Ascent look out telecom media & technology 2014

look out
Trends 2014+

Telecoms,

media
& technology

At Atos we strive to create the
firm of the future. We believe
that bringing together people,
technology and business is the way
forward.
Every day we power sustainable
progress for our clients and
partners, the wider community and
ourselves. It is our unique approach
as Business Technologists that
makes this possible.

Contents
Editorial
``
Welcome to Ascent Look Out..........................................................................................................................................................5
``
Foreword....................................................................................................................................................................................................................7
Introduction
``
View from the Atos Telecoms, Media & Technology Global Market Leader...........................11
``
Helping you to stay one step ahead......................................................................................................................................12
``
Why do innovation enthusiasts endorse Ascent Look Out?.....................................................................13
Focus On
``
Business Mobility.......................................................................................................................................................................................... 18
Innovation Radars
``
2014+ SEP Innovation Radar: Socio-Cultural...............................................................................................................28
``
2014+ SEP Innovation Radar: Economic......................................................................................................................... 30
``
2014+ SEP Innovation Radar: Political.................................................................................................................................34
``
2014+ CxO Agenda Radar.................................................................................................................................................................36
``
2014+ Enabling Information Technologies Radar................................................................................................40
Telecoms, Media & Technology Market View
``
Telecoms Business Imperatives.................................................................................................................................................48
``
Telecoms Business Trends.................................................................................................................................................................51
``
Telecoms Business Impact of Emerging Technologies and Solutions........................................56
``
Media Business Imperatives............................................................................................................................................................ 61
``
Media Business Trends.........................................................................................................................................................................63
``
Media Business Impact of Emerging Technologies and Solutions................................................. 66
Innovation Radars in Detail
``
2014+ SEP Innovation Radar in Detail: Socio-Cultural...................................................................................... 72
``
2014+ SEP Innovation Radar in Detail: Economic................................................................................................80
``
2014+ SEP Innovation Radar in Detail: Political.......................................................................................................90
``
2014+ CxO Agenda in Detail....................................................................................................................................................... 100
``
2014+ Enabling Information Technologies Radar in Detail..................................................................... 1114
Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................................................................138

Ascent Look Out - Telecoms, Media & Technology

3

4


Welcome to
Ascent Look Out

©Marc BERTRAND/CHALLENGES-REA

Welcome to Ascent Look Out. I am very proud to share this fifth
edition with you and hope you find our broad analysis of emerging
trends and technologies an interesting and stimulating read.
We created Ascent Look Out with one clear goal in mind: to arouse
the novel ideas that will drive innovation for you, our clients and our
partners, in 2014 and beyond. After all, there has never been a better
time to see how emerging global business and technological trends
can power progress.
As Business Technologists we want to ignite your imagination, sparked
by the vision we deliver through our commitment to innovation.
Innovation is part of our DNA — you will find it everywhere. We are
very clear about what it truly means and how we can help our clients
ensure it becomes part of their own company DNA too.

Our Ascent initiatives, which include Ascent Look Out, are designed to share innovation and thought
leadership with our partners and clients. Ascent Look Out provides a bird’s eye view of the trends that
will shape our world in 2014 and beyond, delivered by our market and technology experts across the
globe.
Its breadth of vision spans over 800 trends across 20 market sectors. We can guarantee that within
Ascent Look Out you will discover something new that will open the door to new opportunities.
We hope you enjoy reading Ascent Look Out; we have enjoyed putting it together. As a thought
provoking read, we are sure it will bring you a great deal of value.

Thierry Breton
Atos, Chairman and CEO


5

6


Foreword
Welcome to the fifth edition of Ascent Look Out, our key yearly
publication covering significant trends in business and technology
innovation.
The economic crisis that started in 2007 continued to develop its
effects in many countries during 2013, reduction of public deficits
and debts is still at the top of political agendas, while forgotten
tensions among geopolitical blocks are reemerging.
But it’s not all doom and gloom: new technology is enabling better
informed decision-making while increasing efficiency, supported by
the digital natives who have come of age and are using technology
to exploit the vast, and growing, volumes of data.
In our earlier editions of Ascent Look Out we examined Green IT, Open Innovation, Cloud
Computing and the birth of Social Organization in depth.
In this 2014 edition of Ascent Look Out, our ‘Focus On’ section is devoted to Business Mobility
where we are already seeing early adopters gain competitive advantage from the many potential
opportunities it offers. From a business and technology stand-point, the human being is about to
become truly ubiquitous, a truly god-like power that corporate organizations must now learn how
to channel and leverage. This decisive change has the potential—as you are about to read—to
significantly redefine our experiences as customers, as citizens and as employees.
Other highlights include: our overview of the latest Sociocultural, Economic and Political trends
and opportunities, along with those already on the CxO agenda; in-depth expert analysis for each;
and a detailed reference guide tours market sectors detailing what we can expect to see from
them in the months—and years—ahead.
I sincerely hope you enjoy this issue and we look forward to hearing your views. Enjoy your read.

Gilles Grapinet
Atos, Senior Executive Vice President, Global Functions


7

8


Introduction


9

10


Introduction

View from the Atos
Telecoms, Media & Technology
Global Market Leader
There’s never been a better time to see how
technology’s possibilities can power progress
for your business, your clients, and the wider
society. At Atos, as Business Technologists, we
offer you this vision through this publication.
In previous issues of Ascent Look Out we
have reviewed at how organizations, with
vastly reduced budgets, needed to transform
to ensure a sustainable future business whilst
at the same time, improving current levels of
services.
But as always, we continue to look ahead
and see what kind of changes we will see in
today’s still volatile, ever more complex, world.
Consumers today are well-informed and better
connected than ever before. They will have
become used to tablets and smartphones.
After an initial phase of experimenting,
consumers are expanding their usages in
multimedia, payment, search, Smart Mobility
applications.
The voice market is shrinking, with the
broadband data market exploding. Telecoms
companies will suffer as their cash cow
disappears. To combat this, they need to
strengthen their intermediary role in the
digital value chain and ensure they are active
participants in new business models.


Media companies must also strengthen their
role in the digital value chain. They are no
longer the only gateway to digital content
with consumers looking for branded content
through search engines and their social
networks.
The challenges of monetizing communication
and content services vary across emerging,
evolving, and saturated markets. Emerging
markets are characterized by high demand
and promising growth potential, but small
customer wallets. On the opposite side,
saturated markets in developed geographies
feature extreme competition, high customer
expectations, and consumer-friendly
regulation.

Finally, with the growth of Cloud services,
mobile computing, and social media,
traditional security models will not suffice: a
focus on information security is imperative.
Ascent Look Out combines the knowledge
and insight from subject matter experts across
all corners of Atos. Our Business Technologists
across the world are ready to share our vision
to help you to take advantage of the evolution
of technologies and new opportunities we are
seeing in the telecoms and media markets.
Bruno Fabre
Executive Vice President
Telco, Media & Utilities
Atos

Telecoms and media companies need to
explore innovative revenue streams whilst
continuing to develop existing schemes.
But it’s a fast moving environment, and new
competitors will shake up the market and
force traditional companies to react. Being
able to quickly understand customer desires,
adapt current business models and swiftly
roll-out new services will be critical to ensure
survival. Business Intelligence, driven by the
vast amounts of information that Big Data can
provide, is of great value here.

11

Introduction

Helping you to stay
one step ahead
Ascent: thought leadership
program from Atos
Our Ascent initiatives ensure we deliver the
best and most advanced solutions to our
clients, helping them stay ahead of the game.
Designed for sharing thought leadership
with our partners and clients, these initiatives
highlight the importance we place on
research, development and innovation:
``
Ascent Look Out provides a bird’s eye
view of the trends that will shape our
world in 2013 and beyond. Market focused,
but delivered by both our market and
technology experts across the globe,
its breadth of vision—over 800 trends
across 20 market sectors—allows you to
identify trends that are likely to impact
your business in the coming years. Each
time you turn to Ascent Look Out you will
discover something new that will open the
door to great opportunities for you.
``
Ascent Journey 2016 provides an in-depth
analysis of the key technological trends
that will have a major impact on almost
every organization across the globe. It
shares the predictions and vision of our
Scientific Community, detailing how these
technologies will shape our and your
business through to 2016.
``
Ascent White Papers provide expert
insights, practical tips and a thorough
understanding of how organizations can
use technology to drive business growth
and achieve successful transformation.
Delivered by our Scientific Community,

12

they also identify the technologies which
we believe will be key tomorrow, answering
questions on how to leverage them for
current and future business needs.
``
Ascent Magazines provide inspirational,
forward-looking views on selected business
technology themes. The latest edition,
entitled “A vision of sports and technology”,
explores one specific area in which Atos is
proud to have a unique track record: sport.
It is now more than two decades since
we began working with the Olympic and
Paralympic Games. In the years since our
first Games, information technology has
moved from being a support function to an
integral part of the successful delivery of
any event.

Ascent in Action
A series of Ascent events have been
organized across several countries to allow
our top clients to meet thought leaders and
Atos experts. Through discovering more
about today’s key technology and business
trends—finding out what they are, what the
fuss is all about, what the benefits are, what is
really going to happen and what they need to
look out for—they will be able to approach the
future with confidence.

