) announced a plan to
remove foreign equity restrictions on NEVs and special-purpose vehicles this year. The
released five-year plan will eventually be extended to commercial vehicles and passenger
vehicles, as well18. Meanwhile, the threat of a tariff war persists between China and the U.S.
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
“China Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data.
Monthly Auto Sales
23.3%
-5.1%
4.2%
-1.8%
0.2%
4.9% 6.4%
5.6% 5.7%
2.0% 0.6%
-1.5%
10.71%
-11.40%
1.85%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Millions
2016 Sales 2017 Sales 2018 Sales 2017 Y-o-Y Sales Growth 2018 Y-o-Y Sales Growth
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
17
1.17
1.25
1.08 1.13
1.89
1.79
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
Millions
January February March
14.96 15.17
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Prior LTM LTM
Millions
Note: Europe is defined as the European Union
Source: “Passenger Car Registrations: +5.8% first two months of 2018; +4.3% in February.” European Automobile
Manufacturers Association. March 15, 2018.
European
Automotive
Landscape
New passenger vehicle registrations in Europe demonstrated healthy growth in the first two
months of 2018, followed by a decline in March, which resulted in 0.7% growth quarter-over-
quarter. In addition, for the last-twelve months, new passenger registrations grew 1.4% over
the prior last-twelve month period. New registrations increased 7.1% in January y-o-y to 1.25
million, however, March saw new passenger registrations slip 5.3% y-o-y to 1.79 million. This
overall decrease in registrations in March was the first y-o-y decline since 2013, and was
driven by a substantial decrease in Europe’s largest market, the United Kingdom (15.7%), and
a slight decrease in Europe’s second largest market, Germany (3.4%). Overall, in Q1 2018, 21
of the 27 countries in the European Union have demonstrated new passenger registration
growth over Q1 2017, and 11 of those 21 have generated double-digit growth over that time
period5.
Source: “Passenger Car Registrations: +5.8% first two months of 2018; +4.3% in February.” European Automobile
Manufacturers Association. March 15, 2018.
New Passenger Vehicle Registrations
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
18
$18.8
$13.4
$7.5
$20.4
$14.1
$7.6
$10.3
$2.3
$0.6 $1.4
$11.1
$2.5
$0.6 $1.4
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
Automotive OEMs Automotive Suppliers Automotive Dealers Automotive Aftermarket
Revenue: Prior LTM (Average) Revenue: LTM (Average) EBITDA: Prior LTM (Average) EBITDA: LTM (Average)
Revenue and
EBITDA
Growth
Automotive OEMs averaged approximately $103.8 billion and $11.1 billion in LTM revenue and
EBITDA, respectively, demonstrating significant EBITDA growth (6.4%) over the prior last-twelve-
months period. Automotive Supplier revenue and EBITDA both grew at rates of 10.3%%,
respectively, exhibiting slightly lower sales growth than their customers but higher EBITDA growth.
Automotive Dealers generated an average of $13.4 billion in revenue and $605 million in EBITDA,
and demonstrated limited top- and bottom-line growth in the LTM period. Finally, the Automotive
Aftermarket Parts and Repair industry on average experienced revenue growth (3.9%), but
EBITDA contraction, declining 3.8% to an average of $1.35 billion6.
LTM Revenue and EBITDA ($ billions)
Note: LTM as of the most recently available reporting date for each company
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings
Revenue EBITDA
$97.5 $103.8
Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA
Definitions
EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
LTM: Last Twelve Months
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
19
Earnings
Performance
Average LTM EBITDA margins exhibited varying levels of consistency relative to the prior LTM
period, depending on the automotive segment. On an EBITDA basis, Automotive OEMs
experienced a roughly 60 basis points (bps) increase, while Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers saw
an average decrease of nearly 120 bps y-o-y. Meanwhile, Automotive Suppliers and Automotive
Dealers saw EBITDA margins contract by only 20 and 10 bps, respectively6. In all cases, EBIT
margin delta was either equal to or less severe y-o-y.
Margin Performance
EBITDA EBIT EBITDA EBIT EBITDA EBIT EBITDA EBIT
Note: LTM as of the most recently available reporting date for each company
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings
Definitions
EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
EBIT: Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
LTM: Last Twelve Months
9.3%
12.6%
4.3%
18.3%
9.9%
12.4%
4.2%
17.1%
4.7%
8.7%
3.7%
15.1%
5.0%
8.5%
3.6%
14.0%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Automotive OEMs Automotive Suppliers Automotive Dealers Automotive Aftermarket
EBITDA: Prior LTM (Average) EBITDA: LTM (Average) EBIT: Prior LTM (Average) EBIT: LTM (Average)
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
20
Capital
Expenditures
Automotive OEM capital expenditures increased approximately 4.2% in the LTM period versus the
prior LTM period. On the other hand, Automotive Suppliers, Dealers and Automotive Aftermarket
each decreased their capital expenditures over the prior LTM period, at 2.8%, 4.4% and 3.6%,
respectively6.
Capital Expenditures
Note: LTM as of the most recently available reporting date for each company
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings
$8.12
$1.19
$0.19 $0.32
$8.46
$1.16
$0.18 $0.31
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
Automotive OEMs Automotive Suppliers Automotive Dealers Automotive Aftermarket
CapEx: Prior LTM (Average) CapEx: LTM (Average)
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
21
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Mar '17 May '17 Jul '17 Sep '17 Nov '17 Jan '18 Mar '18
Automotive Dealers S&P 500 Automotive Suppliers Automotive OEMs Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair
Public Company
Equity
Performance
Over the past 12 months, the Automotive OEM index and Automotive Suppliers index have trended
similarly to each other, with the Automotive Supplier index barely outgaining the Automotive OEM
index, 18.7% to 18.2%. These indices outperformed the S&P index, which saw 12.0% growth in the
over the last 12 months, but along with Automotive Dealers and Aftermarket Parts and Repair,
underperformed relative to the S&P index for the first quarter of 2018, which is down 2.0% since
January 20186. The Aftermarket Parts and Repair continued its recent trajectory, declining 7.9%
over the last 12 months and 6.4% over the quarter6. This decline in Aftermarket Parts equity
performance is due in part to online retailers gaining market share28 as well as recent attempts by
OEMs to integrate aftermarket services into their offering29; however, some industry analysts
believe that the increased market share of foreign vehicles is also to blame, as consumers are
more likely to visit the dealership for service on foreign vehicles, rather than automotive repair
shops28.
LTM Equity Market Performance
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018; represents most actively traded public automotive sector companies
8.3%
18.7%
(7.9%)
12.0%
18.2%
YTD Equity Market Performance
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18
(3.5)%
(6.4)%
(4.3%)
(2.0)%
(2.4)%
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
22
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings; represents most actively traded public automotive companies
EBITDA and Enterprise Value adjusted for pension liabilities; Enterprise Value adjusted for noncontrolling interests, equity investments and financial services segments
For definitions, see page 24.
Public Companies’
Trading Statistics
($ in millions) 3/31/18 % of % Change Enterprise Value as a Multiple of Stock Price as a Multiple of LTM
Stock 52 Wk from Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA LTM 2018 EBITDA Revenue
Company Price High 12/31/17 Capitalization Value LTM 2018E 2019E LTM 2018E 2019E EPS EPS Margin Growth
Automotive OEMs
North American OEMs
Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. $20.33 81.7% 30.1% $31,505 $36,048 0.26x 0.25x 0.25x 2.5x 2.0x 1.9x 6.8x 5.0x 10.7% (0.1)%
Ford Motor Company $11.08 82.2% (7.5)% $44,244 $22,287 0.15x 0.15x 0.15x 2.3x 1.9x 1.9x 11.9x 7.2x 6.5% 2.9%
General Motors Company $36.34 77.7% 4.2% $50,895 $43,690 0.33x 0.30x 0.30x 2.2x 2.6x 2.5x NM 5.7x 14.6% (4.5)%
Tesla, Inc. $266.13 68.3% (10.7)% $44,955 $56,845 4.83x 2.91x 2.14x NM NM 16.0x NA NM 0.3% NM
Asian OEMs
Faw Car Co., Ltd. $1.63 67.5% (17.4)% $2,646 $2,233 0.51x 0.46x 0.45x 12.0x 7.7x 7.4x NA 26.2x 4.2% 22.3%
Geely Automobile Holdings Limited $2.88 75.8% (17.9)% $25,839 $23,291 1.58x 1.24x 1.03x 12.5x 8.3x 6.7x 16.2x 12.0x 12.6% 72.7%
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. $34.46 88.2% (10.7)% $61,282 $43,524 0.35x 0.30x 0.29x 2.9x 3.4x 3.1x NA 8.9x 12.1% 8.4%
Hyundai Motor Company $135.18 82.9% (10.9)% $27,991 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NA 8.3x 10.2% 1.7%
Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. $10.39 92.2% (3.8)% $40,648 $24,607 0.24x 0.22x 0.21x 3.3x 2.4x 2.3x NA 7.4x 7.2% 2.9%
SAIC Motor Corporation Limited $5.42 90.3% 13.1% $63,341 $52,286 0.38x 0.35x 0.33x 9.7x 7.1x 6.5x 11.7x 10.4x 3.9% 15.0%
Suzuki Motor Corporation $53.95 84.1% (4.2)% $23,806 $21,083 0.61x 0.58x 0.55x 4.0x 4.0x 3.7x 10.2x 11.4x 15.4% 18.4%
Tata Motors Limited $5.03 67.2% (34.4)% $15,966 $21,205 0.52x 0.42x 0.38x 4.7x 3.1x 2.7x NA 7.7x 11.0% (4.1)%
Toyota Motor Corporation $64.26 87.4% (4.0)% $186,989 $102,813 0.40x 0.37x 0.36x 3.0x 3.3x 3.2x 9.6x 9.3x 13.4% 7.8%
European OEMs
Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $108.41 90.7% (2.1)% $70,482 $95,924 1.09x 0.77x 0.74x 7.1x 5.2x 4.9x 9.3x 7.7x 15.4% 3.8%
Daimler AG $84.97 90.2% (12.9)% $90,904 $52,461 0.30x 0.25x 0.24x 2.8x 2.1x 2.0x 8.8x 7.3x 11.0% 6.0%
Peugeot S.A. $24.09 93.0% 17.6% $21,520 $19,219 0.24x 0.20x 0.20x 3.0x 2.3x 2.1x 9.2x 7.9x 8.1% 21.1%
Renault SA $121.35 97.7% (1.5)% $32,590 $2,750 NM NM NM NM NM NM 6.7x 6.2x 8.8% 14.8%
Volkswagen AG $198.82 83.9% (3.3)% $100,328 $38,846 0.16x 0.13x 0.13x 1.4x 0.8x 0.8x 7.1x 6.0x 11.8% 5.9%
Median 84.0% (4.1)% 0.37x 0.33x 0.32x 3.0x 3.1x 2.9x 9.3x 7.7x 10.8% 6.0%
Mean 83.4% (4.2)% 0.75x 0.56x 0.48x 4.9x 3.7x 4.2x 9.8x 9.1x 9.9% 11.5%
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
23
Public Companies’
Trading Statistics
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings; represents most actively traded public automotive suppliers
For definitions, see page 24.
($ in millions) 3/31/18 % of % Change Enterprise Value as a Multiple of Stock Price as a Multiple of LTM
Stock 52 Wk from Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA LTM 2018 EBITDA Revenue
Company Price High 12/31/17 Capitalization Value LTM 2018E 2019E LTM 2018E 2019E EPS EPS Margin Growth
Automotive Suppliers
Adient plc $59.76 69.2% (32.4)% $5,579 $7,116 0.43x 0.42x 0.41x 6.6x 5.0x 4.3x 8.5x 7.9x 6.5% (1.2)%
Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd. $54.42 84.5% (13.4)% $14,730 $19,624 0.54x 0.52x 0.49x 4.6x 4.1x 3.8x 12.9x 10.7x 11.9% 11.4%
American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. $15.22 75.1% (7.1)% $1,699 $5,301 0.85x 0.76x 0.75x 5.1x 4.3x 4.3x 3.3x 4.3x 16.7% 58.7%
Aptiv PLC $84.97 80.9% 14.9% $22,572 $25,252 1.96x 1.82x 1.71x 12.1x 10.7x 9.9x 20.6x 16.5x 16.2% 5.0%
Autoliv, Inc. $145.94 95.7% 16.4% $12,710 $13,116 1.26x 1.14x 1.06x 10.3x 8.9x 7.8x 22.0x 19.1x 12.3% 3.1%
BorgWarner Inc. $50.23 86.3% (4.5)% $10,586 $12,099 1.23x 1.13x 1.07x 7.4x 6.7x 6.3x 21.0x 11.5x 16.6% 8.0%
Continental AG $274.73 86.9% (3.3)% $54,948 $57,709 1.06x 1.01x 0.96x 7.7x 6.4x 6.0x 14.4x 12.9x 13.8% 8.5%
Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. $122.81 91.0% 1.4% $2,200 $2,471 0.68x 0.69x 0.68x 5.5x 5.3x 5.0x 13.7x 10.7x 12.3% 4.2%
Dana Incorporated $25.76 73.0% (30.3)% $3,747 $5,065 0.70x 0.65x 0.62x 6.4x 5.3x 4.9x 28.5x 8.8x 10.9% 23.7%
DENSO Corporation $54.80 80.6% (21.8)% $42,729 $40,228 0.87x 0.85x 0.79x 6.4x 6.4x 5.9x 14.2x 14.4x 13.5% 10.1%
Faurecia S.A. $80.97 88.2% 11.3% $11,110 $11,828 0.48x 0.53x 0.50x 6.0x 4.7x 4.3x 13.2x 12.4x 7.9% 7.9%
Lear Corporation $186.09 91.9% 12.1% $12,453 $13,165 0.64x 0.61x 0.58x 6.3x 5.8x 5.5x 9.6x 9.6x 10.3% 10.3%
Magna International Inc. $56.28 96.9% 16.7% $20,169 $21,593 0.55x 0.53x 0.51x 5.2x 5.0x 4.7x 9.4x 8.3x 10.7% 6.9%
Schaeffler AG $15.42 74.8% (12.6)% $10,269 $13,275 0.77x 0.74x 0.71x 4.7x 4.4x 4.2x 8.1x 8.2x 16.5% 5.1%
The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company $26.58 72.3% (24.4)% $6,392 $11,325 0.74x 0.71x 0.69x 5.3x 4.7x 4.2x 15.7x 7.1x 13.9% 1.4%
Valeo SA $66.08 79.1% (12.8)% $15,723 $18,460 0.81x 0.75x 0.68x 7.3x 5.7x 5.1x 13.8x 12.7x 11.1% 12.3%
Visteon Corporation $110.24 78.4% (0.1)% $3,409 $3,179 1.01x 0.98x 0.92x 10.8x 8.4x 7.6x 24.5x 16.6x 9.3% (0.5)%
Median 80.9% (4.5)% 0.77x 0.74x 0.69x 6.4x 5.3x 5.0x 13.8x 10.7x 12.3% 7.9%
Mean 82.6% (5.3)% 0.86x 0.81x 0.77x 6.9x 6.0x 5.5x 14.9x 11.3x 12.4% 10.3%
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
24
Public Companies’
Trading Statistics
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings; represents most actively traded public automotive dealers
EBITDA and Enterprise Value adjusted for floor plan debt and interest expense
For definitions, see page 24.
($ in millions) 3/31/18 % of % Change Enterprise Value as a Multiple of Stock Price as a Multiple of LTM
Stock 52 Wk from Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA LTM 2018 EBITDA Revenue
Company Price High 12/31/17 Capitalization Value LTM 2018E 2019E LTM 2018E 2019E EPS EPS Margin Growth
Automotive Dealers
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $67.50 88.4% 8.7% $1,412 $2,370 0.37x 0.36x 0.36x 7.7x 7.2x 7.0x 10.9x 8.9x 4.7% (1.1)%
AutoNation, Inc. $46.78 75.4% (11.0)% $4,296 $6,930 0.32x 0.32x 0.32x 8.1x 7.2x 7.1x 13.8x 9.6x 4.0% (0.3)%
CarMax, Inc. $61.94 79.8% 7.5% $11,202 $24,179 1.35x 1.33x 1.25x 18.0x 17.7x 16.8x 16.6x 13.6x 7.5% 10.1%
Group 1 Automotive, Inc. $65.34 77.4% (1.0)% $1,320 $2,698 0.24x 0.24x 0.24x 7.2x 7.3x 7.3x 7.4x 7.7x 3.4% 2.2%
Lithia Motors, Inc. $100.52 78.5% (13.9)% $2,515 $3,505 0.35x 0.28x 0.28x 8.1x 7.2x 6.7x 11.8x 9.5x 4.3% 16.2%
Penske Automotive Group, Inc. $44.33 80.8% 0.6% $3,767 $4,661 0.22x 0.21x 0.21x 7.2x 5.9x 5.8x NA 8.7x 3.0% 6.3%
Sonic Automotive, Inc. $18.95 83.3% 15.4% $804 $1,822 0.18x 0.18x 0.18x 6.4x 6.3x 6.1x 9.3x 8.4x 2.9% 1.4%
Median 79.8% 0.6% 0.32x 0.28x 0.28x 7.7x 7.2x 7.0x 11.3x 8.9x 4.0% 2.2%
Mean 80.5% 0.9% 0.43x 0.42x 0.40x 9.0x 8.4x 8.1x 11.6x 9.5x 4.2% 5.0%
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
25
Public Companies’
Trading Statistics
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings
Represents most actively traded public automotive aftermarket companies
Definitions
EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
Enterprise Value: Market Capitalization + Total Debt + Preferred Equity + Minority Interest – Cash and Short-Term Investments
LTM: Last Twelve Months
EPS: Earnings Per Share
($ in millions) 3/31/18 % of % Change Enterprise Value as a Multiple of Stock Price as a Multiple of LTM
Stock 52 Wk from Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA LTM 2018 EBITDA Revenue
Company Price High 12/31/17 Capitalization Value LTM 2018E 2019E LTM 2018E 2019E EPS EPS Margin Growth
Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $118.55 78.1% 29.0% $8,770 $9,268 0.99x 0.99x 0.97x 10.2x 9.7x 9.0x 15.8x 17.7x 9.7% (2.0)%
AutoZone, Inc. $648.69 81.3% (8.7)% $17,450 $22,173 1.99x 1.95x 1.89x 9.3x 9.0x 8.8x 12.4x 13.3x 21.5% 3.6%
Monro, Inc. $53.60 83.6% (1.5)% $1,758 $2,149 1.96x 1.81x 1.66x 12.7x 11.3x 10.3x 30.4x 20.6x 15.5% 9.6%
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. $247.38 88.6% 12.0% $20,607 $23,539 2.62x 2.48x 2.35x 12.0x 11.5x 10.9x 19.6x 16.0x 21.8% 4.5%
Median 82.4% 5.3% 1.98x 1.88x 1.77x 11.1x 10.5x 9.7x 17.7x 16.9x 18.5% 4.0%
Mean 82.9% 7.7% 1.89x 1.81x 1.72x 11.0x 10.4x 9.7x 19.5x 16.9x 17.1% 3.9%
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
26
6.5x
9.7x
11.6x
7.2x
9.7x
13.2x
6.9x
9.4x
13.0x
6.5x
9.5x
11.9x
7.3x
9.5x
11.0x
6.9x
9.0x
11.0x
0.0x
4.0x
8.0x
12.0x
16.0x
Automotive Suppliers Automotive Dealers Automotive Aftermarket
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 LTM
15.9x
14.9x
13.0x
10.7x 11.1x
9.8x
0.0x
4.0x
8.0x
12.0x
16.0x
20.0x
Automotive OEMs
FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015
FY 2016 FY 2017 LTM
5-Year Mean: 9.5x
5-Year Mean: 13.1x
5-Year Mean: 12.1x
5-Year Mean: 6.9x
Multiples have been adjusted historically to reflect corresponding adjustments made on pages 21-24
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings
Historical
Trading
Multiples
Historical EBITDA Multiples Since 2013
On average, Automotive OEMs are trading at 9.8x LTM EPS, more than 3.0x lower than their 5-
year average price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple. Automotive Suppliers (6.9x) are on average trading
at EBITDA multiples right in line with their 5-year average, while Automotive Dealers (9.0x) are
approximately 0.5x lower than their 5-year average. The Automotive Aftermarket index is currently
trading at a lower EBITDA multiple relative to their 5-year average, and their LTM average of 11.0x,
while in line with their 2017 multiple, is lower than four of the last five fiscal year end average
EBITDA multiples6.