``
Scan the technology and business
landscape, stimulating and provoking
thinking on how you could best leverage
emerging technologies and trends. Adding
this new dimension to your insight will help
you develop innovation opportunities from
unexpected angles.
``
Gain insight into the future of your
industry and the potential impact on your
organization. See, share and discover the
trends in not only your own market, but
also adjoining markets, and learn about
the possible scenarios for your future. Only
through understanding the possibilities can
you prepare for every eventuality.
Our experts are always ready to work with you
to help drive new opportunities, overcome
upcoming challenges or simply to help raise
awareness. Whether you are looking to reduce
costs and improve efficiency, make full use of
social media or understand the opportunities
and pitfalls of Business Mobility, do not
hesitate to get in touch.

Built on Ascent Journey 2016 and Ascent
Look Out, the more operational and intimate
Atos Innovation Workshops help key players
within your organization drive innovation in
your business. Attending an Atos Innovation
Workshop will allow you to:


Why do innovation
enthusiasts endorse
Ascent Look Out?
“Organizations face a bewildering
number of trends and technologies.
It is almost impossible to keep an
overview and to set priorities among
them. If there is one publication that
helps you do just that, it is Atos’ Ascent
Look Out.
Atos’ approach and expert knowledge
helps you to navigate the dynamics
of the business environment in an
insightful way, without denying the
complexity of today’s economy. I
have worked with Ascent Look Out
before and I always found the results
illuminating.”
Ard-Pieter de Man
Professor of Knowledge Networks and
Innovation, VU University Amsterdam; Dean
at Sioo, Centre for Organization Studies and
Change Management
The Netherlands

“If innovation and sustainability are
among your top business priorities,
Ascent Look Out is the right tool for
you. Every chapter provides you with
a complete description of the trends
that will shape the future, covering all
relevant dimensions. Deusto Business
School is proud to use the Atos Ascent
Look Out information during our
executive masters, especially within
our Master in Business Innovation
(MBI) where our executive students
are learning and experimenting with
how to use insights and long-term
foresight to assess potential futures.
This is crucial for preparing us and
our organizations for the challenges
and opportunities ahead.”
Dr Manuel Escudero
Managing Director of Deusto Business School
Spain

“We live in an ever-changing world:
the economy, politics, society, young
people, customers, brands—and
more—are all shifting. At the same
time new technologies and trends are
popping up, seemingly from nowhere,
and all at a speed never encountered
before.
Ascent Look Out from Atos is an
astute thought leadership tool. Not
only will it help you understand this
process of change, it will draw your
attention to the significant social,
political and economic trends out
on all our horizons. By acting as a
compass, it will help you navigate the
many possible scenarios, showing
you how to use the new technologies
already used across some industries
today.”
Eduardo Sicilia
Director Executive MBA
EOI Business School
Spain


13

“Today, a growth of new technologies
together with an increase in internet
services is exposing companies and
banks to more challenging issues than
ever before:
``
How do you match customer
expectations in terms of timeto-market, access, simplicity,
availability, speed, accuracy and of
course security?
``
How do you take part and maintain
a good position in the new global
ecosystem as it transforms?
``
What sustainable and profitable
approach should you take?
Ascent Look Out is one of simplest
and most efficient digests. Taking all
pieces of the puzzle into account, it
has helped us find our way by giving a
clear understanding of the emerging
trends.”
Olivier Vandenbilcke
Head of Benchmark and Innovation
BNP Paribas
France

“The ever increasing pace of change
in the current global context requires
us to embrace increasing levels
of complexity, increasing levels
of uncertainty, and increasing
difficulties of predicting the future
by extrapolating from the past. In
such times insight based on foresight
is ever more important. We need
individuals and organizations that
help us make sense of the things to
come, and provide us with pointers
that will help us navigate our future.
Atos’ series ‘Ascent Look Out’ is full of
such important pointers.”

“There is quite a bit of material
published nowadays about trends
and where particular industries are
supposedly heading. Ascent Look
Out briefing pack is among the best.
There is a rigor behind thinking,
which I think is missing in many other
publications, and the way that the
material is laid out is also engaging.”

Dr Bettina von Stamm
Director & Catalyst
Innovation Leadership Forum
www.innovationleadershipforum.org
www.innovationwave.com
http://thefutureofinnovation.org

“The Ascent Look Out trends
report summarizes technology
and market developments well
and is helpful for illustrating the
drivers of innovation and emerging
technologies in the global markets to
students. In particular, the innovation
and technology radars effectively
visualize possible future trends and
offer some food for thoughts for
students and researchers.”

Richard Watson
CEO and Founder of the What’s Next Trends
Report
www.nowandnext.com
United Kingdom

Marko Seppänen, Associate Professor
Director of Center for Innovation and
Technology Research Tampere
University of Technology
Finland

14


“In the new era of innovation, which
I call “Open Innovation 2.0”, we see
ad-hoc interactions and frictionless
processes, creating innovation
that cannot be planned—only
the probability of breakthroughs
increased. This era we are driving
rapidly towards is characterized by,
for example, stronger user-driver
innovation in quadruple helix
innovation where public sector,
industry, research and the users
together shape the direction and
outcome.
As we move towards Open Data,
platforms and processes as
the oil for new innovation and
the experimentation and rapid
prototyping in real world settings
are essential to achieving fast results
(be they success or failure), and thus
creating scalable and multipliable
results sooner. Simultaneous
technology and societal innovation
will stretch the boundaries and create
the new winners.

“Having been deeply involved in
innovation management for several
years now, both in operative business
as well as in education, I can tell that
Ascent Look Out is a great example of
how to deal with the very important
front-loading of your innovation
pipeline. It covers all important angles:
from social, economic and political
macro trends to a detailed description
and assessment of technological
trends. The adaptation to vertical
industries is very helpful; it considers
the relevance of the trends to specific
sectors. This input is a very valuable
starting point for your innovation
roadmap: take it, digest it and draw
the right conclusions for your own
business.”

“A valuable solution to successfully
address the challenges of an everchanging scene. Ascent Look Out is
the result of a new way of working,
combining the knowledge and insight
from Atos’ communities to yield a
truly collaborative global initiative.
The result is an engaging deliverable
with brilliant contents and clear
pictorial views. It presents trends that
will drive innovation and emerging
technologies that will transform life,
business and the global markets.”
Roberto Mariscal
Head of Innovation Projects Promotion at
Iberdrola
www.iberdrola.es
Spain

Harald Müller
Director Strategic Projects
Siemens AG, Smart Grid Division
Germany

Exploring insights, combining them
and daring to create new, I am
delighted to see this very perspective
within the Ascent Look Out series of
publications.”
Bror Salmelin
Advisor, Innovation Systems,
DG Communications Networks,
Media and Technology
European Commission
Belgium


15

16


Focus On


17

Focus On

Business Mobility
Business Mobility is a
game changer, but requires
evolution in organization
and IT systems
What is it?
Mobility is not simply another chapter in the
smaller, faster, cheaper device story—and it is
definitely not about tiny websites or screenscraped PC applications. Instead, mobility
is the catalyst for a much broader shift in
systems of engagement.
Business Mobility is about empowerment—it
is about empowering consumers, employees,
partners, patients, students and citizens in
the context of where they are and what they
are doing. To achieve this we must analyze
the context of these hundreds of thousands
of individuals in real time and marry this
information with cross-channel digital
intelligence. Only then can we proactively
deliver the right service, at the right time, at
the right place, to the right person on the right
channel.

Why the fuss?
Employees and consumers now have a direct
connection to your services in their pocket.
At the end of 2012, the world was counting
6.2 billion active mobile subscriptions and
1.1 billion smartphones had been sold, rising
to 10 billion by 2016 (source IDC)—that’s
approximately 1.4 devices per capita.

18

With such widespread adoption of mobile
devices, organizations cannot afford to ignore
mobile as a platform and the opportunities
that Business Mobility brings.

So, what opportunities does
Business Mobility bring?
Organizations have four main goals when it
comes to Business Mobility:
``
Enabling employees to be productive and
make key decisions anywhere and on any
device
``
Interacting with customers in their
moments of decision
``
Connecting all their assets and dynamically
reporting on status and usage
``
Enhancing collaboration with partners in
the context of their daily workflow
They typically split their mobility approach
in two streams—one for corporate users
(Enterprise Mobility) and another for
consumers (Mobility for Consumers or
Engagement Mobility)—as the ambitions,
challenges and platform are different in each.
With Enterprise Mobility, the primary goal
is to increase the productivity of employees
through providing them with the right
mobile services at the time they need them.
Examples include expenses management,
contextual CRM and field force management.
Of course, collaboration with partners is
important too, as is asset management—
though the importance of connecting assets
varies across industries, with sectors such as

manufacturing and transportation better able
to manage and maintain their assets.
With Mobility for Consumers, organizations
see Business Mobility as a game changer
that has the potential to transform business
models and product strategies. Delivering the
right services, to the right person in the right
way when this person wants really to engage
will transform interactions with consumers,
citizens, students and patients, providing an
opportunity for reinventing core processes and
generating new revenue. Examples include:
``
Automotive/oil and gas—Moving from a
product to a consumer-centric approach,
building loyalty with the consumer and
reselling customized services directly to the
driver in the car through the head unit or
his smartphone/tablet
``
Utilities—Enabling more dynamic pricing
by feeding into tariffs and responding to
economic demand through accessing
contextual consumption data every fifteen
minutes via the automated smart metering
infrastructure
``
Healthcare—Interacting with patients
outside of the hospital to provide integrated
preventive care at home, based on the
patient’s immediate context
``
Banking and insurance—Services based
on location could include provision of
information (such as local currency rates for
customers abroad) or enticing a customer
to come in and review their insurance
options when they are in the vicinity
``
Cities—Boosting mobile as the new primary
channel for communication between