Historical P/E Multiples Since 2013
Multiples have been adjusted historically to reflect corresponding adjustments made on pages 21-24
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
27
M&A Activity by
Quarter
Note: All transactions with available target financial
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
M&A activity in the automotive sector decreased in Q1 2018 over the fourth quarter of 2017, with
11 completed transactions. With a total of 71 transactions for the last twelve months, M&A activity
is weak compared to recent years. In 2017, 2016 and 2015, 80, 113 and 122 transactions,
respectively, were closed in the automotive sector. Activity has been low since it dropped after Q1
2016, when 38 transactions were completed6.
Automotive Industry M&A Trends
27
29
34
38
22
26
27
20
25
23
12
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
28
Notable M&A Activity – Last 12 Months
Automotive Suppliers
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence and company filings
Selected M&A Transaction Analysis
($ in millions)
Announced Target Name Target Business Description Acquirer Name
Enterprise
Value
LTM
Revenue
LTM
EBITDA
EBITDA
Margin
EV /
Revenue
EV /
EBITDA
Mar-18
Driveline Business of GKN
Plc
Comprises automotive driveline systems, solutions, and off-
highway powertrain businesses
Dana Incorporated $6,169.8 $7,687.2 $837.0 10.9% 0.80x 7.4x
Feb-18
DVS Industries Private
Limited
Manufactures crankshafts for commercial, agriculture, and
off-highway vehicles
MM Forgings Limited $0.7 $2.1 NM NA 0.34x NA
Dec-17 Uni-Bond Brake, LLC
Manufactures brake components for automotive and heavy-
duty applications
Amanda Products, LLC $3.0 $13.0 NM NA 0.23x NA
Nov-17 AA Gaskets Pty Ltd
Designs, manufactures and supplies gaskets and sealing
products for automotive markets and manufacturing
industries
GUD Holdings Limited $22.9 $12.8 NM NA 1.78x NA
Oct-17 CAP Corporation
Develops, manufactures and sells wiper blades wiper arms
and related auto parts in South Korea
NPD Co., Ltd.; SG2017
Private Equity Fund
$70.1 $79.5 $11.5 14.5% 0.88x 6.1x
Sep-17 STARCO Europe A/S
Manufactures and distributes wheel and tire solutions for
OEMs worldwide
Kenda Rubber Industrial
Co. Ltd.
$21.2 $129.4 NM NA 0.16x NA
Sep-17 IMC S.r.l. Manufactures automotive parts Mittel S.p.A $71.6 $47.8 NM NA 1.50x NA
Aug-17
NEUE HALBERG-GUSS
GmbH
Manufactures engine blocks, cam shafts and cylinder heads
S.D.L Süddeutsche
Beteiligungs GmbH
$16.4 $483.4 NM NA 0.03x NA
Jul-17 METALLARTE srl.
Manufactures entry and compartment doors for
manufacturers of leisure vehicles
Lippert Components, Inc. $16.7 $12.5 NM NA 1.34x NA
Jun-17
Pacific Insight Electronics
Corp.
Together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops,
manufactures and sells electronic products and full-service
solutions
Methode Electronics, Inc. $104.4 $92.7 $10.8 11.6% 1.13x 9.7x
Jun-17 Groeneveld Groep B.V.
Engages in the development, production, marketing and
sale of automatic greasing systems and effective safety
systems for various vehicles and equipment
The Timken Company $280.0 $105.0 NM NA 2.67x NA
Jun-17 Nexen Tech Corporation
Provides wiring harnesses for the automobile industry in
South Korea
Route One Fund $65.5 $69.5 $5.8 8.3% 0.94x 11.3x
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
29
Notable M&A Activity – Last 12 Months
Automotive Suppliers
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence and company filings
Selected M&A Transaction Analysis
($ in millions)
Announced Target Name Target Business Description Acquirer Name
Enterprise
Value
LTM
Revenue
LTM
EBITDA
EBITDA
Margin
EV /
Revenue
EV /
EBITDA
Jun-17
United Welding Services
Inc.
Manufactures truck accessories CURT Manufacturing, LLC $21.5 $35.3 NM NA 0.61x NA
May-17
Yixing Prince Ceramics
Co., Ltd.
Researches, produces and trades honeycomb ceramics for
customers in China and internationally
Shandong Sinocera
Functional Material Co.,
Ltd.
$99.7 $18.9 NM NA 5.27x NA
Apr-17 Velvac Inc.
Designs, manufactures and supplies mirrors, parts and
components to truck equipment and recreational (RV)
aftermarkets, as well as heavy truck, RV and specialty
vehicle OEMs
The Eastern Company $39.5 $58.7 NM NA 0.67x NA
Mean $466.9 $589.9 $216.3 11.3% 1.22x 8.6x
Median $39.5 $53.3 $3.0 10.9% 1.03x 8.5x
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
30
Duff & Phelps’ Ongoing and
Recent Transactions
Valuation opinion to determine
fair market value of securities
owned by the GM UAW
Retiree Medical Benefits Trust
ERISA Advisory Fairness Opinion
has been acquired by
Takata Europe GmbH has
completed the sale of certain
assets and liabilities to Key
Safety Systems, Inc.
Financial Advisor
has been acquired by
Sell Side Advisor Sell Side Advisor
has been acquired by
Solvency Opinion
has completed the spin-off of
Sell Side Advisor
has been acquired by
BMW Group and Daimler AG
combined their mobility
services in an equally-owned
joint venture
Financial Advisor
Independent financial advisor
to BMW Group and Daimler
AG in connection with the
transaction
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
31
Sources
1. “Global Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data.
2. “U.S. Light Vehicle Sales.” WardsAuto Public Data.
3. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
4. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
5. “Passenger Car Registrations: +5.8% first two months of 2018; +4.3% in
February.” European Automobile Manufacturers Association. March 15, 2018.
6. S&P Global Market Intelligence.
7. “Global Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 – Final Results.” EVVolumes.com.
8. “Trump Administration May Eliminate Increases in Fuel Economy.” The Wall
Street Journal. April 27, 2018.
9. “California Sues Trump Administration Over Vehicle Emissions.” The Wall Street
Journal. May 1, 2018.
10. “USA Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 Q4 and Full Year.” EVVolumes.com.
11. “Carmakers Get Their Wish on Fuel Efficiency Standards.” The Wall Street
Journal. April 3, 2018.
12. “Consumers and Auto Sales.” Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.
13. “EPA Tentatively Decides to Ease Vehicle Emission Standards.” The Wall Street
Journal. March 23, 2018.
14. “Europe Plug-in Vehicle Sales for Q4 and 2017 Full Year.” EVVolumes.com.
15. “Germany Plug-in Vehicle Sales 2017 Q3 and YTD.” EVVolumes.com.
16. “Volkswagen Plans Increase Electric Vehicle Production, Sales in U.S. in 2020.”
Automotive News. September 14, 2017.
17. “China Plug-in Sales for 2017-Q4 and Full Year – Update.” EV-Volumes.
18. “China Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data.
19. The Conference Board.
20. “Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit 2018:Q1.” Federal Reserve
Bank of New York Research and Statistics Group. February 2018.
21. U.S. Energy Information Administration.
22. Dave Mead and Porscha Stiger, “The 2014 plunge in import petroleum prices:
What happened?” Beyond the Numbers: Global Economy, vol. 4, no. 9. U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 2015.
23. “North American Light Vehicle Production” WardsAuto Public Data.
24. Keith Naughton, Jamie Butters, David Welch, Tommasco Ebhardt. “American
automakers scrap cars, ceding market to foreign makers.” Chicago Tribune.
January 23, 2018.
25. Paul Lienert, Norihiko Shirouzu. “U.S.-China trade war could hit German
automakers, plus Tesla, Ford.” Reuters. April 4, 2018.
26. Ian Thibodeau. “Only Mustang, Focus crossover to survive Ford car cuts.” The
Detroit News. April 25, 2018.
27. Chester Dawson and Robert Wall. “Auto Makers Weigh In on China’s Tariff
Retaliation Threat.” The Wall Street Journal. April 4, 2018.
28. “Report Details How Amazon is Disrupting the Automotive Aftermarket.”
Ratchet+Wrench. September 8, 2017.
29. “Global aftermarket demand to grow by 4.4% in 2018: Frost & Sullivan.” Economic
Times: Auto. April 27, 2018.
30. Anna Hirtenstein. “Electric Vehicles on the Road Are Set to Triple in Two Years.”
Bloomberg. May 30, 2018.
31. “Global EV Outlook 2018.” International Energy Agency. May 30, 2018.
32. David Shepardson, Mike Stone. “Trump threatens to tax European auto imports.”
Reuters. March 3, 2018.
Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018
32
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Automotive Industry Insights - Summer 2018

  • 1. Automotive J u n e 2 0 1 8 R e v i e w I N D U S T R Y I N S I G H T S
  • 2. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 2 Highlights Q 1 2 0 1 8 B Y T H E N U M B E R S The auto industry showed signs of moderate improvement in the beginning of 2018, as global sales and earnings increased. The automotive industry continues to evolve as electrification gains a stronger foothold globally but North American automakers shift towards larger, more profitable vehicles. Global light vehicle sales increased 2.3% in Q1 2018 relative to Q1 2017. In the United States, light vehicle sales grew 2.0% in Q1 2018 to 4.1 million units. Over the last-twelve months, overall light vehicle sales have grown at a slightly slower pace of 1.6% over the prior twelve- month period1. In March 2018, U.S. light vehicle sales reached an approximately 17.4 million-unit seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR)2, offering hope that vehicle sales will remain steady into 2018. Interest rates on consumer installment loans for new automobiles reached 4.74% in February 2018, up from 4.52% in February 2017, providing a headwind for the industry3. In 2017, auto production and sales in China were up 2.89% and 3.04%, respectively, over 2016; However, SAAR has remained flat through March 20184,18. In Europe, January and February increases in new passenger registrations offset a decrease in March, which culminated in a 0.7% increase in Q1 2018 relative to Q1 20175. M&A activity in the automotive sector decreased for the fourth quarter in a row, to 71 deals in the last twelve months (LTM) from 95 over the same period a year ago6. Public company equity performance in the Automotive Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Dealer, Aftermarket and Supplier sectors all trended downward over Q1 20186. While OEMs are transitioning to focus on truck and SUV manufacturing in response to consumer demand in North America, new technologies such as autonomous vehicles, ride-hailing/sharing and electrification, continued to dominate headlines. 2.4%, 3.5%, 4.3% and 6.4% decreases in Duff & Phelps’ market- weighted indexes of automotive OEMs, Dealers, Aftermarket Parts & Repair and Suppliers, respectively, over Q1 20186 Global electric vehicle sales surpassed 1 million units in 2017 for the first time ever7 In March 2018, China’s auto sales rose 1.9% y-o-y4,18 In March 2018, U.S. light vehicle SAAR increased slightly to 17.4 million2 2.3% increase in global light vehicle sales in Q1 20181 1.4% increase in new passenger registrations in Europe in the LTM period5 See page 31 for data sources
  • 3. 3 Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 Table of Contents 4 Quarterly Tech Trend: Ride-Hailing/Sharing Earnings and Growth Trends18 M&A Activity27 Duff & Phelps’ Ongoing and Recent Transactions30 Auto Industry Indicators10 Public Company Trading Statistics21 Automotive Landscape by Geography15
  • 4. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 4 BYD 9.3% BAIC 8.5% Tesla 8.4% BMW Group 8.4%VW Group 5.8% Other 59.6% Quarterly Tech Trend: Electrification Legislation and consumer demand for more environmentally friendly vehicles is driving production of models that can run on alternative fuels, such as ethanol, hydrogen fuel cells, clean diesel, electric power and hybrid solutions. Governments are helping push growth in an effort to reduce energy use and greenhouse emissions, while consumer demand is driven by the cost of gas and environmental concerns. Global plug-in vehicles sales in 2017 were up 27% from 2016, surpassing 1 million units for the first time. 66% were pure electric cars and 34% were plug-in hybrids. At the end of the 2017, 3.2 million electric vehicles were on the road worldwide. Over the past year, public charging locations have doubled while the number of plug-in models available surpassed 170, up from 70 in 2013. China’s market for New Energy Vehicles (NEV) is the clear global leader in the movement, with sales in China representing 49.5% of the global plug-in market in 20177. Although automotive OEM BYD, which sells mostly plug-in hybrid vehicles, lost 3.9% of the plug-in market share in 2017, the company led the market for the third straight year. BAIC, which produces pure electric vehicles (BEV) took the second global market position. Despite delays in Model-3 production, Tesla held the third highest market share in 2017, tied with BMW. Volkswagen rounded out the top five OEMs in the space. VW, BMW and Daimler estimate 25% of their sales will be electric vehicles over the next decade7. 0.17% 0.25% 0.37% 0.61% 0.83% 1.28% 1.95% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% -200 100 400 700 1,000 1,300 1,600 1,900 2,200 2,500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P Thousands Plug-In Sales PEV Market Share Global Electric Vehicle Sales Source: “Global Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 – Final Results.” EVVolumes.com. Global EV Market Share Source: “Global Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 – Final Results.” EVVolumes.com.
  • 5. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 5 Quarterly Tech Trend: Electrification Electric vehicle sales increased 73% in 2017 to 605,000 passenger vehicles and 198,000 commercial vehicles, representing a growth rate 30 times faster than the overall car market in China17. In 2017 the country reduced its purchase tax waiver for small-engine vehicles, an incentive that was introduced in 2016, and implemented a rollback in NEV policies18. Federal subsidies for NEVs decreased by 20%, and local subsidies were reduced by as much as 50%, making China’s 2017 electric vehicle growth even more impressive18. Such strong growth is driven by mandated ownership restrictions on internal combustion engine vehicles. Notably, domestic production drives over 95% of China’s electric vehicle sales17. China, South Korea and Japan remain dominant in the space for EV battery production, benefiting from the shift toward EVs both at home and globally. China Source: “China Plug-in Sales for 2017-Q4 and Full Year – Update.” EVVolumes.com China Electric Vehicle Sales 1.40% 2.40% 3.60% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2015 2016 2017 2018P Thousands Plug-In Commercial Vehicle Sales Plug-In Passenger Car Sales Passenger New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market Share
  • 6. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 6 On April 1, 2018 the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revised the federal vehicle emission standards which were last updated by the Obama administration in 2016. The new plan, a joint proposed rule between the EPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), would ease regulations for vehicle model years 2022-2025, and could potentially halt all stricter requirements for vehicle model years 2020-20268. States currently have the option to abide by the emission requirements of the state of California, which has an EPA waiver for permission to set its own stricter standards. Current federal rules, which the Obama administration negotiated with California in order to set a consistent national policy, mandate an average Fuel Economy of 36 miles per gallon for all vehicles sold by the year 2025. The new draft proposal, however, seeks to override California’s waiver in order to lower emission standards under one national program. In late April, California and 16 other states, as well as the District of Columbia, sued the Trump administration, stating that the reduction in vehicle emission standards would violate the Clean Air Act and the Administration Procedures Act9. OEMs have voiced their preference for a policy that is consistent across state lines13. Quarterly Tech Trend: Electrification United States U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Electric vehicle sales surpassed 1% of the U.S. market for the first time in 2017, but growth in market share remains modest10. 2017 plug-in vehicles sales were up 27% from 2016, reaching just below 200,000. 53% were pure electric cars10. 0.38% 0.62% 0.73% 0.66% 0.90% 1.17% 2.38% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P Thousands Plug-In Sales PEV Market Share Source: “USA Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 Q4 and Full Year.” EVVolumes.com
  • 7. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 7 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Light Trucks Autos 97% 85% 3% 15% 2017 Actual 2025 Required Total U.S. ZEV Sales Total U.S Light Vehicle Sales Sales of Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) will need to demonstrate significant growth in order to meet current government targets12. However, U.S. automakers have voiced complaints over producing smaller, less profitable electric, hybrid and fuel efficient vehicles. The “footprint” model for efficiency regulations, which requires smaller incremental increases in efficiency as vehicle size increases, exacerbates the gap in profitability between passenger vehicles and light trucks. Further, consumer demand for SUVs and pick-ups has soared over the past few years in alignment with decreased fuel costs, resulting in lower-than-expected demand for the most energy-efficient vehicles11. Quarterly Tech Trend: Electrification United States under EPA’s 2016 policy U.S. Zero Emission Vehicle Sales U.S. Light Vehicle Sales, SAAR Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), May 3, 2018Source: “Consumers and Auto Sales.” Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers Millions
  • 8. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 8 Quarterly Tech Trend: Electrification In Europe, 2017 electric vehicle sales were up 39% from 2016 to 307,400 units. 51% were BEVs and 49% were plug-in hybrids. Share of the total vehicle market reached 1.74% for the year. With varying incentives and vehicle emission regulations among European countries, the market share and the mix between plug-in hybrids and BEVs remain quite diverse. Norway’s electric vehicle share of its market hit 32.5% in 201714. Germany, with the second highest electric vehicle penetration, more than doubled market share in 2017 after implementing a new incentive scheme in 201615. The Renault Zoe EV, BMW i3 EV/EREV, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Nissan Leaf EV and Tesla Model S were the top selling models in Europe in 201714. Last fall, the Frankfurt-based IAA exhibited a strong focus on electric vehicles, and included an announcement from Volkswagen to offer 80 battery-powered zero-emission models by 2025. While European OEMs are investing heavily in the electric vehicle transition, they remain worried about competition from Asia. VW’s Chief Executive Herbert Diess announced at the Frankfurt auto show his belief that European automakers and suppliers should collaborate in order to play a larger role in the market for electric battery technology, suggesting an area of coming growth in the European auto industry16. Europe 0.31% 0.48% 0.62% 1.22% 1.30% 1.74% 2.39% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018P Thousands Plug-In Sales PEV Market Share E.U. & E.F.T.A Electric Vehicle Sales 2-step reduction in tax incentives for plug-in hybrids in the Netherlands Source: “Europe Plug-in Vehicle Sales for Q4 and 2017 Full Year.” EVVolumes.com
  • 9. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 9 Quarterly Tech Trend: Electrification The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts the number of EVs on the road will more than triple to 13 million by the end the decade, but the expected growth in the electric vehicle market will depend on consumer demand30. EV sales are highest among cars with the furthest driving range, and for consumers to continue buying, performance will need continued improvement11. Consumer demand for EVs will also be dependent on cost; battery costs are the main driver of higher selling prices for EVs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles31. Cost reduction and performance drivers of lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles include battery chemistry, energy storage capacity, manufacturing scale and charging speeds. OEMs have announced investments in large-scale battery manufacturing facilities, providing optimism about future production capacity and that will provide economies of scale. Cost reduction will also be driven by increased battery capacity, which will allow for larger driving ranges, as a shift in battery chemistry away from cobalt, which will allow for higher energy density as well31. Advancements in lightweight material technology will further enhance EV performance, as lower- weight vehicle components, both in and out of the battery cell, will allow for improved electric driving ranges. The IEA predicts that by 2030, lithium-ion battery components will have completely shifted from graphite and carbon alloys along with organic solvents and lithium salts to graphite/silicon composites and polymers31. Electric Battery Technology Annual Demand for Added EV Battery Capacity Demand for batteries is expected to rise by a factor of 15 between 2017 and 201330,31. 68 82 101 125 155 191 234 285 344 411 488 573 669 776 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2017 2018P 2019P 2020P 2021P 2022P 2023P 2024P 2025P 2026P 2027P 2028P 2029P 2030P gigawatt-hours(GWh) Sources: “Electric Vehicles on the Road Are Set to Triple in Two Years.” Bloomberg. May 30, 2018.; “Global EV Outlook 2018.” International Energy Agency. May 30, 2018.
  • 10. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 10 Auto Indicators In March 2018, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) declined further from its 17-year high in November, but is still up 2.2% from a year ago19. The S&P 500 Automobiles Index also decreased. It fell to 97.81 in March 2018, after reaching the highest peak since 2015 in November 20176. In March 2018, U.S. light vehicle reached 17.40 million vehicles, slightly above March 2017 sales2. Meanwhile, auto loan balances and originations have continued their rise since 2011 along with the CCI. Debt balances on auto loans reached $1.23 trillion in the first quarter, up $8 billion quarterly and $62 billion annually, continuing their 6-year upward trend20. Sources: The Conference Board; S&P Global Market Intelligence; “U.S. Light Vehicle Sales.” WardsAuto Public Data; Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), April 30, 2018 Consumer Confidence Mar '18: 127.7 Mar '18: 97.81 Mar '18: 17.398 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 30 50 70 90 110 130 150 Mar '10 Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18 MillionsofVehicles Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) S&P 500 Automobiles Index U.S. Light Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks, SAAR
  • 11. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 11 Auto Indicators U.S. consumer spending has seen a relatively steady increase since late 2013. Expenditures on durable goods reached a record level of $1,504.80 billion in March 2018 after a slight drop in the first two months of the year6. The rising trend in auto sales has slowed compared to overall durable goods spending. September 2017 saw a big push after an 8-month decline, but sales have fallen back down to levels seen a year ago. In March 2018, U.S. light vehicle sales reached 17.40 million vehicles2. Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; FRED, January 18, 2018; “U.S. Light Vehicle Sales.” WardsAuto Public Data. Consumer Spending Mar '18: $1,504.80 Mar '18: 17.398 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900 $1,000 $1,100 $1,200 $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 Mar '10 Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18 MillionsofVehicles Billions U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures: Durable Goods, SAAR U.S. Light Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks, SAAR
  • 12. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 12 Auto Indicators As most consumers lease or buy cars with loans, increases in interest rates can reduce consumer ability to buy vehicles and lower auto sales volumes. Low interest rates help drive car sales. As the benchmark federal funds rate has continued to rise since 2015, car loans stand to become more expensive. Finance rates on new auto loans have followed suit, reaching 4.7% in February 20183. The gradual rise since 2015 has complemented a modest rise in delinquency rates, which reached 4.3% of auto loan balances in Q1 2018, up from 4.1% in Q4 201720. Key Interest Rates Not Seasonally Adjusted Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; FRED, April 30, 2018 Mar '18: 1.51% Mar '18: 2.84% Feb '18: 4.74% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Mar '10 Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18 Effective Federal Funds Rate 10-Year Treasury Finance Rate on Consumer Installment Loans at Commercial Banks, New Autos 48-Month Loan
  • 13. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 13 Auto Indicators Crude oil prices have steadily risen since early 2016. In March 2018, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price averaged $62.73 per barrel and the Brent spot price averaged $66.02 per barrel21. Oversupply, largely due to growth in U.S. production, and the decision by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to maintain rather than cut production levels in response to declining prices, led to a 56.3% drop in crude oil prices between June 2014 and January 201522. Before the drop, global light vehicle sales continued to grow despite rising gas prices; since the drop, lower gas prices have provided tailwinds for further growth in auto sales. The increase in oil prices over the last two years has not correlated with an impact on the global auto SAAR, however. September 2017 saw a record high global SAAR of 99.88, though it has fallen back to 94.08 in March 20181. Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; “Global Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data; U.S. Energy Information Administration, April 30, 2018 Crude Oil Prices Mar '18: $62.73 Mar '18: $66.02 Mar '18: 94.08 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 Mar '10 Mar '11 Mar '12 Mar '13 Mar '14 Mar '15 Mar '16 Mar '17 Mar '18 MillionsofVehicles Cushing, OK, WTI Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) Europe Brent Spot Price FOB (Dollars per Barrel) Global Light Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks, SAAR
  • 14. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 14 Auto Indicators Global light vehicle sales have risen approximately 1.6% in the last-twelve months, with 8 of the 12 months experiencing light vehicle sales growth y-o-y. March generated the highest light vehicle sales volume at 9.40 million, while February registered the lowest, totaling just 6.75 million. Over the last-twelve months, January saw the strongest y-o-y growth (7.0%), driven by significant sales increases in Eastern Europe (21.6%), South America (23.5%), China (10.2%) and Korea (9.3%), Finally, September registered the highest SAAR in the last-twelve months, reaching just above 99.5 million-unit, while January generated the highest SAAR in 2018, reaching 94.8 million units1. In 2018, South America has registered the highest sales volume increase at 15.4%, followed by Eastern Europe (13.5%). During this time period, the three largest markets, China, Western Europe and the U.S. have grown 2.4%, (0.1%) and 2.0%, respectively1. Sources: “Global Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data. Global Light Vehicle Sales Sources: “Global Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data. 4.44 0.68 5.29 8.89 4.28 4.53 0.79 5.40 9.02 4.41 0.0 5.0 10.0 Millions YTD 2017 YTD 2018 Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Millions Millions Global LV Sales Volume LTM SAAR Global Light Vehicle Sales YTD
  • 15. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 15 North American Automotive Landscape While U.S. sales are up y-o-y, reaching 17.2 million vehicles through the first quarter of 2018, North American automobile manufacturers’ light vehicle production fell slightly in Q1 2018. In the first three months, North American light vehicle production fell 2.7% over the prior year, driven mostly by a 6.8% decrease y-o-y in March, from 1.67 million to 1.56 million23. Production cuts suggest OEM’s predictions given an increasingly dynamic and uncertain marketplace, amid escalating trade war threats and replete with new technology and trends. In an effort to maintain profitability and growth, the “Detroit 3” (Ford, GM and FCA) are all considering cutting sedan production as a response to shifting consumer trends towards SUVs and trucks24. In April, Ford announced it will cut all sedan production except the Mustang and the Chinese-built Focus, but plans to add five new SUVs to its lineup by 202026. On the trade war front, China is contemplating placing tariffs on U.S.-made automobiles in response to President Trump’s push to place a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports that would affect Chinese suppliers27. China’s 25% automobile tariff threat would significantly impact several OEMs that rely on exporting to China; Tesla, BMW’s South Carolina facility, Daimler’s Alabama factory and Ford all stand to be negatively impacted25,27. Trump has also threatened to increase tariffs on European cars in the event that the European Union follows through on its expressed intent to respond to Trump’s steel and aluminum imports32. Seasonally Adjusted Source: “US Light Vehicle Sales.” WardsAuto Public Data. Monthly North American Light Vehicle Production (millions) Monthly U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (millions) Source: “North American Light Vehicle Production.” WardsAuto Public Data. 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 Prior LTM LTM 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 SAAR Millions 2016 2017 2018 2017 SAAR 2018 SAAR
  • 16. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 16 Chinese Automotive Landscape In March 2018, China’s auto sales were significantly higher than February’s sales and up 1.85% y-o-y4,18. Sales volume for the first quarter of 2018 was up just slightly over the same period in 2017. Auto production in China was up 0.3% y-o-y in March, but was down over the three months through Q1 2018 compared to Q1 2017. Weak production levels were driven by high dealership inventory levels18. China’s light vehicle SAAR in March was 28.9 million vehicles, up 4.0% from February and inline with 2017 annual sales18. The weak auto market in China for the quarter is partly due to decreased demand after a rush to buy cars before the end of 2017 when China’s purchase tax waiver for small-engine vehicles expired. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers estimates the market share of small-engine vehicles fell 1.7% from December 2017 to January 20184. In April, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (DNRC) announced a plan to remove foreign equity restrictions on NEVs and special-purpose vehicles this year. The released five-year plan will eventually be extended to commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, as well18. Meanwhile, the threat of a tariff war persists between China and the U.S. Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. “China Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data. Monthly Auto Sales 23.3% -5.1% 4.2% -1.8% 0.2% 4.9% 6.4% 5.6% 5.7% 2.0% 0.6% -1.5% 10.71% -11.40% 1.85% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Millions 2016 Sales 2017 Sales 2018 Sales 2017 Y-o-Y Sales Growth 2018 Y-o-Y Sales Growth