Customers
Interaction

Business
MOBILITY

Partners
Collaboration

END-TO-END SOLUTIONING

Employees
Productivity

KEY VISION
Physical context plus digital intelligence,
not just online access
Proactive service, not just self-service
Business processes designed for engagement,
not just for services originally designed for PCs
JOIN MARKETING AND GO TO MARKET
KEY ORGANISATIONAL & PROCESS ELEMENTS

NEUTRAL BUSINESS PARNTER

6 BILLION
MOBILE
SUBSCRIPTIONS

Productivity
& Loyalty

New
Business
Models

PAYOFF:
PROFITABLE
GROWTH

Lowering
everybody’s
costs

NEXT GEN IT BLOCKS
Smart Products

Wired
Products

Figure 1. The Business Mobility Ecosystem.

citizen and local government, driving citizen
benefits around some of these services: live
traffic management, mobile parking services,
public transport information and more
``
Retail—Using mobility as a bridge between
the retailer’s store and the e-commerce web
site to provide a seamless and new innovative
shopping experience to the consumer


``
Telecoms—We will see a variety of new
context-enriched business mobility services
emerge in the market that can be delivered
by over-the-top (OTT) providers or by
telecoms operators themselves
``
Workforce—Boosting efficiency by
connecting infrastructure and workforce
for a true mobile experience; collaborating,

sharing and disseminating data and
information to any device, enabling
predictive maintenance
``
Office/home—Creating (mobile) automation
services to enable ambient intelligence and
energy-efficiency in homes and offices

19

What are the barriers to
adoption?
These goals are commonly shared by
organization. However, very few succeed in
transforming these into reality. The reasons?
Mobility invariably requires evolution across
other areas of the business—strategy,
organizational structures, business processes,
partner eco-systems and IT systems.
From a technical perspective, successful
mobile services also draw on social, cloud
and Big Data innovation, delivering apps and
smart products directly within a customer’s
own context. But today, most client IT systems
are not ready to handle the multitude of IT
challenges that Business Mobility presents:
the multichannel paradigm; the network,
technical and infrastructure agility required;
and also all the middleware, applications and
security models that need to be constructed
for contextual mobile services. Furthermore,
ideological conflicts amongst design and
development teams must be avoided.

Drawing on other technology
innovations
Big Data
Big Data has become the commonly used
term for the explosion in volume and variety
of electronic information that organizations
are exposed to, as their business processes
evolve to address the needs of our
increasingly connected world. There are a
number of new technological evolutions
that are driving the emergence of Big Data,
including new types of database, new
ways of processing data, new visualization
technologies, new analytical techniques—and
not to mention the vast amounts of data that
Business Mobility itself will generate.

20

Organizations that are able to harness and
make sense of these vast quantities of real
time contextual data from disparate sources
(sensors, social networks and corporate data,
for example) and about millions of individuals
will gain valuable insights. This will provide
them with opportunities for pushing the right
targeted mobile services, at the right moment,
to the right person, in response to changing
environments.
Furthermore, Big Data will enable
organizations to work with partners—
traditional and new—to monetize this
contextual information by extracting the
consumer’s path, optimizing existing services
and reselling this information.
Data is key to mobility, and Big Data will
enable organizations to handle it appropriately.

Cloud Computing
Time-to-market is a key factor in the race
for mobile solutions. But with mobile
devices evolving at an almost alarming rate,
organizations risk delays by having to focus
on complex and ever-changing cross-platform
considerations. Organizations want to be able
to simply focus on the underlying business
logic.
As such, a hosted platform delivered in
the Cloud provides the idea solution. By
combining a hybrid or a private cloud with
a Mobile expertise center, organizations can
quickly take advantage of the pre-configured,
ready-to-go environment. With expert
knowledge and best practice already applied,
they can focus on bespoke business logic
from day one. Organizations will be able to
take advantage of a full stack of enterprise
mobility solutions from controlling the
applications and mobile device deployment to
easing the creation of mobile applications.

Coupled with flexible and transparent pricing,
cloud’s pay-per-use model—with no upfront
development costs—lowers the entry barrier
into mobility solutions, and provides a move
from CAPEX to OPEX and a faster return on
investment.

Security and privacy
As mobility and Cloud Computing break down
the concept of defined physical location, a
new approach to dealing with IT security is
required. The increased portability of data
brings the increased risk of unintended
exposure, misuse and loss or alienation.
Because of the potentially transient nature of
the devices, applications and users that access
any given data, security mechanisms have
to be aligned to the data itself. Advances in
identity management (particularly biometrics)
and cryptography will enable the security
of data in each component of the system.
Security in such dynamic environments must
be built on the assumption that anyone or any
device may get access to the data, but that
only authorized users should be able to use it.
The explosion of user related data (both
personally created and contextually
generated) and how it is used is increasing
security and privacy challenges—especially
the tension between data exploitation, usage
rights and privacy. There is a fine balance
to maintain. Individuals, especially on the
consumer side, will need to understand that
a certain amount of personal data will need
to be provided in exchange for these new
valuable personalized services. On the other
side of the coin, service providers need to
ensure that the personal data delivered into
their care is treated with great care.


A closer look at Enterprise
Mobility
Mobility is at the core of many discussions
within the enterprise and there are some
really clear expectations:
``
CEOs want to smoothly extend the
company strategy to customers outside
of the point of sale and increase the
productivity of employees by providing
direct access to the information system
from anywhere. To stay competitive and
efficient, they want to ensure they have
all the tools needed to swiftly launch new
mobile services.

CONTROL

``
Business departments want to be able
to create new innovative and connected
mobile services quickly by focusing only
on business ideas and not technical
considerations.
`` IT department wants to provide a
The
secured and controlled platform, enabling
business departments to swiftly implement
and deploy new mobile services that are
interconnected with the information systems.
``
Finally, the purchasing department wants
to be able to purchase a top-class solution
from a single provider, paying only for what
is being used within a flexible model.

CONNECT

Manage and control the
deployment of mobile
devices within your
organization.

Provide your mobile
devices park with a
direct connection to
your entire existing
information system
(software apps,
databases, web services,
J2EE connectors, …)

There is a platform emerging that will
remove today’s barriers and reach today’s
expectations: the Mobile Enterprise
Application Platform. These platforms support
all enterprise mobility requirements, providing
a comprehensive, long-term approach
to deploying mobility by controlling the
deployment of mobile devices, enabling
simple, yet secure, integration of information
systems, and easing the creation and diffusion
of mobile applications.

CREATE

CONSUME

Create and test mobile
services by only
focusing on the
underlying business
logic without taking care
about any
cross-platform
considerations.

Control, automate and
monitor the deployment
of mobile applications
within the enterprise.

Provision

Decommission

Production

Connectors

SDK

Private
AppStore

Figure 2. The Mobile Enterprise Application Platform.


21

Mobility for consumers: the retail
industry as an example
Threatened by booming e-commerce,
physical stores have to change dramatically.
They have one main objective: to enhance the
shopping experience of the consumer based
on four main axes:

``
Improving the consumer/seller interaction
``
Leveraging the e-commerce offering inside
the store
``
Empowering consumers
``
Optimizing the checkout

Business Mobility is a true opportunity
for retailers. Harmonizing the mobile, the
physical store and the website brings a
simple solution across these four axes. By
bringing e-commerce services in-store and
strengthening store advantages, retailers can
enrich consumer experience before, during
and after store visits.

Oops... just a few minutes for my
train departure and I need a new
pair of earphones! I can make it!

Ok, let me check-in to connect
with the shop Wifi. I’m sure it will
take only a few minutes if I’m
able to use my app.

Looking for earphones... just at
the opposite side from where
I’m... as usual... let’s go!

So easy! Just tapping the label
I can get extended information!

Perfect, it’s the one I want. Sending
it to my basket and ready to checkout.

Tap in my loyalty password to
pay... as easy as iTunes!

Payment done! A ticket is also
generated for me. And I just need
to show it at the POS.

Everything went smoothly and
fast. Maybe less than a minute.
I think I’ve still got some time
for a coffee now.

Figure 3. Enhancing the Consumer’s Shopping Experience.

22


Furthermore, Business Mobility enables a
new hybrid digital distribution, designed for
connected (always-on) consumers. This brand
new end-to-end shopping experience—the
Digital Store—natively includes the physical

Consumers

store without interrupting the digital
experience of the consumer. Redesigned,
the traditional store is now a vital asset
for the retailer, bringing the elements that
e-commerce services struggle to provide:

B2C
Free new innovative
services will make consumers more
attracted by the physical store and
spend more and better

a touch experience, immediacy of product
availability, advice and services. The Digital
Store is an amplifier of the consumer digital
experience.

Suppliers
Traditional & New Ones

Service Provider
B2B
Monetize
Delegate
Qualified Audience – 360 vision
Lead Generation / Loyalty

€
Enhance
the shopping
experience

VALUE
Strengthen Sellers

Better
consumer
control

Figure 4. The Digital Store Ecosystem.


23

A day in the life of
Imagine the following scenario based on how
Business Mobility can enhance the consumer
experience:
Zoe is travelling with Marie on a well-deserved
vacation. Her friend has an amazing tiny
travel speaker that provides a very high
music quality when plugged directly into
her Samsung smartphone! It was a gift so
her friend doesn’t really know where to buy
it or its price. Zoe immediately launches her
favorite retailer application, which presents
a product description thanks to automatic
image recognition. It is consistent with Zoe’s
budget and available in pink—her favorite
color. Zoe immediately saves it in her wish
list and ‘likes’” it to her Facebook profile. Two
friends on her network have also liked this
product and are very satisfied with it!
The week after, back from vacation, Zoe is in
the airport, travelling with Marc to a business
meeting abroad. She has to meet him at the
boarding gate in 20 minutes. The retailer
application notifies her that the pink tiny travel
speaker is available in a store in the airport.
A ‘For you Zoe only’ one-hour promotional
coupon shows up, giving her a 20 percent
discount.

24

However, Zoe is in a rush; boarding is in 20
minutes. The application told her that the
product checkout time is currently estimated
to be 10 minutes at most. She rushes over
the shop (thanks to the map provided by the
application), finds the tiny travel speaker, adds
it to her shopping basket, checks it out and
redeems the promotional voucher. At the last
moment, Zoe doubts whether the speaker
is compatible with her ‘old’ iPhone 3GS. She
scans the product and scans the description;
it says that the iPhone is compatible, but not
specifically the 3GS. The mobile app indicates
that two sellers are available. She pushes
the HELP button and the apps told her that
Sophie is on her way to help.

Zoe swipes her mobile to pay (without going
to the cash mark) and heads off.
Walking to the boarding gate, Zoe gets a
notification that she has now reached the next
level of loyalty points and can get 20 percent
discount off the next David Guetta show,
which is in her wish list but a bit too expensive.
Immediately, with just a four-digit code, she
buys the tickets on her phone and opts to get
the tickets sent directly sent to her phone.
7.5 minutes later, Zoe arrives at the plane in
time for her flight.

Sophie appears quickly and is super-happy,
empathic and helpful, so Zoé ‘likes’ Sophie in
the application. Sophie has already synced
Zoe’s basket on her seller mobile device and
Zoe had already joined the loyalty program
and registered her loyalty card in mobile
app. This allowed Sophie to access Zoe’s
customer profile and purchase history when
she synced Zoe’s shopping basket, allowing
her to personalize her speech. Using NFC
tap between the two mobile devices, Sophie
shares additional product information with
Zoe.



25

26


Innovation Radars


27

Innovation Radars

2014+ SEP Innovation Radar:
Socio-Cultural
The impact levels of new and emerging macro trends are defined as emerging (likely to drive business needs in the future — keep watching),
through maturing, to burning (you cannot afford to ignore — already driving new business needs).

Changing Attitudes
Towards Work(place)
Digitally Connected Society

Urbanization

Changing Family Unit
Intensive Lifestyles

Eco-Awareness

Community Building

Aging Population

Individualization
Inherent Reliance
on Technology
Information Owned by Many
Multi-Ethnic Society

Emerging issues

Maturing issues

Burning issues
© Atos 2013. All rights reserved.

The terms outlined here are summarized on the following pages and are discussed in greater detail on chapter Innovation Radars in Detail

28


Aging population

Digitally-connected society

Inherent reliance on technology

The aging population constitutes a shift in the
distribution of a country’s population towards
a higher average age. Population aging arises
from two (possibly related) demographic
effects: increasing longevity and declining
fertility.

A digitally connected society is an electronic
grouping of individuals, enabled by the Web,
characterized by common interests. It may
have a distinctive culture and institutions.

Reliance on technology means that our
personal world, and our society, cannot
function without the use of technological
devices. This includes cell phones, debit and
credit cards, computers, the Internet and cars.

Changing attitude towards
work(place)
A phrase that brings the idea of work-life
balance into focus is ‘Work to live, don’t live to
work’. It is also related to the physical location
where work would need to be performed
(home, office, someplace else) and the way
people are (or want to be) managed.

Changing family unit
Over the past couple of decades, particularly
in the West, the traditional family unit has
radically changed and new models have
arisen. There has been a decrease in the
number of children living in families that are
headed by a couple and an increase in those
living in families with a lone parent.

Community building
Community building is directed towards the
creation or enhancement of community
between individuals within a regional area
(such as a neighborhood) or with a common
interest (that may or may not be limited to
geographical boundaries).


Eco-awareness
The green movement (or eco-movement)
is a political and societal movement that
advocates goals, including environmentalism,
sustainability, non-violence and social justice
concerns.

Individualization
Individualization is a term used to describe
a process towards a moral, political or social
outlook that stresses human independence
and the importance of individual self-reliance
and liberty.

Information owned by many
With the first generation of the Internet,
information was provided and owned by
the few for the consumption of the many.
The second generation Internet sees the
many now willing and able to contribute to
the wealth of knowledge and information
appearing within many diverse sources. It is
not easy to either seek out all the information
or influence the impression that it is making.

Intensive lifestyles
The idea of intensive lifestyles relates to work
and the work-life balance of a person and
his or her control over the conditions in the
workplace. It mutually benefits the individual,
business and society when a person’s
personal life is balanced with his or her own
job.

Multi-ethnic society
Multi-ethnic societies, in contrast to monoethnic societies, integrate different ethnic
groups--irrespective of differences in culture,
race and history, under a common social
identity larger than one ‘nation’ in the
conventional sense.

Urbanization
Urbanization is the physical growth of
urban areas as a result of global change.
Urbanization is also defined by the United
Nations as movement of people from rural to
urban areas with population growth equating
to urban migration.

29

Innovation Radars

Economic
The impact levels of new and emerging macro trends are defined as emerging (likely to drive business needs in the future—keep watching), through
maturing, to burning (you cannot afford to ignore — already driving new business needs).

Multi-Sided Markets

Rise of the
Entreployee
Venture
Philanthropy
Shifting Centers of
Economic Activity
Shift to Knowledge-Intensive Industries
Competition for Natural Resources
and Alternative Energy Sources
Ubiquitous Access
to Information

Back-Shoring

Greening Business
Stakeholder Power
Peer-to-Peer Trading
Industry Consolidaton
Knowledge Process
Outsourcing
Cyber Threats
Global Consumer
Markets
Economic Volatility
Global Labor &
Talent Market

Multi-Currency
Monetary
System

De-Commoditization

Burning issues

Maturing issues

Emerging issues


30


Back-shoring

Economic volatility

Industry consolidation

Back-shoring is a countertrend for
Western companies that have off-shored
manufacturing facilities to cheap labor cost
countries. High transportation costs have
made it more economical to back-shore
production activities and automate them, thus
eliminating labor and transportation costs.

An economic downturn relates to a period
of reduced economic activity, also known as
a business cycle contraction. In economics,
the term ‘recession’ describes the reduction
of a country’s GDP for at least two successive
quarters of a year.

Industry consolidation refers to the mergers
or acquisitions of many smaller companies
into much larger ones within specific sectors.
An acquisition, also known as a takeover, is
the buying of one company (the ‘target’) by
another. A merger is similar, but with two
companies coming together with equal status.

Competition for natural resources
and alternative energy sources
As long-term economic growth accelerates,
we are using natural resources and energy
sources at increasing rates. This leads to
increasing competition over needed resources
such as oil, water, energy, grain and raw
materials.

Cyber threats
Computer hacking represents an increasing
threat, especially for large organizations.
Attacks can come from amateur hackers,
terrorist organizations, government agencies
and competitors (industrial espionage).

De-commoditization
Commoditization is a process that transforms
the market for a unique, branded product
into a market based on undifferentiated
price competition. In economic terms, the
market changes from one of monopolistic
competition to one of perfect competition.


Global consumer markets
It is expected that a billion new consumers
will enter the global consumer marketplace
as soon as the last economic downturn
subsides and revived economic growth in
emerging markets pushes consumers beyond
the threshold level of USD 3,700 in annual
household income.

Global labor and talent market
Ongoing shifts in labor and talent will be far
more profound than migration of jobs to
low-wage countries. The shift to knowledgeintensive industries continues to highlight the
importance and scarcity of well-trained talent
with degrees in science, technology and other
technical fields.

Knowledge Process Outsourcing
Unlike traditional business process
outsourcing initiatives, Knowledge Process
Outsourcing (KPO) involves knowledgeintensive business processes that require
significant domain expertise, analytic
skills, and judgment and decision-making
capabilities.

Multi-sided markets
In the economic theory of two-sided markets,
the value flow is made possible by a platform
between two different markets. If one side of
the market grows, it influences the other side
of the market positive, the so called network
effect.

Greening business

Multi-currency monetary system

The concept of, and discussion on, the carbon
footprint originates from the green movement
and has been on the political agenda for
some time. It has recently been picked up by
economists as well, and not just because of
rising energy costs.

As investors and multinationals increase
their exposure to fast-growing emerging
economies, international demand for
developing economy currencies will grow,
making way for a global monetary system
with more than one dominant currency.

31

Peer-to-peer trading

Stakeholder power

People are increasingly buying and selling
directly to and from one another using online
trading systems (platforms). These platforms
allow individual members to complete
financial transactions by using an auction-style
process that lets members offer used or new
products and services for a specific amount or
on a ‘best offer’ basis.

Firms are increasingly influenced by the views
and concerns of stakeholders, anyone that
their business impacts. This includes anyone
in the wider ecosystem that is impacted by
the company: customers, anyone in the value
chain and societies local to their business sites.

Rise of the entreployee
‘Entreployee’ is the term used to describe a
new type of employee who markets his or her
working abilities on his or her own initiative
and who, although formally a dependent
employee, bears the risks that have
traditionally been those of entrepreneurs.

Shifting centers of economic
activity
The world has embarked on a massive
realignment of economic activity as a
consequence of economic liberalization,
technological advances, capital market
developments and demographic shifts.