  • 17. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 17 1.17 1.25 1.08 1.13 1.89 1.79 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 Millions January February March 14.96 15.17 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Prior LTM LTM Millions Note: Europe is defined as the European Union Source: “Passenger Car Registrations: +5.8% first two months of 2018; +4.3% in February.” European Automobile Manufacturers Association. March 15, 2018. European Automotive Landscape New passenger vehicle registrations in Europe demonstrated healthy growth in the first two months of 2018, followed by a decline in March, which resulted in 0.7% growth quarter-over- quarter. In addition, for the last-twelve months, new passenger registrations grew 1.4% over the prior last-twelve month period. New registrations increased 7.1% in January y-o-y to 1.25 million, however, March saw new passenger registrations slip 5.3% y-o-y to 1.79 million. This overall decrease in registrations in March was the first y-o-y decline since 2013, and was driven by a substantial decrease in Europe’s largest market, the United Kingdom (15.7%), and a slight decrease in Europe’s second largest market, Germany (3.4%). Overall, in Q1 2018, 21 of the 27 countries in the European Union have demonstrated new passenger registration growth over Q1 2017, and 11 of those 21 have generated double-digit growth over that time period5. Source: “Passenger Car Registrations: +5.8% first two months of 2018; +4.3% in February.” European Automobile Manufacturers Association. March 15, 2018. New Passenger Vehicle Registrations
  • 18. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 18 $18.8 $13.4 $7.5 $20.4 $14.1 $7.6 $10.3 $2.3 $0.6 $1.4 $11.1 $2.5 $0.6 $1.4 $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 Automotive OEMs Automotive Suppliers Automotive Dealers Automotive Aftermarket Revenue: Prior LTM (Average) Revenue: LTM (Average) EBITDA: Prior LTM (Average) EBITDA: LTM (Average) Revenue and EBITDA Growth Automotive OEMs averaged approximately $103.8 billion and $11.1 billion in LTM revenue and EBITDA, respectively, demonstrating significant EBITDA growth (6.4%) over the prior last-twelve- months period. Automotive Supplier revenue and EBITDA both grew at rates of 10.3%%, respectively, exhibiting slightly lower sales growth than their customers but higher EBITDA growth. Automotive Dealers generated an average of $13.4 billion in revenue and $605 million in EBITDA, and demonstrated limited top- and bottom-line growth in the LTM period. Finally, the Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair industry on average experienced revenue growth (3.9%), but EBITDA contraction, declining 3.8% to an average of $1.35 billion6. LTM Revenue and EBITDA ($ billions) Note: LTM as of the most recently available reporting date for each company Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings Revenue EBITDA $97.5 $103.8 Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Revenue EBITDA Definitions EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization LTM: Last Twelve Months
  • 19. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 19 Earnings Performance Average LTM EBITDA margins exhibited varying levels of consistency relative to the prior LTM period, depending on the automotive segment. On an EBITDA basis, Automotive OEMs experienced a roughly 60 basis points (bps) increase, while Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers saw an average decrease of nearly 120 bps y-o-y. Meanwhile, Automotive Suppliers and Automotive Dealers saw EBITDA margins contract by only 20 and 10 bps, respectively6. In all cases, EBIT margin delta was either equal to or less severe y-o-y. Margin Performance EBITDA EBIT EBITDA EBIT EBITDA EBIT EBITDA EBIT Note: LTM as of the most recently available reporting date for each company Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings Definitions EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization EBIT: Earnings Before Interest and Taxes LTM: Last Twelve Months 9.3% 12.6% 4.3% 18.3% 9.9% 12.4% 4.2% 17.1% 4.7% 8.7% 3.7% 15.1% 5.0% 8.5% 3.6% 14.0% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% Automotive OEMs Automotive Suppliers Automotive Dealers Automotive Aftermarket EBITDA: Prior LTM (Average) EBITDA: LTM (Average) EBIT: Prior LTM (Average) EBIT: LTM (Average)
  • 20. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 20 Capital Expenditures Automotive OEM capital expenditures increased approximately 4.2% in the LTM period versus the prior LTM period. On the other hand, Automotive Suppliers, Dealers and Automotive Aftermarket each decreased their capital expenditures over the prior LTM period, at 2.8%, 4.4% and 3.6%, respectively6. Capital Expenditures Note: LTM as of the most recently available reporting date for each company Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings $8.12 $1.19 $0.19 $0.32 $8.46 $1.16 $0.18 $0.31 $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.0 Automotive OEMs Automotive Suppliers Automotive Dealers Automotive Aftermarket CapEx: Prior LTM (Average) CapEx: LTM (Average)
  • 21. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 21 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% Mar '17 May '17 Jul '17 Sep '17 Nov '17 Jan '18 Mar '18 Automotive Dealers S&P 500 Automotive Suppliers Automotive OEMs Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair Public Company Equity Performance Over the past 12 months, the Automotive OEM index and Automotive Suppliers index have trended similarly to each other, with the Automotive Supplier index barely outgaining the Automotive OEM index, 18.7% to 18.2%. These indices outperformed the S&P index, which saw 12.0% growth in the over the last 12 months, but along with Automotive Dealers and Aftermarket Parts and Repair, underperformed relative to the S&P index for the first quarter of 2018, which is down 2.0% since January 20186. The Aftermarket Parts and Repair continued its recent trajectory, declining 7.9% over the last 12 months and 6.4% over the quarter6. This decline in Aftermarket Parts equity performance is due in part to online retailers gaining market share28 as well as recent attempts by OEMs to integrate aftermarket services into their offering29; however, some industry analysts believe that the increased market share of foreign vehicles is also to blame, as consumers are more likely to visit the dealership for service on foreign vehicles, rather than automotive repair shops28. LTM Equity Market Performance Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018; represents most actively traded public automotive sector companies 8.3% 18.7% (7.9%) 12.0% 18.2% YTD Equity Market Performance -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 (3.5)% (6.4)% (4.3%) (2.0)% (2.4)%
  • 22. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 22 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings; represents most actively traded public automotive companies EBITDA and Enterprise Value adjusted for pension liabilities; Enterprise Value adjusted for noncontrolling interests, equity investments and financial services segments For definitions, see page 24. Public Companies’ Trading Statistics ($ in millions) 3/31/18 % of % Change Enterprise Value as a Multiple of Stock Price as a Multiple of LTM Stock 52 Wk from Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA LTM 2018 EBITDA Revenue Company Price High 12/31/17 Capitalization Value LTM 2018E 2019E LTM 2018E 2019E EPS EPS Margin Growth Automotive OEMs North American OEMs Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. $20.33 81.7% 30.1% $31,505 $36,048 0.26x 0.25x 0.25x 2.5x 2.0x 1.9x 6.8x 5.0x 10.7% (0.1)% Ford Motor Company $11.08 82.2% (7.5)% $44,244 $22,287 0.15x 0.15x 0.15x 2.3x 1.9x 1.9x 11.9x 7.2x 6.5% 2.9% General Motors Company $36.34 77.7% 4.2% $50,895 $43,690 0.33x 0.30x 0.30x 2.2x 2.6x 2.5x NM 5.7x 14.6% (4.5)% Tesla, Inc. $266.13 68.3% (10.7)% $44,955 $56,845 4.83x 2.91x 2.14x NM NM 16.0x NA NM 0.3% NM Asian OEMs Faw Car Co., Ltd. $1.63 67.5% (17.4)% $2,646 $2,233 0.51x 0.46x 0.45x 12.0x 7.7x 7.4x NA 26.2x 4.2% 22.3% Geely Automobile Holdings Limited $2.88 75.8% (17.9)% $25,839 $23,291 1.58x 1.24x 1.03x 12.5x 8.3x 6.7x 16.2x 12.0x 12.6% 72.7% Honda Motor Co., Ltd. $34.46 88.2% (10.7)% $61,282 $43,524 0.35x 0.30x 0.29x 2.9x 3.4x 3.1x NA 8.9x 12.1% 8.4% Hyundai Motor Company $135.18 82.9% (10.9)% $27,991 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NA 8.3x 10.2% 1.7% Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. $10.39 92.2% (3.8)% $40,648 $24,607 0.24x 0.22x 0.21x 3.3x 2.4x 2.3x NA 7.4x 7.2% 2.9% SAIC Motor Corporation Limited $5.42 90.3% 13.1% $63,341 $52,286 0.38x 0.35x 0.33x 9.7x 7.1x 6.5x 11.7x 10.4x 3.9% 15.0% Suzuki Motor Corporation $53.95 84.1% (4.2)% $23,806 $21,083 0.61x 0.58x 0.55x 4.0x 4.0x 3.7x 10.2x 11.4x 15.4% 18.4% Tata Motors Limited $5.03 67.2% (34.4)% $15,966 $21,205 0.52x 0.42x 0.38x 4.7x 3.1x 2.7x NA 7.7x 11.0% (4.1)% Toyota Motor Corporation $64.26 87.4% (4.0)% $186,989 $102,813 0.40x 0.37x 0.36x 3.0x 3.3x 3.2x 9.6x 9.3x 13.4% 7.8% European OEMs Bayerische Motoren Werke AG $108.41 90.7% (2.1)% $70,482 $95,924 1.09x 0.77x 0.74x 7.1x 5.2x 4.9x 9.3x 7.7x 15.4% 3.8% Daimler AG $84.97 90.2% (12.9)% $90,904 $52,461 0.30x 0.25x 0.24x 2.8x 2.1x 2.0x 8.8x 7.3x 11.0% 6.0% Peugeot S.A. $24.09 93.0% 17.6% $21,520 $19,219 0.24x 0.20x 0.20x 3.0x 2.3x 2.1x 9.2x 7.9x 8.1% 21.1% Renault SA $121.35 97.7% (1.5)% $32,590 $2,750 NM NM NM NM NM NM 6.7x 6.2x 8.8% 14.8% Volkswagen AG $198.82 83.9% (3.3)% $100,328 $38,846 0.16x 0.13x 0.13x 1.4x 0.8x 0.8x 7.1x 6.0x 11.8% 5.9% Median 84.0% (4.1)% 0.37x 0.33x 0.32x 3.0x 3.1x 2.9x 9.3x 7.7x 10.8% 6.0% Mean 83.4% (4.2)% 0.75x 0.56x 0.48x 4.9x 3.7x 4.2x 9.8x 9.1x 9.9% 11.5%