Ubiquitous access to information
The increasing adoption of 3G smartphones
(such as Apple’s iPhone and Android phones)
is making access to anytime/anywhere
information a reality. Access to information has
therefore become almost universal.

Venture philanthropy
Venture philanthropy (also termed
philanthrocapitalism) is a system that bases
its approach to fulfilling philanthropic goals
on tried and tested concepts and techniques
from venture capital and traditional financial
investment.

Shift to knowledge-intensive
industries
Products and processes are too easily
replicated; automation of simple tasks and
transactions is widespread. Organizations
will need to differentiate themselves through
knowledge relationships with partners and
customers.

32



33

Innovation Radars

Political
The impact levels of new and emerging macro trends are defined as emerging (likely to drive business needs in the future—keep watching), through
maturing, to burning (you cannot afford to ignore—already driving new business needs).

Burning issues

Maturing issues

Emerging issues

Transparency &
Accountability
Government Activism
Hacktivism

E-Democracy

Lean Government
Affordability of Social Security & Services
EU Integration
Green
Politics

Service-Oriented
Protectionism Government
Privacy of
Information

Emerging
Powers

E-Politics


34


Affordability of social security
and services
As the size of the workforce declines, funding
for healthcare and pension assistance will
shrink.

E-democracy
E-democracy covers (online) communication
media that gives citizens a limited ability for
making leaders/politicians responsible for
their actions in the public sphere. It is about
the adoption of electronic technology in the
existing or an improved democratic process.

E-politics
E-politics is a form of direct democracy
that uses information and communication
technologies and strategies for political and
governance processes, along with causerelated fundraising, community building,
lobbying and organizing.

EU integration
EU integration is the process of political,
economic and, in some cases, social and
cultural integration of European states.
Integration is needed to truly operate as a
single market.

Government activism

Protectionism

Government activism or intervention is any
action taken by a government beyond the
basic regulation of its economy or society.
Intervention or activism can be aimed at
a variety of political, societal or economic
objectives.

Protectionism is a policy of protecting
domestic industries and workers against
foreign competition by means of tariffs,
subsidies, import quotas and other such
restrictions or handicaps placed on the
imports of foreign competitors

Green politics

Service-oriented government

Green politics or green ideology is the political
principle that places a great importance on
ecological and environmental goals, and on
achieving these goals through broad-based,
participatory democracy and consensual
decision-making.

Public organizations are struggling with
fundamental challenges. These are worsened
by budget constraints and rising citizen
demands, leaving public services in a position
where they are expected to do more with less.

Hacktivism – alternative
protestation
It is a form of online protest. A hacktivist uses
the same tools and techniques as a hacker,
but does so in order to disrupt services and
bring attention to a political or social cause.

Transparency and accountability
Accountability is an important factor in
securing good governance and, thus, the
legitimacy of public power. Accountability only
enables negative feedback after a decision
or action, whereas transparency also enables
negative feedback before or during a decision
or action.

Lean government
Ideally, government would have fewer rules,
less bureaucracy and fewer public servants.
A leaner government body must be more
effective, this cannot just be about cutbacks.

Emerging powers

Privacy of information

Globalization is driving new dimensions of
power; its definition has extended far beyond
its military connotations to include economics,
resources and technology. In terms of size,
speed and directional flow, the transfer of
global wealth and economic power is without
precedent in modern history.

There is a general expanding volume of
(potentially) sensitive personal information
held, not only in government and business
databases, but also posted by people
themselves (on Facebook for instance).
This is driving public concern about privacy
protection.


35

Innovation Radars

2014+ CxO
Agenda Radar

Mainstream

Business Agility
through IT
Transformation
and Liquid IT

Early adoption
Adolescent
Emerging

Green IT
Analytics
Video Open Innovation
Sustainablity
SoLoMo
Smart Mobility
Social
Big Data
Business
Corporate
Governance and Risk
Business /
IT Alignment

IT/OT Convergence
Emerging Markets Growth

Cloud Services
Asset Management
Servitization

Consumerization of IT
Customer Demands and Intimacy
Lean
Everywhere

Finding and
Retaining Talent

Traceability
and Visibility

Collaborative
Ideas
Management

Aging Workforce

Now

Offshoring
Changes

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4


36


Each trend has been analyzed from three perspectives: potential size of impact on your business; likely time to impact your business and maturity.
The radar diagram provides a pictorial view of our findings, allowing you to quickly understand how disruptive each trend is likely to be and the
actions you might consider taking. Polar co-ordinates have been used to depict the likely time to impact your business along with the potential size
of the impact. Colors are used to represent the maturity of each trend.

``
Now-1 year: look today at how
solutions address need.
`` years: consider potential solutions
2-3
with maybe some pilots.
`` years: understand now and
4+
consider the potential implications and
how these could be addressed.

``
Transformational: likely to require
transformational changes within
organizations.

``
Emerging (Red): mainly expressed by
academia and a very small number of
specialized markets.

``
High: it will have high impact at work
on companies (process, products and
services) and the everyday lives of
users/consumers.

``
Adolescent (Amber): expressed
more widely by analysts and thoughtleaders.

``
Medium: it will impact on people and
organizations, enhancing company’s
process services or the everyday lives
of users and consumers.
``
Low: more likely to require minor
improvements rather than radical
changes.


``
Early adopter (Green): seen more
widely in the markets. Organizations
starting to look for solutions.
``
Mainstream (White): there is a clear
need and many organizations are
implementing solutions.

37

Aging workforce

Business IT alignment

Corporate governance and risk

Baby-boomers, those born between 1946
and 1964, are starting to retire, but for
many continuation of work after the official
retirement age will be a financial necessity.

The majority of IT-enabled business change
still fails to deliver what’s needed at the
expected time and cost. The use of ‘next
practice’ techniques which embrace diversity
rather than artificially simplifying it are much
more likely to achieve success.

Strong governance manages risks but can
also inhibit innovation, and the best balance
for both national finances and corporate
policy is continuously sought. The recent
financial crisis represented a failure of
corporate governance and risk management.

Cloud services

Customer demands and intimacy

Cloud Computing as a delivered service
can be seen as the next generation of utility
computing, which has been providing
processing and storage on an ‘on demand’
basis for many years. It is now seen as the
dominant form of IT service delivery for the
future.

The Internet gives customers more access
to information, more choice and a louder
voice. Retaining customers becomes an
increasingly complex task requiring intimacy
and transparency to ensure their demands
are met.

Analytics
The aim of analytics is to extract knowledge
from data by finding the internal relations
between those data, applying advanced
algorithms. Analytics enables the
understanding of patterns, cause and effect
and prediction in large data sets containing
both structured and unstructured information.

Asset management
Asset management is increasingly a critical
business activity for any asset-owning
organization or enterprise; infrastructure,
transport, manufacturing and chemicals are
classic examples.

Big Data
Big Data describes how you get competitive
advantage from managing the new volumes
of data that will become a concern for every
knowledge company. We are witnessing
an explosive growth of the information
that all facets of humanity are creating and
processing.

Business agility through IT
transformation and Liquid IT
Being large and agile requires increased
integration between the business and IT.
The need for increased business agility and
streamlined business processes in which IT is
no longer the bottleneck to change, has led to
the concept of ‘Liquid IT’.

38

Collaborative ideas management

Emerging markets growth

Collaborative ideas management allows the
right people to get in touch to generate the
ideas, and the right ideas to reach the right
people. It can be key to ensuring that an
innovation program is successful.

A profound shift in global economic power
from West to East is under way with Western
economies playing a diminishing role in the
global economy over time whilst China, India
and other emerging markets such as Brazil
and Russia play an ever-increasing one.

Consumerization of IT

Finding and retaining talent

Consumerization of IT, starting with ‘bringyour-own-device’ (BYOD) and progressing to
‘bring-your-own-application’ in the enterprise is
one of the most hotly debated subjects today.
People increasingly expect tools at work that
are as good and intuitive as those they have at
home, or to bring those tools to work.

Changes in population demographics,
generational differences, education concerns
and differences in quality and depth of skills
are leading to shortfalls of critical skills in all
economies, resulting in increased competition
to recruit and retain the best talent.

Green IT
‘Green IT’ has two major themes: ‘Green for
IT’: IT contributes to sustainable development
by for example a lower carbon footprint;
‘IT for green’: IT to serve green growth by
enabling smarter, lower consumption, greener,
solutions.


IT-OT convergence

Servitization

Social business

IT-OT convergence in manufacturing involves
integrated architecture of Product Lifecycle
Management (PLM), manufacturing execution
(MES) and Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)
systems.

Services are increasingly being employed
as profitable and stable revenue streams to
enhance commoditizing product businesses.
Some leading firms are adopting a ‘solutions’
business model, offering customized solutions
to clients, where manufacturing no longer is a
differentiating process.

Social business includes all the social
computing trends of the last decade and
delivers an integrated vision on how to
use social technology to leverage the
enterprise ecosystem by making use of web
technologies on any device for two way
communication and collaboration.

Smart Mobility

Sustainability

Smart Mobility turns context sensitive
information on a mobile device--such as
where people are, when they are there, what
they are doing there and who they are (and
who they connect with)--into direct and
sustainable business advantage.

Sustainability is now taking center stage
in political, social and economic arenas.
It demands new thinking about how
organizations can ensure that their business
operations thrive rather than just survive in
a world of limited growth and increasingly
limited resources.

Lean everywhere
Reducing enterprise costs and improving
business processes remained high on the
CEO agenda through 2013, with many
CEOs investing in IT for these reasons.
Lean provides a way to make continuous
improvement through removal of waste
and synchronization of processes to provide
balanced throughput, matched to customer
demand.

Offshoring changes
Many Western production institutions have
de-localized parts of their business to the East,
in particular China. There is a concern around
the profitability of these investments as profit
from the sale of these goods is far lower than
if they were made in the West.

Open Innovation
Open Innovation encourages organizations
to seek inspiration from a wider ecosystem
that includes partners, suppliers, customers,
competitors, universities, consumers, and the
many sources of knowledge in today’s widely
connected world.


SoLoMo
Social: leverage social behaviors to expand
the reach and popularity of your service
or application and to collect content
(crowdsourcing).
Local: leverage location information (using
GPS, Wi-Fi or Cell-ID) to increase proximity and
relevance of the content to the user.
Mobile: use mobile as the primary vector
of your service (mobile internet, native app
referenced in app stores), enabling instant
contribution and use.

Traceability and visibility
As workers become more mobile, and
customers want to ensure the safety and
origin of products, traceability will be key for
products—from constituents to consumer—
and for personnel movements and behaviors.

Video
Video will become the de facto means of
communication, collaboration and knowledge
dissemination. This is causing a major change
in ways of working and will have a similarly big
impact on the need for companies to have a
strategy its use, storage and management.

39

Innovation Radars

2014+ Enabling Information
Technologies Radar

Mainstream
Early adoption

Universal Translators

Adolescent

Nanocomputers
AI Enhanced Robots

Emerging

Miniaturized Power

Wireless Power
Context Broker
Semantic Data Integration
Machine-to-Machine
Machine Learning
Serious Gaming
Computer Vision
Privacy Enhancing
Internet
Technologies
Virtual Retinal
of Things Semantic Web
Displays
Semantic Search Engines
Fabric Based
Software Defined
Distributed Social
Computing
Networks
Mesh Networks
Networks
Big Data
Physical Unclonable
Next Generation
Augmented Reality
Processing
Functions
Wireless
Complex
NFC
Communication
Data Visualization
Natural Language
NoSQL
Biometrics
3D LocationAvatars
Plastics
Holographic
Analytics
Natural
Business Process
Transistors
3D Printing
Data Storage
Language
Management
Cloud Orchestration
Processing
Systems
Multi-Touch
Web-Based
Open Source
Peer-to-Peer
Hardware
IPv6
3D Displays

Mobile
Payments

Now

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4


40


Each trend has been analyzed from three perspectives: potential size of impact on your business; likely time to impact your business and maturity.
The radar diagram provides a pictorial view of our findings, allowing you to quickly understand how disruptive each trend is likely to be and the
actions you might consider taking. Polar co-ordinates have been used to depict the likely time to impact your business along with the potential size
of the impact. Colors are used to represent the maturity of each trend.

``
Now-1 year: look today at how
solutions address need.
`` years: consider potential solutions
2-3
with maybe some pilots.
`` years: understand now and
4+
consider the potential implications and
how these could be addressed.

``
Transformational: likely to require
transformation changes within
organizations.

``
Emerging (Red): mainly expressed by
academia and a very small number of
specialized markets.

``
High: it will have high impact at work
on companies (process, products and
services) and people walk of live as
user / consumer.

``
Adolescent (Amber): expressed
more widely by analysts and thoughtleaders.

``
Medium: it will impact people and
organizations, enhancing their
processes and services, or affecting
users’ and consumers’ lives.
``
Low: more likely to require minor
improvements rather than radical
changes.


``
Early adopter (Green): seen more
widely by clients markets. Clients
starting to look for solutions.
``
Mainstream (White): there is a
clear need and many clients are
implementing solutions.

41

3D display

Biometrics

Distributed social networks

Any display device that creates the perception
of depth to the viewer can be described as
a 3D display. 3D perception can be brought
about by rendering a real volume in the air
with light dots (volumetric display). It can also
be artificially created.

Automated use of unique and easy to
measure characteristics of a person to
determine and verify identity. Can be
physiological (such as fingerprints, iris or
veins) or behavioral (such as typing rhythm
or voice).

Social network initiatives are developing social
networking platforms that could be operated
in a federated and distributed mode. Many
projects are federated under the ‘federated
social web’ banner.

3D location-analytics

Business Process Management
Systems

Geographical information systems (GIS)
are systems capable of capturing, storing,
analyzing and displaying information
referenced according to its geographical
location, the next generation also taking the
third dimension into account.

3D printing
3D printing is a manufacturing technology
that is used to build 3D objects. It superposes
layers of material, originally a melted polymer,
with each layer being built using techniques
similar to inkjet printing.

AI enhanced robots
Coupled with robotics, Artificial Intelligence
(AI) enables the creation of realistic
autonomic simulations of physical systems.
The underlying technology is built around
advanced machine learning algorithms.

Augmented reality
A user’s perception of the world is
supplemented with relevant information via a
device (headset or display). The superimposed
information usually includes graphics,
but could also be audio or other sensory
information such as smell.

Big Data processing
The Internet has given rise to global
companies such as Amazon, Facebook,
Google and Twitter. They manage data on a
massive scale and find ways to use it beyond
its original means.

42

Enterprise decision management
and rules

Business Process Management Systems
(BPMS) enable management of all the stages
of business process lifecycle: design, modeling,
execution, monitoring and optimization.

EDM and rules spans enterprise governance
of business decisions and business rules, up
to implementation of business decisions and
business rules supporting flexible business
processes.

Cloud orchestration

Fabric-based computing

Cloud orchestration relates to the connectivity
of IT and business process levels between
cloud environments.

Fabric-based computing aims to provide
scalable and cheap IT resources to many
different users and applications. The fabric is
defined as a physical fully meshed network
of IT resources (CPU, memory, storage and
network).

Complex data visualization
Business Intelligence (BI) tools feature
traditional data visualization capabilities, such
as the ability to generate curves, histograms
or scatterplot from vectorial data; next
generation data visualization covers much
more complex Big Data problems.

Computer vision
Computer systems that are able to gather
information from images and become artificial
vision systems implemented in software and/or
hardware.

Context broker
Context brokers collect and store data, deduce
context and trigger actions based on that
context. They are critical to the delivery of
context-enriched services.

Holographic data storage
Holography records data through the full
3D volume of thick photosensitive storage
medium. In addition, holography allows a
million bits of data to be written and read in
parallel with a single flash of light.

Internet of Things (IoT)
The next revolution following the World Wide
Web; it will provide new bridges between real
life and the virtual world. The Internet will no
longer be merely a network of ‘human brain’,
but will integrate real-life objects, sensors and
physical activities.

IPv6
IPv6 was designed in the 1990’s to address
several deficiencies of IPv4 including address
space, improved security and privacy, and
multicasting.


Machine learning

Nanocomputers

Open source hardware

Machine learning is a subfield of artificial
intelligence concerned with the conception
and design of algorithms that allow computer
systems to ‘learn’ without being explicitly
programmed.

Literally, denotes computing hardware with
fundamental components that measure in the
realm of nanometers.

Open source hardware (OSH) tries to extend
the ideas and methodologies popularized
in open source software development to
hardware development.

Machine-to-Machine
Machine-to-Machine (M2M) technologies link
machines to an information system, generally
to automate existing humanly-performed
operations or to enable new services based
on remote connected devices

Mesh networks
Mesh networks are decentralized, local area
networks, formed by meshes of peer nodes.
Full-mesh has each node connected to every
other node, while partial-mesh has each node
connected only to some nodes.

Miniaturized power
Nanogenerators are energy-harvesting
devices based on highly miniaturized
structures capable of converting ambient
energy, such as kinetic energy, into electric
energy.

Mobile payments
Payments for products or services between
two parties, with a mobile device, such as a
mobile phone, to facilitate the act of paying.

Multi-touch user interface
Multi-touch user interfaces (MTUI) can
recognize many gestures from multiple places
on a device simultaneously, allowing several
users to interact with an application at the
same time or one user to interact at different
points with multiple inputs.


Natural language avatars
Avatars and virtual assistants are the
electronic equivalents of real-world reception
desk staff, designed to help users on
administrative tasks and to locate and browse
information in a friendly, yet effective, way.

Natural-language processing
Natural-language processing (NLP) is the
automatic ability to understand text or audio
speech data and extract valuable information
from it.

Near Field Communication
Near Field Communication (NFC) allows
devices such as mobile phones to
communicate wirelessly over a very short
distance and perform tag or card reading,
card emulation and device-to-device data
exchange.

Next generation wireless
communication
LTE and fifth-generation communications
system (5G) are the next step in wireless
communications. LTE is able to provide a
comprehensive IP solution where voice,
data and streamed multimedia give users an
‘anytime, anywhere’ basis with higher data
rates than previous generations.

Physical unclonable functions
(PUF)
Physically unclonable functions (PUF) can
be seen as ‘hardware biometrics’ or a way to
produce a ‘fingerprint’ of a physical object.
Authentication of a PUF-equipped device
is performed using a challenge-response
protocol.

Plastic transistors
Manufacturing technologies now allow us
to create polymer-based transistors. Latest
advances allow semiconductors to be printed
on various substrates.

Privacy-enhancing technologies
The career and personal life of internet users
could be severely impacted if they are not
cautious enough with the personal data they
(or relatives) make available—through posts,
multimedia content sharing, for instance.