  • 23. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 23 Public Companies’ Trading Statistics Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings; represents most actively traded public automotive suppliers For definitions, see page 24. ($ in millions) 3/31/18 % of % Change Enterprise Value as a Multiple of Stock Price as a Multiple of LTM Stock 52 Wk from Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA LTM 2018 EBITDA Revenue Company Price High 12/31/17 Capitalization Value LTM 2018E 2019E LTM 2018E 2019E EPS EPS Margin Growth Automotive Suppliers Adient plc $59.76 69.2% (32.4)% $5,579 $7,116 0.43x 0.42x 0.41x 6.6x 5.0x 4.3x 8.5x 7.9x 6.5% (1.2)% Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd. $54.42 84.5% (13.4)% $14,730 $19,624 0.54x 0.52x 0.49x 4.6x 4.1x 3.8x 12.9x 10.7x 11.9% 11.4% American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. $15.22 75.1% (7.1)% $1,699 $5,301 0.85x 0.76x 0.75x 5.1x 4.3x 4.3x 3.3x 4.3x 16.7% 58.7% Aptiv PLC $84.97 80.9% 14.9% $22,572 $25,252 1.96x 1.82x 1.71x 12.1x 10.7x 9.9x 20.6x 16.5x 16.2% 5.0% Autoliv, Inc. $145.94 95.7% 16.4% $12,710 $13,116 1.26x 1.14x 1.06x 10.3x 8.9x 7.8x 22.0x 19.1x 12.3% 3.1% BorgWarner Inc. $50.23 86.3% (4.5)% $10,586 $12,099 1.23x 1.13x 1.07x 7.4x 6.7x 6.3x 21.0x 11.5x 16.6% 8.0% Continental AG $274.73 86.9% (3.3)% $54,948 $57,709 1.06x 1.01x 0.96x 7.7x 6.4x 6.0x 14.4x 12.9x 13.8% 8.5% Cooper-Standard Holdings Inc. $122.81 91.0% 1.4% $2,200 $2,471 0.68x 0.69x 0.68x 5.5x 5.3x 5.0x 13.7x 10.7x 12.3% 4.2% Dana Incorporated $25.76 73.0% (30.3)% $3,747 $5,065 0.70x 0.65x 0.62x 6.4x 5.3x 4.9x 28.5x 8.8x 10.9% 23.7% DENSO Corporation $54.80 80.6% (21.8)% $42,729 $40,228 0.87x 0.85x 0.79x 6.4x 6.4x 5.9x 14.2x 14.4x 13.5% 10.1% Faurecia S.A. $80.97 88.2% 11.3% $11,110 $11,828 0.48x 0.53x 0.50x 6.0x 4.7x 4.3x 13.2x 12.4x 7.9% 7.9% Lear Corporation $186.09 91.9% 12.1% $12,453 $13,165 0.64x 0.61x 0.58x 6.3x 5.8x 5.5x 9.6x 9.6x 10.3% 10.3% Magna International Inc. $56.28 96.9% 16.7% $20,169 $21,593 0.55x 0.53x 0.51x 5.2x 5.0x 4.7x 9.4x 8.3x 10.7% 6.9% Schaeffler AG $15.42 74.8% (12.6)% $10,269 $13,275 0.77x 0.74x 0.71x 4.7x 4.4x 4.2x 8.1x 8.2x 16.5% 5.1% The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company $26.58 72.3% (24.4)% $6,392 $11,325 0.74x 0.71x 0.69x 5.3x 4.7x 4.2x 15.7x 7.1x 13.9% 1.4% Valeo SA $66.08 79.1% (12.8)% $15,723 $18,460 0.81x 0.75x 0.68x 7.3x 5.7x 5.1x 13.8x 12.7x 11.1% 12.3% Visteon Corporation $110.24 78.4% (0.1)% $3,409 $3,179 1.01x 0.98x 0.92x 10.8x 8.4x 7.6x 24.5x 16.6x 9.3% (0.5)% Median 80.9% (4.5)% 0.77x 0.74x 0.69x 6.4x 5.3x 5.0x 13.8x 10.7x 12.3% 7.9% Mean 82.6% (5.3)% 0.86x 0.81x 0.77x 6.9x 6.0x 5.5x 14.9x 11.3x 12.4% 10.3%
  • 24. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 24 Public Companies’ Trading Statistics Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings; represents most actively traded public automotive dealers EBITDA and Enterprise Value adjusted for floor plan debt and interest expense For definitions, see page 24. ($ in millions) 3/31/18 % of % Change Enterprise Value as a Multiple of Stock Price as a Multiple of LTM Stock 52 Wk from Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA LTM 2018 EBITDA Revenue Company Price High 12/31/17 Capitalization Value LTM 2018E 2019E LTM 2018E 2019E EPS EPS Margin Growth Automotive Dealers Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. $67.50 88.4% 8.7% $1,412 $2,370 0.37x 0.36x 0.36x 7.7x 7.2x 7.0x 10.9x 8.9x 4.7% (1.1)% AutoNation, Inc. $46.78 75.4% (11.0)% $4,296 $6,930 0.32x 0.32x 0.32x 8.1x 7.2x 7.1x 13.8x 9.6x 4.0% (0.3)% CarMax, Inc. $61.94 79.8% 7.5% $11,202 $24,179 1.35x 1.33x 1.25x 18.0x 17.7x 16.8x 16.6x 13.6x 7.5% 10.1% Group 1 Automotive, Inc. $65.34 77.4% (1.0)% $1,320 $2,698 0.24x 0.24x 0.24x 7.2x 7.3x 7.3x 7.4x 7.7x 3.4% 2.2% Lithia Motors, Inc. $100.52 78.5% (13.9)% $2,515 $3,505 0.35x 0.28x 0.28x 8.1x 7.2x 6.7x 11.8x 9.5x 4.3% 16.2% Penske Automotive Group, Inc. $44.33 80.8% 0.6% $3,767 $4,661 0.22x 0.21x 0.21x 7.2x 5.9x 5.8x NA 8.7x 3.0% 6.3% Sonic Automotive, Inc. $18.95 83.3% 15.4% $804 $1,822 0.18x 0.18x 0.18x 6.4x 6.3x 6.1x 9.3x 8.4x 2.9% 1.4% Median 79.8% 0.6% 0.32x 0.28x 0.28x 7.7x 7.2x 7.0x 11.3x 8.9x 4.0% 2.2% Mean 80.5% 0.9% 0.43x 0.42x 0.40x 9.0x 8.4x 8.1x 11.6x 9.5x 4.2% 5.0%
  • 25. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 25 Public Companies’ Trading Statistics Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings Represents most actively traded public automotive aftermarket companies Definitions EBITDA: Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization Enterprise Value: Market Capitalization + Total Debt + Preferred Equity + Minority Interest – Cash and Short-Term Investments LTM: Last Twelve Months EPS: Earnings Per Share ($ in millions) 3/31/18 % of % Change Enterprise Value as a Multiple of Stock Price as a Multiple of LTM Stock 52 Wk from Market Enterprise Revenue EBITDA LTM 2018 EBITDA Revenue Company Price High 12/31/17 Capitalization Value LTM 2018E 2019E LTM 2018E 2019E EPS EPS Margin Growth Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair Advance Auto Parts, Inc. $118.55 78.1% 29.0% $8,770 $9,268 0.99x 0.99x 0.97x 10.2x 9.7x 9.0x 15.8x 17.7x 9.7% (2.0)% AutoZone, Inc. $648.69 81.3% (8.7)% $17,450 $22,173 1.99x 1.95x 1.89x 9.3x 9.0x 8.8x 12.4x 13.3x 21.5% 3.6% Monro, Inc. $53.60 83.6% (1.5)% $1,758 $2,149 1.96x 1.81x 1.66x 12.7x 11.3x 10.3x 30.4x 20.6x 15.5% 9.6% O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. $247.38 88.6% 12.0% $20,607 $23,539 2.62x 2.48x 2.35x 12.0x 11.5x 10.9x 19.6x 16.0x 21.8% 4.5% Median 82.4% 5.3% 1.98x 1.88x 1.77x 11.1x 10.5x 9.7x 17.7x 16.9x 18.5% 4.0% Mean 82.9% 7.7% 1.89x 1.81x 1.72x 11.0x 10.4x 9.7x 19.5x 16.9x 17.1% 3.9%
  • 26. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 26 6.5x 9.7x 11.6x 7.2x 9.7x 13.2x 6.9x 9.4x 13.0x 6.5x 9.5x 11.9x 7.3x 9.5x 11.0x 6.9x 9.0x 11.0x 0.0x 4.0x 8.0x 12.0x 16.0x Automotive Suppliers Automotive Dealers Automotive Aftermarket FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 LTM 15.9x 14.9x 13.0x 10.7x 11.1x 9.8x 0.0x 4.0x 8.0x 12.0x 16.0x 20.0x Automotive OEMs FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 LTM 5-Year Mean: 9.5x 5-Year Mean: 13.1x 5-Year Mean: 12.1x 5-Year Mean: 6.9x Multiples have been adjusted historically to reflect corresponding adjustments made on pages 21-24 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings Historical Trading Multiples Historical EBITDA Multiples Since 2013 On average, Automotive OEMs are trading at 9.8x LTM EPS, more than 3.0x lower than their 5- year average price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple. Automotive Suppliers (6.9x) are on average trading at EBITDA multiples right in line with their 5-year average, while Automotive Dealers (9.0x) are approximately 0.5x lower than their 5-year average. The Automotive Aftermarket index is currently trading at a lower EBITDA multiple relative to their 5-year average, and their LTM average of 11.0x, while in line with their 2017 multiple, is lower than four of the last five fiscal year end average EBITDA multiples6. Historical P/E Multiples Since 2013 Multiples have been adjusted historically to reflect corresponding adjustments made on pages 21-24 Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence as of March 31, 2018 and company filings
  • 27. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 27 M&A Activity by Quarter Note: All transactions with available target financial Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence M&A activity in the automotive sector decreased in Q1 2018 over the fourth quarter of 2017, with 11 completed transactions. With a total of 71 transactions for the last twelve months, M&A activity is weak compared to recent years. In 2017, 2016 and 2015, 80, 113 and 122 transactions, respectively, were closed in the automotive sector. Activity has been low since it dropped after Q1 2016, when 38 transactions were completed6. Automotive Industry M&A Trends 27 29 34 38 22 26 27 20 25 23 12 11 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1