Semantic data integration
Semantic data integration is an umbrella term
for combining heterogeneous data using
open standards and semantic technologies.
Existing and legacy SQL-based solutions are
already being turned into a semantic data
cloud.

NoSQL

Semantic search engines

NoSQL, which stands for Not Only SQL,
refers to a trend in the field of database
management systems that aims to give up
the classical relational model.

Semantic search is based on the notion of
improving search engines by making the
system aware of the meaning (semantics) of
both the searcher query and the content of
the searchable data.

43

Semantic Web

Virtual retinal display

The Semantic Web is an extension of the
Web that aims to be directly processed
by machines. It is based on the idea that
semantic information is explicitly provided and
not inferred in any way.

Virtual retinal display (VRD) entails
broadcasting images directly onto the retina
of the human eye. Lasers and LEDs are used
to project the image. To the user, images and
information will appear as if floating in front of
the eye.

Serious gaming
Any games that do not have entertainment,
enjoyment or fun as their primary purpose.
Serious gaming builds on simulation (to train
by practice) and gamification.

Software defined networks
Network Intelligence aims to address the need
for information visibility and for understanding
real-time traffic. Software defined networks
allow low-level network separation and fast
reconfiguration based on software rules.

Universal translators
Speech recognition, machine translation and
voice synthesis have significantly progressed
and can be combined to deliver universal
translators capable of transforming text or
speech in a language to text or speech in
another one.

44

Web-based peer-to-peer
Peer-to-peer (P2P) network technology
involves creating overlays on top of
established networks. Overlays follow
alternative metrics and addressing schemes to
adapt the search for shared resources among
the connected peers.

Wireless power
Wireless power aims at transferring electric
energy to devices without the use of electric
cords. Some devices, such as electric
toothbrushes, smartphones and computer
mice, can already be powered wirelessly.



45

46


Telecoms, Media
& Technology
Market View


47


Telecoms
Business Imperatives
Ecosystems: drive, do not be
driven

Cash cow: how much money can
you get out?

Last decade’s attempts by Telecoms
companies to safeguard their exclusive
ownership of the customer relationship by
spanning the full services spectrum—from
traditional communication, broadband access,
device sales, media content production
and gaming to payment, banking and web
communities—only rarely led to sustainable
return. The defensive reflex of existing market
players in these domains, and Telecoms
companies missing competencies outside of
their traditional footprint, led to a first rebound.

Today, in all geographies, the revenue from
the voice market is shrinking in both fixed and
mobile, however the broadband data market
is growing in both fixed and mobile. Telecoms
companies are suffering significantly as their
cash cow disappears into the distance, and
they have a limited time to take advantage
of the profit margins voice brings. Margins
of the past are not accessible for current
investments.

Nonetheless, Telecoms companies need to
strengthen their intermediary role in the digital
value chain in order to actively participate in
the evolution of new business models. They
need to re-think partnership models, which
might give them less control over the ultimate
customer relationship but will enable them
to accelerate demand for their core services.
We expect strategic alliances with established
brands in retail, media and entertainment,
information technologies, finance and
automotive to be key success factors in
ensuring a prosperous future for today’s
telecoms service providers.
Finally, telecoms service providers should
increasingly focus on innovation work in
order to explore new business models and
test the ground for value add solutions in the
marketplace. Externalized ‘speedboat’ entities,
such as spin-offs and joint ventures, will be
best suited to compete in the highly dynamic
environment of Open Innovation.

48

Business value: focus on network
excellence
In the uncertain waters of new global
competition and emerging business models
there is one fixed point on the compass of
every network operator: its basic ‘bit pipe’
carrier services. It is the one most sizable
item on the balance sheet and the core,
indisputable value a telecoms company
delivers to the rest of world. Thus, the
importance of network capacity and service
quality will grow in line with the increasing
dependency that economies, governments
and our social lives have on communication.

profitability and creating competitive
advantage. Networks need to be optimized to
efficiently handle the ever growing volumes
of video and peer-to-peer streaming through
intelligent content distribution, encoding
technologies, network optimization or data
offloading strategies. Equally, subscriber policy
and quality of service management needs to
enable better, real-time control over clientspecific service delivery parameters.
Virtual reality applications, 3D and HD video,
IP-TV, online games with demanding real-time
requirements and professional applications
delivered to zero-client desktops from the
Cloud will also create the business case for
monetizing differentiated service levels in that
market segment.
Since the network and network connectivity
layer are vital building blocks for successful
Cloud implementations, the relevance of
network excellence is growing.

Network carriers need to explore next
generation technologies, not only to increase
capacity and customer experience, but also
to implement strategies to turn technical
features and capabilities into flexibly
‘productizable’ service differentiators. On the
path to increasing commoditization of the bit
pipe, intelligent management of the latter will
be of paramount importance for sustaining


Monetization: develop new
models for core telecoms
services
The challenge of the monetization of telecoms
services is a totally different when you look
at emerging, evolving and saturated markets.
While emerging markets are characterized by
high demand and promising growth potential,
it is the wallet size of the average customer
that requires attention when launching
products, calculating subsidies and offering
payment schemes. On the opposite side,
saturated markets in developed geographies
feature extreme competition, high customer
expectations and consumer friendly
regulation. For the latter, we see monetization
opportunities in number of directions:
``
Tiered volume based data tariff schemes:
As data usage soars, due to rich content,
video, peer-to-peer communication and
Web-TV, and, as Telecoms companies
rarely receive payments from such third
party applications, it is a natural for them
to ask for a fair price-for-service scheme.
This is nothing new to the industry, but
should be re-evaluated in order to establish
a new attitude to service value and
differentiation after a few years of ‘all you
can eat’ consumer mentality. At the same
time Telecoms companies are also looking
for third party sponsored content where
the content provider pays for additional
bandwidth needed for good quality viewing,
or customers are offered to pay additional
fee for the duration of a video clip to get
higher bandwidth than defined by their
subscription.


``
Service levels match client usage profile:
Service availability, latency and jitter,
average capacity or peak performance
guarantees and security levels are service
features that matter to customers and
should be seen as niche sources of
revenues. Price elasticity and level of
adoption will differ for customer segments
and implementation costs will need to be
relative. To manage the latter, telecoms
providers need to enforce their interest
regarding SLA management and drive its
standardization in industry organizations,
such as TMF or GSMA.
``
‘Anything connected’ telecoms services:
Enhanced connectivity, almost ubiquitous
mobility, intelligent and autonomous power
supply and the inevitable move to IPv6 are
all building the momentum for the transition
into an anything connected world. The
requirements for the underlying Machineto-Machine communications are going to
differ greatly: smart electricity metering
and health surveillance will have opposing
needs in terms of availability, mobility and
bandwidth. Telecoms companies that
manage to productize adequate service
types will reap the fruits of early market
entry.
``
Ubiquitous ‘all-in’ digital content
delivery: A number of digital goods
delivered by content providers over third
party mobile networks place the consumer
at risk of additional charges. Flat rates
are not the only answer: instead, ‘sending
party pays’—or subscription based pricing
schemes that include any additional
charges—could be implemented by

cooperation between the digital content
provider and the network operator.
Ultimately, such models will help secure a
telecoms company’s revenue share with
over-the-top (OTT) services.
``
Value-based tariff schemes: Increasingly,
operators are offering pricing metrics based
on value—metrics that more closely follow
the usage patterns of the end-user. Through
profiling analysis based on empirical data,
and even end-user interviews, operators are
increasingly offering tariffs based on value.
With LTE, telecoms companies will be able
to manage their networks to give priority to
bandwidth in certain locations, for example.
This could be integrated into new service
bundles.

M2M provides new value-added
services
There will be a ‘one-to-many’ relationship
between an individual and his/her connected
devices. These connected devices will not
all be controlled by the Telecoms service
provider (nor any other industry or player).
Such connected devices could be user
interface devices (such as PCs, tablets,
smartphones or connected TVs), but also
increasingly M2M--mainly metering--devices.
All these devices might have a temporary
situational relevance to the end customer. The
greatest value would be provided to the end
user by correlating and analyzing the data
coming from/generated by these devices in
real time, and acting on it in real-time with new
value-added services.

49

Agility: avoid inflexible BSS/OSS
that slows your pace
Every telecoms provider’s CIO is familiar
with the easy argument that enterprise IT is
constantly behind schedule. It is the Business
and Operations Support Systems (BSS/OSS)
that are the usual suspects. Your company
should be able to respond quickly to the latest
surprise move of the competition, and the
newest genius of corporate marketing should
not need months to bring new products to full
commercial use.
The competition is further increasing along
two dimensions: entry into the market of new
low-cost competition and the innovations
coming from new over-the-top entrants.
Telecoms companies need to be agile to act,
as well as react, in response.
The CIO’s question when it comes to IT
innovation is not about the ‘if’, but rather
about the ‘which first’:

50

``
Technological refresh projects need to be
undertaken to catch-up with state of the
art IT.
`` introduction of new Radio Access
The
Network technologies (that cater for more
bandwidth and providing self-organizing
and optimizing networks) will need full
integration and support of the OSS/BSS in
order to gain the maximum benefits of the
new technologies.

At current stage, IT is in catch-up mode and
needs executive attention and smart budget
allocation, combined with reliable, powerful
partners to execute it. To get the most out of
LTE (the technology that partly has to satisfy
the huge data demand), OSS (and, to a certain
extent, also BSS) needs radical changes: it
needs to support more network technologies
and provide more automation.

``
Innovation pressures for new services,
partnership schemes and wholesale
arrangements need to be accounted for in
the BSS/OSS stack.
`` promise of cost optimizations made
The
by IT virtualization, new enterprise desktop
solutions and Cloud based services cannot
be ignored.
``
Completely new domains of business, such
as e-Health, Smart Grid, app stores, Cloud
offerings, connected home and related
partner ecosystems need to be enabled.



Telecoms
Business Trends
Privacy: strengthen your brand’s
trustworthiness
Our social media engagement, online
commerce, mobile payments, apps usage
and growing number of sensors (monitoring
our location, direction, speed, time, sporting
activities, environmental temperature
and more) leave long trails in the digital
cyberspace. Our usage patterns, buying
preferences and habits are of high interest to
commerce and advertisement companies,
which turn such knowledge into better
placed, more relevant infotainment and
buying suggestions. Moreover, in an ‘anything
connected’ world, personal digital assistants
will provide help in search and discovery,
co-ordination and scheduling, planning
and control in a variety of private and work
situations.
The value of a personalized digital
environment is increasingly being appreciated
by users. As a consequence, we will see
people’s perception about data privacy very
much evolving along the lines of the value
its mere exposure creates. In the future, we
expect users to share privacy information
far beyond today’s boundaries if they obtain
corresponding value in return. At the same
time, they are going to become much
more discriminative about the brands and
institutions they trust. Their loyalty will be
significantly determined by the way their
private data is being used and protected; thus,
the sensitive management of this relationship
should be at the top of companies’ priority list
for the next few years.


Telecoms companies want to be key players
in the ecosystem that is forming around the
personal data economy. They are using the
trust they have built to position themselves
positively next to the over-the-top data
companies.
Irrespective of the value that enterprises offer
in return for private data, stringent protection
against fraudulent use by third parties remains
a basic condition for a trustful brand. High
standards of data privacy and IT security
management have to be established and kept
at all times by telecoms companies so as not
to put this vital asset at risk.

An uneven recovery
Since its deep financial crisis in 2008/2009,
the world has witnessed a fragile and uneven
recovery with major developed economies
only slowly increasing their pace of growth.
The indications for 2013 were for a further
slow-down across Europe; however the
rest of the world was expected to hold on
to a healthy level of growth, offering sound
business potential for the telecommunication
industry.

In a macroeconomic context:
`` US market is still growing, mainly with
The
smartphones.
`` expect to see frontier economies
We
(China, India and Brazil should not be called
emerging anymore) clearly drive global
telecoms market growth. Although the
BRIC countries are reaching higher mobile
penetration, the usage of smartphones—the
driver behind high data usage—is a different
issue. India is quite different from China
or Brazil: in India there is a rapid uptake of
mobile communications, partly driven by
low-end mobile devices.
``
Africa is evolving in a similar way to India.
Saturated markets will continue to struggle
with the dragging ARPU levels of a slowly
increasing customer base. In Europe
smartphones are replacing traditional mobiles
in significant numbers.

51

Web giants will drive the digital
evolution
Undoubtedly, the buzz around Google, Apple,
Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and the like will
continue to flood the industry headlines
over the next years. Disruptive innovators
will spark further new developments in the
digital world, expanding its footprint in our
private and professional lives. New habits of
interpersonal communication, a new definition
of ‘social’ competence, a growing gamization
and the need for always being in touch, from
anywhere: all this and more creates excellent
revenue opportunities for the advertisement
and digital merchandise industry. Clearly,
companies engaged in this space are the new
age winners.
Despite telecoms service providers still
struggling to place their stakes in this field of
play, such developments are good news to
them because the digital business and lifestyle
can only be kept alive on the back of reliable
telecoms network operators. Data transport
and connectivity businesses are on their way
to becoming a utility service: commoditized,
but highly critical to the public and the global
economy. To keep their positions, telecoms
companies are going to need to make
heavy investments into new infrastructure
technologies and to seek expansion into
frontier markets. The addition of national
regulatory incentives is expected to be a
catalyst for this process.

52

No winner to be expected (yet) in
the race for dominance over the
connected home
While mobility is being talked about on a
worldwide scale, people’s homes remain
a strategic battlefield for a share of the
consumer’s attention. The gaming industry will
continue to place new generation consoles
into the center of the gamer’s entertainment
experience and foster the adoption of ever
new human-to-machine interfaces, like Kinetic
or Wii U. Strong online gamer communities
will readily adopt new services such as video
and audio calls (is Microsoft going to include
Skype into its next Xbox?), instant messaging,
blogging and voting and also video-ondemand, catch-up TV, HD and 3D TV on their
games consoles. Equally, Pay-TV companies
are going to offer new set-top-boxes with the
connectivity and intelligence to select and
display high quality media content from a
variety of sources in accordance with our
personal preference profile.
Broadband providers will be exploring
ways to bridge the gap between the simple
internet router and a multifunctional media
and entertainment hub: a gap that makes
the difference between a commodity bit
pipe provider and a digital lifestyle company.
Beyond that, the digital home hub has the
potential to play a key role in the future
connected home, supporting energy and
security management solutions, medical
surveillance and assisted living services. We
expect telecoms companies to engage more
intensely in these domains, with dedicated
business units and innovative market
approaches.

However, the mobile phone is for many
people the default communication device
at home and, as such, data off-load via Wi-Fi
offers new opportunities for mobile operators.
In the first place if off-loads heavy data
streams, but by detecting a mobile phone in
its home zone it will allow operators to offer
services that fits the needs at home.

The mobile revolution continues
People’s increasing mobility has been one of
the main trends over the past decades and,
consequently, is nothing new; however, the
way that intelligent devices will further ease
and drive our mobility is still in its infancy. Ever
‘smarter’ phones and ‘easier’ computers are
going to further converge to a new device
category: the smart mobile. Telephony is
just one of many functions that it provides,
with number crunching not one of its main
features either.
Today, smart mobiles already encompass
a voice and video phone, text messenger,
camera, music and multimedia player, games
console, navigation system, video beamer,
remote control, personal information manager,
social communities and enterprise application
clients, plus a few more features—all under
one umbrella. Although specialized devices
provide higher performance, one simple
argument makes the case for the smart
mobile: the best camera is the one that you
are carrying with you whenever it is needed!


Next, we expect to see increasing integration
and automation of all these features into a
more intelligent personal assistant concept.
Further, new sensors are going to enrich the
context-awareness of the smart mobile. An
enhanced ability to set personal preferences
and define simple work instructions (content
filters, alarms for friends in the neighborhood,
blacklisting of certain brand’s advertisements,
automatic searches for product offers, to
name a few) and a tighter coupling with our
work environment are going to increase the
spectrum of tasks our digital assistant will be
able to execute on our behalf.
The convenience factor is going to further
drive demand for lighter, more flexible and
durable mobiles; mobile device sales have
outpaced stationary PCs. Substantial efforts
have been spent on the development of
high-capacity batteries, the standardization of
induction-based, wireless charging solutions
and the active energy management of the
mobile device. Apps revenues will continue
to soar irrespective of the technology they
are implemented in. Tablets, extended by an
optional keyboard, placed into a virtualized,
zero-client IT environment and guarded by
maturing security appliances, will enable the
proliferation of the Bring Your Own Device
(BYOD) concept into the business context.
Ultimately, smart mobiles are going to
transform into a personalized user interface
for future smart Clouds.


‘Social competence’ is being
newly defined
Always in touch, informed of the latest
community news in real-time, following
brands and friends on Twitter, writing blogs
and producing own videos on YouTube: this
is what millions associate today with the
term ‘social competence’. The new ‘social’ is
not confined by geographical boundaries, is
always on, non-discriminative and easy to use.
It offers offer quick paths to self-exploration
and provides a great stage for self-expression.
Without any doubt, social communities will
continue to thrive.
As a new quality, communication in the digital
space has two important characteristics: firstly,
it provides easy access to huge audiences
all over the world and, secondly, it is being
constantly documented in lasting, digital
formats. By means of semantic search and
data mining, valuable knowledge is being
derived about sentiments, trends and priorities
in the Web.
Telecoms companies will accelerate the
adoption of social media marketing and
monitoring, as well as community based
sales and service, substantially. The social
phenomenon will help increase visibility of
the end-customer. Improved trend prediction
models have the potential to help reduce
churn, better campaign targeting will improve
cross-selling and telecoms companies will
have the opportunity to target friends of
customers as potential new customers.

Telecoms companies will become
more serious about their Cloud
ambitions
We expect to see telecoms service providers
adopt the cloud business as a market
expansion priority, and for that they need
to build IT capability. Big market players like
NTT Communications, Deutsche Telekom, BT
and FT-Orange, along with smaller enterprise
solutions providers, have built up capability
over the last decade through a critical mass of
IT related business. Others are building strong
IT partnerships, ensuring they maintain some
ownership.
The convergence of mobile, fixed and internet
provider’s operations and the ever growing
‘IT-zation’ of telecoms technologies as a whole,
strengthen the case for telecoms companies’
strategic expansion into IT related business.
At present, telecoms companies offer a
portfolio of enterprise and corporate services
ranging from desktop services to managed
storage and data centers operations. For
the next step they will need to respond to
the fast march of Google, Amazon, Dropbox
and the likes, who are conquering the
consumer customer base with sticky cloudbased services that are easy to use, globally
accessible, highly available and, beyond all,
inexpensive. This is why we expect to witness
some acquisitions of mid-sized IT players
or partnerships with IT players by telecoms
companies in the near future.

53

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