  • 28. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 28 Notable M&A Activity – Last 12 Months Automotive Suppliers Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence and company filings Selected M&A Transaction Analysis ($ in millions) Announced Target Name Target Business Description Acquirer Name Enterprise Value LTM Revenue LTM EBITDA EBITDA Margin EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Mar-18 Driveline Business of GKN Plc Comprises automotive driveline systems, solutions, and off- highway powertrain businesses Dana Incorporated $6,169.8 $7,687.2 $837.0 10.9% 0.80x 7.4x Feb-18 DVS Industries Private Limited Manufactures crankshafts for commercial, agriculture, and off-highway vehicles MM Forgings Limited $0.7 $2.1 NM NA 0.34x NA Dec-17 Uni-Bond Brake, LLC Manufactures brake components for automotive and heavy- duty applications Amanda Products, LLC $3.0 $13.0 NM NA 0.23x NA Nov-17 AA Gaskets Pty Ltd Designs, manufactures and supplies gaskets and sealing products for automotive markets and manufacturing industries GUD Holdings Limited $22.9 $12.8 NM NA 1.78x NA Oct-17 CAP Corporation Develops, manufactures and sells wiper blades wiper arms and related auto parts in South Korea NPD Co., Ltd.; SG2017 Private Equity Fund $70.1 $79.5 $11.5 14.5% 0.88x 6.1x Sep-17 STARCO Europe A/S Manufactures and distributes wheel and tire solutions for OEMs worldwide Kenda Rubber Industrial Co. Ltd. $21.2 $129.4 NM NA 0.16x NA Sep-17 IMC S.r.l. Manufactures automotive parts Mittel S.p.A $71.6 $47.8 NM NA 1.50x NA Aug-17 NEUE HALBERG-GUSS GmbH Manufactures engine blocks, cam shafts and cylinder heads S.D.L Süddeutsche Beteiligungs GmbH $16.4 $483.4 NM NA 0.03x NA Jul-17 METALLARTE srl. Manufactures entry and compartment doors for manufacturers of leisure vehicles Lippert Components, Inc. $16.7 $12.5 NM NA 1.34x NA Jun-17 Pacific Insight Electronics Corp. Together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures and sells electronic products and full-service solutions Methode Electronics, Inc. $104.4 $92.7 $10.8 11.6% 1.13x 9.7x Jun-17 Groeneveld Groep B.V. Engages in the development, production, marketing and sale of automatic greasing systems and effective safety systems for various vehicles and equipment The Timken Company $280.0 $105.0 NM NA 2.67x NA Jun-17 Nexen Tech Corporation Provides wiring harnesses for the automobile industry in South Korea Route One Fund $65.5 $69.5 $5.8 8.3% 0.94x 11.3x
  • 29. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 29 Notable M&A Activity – Last 12 Months Automotive Suppliers Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence and company filings Selected M&A Transaction Analysis ($ in millions) Announced Target Name Target Business Description Acquirer Name Enterprise Value LTM Revenue LTM EBITDA EBITDA Margin EV / Revenue EV / EBITDA Jun-17 United Welding Services Inc. Manufactures truck accessories CURT Manufacturing, LLC $21.5 $35.3 NM NA 0.61x NA May-17 Yixing Prince Ceramics Co., Ltd. Researches, produces and trades honeycomb ceramics for customers in China and internationally Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co., Ltd. $99.7 $18.9 NM NA 5.27x NA Apr-17 Velvac Inc. Designs, manufactures and supplies mirrors, parts and components to truck equipment and recreational (RV) aftermarkets, as well as heavy truck, RV and specialty vehicle OEMs The Eastern Company $39.5 $58.7 NM NA 0.67x NA Mean $466.9 $589.9 $216.3 11.3% 1.22x 8.6x Median $39.5 $53.3 $3.0 10.9% 1.03x 8.5x
  • 30. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 30 Duff & Phelps’ Ongoing and Recent Transactions Valuation opinion to determine fair market value of securities owned by the GM UAW Retiree Medical Benefits Trust ERISA Advisory Fairness Opinion has been acquired by Takata Europe GmbH has completed the sale of certain assets and liabilities to Key Safety Systems, Inc. Financial Advisor has been acquired by Sell Side Advisor Sell Side Advisor has been acquired by Solvency Opinion has completed the spin-off of Sell Side Advisor has been acquired by BMW Group and Daimler AG combined their mobility services in an equally-owned joint venture Financial Advisor Independent financial advisor to BMW Group and Daimler AG in connection with the transaction
  • 31. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 31 Sources 1. “Global Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data. 2. “U.S. Light Vehicle Sales.” WardsAuto Public Data. 3. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). 4. China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. 5. “Passenger Car Registrations: +5.8% first two months of 2018; +4.3% in February.” European Automobile Manufacturers Association. March 15, 2018. 6. S&P Global Market Intelligence. 7. “Global Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 – Final Results.” EVVolumes.com. 8. “Trump Administration May Eliminate Increases in Fuel Economy.” The Wall Street Journal. April 27, 2018. 9. “California Sues Trump Administration Over Vehicle Emissions.” The Wall Street Journal. May 1, 2018. 10. “USA Plug-in Vehicle Sales for 2017 Q4 and Full Year.” EVVolumes.com. 11. “Carmakers Get Their Wish on Fuel Efficiency Standards.” The Wall Street Journal. April 3, 2018. 12. “Consumers and Auto Sales.” Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers. 13. “EPA Tentatively Decides to Ease Vehicle Emission Standards.” The Wall Street Journal. March 23, 2018. 14. “Europe Plug-in Vehicle Sales for Q4 and 2017 Full Year.” EVVolumes.com. 15. “Germany Plug-in Vehicle Sales 2017 Q3 and YTD.” EVVolumes.com. 16. “Volkswagen Plans Increase Electric Vehicle Production, Sales in U.S. in 2020.” Automotive News. September 14, 2017. 17. “China Plug-in Sales for 2017-Q4 and Full Year – Update.” EV-Volumes. 18. “China Light Vehicle Sales Update.” LMC Automotive Public Data. 19. The Conference Board. 20. “Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit 2018:Q1.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Research and Statistics Group. February 2018. 21. U.S. Energy Information Administration. 22. Dave Mead and Porscha Stiger, “The 2014 plunge in import petroleum prices: What happened?” Beyond the Numbers: Global Economy, vol. 4, no. 9. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 2015. 23. “North American Light Vehicle Production” WardsAuto Public Data. 24. Keith Naughton, Jamie Butters, David Welch, Tommasco Ebhardt. “American automakers scrap cars, ceding market to foreign makers.” Chicago Tribune. January 23, 2018. 25. Paul Lienert, Norihiko Shirouzu. “U.S.-China trade war could hit German automakers, plus Tesla, Ford.” Reuters. April 4, 2018. 26. Ian Thibodeau. “Only Mustang, Focus crossover to survive Ford car cuts.” The Detroit News. April 25, 2018. 27. Chester Dawson and Robert Wall. “Auto Makers Weigh In on China’s Tariff Retaliation Threat.” The Wall Street Journal. April 4, 2018. 28. “Report Details How Amazon is Disrupting the Automotive Aftermarket.” Ratchet+Wrench. September 8, 2017. 29. “Global aftermarket demand to grow by 4.4% in 2018: Frost & Sullivan.” Economic Times: Auto. April 27, 2018. 30. Anna Hirtenstein. “Electric Vehicles on the Road Are Set to Triple in Two Years.” Bloomberg. May 30, 2018. 31. “Global EV Outlook 2018.” International Energy Agency. May 30, 2018. 32. David Shepardson, Mike Stone. “Trump threatens to tax European auto imports.” Reuters. March 3, 2018.
  • 32. Industry Insights: Automotive – Summer 2018 32 Contact Us Copyright © 2018 Duff & Phelps LLC. All rights reserved. Ross Fletcher Managing Director +1 416 361 2588 ross.fletcher@duffandphelps.com Howard Johnson Managing Director +1 416 597 4500 howard.johnson@duffandphelps.com Toronto Contacts Mark Kwilosz Head of North American Auto +1 312 697 4677 mark.kwilosz@duffandphelps.com Steve Burt Global Head of M&A +1 312 697 4620 steve.burt@duffandphelps.com David Althoff Global Head of Diversified Industrials M&A +1 312 697 4625 david.althoff@duffandphelps.com Chicago Contacts Silicon Valley Contact Matt Sachse Managing Director +1 650 354 4018 msachse@pmib.com Andreas Stoecklin Country Head of Germany +49 (0)8938 888 4120 andreas.stoecklin@duffandphelps.com Klaus Pflum Senior Advisor +49 (0)8938 888 4110 klaus.pflum@duffandphelps.com Paul Teuten Managing Director +44 (0) 20 7089 4840 paul.teuten@duffandphelps.com European Contacts David Lu Managing Director +86 21 60320608 david.lu@duffandphelps.com Andy Watanabe Managing Director +81 3 35930150 atsuo.watanabe@duffandphelps.com Asian Contacts About Duff & Phelps Duff & Phelps is the global advisor that protects, restores and maximizes value for clients in the areas of valuation, corporate finance, investigations, disputes, cyber security, compliance and regulatory matters, and other governance-related issues. We work with clients across diverse sectors, mitigating risk to assets, operations and people. With Kroll, a division of Duff & Phelps since 2018, our firm has nearly 3,500 professionals in 28 countries around the world. For more information, visit www.duffandphelps.com. M&A advisory, capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United States are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC. Member FINRA/SIPC. Pagemill Partners is a Division of Duff & Phelps Securities, LLC. M&A advisory, capital raising and secondary market advisory services in the United Kingdom are provided by Duff & Phelps Securities Ltd. (DPSL), which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. M&A advisory and capital raising services in Germany are provided by Duff & Phelps GmbH, which is a Tied Agent of DPSL. Valuation Advisory Services in India are provided by Duff & Phelps India Private Limited under a category 1 merchant banker license issued by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. For more information please visit: www.duffandphelps.com